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NSP THREATENS CHINA

United states space policy (nsp) threatens Chinas security. Bao Shixiu 11, senior fellow of military theory studies and international relations at the Institute for
Military Thought Studies, Academy of Military Sciences of the PLA of China, director of the Institute, a visiting scholar at the Virginia Military Institute in the United States, China Security, Winter 2007, pp.2 11, http://www.wsichina.org/cs5_1.pdf The NSP presents a number of challenges to Chinas security environment. First, it grants the United States with exclusive rights to space: the right to use any and all necessary means to ensure American security while at the same time denying adversaries access to space for hostile purposes. This sets up an inequitable environment of haves and have-nots in space, raising suspicion amongst nations. For instance, the NSP declares that U.S. space systems should be guaranteed safe passage over all countries without exception (such as interference by other countries, even when done for the purpose of safeguarding their sovereignty and their space integrity). With its significant space assets and military space capabilities, this situation gives the United States an obvious and unfair strategic advantage in space. Second, it refutes international restrictions and undercuts potential international agreements that seek to constrain Americas use of space. This effectively undermines any potential initiatives put forth by the international community to control space weaponization initiatives that China supports. This U.S. position leads the global community to suspect U.S. unilateralist intentions in space. Lastly, while the policy may not state it explicitly, a critical examination of its contents suggest its intention to dissuade and deter other countries, including China, from possessing space capabilities that can challenge the United States in any way a parameter that would effectively disallow China to possess even a minimum means of national defense in space. The resultant security environment in space is one with one set of rules for the United States and another set of rules for other nations. In such a context, only U.S. security concerns are taken into account with a result of the reinforcement of a zero-sum dynamic to which space is already prone and threatens to pressure others into a military space race.

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US SPACE EFFECTS CHINA

China pursues space because of American space activities. Theresa Hitchens 03, one of the leading U.S. analysts on U.S. military space policy, Monsters and
shadows pg 25, 2003, http://www.unidir.org/pdf/articles/pdf-art1884.pdf

However, as indicated, much of Chinas interest in space seems to stem directly from concerns about American military activities in space. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Chinas worries about protecting its space-based assets are due to concern about American development of missile defences and future American global dominance as a result of American space power.47 Indeed, at the 7 February 2002 meeting of the CD, Hu specifically mentioned American actions as a key reason that negotiations on the weaponization of space should commence quickly. Now that the ABM [AntiBallistic Missile] Treaty has been scrapped and efforts are being stepped up to develop missile defence and outer space weapon systems, there is an increasing risk of outer space being weaponized, he said.

If U.S. acts alone in space, China will react. Joan Johnson-Freese 4, Chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the United
States Naval War College, Chinese Chess in Space, January 2004, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/chinese-chess-space The third alternative focuses on cooperation. The US has a long and successful tradition of international cooperation in space. Especially in the areas of space science and environmental monitoring, the US has historically viewed space as an opportunity to build bridges with countries while simultaneously co-opting them into working on areas of our choice, rather than areas not to our liking. Cooperation is clearly the better option with China, too. The US could start slowly, rewarding Beijing for reciprocity and transparency by granting China an increasingly larger role in a joint program of manned exploration and development. Specifically, a US proposal to multilaterally review and expand the future of manned space exploration from the ISS to another lunar voyage or even a Mars mission - on an incremental, inclusive basis would allow Washington to revitalize American space leadership. Crucially, it would also give the US a means to influence the future direction of the Chinese space program. This option would counter the prevailing view of the US as a unilateralist hegemon and allow for a focus on infrastructure development that does not require unrealistic budget burdens. While there is the risk of international politics intruding into the process over time, that is counterbalanced by the vested interest such a program would give participants in system stability. To be sure, there would be resistance to working with China. Washington is replete with individuals adamantly objecting to cooperation with China on grounds from human rights to its status as the largest remaining communist country. Isolating China, however, is increasingly a stance counterproductive to US interests, as a world without China is simply not possible. US and Chinese interests frequently overlap, on North Korea and the Global War on Terror, for example, not to mention economics. The United States has a window of opportunity to step in and use space cooperation to its advantage. Because space is considered so critical to the futures of both the US and China, any activity by one has been considered zero-sum by the other, triggering an action-reaction cycle and threatening escalation into an arms race of technology and countermeasure development. That direction can be changed. A inclusive vision will give the US an opportunity to assume the mantle of leadership on a mission that could inspire the world and shift Chinese activities into areas more compatible with US interests. On the geostrategic Wei Qi board, cooperation is the best "next move" for the US.

