Philippine Poverty in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector

Drafted March 2013 by Edmundo Enderez

Under Pres. Aquinos administration that promotes the Straight Path of governance, several changes for the better have occurred. While the level of corruption has been reduced and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate shows an increasing trend despite the continuing global recession, poverty level (self-rated poverty by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and the official poverty incidence by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) has continued to level off and appeared to slightly increase in 2012. The significant increase in the incidence of hunger jibes with the decreasing contribution of the agriculture sector to the GDP that makes poverty level difficult to address. Among the 3 sectors of the economy, it is the agriculture and fisheries sector that remains underdeveloped making the farmers and fisherfolk suffer from too much poverty with population poverty incidence of 36.7% and 41.4%, respectively, as compared with the national population poverty incidence of 26.5% out of the total population of 90.17 million in 2009. The P-Noy administrations thrust to address poverty is massive investment in infrastructure, agriculture and tourism. 1. Graph below shows the trend during the period 1980-2012 of different variables such as poverty incidence, self-rated poverty, agriculture share to the GDP, GDP growth rates and corruption perception index (CPI) by Transparency International. The Graph indicates the following relationship, to wit: a. Agriculture share to the GDP gradually decreased from 25 percent in 1980 to 20 percent in 2003 while there was a decrease in population poverty incidence from 34.2 percent in 1980 to 24.9 in 2003. The significant increase in the GDP share of the service sector made possible the reduction of poverty incidence despite decrease in GDP share of the agri sector. But the further decrease of agri GDP from 20 percent to 11 percent between 2003 and 2012 resulted to the increase in population poverty incidence from 23.9 percent in 2003 to 26.5 percent in 2009. Key Economic Indicators (data from various sources)

b. As shown in the Graph above, during the period 1980-2012, the GDP growth rate shows a pattern of increasing trend from an average of 1.9 percent in 1983 to an average of less than 6.3 percent in 2012.

Higher average growth rate between 2003 and 2012 at almost 5 percent did not result to decreasing trend in poverty incidence. . 2. There is a high degree of correlation at negative 0.85 which means that as the self-rated poverty decreases, the hunger incidence increases as shown in Graph below. This is based on the 1998-2012 data from the SWS as presented in Graph below. One reason is that the agricultural production growth is decreasing as shown by the fact that agriculture share to the GDP started to significantly decreased from 20% in 2000-2003 to 11-12.8% in 2011.

3. Graph below shows that, after 2003, self-rated poverty has leveled-off and despite the improvement in the corruption perception index from 26 in 2011 to 34 in 2012, self-rated poverty further increased from 49% in 2011 to 52% in 2012.

4. Graph below shows that the general trend of increasing GDP growth rate since 1998, there is likewise the general trend of decreasing self-rated poverty. But degree of hunger also increases.

5. Among the 3 major islands, it is Mindanao that has the highest average of incidence of hunger since 1998 as clearly shown in Graph below. 6.

Graph below shows that the corruption perception index improved from 2.4 in 2010 to 3.6 in 2012 that jibes with increasing GDP growth rate, but self-rated poverty (SWS surveys) also increased from 4.8 percent in 2010 to 5.2 percent in 2012. This indicates that the present and future administration should go beyond anticorruption drive and higher growth driven by the service sector.

7. The Table below indicates that out of total population in 2009, there were 1.61 million fishers or 25% of 6.43 million which is the number of farmers and fisherfolk in the country.

8. Graph below is the NSCBs 2009 latest data on population poverty by province. The average for the 3 major islands are 19 percent for Luzon, 35 percent for Visayas and 40 percent for Mindanao. Given the increasing trend of the self-rated poverty by SWS surveys between 2009 and 2012, the official population poverty incidence could have increased further. In poverty reduction, priority should be given to Mindanao followed by Visayas.

9. The 2009 Poverty Incidence Map by the NSCB shows the colored areas from green which indicates the lowest percent population poverty incidence at 0-10 percent to red which indicates highest poverty incidence at 60.1 to 97.5 percent. One can easily see that Luzon has the least poverty level while Mindanao is the most poverty-stricken area. .

