Projections of 18th Electric Power Survey of India

Projections of 18th Electric Power Survey of India

10 Jan 2012

Periodic Electric Power Survey (EPS) of the country is conducted by CEA to forecast State/ Union Territory-wise/ All India Electricity demand on short, medium and long term basis as a foremost planning exercise to base subsequent planning activities. The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planning to optimally utilize scarce resources. EPS were earlier being conducted annually up to year 1982 (11th Electric Power Survey). Thereafter, five year Plan-wise EPS were undertaken from 12th Electric Power Survey onwards. The 17 EPS, the latest in the series of Electric Power Surveys, was carried out by CEA and its report was published in March, 2007. It covered the forecast of year-wise electricity demand for each state/ U17 region/ All India in details up the end of XI Plan viz. 2011-12 as well as the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of XII & XIII Five Year Plan i.e. 2016-17 and 2021-22. 18th Electric Power Survey The 18th Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was constituted in February, 2010 with the following Terms of Reference:i. ii. To forecast the year wise electricity demand projection for each state, Union Territory, region and All India in detail up to the end of XII Plan i.e. for the years 2012-13 to 2016-17. To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of XIII & XIV Five Year Plans i.e. year 2021-22 & 2026-27.

The work of 18 EPS was taken up by CEA as per guidelines/directions of 18 EPSC. 1st Meeting of the EPSC was held in August, 2010 to discuss the methodology to be adopted, performance to be used for conducting EPS and modalities for collection/compilation of the input data from various State utilities and other concerned organizations/departments. It was also decided that unlike earlier power surveys, the scope of 18th EPS be enlarged to cover EPS of Mega cities on account of rapid urbanization, development of SEZs, industrial estates and dedicated freight corridors which would have significant impact on the perspective electricity demand in various categories of consumption in XII Plan and beyond. The 2nd meeting of 18th EPSC was held in March, 2011 wherein Committee discussed the preliminary forecast of 15 nos. States/UTs and reviewed the action plan for completing studies. The EPSC emphasized on the need for consultation with State utilities and State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) to study the pattern of growth of consumption in various categories, programmes of reducing the T&D losses and implementation of steps/measures for improvement of energy efficiency. The EPSC decided that the report of the 18th EPS be prepared in the following four volumes: Volume I : All India 18th EPS /Region /State/UT wise - September, 2011 Volume II : Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities - February, 2012 Volume III : Electric Power Survey of NCR, Delhi - June, 2012 Volume IV : 18th EPS of India (by econometric model) - October, 2012

EPSC in its 3rd meeting held in June, 2011, discussed the draft report of 18 Electric Power Survey (Volume-I). The Committee accepted the draft report in principle and directed to CEA to finalize the

same after considering the views/suggestions of state authorities. Consultations with State Authorities and State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs): The preliminary forecast of electricity demand of various states prepared by CEA was discussed in the meetings with state TRANSCOs, State Electricity Boards/Departments as well as SERCs to elicit their views on the growth rate in various categories of electricity consumption, policies/programmes launched by the respective state governments to strengthen the infrastructure for transmission and distribution and steps/measures being proposed to be taken for improvement of energy efficiency programme for reduction of Transmission & Distribution Losses, implementation of various programmes for rural electrification and demand side management which would have bearing on the electricity demand in the foreseeable future. The input data including proposal of states/UTs for demand projection were scrutinized and discussed before incorporating in the report EPS. Apart from growth in electricity demand, there would also be marginal reduction due to implementation of various steps/measures for improvement of energy efficiency. The 17th EPS had broadly encompassed the aims and objectives of National Electricity Policy (NEP) (notified in 2005) such as access to electricity by 2012, electricity demand to be fully met by 2012, increase in the per capita availability of electricity to 1000 units by 2012 and reduction of T&D Losses to be in line with international practices by the year 2012. The objectives of NEP are partially fulfilled as T&D Losses in various States/UTs are still very high and the shortages of power continue to be prevailing in the country. During the XI Plan, Ministry of Power have introduced various programmes for improvement of energy efficiency and impetus has been given on measures for utilities based demand side management with the objectives of reducing generation capacity, augmentation and strengthening of T&D System. The National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) was initiated in 2008 under the Nation Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) with the objective of enhanced energy efficiency by putting in place new initiatives. Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) mechanism launched for implementation of NMEEE is a market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness for improvement in energy efficiency in nine identified different types of energy intense industries. The main aspects taken into consideration for electricity demand forecasting for 18th EPS are policies/programmes launched by Government of India and states during XI Plan which would impact on the electricity demand in domestic, commercial and industrial categories of consumption. The state authorities in their programmes submitted to CEA have worked out projections after considering the effects of implementation of such policies/programmes. Methodology Partial End Use methodology (PEUM), a combination of time series analysis and End Use Method is a proven method for demand forecasting and has been used for earlier EPS by CEA. In line with directions of EPSC, PEUM has been used to forecast electricity demand for 18 EPS. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving higher weightage to recent trend so as to incorporate benefits of energy conservation initiatives and new technologies. The input data for period 2003-04 to 2009-10 was scrutinized for EPS. The year-wise and State-wise/UT-wise electricity energy requirement has been worked out up to end of XIII Plan (2021-22) on the basis of data for year 200910 which is taken as base year after adding one time shortages to electrical energy available. The 18th EPS has conducted short/medium term forecast for next 10 years viz. XII Plan and XIII Plan period so as to facilitate the states/utilities to achieve their programme for growth of demand, T&D losses reduction, augmenting of T&D system. The forecast covers demand for various categories of consumption viz. domestic, commercial, public lighting, Public Water Works, irrigation, industrial (LT,

