Unit 6: Climate Change and Damage: Problem

UNIT 1 Introduction to Port and Shipping
1
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Unit 6 Climate Change and Damage : Problem

Objectives
After completion of this unit, the students will be aware of the following topics:

___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Introduction
The global climate ties together the atmosphere, oceans, land surfa.ce as well as animal and plant ecosystems.' In the most aggregate of terms, "climate" may be defined as "the organized summary over time or the planetary land, atmosphere and water system".' It is inainlymainly repelleddriven by the energy renderedprovided by the sunlightsun (radiation). The solar powersolar energy that does not reflect off clouds and snow is engagedabsorbed by the atmospheresurroundings and the Earth's surface of the Earth. As the surface warms, it sends infrared radiation, or beat, back tc.)wards space, To fully realizeunderstand global warmingclimate change and the significancesimplications of the anthropogenic greenhouse warminggreenhouse effect, it is significantimportant to make differentiationstinguish between "climate!' and "weather". The weather is the fluctuating state or the atmospheresurroundings around us, characterisedcharacterized by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds, etc. Climate denotesrefers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span in a. certain area.' Thus, a multitude of extreme weather events or patterns call indicatea multitude of extreme weather events or patterns call indicates a
IT Applications in Port and Shipping
2
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
change in the climate system. .1'his system is dynamic and has changed considerablysubstantially in the history of the Earth..5 These changes are captured by the phrase climate variability. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. It can be due tobecause of natural internal processes (such as solar activity), anthropogenic influences or "forcing".
Climate change
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. The Earth is the only planet in our solar system that enduressupports life. The compositecomplex procedureprocess of developmentevolution happenedoccurred on Earth only on account ofbecause of some unparalleledunique environmental conditions that were present: water, an oxygen-rich atmospheresurroundings, and a suitable surface temperature. Mercury and Venus, the two planets that lie between Earth and the sun, do not support life. This is because Mercury has no atmospheresurroundings and thereforethough becomes very hot during the day, while temperatures at night may reach 140 C. Venus, has a thick atmospheresurroundings which traps more heat than it allows to escape, making it too hot (between 150 and 450C) to sustain life. MerelyOnly the Earth has an atmospheresurrounding of the proper depth and chemical composition. About 30% percent of incoming energy from the sunlightsun is ponderedreflected back to space while the remainderrest reaches the earth, warming the air, oceans, and land, and keepingmaintaining an average Earth's surfacesurface temperature of about 15C. The chemical composition of the atmospheresurrounding is also responsible for raisingnurturing life on our planet. Most
3
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
of it is nitrogen (78%); about 21% percent is oxygen, which all creaturesanimals need to survive; and only a small percentageof (0.036%percent) is made up of carbon dioxide which plants needrequire for photosynthesis. The atmospheresurrounding accomplishescarries out the critical function of preservingmaintaining life-sustaining considerationsconditions on Earth, in the complyingfollowing way: each day, energy from the sun (largely in the visible part of the spectrum, but also some in the ultraviolet, and infra red portions) is engagedabsorbed by the land, mountains and seas, mountains, etc. If all this energy were to be absorbed completely, the earth would gradually become hotter and hotter. But in realityactually, the earth both engagesabsorbs and, simultaneously releases it in the form of infra red waves (which cannot be encounteredseen by our eyes but can be sensedfelt as heat, for examplefor instance the heat that you can feel with your passeshands over a heated car engine). All this rising heat is not lost to space, but is partly engagedabsorbed by some gases present in very small (or trace) quantities in the atmospheresurrounding, called GreenHouseGasses (greenhouse gases). Greenhouse gasesGHG (for examplefor instance, water vapour, ozone ,carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide , methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour, ozone), re-emit some of this heat to the earth's surface of the earth. If they did not executeperform this practicableuseful function, most of the heat energy would outflowescape, leaving the earth cold (about -18C) and unfit to affirmsupport life. HoweverAlthough, of all timeever subsequentlysince the Industrial Revolution startedbegan about one hundred fifty150 years ago, man-made activities have added substantialsignificant quantities of GHGs to the atmospheresurrounding. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have grown by about 31%, 151% and 17%, respectively, between 1750 and 2000 (IPCC 2001).
4
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Source: http://envfor.nic.in/cc/graphics/what2.gif The Earths surface of Earth temperature is depictedshown year by year (shown in red bars) and roughlyapproximately decade by decade shown in (black line, a filtered annual curve inhibitingsuppressing variationsfluctuations below near decadal time-scales). There are uncertainties in the yearlyannual data (thin black whisker bars represent the 95% percent confidence range) due tobecause of data gaps, ergodicrandom instrumental errors and uncertainties, doubtsuncertainties in bias corrections in the ocean surface temperature informationdata and also in adjustments for urbanisation over the land. Over both the last one hundred forty140 years yrs and hundred100 years, the best figureestimate is that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 0.2 CelsiusC. Source IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (The Scientific Basis,Summary for Policymakers) An additionincrease in the levels of GHGs Green House Gases could contributelead to biggergreater heatingwarming, which, successivelyin turn, could have an affectimpact on to the climate of the world's climate, contributingleading to the processphenomenon known termed as climate changeglobal climate change. SurelyIndeed, scientists have observed that over the 20th century, the mean global surface temperature increased by 0.6 C (IPCC 2001). They also discoveredobserved that since 1860 (the year temperature began to be recorded systematically using a thermometer), the 1990's have been the warmest decade.
5
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
HoweverAlthough, versionsvariations in temperature have also happenedoccurred in the past timespast - the most beneficialbest recognizedknown is the Little Ice Age that struck Europe in the early Middle Ages, producingbringing about famines, etc. It is consequentlytherefore unmanageabledifficult to influencedetermine whether current observancesobservations of increasing temperature are because ofdue to natural variancesvariabilities or whether they have been forced by anthropogenic (man-made) activities. TechnologicalScientific analyzesstudies and projections are advancedfurther rarifiedcomplicated by the conceptfact that the modificationschanges in temperature that they have been discoveringobserving do not take placeoccur uniformly over unlikedifferent layers of the lower atmospheresurrounding or even dissimilardifferent parts of the Earthearth. The Earth's climate system of the Earth perpetuallyconstantly conformsadjusts so assince to holdmaintain a residualbalance between the energy that accomplishesreaches it from the sunlightsun and the energy that goes from EarthEarth back to outer spacespace. This signifiesmeans that yeteven a lowsmall rise in temperature could mean accompanying changes in cloud cover and wind formspatterns. Some of these modificationschanges may enhance the warming (positive feedback), while others may underminecounteract it (negative feedback). Negative feedback (causing resulting a cooling effect) may leadresult from to an growthincrease in the tierslevels of aerosol containeraerosols (small particles of matter or liquid that can be produced by natural or man-made activities). Positive feedback may effectresult from to an raiseincrease in water vapour (because ofdue to greater vaporizationevaporation with temp rise), which itself is a GHG green house gases and can further moreover add to the warming effect. All the elementsfactors identifieddescribed above elaboratecomplicate the functionwork of scientists who try to predict the fallout of global climate changeclimate change. Despite these uncertainties, the Third Assessment Report
