Professional Documents
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CIMB TRADERAM
Retail Research
Contact: Jonathan Ng – +65 6210-8650 – jonathan.ng@cimb.com 19 February 2009
Fundamentally…
Selected Statistics
• Asia-Pacific Strategic Investments (APSI SP; S$0.145 - SELL) – APSI reflected a net loss of
Indices Level % chg Ytd % chg
S$1.8m for 2QFY09 as demand for pre-need burial niches continue to falter. Maintain our Sell Straits Times Index 1,651.06 +0.8% -6%
FSTC ST China Index 170.77 +0.9% -8%
recommendation but cut target price to S$0.11 (from S$0.14) based on 2x P/BV. Dow Jones 7,555.63 +0.0% -14%
• China Essence Group (CESS SP; S$0.215 – BUY) – A muted 3Q with unit sales being offset S&P 500 Index
CSI 300 Index
788.42
2,275.84
-0.1%
-4.6%
-13%
+25%
by ASP decline and margin erosion on higher raw material price. Reducing forecasts to factor in Hang Seng Index
Crude Oil (US$/barrel)
13,016.00
34.70
+0.5%
+0.2%
-10%
-22%
higher potato cost and lower margin. TP raised to S$0.34 as peer CY09 P/BV has moved up to Gold Spot (US$/oz) 981.33 -0.4% +11%
0.5x from 0.4x previously. Top volume Last price % chg Vol (m)
GOLDEN AGRI-RESO SGD 0.29 +3.6% 60.5
Technically… CHINA HONGXING SGD 0.16 -3.0% 44.5
NOBLE GROUP LTD SGD 1.11 +2.8% 30.4
• Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP; S$4.89 – SELL) – Breaking below the S$4.80 STRAITS ASIA RES
UNITED FIBER SYS
SGD 0.82
SGD 0.03
+2.5%
+0.0%
26.5
25.5
support level is bearing over the immediate term. CAPITALAND LTD SGD 2.68 +22.1% 23.1
• Meiban Group (MEI SP; S$0.145 – BUY) – The breakout could lift the stock towards the Top gainers Last price % chg Vol (m)
EASTGATE TECH SGD 0.02 +50.0% 0.2
S$0.165-S$0.17 resistance next. JADE TECH HLDG SGD 0.02 +50.0% 3.9
• Venture Corp (VMS SP; S$4.00 – SELL) – A breakdown below S$4.00 would likely see the CHINA YONGSHENG
GLOBAL VOICE GRO
SGD 0.02
SGD 0.02
+50.0%
+33.3%
0.1
10.4
continuation of a longer term downtrend towards the S$3.60-3.65 levels next. DYNAMIC COLOURS
ABTERRA LTD
SGD 0.09
SGD 0.03
+28.6%
+25.0%
0.0
11.4
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
SINGAPORE
Trend Spotter
Retail Research
Contact: Kong Seh Siang: +603-2084-9289 - sehsiang.kong@cimb.com 19 February 2009
• If it breaks below the S$4.80 support level, sentiment may turn bearish over
the immediate term. Next support is much weaker at S$4.65, S$4.41 and
S$3.90.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD has confirmed its
dead cross and stayed negative while RSI is still flat.
• Sell now ahead of the breakdown. Resistance is seen at S$5.15 and S$5.48
levels. Unless it can cut above these resistances to reverse the short-term
bearish trend, any intermittent rebound may not be sustainable.
• The stock broke out of its consolidation triangle after taking out its resistance at
S$0.14.
• Both indicators are still showing positive signs.
• Aggressive investors could buy on weakness but put a stop below the S$0.12
level. The breakout could lift the stock towards the S$0.165-S$0.17 resistance
next. Other investors should just stand aside for now.
• The stock has broken out above its medium term trend line resistance.
However, it is currently trading below the 30-day SMA at S$4.16. The next
resistance is at S$4.70.
• MACD is still marginally positive but RSI has hooked downwards. Mixed
indicators suggest that it is still in consolidation.
• After failing to close above its 30-day SMA after trying 3 times, suggest that the
buying momentum is weak. There should have been a rally after the breakout
of its medium term trend line but it appears that there is none forthcoming. A
breakdown below S$4.00 would likely see the continuation of a longer term
downtrend towards the S$3.60-S$3.65 levels next.
What we like
• Products have an indefinite shelf life. Due to the nature of APSI’s
products (burial and columbaria niches), there is no risk of
obsolescence and can be sold for a stable price indefinitely.
What we dislike
• Low traction. The stock has been faced with a lack of trading interest
which hinders any potential share price movement.