HT less than 1 MW each, HT 1 MW and above each), Railway Traction & Bulk Non-Industrial HT Supply. The long term projections cover the made forecast for terminal years of XIV Plan and XV Plan period. Overview of Projections of 18th EPS According to 18 EPS the All India energy requirements in 2016-17 is assessed to be 1354.58 BU as against forecast of 1392.06 BU as per 17th EPS. The peak power demand in 2016-17 is assessed to be 199540 MW as against 218209 MW estimated as per 17th EPS. The State-wise/UT-wise/regionwise and All India details of short-term projections of energy requirements by end of XII Plan (2016-17) and XIII Plan (2021-22) and the long-term projections of energy requirements by end of XIV Plan (2026-27) and XV Plan (2031-32) are given below. Long Term Forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars in MUs (Utilities only) State/UTs Delhi Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttarkhand Chandigarh Northern Region Goa Gujarat Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra D. & N. Haveli Daman & Diu Western Region Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 27142 36575 8535 12504 46300 49859 78984 9722 1681 271301 3391 74229 16304 49878 120856 4682 2114 271453 85358 53523 19867 37529 56681 10901 16298 69410 77907 138854 12751 2165 422498 4853 108704 24222 77953 169353 6286 2817 394188 129767 78637 26584 52930 78586 14514 21884 86941 110483 209046 16774 2842 594000 6837 153582 34106 107060 225606 8413 3706 539310 191912 108012 34691 73827 110915 19198 31110 108835 161741 308887 22438 3719 840670 9442 218610 46979 155489 310654 11164 4980 757318 284776 147941 46049 99649 150083 25096 43075 136243 226014 420829 29733 4821 1135543 12617 301160 62620 213539 417826 14676 6536 1028974 412903 200736 61125

Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Southern Region Bihar Jharkhand Orissa West Bengal Sikkim Eastern Region Assam Manipur Meghalaya Nagaland Tripura Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram North Eastern Region Andman & Nicobar Lakshadweep All India

82335 2828 243912 15015 19905 25004 45774 389 106086 6081 615 1817 620 930 435 455 10953 267 41

119251 3586 357826 29447 27691 35772 70352 528 163790 8947 1241 2243 834 1402 552 936 16154 366 52

171718 4452 510786 52975 37482 42566 103283 645 236952 12699 2219 3029 1163 2026 721 1388 23244 505 65

244703 4444 727913 91733 51512 54565 150704 898 349412 18107 3881 4206 1728 2892 1085 2053 33952 709 84

337491 5271 1017526 131219 69475 70154 207948 1250 480046 25224 5416 5651 2373 3921 1489 2847 46921 963 110

904012 1354874 1904861 2710058 3710083

The short-term peak load demand projections by end of XII Plan (2016-17) & XIII Plan (2021-22) and the long-term projections of peak load by end of XIV Plan (2026-27) and XV Plan (2031-32) are given below. State/Uts Delhi Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttrakhand 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 4770 6376 1335 1802 8363 8097 12021 1656 6398 10273 1900 2687 12342 13886 23081 2189 9024 14244 2589 4217 14552 19692 36061 2901 12681 20103 3424 5996 18352 28828 53690 3911 17246 27202 4476 8302 23144 40284 73708 5222