6
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
published by the IPCC states, 'there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities' (IPCC 2001).
THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND DEVELOPMENTAL resultsconsequences of climate changeglobal climate change have received increasing identificationrecognition worldwideglobally. The Stern Review (2006) annotationsnotes that climate changeglobal climate warming is a severeserious and pressingurgent problemissue, global in its cause and effectsconsequences. Current actions are not adequateenough if we are to stabilize greenhouse gases (GHGs) at any acceptable level. The economic challengesopportunities are complex and will require a longterm international collaboration to tackle them. The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeGlobal climate warming (IPCC) also unconditionallycategorically states that the impacts of climate changeglobal climate warming will vary regionally, but aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likelyprobably to impose net annual costs that will increase over time as global temperatures increase (IPCC 2007). The Kyoto Protocol persistsremains the key international mechanism process under which the industrial countriesnations have committed to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (see box 1.1). A number of consequencesissues howeverstill requireneed to be settledresolved with regard to the efficient implementationexecution of emissions reducingreduction endsgoals. ThoughAlthough 172 countriesnations and a regional economicaleconomic consolidationintegration organization (the European Economic Community) are parties to the agreement (representing over 61 percent of emissions), merelyonly a few industrialiszed countriesnations are in realityactually required to cut their emissions. (see appendix 1 in this report for a list of Kyoto Protocol signatories and their emission targets). The United StatesU.S, which is the worlds most prominentlargest emitter, and Australia have not ratified the Protocol. The United StatesU.S has specifiedconditioned its entranceentry on boostfurther
7
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
participationengagement of major nationdeveloping country emitters, such aslike China and India.
8
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ BOX 1-1 The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force on February 16, 2005, following ratification by Russia. As of May 11, 2007, 172 countries and the regional economic integration organization (European Economic Community) have ratified, accepted, approved, or acceded to the Kyoto Protocol. The UNFCCC includes the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Under the principle, as stipulated in Article 3, paragraph 1, of the UNFCCC, the parties agreed that (i) the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries; (ii) per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low; and (iii) the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs. Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries (called Annex I countries) have to reduce their combined emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 200812. Annex I countries include the industrialized countries that were members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (the EIT parties), including the Russian Federation, the Baltic states, and several Central and Eastern European states. Countries that have accepted greenhouse gas emissions reduction obligations must submit an annual greenhouse gas inventory. NonAnnex I countries (developing countries) that have ratified the Protocol do not have to commit to specific targets because they face potential technical and economic constraints. Nevertheless, they have to report their emissions levels and develop national climate change mitigation programs. Although the average emissions reduction is 5 percent, each country agreed to its own specific target. Within the Annex I countries, differentiated national targets range from 8 percent reductions for the European Union (EU) to a 10 percent allowable increase in emissions for Iceland. Further, while Annex I countries must put in place domestic policies and measures to achieve their targets, the Protocol does not oblige governments to implement any particular policy, instead allowing countries to seek optimal ways to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction and to adjust their climate change strategies to the circumstances of their economies. The Protocol defines three flexibility mechanisms to help Annex I parties lower the overall costs of achieving emissions targets. The three mechanismsJoint Implementation (JI), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and emissions tradingallow them to reduce emissions, or increase greenhouse gas removals, in other countries, where it can be done more cheaply than at home. Source: UNFCCC, Essential Background, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/2877.php.
9
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
In countriesnations that have startedbegun to implementexecute the Kyoto regime, this inequalitydisparity in commitments has fueled a debate on issues problems of competitiveness and other economic impacts. Business concernBusinesses in many Kyoto-implementexecuting countriesnations have already started to advocateurge their governments to ease competitive pressures through measures such as a border tax. A recent European Commission report suggests taxing goods imported from countriesnations that do not impose a CO2 cap on their industry as a way to compensate for the costs of climate changeglobal climate change measures. Stiglitz (2006) advocates that Europe, Japan, and others adhering to the Kyoto Protocol should restrictban or tax the import of American goods to make up for the fact that U.Snited Nations. producers do not incur Green House Gasesconcernedrelated costs of outputproduction and, thereforethough, produce goods that are less creditworthyresponsible towardstoward the surroundingsenvironment. Unlike some other different worldwideglobal environmental pactstreatiessuch aslike the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Wipe outDeplete the Ozone Layerthe Kyoto Protocol does not contain explicit trade standardsmeasures to enforce compliance. Nor does it stipulate specific methods by which the members should design and implementexecute policies to address climate changeglobal climate change commitments. Nevertheless, as this study demonstrates, the disparity in effort between developed countriesnations is leading to concerns about competitiveness and rulesprinciples of equity. In turn, these concerns lead to much speculation about whether Kyoto ought to should arisedevelop trade sanctions, or whether other Kyoto-supportive trade measures are appropriate to protect those industries that are absorbing the cost of GHGreducing technologies. As a effectresult, there is additional speculation about a potential conflict between the Kyoto and WTO regimes (Brewer 2003; Georgieva and Mani 2006; Loose 2001). DilutingReducing dischargesemissions in industrializedindustrial countriesnations is just one 1 side of
10
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
the story. It is goingbecoming increasingly clear that growingdeveloping countriesnations will drive the future of global economic growthdevelopment. QuotesEstimates depictshow that by 2030, about one-halfhalf or more of the buyingpurchasing abilitypower of the global economic systemeconomy will stem from the developing world. Their share in world GDP Gross Domestic Product could reach 60 percent % in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) and their contributionshare in world trade aboutalmost fifty50 percent %. (World Bank 2007b). These enhancesincreases have important implications for both Green House Gases emissions and any nextfuture climate governmentregime. AlthoughThough highly-developeddeveloped countriesnations stay onremain the biggestlargest per capita emitters of greenhouse gases nowadaystoday, the growth of carbon dischargesemissions in the next decades will come mainlyprimarily from arisingdeveloping countriesnations, which are following the same energy- and carbon-intensive growthdevelopment trackpath as their productiverich counterparts have acteddone. Among the developing countriesnations, the greatest increase in carbon emissions will emanate from China India and China and India because ofDue to their size and growth. It is projected that, between 2020 and 2030, developing country emissions of carbon from energy use will exceed those of developed countriesnations. Any kind of post-Kyoto international regime that will emerge to address climate changeglobal climate change cannot ignore these startling facts.
11
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
FIGURE 7.1 CO2 EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY USE, 2002 TO 2030
Climate, Weather and Green House Effect

