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Play Analysis Methodology

Dr. Alfred Kjemperud The Bridge Group AS

Dr. Alfred Kjemperud 1

Definitions
Petroleum system.
A group of plays within a given geographical area having a common source rock.

Play.
A geographically and stratigraphically delimited area where common geological factors exist in order that petroleum accumulation can occur.

Prospect.
A potential petroleum trap. With a mappable reservoir rock volume.
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Petroleum system
Limit of mature and active Source Play 1 (unconfirmed) Play 2 (confirmed)

Prospect

Field/Discovery Reservoir/Seal distribution

Geographical extent of Petroleum System Source Rock Distribution

Dr. Alfred Kjemperud

Modified from R. Birtles, 2000

Level of Knowledge
LOK
Very High

Basin Description
The basin is very well explored and has a multitude of discoveries in all plays. Most plays are regarded as mature but some will be regarded as emerging. A large proportion of the basin is covered by 3D seismic. The success rate is on a decreasing trend

Methodology
Mature fields Material balance Decline analysis New fields and discoveries Quantitative Reservoir Simulations. Probabilistic volumetric calculations Play and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level A

High

The basin is well explored and has several discoveries. Most of the plays are confirmed, but some are still unconfirmed. Some 3D seismic surveys exist outside of the discoveries and the 2D grid is dense. The success rate is on an increasing trend The basin is moderately explored. At least one play is confirmed, but most plays are unconfirmed. Only 2D seismic data exists outside of the discoveries Little exploration has taken place. No plays are confirmed. Only a few regional seismic lines or a very coarse grid of 2D seismic exists None or very little exploration has taken place in the basin. No or little seismic exists.

New fields and discoveries Probabilistic volumetric calculations Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level B Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level C Plays Play analysis level C Delphi and Analogue methods

Moderate

Low

Very Low

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Play Analysis Level


Play analysis level A Description
The analysis is based on a very good understanding of the basin. Structure maps are available for the main source intervals and reservoir intervals. Quantitative basin modeling (3D or 2D or a grid of 1D well and pseudowell analysis) makes up the basis for maturation profiles and hydrocarbon migration paths. The play area is known and can be calculated with high confidence. The estimation of the average prospect size and the total number of prospects are based on data from the basin. The analysis is based on a good to fair understanding of the basin. Simplified structure maps of the major source rock and reservoir intervals are available Several 1D basin models make up the basis for maturation profiles. Migration pathways are estimated The estimation of the average prospect size and the total number of prospects are based on data from the basin The analysis is based on a poor understanding of the basin. Structure maps are not available. The areal distribution of source and reservoir are estimated based on key seismic lines and wells. Single well basin modeling make up the basis for maturation profiles. Migration pathways are estimated The estimation of the average prospect size and the total number of prospects are based on data from analogue basin

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Play Families and Plays


Play Families
Identified by first order processes
Extentional tectonism Compressional tectonism Depositional processes Basin compaction

Play
Unique closure generating process
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Modified from Duff and Hall 1996

Compressional Thrust
AN-1: Shallow long wavelength anticlines independent of faults or thrust plane AN-2: Thrust fault dependant anticlines AN-3: Deep-seated, steep buckle folds near detachment surface AN-4: Inverted autochthon

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Reef Build-up
RB-1: Reef build-up with associated deposits RB-2: Calciclastic gravity flow deposits

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Extentional Block
FB-1: Reservoir in hanging wall block juxtapositioned to sealing rock in footwall FB-2: Pinch out inverted by block faulting FB-3: Erosional products from crest of fault block FB-4: Drape above fault block creating 4-way closure FB-5: Truncated fault block

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Basement Drape
BD-1: Four-way closure (anticline) draping basement high

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Mud diapir

MD-1: Diapir induced anticline. Trap independent of faulting MD-2: Diapir induced normal faults crucial for trapping MD-3: Closure created by drag along diapir wall MD-4: Pinch out inverted by mud flow MD-5: Gravity flow deposits induced by diapir movement

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Stratigraphic plays
Subfamily: Shallow deposits (s) STs-1: Fluvial channel deposits STs-2: Deltaic deposits STs_3: Shelfal deposits (bars) Subfamily: Deep deposits (d) STd-1: Proximal turbidite pinch out STd-2: Basin floor turbidite mound STd-3: Distal turbidite pinch out

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Play Fairway
The play fairway is the area within the basin where the specific geological attributes necessary for the existence of a hydrocarbon accumulation exist. The extent of the play fairway is initially determined by the depositional or erosional limits of the gross reservoir rock and then modified by other play elements

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Common Risk Segment Mapping


Colour Description The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is high (1.00.6, low risk) The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is moderate (0.6-0.4) The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is low (0.4-0.0, high risk)
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Green

Yellow

Red

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CRS Risk
QUANTITATIVE PROBABILITY RANGE Description Qualitative risk assessment (CRS maps) Further data which strengthen the model prediction to Play/prospect will probably be affirmed by drilling Low risk (green)

