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Environ Monit Assess (2008) 143:147–159

DOI 10.1007/s10661-007-9964-z

Modelling vegetation greenness responses to climate


variability in a Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystem
Nazzareno Diodato & Gianni Bellocchi

Received: 30 April 2007 / Accepted: 27 August 2007 / Published online: 6 November 2007
# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007

Abstract This work presents a modelling study (1972–1995). The analysis of long-term anomalies
where monthly-based climate data are used to indicated a positive trend of NDVI over time,
estimate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index consistent with the air temperature increase registered
(NDVI). The latter is a measure of vegetation in the same period.
greenness, usually derived from satellite-driven infor-
mation. A model was developed to link NDVI data to Keywords Air temperature . Modelling .
rainfall and temperature measures. The test area was a Rainfall occurrence . Satellite data .
3×3 km grid centred to the top of Monte Pino hill Vegetation greenness
(Southern Italy), for which multi-year (from 1996 to
2004) climate and satellite-derived NDVI data were
available. The simulated NDVI data compared well Introduction
with the remote-sensed measurements (e.g. modelling
efficiency ∼0.80), thus showing a strong linking Plant communities are key regulators of energy,
between vegetation greenness and climate patterns in carbon and water exchange between atmosphere,
spite of the many disturbances exerted from farming. vegetation and soil (Dale et al. 2000; Osborne 2004;
The model was used to reconstruct an extended series Pettorelli et al. 2005). For this reason, the monitoring
of monthly NDVI values for a period antecedent 1996 of plant ecology at various spatial scales (from local
biomes to global ecosystems) and over long-time
scales (from decades to centuries) forms an important
area of current research. Satellite-borne sensors data
N. Diodato (*)
are available since 1980s for monitoring biomass
Monte Pino Met Research Observatory, across the Earth’s surface (Kidwell 1995; Vogelmann
TEMS Network-Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites et al. 2001; Friedl et al. 2002). A range of vegetation
(FAO-United Nations), indices based on remote sensing data have been used
via Contrada Monte Pino,
82100 Benevento, Italy
to monitor vegetation (Bannari et al. 1995). The most
e-mail: scodalabdiodato@gmail.com widely adopted is the Normalized Difference Vegeta-
tion Index (NDVI; Tucker 1979), employed to assess
G. Bellocchi whether the target being observed from satellite
Agrichiana Farming, Abbadia di Montepulciano,
Via di Sciarti n. 33/A,
imagery contains live green vegetation or not (e.g.
53040 Siena, Italy Wickham et al. 2000). In satellite images, acquired
e-mail: g.bellocchi@isci.it data in the red (RED) and near-infrared (NIR)

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