• Control of operating expenses remains a worry. Higher general
Source: Bloomberg
and administrative expenses caused the Group to dive under. These
expenses were primarily attributed to the expansion of distribution • Technical SELL
channels in anticipation of increased retail sales. Staff and salary • Stock has been trading in a sideways trading band of S$0.18-0.26
benefits were also relatively high at RM2.1m as APSI seeks to since Aug-07 with occasional false breakouts. However, the stock
continually improve its management team. fell below the range recently and has yet to climb back. So, this
breakdown is bearish.
Outlook looks bleak • Next downside target is S$0.12 and S$0.10.
• Earnings prospects likely to remain difficult. The ailing economy • Technical indicators continue to portray weakness. Daily MACD is
and political unrest in Malaysia have had an adverse impact on all bearish while RSI is turning down.
sectors in the country. Management expects to face trying conditions • Continue to sell as the immediate term trend is down. Resistance is
as demand for its pre-need segment (primary revenue generator) at S$0.18 and S$0.22.
dwindles along with domestic consumer spending.
A muted third quarter • Note that in line with our earlier reluctance to factor in potato protein
and potato fibre sales, we continue to assume zero contribution to be
Results summary conservative. We factor in capex associated with these new segments
FYE Mar (RMB) 3QFY09 3QFY08 yoy % qoq % 9MFY09 9MFY08 yoy % 2QFY09
chg chg chg though as the Company is going ahead with the building of these
Revenue 352.6 330.3 6.8 62.9 712.3 588.8 21.0 216.5 plants.
Gross profit 143.9 148.2 (2.9) 62.9 295.3 268.3 10.1 88.3
Pre tax profit 98.4 107.7 (8.7) 77.7 198.2 199.2 (0.5) 55.4 • There is some risk that China Essence could face challenges in selling
Net profit 81.2 100.8 (19.5) 81.2 161.3 174.7 (7.7) 44.8 the potato protein as this is a substitute product and users may need
Gross profit margin* 40.8 44.9 (4.1) (0.0) 40.8 stronger persuasion to switch from the traditional products’ whose
Pre tax profit margin* 27.9 32.6 (4.7) 2.3 25.6 prices are not at risk of rising for the moment.
Net profit margin* 23.0 30.5 (7.5) 2.3 20.7
• Maintain BUY with S$0.34 target price, pegged to the sector average
EPS (RMB)** 0.2 0.3 (19.5) 81.6 0.4 0.5 (8.7) 0.1 P/BV of 0.5x. The sector was previously trading at 0.4x P/BV.
NAV (RMB)** 2.6 2.3 15.9
* margin changes in percentage points
** as reported by Company
Forecast & valuation
FYE Mar 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
Results highlights Revenue (RMB m) 521.2 858.8 968.3 1,000.8 1,259.1
• 9M results were 71.4% of consensus and 69.8% of our full year EBITDA (RMB m)
EBITDA margins (%)
215.9
41.4
334.1
38.9
385.2
39.8
422.1
42.2
513.7
40.8
forecast. Pretax profit (RMB m) 194.6 278.5 244.4 254.8 319.4
• 3Q sales grew just 7% yoy as the key potato starch segment saw its Net profit (RMB m)
EPS (RMB cts)
147.1
38.3
238.0
61.2
197.5
50.4
201.3
51.3
252.3
64.3
16.4% yoy volume growth being offset by a 7.4% yoy ASP decrease. EPS growth (%) +9% +60% -18% +2% +25%
• Overall gross margin fell by 4.1 percentage points as gross profit P/E (x)
FD EPS (RMB cts)
2.5
38.3
1.6
51.9
1.9
43.0
1.9
43.9
1.5
55.0
margins fell across all product segments on higher potato prices (70% FD P/E (x) 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.7
Gross DPS (RMB cts) 2.4 6.3 5.0 5.1 6.4
of cost of goods sold). Dividend yield (%) 2.5 6.6 5.2 5.3 6.7
• On a positive note, operating expenses fell but higher interest expense P/NTA (x) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
ROE (%) 24.2 31.9 20.3 17.5 18.6
due to more borrowings to fund capex and non-cash amortization of Net gearing (%) cash cash 25.3 21.4 13.3
interest expense on its convertible bond and the expiry of tax benefits Net cash per share (RMB cts) 64.15 41.12 net debt net debt net debt
P/CF (x) 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9
led to a 19% yoy decline in net profit. EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3
CIMB-GK/Consensus (x) - - 1.31 1.37 1.04
Cautious outlook
• China Essence does not appear to be immune from the effects of the
Peer valuation
global economic slowdown. The Company is reducing its ASP by
RMB500 per tonne in January as its customers are reducing their
prices to sustain demand. Peer valuation
• Construction of its new potato starch plants have progressed Mkt Cap CY09
satisfactorily. The Company commented that large-scale production of Company (S$ mil) P/BV (x) Div Yield (%)
potato protein has commenced in late September 2008 but it appears Celestial Nutrifoods 159.1 0.45 6.3
that no sales have been recorded as yet. The potato fibre plant is likely Pine Agritech 285.0 0.61 3.3
to commence production in May 09.