10. The countrys 2011 GDP composition by sectors are as follows: 12.6 percent (agriculture), 31.4 percent (industry) and 55.8 percent (service). In Mindanao, the service sector has the highest share in Davao region at 51.6 percent followed by Caraga at 47.2, Zamboanga peninsula at 44.2, Northern Mindanao at 41.8, Soccsksargen at 38.5 and ARMM at 32. The agricultural sector has the highest share in ARMM at 63 percent followed by Soccsksargen at 30.2, Northern Mindanao at 28, Zamboanga peninsula at 27.7, Caraga at 21.6 and Davao at 18.9. ARMM has the highest level of underdevelopment and the lowest GDP growth rate from 2.3 percent in 2010 to -1.0 percent in 2011. In terms of population poverty incidence, the highest is Caraga at 47.8 percent followed by ARMMs 45.9, Zamboangas 43.1, N. Mindanaos 39.6, Soccsksargens 35.7 and Davaos 31.3. In agricultural development, priority should be given to ARMM followed by Soccsksargen and Northern Mindanao. But in terms of fisheries development, Zamboanga peninsula particularly Zamboanga del Norte where marine fish catch (sardine or tamban and roundscad or galunggong) has dropped significantly after 2010 should be given the focus.

11. Based on the data presented in the above Graph, certain relationships can be determined as follows: a. At western Mindanao, ARMM (part of which is Sulu) with 2nd highest population incidence at 45.9% and Zambo peninsula with 3rd highest population poverty incidence at 43.1 experienced significant in 2011 GDP growth rate from 2.3 to negative 1.0 and 3.6 to 0.! %, respectively. In ARMM, agriculture

contributes a very high 63% of the total GDP but the very 5% share of industry indicating imbalanced agro-industrial development leads to high poverty and decreasing GDP growth rate. Underdevelopment and high poverty level in ARMM are expected to exacerbate the worsening Sabah conflict. b. In Zamboanga peninsula, while there is apparent improvement in the catch of sardine (tamban) due to the tamban fishing ban, it could be the declining total marine fish catch that contributed much to the declining GDP growth. c. While at eastern Mindanao, Caraga has the highest population poverty incidence, it experienced the highest GDP growth rate from 7.4% in 2010 to 9.6% in 2011. Economic growth benefits may have redounded to the benefit of big mining companies. d. Davao region and Soccsksargen have the lowest population poverty incidence at 31.3% and 35.7% and with GDP growth of 4.1% and 4%, respectively. The two regions which are located in central southern Mindanao have well developed agriculture (big plantations) and fisheries (tuna fishing and canning). e. Northern Mindanao is a growth center region which includes Cagayan de Oro and Iligan which makes it the 3rd lowest in population poverty incidence. 12. Agriculture and Fisheries production

a. Fisheries is a sub-sector of the countrys agriculture sector. Fisheries products refer to fish, shells shellfish and plants (seaweeds). These are produced by catching, gathering and culturing. Graph below shows that the highest fisheries production come from (1) seaweeds followed by (2) marine municipal catch, (3) commercial catch and the (4) culture of fish, shells and shellfish. Since 2003, fisheries production increased significantly until 2010. But after the 2010 El Nino occurrence, commercial and municipal catch decreased significantly due to the occurrence of La Nina in 2011 when phytoplankton growth in the sea was very much reduced. Fish catch continued to decrease in 2012 despite the implementation of fisheries management both by the government and NGOs under different approaches due to combined factors, namely: (1) overfishing, (2) decreasing fish carrying capacity due to destruction of the fish habitat like mangrove, seagrass and corals and (3) climate change or El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This only indicates that the Philippines which has very high poverty level particularly in the rural or agri-fisheries areas, there is a need to go beyond fisheries management. This is being addressed through P-Noy administrations plan on infra-tourism-agricultural development. However, the country should not only develop its manpower (public and private) but also increase the number being lower than those of Indonesia and other ASEAN countries and much lower than those of advanced countries. In fact, the inadequate number and quality of extension workers in agri-fisheries are part of the reasons for the poor performance of the agri-fisheries sector. b. It is only the aqua-fish production that continued to increase but by only 3% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012. The establishment of the Southeast Asia Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC) for Aquaculture in Iloilo in the 1970s that caters to the needs of ASEAN countries ensures the continuing increase in the countrys aquaculture production. But then this is much lower than those of the neighboring countries which must be addressed by the government. This should be addressed by the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization (AFM) Act of 1997. For 2011-2017 the AFM Plan will ensure that all DAs regional field units, agencies, bureaus and offices will have an action program that is cohesive, reinforcing and consistent with the Philippine Development Plan (PDP), AFMA and other national policy directives. . . The AFM Plan will be utilized by the agri-fisheries sector as an instrument to sharply focus programs, projects and activities towards modernizing the agriculture and

fisheries sector. Is the AFM Plan for the fisheries sub-sector workable given the fact that the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) is just an adjunct of DA.

c. The DA and its BFAR given their level of capacities for decades have been faced with problems and opportunities that they can not fully solve and tap. Hence, agriculture and fisheries production growth rate was very much less than the national level GDP growth rate between 2009 and 2012 as shown in Graph below. Agriculture growth appears to be increasing from negative growth in 2009 to positive growth of 2.46% in 2011 and 1.94% in 2011. This level of growth is an indicator that the agricultural sector will really suffer from economic difficulties. And the fisheries sub-sector growth rate has been decreasing from 3% in 2009 down to negative 4% in 2011 and negative 2.57% in 2012. It is no wonder that prices of fish has increased at the rate higher than those of other food commodities. This is an indication that the coastal communities particularly the fisherfolk continue to suffer from more economic difficulties.

