Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
No Hike In Sugar Import Duty: Government
Government has decided not to increase sugar import duty on both raw as well as white sugar for now. This news gives sellers a chance to made new short positions in NCDEX sugar futures. The decision taken in the GOM meeting held on Thursday evening as reported. It is totally a political decision not to increase sugar import duty as any hike in sugar import duty would increase the prices of sugar considering next year Lok Sabha elections. (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Feb 22, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19317 5850 54.28 93.13 1572.4

-0.04 -0.03 -0.36 0.31 -0.37

-0.78 -0.63 -0.08 -2.85 -2.26

-3.33 -3.28 1.03 -3.23 -7.11

6.46 6.27 10.39 -12.37 -11.16

.Source: Reuters

Govt mulls goodies for farmer firms

Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) are likely to get a significant relief in Budget 2013- 14, with the government considering giving these bodies income- tax exemptions hitherto available only to cooperative societies besides more scope to access funds. A senior official in the know confirmed this to Business Standard. At present, cooperatives enjoy income- tax relief under clause 80P. This could be extended to FPOs, too, since their functioning and nature are similar to those of coops, the official explained. An FPO is a company comprising only farmers and producers, but formed under the Indian Companies Act, 1956, as amended in 2002. These organisations are created both at the block and cluster levels. FPOs are different from cooperative societies in that these have only producers as members, unlike co- ops which are registered under the States Cooperative Society Act and in which even others can become members. However, at many places, FPOs are also named as cooperatives. The official said, among other proposals that the finance minister could consider was allowing FPOs to access funds through external commercial borrowings of up to $ 10 million, on a par with nongovernment organisations and non- banking financial companies. (Source:
Business Standard)

Early forecasts point to normal start for monsoon this year

Earliest available forecasts by a couple of international models suggest normal start to South-West monsoon for India this year. The European and US agency forecasts differed only in the respective assessment of deviation from normal rainfall trend. The European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees normal to slightly above normal rainfall pattern across regions. Central India (Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Karnataka) is likely to witness above normal rain. The ECMWF forecast was updated as on date while the comparable forecast from the US agency was dated last month. US agency considered here is International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University. The IRI said highest probabilities point to little deviation from the normal pattern of rainfall witnessed for India through the season. (Source: Business Line)

Rabi acreage marginally up this year

The planting of rabi or winter crops has ended with total acreage at 629.01 (lh) against last years 627.49 lh. In South India, water scarcity in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka hit rabi rice acreage, which stood at 27.14 lh (30.99 lh). Wheat acreage stood at 298.38 lh (298.61 lh), sorghum at 39.02 lh (37.81 lh) and total coarse cereals at 63.47 lh (60.47 lh). Acreage under gram registered an increase to 95.15 lh (91.87 lh), while the total pulses area stood at 151.65 lh (150.17 lh). The acreage under oilseeds stood at 88.37 lh (87.26 lh) with mustard acreage registering an increase to 67.26 lh (65.89 lh). (Source: Business Line)

Indias castor output seen at 3- year low of 1.14 mt

Lower yield due to inadequate water availability has affected the castor crop prospects in India, the worlds largest producer of the oilseed. According to the latest projections by Nielsen India, the countrys castor crop may slip to the lowest levels since 2010- 11 at around 1.14 mt for 2012- 13. The fall in castor production is attributed to a sharp fall in yield in Gujarat and Rajasthan, two major castor growing states, at around 29% and 11%, respectively. Total area under castor crop in the country has been registered at around 1.1 mn hectares (ha) this year against 1.14 mn ha, lower by about five per cent on year- on- year basis. However, the average yield for the year 2012- 13 is estimated to be 1,043 kg per ha against 1,373 kg per ha, showing a drop of 19%. (Source: Business Standard)

Fresh rains to break out over North-West

The train of western disturbances are being signalled to a stop as last in the recent series readies to call in over North-West India. They helped turn around a rain-deficit situation to surplus over most parts of the country, according to the latest available updates. Of the 35 meteorological sub-divisions, 23 have returned surplus and six normal until last week. IMD said deficient or scanty situation is confined just to three eastern States and the North-East. The IMD outlook said that rain or snow would lash Jammu and Kashmir Monday, Himachal Pradesh on Tuesday and scale up. Rain or thundershowers would break out over Punjab and North Haryana and at a few places, thereafter. The occasional wet regime is expected to move east in tandem with the parent western disturbance. Thundershowers may be unleashed over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, an IMD outlook said. (Source: Business Line)