Greenhouse gasesGHG are those that can assimilateabsorb and emit infrared emissioninfrared radiation. In order, the amplestmost abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmospheresurrounding are:

ozone (O3) methane (CH4) water vapor (H2O) carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) carbon dioxide (CO2)
ozone (O3)
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasesGHG are influenceddetermined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human actionhuman activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the atmospheresurrounding by conversion to a different chemical compound). The balanceproportion of an emission left overremaining in the atmospheresurrounding after a intendedspecified time is the "Airborne fraction" (AF). More exactlyprecisely, the yearlyannual AF is the proportionratio of the atmosphericalatmospheric gainincrease in a given yryear to that years total dischargesemissions. For CO2 the AF over the last fifty50 yrsyears (19562006) has been raisingincreasing at 0.25 0.twenty-one21%/percent/yryear.
12
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
FIGURE: THE GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
The sharecontribution of each gas to the greenhouse warminggreenhouse effect is impactedaffected by the featurescharacteristics of that gas, its copiousnessabundance, and any collateralindirect effects impacts it may havecause. For exampleFor instance, on a molecule-for-molecule basis the direct radiative effects of methane is about 72 times stronger than carbon dioxide over a twenty20 yryear time frame but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is smaller, and it has a shorter atmospheric lifespanlifetime. On the other handside, in add-onaddition to its direct radiative impact methane has a large indirect radiative effect because it contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. (2005) indicateargue that the contribution to climate changeglobal climate change from methane gas is at the leastat least double formerprevious figuresestimates as a result of this effect. When these blowsgases are ratedranked by their conductdirect sharecontribution to the greenhouse warminggreenhouse effect, the most important are: Gas Water vapor Formula Contribution (%) H 2O 36 72 %
13
Notes
Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone
CO2 CH4 O3
9 26 % 49% 37%
___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
In add-onaddition to the main greenhouse emissiongreenhouse gases numberedlisted above, other greenhouse emissiongreenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons. and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For exampleFor instance, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only confrontpresent in very small measuresquantities.
Technology Options to Stabilize Greenhouse Gas Emissions