Simple average 0.53 4.8
• No interim dividend was declared.
Source: Bloomberg, CIMB-GK Research
50.0
45.0
(%)
40.0
35.0
• Broke below its medium term downtrend resistance but have yet to
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
rally. Support is now at S$0.20. MACD and RSI are negative.
• Break below S$0.20 could send the stock lower towards S$0.175 and
• We have adjusted our forecasts to factor in higher potato prices and possibly S$0.155.
ASP erosion. However, our target price is not much affected since we • Resistance is seen at S$0.235-0.25.
are valuing the Company on a P/BV basis.
SINGAPORE
Updated 14/02/09
Shareholding
Transacted Substantial Buy/Sell/ No of Shs Price Per % Before % After
Stock
Date Shareholder/Director Conv ('000) Share $ Change Change
Buy
Enzer Corp 05-Feb-09 Lim Keng Hock Jonathan Buy 100 0.12 16.72 16.8
Enzer Corp 06-Feb-09 Tan Lee Peng Buy 124 n.a 6.03 6.13
LMA Intl NV 11-Feb-09 John Lim Kok Min Buy 200 0.12 0.27 0.3
ASA Grp Hldgs 10-Feb-09 Poh Choo Bin Buy 324 n.a 4.87 5.02
Food Empire Hldgs 02-Feb-09 FMR LLC * Buy 543 n.a 5.95 6.05
Swing Media Tech 09-Feb-09 Hui Yan Moon Buy 645 0.05 0 0.07
Swing Media Tech 06-Feb-09 Ip Ming Yan * Buy 645 n.a 54.83 54.9
Hiap Moh Corp 11-Feb-09 Michael Wee Soon Lock * Buy 777 0.4 92.7 93.94
Hiap Moh Corp 11-Feb-09 Ng Kah Lin * Buy 777 n.a 92.7 93.94
Hiap Moh Corp 11-Feb-09 Greenseed Pte Ltd * Buy 778 n.a 3.67 4.91
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Ng Kian Aik Paul Buy 1000 n.a 0 0.21
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Ng Kian Aik Paul Buy 1000 n.a 0 0.21
Saizen Reit 02-Feb-09 UBS AG * Buy 1045 n.a 5.79 6.02
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Michael Wee Soon Lock * Buy 1543 0.4 90.26 92.7
Ezion Hldgs 09-Feb-09 Larry Glenn Johnson * Buy 6000 n.a 0 0.93
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Asiawide Hldgs * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Barrington Heights Ltd * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Cumulus Enterprises Ltd * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Independent Alliance Ventures * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Lucas Sasmito * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 SP Chemicals Hldgs Ltd Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Hendrik Sasmito * Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 SP Chemicals Hldgs Ltd Buy 8670 n.a 94.61 96.19
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Independent Alliance Ventures * Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Lucas Sasmito * Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 SP Chemicals Hldgs Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Hendrik Sasmito * Buy 11405 0.73 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Asiawide Hldgs * Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Barrington Heights Ltd * Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
SP Chemicals 06-Feb-09 Cumulus Enterprises Ltd * Buy 11405 n.a 96.19 98.27
Advance SCT 10-Feb-09 Kang Hui Huat Buy 20000 0.07 0 6.35
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Annie Lin * Buy 39000 n.a 1.74 9.96
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Atlas Realty Pte Ltd Buy 40000 n.a 0 8.22
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Atlas Realty Pte Ltd Buy 40000 n.a 0 8.22
Auston Intl Grp 04-Feb-09 Annie Lin * Buy 40000 n.a 1.74 9.96
Hiap Moh Corp 05-Feb-09 Ng Kah Lin * Buy 47557 n.a 13.09 88.57
Hiap Moh Corp 05-Feb-09 Michael Wee Soon Lock * Buy 47557 0.4 14.77 90.26
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Greenseed Pte Ltd Buy 56090 n.a 0 89.03
Hiap Moh Corp 05-Feb-09 Greenseed * Buy 56861 0.4 0 90.26
SP Chemicals 04-Feb-09 Hendrik Sasmito * Buy 308670 n.a 94.61 96.19
Sell
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Charles Yeo Sell 150 0.4 0.24 0
Fortune Reit 10-Feb-09 Lim Hwee Chiang * Sell 195 2.15 1.57 1.55