FMC levies 20% margins on mentha oil to control price rise

Faced with widening spread between two contracts because of speculation, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has levied a 20 per cent special margin on mentha oil contract for delivery in February. The margin in the form of cash on long ( buy) side is being levied with effect from February 25. A circular issued by MCX also said FMC, the forwards and futures markets regulator, had banned fresh position in mentha oils February contract with immediate effect. Traders say the accredited quality control agency has rejected some of the mentha oil stock for delivery at a time when sellers have increased sell positions in the February contract on MCX. With the rejection of stock due to qualityrelated issues, those who have sold earlier failed in delivery, while buyers who are said to be exporters were insisting on delivery to complete their export commitments. This has lead to short- covering in the February contract, while prices in the spot market at Chandausi also went up because exporters who could not secure delivery on exchange came for buying in the spot market. According to the traders, the total area under mentha crop cultivation is expected to remain 20 per cent higher at 210,000 hectares this year against last years level of 175,000 ha. (Source: Business Standard)

Corn Inventory may Triple: USDA

US corn inventories before the 2014 harvest will triple to the highest since 1988 as output jumps to a record following the worst drought in seven decades, the government said. Stockpiles before next years harvest may rise to 2.177 billion bushels from a 17-year low of 632 million projected this year, the US Department of Agriculture said in a report. Yields may average 163.6 bushels an acre after dropping to 123.4 bushels last year. Production of the grain, the nations biggest crop, will rise 35% to a record 14.53 billion as consumption increases 16%. Rising supplies will mean lower feed costs for livestock producers, Peter Riley, an economist at the USDAs Farm Serve Agency, said (Source: Economic Times)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures as well as spot remained under downside pressure last week on account of increasing supplies in the domestic markets coupled with bumper output expectations. Chana spot as well as futures declined 1.87% and 0.23% respectively w-o-w. Arrivals will increase further in the coming days as harvesting will commence in full pace in MP. Ministry of Agriculture in its second advance estimates, have pegged, bumper chana output for 2012-13 season at 8.57 mn tn, up 11% from 2011-12 final estimates of 7.7 mn tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3623 3453 Prev day -0.16 0.52

as on Feb 23, 2013 % change WoW MoM -1.87 -8.28 -0.23 -4.72 YoY -5.90 -7.65

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22 February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 35.15 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up mainly in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and AP at 14.8 lakh ha, 11.12 lakh ha and 7.27 lakh ha respectively in these states. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. India needs imports as its domestic production is insufficient to meet the rising demand. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 25, 2013 Resistance 3465-3480

3420-3435

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Increasing arrival pressure may exert downside pressure on the chana prices in the coming days. However, sharp downside may be capped as demand will emerge at lower levels. Also, prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 as farmers will not liquidate their produce below these levels.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures that opened higher during the early part of the week on hopes that government may lift curbs on the highly controlled sugar sector, declined sharply after the governments decision to keep sugar import duty unchanged. Prices also declined as ISO forecasted higher global sugar surplus. The government on Friday said it has decided not to increase import duty on sugar though industry bodies and manufacturers had demanded a hike in the duty to 60% from the current 10% to curb shipment of the sweetener. Indias Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that they are favoring Food Ministrys proposal to increase the production tax on Sugar from the current Rs. 0.71/kg by Rs. 1.5/kg if mills were freed from an obligation to sell the sweetener at lower prices for public distribution. India's sugar production in the 2013/14 season is set to fall below consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims acreage in three key states. Food minister KV Thomas on Thursday said the government is likely to take a decision on decontrolling the sugar industry before the Budget. Food ministry has proposed dispensing with the regulatory release mechanism and abolishing the levy system.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3209

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.07 0.17 MoM -1.39 YoY 10.92

Rs/qtl

3086

-0.29

-0.80

-3.41

7.41

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 505.5 405.33

as on Feb 22, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.51 0.66 3.10 1.33 MoM 4.62 0.66 YoY -22.15 -29.19