One of the effectsissues frequentlyoften talked aboutdiscussed in relativerelation to climate changeglobal climate change mitigation is the stabilization of greenhouse emissiongreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmospheresurrounding. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGlobal climate change (UNFCCC) has the ultimate objective of preventing "dangerous" anthropogenic (i.e., human) interference of the climate system. As is stated in Article 2 of the Convention, this needsrequires that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are bracedstabilized in the atmospheresurrounding at a level where ecosystems can adapt of coursenaturally to climate changeglobal climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development growth can continueproceed in a sustainable fashiondevelopment. A differentiationdistinction requiresneeds to be made between stabilizing GHG emissions and GHG Green House Gases concentrations. The two are not the same. The most important Green House GasesGHG emitted by human actionhuman activities is carbon dioxide (chemical formula: CO2Carbon Dioxide). Stabilizing emissions of Carbon DioxideCO2 at current levels would not lead to a stabilization in the atmospheric concentration of Carbon DioxideCO2. In
14
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ FIG: STABILIZING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AT THEIR PRESENT LEVEL WILL NOT STABILIZE ITS CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE
fact, stabilizing emissions at current levels would result in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 carbon dioxide continuing to rise over the twenty-first21st century and beyond (see the graphs opposite).
The arguereason for this is that human actionhuman activities are adding CO2 Carbon dioxide to the atmospheresurrounding far faster than natural actionnatural processes can move outremove it (see carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere for a more complete explanation). This is analogous to a flow of water into a bathtub. So long as the tap runs water (correspondentanalogous to the emission of CO2carbon dioxide) into the tub quickerfaster than water escapes through the plughole (the natural removal of carbon dioxide from the atmospheresurrounding), then the level of H2Owater in the tub (analogous to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmospheresurrounding) will keepcontinue to on rise. SteadyingStabilizing the atmosphericalatmospheric absorptionconcentration of the other greenhouse emissiongreenhouse gases humans breatheemit also depends upondepends on how quickfast their dischargesemissions are increasedadded to the atmospheresurrounding, and how fast the GHGs are removed. Stabilization for these gases is described in the later section on non-CO2GHGs. In the Recent epochrecent litliterature, Socolow and others (2004) have used these technologies to identify schemesstrategies that are climate friendly. They introduce the concept of stabilization wedges, which is helpful in understanding the scale of the challenge in order to stabilize carbon emissions by 2054
15
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
aiming at a Carbon dioxideCO2 atmospheric concentration of five hundred500 ppm. Each forcewedge results in a diminutionreduction in the rate of carbon emissions of 1 onebillion tons of carbon per year by 2054, resulting in twenty-five25 billion tons over fifty50 yrsyears. Put differentlyIn other words, each wedge has the potential to reduce emissions by an increasing amount per year, starting at very low levels now and reaching one1 gigaton/ (Gt) annuallyper year by 2054, by which time emissions of Carbon dioxideCO2 will have been reduced by a cumulative twentyfive25 gigatonGt. The Socolow study analyzedexamined fifteen15 such schemesstrategies, each based on a known technology with a potential to addcontribute to carbon mitigation (box 1.2). For exampleFor instance, a wedge from renewable electricity replacing coal-based power is useableavailable from a fifty50-fold elaborationexpansion of wind by 2054 or a 700fold expansion of solar photovoltaics relative to nowadaystoday. More latelyrecently, the IPCC Working Group III (IPCC 2007) also demandedcalled for a blendmix of policy instruments and incentives to reduce GHG Green House Gases emissions to a manageable 450 ppm. Specifically, the report proposessuggests the following:
n Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies, and processes, including economic instruments, regulation (e.g., standards), and government funding and tax credits. Integrating climate policies into broader development policies would facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
n It is economically executablefeasible to blockhalt, and
perhapspossibly contraryreverse, the developmentgrowth in global GHG Green house gases emissions in order to stabilize their atmospheric concentrations. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be marketedcommercialized earlierbefore 2030 include integrated design of commercial buildings, carbon capture and storage, advanced nuclear power, renewable energy
16
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
(e.g., tidal and wave energy), advanced electric and hybrid vehicles and 2ndsecond-generation biofuels, advanced electric and hybrid vehicles, and integrated design of commercial buildings.
n Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-Greenhouse gases products, processes and technologies, including tax credits ,economic instruments, regulation (e.g., standards), and government funding . Integrating climate policies into broader development policies would facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
n AdministrationsGovernments must invest more in energy
research and development (R&D) to deliver low-GHG grren house gases technologies. Successful GHG Green house gases mitigation approaches, howeverAlthough, need to support developing countriesnations economic and social development needs and institutional, financial, and technical capacity. These countriesnations cannot take on the same commitments as the developed countriesnations as they often lack institutional, financial, and technical capacity, which will influence their ability to implementexecute and comply with climate commitments.
17
Notes
BOX 1-2 Summary List of Technologies Considered Wedges for Climate Change Mitigation 1. End-user efficiency and conservation

as
___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Increase fuel economy of automobiles Reduce automobile use by telecommuting, mass transit, urban design Reduce electricity use in homes, offices, and stores
2. Power generation

Increase efficiency of coal-fired plants Increase gas baseload power (reduce coal baseload power)
3. Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Install CCS at large, baseload coal-fired plants Install CCS at coal-fired plants to produce hydrogen for vehicles Install CCS at a coal-to-synfuels power plant
4. Alternative energy sources