Chinas space program is accelerating because U.S. program is in turmoil. Clara Moskowitz 10, space.com Senior Writer, China's Lofty Goals: Space Station, Moon and Mars
Exploration, December 2010, http://www.space.com/10431-china-lofty-goals-space-station-moon-marsexploration.html China is shifting its space program into high gear, with recently announced goals to build a manned space station by 2020 and send a spacecraft to Mars by 2013 ? all on the heels of its second robotic moon mission this year. Yet some space analysts worry that China's ascendancy in space means the waning of American superiority in spaceflight. The United States is retiring its storied space shuttle fleet in 2011 and plans to rely on commercial spaceships for orbital flights, once they're available, while planning future

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deep-space missions. "Certainly [the Chinese] see it as an opportunity to garner prestige at a time when the U.S. space program is in what some people call turmoil, and what others call regrouping," said Joan Johnson-Freese, chairwoman of the department of national security studies at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I., and an expert on China's space program. Among Americans, she said, "there is the perception that China is somehow getting ahead, that the U.S. is sliding behind."

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EAST ASIA STABLE

Strong China guarantees stability. David C. Kang 09, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia
Review, , 2009 - 274 pages Throughout the past three decades East Asia has seen more peace and stability than at any time since the Opium Wars of 1839-1841. During this period China has rapidly emerged as a major regional power, averaging over nine percent economic growth per year since the introduction of its market reforms in 1978. Foreign businesses have flocked to invest in China, and Chinese exports have begun to flood the world. China is modernizing its military, has joined numerous regional and international institutions, and plays an increasingly visible role in international politics. In response to this growth, other states in East Asia have moved to strengthen their military, economic, and diplomatic relations with China. But why have these countries accommodated rather than balanced China's rise? David Kang believes certain preferences and beliefs are responsible for maintaining stability in East Asia. Kang's research shows how East Asian states have grown closer to China, with little evidence that the region is rupturing. Rising powers present opportunities as well as threats, and the economic benefits and military threat China poses for its regional neighbors are both potentially huge; however, East Asian states see substantially more advantage than danger in China's rise, making the region more stable, not less. Furthermore, although East Asian states do not unequivocally welcome China in all areas, they are willing to defer judgment regarding what China wants and what its role in East Asia will become. They believe that a strong China stabilizes East Asia, while a weak China tempts other states to try to control the region. Many scholars downplay the role of ideas and suggest that a rising China will be a destabilizing force in the region, but Kang's provocative argument reveals the flaws in contemporary views of China and the international relations of East Asia and offers a new understanding of the importance of sound U.S. policy in the region.

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CHINA SPACE RAISES SOFT POWER

Space programs raise Chinas soft power Freese 07, Summer 07, Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese is a Professor of National Security Affairs at the
Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, Chinas space ambitions, http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=china+AND+%22space+program%22+AND+ %28%28%22soft+power%22%29%28credibility%29%28diplomacy %29%29&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C9&as_sdtp=on

As previously mentioned, in March 2007, the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) announced Chinas first plan for space science development. Included in the plans is the countrys first astronomy satellite, to carry a hard X-ray modulation telescope, to be launched in 2010. Additionally three international cooperative projects are to be
implemented in the five-year period covered by the plan. Those include two missions with Russia, including an unmanned mission to Mars, and the Small Explorer for Solar Eruptions (SMESE) mission with France to observe solar flares and coronal mass ejections during the next Solar Maximum in about 2011. The emphasis on international cooperation in these projects is not surprising. China understands the value of cooperation in the sense of both climbing the scientific and engineering learning curves faster in some instances, but also in maximizing resources and building soft power relationships with other countries. Not just in space science, but in all areas, China has reached out and been largely successful in establishing a network of space partnerships.

China space program is key to soft power De Sa 10, Tiago Moreira de S is guest assistant professor in New University of Lisbon and researcher
at the Portuguese Institute for International Relations, CHINAS SPACE PROGRAM: A NEW TOOL FOR PRC SOFT POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS? Space has become another area where China is exerting its soft power. It is positioning itself as a space benefactor to the developing world-the same countries in some cases, whose natural resources China covets. China not only designed, built and launched a satellite oil rich Nigeria but also combined it with a major loan to help pay the costs. It has signed a similar contract with Venezuela and is developing an earth observation satellite system with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru and Thailand. 50 In addition to serving national security and domestic civilian use of space, Chinas space activities are also being used as a tool for diplomacy. The nations space related international cooperation efforts, which began with a bilateral arrangement for satellite development, have blossomed to include the establishment of satellite tracking stations and a leading role in multilateral frameworks. Chinas pursuit of such international cooperation is expected to expand in the future, and will likely help the nation to secure its necessary supply of resources and energy. In light of this posture and Chinas growing efforts to provide African nations with official development assistance and debt relief, projects like the ChinaNigeria partnership in communication satellite development and launches can be seen as examples of Chinas exploitation of space activities as a diplomatic tool.

