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People's Republic of China is working to speed with allround transformation. Despite

changes that are far-reaching both for the Chinese society and the role of China in the
world, an element that remains unchanged is Pakistan's relations with China. These retain
the warmth that has been an abiding feature of this model friendship between the two
countries in the Third World for over three decades now.

One expression of this enduring aspect of Pakistan-China relations is last week's visit of
the Leader of the Opposition and former Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and
his delegation to China, which is the first such visit by a Leader of Opposition to the
People's Republic, where he was received warmly, virtually as a head of government with
meetings right up to Premier Li Peng. .

China's rise has to he seen to be believed. And it is a rise fuelled by economic progress,
political stability, a leadership with a vision and a will to transform China into an
independent player on the international scene. China' foreign trade is growing faster than
that of any other country in the world. In 1980 China' exports were less than S10 billion
annually. At present, these are more than S 120 billion and by the year 2000, the Chinese
exports are expected to cross S200 billion per year, over S40 billion each year to the
United States alone. Around' 60 per cent of all direct, foreign investment received by the
Third World countries gdes to China, and in the last
15 years, foreign investment in Chin has totalled $135 billion, with
1995 alone accounting for almost S40 billion in direct foreign investment.

China is also witnessing a growth rate which has been quite phenomenal for its
consistency, averaging around 10-12 per cent per annum since 1980. Although such
progress is currently confined to economy and trade, with China being the only major
military power who has frozen its defence budget and cut down its army from 4 million
to 2.9 million, the United States, which prides on itself being

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the sole superpower, views China as a potential economic, political and military
competitor.

For instance, the National Defence University in Washington is working on study that is
said to project China surpassing the United States as a superpower in 35 years. And a
classified war-war-game, simulated by the American Navy in 1994, had China' Navy,
which is still far from being a blue water navy, having "defeated" the US Seventh Fleet in
2010, i.e., in another 15 years.

Some features of the rise of China to the front ranks of not just developing but also
developed countries are noteworthy, and this emergence of an economically and
politically powerful China is also symbolic of the rise of Asia at the close of the 20th
century. These include:

$* Apart from being the world' fastest growing economy,

politically too, China is probably the only country capable

of resisting multifaceted US pressure on such diverse issue a

, human rights. Tibet, Taiwan, intellectual property rights,

| the issue of China's nuclear and missile co-operation with

I Pakistan and Iran, and the signing of the Comprehensive

| Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

I £="• China is forging ahead through a three-pronged approach that combines political
stability and unified leadership under the vanguard role of the Communist Party, the
ruling party's ideology of Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong thought

'' has been subtly and skilfully set aside to make room for a

non-ideological pragmatism and an accent on economic

| prosperity for people who, therefore, end up having both a

share in progress and a stake in the system.

fe" A foreign policy based on peace on it borders as well as building a new strategic from
Russian President Boris Yeltsin's recent visit to China, which can be termed as the first
serious initiative towards a multipolar world since the '<;nd of the Cold War in 1991,
which gave rise to a unipolar world dominated almost entirely by the United States.

For Pakistan, given its abiding intimacy with China, three aspects of this resurgence of
China are significant. First, China is a stickler for principles, remaining committed to a
perspective even if it takes decades for its position to be accepted. For instance, it took
China over two decades before it was given its rightful place in the United Nations
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place of Taiwan which had occupied that position since the end of World War II.

A similar attitude of China is evident on such issues as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
China patiently waited and negotiated an agreement for the peaceful return of Hong Kong
which will now take place on July 1,1997, while Portugal will return Macau to China in
1999. China is willing to wait it out on Taiwan as well, and it has given an innovative
proposal based on "one country, two systems". For instance, in 1971 when Dr. Henry
Kissinger visited China for the first time via Pakistan, he was received by Premier Zhou
En-Lai in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in a room of the Fujian province (each
province of Chin has a room under its name), since Taiwan is considered by China as
being part of the Fujian province. The Pakistani former Prime Minister, for example, was
received by the Chinese leadership in the Xinjiang room of the Great Hall of the People
and this is one province of China which borders Pakistan and which is a Muslim majority.

Referring to their recent problems with the British over Hong Kong the Chinese make an
interesting analogy between the role of Mountbatten, Britain's last Viceroy to India, in
1947, who left the legacy of the Kashmir issue remains unresolved to date with Britain's
last Governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, who has suddenly discovered a love for
democracy and is leaving behind the Hong Kong Legislative Council, which is provoking
the Chinese sensitivity in a territory that they will be governing in a year's time.

The second aspect which is of interest is the role of India in this emerging equation of
China' rise. There are those who feel that China and India are restoring their old
relationship which pre-datcd the period of Pakistan-China friendship, and there are others
who feel that India is being promoted as a "card" and a counterweight by the United
States to pressurise China as and when required. At least on one count, the myth of India
emerging as a possible competitor to China needs to be set at rest. Certain stark economic
facts are evident in this regard. Today, only 65 million Chinese live in absolute poverty,
i.e., only 5 per cent of the population. In India, almost 30 per cent people, i.e., over 300
million live below the poverty line. By the middle of the next century, China, expects to
become a middle income country with a population of less than 1.6 billion. India, by then
will be the worlds' most populous country with a per capita income of less than half of
China.

On top of this, China is well aware of the fact that India today continues to host Tibet's
Dalai Lama who is based in Northern India and who uses his headquarters in India to
propagate

against China's integrity and unity by calling for the independence of Tibet. China is also
aware of the fact that in all international for a, India's strategic raison d'frre for its nuclear
programme is the alleged "threat" from China.
The third aspect in China's resurgence is the American factor with a growing Chinese
belief that the US is somehow kcen.to encircle China or "contain" China is the same way
that the Americans sought to "contain" the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The US
former Ambassador to China, James Lilley, recently offered this explanation to backup
the "containment of China" theory: "China sees America snuggling up to India and
kicking Pakistan in the shins, recognising Vietnam walking hand-in-hand with Japan into
the 21st century, wanting United Korea under Seoul allied with the United States," adding
that from the ^Chinese perspective, it looks inweasirffly like "a ring around China.'

However, as the recent refusal of the United States to impose sanctions on China for the
alleged supply of ring magnets to Pakistan and Washington's decision to renew. China's
Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade status next month, which means, that their bilateral
S50 billion trade will remain unaffected, shows that the US is keen not to push China
beyond a certain limit. The US knows that China today is a factor for stability in such key
volatile areas of the Third World as South Asia, Middle East, North East Asia and Central
Asia. And China has leverage on such countries as Pakistan, Iran and North Korea.

The US is not sure whether it can bank on Japan as a possible counterweight to China,
given the fact that in 1994, Japan would not commit to send even its minesweepers to
support the American warships during tensions on North Korea's nuclear programme, or
in early 1996, the US did not seek Japanese assistance in its confrontation with China
over Taiwan and neither did it consult Japan before despatching an Okinawa-based
carrier battle group.

China is probably the only country in the world today to negotiate with the only country
in the States from a position of strength, and that is one reason which accounts for
China's growing clout in international policies and the fact that China today is being
treated with respect even by the Unked States. As China's rise indicates, that clout is
likely to grow in the future.