0.8-1.0

0.6-0.8

Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that play/prospect may possibly be affirmed by subsequent data acquisition, including drilling Little or no available data on which to base a model. Play/prospect may be proved valid or invalid with equal likelihood. Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that model may possibly be denied by subsequent data acquisition, including drilling Further data which strengthen the model prediction to Play/prospect will probably be denied by drilling

0.4-0.6

Moderate risk (yellow)

0.2-0.4

High risk (red)

0.0-0.2

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Common Risk Maps (CRS)


Reservoir presence Effective reservoir

Dr. Alfred Kjemperud

Grant et al. 1996

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CRS maps
Charge Top Seal

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Grant et al. 1996

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Composite Common Risk Segment Map (CCRS)

Dr. Alfred Kjemperud

Grant et al. 1996

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Play Fairway Map

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Grant et al. 1996

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Calculation of P&L number


Area for area-number factor calculation (high LOK)
n = no.of mapped P&L/area

Green area (Prob.: 0.6-1.0)


Max. no. P&L = Area * n * 1.0 Mean no. P&L = Area * n * 0.8 Min. No. P&L = Area * n * 0.6

Yellow area (Prob.: 0.4-0.6)


Max. no. P&L = Area * n * 0.6 Mean no. P&L = Area * n * 0.5 Min. no. P&L = Area * n * 0.4

Prospect Lead Seismic lines Total no.of P&L


No. in green area + No in yellow area

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Play Analysis in GeoX Number of prospects

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Prospect volume
The value of the largest known prospect or discovery in the play can be plotted at 0.1% cummulative probability A reasonable economic minimum size can be plotted at 95% cummulative probability

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Lognormal Probability Plot


100

To be entered into GeoX.


Area of closure (directly) Reservoir thickness = Rock Volume/Areaof closure (Can be entered as 7 fractiles or as a predefined statistical distribution)

10

Expected (P50)

e ea l um Ar Vo

0.1 1

5 10 25

50 75 90 95 99

99.9

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Prospect volume

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Field sizes
Field Sizes 1000

Field No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11

Field Ranked Fractile Size Field Size % 140 200 8.3 % 22 140 16.7 % 45 105 25.0 % 8 75 33.3 % 15 60 41.7 % 200 45 50.0 % 12 30 58.3 % 30 22 66.7 % 105 15 75.0 % 60 12 83.3 % 75 8 91.7 % 65 Av.

100

10

Fractile %= Field #/(No. of fields+1)


1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

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Exercise 1
Make a field size distribution plot on lognormal probability paper based on the field sizes given to the right (numbers in million bbl) What is the average field size? What is the median (P50) field size? What is the chance of finding at least a 100 million bbl field given a 25% success ratio?
Field No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Field Arranged Size by size Formula* 150 20 40 5 15 320 10 30 90 55 70 Fractile (%)

* Formula: Rank number/Number of fields+1

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Solution 1
Average Field Size = 73 Median Field Size = 40 Probability of Success = 6.5%

No of Fields 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Field Ranked Fractile Size Field Size % 150 320 8,3 % 20 150 16,7 % 40 90 25,0 % 5 70 33,3 % 15 55 41,7 % 320 40 50,0 % 10 30 58,3 % 30 20 66,7 % 90 15 75,0 % 55 10 83,3 % 70 5 91,7 %

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Overall features

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Play Analysis in GeoX

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Reservoir equations

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Oil FVF vs. Depth


Oil FVF vs. depth (Oil density sensitivity)
2.40 Oil gravity (degr. API) 2.20 30 35 2.00 40 Gas gravity: 0.7 Temp. Grad.: 3 degr C/100m 1.80 Bo 1.60 1.40 1.20 Vasquez-Beggs Equation (JPT, June 1980) (Oil gravity > 30 degr. API)
75 0 10 00 12 50 15 00 17 50 20 00 22 50 25 00 27 50 30 00 32 50 35 00 37 50 40 00 42 50 45 00 47 50 50 00 52 50 55 00 57 50 60 00 62 50 65 00 67 50 70 00 50 0

1.00
25 0

Depth (m)

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GOR vs. Depth


GOR vs. depth (Oil density sensitivity)
450 400 Degr. API Max

350

300 GOR (m3/m3)

40 35 30

Mode Min

250

Gas gravity: 0.7 Temp. Grad.: 3 degr C/100m

200

150

100 Vasquez-Beggs Equation (JPT, June 1980) (Oil gravity > 30 degr. API)

50

0
75 0 10 00 12 50 15 00 17 50 20 00 22 50 25 00 27 50 30 00 32 50 35 00 37 50 40 00 42 50 45 00 47 50 50 00 52 50 55 00 57 50 60 00 62 50 65 00 67 50 70 00 25 0 50 0

Depth (m)

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Play Analysis in GeoX

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Trap geometric multiplier

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