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Chapter 10
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for example, if we estimate wrongly the covariance matrix (mutually inconsistent correlation coefficients), it is possible that the variance of the portfolio we construct is negative! _ hence, the need for a simpler model, that doesnt rely on calculations that many calculations
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10-4
unanticipated effect of the common set of macroeconomic factors by F _ then mi = i F and the equation for the return on stock k becomes the single-factor model: ri = E(ri) + i F + ei
10-6
portfolio, its return should respond only to the common macroeconomic factors _ hence, we can use a market index (say, S&P 500) to approximate our macroeconomic variable _ the single-index model _ investors are more interested in risk premiums rather that returns
10-7
+ i [rm rf] + ei or: Ri = i + i Rm + ei where Ri, Rm are excess returns _ we can decompose the excess return on a security into three components:
_
i
= return if the excess return on the market portfolio is zero
_
i
[rm rf] = return due to market movements _ ei = return due to unexpected firmspecific factors
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Why Beta?
covariance between returns on stock k and market portfolio (index): _ hence,
_
2
= ++ = ++ = ++ = = = =
2
),(
m mi i
r r Cov
10-9
m
2
_
2
firm-specific risk: ei
+ = + + = ),( ),(),(
mji jmjjimii jiji
++ + + = =
10-10
n = 50 estimates of expected returns _ n = 50 estimates of sensitivity coefficients ( i ) _ 1 (one) estimate of the variance of the market portfolio (index) _ n = 50 estimates of firm-specific risks (
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ei
2)
easier to generate the Markovitz frontier _ allows the specialization of security analysts by industry
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_ Disadvantages:
vs. micro (ignores, for example, industry specific events) _ resulting portfolios might be inefficient
10-12
, with eit being the deviations from the line for the individual returns _ this line is called the Security Characteristic Line (SCL) _ it can be estimated using standard estimation techniques
10-13
gather historical data on stock prices (usually closing price), market index and risk-free asset
(T-bills) _ construct one-period returns (for a onemonth or one-week holding periods) for the stock, the market index and the risk-free asset _ this yields the variance of the return on the market index _ construct excess returns for the stock and the market index _ estimate the index model equation and obtain estimates of i , i , and ei
2
10-14
10-15
Portfolio Risk
the single index model equation for a portfolio has the same form: Rp = p + p Rm + ep where p, p, and ep are weighted returns of the individual stock counterparts _ the variance of the firm-specific term ep
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decreases as the number of stocks included in the portfolio increases _ this is another example of the effects of diversification on risk
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p
2
2 2
p m
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the market portfolio is efficient _ relationship between risk and expected returns
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in practice, the CAPM is not directly testable, because it makes prediction about ex ante returns, while we only observe ex post returns
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10-18
hence, we should find that our estimates of s are centered around zero (Jensen, 1968)
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10-19
Estimated Alphas
10-20
Security Risk Evaluation book (beta book) _ differences from index model:
uses returns rather than excess returns _ ignores dividends
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10-21
Adjusted Beta
estimated beta coefficients tend to move toward one over time _ reasons:
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average beta for all stocks is 1 (market beta) _ firms become more diversified over time _ they eliminate more of firm-specific risk
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Merrill Lynch calculates an adjusted beta to compensate for this tendency: where a and e are adjusted and estimated betas, respectively 3 1 3 2 + = ea
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10-22
Tracking Portfolios
suppose an investor identifies an underpriced
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portfolio P ( p > 0) and wants to invest in it _ still, if the market as a whole declines, she would still end up losing money _ to avoid that, she can construct a tracking portfolio T, with the following structure:
a proportion p in the market index _ a proportion (1 p) in the risk-free asset
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since T is constructed from the market index and the risk-free asset, its alpha coefficient is zero
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10-23