China space program raises diplomacy Day 2008, October 13, Dwayne A. Day is the associate editor of Raumfahrt Concret, a German
spaceflight magazine, and frequently writes about space history and policy, The New path to Space: India and China enter the game. According to Cheng, the PRC sees space as promoting zonghe guojia liliang, or comprehensive national security. It improves the national economy both by raising Chinas level of science and technology and generating high-tech jobs, and serves national security, both through military security and diplomacy. It is this latter point that often gets ignored in the West. The PRC uses space as a diplomatic tool, Cheng noted, citing several recent examples including satellite sales to Venezuela and Nigeria, the sharing of satellite data, and Chinas membership in the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization. Potential future efforts include offering insurance for space missions and training foreign astronauts.

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CHINESE SOFT POWER GOOD China soft power key to African infrastructure
David Musyoka, Student at Scott Christian University, Peter Mutai, MANAGER at NIC BANK LIMITED, and Ben Ochieng 11, Program Officer at Population Council, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/17/c_13694941.htm
Use of soft power diplomacy will continue to be a key driver of China's strengthened relations with Africa and likely to propel China to higher global economic and military influence it currently commands, analysts say. "China is a major global economic player and while it's not possible to know how far the use of soft power can propel it," said Dr Moses Kavanga, executive director of East Africa Institute of Political Studies. "In Africa, soft power has worked so well for China," Kavanga told Xinhua in an exclusive interview ahead of the Chinese leader' s visit to United States this week. He said the important outcome of the growing China-Africa relations is the construction and reconstruction of infrastructure especially roads, water works and hospitals happening in much faster pace than when Africa exclusively relied on the west as its strategic global partner

China helps African infrastructure Fei Liena, writer for the English News, Xiong Sihao, author for the Beijing Review, 09, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/29/content_10731854.htm
However, over the past 20 to 30 years, Africa's focus has been on the development of communication and education, infrastructure has been neglected and constrained by a lack of finance, that's why China's involvement in Africa's infrastructure building "has had fundamental and transformative impact", said the prime minister. "Chinese companies have the ability to do quality work, do it in time, and with competitive prices," said Meles: "They have penetrated the African market in general, and the Ethiopian market in particular. And this has made a major impact on Africa's implementation of infrastructure projects." The Chinese government and banks have provided billions of U.S. dollars worth of loans for the infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, said he, including 1.5 billion dollars in telecommunications and nearly one billion in other infrastructure projects. He also believes similar scale of loans are provided by China to other African countries.

Deterioration of infrastructure deepens poverty. Asia Report 11, sub group of crisis report, Central Asia: Decay and Decline, February,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/201-central-asia-decay-and-decline.aspx
The consequences of this neglect are too dire to ignore. The rapid deterioration of infrastructure will deepen poverty and alienation from the state. The disappearance of basic services will provide Islamic radicals, already a serious force in many Central Asian states, with further ammunition against regional leaders and openings to establish influential support networks. Economic development and poverty reduction will become a distant dream; the poorest states will become ever more dependent on the export of labour. Anger over a sharp decline in basic services played a significant role in the unrest that led to the overthrow of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010. It could well play a similar role in other countries, notably Tajikistan, in the not too distant future. Events in one state can quickly have a deleterious effect on its neighbours. A polio outbreak in Tajikistan in 2010 required large-scale immunisation campaigns in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and triggered reports of infection as far away as Russia. Central Asia may also be negatively affected by its neighbours: a further decline in infrastructure is likely to coincide with increasing instability in Afghanistan, and a possible spillover of the insurgency there. The needs are clear, and solutions to the decline in infrastructure are available. The fundamental problem is that the vital prerequisites are steps that Central Asias ruling elites are unwilling to take. These amount to nothing less than a total

