Running head: FUTURE

Post University: Future of Online Learning Your Name Post University Your Instructor

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Introduction Post University is a for-profit educational organization with an online program for nontraditional students. With the help of educational technology, economics, budget, public policy, and demographics, this organization hopes to be on the forefront of online education with the help of futuring in regards to scanning and various scenarios. Post University will be a pillar of the online community and will adapt to challenges and opportunities to come in 2017. Past and Present The future of education, specifically higher education, is online learning. At the forefront of online education is Post University. Since the schools founding in 1890, it has prided itself on guiding, training, and providing educational needs to students looking to prosper in their careers. (Post University, Inc., 2013). Starting as a shorthand school, to a business college, then a junior college, and in anticipation of growth, partnered with Teikyo Japan, forming Teikyo Post University, this grew into an official four year college, which became Post University in 2004, and finally a university with an established accelerated degree program over the internet in 1996 (Post University, Inc., 2013). Post has become the largest provider of fully online higher education programs in Connecticut with a rapidly growing presence throughout the United States and internationally all while maintaining its commitment to preparing today's students for tomorrow's careers (Post University, Inc., 2013). The main population that Post reaches starts as young as 18 years old to as old as 69 years old, the age of their eldest graduate in the class of 2012 (Mroz, 2012). Within that age group, Post Universitys online program has the potential of reaching 234,564,071 people in the United States ages 18 years and over (Howden & Meyer, 2011). Although it is a

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growing university, realistically Post will not reach that number, however, accelerated degree programs offered online will continue to grow, not just at Post, but all over the world. Post Universitys mission statement is to provide students with the knowledge, personal skills and experiences required to become leaders in their chosen careers. We prepare students to become confident, competent, and competitive participants in the global market place (Post University, Inc., 2013). This statement reaches the 12,208 student body population, of which 11,084 are enrolled in the online program (Post University, Inc., 2012). Post Universitys Class of 2012 had a total of 794 graduates of which 689 were part of the online program from 44 states as well as 7 international students from Canada, China, and South Africa (Mroz, 2012). With that mission statement in mind along with the numbers from the most recent graduation it looks as though the university is successfully serving their students as well as faculty because without either, that graduation rate would not have been what it was. Educational Technology An educational technology trend that will play a role in online learning at Post University in 2017 is the consumption of multiple technologies by young people. It appears to be increasingly the case that young people have a distinctly multi-tasking relationship with new technologies, and a multiple consumption approach to owning them (Becta, 2008, p. 8). The younger generation today has a very strong relationship with technological advances, which is not surprising. What is surprising is that how far reaching this advancement has gone (Becta, 2008, p. 8). Economics, Budget, and Public Policy The tuition trend stands to have the greatest influence over the vision of education for Post University in 2017. For many institutions, tuition is the primary source of annual revenue

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and can represent up to 80% or more of the operating budget (Betts, Hartman et al. 2009). Students are constantly dealing with the conflicts of rising tuition and by 2017, if the cost keeps increasing, students may face an even bigger problem, reaching their aggregate loan limits. The National Center for Educational Statistics (2009) research shows that in the 2007-2008 school year, 65.6% of all undergraduate students received some form of government aid and 79.5% of them were attending full-time. Once these students reach their lifetime loan limit they will have to pay their remaining expenses out-of-pocket. The costs of tuition by 2017 will determine whether changes need to be made within government support or if tuition costs need to be revisited according to the economic trends in that time period. This leads to the next trend that plays a significant role; government funding to state university systems. State universities are traditionally funded by state tax revenue, and with several large states with notorious university systems such as California and New York expecting deficits in the billions next year, funding for higher education will become increasingly scarce (Betts, Hartman & Oxholm, II, 2009). As the funds are reduced, so will the quality and innovation of the state university system, leading students to seek high-quality education opportunities elsewhere. This is where for-profit universities like Post will come in. Due the investment background, money that is generated by the university is reinvested into the quality of the courses offered, including promoting research teams to develop new degree plans, and leading the way in the online university revolution that is occurring around the nation (National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education, 2012). As states continue to cut funds, it will be critical for for-profit universities to fill the void with high quality, cutting edge education. The largest challenge for online universities is offering degrees that are high quality, which is where Post Universitys advantage truly factors in.

