BAY of Bengal Cyclones

National Conference Ministry of Earth Sciences on Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiments (BOBTEX-2011) (BOBTEX
New Delhi 1-2 November 2011 1
Extended Abstracts Abstract
Cyclone Warning Division
India Meteorological Department

Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road New Delhi-110003 (India) Delhi
National Conference on Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiments (BOBTEX-2011)

New Delhi 1-2 November 2011
Extended Abstracts
Cyclone Warning Division
India Meteorological Department

Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road New Delhi-110003
Forward During the past few years, huge technological advancements have been achieved elsewhere in the world to observe the inner core of the cyclone through aircraft probing. Accordingly, Ministry of Earth Sciences conceived a programme in 2008 for aircraft probing of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal which resulted in the commencement of Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) in 2008 with Multi-institutional mechanism and IMD as nodal agency. FDP programme is aimed to demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of cyclones over the north Indian Ocean with enhanced observations over the data sparse region and to incorporate modifications into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal. The lessons learnt during the pre-pilot and pilot phases of FDP campaign helped in improved monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances during 2008-2010. During the Final Phase of the FDP programme (15 Oct.-30 Nov., 2012) India is planning to take up aircraft probing of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal with hiring of aircraft and drop sonde experiments. Considering all these, a two days National Conference on Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiments (BOBTEX2011) is organised in New Delhi during 01-02 November 2011. There are valuable research papers dealing with various aspects of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, especially in relation to FDP from leading experts of both research and operational meteorological environments. It is intended that the conference will be a first step towards an ongoing focus on impact of surface-upper air and space based observations in operational cyclone forecasting and NWP modelling in the north Indian Ocean. I am glad to inform that a volume of Extended Abstract of the research papers of the national conference, BOBTEX-2011 is brought out which will be very helpful as guidance material for further research on cyclone and planning of future FDP campaigns. I thank Cyclone Warning Division of IMD, New Delhi, for organising BOBTEX-2011. My special thanks are due to Dr. M Mohapatra and Dr Naresh Kumar for bringing out this Extended Abstract of the Proceedings of the conference. I also thank Prof. T.N. Krishnamurti for agreeing to deliver the keynote address; Prof. S.K. Dube, Prof. U. C. Mohanty, Mr R.C. Bhatia and Mr. S. Raghavan for agreeing to deliver the lead talks; Prof. J. Shukla for agreeing to chair the Panel discussion and concluding session of the conference and Mr D.R. Sikka for reviewing the extended abstracts of the proceedings. IMD, New Delhi 01. November 2011 Ajit Tyagi Director General of Meteorology
Contents Page
Synoptic and Climatological Aspects 1. Outcome and challenges of the Forecast Demonstration Project on Landfalling Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Ajit Tyagi, M. Mohapatra, D.R. Sikka* and B. K. Bandyopadhyay 2. Utility of Tropical Cyclone Module for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean. M Mohapatra, Naresh Kumar and B. K. Bandyopadhyay 3. Climatology and intensification of Bay of Bengal Cyclonic storms K.Seetharam 4. Study of wind shear, squall lines and cloud top temperatures in association with Tropical cyclone Charan Singh 5. Performance of modified CLIPER model for tropical cyclone track prediction over the north Indian Ocean R. P. Sharma, M. Mohapatra and B. K. Bandyopadhyay 6. Possible causes for absence of cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal during October-November 2009 S. Adhikary and M. Mohapatra 7. WARD Cyclone A Case Study S.R. Ramanan, K.V. Balasubramanian and M.Veerakumar 8. Upper Ocean Observations during the passage of cyclone JAL-2010 Anitha Gera, M Ravichandran and A. K. Mitra 9. Salient features of JAL Cyclone of November 2010 A case Study D. C. Gupta 10. Characteristics of VLF atmospherics during tropical cyclone AILA and several other thunderstorms over North-East India Rakesh Roy, Abhijit Choudhury, Anirban Guha and Barin Kumar De 11. The Role of India Meteorological Department Telecommunication Infrastructure on Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) program of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Sankar Nath 12. Evaluation of Cone of Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast over north Indian Ocean Issued by India Meteorological Department D. P. Nayak and M. Mohapatra Satellite and Radar Applications in Cyclone Monitoring 13. Observational aspects including DWR for cyclone monitoring S. Raghavan 1