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repudiation of regional leaders values and behaviour. They would need to purge their governments of top-to-bottom systemic corruption; cease using their countries resources as a source of fabulous wealth for themselves and their families; and create a meritocracy with decent pay that would free officials from the need to depend on corruption to make ends meet. All these changes are so far from current realities that foreign governments and donors may dismiss them as hopelessly idealistic. Yet without organised change from above, there is a growing risk of chaotic change from below. Donors are doing nothing to prevent such a scenario. Their cautious approach seems driven by the desire not to upset regional leaders, rather than using the financial levers at their disposal to effect real change. Aid is often disbursed to fulfil annual plans or advance broader geopolitical aims. Donors have made no effort to form a united front to push for real reform. Without their involvement, the status quo can stumble along for a few more years, perhaps, but not much longer. Collapsing infrastructure could

bring down with it enfeebled regimes, creating enormous uncertainty in one of the most fragile parts of the world.

Africa is in poverty due to infrastructure LaRouche 10, August 11, Lyndon Hermyle LaRouche, Jr. is an American political activist and
founder of a network of political committees, parties, and publications known collectively as the LaRouche movement When one thinks of Africa, one thinks of a continent that is lagging behind the rest of the World. The satellite photograph here shows Africa at night, literally the Dark Continent, due to the lack of infrastructure development. The lack of physical power in Africa, not only puts Africa in the dark, it means poverty and want and the inability for high end economic production. Of course, in part, that is the result of the deliberate policy of Europe and America to prevent development of Africa. The policy is to keep Africa divided and primitive, and make of it one big game park, with exotic animals and people. How about an opposite policy that favors and promotes African development into the 21rst Century for a change, and let's get our first African President to back it! Here are remarks by Lyndon LaRouche on the topic. Poverty is the deadliest form of structural violence it is equivalent to an ongoing nuclear war. Gilligan, 96 [James, Former Director of Mental Health for the Massachusetts Prison System, Violence, p.] In other words, every fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unenending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide,perpetuated on the weak and poor ever year of every decade, throughout the world.

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CHINA SOFT POWER INCREASING

China is using its soft power as a threat ERICH FOLLATH, reporter for the German Der Spiegel magazine, July 29, 2010, http://abcnews.go.com/International/chinas-soft-power-threat-united-states/story? id=11277294
Beijing is happy to use its soft power to get what it wants -- and it is wrong-footing the West at every turn. Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen once told me, half with amusement and half with resignation, that military people around the world are all more or less the same. "They can only be happy when they have the most up-to-date toys," he said. If this is true, Beijing's generals must be very happy at the moment. China has increased its military budget by 7.5 percent in 2010, making funds available for new fighter jets and more cruise missiles. Beijing's military buildup is a source of concern for Western experts, even though the US's military budget is about eight times larger. Some feel that China poses a threat to East Asia, while others are even convinced that Beijing is preparing to conquer the world militarily.

Chinese soft power rising Jacques DeLisle 10, director of the Asia Program at FPRI, http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5404/delisle.chinataiwan.pdf
Chinas accretion and use of soft power can be a palliative, genuinely allaying other states worries about a China threat. Short of that, soft power can divert other states foreign policymaking from assessments based solely on Chinas growing capabilities into more complex ones focusing on intent as well, giving Beijing a second front or a second chance to dissuade balancing or containment-oriented responses. Or, more modestly still, Chinas soft power assets and initiatives can provide arguments (or at least cover) for those in policy circles abroad who oppose stronger reactions to Chinas rise, whether rooted in calculations of national or narrower parochial interest, political preference, expectations of opportunities to free ride on U.S.-provided international security public goods, or other reasons. As Chinas hard power resources continue to rise and Beijing undertakes efforts to cultivate and employ greater soft power, the PRC may turn to relying on soft power to pursue more assertive and potentially status quo-altering ends, but it has not done so yet. Taiwan is a major element in Chinas soft power agenda, and one toward which Chinas aims have long been less than fully pro-status quo. Taiwan is both the immediate target of some PRC uses of soft power and the indirect object of others, primarily those seeking to undermine other states support for conferral of state-like status on the Republic of China (ROC)/Taiwan.

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HEGE CARDS
China space key to hegemony Pollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center for
Intelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology during the tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc? AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf Chinas burgeoning space program provides opportunities for China to use the benefits derived from space power to become a more influential and respected nation. While China does not have an official grand strategy, the Chinese leadership appears to have reached a consensus on a plan which sustains the conditions necessary for economic growth and military modernization in the context of operating in a unipolar world dominated by the United States. This strategy is designed to ultimately usher in a multipolar world in which China is one of several great powers by protecting Chinas core national interests against external threats and by shaping the international system in which it operates.