Increase nuclear power (reduce coal) Increase wind power (reduce coal) Increase photovoltaic power (reduce coal) Use wind to produce hydrogen for fuel cell cars Substitute biofuels for fossil fuels
5. Agriculture and fisheries
Reduce deforestation, increase afforestation, add plantations
reforestation
and
Increase conservation tillage in cropland
Source: Pacala and Socolow 2004. In summationaddition, developing countriesnations must carry ondeal with poverty and other social challengesopportunities, and they may be loathreluctant to adopt restrictive prohibitive policies that could limit economic processeconomic growth and pose any menacethreat to
18
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
energy security.As a result, climate changeglobal climate change may rank as a low political priority. HoweverAlthough, developing countriesnations are also more vulnerable to the impacts of climate changeglobal climate warming. Their economies are more dependent on climatesensitive sectors such aslike agriculture and forestry, and they lack the infrastructure or resources to respond to the results of changes in climate. ThereforeHence, any marketdriven mechanism that facilitates the transfer of clean techtechnology at the same time entailing minimumminimal costs to the developing countriesnationseconomiesmay be consideredviewed more favorably than the more orthodoxmore traditional command-and-control regimes.
Modern Climate Science

Climate scientific researchscience is a assortmentmixture of many fieldsdisciplines, such aslike physics, , geography, oceanography, physics, oceanography, etc. The polarpivotal organisation in climate science nowadaystoday is the IPCC.
The Role of the IPCC on Climate Change

With the lotsmanyof technologicalscientific uncertainties leftremaining, and the climate changeglobal climate warming argumentdebate howeverstill rampingraging in some bandscircles, what should anyone believe, and whose opinion can be trusted? UCS bases its policy positions on the best available science. Obviously, new scientific determinationsfindings are arrived atmade every week by investigatorsresearchers, but there are benchmarks that help gauge where the science stands. Probably the most important benchmark comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In order thatIn order to evaluate evaluating the huge numberamount of issuedpublished technologicalscientific effectsresults on climate changeglobal climate warming science, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme establishlaid downed, in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluateassess the latest scientific and technical information about global warming.
19
Notes
The projecttask of the Intergovernmental Panel is to evaluateassess the technical and scientific and technical selective informationinformation about climate changeglobal climate warming in a comprehensive, objective and transparent, and objective manner. The studiesreports of the Panel are made potentialpossible through the cooperation of the scientific community around the world. Hundreds of scientific and technical experts were involved in preparing the Panel's 2001 studyreport, and literally 1000sthousands more were enlistedengaged to provide objective peer review. The playersparticipants were drawn from academia, from private and national research laboratories, from industry and from non-governmental organizations. The Panel makes a concerted effort to include the broadest possible range of valid scientific opinion. SurelyIndeed, the credibility of the Panel in the eyes of both governments and the scientific residential areacommunity rests on its dedicationcommitment to providing the most up-to-date, balanced scientific information that truly pondersreflects the state of human understanding of climate change scientific researchscience. HoweverStill, the IPCC has frequentlyoften been incriminatedaccused of being an grimimplacable stonemonolith and of having enforcedimposed a dogma of contrived consensus for politically motivated reasons. Some scientists, even within the climate community, have expressed reservations concerningregarding the "consensus science" produced by the Panel. AlthoughThough the Panel has no setupapparatus to refute these claims, one may address these concerns by considering the procedureprocess by which the reports are produced. The Panel has no lastingpermanent bureaucratismbureaucracy except a littlesmall SecretariateSecretariat, which is responsibleresponsible for logisticlogistical categorizationcoordination. The Panel relies entirely on the support of the technical and scientific and technical communities to developproduce its studiesreports. Peer review is an essentialsubstantive component of the judgmentassessment process. To ensureascertain integrity,
___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
20
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
participation was considerably elaboratedexpanded for the 2001 3rdThird Assessment to over 2,500 scientists representing more than one hundred100 countriesnations, up from 200 scientists representing 40 countriesnations for the first report in 1990. Among those contributing and reviewing the Third Assessment Report were scientists who generally dissent from the evidence of global climate changeglobal climate warming. The decisionsconclusions of the studyreport themestem from the analytic thinkinganalysis of over 20,000 articles from the relevant literature. The scientists try to reconcile competing views through workshops and peer review if possible. WheneverWhen they cannot reach consensus, the scientists qualifycharacterize the disagreements and distinguishidentify the issues that need clearingclarification bythrough additional research. HenceThus, the 3rdThird Assessment StudyReport should be seen for what it is: a monolithicmassive, policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive review of the current state of matterstate of understanding of climate change science. As the newlynew scientific bench markbenchmark, it functionsserves as the basis for international climate negotiations. ROLE OF IPCC IN CRUX
The IPCC does not carry any research nor does it supervise climate linked data or parameter Render scientific methodological and technical advice to the UNFCCC Collects and assesses for the use of decisionmakers the best available scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the risk of Climate ChangeGlobal climate warming, potential impacts and response options. Provide scientific technical and methodological advice to the UNFCCC The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameter
Contribution to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
21
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)draws togetherbrings together lotsmany of the world's guidingleading scientists to carryconduct comprehensive examinationcomprehensive judgmentsassessments of the current state of know-howknowledge on climate changeglobal climate warming and its possiblepotential environmental and socio-economic consequences. TheIPCC publishes its assessments in reports that are extensively reviewed by both the scientific community and governments from around the world. The IPCC released itsFourth Assessment Report in 2007 and will release its Fifth Assessment Report in 2013-2014. Canadais an active participant in the IPCC. Many Canadian experts from authoritiesgovernment, schoolsuniversities, the private sector plusand other organizations make substantialsignificant contributions to the preparation of IPCC assessment studiesreports. Canada also has members on the IPCC Bureau, theTask Force Bureau on National Greenhouse Gas StocksInventories and the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis. Environment Canada, as the parthub for climate changeglobal climate change science and research in Canada, is a prominent contributor to the IPCC. Environment Canadas scientists have functionedserved lead roles in each of the IPCCs four comprehensive assessment reports and extendcontinue to functionserve in this capacity for the 5thFifth Assessment Report (refer to the list of Canadian experts selected for guidelead roles in the 5thFifth Assessment Report). Environment Canada is also contributing projectsprojections of nextfuture climate, from climate models formulateddeveloped by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), in support of a globally coordinated process to develop new climate changeglobal climate change scenarios for the 5thFifth Assessment Report. Canadas involvementparticipation in the IPCC is organizedcoordinated by anIPCC Focal Point for Canada establishedbased at Environment Canada. The Focal Point functionsserves as a fundamentalcentral point of contact in Canada to link the IPCC with the Canadian
22
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
technologicalscientific community and the Government of Canada. Main responsibilities of IPCC Focal Points include presentingsubmitting expert nominations for IPCC activities, modifyingenabling the work of playersparticipants in the IPCC process, and coordinating integrated administrationgovernment comments on IPCC reports.
Projections of Climate Change

