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RIL results were above street and our expectations. Net profit up by 23.9% YoY to Rs.55bn on back of higher refining and petchem margins Gross refining margins (GRMs) stand at $9.6/bbl, flat QoQ, better than our/street expectations of US$9/8.7/bbl Petchem EBIT surprise positively at Rs.19.3bn, up 11% QoQ, due to better margins. KG D6 production at 24mmscmd, continued its declining trend, down 15% QoQ Recent spate of E&P approvals augur well for company but still time for results to show up. Maintain HOLD rating with TP of Rs.834 with cautious view on refining and petchem
EPS Chg FY13E/FY14E (%) Target Price change (%) Nifty Sensex
Price Performance
(%) Absolute Rel. to Nifty
Source: Bloomberg
1M 8 5
3M 11 4
6M 12M 26 8 15 -5
Refining EBIDTA at Rs.45bn were better than our /street expectations mainly on the back of better GRMs. Sequentially GRMs remained flat at $9.6/bbl, as against our and street expectations of $9/bbl / $8.7/bbl. Refining EBIT grew 2.6% QoQ to Rs 36.1bn. Although the benchmark Singapore refining margins declined in Q3FY13 averaging at US$7/bbl as against US$9.3/bbl QoQ. This is on account of sharp decline in fuel oil spreads to US$(18)/bbl (US$12/bbl QoQ) which forms higher proportion of Singapore GRM product slate and better LPG/Naphtha spreads which form higher proportion of RILs product slate. Also increase in spread between light-heavy crude oil by US$1.5/bbl to US$4/bbl has helped RIL GRMs for the quarter. Refinery throughput for Dec12Qtr stood at 17.5mntons flat QoQ.
750
-8
700
-14
650 Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
-20 Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg
Stock Details
Sector
Bloomberg Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value(Rs) No of shares o/s (mn) 52 Week H/L
EBIDTA up 8.7% QoQ, as sustained GRM and petchem business drives the show
Sequentially EBIDTA for the quarter stood at Rs.83.7bn up 8.7% QoQ, mainly on account of sustained GRM and better petchem margins. Petchem EBIDTA at Rs.23bn surprised positively. Petchem EBIT was up 11.3% QoQ at Rs 19.3.bn, mainly on the back sharp improvement in PP, PX and MEG margins that offset the weak polyester margins. E&P EBIDTA at about Rs.13bn was inline with expectations. Decline in gas production from KG basin also led to decline in E&P EBIT to Rs.5.9bn down 31.9% QoQ and 54.4% YoY. KG D6 production for the quarter stood at 24mmscmd v/s 28.5mmscmd in Q2FY13.
Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn) 2,948/ 54,665 Daily Avg Volume (No of sh) Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn)
3,174,906 48.2
Jagdish Meghnani jagdish.meghnani@emkayglobal.com +91-22-66242285 Dhaval Joshi dhaval.joshi@emkayglobal.com +91-22-66121282 Rohit Gupta rohit.gupta@emkayglobal.com +91-22-66242417
(Rsbn)
(Rs) % chg 62.0 67.8 68.3 72.1 -0.4 9.3 0.8 5.6
Result Update
Emkay
Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Financials Rs mn Q3FY12 Revenue Expenditure as % of sales Consumption of RM as % of sales Employee Cost as % of sales Other expenditure as % of sales EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Other Income Interest PBT Total Tax Adjusted PAT (Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI APAT after MI Extra ordinary items Reported PAT Reported EPS Margins (%) EBIDTA EBIT EBT PAT Effective Tax rate
Source: Company
Result Update
Q4FY12 851820 786190 92.3 730880 85.8 5970 0.7 49340 5.8 65630 26590 39040 22950 7680 54310 11950 42360 0 42360 0 42360 12.9
Q1FY13 918750 851280 92.7 785110 85.5 8470 0.9 57700 6.3 67470 24340 43130 19040 7840 54330 9600 44730 0 44730 0 44730 13.7
Q2FY13 903350 826300 91.5 760660 84.2 8440 0.9 57200 6.3 77050 22770 54280 21120 7370 68030 14270 53760 0 53760 0 53760 16.6
Q3FY13 938860 855130 91.1 790030 84.1 8630 0.9 56470 6.0 83730 24570 59160 17400 8060 68500 13480 55020 0 55020 0 55020 17
YoY (%) 10.3 9.8 8.5 28.4 29.4 14.9 -4.4 25.5 1.3 16.1 19.4 3.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 25.0 (bps)