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ZERO SUM
China space raises soft power which is key to heg and is zero sum. Pollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center for
Intelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology during the tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc? AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf Chinas efforts to develop its space program to transform itself into an economically and technologically powerful country may also come at the expense of U.S. leadership in both absolute and relative terms. China has also been able to use its space program to further its diplomatic objectives and to increase its influence in the developing world and among second-tier space powers. Chinas increasingly capable space program will have a net negative-sum effect on the United States and requires both domestic and international responses by the United States.

China space key to world influence Pollpeter 08, March, Kevin Pollpeter is China Program Manager at Defense Group Inc.s Center for
Intelligence Research and Analysis, Building for the future: Chinas progress in space. Technology during the tenth 5 year plan and US response, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc? AD=ADA478502&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf Chinas grand strategy is reflected in its pursuit of space power. Chinas space program is intended to portray China as a modernizing nation that is committed to the peaceful uses of space while at the same time serving Chinas political, economic, and military interests. It contributes to Chinas overall influence and provides capabilities that give China more freedom of action and opportunities for international leadership. With the exception of its ASAT test in January 2007, China has been able to conduct many of these activities without directly challenging the United States in space. Indeed, despite the dual-use nature of space technology, China is loathe to mention the military utility of it space program. Chinas progress in space technologies, however, has many negativesum aspects for the United States which may lead to confrontation or competition in space.

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CHINA IS A WORLD POWER.

China is a world power. Shaun Breslin 10, University of Warwick, Chinas Emerging Global Role, 2010
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9256.2010.01385.x/pdf China has (re-)emerged as a great power in a world not of its own making. The distribution of power in major organisations and the dominant norms of international interactions are deemed to favour unfairly the existing Western powers, and at times obstruct China's ability to meet national development goals. Nevertheless, engaging the global economy has been a key source of economic growth (thus helping to maintain regime stability), and establishing China's credentials as a responsible global actor is seen as a means of ensuring continued access to what China needs. As an emerging great power which is also still in many respects a developing country, China's challenge is to change the global order in ways that do not cause global instability or generate crises that would damage China's own ability to generate economic growth and ensure political stability. Chinese understandings of China's place in the world can be summed up by the content of two separate news items from the same day. The first pointed to China's global economic reach and significance. It was simply no longer possible for the existing powers to ignore such an important economic force and China had to be a central component of any new mechanisms of global governance, Chinese interests and ideas had to be taken more seriously, and the existing power structures had to be revised to take account of China's economic power. The second focused on China's position on global environmental issues. Although a big power, China, it argued, was still very much a developing country with more than 100 million people living in poverty and hundreds of millions more lacking the basic standards of living that are taken for granted in the West. It would simply not be fair for the Chinese to be denied the same benefits of development that people in the developed world expected particularly given that the developed world was responsible for the overwhelming majority of carbon dioxide emissions since Europe began to develop two centuries ago. So we have, in the eyes of many Chinese, a China that deserves to be at the centre of global politics. And promoting the idea of returning to the great power status that China held for centuries before subjugation by militarily superior Western powers in the nineteenth century has a strong resonance within China. There is also a widely held and strong popular sense of injustice that China is being unfairly demonised by its enemies (Liu and Liu, 1997; Song et al., 2009; Song, Zhang and Qiao, 1996). China is a great power in a world that is not of its own making, where existing power structures have been established by others to serve the interests of the developed West; a dissatisfied great power with myriad domestic developmental challenges that remain the primary focus of China's leaders challenges that might even undermine continued rule by the Chinese Communist party (CCP) if not correctly handled. But dissatisfaction and a desire for change have not (yet) resulted in a revolutionary global agenda. On the contrary, China's leaders are keen to project an image of responsibility and trustworthiness; of a responsible great power that is a force for global peace, stability and growth. This is not simply a desire to be liked. China's leaders understand that the world is watching them closely and that many of those watching are concerned. In particular, by the late 1990s there was an increasing recognition by China's leaders that the rhetoric of Chinese foreign policy was raising concerns in other states about China's ultimate objectives (Johnston, 2003). Should this concern result in policies designed to contain China and constrain its development, then the task of meeting domestic challenges would become ever harder (Shirk, 2007). Thus, external perceptions of what China wants are partly driven by what China says and does and what China says and does is partly a response to these external perceptions. For the promoters and supporters of the global liberal order, the rise of China seems to have been identified as the single biggest challenge more so even than global economic chaos. So before outlining in more detail the understanding of a dissatisfied responsible great power, and what exactly China wants to change, this article first establishes why it is that China seems to be such a source of concern. The answer is found partly in the simple speed and scale of change in China in the post-Cold War era; change that has had unintentional consequences for the rest of the world. But it also goes beyond just the practical and real impact of China's rise into a more deep-seated mistrust of China's long-term objectives, and the values and belief systems that underpin these aspirations. In short, no matter what China's leaders might say, some in the West remain convinced that China aims to shift not just the global balance of power but also the way in which international interactions occur and are governed as soon as it is in a position to do so.