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX March contract

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, India produced 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe white sugar as well as raw sugar futures on ICE recovered from lower levels on account of short covering ahead of the week and settled 1.51% settled 0.66% higher on Friday. A global surplus situation has led the prices to a sharp decline. Currently the prices are trading around their 2 year lows. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) last week had forecasted a global sugar surplus of 8.526 mn tn in 2012/13, up from 6.479 mn tn in 2011-12. It forecast that the sugar stocks-to-consumption ratio would rise to 40.56 percent in 2012/13 from 38.21 percent in 2011/12. Sugar traders are the most bullish since October on speculation that the slump in prices to the lowest in 2 1/2 years will spur Brazilian millers to make more biofuel and less of the raw sweetener from cane. Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel. If brazil cuts tax the ethanol parity to sugar may rise and thus the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may be 44 -45%, down from 49.6 % in the current period.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Mar NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Feb 25, 2013 Resistance 3095-3105

3060-3073

Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to remain under downside pressure until the government announces steps for decontrol of the sugar sector. Supplies of sugar in both domestic and international markets are huge and thus market need strong signals to bring an upside rebound in the prices. It may be in the form of sugar decontrol or yield concerns over next years output.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: After remaining firm during most part of the week,
Soybean March contract declined towards the week end on account of profit taking. Declining supplies coupled with good demand for soybean from the crushing industry for its meal was supporting an upside in the prices. Oil meal exports rose by almost 40 per cent to 7.68 lakh tonnes in January this year, industry body Solvent Extractors Association of India said. The export of oil meals, however declined by 18 per cent to 36.79 lakh tonnes in the first 10 months of this fiscal compared to 44.85 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. The country exported 25.36 lakh tn soybean meal in first 10 months compared to 30.82 lakh tn in the same period last year which showing a decline of 17.72%. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3416 3326 720.3 698.9

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change Prev day -0.76 -1.04 -0.58 -0.89 WoW 1.49 -0.33 -2.17 -5.02 MoM 2.52 2.17 -4.68 -4.21 YoY 31.38 26.22 -0.17 -3.19

Source: Reuters

as on Feb 22, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1461 50.35 Prev day -1.78 -1.87 WoW 2.58 -2.46 MoM 0.65 -3.97
Source: Reuters

YoY 14.86 -7.14

International Markets
Soybean Futures on CBOT declined sharply by 1.78% on Friday on account of higher ending stocks estimates coupled with active selling by farmers in the US Midwest. Rainfall this week in Argentina's top soy-producing province revived wilting crops as many entered important growth stages, but others were still in urgent need of rain. Argentina soybean acreage is estimated at 19.35 mn ha. U.S. farmers will harvest record soybean crops in 2013, ending three years of falling production and rebuilding nearly depleted stockpiles. German oilseeds analyst Oil World on Tuesday cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 mn tn to 50 mn tn from its Jan estimates because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 mn tn.

Crude Palm Oil

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.12 -0.26 2.06 2.21

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Mar '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Feb '13 Futures

Last 2478 457.2

MoM 2.74 4.34

YoY -22.95 -15.40

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and CPO declined on account of lower
palm oil export. Expected higher soy oil stocks in the US also exerted downside pressure on the prices. U.S. soybean processors say they have been pleasantly surprised by the high oil content of the latest U.S. soybean harvest, a factor that has contributed to strong profit margins and should pad year-end soy oil inventories. India's vegetable oil imports soared 27 percent from a month ago to an all-time high in January on purchases of cheap palm oil. To curb imports, the tariff value of crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%.