SinceBecause we can'tnobody can experienceknow the futurityfuture surelyfor certain, scientists use computerestablishedbased climate frameworksmodels to designproject plausible scenarios for the coming century and beyond. LatelyRecently, the IPCC formulateddeveloped a serial publicationseries of twenty-four24 future climate changeglobal climate change projections, a much broader set than previously believedconsidered. This elaboration was intendproposed to convey a broader arrayrange of possibilities while accounting for the important uncertainties still undischargedoutstanding. The assumptionsscenarios are based on a range of estimatesestimations of heat-trappinggas and aerosol dischargesemissions and assumptions about future population, energy use, economic growthdevelopment, land use changes, and so on. The IPCC sortedgrouped these twenty-four24 assumptionsscenarios into six6 "categoriesfamilies" and indicatedshowed each laid outrepresented in a line graphical recordgraph jointlytogether with an earlier reference scenario (IS92a). In the charts below, you see the projections for each of these scenarios regarding changes in Carbon dioxideCO2 emissions, the resulting SO2 emissions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, SO2 emissions, temperature change and sea-level rise between 1990 and 2100. Take the red dashed line -- the A1T scenario -- for examplefor instance( - - -).
23
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Chart (a) This red line basically statessays that CO2 emissions will be radically reduced after about 2040
___________________
Chart (b) tells us that merelyonly those kinds of radical dischargeemission diminutionsreductions will lead to a stabilized Carbon dioxideCO2 concentration in the atmospheresurrounding.
24
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
that this reduction would be came withaccompanied by a strong reduction in SO2 - probably due tobecause of a reduction in burning coal and other Carbon dioxideCO2- and SO2-rich fossil fuels.
Chart
(c) statessays
Chart (d) then suggestsindicates that with such strong diminutionsreductions we would still see a temperature increase, but a smallermore modest one than under some of the other scenarios, and that the heatingwarming movementtrend would level off late in the twenty-first21st century.
25
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Chart (e), eventuallyfinally, shows how this degree of warming would produce a mid-range assumptionscenario of sea-level rise. Because ofDue to the slow response of the oceans to atmospheric warming, that upward trend is still continuing and will proceedcontinue for many more years after heat-trapping gases are steadiedstabilized and the upwardsupward temperature trend levels off. The developinggrowing empiricempirical manifestevidence of climate changeglobal climate change that is consistent with model projections, and other recent advances in the understanding of climate science have led to increased assuranceconfidence in the use of global circulation models to project future climate changeglobal climate change, but predicting the future remains inherently risky. The current estimationestimate of the IPCC is that an flamingunmitigated rise in atmospheric greenhouse emissiongreenhouse gas absorptionsconcentrations will cause temperatures to ariserise between 2.4 and 10.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the twenty-first21st century. This projection is significantly biggerlarger than what the panel anticipatedpredicted in 1996 at the time of its second assessment report, mainlyprimarily based on improved models and the assumed step-downreduction of aerosol emissions (most of which have a cooling effect). As a result of this warming, scientists predict:
26
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Sea level could ariserise by 3.5 to 34.6 inches between 1990 and 2100, making coastal groundwater saltier, endangering wetlands, and floodinginundating worthfulvaluable land and coastal communities;
Changes in precipitation formspatterns could have a significantimportant affectimpact, particularlyespecially in already water-scarce areasregions that are likelyprobably to suffer from further decreasing rainfall; The ranges and abundance of plants and animate beinganimals could varychange dramatically under varyingchanging climate conditions, and some of them are likelyprobably to be ineffectiveunable to adapt or migrate to new locations; Future adverseFuture negative affectsimpacts from proposedprojected climate changeglobal warming also include possible increases in forest productivity for very modest temperature increases but likelyprobably severe stress on forestsfor rapid and greater warming; There could also be serious human health impacts, such aslike from enhancingincreasing heat emphasizestress, decliningworsening air pollution, declining water quality, and the spread of communicable diseaseinfectious diseases into areasregions antecedentlypreviously free from them.
The affectsimpacts of climate changeglobal warming will altervary by nationcountry and arearegion. In some higher latitudes, farmingagricultural productivenessproductivity could actually increase while farmers in many subtropical and tropical areasregions could go throughexperience substantialsignificant declines in their yields. Small island states and countriesnations close to low-lyingsea level -- such aslike Bangladesh, with extensive sea-levellow-lying coastal areas -- are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise. Many high-mountain areasregions could go throughexperience importantsignificant changes in ecosystems and water resources.
27
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Human Emissions and their Contribution