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A2 CHINAS SPACE BUILDUP BAD

Chinas Space goal is peaceful. Sun Dangen 6, senior research fellow at the Academy of Military Sciences, Shenzhouand Dreams of
Space Issue 2 of China Security Journal, 2006 http://www.wsichina.org/attach/cs2_5.pdf

Numerous commentators in the international media have looked beyond these obvious economic rationales and suggested that Chinas manned space program will greatly enhance its military capabilities. These allegations do not stand up to scrutiny, however. The peaceful objective of Chinas space exploration program is undisputable. In the history of human society, every major scientific and technological breakthrough has been closely intertwined with both war and peace. Whether such a breakthrough has aided the advancement of human society or destroyed the fruits of that society has depended on whether the country or organization mastering that technology intends to seek peace through development, or to win peace through wars and hegemony. To take a stark example, nuclear technology is one the greatest scientific innovations mankind has known in the 20th Century. When applied to military goals, nuclear weapons could destroy our civilizations several times over. However, when used for peaceful intent, nuclear technology can play a huge role in the area of energy, medicine and other scientific purposes. In light of the importance placed on intent, Chinas space program faces critical choices: to serve military or civilian purposes. Chinas national development strategy focuses on economic development, with the goal of providing Chinas vast population a prosperous livelihood by building a harmonious society. Today,
Chinas space program serves the nations strategic goals: economic development, social improvement and scientific and technological advancement. Alternatively, when the security of a rising China is threatened or violated, its space capabilities will no doubt be key to protecting the nations national security interests. This is not unique to Chinas space program, but is true for

the Sun Dangen programs of other major nations, including the United States. Keeping in mind the important role that scientific and economic development play in
Chinas space program, all the technologies used for Chinas manned space flights have been essential for sending humans into space and for its peaceful exploration and use. Anyone with

rudimentary military knowledge will understand that any assertions to the contrary are inaccurate and incorrect.
China can rise peacefully. Jonathon M. Seidl 11, assistant editor at The Blaze, http://www.theblaze.com/stories/chinese-general-dont-worry-america-ourmilitary-doesnt-compare-to-yours/
Seeking to counter U.S. worries about his countrys rapid military growth, a top Chinese general said Wednesday the communist nations defense clout lags decades behind the U.S., and that China wants warmer relations. Gen. Chen Bingde, whose position in Beijing is roughly the equivalent of chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, used a 45-minute speech at the National Defense University to play down fears of Chinese intentions. Although Chinas defense and military development has come a long way in recent years, a gaping gap between you and us remains, Chen said through a Chinese interpreter. He added, China never intends to challenge the U.S. Chen made a similar point later at a Pentagon news conference with his American counterpart, Navy Adm. Mike Mullen. I can tell you that China does not have the capability to challenge the United

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States, he said, adding that Chinas wealth and military strength pales in comparison with that of the United States. He said Chinas navy is 20 years behind the U.S. Navy. Chens remarks were in line with Chinas strategy of countering U.S. fear of China as a military threat by emphasizing the limited scope of its military reach and advancing efforts to cooperate in areas like counterterrorism and anti-piracy. Chen said he invited Mullen to make his first visit to China as Joint Chiefs chairman. Chen and Mullen announced several agreements, including a plan for the U.S. and Chinese militaries to jointly conduct a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise in 2012. They also agreed to use a special telephone link to maintain communication between their offices.