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3788 3445 Prev day -0.32 0.03

as on Feb 23, 2013 WoW -4.10 -0.09 MoM -7.94 -0.86

Source: Reuters

YoY 4.09 -6.64

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX March contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures settled lower by 0.32% on

account of long liquidation. Rains in the mustard growing regions have raised concerns over delay in the harvesting and arrivals of the new crop. Mustard seed sowing is now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean may remain firm on account lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, weak international markets may cap sharp upside in the prices. Mustard seed may remain weak on higher output expectations. CPO may trade firm on expectations of palm oil exports to improve gradually while output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Mar NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Mar Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Feb 25, 2013 Support 692-695 3280-3300 3395-3420 452-455 Resistance 703-707 3350-3370 3465-3485 461-463

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper March Futures traded on a positive note last week on account of low stocks, thin supplies and delayed harvesting due to lack of skilled laborers. However, the spot remained in the negative as the pace of the arrivals started to improve. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.72% lower while the Futures settled 2.53% higher w-o-w. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,950/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnams Austa is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Austa is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 40527 37835 % Change Prev day -0.05 0.41

as on Feb 23, 2013 WoW -0.72 -5.06 MoM 1.88 -0.92 YoY 19.42 8.61

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX March contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Total exports in 2012 were forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Mar Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Feb 25, 2013 Support 37180-37510 Resistance 38080-38330

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 37 tonnes while off takes were reported at 35 tonnes on Saturday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to continue to trade on a positive note today on account of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels. However, any improvement in arrivals will cap sharp upside.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a negative note last week as the arrivals of the new crop have pressurized over the last few days. The arrivals of new crop are around 7,000-8,000 bags/day and are expected to increase in the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 2.25% and 2.79% lower w-o-w. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,975-$3,000 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13675 13130 Prev day -0.69 -2.23

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change WoW -2.25 -2.79 MoM -2.98 -2.34 YoY -5.69 -7.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 9,000 tn on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.52

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5433 6154

WoW -0.70 -3.57

MoM -0.36 -0.74

YoY 20.80 30.33

Outlook
Jeera Futures is expected to decline today as higher arrivals may pressurize prices. However, demand from domestic traders and millers may cushion a sharp downside. Overseas demand at lower levels may also support prices at lower levels. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures declined last week due to supplies of the new crop coupled with higher carryover stocks. However, the decline in the spot was cushioned due to lower output expectations. Prices have gained over the last few days due to some unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh coupled with output concerns. There is good demand from local buyers and stockists. The Spot settled as well as the Futures settled 0.7% and 3.57% lower w-o-w.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 20,000 bags respectively on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade on a negative note today. Higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, lower output concerns and demand from stockists at lower levels is expected to support prices at lower levels.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Feb 25, 2013

Support 12770-12950 6070-6110 Resistance 13360-13550 6210-6270

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| February 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Kapas futures and MCX Cotton gained significantly during the last week on improved demand and expectations that China may release fresh import quota. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier. The Cotton Advisory Board, which met in Mumbai on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) will be 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October at 334 lakh bales. Also, exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports. ICE Cotton futures closed marginally higher by 0.1% on Friday. Prices hae rd declined for the 3 consecutive week after touching a 9 month high due to lower world demand. However, expectations of good demand from China have supported prices at lower levels. There is strong demand from China. US Cotton acreage is likely to go down by 27% which may also support prices in the international markets. Strong weekly export sales figures also supported prices last week.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 1003 18010

as on Feb 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW MoM 2.98 8.55 10.40 1.12 4.41 4.41 YoY #N/A 6.51

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Feb Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 81.39 81.35

as on Feb 22, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.10 0.09 0.00 0.00 MoM 1.83 0.00 YoY -8.11 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
Source: Telequote
th

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Feb contract

Global Cotton Updates

U.S. growers will harvest the smallest cotton crop in four years and notch the smallest exports in 12 years as world demand for the fiber drops, especially in China. At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected a crop of 14 million bales from planted acreage of 10 million acres. Plantings would be the smallest in four years and down 19 percent from last year. The crop, projected to be down 18 percent from 2012, would be the smallest since 2009. China is planning to issue more cotton import quotas to exportdependent textile mills that are struggling to protect margins as domestic prices soar due to a state stockpiling plan. However, according to USDA, the world's largest cotton grower and user, will import the smallest amount of cotton, 8 million bales, in five years in 2013/14 as it copes with huge domestic reserves.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Feb 25, 2013 Support 975-990 17600-17800 Resistance 1020-1035 18170-18330

Outlook
Kapas/Cotton is expected to trade on a positive note today on expectations that China may release higher import quota. Also, expected lower US cotton acreage and output in 2013-14 may also support an upside in the cotton prices.

www.angelcommodities.com