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Definitions
Petroleum system.
A group of plays within a given geographical area having a common source rock.
Play.
A geographically and stratigraphically delimited area where common geological factors exist in order that petroleum accumulation can occur.
Prospect.
A potential petroleum trap. With a mappable reservoir rock volume.
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud 2 2
Petroleum system
Limit of mature and active Source Play 1 (unconfirmed) Play 2 (confirmed)
Prospect
Level of Knowledge
LOK
Very High
Basin Description
The basin is very well explored and has a multitude of discoveries in all plays. Most plays are regarded as mature but some will be regarded as emerging. A large proportion of the basin is covered by 3D seismic. The success rate is on a decreasing trend
Methodology
Mature fields Material balance Decline analysis New fields and discoveries Quantitative Reservoir Simulations. Probabilistic volumetric calculations Play and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level A
High
The basin is well explored and has several discoveries. Most of the plays are confirmed, but some are still unconfirmed. Some 3D seismic surveys exist outside of the discoveries and the 2D grid is dense. The success rate is on an increasing trend The basin is moderately explored. At least one play is confirmed, but most plays are unconfirmed. Only 2D seismic data exists outside of the discoveries Little exploration has taken place. No plays are confirmed. Only a few regional seismic lines or a very coarse grid of 2D seismic exists None or very little exploration has taken place in the basin. No or little seismic exists.
New fields and discoveries Probabilistic volumetric calculations Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level B Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level C Plays Play analysis level C Delphi and Analogue methods
Moderate
Low
Very Low
Play
Unique closure generating process
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Modified from Duff and Hall 1996
Compressional Thrust
AN-1: Shallow long wavelength anticlines independent of faults or thrust plane AN-2: Thrust fault dependant anticlines AN-3: Deep-seated, steep buckle folds near detachment surface AN-4: Inverted autochthon
Reef Build-up
RB-1: Reef build-up with associated deposits RB-2: Calciclastic gravity flow deposits
Extentional Block
FB-1: Reservoir in hanging wall block juxtapositioned to sealing rock in footwall FB-2: Pinch out inverted by block faulting FB-3: Erosional products from crest of fault block FB-4: Drape above fault block creating 4-way closure FB-5: Truncated fault block
Basement Drape
BD-1: Four-way closure (anticline) draping basement high
10 10
Mud diapir
MD-1: Diapir induced anticline. Trap independent of faulting MD-2: Diapir induced normal faults crucial for trapping MD-3: Closure created by drag along diapir wall MD-4: Pinch out inverted by mud flow MD-5: Gravity flow deposits induced by diapir movement
11 11
Stratigraphic plays
Subfamily: Shallow deposits (s) STs-1: Fluvial channel deposits STs-2: Deltaic deposits STs_3: Shelfal deposits (bars) Subfamily: Deep deposits (d) STd-1: Proximal turbidite pinch out STd-2: Basin floor turbidite mound STd-3: Distal turbidite pinch out
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Play Fairway
The play fairway is the area within the basin where the specific geological attributes necessary for the existence of a hydrocarbon accumulation exist. The extent of the play fairway is initially determined by the depositional or erosional limits of the gross reservoir rock and then modified by other play elements
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Green
Yellow
Red
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CRS Risk
QUANTITATIVE PROBABILITY RANGE Description Qualitative risk assessment (CRS maps) Further data which strengthen the model prediction to Play/prospect will probably be affirmed by drilling Low risk (green)
0.8-1.0
0.6-0.8
Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that play/prospect may possibly be affirmed by subsequent data acquisition, including drilling Little or no available data on which to base a model. Play/prospect may be proved valid or invalid with equal likelihood. Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that model may possibly be denied by subsequent data acquisition, including drilling Further data which strengthen the model prediction to Play/prospect will probably be denied by drilling
0.4-0.6
0.2-0.4
0.0-0.2
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CRS maps
Charge Top Seal
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18 18
19 19
20 20
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Prospect volume
The value of the largest known prospect or discovery in the play can be plotted at 0.1% cummulative probability A reasonable economic minimum size can be plotted at 95% cummulative probability
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10
Expected (P50)
e ea l um Ar Vo
0.1 1
5 10 25
50 75 90 95 99
99.9
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Prospect volume
24 24
Field sizes
Field Sizes 1000
Field No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11
Field Ranked Fractile Size Field Size % 140 200 8.3 % 22 140 16.7 % 45 105 25.0 % 8 75 33.3 % 15 60 41.7 % 200 45 50.0 % 12 30 58.3 % 30 22 66.7 % 105 15 75.0 % 60 12 83.3 % 75 8 91.7 % 65 Av.
100
10
25 25
Exercise 1
Make a field size distribution plot on lognormal probability paper based on the field sizes given to the right (numbers in million bbl) What is the average field size? What is the median (P50) field size? What is the chance of finding at least a 100 million bbl field given a 25% success ratio?
Field No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Field Arranged Size by size Formula* 150 20 40 5 15 320 10 30 90 55 70 Fractile (%)
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Solution 1
Average Field Size = 73 Median Field Size = 40 Probability of Success = 6.5%
No of Fields 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Field Ranked Fractile Size Field Size % 150 320 8,3 % 20 150 16,7 % 40 90 25,0 % 5 70 33,3 % 15 55 41,7 % 320 40 50,0 % 10 30 58,3 % 30 20 66,7 % 90 15 75,0 % 55 10 83,3 % 70 5 91,7 %
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Overall features
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29 29
Reservoir equations
30 30
1.00
25 0
Depth (m)
31 31
350
40 35 30
Mode Min
250
200
150
100 Vasquez-Beggs Equation (JPT, June 1980) (Oil gravity > 30 degr. API)
50
0
75 0 10 00 12 50 15 00 17 50 20 00 22 50 25 00 27 50 30 00 32 50 35 00 37 50 40 00 42 50 45 00 47 50 50 00 52 50 55 00 57 50 60 00 62 50 65 00 67 50 70 00 25 0 50 0
Depth (m)
32 32
33 33
34 34