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14. Observations of Cyclones from Space-Based Platforms: Current Status and future Prospects R.C. Bhatia 15. Early Detection of Global Tropical Cyclogenesis using OSCAT Data C. M. Kishtawal and Neeru Jaiswal 16. Objective Detection of Center of Tropical Cyclone in Remotely Sensed Infrared Images Neeru Jaiswal, C. M. Kishtawal, P. K. Pal 17. Analysis of tropical cyclones by using microwave imageries of other polar orbiting satellites over Indian region Suman Goyal and A. K. Sharma 18. Estimation of intensity of tropical cyclone over Bay of Bengal using Microwave imagery T. N .Jha, M Mohapatra and B .K .Bandyopadhyay 19. Making a complete picture radar composite B. Arul Malar Kannan, Suresh Chand and S.K. Kundu 20. Study of Tropical Cyclone AILA using Doppler Weather Radar data D. Pradhan Heavy Rainfall, Gale Wind and Storm Surge 21. Storm surge and coastal inundation S. K. Dube 22. Numerical modeling of Tide-Surge interaction in the Bay of Bengal Jismy Poulose 23. Outlook of tide and storm induced current off Gopalpur coast Susant Kumar Misra, P. Chandramohan, A. S. N Murty, J. K. Panigrahi, R. Mahadevan, M. M. Mahanty and J. K. Sahu 24. Estimation of pressure drop within the tropical cyclone and height of associated storm surge using Doppler velocity data D.Pradhan, Anasuya Mitra 25. Tropical Cyclones Wind Radii prediction over North Indian ocean M. Mohapatra and Monica Sharma 26. Drop size distribution Characteristics of cyclone and convective precipitation observed over Semi-arid-zone in India S.Balaji Kumar, S.B.Surendra Prasad, U.V. Murali Krishan and K.Krishna Reddy 27. Changes in extreme daily rainfall associated with cyclonic disturbances over Andaman & Nicobar Islands in a warming climate Naresh Kumar, M. Mohapatra, A. K. Jaswal and B. P. Yadav 28. Monitoring Formation and Movement of the Depression of
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16-23 June 2011 using DWR, Satellite Products and Synergy and Utility of Implimenting a Real time Nowcasting in IMD for filling the forecasting Gap Rajendra Kumar Jenamani 29. Forecasting of rainfall from landfalling cyclone using satellite derived rain rate data: A case Study for cyclone Aila Habibur Rahaman Biswas and P.K.Kundu 30. Unprecedented flood in river Mahanadi in Orissa in September, 2008 and its impact on economic development S.C.Sahu and S.K.Dastidar 31. Deep Depression without Heavy Rainfall Bikram Singh, R.C. Vashisth, B.P. Yadav and Charan Singh 32. Lessons from IRENE S. Raghavan NWP Applications in Cyclone Prediction 33. NWP models applications in Tropical Cyclone Predictions over the Bay of Bengal U. C. Mohanty*, Krishna K Osuri and S. Pattanayak 34. IMDs recent initiatives for improved Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast over Indian region using Hurricane WRF Model Y.V. Rama Rao, T.S.V. Vijay Kumar, Zhan Zhang, K. Naga Ratna, A.K. Das, D.R. Pattanaik, S.K. Roy Bhowmik and Ajit Tyagi 35. Impact of cyclone bogusing and regional assimilation on tropical cyclone track and intensity predictions Manjusha Chourasia, R. G. Ashrit, John P George 36. Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones in Bay of Bengal R. D. Kanase and P. S. Salvekar 37. Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and its application over the North Indian Sea S. D. Kotal and S. K. Bhattacharya 38. Track Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones using ARW model Krishna K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, A. Routray and M. Mohapatra 39. On the Implementation and the ability of the Ensemble Prediction System for tropical cyclone track and strike probability for North Indian Ocean K. Naga Ratna 40. Ocean atmospheric coupled model to estimate energy and path of cyclone near the coast Ramkrishna Datta 41. Track, intensity and few dynamical aspects of AILA as simulated by operational NWP model of the IAF