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Demographics In developing Post Universitys vision for 2017, the scenario in which college is currently viewed will be out the out. Traditional campuses may not disappear by 2017, but it could be the start of a new vision of what college is and where it gets us. Trends in demographics support that scenario quite well, most significantly, the growth of nontraditional or adult learners. The day when a high school graduate can transition directly to college may be passing us by. A down economy, more expensive college tuition, and increased need for employment during and immediately after high school, continue to curb the number of students able to make this transition. The result is continuing education after a delay. In 2002, a full 73 percent of students may be viewed as nontraditional (Choy, 2002). Ross-Gordon (2011) describes the nontraditional category as containing one of the following: entry to college after a least one year following high school, having dependents, being a single parent, being employed full time, being financially independent, attending part time, and not having a high school diploma. As we continue to see stressors in society increase, the adult learner, as well as the nontraditional student, will dominate college enrollments. By 2017, schools that have failed to adapt to this changing demographic will struggle. Schools like Post, with strong online offerings and good reputations, will flourish as their target demographic continues to grow. With the adult learner and nontraditional student population growth, the high school completion rate has also increased significantly. There has been a continual decrease in the percentage of students who dropped out of high school between 1975 and 2006 (National Center for Education Statistics, 2007). Decades ago, completing high school was the educational goal for many Americans. Now it is merely a step to reaching the goal of completing college. As high school completion rates increase, college enrollment will increase. This is the

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continuation of the shift from high school to college being the minimum requirement by societal employment standards. It is generally accepted that high school graduation and normal progression are meaningful measures of educational success (Yates, 2008). The trend of educational success suggests that by 2017, college attendance will have increased and college rates will increase as a result. Simply put, there will be more available students from both high school and non-traditional routes available and seeking colleges that can cater to their specific needs. Futuring with Scenarios An easy way to look at scenarios is to think of trends, while keeping in mind that most trends change and they may not proceed in the fashion that we expected them to, which is where intuition comes in to develop new scenarios (Cornish, 2004, p.93). Preparing for the future is not an easy task with the endless realms of possibilities. Tomorrow may seem clear, but looking too far ahead may lead to apprehensiveness. Four years of time includes incalculable circumstances, especially when technology is factored in, there are scenarios that cannot even be weighed in on yet, but organizations, especially educational organizations, need to prepare for it. Scenarios start ...by clarifying the decisions to be made, rigorously challenging the mental maps that shape peoples perceptions, and hunting and gathering information from various sources (Mietzner & Reger, 2005). Being specific is certainly positive, and will give a clear focus and path to work from. The broadness of multiple scenarios will give a much needed perspective rather than a single idea. The greatest con of scenarios would be to not think of the future whatsoever; having something to work from is better than nothing at all. The future of education is upon the nation and the world as a whole. Factoring in numerous scenarios would be in the best interest of educational organizations because they need to be prepared for inevitable changes.

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Futuring with Scanning In 2030, a connectivist world will allow students to learn as readily outside a classroom as within it (Berry, 2010, p.18). One way this conclusion could have been drawn is through the practice of scanning, which is based on the surveying of media outlets such as newspapers, magazines, and websites, to link changes that may impact the future. Scanning is thought of as the effort to identify and understand those phenomena or aspects of the world that are most relevant to the people or groups who need this information for important decisions (Cornish, 2004, p.81). There is only so much analysis and planning to evaluate significant changes. Scanning can help draw conclusions, and like scenarios, help educational organizations understand the future. Post University 2017 Futuring, using scenarios and scanning, can yield significant benefits. In education, where public opinion, government support, and business pressures often collide, being prepared for the future is critical. Sobrero (2004) states that effective futuring will lead to higher quality decision-making, more proactive modes of anticipating change, superior ranking of program priorities, and increased abilities to position assets to address emerging issues. Post University will stand as the premier online university in the United States; admired and copied by numerous other schools. It will establish that position primarily by being a leader in the trend of educating non-traditional students (dominating the marketplace), and proactively solving funding issues positioned to cripple the collegiate world. Post University has already established itself as a quality, credible online university with a dedication to being a pillar in the community, a leader in non-traditional education, and an innovator with funding for education through a commitment to change and an understanding of

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where to focus. Understanding the demographic trends that shape education will ensure that Post University will remain attractive to non-traditional students as well as the growing population of high school graduates. In regards to funding, Post will use their creative resources, strength of enrollment revenues, reputation for innovation, and for-profit freedoms, to develop funding and aid scenarios for students who, through the government, cannot receive enough aid to go to college. Challenges and Opportunities One of the greatest challenges Post University faces in the coming years is competition. With the competitiveness of online education, Post needs to focus the future scenario on a constant, increasing revenue stream, and with the increase in competition there may be a negative effect to such revenue. However, there is a plus side to competition, it does bring added attention to the industry and if online education can stay strong in the public eye then it could, in turn, increase revenue for Post. With added attention there could potentially be another challenge; reputation. If the reputation is bad then that will certainly affect enrollments, but Post University built their reputation on quality and it is important that this is kept in focus. If quality is compromised then so is enrollment; opportunity lies in reputation. The industrys reputation as a whole also has the potential to devalue online education and with Post Universitys goal of becoming the pillar of online education, the industry needs to remain honest and ethical. Government funding also poses a challenge to the future of online education, especially if funding is decreased or cut completely. However, if funding is increased then Post would potentially see higher enrollment. Enrollments, of course, will be affected in either scenario. The way society views college is quite possibly the most significant challenge that Post University faces. A poor job market and a challenged economy will change what a family feels is a priority