Mirach Energy Ltd 11-Feb-09 FMR LLC * Sell 240 n.a 9.06 8.97
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Stephen Ng Kah Seen Sell 303 0.4 0.48 0
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 David Ng Kah Seat Sell 303 0.4 0.48 0
Rickmers Maritime 09-Feb-09 FMR LLC * Sell 374 n.a 10.03 9.94
Source: The Business Times
ST: Shares transfer, IP: Investment purposes, PL: Placement
SINGAPORE
Updated 14/02/09
Shareholding
Transacted Substantial Buy/Sell/ No of Shs Price Per % Before % After
Stock
Date Shareholder/Director Conv ('000) Share $ Change Change
Spore Petroleum 03-Feb-09 Koh Ban Heng * Sell 375 n.a 0.17 0.1
Fortune Reit 05-Feb-09 Lim Hwee Chiang * Sell 445 2.15 1.62 1.57
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Ng Yek-Soon Joshua Sell 604 n.a 0.96 0
Time Watch Invest 06-Feb-09 UOBAM * Sell 754 n.a 7.15 6.95
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Ng Kah Lin Sell 1060 n.a 1.68 0
Enzer Corp 05-Feb-09 Tan Lee Peng Sell 1180 n.a 7.02 6.03
Keppel Land 02-Feb-09 Schroder Invest Mgt Grp * Sell 2000 n.a 5.12 4.84
ARA Asset Mgt 06-Feb-09 Prudential Asset Mgt (S'pore) * Sell 2107 n.a 11.09 10.73
Fortune Reit 03-Feb-09 Lim Hwee Chiang * Sell 2435 n.a 1.92 1.62
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Ng Kah Lin * Sell 8243 n.a 13.09 0
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Sie Kam Shuat * Sell 8243 n.a 13.09 0
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Joshua Ng Hock Hwa * Sell 8243 n.a 13.09 0
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Gracefield Invest Pte Ltd Sell 8243 n.a 13.09 0
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Michael Wee Soon Lock * Sell 9304 0.4 14.77 0
Jackspeed Corp 11-Feb-09 Ang Kian Lee Sell 9380 0.09 4.48 0
Olam Intl 09-Feb-09 JPMorgan Chase & Co * Sell 14399 n.a 6.75 5.91
Advance SCT 10-Feb-09 Terence Tea Yeok Kian Sell 20000 0.07 11.79 5.45
Hiap Moh Corp 09-Feb-09 Hiap Moh Hldgs Sell 32130 n.a 51 0
Others
China Hongxing 06-Feb-09 Wasatch Advisors Inc * IP 5664 n.a 6.79 7
Soup Res Grp 02-Feb-09 Then Khek Koon SA 11172 0.01 5.61 5.61
Soup Res Grp 02-Feb-09 Then Khek Koon SA 11458 0.01 5.61 5.61
Soup Res Grp 02-Feb-09 Pang Cheng Jin SA 21721 n.a 10.92 10.92
Soup Res Grp 02-Feb-09 Wong Chi Keong SA 26061 n.a 13.1 13.1
February 2009
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Results: Results:
4Q08 - Tuan Sing 3Q09 – CSC
3Q09 – SATS
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jan 09 Intl Reserves Results: Results: Results: Dec 08 Retail Sales &
Results: 4Q08 - NOL, StarHub, 2Q09 – Tiong Woon, 4Q08 – Comfort Catering Trade Indices
4Q08 Rickmers Capland Ellipsiz, ASL Marine 3Q09 – Yellow Pages Results:
3Q09 Macarthurcook REIT 3Q09 - SIA 2Q09 – Eu Yan Sang 4Q08 – ChSports, DBS
1Q09 - WBL 3Q09 - FJ Ben, Tat Hong
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Results Jan 09 Merc Trade 4Q08 Ctrl Govt Debt Results 4Q08 Wholesale Trade
4Q08 – Map Tech, OKP Results 4Q08 – Venture, ARA Results
4Q08 – Meiban, OCBC 4Q08 – MCL Land
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Jan 09 CPI Results: Results: Jan 09 IIP 4Q08 GDP *
4Q08 – Rotary, Straits 4Q08 – Aztech, CAO. CSE Results: 4Q08 BOP *
Trading, Sembcorp Marine, 4Q08 Armstrong, HTL, 4Q08 Ave Mthly Earnings*
Del Monte Petra, Hiap Hoe, LKT, 4Q08 Biz Receipts
Eastern Asia Tech, Jan 09 Ctrl Govt Ops
Sembcorp Ind Jan 09 Pdr&Intl Trade Px
Results:
4Q08 - Broadway,
Indofood, Yongnam
March 2009
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
2 3 4 5 6 7
Results: Results:
4Q08 - Mandarin Oriental 4Q08 - Jardine
Matheson, Jardine
Strategic
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Feb 09 Intl Reserves* Feb 09 RSCTI
1Q09 results – China Flex
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Feb 09 Merchandise Trade
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Feb 09 CPI Feb 09 IIP
29 30 31
Feb 09 PITPI Feb 09 Cent Gov Debt
Feb 09 CPI *
Feb 09 External Debt *
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