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Wg Cdr TP Srivastava and Wg Cdr Anil Devrani 42. Analysis of Barotrophic Energetics of Tropical Cyclone Khai-Muk S.Balachandran 43. Performance evaluation of spectrum of cyclones over North Indian Ocean using RAMS model Ancy Thomas, Basanta kumar Samala and Akshara Kaginalkar 44. An Observational and Modeling Study of the Tropical Cyclone PHET Jagabandhu Panda, R. K. Giri and Harvir Singh 45. Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and a Rapid Intensification (RI) Index S. D. Kotal and S. K. Roy Bhowmik 46. Development of the Lagrangian Advection model for prediction of tropical cyclone track over the Indian Ocean Sanjeev Kumar Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal, and P. K. Pal 47. Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Based on Coupled Model Outputs D. R. Pattanaik, M. Mohapatra, Y. V. Rama Rao and Ajit Tyagi 48. Impact of Resolution and Data Assimilation on the prediction of the cyclone JAL over Bay of Bengal using WRF (NMM) and grid point statistical interpolation scheme K. Naga Ratna 49. Study of JAL cyclone track using WRF cumulus parameter schemes M. Venkatrami Reddy, S. Balaji Kumar, S. B. Surendra Prasad and K. Krishna Reddy 50. Impact of data assimilation system for simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal with WRF-NMM modeling system Sujata Pattanayak and U C Mohanty 85
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Outcomes and Challenges of Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on Landfalling Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal Ajit Tyagi, M. Mohapatra, D.R. Sikka* and B. K. Bandyopadhyay India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 *40, Mausam Vihar, New Delhi-110051 1. Introduction During the past few years huge technological advancements have been achieved elsewhere in the world to observe the inner core of the cyclone. Accordingly a programme has been evolved for improvement in prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal resulting in planning of the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP). FDP programme is aimed to demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of cyclones over the north Indian ocean with enhanced observations over the data sparse region and to incorporate modification into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal based on the in-situ measurements and following the actual track through Satellite and Radar observations. FDP Programme is scheduled to be implemented in three phases, viz., (i) Pre- pilot phase (15 Oct30 Nov. 2008, 2009, (ii) Pilot phase (15 Oct-30 Nov. 2010 and 2011) and (iii) Final phase (15 Oct30 Nov. 2012). India is planning to take up aircraft probing of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 15 Oct.-30 Nov., 2012 with hiring of aircraft and dropsonde experiments. To accomplish the above objective, the initiative was carried out with following priorities. (i) Observational upgradation (ii) Modernisation of cyclone analysis and prediction system (iii) Cyclone analysis and forecasting procedure. (iv) Warning products generation, presentation & dissemination, (v) Confidence building measures and capacity building 2. Implementation of FDP during 2008-2010 Various strategies were adopted for improvement of observation, analysis and prediction of cyclone. Several national institutions participated for joint observational, communicational & NWP activities during the pre-pilot and pilot phases of FDP campaign during 2008-10. There were 23 days of intense observation period (IOP) in association with cyclonic disturbances (CDs) during 2008 and 2010. and no IOP during 2009, as there was no CD during FDP period over the Bay of Bengal. Enhanced observations during Intense IOP helped in improved monitoring and prediction of CDs. The additional data was collected from Sagar Kanya cruise, enhanced AWS network of the coast, high wind speed recorders (HWSRs), Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), five activated buoy observations from the Bay of Bengal, Oceansat-II observations and microwave imagery products. The comparison of observational systems before and after FDP indicates a significant improvement in terms of Radar, AWS, high wind speed recorders over the region (Table 1). It has resulted in reduction in landfall point location error from 55 km to 25 km (Mohapatra et al, 2011) Table 1. Observatory network by end of 2007 and 2010 Observational system Network by end of 2007 Network by end of 2010 Surface synoptic observatory network 559 559 Pilot balloon observatory network 62 62 Radiosonde/Radiowind network 35 39 Buoy network 6 12 AWS network 125 524 HWSR 12 DWR 5 12
Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 1
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To ensure the availability of the data and forecast products from various national and international sources at Cyclone Warning Division, IMD, New Delhi, an institutional mechanism was developed in consultation with all the stake holders. A standard operation procedure (SOP) has been prepared for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances and issue of warning. It includes the road map and check lists for this purpose. The tropical cyclone analysis, prediction and decision-making process was made by blending scientifically based conceptual models, dynamical & statistical models, meteorological datasets, technology and expertise. Conventional observational network, automatic weather stations (AWS), buoy & ship observations, cyclone detection radars and satellites were used for this purpose. A new weather analysis and forecasting system in a digital environment was used to plot and analyse different weather parameters, satellite, Radar and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model products. An integrated fully automated forecasting environment facility was thus set up for this purpose. The manual synoptic weather forecasting was replaced by hybrid systems in which synoptic method could be overlaid on NWP models supported by modern graphical and GIS applications to produce high quality analyses Ensemble of forecasts from NWP models at different scales - global, regional and mesoscale Prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone and storm surge Specialized warning information to various sectors including Govt. and non-Govt. agencies, The Tropical Cyclone Module installed in this forecasting system has the facilities to serve the above purpose. The automation of the process has increased the efficiency of system, visibility of IMD and utility of warning products. The products before and after initiative are shown in Fig.1. The improvement in monitoring and forecasting tools and techniques are shown in Table 2.
(i) Before initiative (Isobaric analysis at mean sea level) (ii) After initiative(Isobaric analysis at mean sea level during cyclone, Phet at 00 UTC of 03 June 2010)
Fig.1. Comparison of weather analysis products before and after the initiative 3. Outcome of FDP-2008-2010 Salient features of achievements are described below. (a). Cyclone track and intensity forecast : For comparison, the 24 hr track forecast errors and the skill scores during 2003 and 2010 are shown in Fig.2 (RSMC, New Delhi, 2009, 2010, 2011. The figures clearly indicate the gradual improvement in the cyclone forecast by IMD, as the error has decreased and the skill has increased. The average landfall error was less than the long period average error for the landfalling cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. It is also very much comparable to the forecast errors over other Ocean basins including north Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Considering, the intensity forecast, the average 24 hrs wind forecast error has been about 10 knots (Table 3) for these cyclones.
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Table 2. Comparative analysis of tools and techniques by the end of 2007 and 2010. Parameters Tools/technique by end of 2007 Additional tools/technique by end of 2010 Genesis Synoptic, satellite (visible & IR imagery), Microwave imagery, NWP analysis (T254), coarser resolution Oceansat-II ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, Quikscat, Ascat, AMV Location Ship, Buoy, limited AWS, Quikscat, Ascat, Enhanced AWS network, monitoring AMV GPSsonde, buoy, Oceansat-II Intensity Satellite (Visible and infrared imagery), Radar, Microwave imagery, monitoring Quikscat, Ascat, AMV enhanced DWR network, buoy network, Oceansat-II Genesis forecast Synoptic, satellite, radar Microwave imagery, Dynamical statistical model Track forecast Synoptic, satellite, radar, CLIPER, Limited High resolution ECMWF, NWP guidance (Coarser ECMWF, UKMET, IMD GFS(382),Experimental NCMRWF (T80), LAM, MM5, QLM), (T574), NCEP GFS, ARPS (Meteo-France), NCMRWF, MME, Experimental HWRF, WRF (ARW), WRF (NMM), modified CLIPER, ISRO GA technique Strike Strike probability based on probability EPS and super EPS Intensity Dynamical statistical model forecast Rapid Dynamical statistical model intensification Comparing the landfall forecast errors, the 24 hour mean error has been significantly less during last three years (2008-2010). It is about 100 km against the long period average error of about 150 Km(Fig. 3).