13. The Philippines is the 3rd most overfished country among ASEAN countries led by Myanmar and followed by Vietnam as shown in the Table below. Thailand which has the SEAFDEC station for fish capture is the least overfished whose % of total catch to MSY is 67%. This means that Thailand with higher GDP per capita and lower poverty level has its fisheries management working properly. On the other hand countries with lower GDP per capita and therefore with higher poverty level like the Philippines and Myanmar have higher rate of fisheries exploitation. But Vietnam whose poverty level is much lower than that of the Philippines has total catch higher by 7.8% of the MSY as compared with the Philippines 2.4%. The possible reason is that Vietnam as a matter of policy employs more labor force in the fishery sector both in aquaculture and fish capture to produce more fishery products for domestic and foreign market. Hence, higher rate of fisheries exploitation is due to poverty and market demand which make fisheries management a difficult task in said countries. Thus, the need to go beyond fisheries management which by embarking on rural sustainable development involving multi-stakeholders.

14. Overfished regions in the Philippines In the google satellite map below, the status of the fisheries in different regions are presented. It is Region VI (Western Visayas), VII (Central Visayas), Region IX (Zamboanga peninsula), Region X (Northern Mindanao) and Caraga region which are contiguous overfished areas. And It is Western Visayas and Central Visayas which have more than 2 million population living below poverty in 2009 (Graph below). Therefore, said 2 regions should be given priority in poverty reduction and fisheries management programs.

S helf area
D eepwater

Legend:
E E Z
Overfis Overfis hed hed area area

D eepwater

S helf area S helf area

H ig h-Y ielding S helf area

S helf a rea

H ig h-Y ielding area

H ig h-Y ielding area H ig h-Y ielding

area Overfished reg ions

a rea D eep wa ter

H ig h-Y ielding area

H ig h-Y ielding area

15. Aside from overfishing, climate change like the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina appeared to have positive and adverse effect, respectively, on fish catch as shown in the Graph below. Highest fish

catch occurred during the El Nino of 2009-2010. Then significant drop in fish catch occurred in 2011 which was a La Nina year. In 2012 considered as a weak El Nino year or more of a La Nina year, the fish catch continued to drop as presented in Item no. 12 a above. It has been predicted that 2013 will still be a weak El Nino or more of a La Nina year as shown in the Oceanic Nino Index Graph below.

15.

Fisheries Management through fishing ban on Indian sardine (tamban)

a. BFAR had declared closed season or fishing ban on sardine in Zamboanga peninsula between Dec 2011 and February, 2012 and then Dec 2012 and February 2013. Graph below shows that there is a significant increase in municipal catch of tamban by 3,388 m.t. between 2011 and 2012 in Zamboanga del Norte but decrease by 383 m.t. in Zamboanga City. This indicates that the ban was effective.

b. Graph below shows that there is a significant increase in commercial catch of tamban by 8,337 m.t. between 2011 and 2012 in Zamboanga City and by 1,728 m.t. in Zamboanga del Norte. This indicates that the ban was effective.

c. . Graph below shows that there is a significant increase in the total catch of tamban in both Zamboanga City and del Norte by 11,342 m.t. between 2011 and 2012. This indicates that the ban was effective for the tamban fisheries (commercial and municipal) in both areas.

d. Graph below shows a decrease in the total commercial fish catch by 3,738 m.t. municipal catch by 769 m.t. between 2011 and 2012 in Zamboanga City. This indicates that the increase in catch of sardine did not contribute positively to the overall commercial fisheries in Zamboanga City.

e. Graph below shows a decrease in the total municipal fish catch by 2,791 m.t. and increase in commercial catch by only 20 m.t. between 2011 and 2012 in Zamboanga del Norte. This indicates that the increase in catch of sardine did not contribute positively to the overall municipal fisheries in Zamboanga del Norte.