QoQ (%) 9mth FY13 9mth FY12 3.9 3.5 3.9 2.3 -1.3 8.7 7.9 9.0 -17.6 9.4 0.7 -5.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 (bps) 39 29 -23 14 -130 8.3 5.7 6.9 5.6 19.6 11.1 7.5 8.3 6.5 22.2 2760960 2532710 91.7 2335800 84.6 25540 0.9 171370 5.5 228250 71680 156570 57560 23270 190860 37350 153510 0 153510 0 153510 30.3 2447220 2176670 88.9 2022940 82.7 22650 0.9 131080 6.4 270550 87340 183210 38970 18990 203190 45150 158040 0 158040 0 158040 34.7
YoY (%) 12.8 16.4 15.5 12.8 30.7 -15.6 -17.9 -14.5 47.7 22.5 -6.1 -17.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -12.7 (bps) -278.8 -181.6 -139.0 -89.8 -265.1
851350 778500 91.4 728130 85.5 6720 0.8 43650 5.1 72850 25700 47150 17170 6940 57380 12980 44400 0 44400 0 44400 13.6
36 76 56 88 -294
KG D6 update
Drilling operation commenced in KG-D6 G2 development well part of OFDP for satellite-1 D1-D3 : critical work for booster compressor and MEG upgradation has started and will address the decline in reservoir pressure and enhance the recovery D26 (MA) : Critical works for FPSO compressor modification, drilling and completion of additional gas well, evaluation of workovers has commenced to augment the production Maintenance shut down of 6 days was successfully completed during the quarter
Concept validation and FEED underway for R-Series / OFDP (Satellite-1) Development plan(s) submission based on integrated concept targeted for 4Q FY13 for R-Series and other satellites Proposal for drilling MJ1 well submitted - targeting deeper sediments in the existing D1-D3 ML area
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 2: Upstream updates
Result Update
Source: Company
Cumulative Investment of $5.2bn ($4.8bn end of Q2FY13) incurred in shale JV Q3FY13 revenue of $172.2mn (2Q FY13 119mn) and EBIDTA of $123.3mn (Q2FY13 $102mn) Reliance share of production at 82.4 BCFe YTD 13 and 32.3BCFe in Q3FY13, growth of 15% as 73wells were put in production this quarter.
Exhibit 3: Pioneer shale JV Q1FY13 Wells drilled during the quarter Total wells drilled Wells fraced during the quarter Total wells fraced Wells going online during the quarter Total wells online Total production during the quarter (BCFe) RIL's share of gross production during the quarter(BCFe) Capex during the quarter ($ bn) Total Capex ($ bn)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Exhibit 4: Chevron shale JV Q1FY13 Wells drilled during the quarter Total wells drilled Wells fraced during the quarter Total wells fraced Wells going online during the quarter Total wells online Total production during the quarter (BCFe) RIL's share of gross production during the quarter(BCFe) Capex during the quarter ($ bn) Total Capex ($ bn)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 5: Carrizo shale JV Q1FY13 Wells drilled during the quarter Total wells drilled Wells fraced during the quarter Total wells fraced Wells going online during the quarter Total wells online Total production during the quarter (BCFe) RIL's share of gross production during the quarter(BCFe) Capex during the quarter ($ bn) Total Capex ($ bn)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Result Update
10 51 13 31 9 21 6 3 0.1 0.7
Exhibit 6: Overall progress for shale JVs Q1FY13 Wells drilled during the quarter Total wells drilled Wells fraced during the quarter Total wells fraced Wells going online during the quarter Total wells online Total production during the quarter (BCFe) RIL's share of gross production during the quarter(BCFe) RILs share of EBITDA for the quarter ($ mn) RILs share of EBITDA for YTD ($ mn) Capex during the quarter ($ bn) Total Capex ($ bn)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3.2 0.8 Q1FY12 6.3 4.7 2 Q2FY12 4.2 2.8 Q3FY12 7.9 4.6 3.1 Q4FY12
514
`
10.5 5 3 Q1FY13
16.3
400 300
200 100 0
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
NGL
Source: Company
Condensate
Gas
Source: Company
Emkay Research
Q3FY13
Reliance Industries
Result Update
We introduce FY15E earnings with expected EPS of Rs.72.1. YoY increase in earning of 5.5% is on account of start of petchem capacities and increased contribution from shale gas business. While FY15 would be the full year for PFY/PTY/PET capacities to contribute to earnings, PX/PTA/MEG capacities are expected to start in 2HFY15.