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A2 DEFENSE INVESTMENTS
Chinas defense investments leads to an arms race. LESLIE P. NORTON 11, Asia editor and a feature writer at Barron's, Dragon Fire, JUNE 25, 2011
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903349804576403561272392884.html#articleTabs_ panel_article%3D1 . Even the most casual observer seems to know that China's economy has been growing at a roughly 10% annual rate for much of the past decade. Less recognized and arguably more important to the state of the world is the fact that China's defense spending rose even faster than that -- 12% or more a year between 2000 and 2009. "The accelerating pace of China's defense budget increases is driving countries in the region, as well as the U.S., to react to preserve a balance of power and stability," says Jacqueline Newmyer, head of Long-Term Strategy Group, a Cambridge, Mass.-based defense consultant. "There is a real potential for arms races to emerge," she adds. "While once we assumed we'd have access to areas to conduct anti-terrorism or anti-insurgency operations, now we're compelled to think about preserving our ability to gain access to East Asia." Stephen Rosen, Harvard's Beton Michael Kaneb professor of national security and military affairs, agrees. "All of us are clearly moving in that direction: We, the Japanese, the Indians. The only thing stalling it now are fiscal problems in Japan and the United States," says the former advisor to one-time presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani. Highlighting one of the fastest military buildups in history was China's debut of its stealth jet just hours before the January visit to Beijing by outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The fighter will rival the U.S.'s F-22 Raptor, the world's only operational stealth fighter. Larger than the F-22, with bigger fuel tanks, it will fly higher, faster and with less chance of detection. It's one of many Chinese weapons that will impede the U.S. military's ability to roam freely in the region. The investment implications for China's military modernization are only starting to take shape. But some U.S. companies like Lockheed Martin (ticker: LMT) and United Technologies (UTX), facing big budget cuts as President Obama withdraws the U.S. from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, should get some offset from a new spending cycle worldwide. Like it or not, U.S. investors also are likely to hear more about Chinese companies such as Xi'an Aero-Engine (600893.China) and China Shipbuilding Industrial (601989.China) that are helping arm the country. There's likely to be a steady stream of new IPOs for Chinese defense companies that some Western investors may choose to avoid. The effects go beyond equities. The sounds of new sabers rattling will stir both the bond and currency markets. THREE DECADES AFTER Vietnamese forces defeated China's People's Liberation Army in a border fight, Beijing's military has the potential to rearrange geopolitical relationships -- and military needs. In October, China conducted a joint air exercise with Turkey, its first with a NATO member. En route, its fighters refueled in Iran, the first time Iran allowed a foreign military to refill at its airfields since the Shah departed. Though they don't constitute a far-flung naval power, China's ships increasingly sail the world. In February, Beijing dispatched a frigate to Libya to evacuate 12,000 Chinese workers; it was able to arrive quickly because it was conducting antipiracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. These exercises seem benign, but they haven't escaped the notice of China's regional foes, particularly in Taiwan. China has about 1,500 ballistic missiles, many of them trained at Taiwan. Indeed, incoming Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told the Senate this month that China "appears to be preparing for potential contingencies involving Taiwan, including possible U.S. military intervention." China contests its border with India, part of which analysts refer to as "Southern Tibet." It also claims sovereignty over spits of land in the East China Sea, including the Senkaku islands between Taiwan and Japan. When Japan detained a Chinese trawler there last year, China banned rare-earth exports critical to high-tech manufacturing; Japan backed down. It also asserts authority over the Spratlys and Paracels -- largely uninhabited atolls in the South China Sea that sit on the oil-rich continental shelf. Those claims are variously disputed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan. China's claims have raised tensions. As a result, Vietnam held live-fire naval training earlier this month in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Philippines renamed the South China Sea the "West Philippine Sea," and Taiwan said it would dispatch missile boats and tanks to the Spratlys. Most worrying, of course, is control of the sea lanes, through which valuable merchandise and energy shipments pass. China maintains there's no ill intent. "We do not want to use our money to buy equipment or advanced weapons to challenge the United States," People's Liberation Army Chief of Staff Chen Bingde said in a visit to Washington, D.C., last month. He noted the "gaping gap" between Chinese and U.S. military capability. Many analysts are skeptical. Bradley Kaplan, a consultant to U.S. Pacific Command, says "Sun-tzu taught that the weaker power never demonstrates its intent or capability." Barron's has interviewed about two dozen experts on China's arms buildup; they date its modernization to

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Desert Storm, when Chinese generals saw how quickly the U.S. and its allies vanquished Iraq. Then came the election of Lee Teng-hui, the first native Taiwanese to become the island nation's president, which triggered the third Taiwan Strait crisis. The first Bush administration sold Taiwan 115 F-16 fighters. "In 1993, the PLA air force was in such poor shape that the F-16s made a difference," says David Finkelstein, director of China Studies at Center for Naval Analyses. China's increasing wealth pays for a big budget. Following its decade of spending increases, China's defense outlays are scheduled to rise another 12.7% in 2011 to 601 billion yuan (nearly $100 billion). That's far less than the U.S.'s $708 billion defense budget -- but the two are headed in opposite directions.