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and that could lead to a change in the overall value of college. Training on job sites rather than paying for someone with a college education may prove to be more profitable for employers, but Post could build business partnerships that could benefit their graduates. Preparing for Change Being prepared for change can make or break an organization; it can be slow and unmanageable as an organization grows. Post University needs to commit to future change and handle it in a way that will be successful. How they can prepare: 1. Commit to a vision of Post University in 2017 or more specifically, branding strategy that builds on their reputation for innovation, being technologically driven, and a nontraditional student friendly university. 2. Invest in technology to make sure the online presence reflects the image they want to present. 3. Offer more courses to attract a greater number of students. 4. Make content and subject matter of courses more relevant to the growing non-traditional student population to make their learning more realistic. 5. Develop scholarships and/or private loans to better assist those students who have difficulties with government aid. If these changes do not occur to prepare for the future of online education at Post University then they will be overlooked and other schools will go on to be the premier provider of online education. Call to Action For Post University to acquire their desired image in 2017 they need to act today. To start on the path to 2017 they first need to develop a scholarship fund for non-traditional learners to

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have access to. With Post being a for-profit school, their executives can meet and decide what portion of earnings or investments that will go towards this scholarship fund each fiscal year as well as decide the parameters that must be met to qualify for these scholarships. Since funding and tuition seems to be a growing problem, a commitment needs to be made to promote not only Post University, but education as a whole. Another scenario that should be implemented immediately to prepare for 2017 is a tuition discount of some sort to undergraduate students who maintain a minimum grade point average. This would promote enrollment as well as build a solid reputation and retention rate for Post, which is very important for an online school that wants to maintain credibility. These steps will continue to build on the quality and reputation that Post University wants to maintain and build and with 2017 right around the corner, changes need to be made today.

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References Becta. (2008). Research to support the delivery and development of Harnessing Technology: Next Generation Learning 200814. Retrieved from Analysis of emerging trends affecting the use of technology in education: http://post.blackboard.com/bbcswebdav/pid1207177-dt-content-rid13402293_1/courses/EDU505.901198020059/Unit%205/Analysis%20of%20Emerging% 20Trends%20Research%20Report.pdf Berry, B. (2010). The Teachers of 2030: Creating a Student-Centered Profession for the 21st Century. Center for Teaching Quality. Betts, K., Hartman, K., & Oxholm, II, C. (2009). Re-examining & repositioning higher education: Twenty economic and demographic factors driving online and blended program enrollments. Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks, 13(4), 3-23. Choy, Susan. 2002. Findings from the Condition of Education 2002: Nontraditional Undergraduates. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2002/analyses/nontraditional/index.asp Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The Explorations of the Future. Bethesda: World Future Society. Howden, L. M., & Meyer, J. A. (2011, May). Age and Sex Composition: 2010. Retrieved from Census: http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning, 220-239. Mroz, P. D. (2012, April 30). Some Post University 2012 graduation statistics. Retrieved from Post University Blog: http://blog.post.edu/2012/04/university-2012-graduationstatistics.html National Center for Education Statistics. (2007), Digest of education statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. (2009). Web tables: undergraduate financial aid estimates by type of institution in 2007-2008. (NCES2009-201). Retrieved February 14, 2013, from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2009/2009201.pdf National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education. (2012). For-profit schools. Retrieved from http://www.education.com/reference/article/Ref_What_profit_schools/?page=2 Post University, Inc. (2012). Post University: Online Fast Facts. Retrieved from Post University: http://www.post.edu/online/downloads/adp_fast_facts.pdf

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Post University, Inc. (2013, January). About Post University: History. Retrieved from Post University: http://www.post.edu/maincampus/history.shtml Post University, Inc. (2013, January). About Post University: Mission Statement. Retrieved from Post University: http://www.post.edu/maincampus/mission.shtml Ross-Gordon, J. M. (2011). Research on adult learners: supporting the needs of a student population that is no longer nontraditional. [Article]. Peer Review, 13(1), 26-29. Sobrero, P. M. (2004), Futuring: The implementation of anticipatory excellence. Journal of Extension [On-line], 42(2). Available at: http://www.joe.org/joe/2004april/index.shtml Yates, J. R. (2008). Demographic imperatives for educational reform for culturally and linguistically diverse students. [Article]. Multiple Voices for Ethnically Diverse Exceptional Learners, 4-12.

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