Chandigarh Northern Region Goa Gujarat Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra D. & N. Haveli Daman & Diu Western Region Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Southern Region Bihar Jharkhand Orissa West Bengal Sikkim Eastern Region Assam Manipur Meghalaya Nagaland Tripura Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram North Eastern Region Andaman & Nicobar Lakshadweep

336 37265 530 11556 3155 8897 18398 640 308 39351 14122 8545 3489 12271 497 36175 2226 3201 3964 7454 106 15122 1257 171 361 130 239 88 160 2021 51 7

426 60934 815 19091 4687 13904 28645 944 441 62015 22445 13010 4669 20816 630 57221 5018 4616 5672 11793 144 24303 1817 346 445 185 340 135 285 2966 67 11

559 86461 1192 26973 6599 18802 39622 1297 605 86054 33194 18403 6093 29975 782 82199 9306 6341 6749 17703 176 35928 2534 497 596 271 472 177 352 4056 89 18

732 121979 1658 38691 9090 27519 54982 1733 818 120620 51601 25396 8150 43044 787 118764 16239 8780 8712 26027 245 53053 3613 869 828 403 674 266 521 6169 125 23

948 164236 2216 53301 12116 38088 74528 2294 1082 163222 74818 34720 10903 59827 940 165336 23411 11 930 11280 36187 341 72874 5033 1212 1112 554 913 365 723 8450 172 30

All India

124995

199540

283470

400705

541823

Table below indicates, region wise short-term forecast of energy requirements of peak load for the end of XII Plan (2016-17) and XIII Plan (2021-22) as well as for long term forecast for terminal years of XIV Plan (2026-27) and XV Plan (2031-32). Region wise summary of projections for Energy Requirements (MU) and Peak Load

(in MW) 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32

AM

Energy Peak Load Energy Peak Load Energy Peak Load Energy Requirement (MUs) (MW) Requirement (Mils) (MW) Requirement (MUs) (MW) Requirement (MUs) 422498 394188 357826 163790 16154 1354874 60934 62015 57221 24303 2966 199540 59400 539310 510786 236952 23244 1904861 86461 86054 82199 35928 4056 283470 840670 757318 727913 349412 33952 2710058 121979 120620 118764 53053 6169 400705 1135543 1028974 1017526 480046 46921 3710083

Pea (

1 1

The year-wise forecast of energy requirement during XII Plan period is given below Energy Requirement (MUs) Region/All India Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region All India 2011-12 271301 271453 242729 106086 10706 927931 2012-13 297350 291608 260865 119893 11624 999378 2013-14 324206 313465 280709 129725 12621 1076327 2014-15 353738 337289 301823 140637 13703 1159201 2015-16 386382 362901 324033 151668 14878 1248456 2016-17 422498 394188 357826 163790 16154 1354874

Transmission & Distribution (T&D) Losses: According to 18 EPS, the All India Transmission & Distribution losses for the base year 2009-10 are 25.36%. Based on the of consultations with State utilities/SERCs regarding their strategy and the steps being taken to reduce the T&D losses, it is expected that the All India T&D losses could be reduced to 18.90% by the end of XII Plan which could further be brought down to 15.39% by the end of XIII Plan. The states which have performed well are expected to reduce the T&D Losses to around 15% by the end of XII Plan whereas the poorly performing states which have yet to implement the up-gradation of

infrastructure for T&D system may be in a position to reduce losses to around 15% by the end of XIII Plan. The region wise information regarding expected T&D Losses by the end of XII & XIII Plans are given below. Region-wise T&D Losses (%) Region/All India Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region All India 2016-17 2021-22 20.13 19.12 16.78 19.36 22.71 18.90 16.12 14.91 15.44 14.22 18.65 15.39

Energy requirements during XII Plan and XIII Plan period: The forecast of All India Energy Consumption, Energy Requirements, T&D Losses and for 2011-12 and terminal years of XII, XIII & XIV Plans as per 18th EPS are given below: Table 1.5 2011-12 Energy Consumption (MUs) Energy Requirement (MUs) T&D Losses (MUs) & (%) 694304 904012 2016-17 1098995 1354874 2021-22 1611809 1904861