Exhibit 9: Segmental Profitability
400 350 300 Rs. bn. 250 150 100 50 0 FY12 Refining Oil & Gas shale JV FY13E Petrochem Others FY14E FY15E Oil & Gas domestic Rs. 200 347 371 324 327
61
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 11: Valuation matrix Valuation Table Refining EBIDTA EV EV Petrochemical EBIDTA EV EV Rs mn Rs bn US$bn Rs/share E&P Existing E&P KG-D1-D3 KG Oil NEC CBM KG D3 Shale gas Rs/share Other investments Rs/share Rs/share 121192 727 Rs mn Rs bn US$bn Rs/share 144697 868 17
Result Update
Remark
Valued petrochemical business of RIL at 6x EBIDTA FY14 248 Factored in decline of 10% in EBIDTA from FY12 14
26 Existing production of oil and gas Valuing 6.2TCF of recoverable reserve based on DCF 70 basis. 7.0 20.7 Based on recoverable reserves of 2.4TCF. 9.6 Valued 3TCF at 50% recovery rate at EV/boe $2.5/boe 24.3 2.8TCF @ 60% recovery rate at EV/boe of $3/boe Valuing 12TCF of reserves with 50% recovery @ 51.6 $3/boe 209.2 71.7 Based on book value of investments 8.1 Consolidated cash balance 834
Rs/share
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 12: Segmental revenue Q3FY12 Petrochem % QoQ % YoY EBIT % QoQ % YoY % Margin Refining % QoQ % YoY EBIT % QoQ % YoY % Margin Oil and Gas % QoQ % YoY EBIT % QoQ % YoY % Margin Others % QoQ % YoY EBIT % QoQ % YoY % Margin Total EBIT
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Result Update
Q4FY12 214120 8.2 17.7 21740 0.8 -17.2 10.2 762110 -0.7 21.5 16960 0.7 -32.4 2.2 26090 -7.9 -36.4 9510 -26.5 -39.4 36.5 2600 25.0 50.3 70 -22.2 -22.2 2.7 48280
Q1FY13 218390 2.0 18.9 17560 -19.2 -20.7 8.0 853830 12.0 15.9 21510 26.8 -32.8 2.5 25080 -3.9 -35.6 9720 2.2 -34.0 38.8 2480 -4.6 5.5 10 -85.7 -87.5 0.4 48800
Q2FY13 220580 1.0 4.7 17400 -0.9 -28.2 7.9 838780 -1.8 23.2 35440 64.8 15.3 4.2 22540 -10.1 -36.7 8660 -10.9 -43.4 38.4 1680 -32.3 -67.1 80 700.0 -20.0 4.8 61580
Q3FY13 220530 0.0 11.5 19370 11.3 -10.2 8.8 866410 3.3 12.9 36150 2.0 114.5 4.2 19210 -14.8 -32.2 5900 -31.9 -54.4 30.7 1760 4.8 -15.4 770 862.5 755.6 43.8 62190
197810 -6.1 23.9 21570 -10.9 -11.2 10.9 767380 12.7 46.1 16850 -45.2 -30.8 2.2 28320 -20.5 -32.2 12940 -15.5 -14.0 45.7 2080 -59.2 15.6 90 -10.0 0.0 4.3 51450
Exhibit 13: Petrochemical production ('000 tonnes) Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Polymers YoY (%) QoQ (%) Polyesters YoY (%) QoQ (%) Polyesters intermediates YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Source: Company
Q3 FY12 1200000 9.1 9.1 375000 -16.5 -9.4 1200000 0.0 0.0
Q4 FY12 1100000 10.0 -8.3 500000 25.0 33.3 1200000 9.1 0.0
Q1 FY13 1101000 0.1 0.1 415000 1.0 -17.0 1200000 0.0 0.0
Q2 FY13 1101000 0.1 0.0 420000 1.4 1.2 1200000 0.0 0.0
Q3 FY13 1098000 -8.5 -0.3 365000 -2.7 -13.1 1200000 0.0 0.0
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Result Update
55
51
50
41
36
32
Mn Tonn
45
17.6 29 16.8
24
120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13
(%)
Petrochem (LHS)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Refining(LHS)
Petrochem
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Refining
E&P
Others
$/bbl
1Q FY09
3Q FY09
1Q FY10
3Q FY10
1Q FY11
3Q FY13
Q1 FY12
Q3 FY12
Q1 FY13
Difference
Source: Company, Emkay Research
RIL GRM
Singapore GRM
Emkay Research
Q3 FY13