f. The decreasing trend in the total marine fish catch in Zamboanga del Norte, despite the improvement in the fishing ban on tamban, could mean that the fishers, particularly the municipal fishers continue to suffer from too much poverty The conditional cash transfer being implemented by DSWD should be provided more to the fisherfolk in coastal communities whose fishing grounds are heavily exploited. 16. Therefore, it can be said that there was an improvement in the catch of sardine in 2012 because of the fishing ban, but the overall marine fishery as shown by decreasing catch has not improved which indicates the continuous condition of overfishing of the other major species of fish. Inevitably, this situation could result to further increase in the incidence of hunger in Zamboanga del Norte. 17. Given the sorry state of the marine fisheries of Zamboanga del Norte whose poverty level is much higher than that of Zamboanga city, there is a need to review and evaluate existing programs related to fisheries management and livelihood diversification in the province being conducted by major stakeholders in order to find out how to effectively reverse the continuing decline in the total municipal fish catch by 8.2% in 2012 and 7.5% in 2012. 18. Graphs below show that import of fish and fishery preparation is on the increasing trend during

Export and Import of Agricultural Products

the 2008-2011 period while the export of said product is on the decreasing trend. This confirms the decreasing production of fish in the country whose solution is not clearly stated in the government program under the AFMA. On the other hand, import of cereal and preparations is on the decreasing trend while export is on the increasing trend during 2008-2011 period. The target of the P-Noy administration is not only to become self-sufficient in rice but also an exporter. This is being done through government spending in the irrigations for rice throughout the country. 19. The Graph below shows that both values of export and import are on the increasing trend and the gap is gradually narrowing from negative US 3.795 billion to negative US $ 2.408.2 billion. Value of Agricultural Import and Export

20. The Graph below shows the relationship of per capita GDP, poverty incidence and inequality of 3 ASIAN countries: Philippines, Vietnam and India.

a. Among the 3 countries, the Philippines has the highest per capita GDP followed by India and Vietnam, while India has the highest poverty incidence followed by the Philippines and Vietnam. Vietnam has the lowest per capita GDP but with the lowest poverty incidence. One possible reason is that Vietnam has the highest productivity in agriculture and fisheries while India and the Philippines have more less the same level of productivity.

b. It is only through increasing the productivity of the agriculture and fisheries sector in the Philippines that the poverty incidence can be significantly reduced. It must be noted that the Philippines just like India and Indonesia is basically an agricultural/fisheries country in which the majority of the rural people depend for main source of income. 21. In Bong Escobers article titled Urgent reforms needed to lift fishers out of poverty, NGO says Jakarta Post dated July 23, 2012, it cited the statement issued by the Tambuyog Development Center that the widespread poverty among fishers can be remedied only by implementing urgent reforms, and President Aquino himself must see to it that these reforms are carried out effectively by the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), together with the local government units . It added that the reforms which are prerequisites to all other fisheries programs are as follows: a) registration of the municipal fisherfolk in about 700 coastal municipalities all over the country so that the sector will be recognized as a legitimate socio-economic sector and avail of government services and support, including assistance in times of natural calamities and economic emergencies and b) updating the fisheries development plan known as the Comprehensive National Fisheries Integrated Development Plan (CNFIDP) so as to integrate the fishers along the value chain by organizing them into Fisherfolk Cooperatives that will engage not only in fish capture but also in livelihood diversification like fish culture, fish processing and marketing of products; thus fisheries

management measures will become more effective and easier to implement because municipal fishers will have fallback livelihoods aside from fishing.
22. The agriculture and fisheries sector can fully develop if the following aspects, among others, are considered: a. Higher budgets for Mindanao (Inquirer,10/04/11).as advocated by former NEDA Director-General Cielito F. Habito, but then he suggested that Infusions of substantial additional budgetary resources for Mindanao cannot come without prior investments in improved local capacities for development management, including in planning, program and project formulation, fiscal management and monitoring and evaluation. Otherwise, we may be simply throwing more money into a bottomless pit. b. Modernizing agri-fisheries sector in PH (Inquirer, 1/3/13), as recommended by Ernesto M. Ordoez (Chairman of Agriwatch, former secretary for presidential flagship programs and projects, and former undersecretary for Agriculture, and Trade and Industry), that will allow farmers, fisherfolk and agribusiness to actively participate in the plans formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. The institutional body created by law to do this is the Agriculture and Fisheries Council (AFC), from the national to the barangay level. The AFCs interact with the governors and mayors, who are now primarily responsible for agriculture development under the Local Government Code. The AFCs should therefore be identified and harnessed in the proposed institutional arrangements for the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Plan. c. Improvement in the key success variables for projects in the agriculture and fishery sector as indicated in the article titled Why agriculture projects in PH fail (Inquirer, 5/30/11), namely: (1) (2) (3) (4) capacity to do the right activities coherence in actions and activities based on the system-orientation principle autonomy in decision making adaptability to the changing situation or environment.