209708 (23.20) 255879 (18.90) 293052 (15.38)

The year-wise all India category-wise forecast of energy consumption, energy requirements, peak load T&D losses and load factor for XII & XIII Plan period is given below. Consumpt 2011 ion -12 Categorie s Domestic Commerci al & Misc. Public lighting Public Water Works 1746 34 7092 9 6971 1753 2 2012 -13 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718 201819 201920 202021 202122

1935 21418 23734 26220 28992 31533 33976 36622 39493 42614 71 9 7 2 4 5 2 4 9 8 7830 86494 95497 10547 11653 12809 14050 15415 16917 18572 8 2 5 9 6 3 3 2 7492 8054 8661 9315 10021 10675 11315 11995 12718 13488

1892 20436 22064 23829 25742 27651 29592 31677 33918 36329 7

Irrigation Industries LT Industries HT Railway traction Bulk Supply Total (Energy Consumpt ion)

1421 52 4733 9 1978 52 1437 4 2252 1 6943 04

1540 16642 17978 19455 21061 22504 23919 25433 27052 28792 10 5 4 9 1 4 4 8 4 6 5272 57977 63721 70010 76898 84096 91626 99714 10848 11798 2 0 4 2196 24005 26243 28669 31640 33922 36734 39799 43135 46783 07 7 7 9 8 8 1 1 8 5 1533 16437 17489 18635 19832 21055 22353 23714 25232 26810 9 2428 26154 28247 30523 33024 35759 38754 42027 45622 49566 8 7642 83622 91524 10012 10989 11869 12804 13818 14919 16118 63 4 9 44 95 42 44 33 63 09

T&D 2097 losses -MU 08 T&D losses -In % Energy Requireme nt - MU Annual Load Factor - % Peak Load-MW

2204 22934 23835 24683 25587 26404 27156 27895 28614 29305 80 7 7 6 9 0 4 0 5 2 20.66 19.78 18.89 18.20 17.50 16.80 16.09 15.38

23.20 22.39 21.52

9040 12

9847 10655 11536 12480 13548 14509 15520 16607 17781 19048 43 71 06 81 74 82 08 83 09 61 79.21 78.29 77.51 77.37 77.21 77.05 76.87 76.71

81.28 80.48 79.85

1269 59

1396 15232 16626 18198 19954 21409 22946 24606 26404 28347 82 9 0 8 0 3 5 8 1 0

Pattern of utilization of electricity The study of the pattern of utilization of electricity for 2009-10 indicates that the major part of consumption viz 35.34% is for the industrial category followed by 25.07% in domestic category whereas in the irrigation category the utilization is 21.02% and in commercial category the utilization is 10.16% and the remaining 8.40% is on account of consumption in other categories. The results of 18th EPS indicate that by the end of XII Plan, the trends is likely to marginally change and increase in the pattern utilization in domestic and commercial categories is anticipated whereas marginal decrease in the consumption in the irrigation category is expected. The summary of the All India pattern of utilization in the major categories of consumption is given below: All India Category wise Pattern of Utilization (%) Category Domestic Commercial 2009-10 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 25.07 10.16 25.15 10.22 26.38 10.60 26.44 11.52

Irrigation Industries Others

21.02 35.34 8.41

20.47 35.31 8.84

18.96 35.79 8.02

17.86 36.35 7.23

Break-up of Rural and Urban Electricity consumption: During the consultation with the state utilities most of the states indicated that separate feeders for meeting the rural & urban load requirements are not being provided. The information on the consumption in urban and rural areas have been submitted by a few states. Based on the available data and the details of consumption in respect of domestic, commercial categories, the pattern of utilization in rural and urban areas has been worked out. For this purpose the consumption in agriculture/irrigation is treated to be rural category. The region wise anticipated break-up of urban (domestic, commercial) consumption and rural consumption (domestic, commercial & rural) by the end of XII Plan (2016-17) is indicated below. Region/All India Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region All India Urban (%) Rural (%) 44.55 31.23 40.91 61.64 60.87 41.24 55.45 68.77 59.09 38.36 39.13 58.76

According to the EPS results on All India basis, the rural electricity consumption is likely to marginally decline from 60.89% in 2009-10 to 58.76% by the end of XII Plan 2016-17.