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 19: Refinery capacities coming online in 2013 Company Location Indian Oil Corporation (Paradeep Refinery) Sarnia, Ontario Motiva Enterprises LLCPort Arthur, Tex. Sinopec Maoming refinery CNPC-Pengzhou ConocoPhillips-Borger Valero Energy Corp.-Sunray TNK-BP-Saratov Sinochem/Kuwait Petroleum Quanzhou Sinopec-Yangz Saudi Aramco/Total-Jubail Gross Capacity Additions
Source: Emkay Research, Industry
Result Update
Region Asia Pacific N.America N.America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific N.America N.America FSU Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Middle East
Capacity (kb/d) Comments 301 To commission around Dec 2013 250 325 To start in early 2013 240 To start in early 2013 200 To start in early 2013 50 25 30 240 To start in June13 160 To start by end of 2013 400 To start in June13 2221
India Canada USA China China USA USA Russia China China Saudi Arabia
Emkay Research
Reliance Industries
Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Equity share capital Reserves & surplus Net worth Minority Interest Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Loan Funds Net deferred tax liability Total Liabilities Gross Block Less: Depreciation Net block Capital work in progress Investment Current Assets Inventories Sundry debtors Cash & bank balance Loans & advances Other current assets Current lia & Prov Current liabilities Provisions Net current assets Misc. exp Total Assets FY12A 30 1,279 1,308 0 510 317 826 116 2,251 1,710 716 994 254 228 1,401 467 169 565 199 0 626 579 47 775 0 2,251 FY13E 30 1,446 1,476 0 747 81 827 117 2,420 1,730 816 914 454 228 1,668 484 133 851 199 0 843 779 63 825 0 2,420 FY14E 30 1,639 1,669 0 645 40 685 122 2,475 1,750 917 833 999 228 1,185 432 129 424 199 0 769 705 64 416 0 2,475 FY15E 30 1,844 1,874 0 643 73 716 128 2,717 1,770 1,029 741 1,004 228 1,496 418 136 742 199 0 751 686 65 744 0 2,717
Cash Flow
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) PBT (Ex-Other income) Depreciation Interest Provided Other Non-Cash items Chg in working cap Tax paid Operating Cashflow Capital expenditure Free Cash Flow Other income Investments Investing Cashflow Equity Capital Raised Loans Taken / (Repaid) Interest Paid Dividend paid (incl tax) Income from investments Others Financing Cashflow Net chg in cash Opening cash position Closing cash position FY12A 198 123 31 -59 -99 57 202 400 601 59 -62 396 0 -15 -31 29 0 -366 -383 214 351 565 FY13E 196 100 31 -74 237 52 527 -220 307 74 0 -146 0 1 -31 28 0 -94 -96 285 565 851 FY14E 211 100 21 -67 -12 57 267 -565 -298 67 0 -498 0 -143 -21 28 0 -60 -196 -427 851 424 FY15E 230 112 29 -61 -5 58 302 -25 277 61 0 36 0 31 -29 28 0 -50 -20 318 424 742
Key Ratios
Y/E Mar Profitability (%) EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROCE ROE RoIC Per Share Data (Rs) EPS CEPS BVPS DPS Valuations (x) PER P/CEPS P/BV EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Gearing Ratio (x) Net Debt/ Equity Net Debt/EBIDTA Working Cap Cycle (days) 0.0 0.1 62.8 -0.2 -0.8 80.7 0.0 0.1 69.3 -0.1 -0.7 65.9 14.5 9.0 2.2 0.7 7.4 0.9 13.3 9.1 2.0 0.6 7.1 0.8 13.2 9.1 1.7 0.8 7.9 0.8 12.5 8.4 1.6 0.7 6.3 0.8 62.0 100.1 405.4 7.8 67.8 98.9 457.2 7.4 68.3 99.4 516.9 7.4 72.1 106.9 580.4 7.4 9.8 5.6 12.4 14.6 16.5 9.1 6.0 12.9 15.7 21.7 10.2 6.8 12.2 14.0 27.0 11.6 7.3 12.3 13.1 33.0 FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
Emkay Research
10
Reliance Industries
Result Update
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