Arms race leads to nuclear war. Van Jackson 09, the Executive Editor of Asia Chronicle, Can U.S. Nuclear Plan Prevent
Asian Arms Race, May 2009, http://www.asiachroniclenews.com/default.asp? sourceid=&smenu=92&twindow=Default&...

From an East Asian security perspective and that of the Six Party Talks to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, the timing of President Obamas announcement could not have been better. Tensions have been rising in Asia in recent months. Negotiations over North Koreas nuclear program have deadlocked, yet again, and North Korea has just tested its long-range Taepodong-2 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, against the expressed desires of not simply the United States, but all the countries participating in the Six Party Talks. One of the myriad fears associated with North Koreas possession of nuclear weapons is the potential for it to spark a nuclear arms race in Asia. The doomsday scenario plays out rather intuitively: 1) North Korea confirms unequivocally that it will be keeping its existing nuclear weapons or possibly adding to its stockpile; 2) Japan, which has repeatedly mentioned its belief that a nuclear North Korea is a threat to Japanese security, dramatically builds up its defensive and offensive military capability, possibly developing its own nuclear program while it pushes for greater involvement in transnational security issues such as terrorism; 3) China, continuing to see Japan as the only near-peer realistically capable of challenging its regional leadership, is threatened by Japans remilitarization and responds by increasing its own military spending; 4) Partly in response to Chinas increased military expenditures and partly in response to nagging historically based concerns over Japans remilitarization, both South Korea and Taiwan build up their own conventional armaments, potentially engaging in secret nuclear programs as well. Under such circumstances, political risk indicators would shoot through the roof and foreign direct investment inflows of capital would quickly dry up as multinational corporations seek a safer, more stable region in which to do business. The regions resulting economic contraction would place increasing pressure on national governments to pander to xenophobic and nationalistic sentiments, as has been done many times before, thus stoking the fire of conflict. The region, in sum, would become a powder keg. This is not overly pessimistic hyperbole but a realistic scenario according to the classic literature on security dilemmas.[1] Just imagine a world where the most powerful countries in Asia all either possess nuclear weapons or are engaged in covert programs to develop a nuclear weapons capability, each in the name of its own security. Such a dreadful possibility is exactly what the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was designed to prevent. But the efficacy of the NPT has been called into question by some in recent years because of the actions of de facto and aspiring nuclear weapons states.[2] De jure nuclear weapons states like the United States have done little to help matters. In 2005, the Bush Administration took actions that some consider contrary to the spirit of the NPT by initiating a push to rewrite U.S. law and international regulations to recognize Indias nuclear capability in such a way that NPT-based sanctions would no longer apply.[3] Legally speaking, the NPT is the only thing that has prevented a global nuclear arms race to date and it is increasingly at risk of becoming irrelevant. Absent strategic changes on the part of global leaders like the United States and China, a North Korean decision to keep its nuclear weapons could spark the spiral model arms race described above. Hope for Change Against the backdrop of such a security dilemma and with the future utility of the NPT hanging in the balance, the initiation of a global trend away from nuclear weapons is a breath of fresh air. President Obamas call for strategic change, if heeded by the other declared nuclear weapons states and the U.S. Congress, is the only solution that can prevent an Asian arms race over the long term. However nave this strategy may seem to some, expert practitioners of

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realpolitik like former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Schultz have agreed with the need to at least make the effort. Gradual, global denuclearization efforts would reinforce the NPT while simultaneously creating the kind of international social pressure to which responsible nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and others should respond positively. For decades, the U.S. nuclear umbrella obviated the need for its Asian allies to develop nuclear capabilities. This same U.S. security guarantee, unfortunately, encouraged the North Koreans to obtain their nuclear capacity. Whether one ultimately blames this development on the effectiveness of the NPT or the apparent failure of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, preventing new nuclear weapons states will require the strengthening of, and robust commitment to, a global nonproliferation regime like the NPT. Whatever the prospects of President Obamas plan for dampening an Asian arms race, it will have little if any effect on either the amicable resolution of the Six Party Talks or the North Korean decision whether to remain a de facto nuclear state. With the possible exception of efforts by China, North Koreas isolation vis--vis the international community of states has unintentionally made the recalcitrant regime nearly invulnerable to international law, intergovernmental institutions, economic sanctions, and the employment of soft power.

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