In the circumstancecontext of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are actshuman activities which affect the climate. The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part causedinduced by human activities," and it "is largely irreversible." Scientific researchScience has made tremendousenormous encroachmentsinroads in understanding climate changeglobal climate change and its causes, and is beginning to help develop a strong agreementunderstanding of current present and possiblepotential pretendsimpacts that will affect people today and in coming decades. This apprehensionunderstanding is crucial because it allows decision makers to place climate changeglobal climate change in the circumstancecontext of other large challengesopportunities facing the countrynation and the world. There are still some uncertainties, and there always will be in understanding a complex system likesuch as Earths climate. Nevertheless, there is a strong, credible body of demonstrateevidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these modificationschanges are in large part causedinduced by human actionhuman activities. WhenWhile much remains to be learned, the core developmentphenomenon, technologicalscientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific considerdebate and deliberatecareful ratingevaluation of optionalternative explanations. United States National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change
28
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
SOURCE: HTTP://ENVFOR.NIC.IN/CC/WHAT/CLIMATESYS.HTM
Of almostmost concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in Carbon dioxideCO2 levels due tobecause of dischargesemissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmospheresurrounding) and cement manufacture. Some other human actionshuman activities are:
landuse change
29
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
energy yieldproduction from fossil fuels transportation transportation industrial actionsactivities (production and use of CFCs and Halons) transportation structureconstructional activities (bricks, cement, steel, etc.) landuse change Ultraviolet Radiation
Recent laboratory research and reinterpretation of field measurements over Antarctica have strengthened the evidence that the Antarctic ozone hole is primarily because of chlorine/brominecontaining chemicals. In addition, the weight of evidence suggests that the observed middle and high latitude ozone losses are also largely because of chlorine and bromine containing chemicals (CFCs and halons). The sun lets outemits radioactivityradiation over a broad arrayrange of wavelengths, to which the human beinghuman eye reactsresponds in the arearegion from close toapproximately 400-700 nanometernm. Wavelengths from 320-400 nanometernm are known called as Ultra Violet-A; wavelengths from 280-320 nanometernm are known called as Ultra Violet-B; and wavelengths from 200280 nanometernm are known called as UltraViolet-C. Ozone in the atmosphere absorbs and is expected to continue to foreseeable circumstances. On the is not absorbed at all by ozone. absorbed by ozone. virtually all UV-C do so under all other hand, UV-A UV-B is partially
187
30
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
The solar UV-B radiation has great natural variability and has been measured in a number of ways by ground-based techniques and more recently by instruments with high wavelengths resolution, providing spectral data. UV-B radiation has also been derived for a particular geographical location from ozone measurements in the absence of direct UV-B measurements. A large increase in surface ultraviolet radiation has been observed in Antarctica throughout during the periods of low ozone. Below Under clear sky atmospheric condition conditions , these increases are consistentIncreases are consistent with theoretical predictions. FurthermoreMoreover, an erythemal radiative amplification elementfactor of 1.25 +0.20 has been deduced from simultaneous measurements of column ozone and surface ultraviolet radioactivityradiative at a clear air site, which is agreedin agreement with a model, computedcalculated economic valuevalue of 1.1.
Ozone in the atmosphere absorbs virtually all UV-C and is expected to continue to do so under all foreseeable circumstances. On the other hand, Ultra Violet-A is not absorbed at all by ozone. Ultra VioletB is partially absorbed by ozone. Recent laboratory research and reinterpretation of field measurements over Antarctica have strengthened the evidence that the Antarctic ozone hole is primarily due to chlorine/bromine-containing chemicals. In addition, the weight of evidence suggests that the observed middle and high latitude ozone losses are also largely due to chlorine and bromine containing chemicals (CFCs and halons).The solar Ultra Violet-B radiation has great natural variability and has been evaluated in a number of
31
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
ways by ground-based techniques and more recently by instruments with high distances resolution, providing spectral data. Ultra Violet-B radiation has also been derived for a particular geographical location from ozone measurements in the absence of direct Ultra Violet-B measurements.
Global warming and climate changeglobal climate change are also projected to have many adversemany negative impacts on:
glaciers and freshwater systems fisheries polar ice-cap glaciers and freshwater systems human health desertification sea level rise agriculture sea level rise hydrology and rainfall distribution fisheries human health
Ozone Layer
Life on Earth is possible because ofDue to the composition of our atmospheresurrounding. This atmosphere has developedevolved over geological time into a mixture to approximately 78.08% percent Nitrogen, 20.94% percent oxygen, 0.94% percent argon and 0.035% percent CO2carbon dioxide. It also contains many other trace gases at concentrations ranging from parts per million to parts per trillion (1012). The biochemical, geochemical, andas well as geophysical importancesignificance of these trace gases is much
186
32
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
greater than their relativelycomparatively low concentrations would suggest. This is particularly true of ozone and a number of trace gases (also knownidentified as source gases) which control the abundanceplenty of ozone and are responsible for greenhouse warming and predicted climate changeglobal climate change.
Source Gases
Source gases are specifieddefined as those gases which influencecontrol phaseslevels of stratospheric ozone (O3) by channelizingtransporting species comprisingcontaining hydrogen, halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen to the stratosphere that are significantimportant in stratospheric ozoneO3 destruction. Examples Instances are the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide oxide(N2O). Other source gases that also fallcome under consideration in an atmospheric stratospheric ozoneO3 concentration are those that are involved in stratospheric ozoneO3 and hydroxyl (OH) radical chemistry of the troposphere. They are carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) in addition to methane. Atmospheric ozone actsplays as ana significantimportant duel characterrole in impactingaffecting climate. The stratospheric ozone layer surrounds the Earth likesuch as a shield and protects it from biologically-harmful ultraviolet UV radiation, stillyet lets through visible radiationvisible light to affirmsupport the various life forms on Earth. O3 is also of elementaryprimary importance insignificant in determining the thermal structure in the stratosphere. Most of the source gases, along with Carbon dioxideCO2 and water vapour, (H2O), are climatically substantialsignificant and thus affect stratospheric O3 levels by their influence on stratospheric temperatures. Ozone is an important absorber of infrared emissioninfrared radiation and is thus a greenhouse gas. Ozone is tooalso poisonoustoxic, and when formed near the Earths surface, affectsgives impact on human health, quality of air, vegetation, and food production.
33
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion If stratospheric ozone compactnessconcentration reduceddecreased by as little as one 1 per %cent, the biologically active Ultra Violet UV-B radiation can be expected to increase by two2 per cent%. The direct impressionseffects of such a reduction in ozone concentration on mankindhuman beings would be a noticedmarked increase in the incidence of skin cancer, in particular amongst the white population. In add-onaddition, global incidence of severe eye diseases (e.g.for example cataracts) can be expected to go up. FurthermoreMoreover, there is technologicalscientific evidence proposingsuggesting that Ultra Violet UV-B radiationemission also affectsgives impact on the humanhuman being immune system and its defense powers. HoweverAlthough, leading scientists feel that risks involved for plants and micro-organisms are much more serious than the direct effects on human health. The yields of many agricultural farming plants are adversenegatively affected by Ultra Violet UV-B. A yield reduction causedinduced by increased Ultra Violet UV-B might have serious consequencespenalty for the world food supply.
Student Activity Summary

Climate changeGlobal climate change is a global challengeconfronts requiring internationalworldwide collaborativemutual action. Another area in which countriesnations have successfully committed to a long-term multilateralmany-sided resolutiondeclaration is the liberalization of international trade. IntegrationIncorporation into the world economyfinancial system has provedproves to be a powerfulinfluential meansresources for countriesnations to promote economic growth, development, and poverty
34
Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________
reduction. Some developing countriesnations have opened their own economies to take full advantagegain of the opportunities for economic development through tradedeal, but many have not. The ongoingenduring Doha Development Round is seen by many as a potential vehiclemedium for real gains for all economies, and particularlymainly developing economies, in the areas of agricultural reform, improvedenhanced market accessentrance for goods and services, and clarificationexplanation and improvementprogress of trade disciplines. The broadwide objectives of the betterment of currentpresent and futureprospect human welfaresafety are thustherefore shared by both global trade and climate regimes. YetUp till now both climate and trade agendas have evolved largely independently through the years, despite their mutuallycommonly supporting objectives and the potential for synergies discussed in this study. WhileThough the implementexecuation of the Kyoto Protocol may have brought to light some inherentintrinsic conflicts between economic growthdevelopment and environmentalecological protection, the objectives of Kyoto also providemake available an opportunity for aligning developmentexpansion and energy policies in such a waytechnique that they could stimulate production, trade, and investment in cleaner technologyexpertise options. SinceWhile global emission goals and globalworldwide trade are policy objectives shared by most countriesnations and nearlyalmost all of the World Banks clientscustomers, it makes senselogic to considerthink about the two sets of objectives together.
Keywords Review Questions Further Readings

Kiehl, J.T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (1997). "Earth's annual global mean energy budget"(PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197208.
35
Notes
Web Readings
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPUB/38760781192582946896/21513448/ITCC_Booklet_rev2.pdf http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/ science/projections-of-climate-change.html http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publi cations_htmlpdf/application/txt/pub_07_impacts.pdf
___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________

Unit 6: Climate Change and Damage: Problem

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Unit 6: Climate Change and Damage: Problem

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

UNIT 1 Introduction to Port and Shipping