24 hr Track Forecast Error (km) 250 203 200 Error (km) 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 24 hr track Forecast Error (km) Year 2008 2009 2010 165 136 127 142 110 181 131
Linear (24 hr track Forecast Error (km)) 3 per. Mov. Avg. (24 hr track Forecast Error (km))
Fig.2 (a). 24 hr cyclone track forecast errors of IMD during 2003-2010.
Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
BOBTEX-2011
60 50 Skill Score (%) 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 24 hr Track Forecast Skill Score Linear (24 hr Track Forecast Skill Score) 3 per. Mov. Avg. (24 hr Track Forecast Skill Score) 6.3 29.5 18.6 13 21.9 13 24.1 24 hr Forecast Track Skill Score (% ) 53 y = 1.8357x + 14.164 R = 0.0983
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Fig.2.(b): 24 hr cyclone track forecast skill scores of IMD during 2003-2010.

24 hr Landfall forecast errors (km) during 2003-2010
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12 hr Landfall forecast errors (km) during 2003-2010
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Fig. 3. Landfall forecasterrors of IMD during 2003-2010 Table 3. Official average intensity forecast error of 2010 Intensity Error (knots) No. of Observation verified Average Absolute Average RMS 1.0 8.1 11.3 55 4.5 8.7 13.4 19.6 21.0 12.2 15.3 16.5 20.9 21.0 16.4 20.4 21.9 26.8 28.3 49 37 29 23 19
Lead Period (hrs) 12 24 36 48 60 72
The performance of NWP models have increased along with the introduction of NWP platforms like IMD GFS, WRF, HWRF and ensemble prediction system (EPS) The mean track forecast errors of NWP models during 2010 are given in Table 4. The performance of multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction is reasonably good. The 48 hours track forecast errors by MME technique of IMD is about 200 km.
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Table 4. Mean Track forecast errors of NWP models for cyclones during 2010
AVERAGE 12 hours 24 hours 36 hours 48 hours 60 hours 72 hours ECMWF 54 71 102 170 202 246 NCEP-GFS 158 178 177 236 253 334 JMA 195 96 176 203 232 268 IMD-MM5 118 141 241 350 363 356 IMD-QLM 103 144 167 181 256 311 IMD-MME 72 104 140 205 190 244 IMD-T382 94 124 164 212 246 290 IMD-WRF-VAR 155 137 236 253 234 265
(b) Cyclone Warning Services The format and content of bulletins have been changed significantly as shown in Table 5. These improvements have contributed to effective management of cyclone by disaster managers. The time of issue and frequency of bulletins have been standardized. The frequency of bulletin has also been increased along with the increase in number of users. The lead time of the forecast has been increased upto 72 hrs. The design of the bulletin has been revised with inclusion of prognostic and diagnostic features, observed and forecast track and intensity in Tabular form and storm surge guidance for all member countries of WMO/ESCAP Panel. The observed and forecast track and intensity of the cyclone were updated in cyclone page of IMD website time to time, based on the tropical cyclone advisory bulletin issued by Cyclone Warning Division of IMD, New Delhi. The cone of uncertainty in the forecast has been introduced with effect from the cyclone, WARD during December, 2009. It is helpful to the decision makers as it indicates the standard forecast errors in the forecast for different periods like 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hrs. The improvement in delivery services of cyclone warning after the intiative as compared to prior to initiative are shown in the Table 6. Table 5. Comparison of cyclone warning products and bulletins before and after the initiative SN Parameters Bulletin issued before Bulletin issued after initiative initiative(2010) 1 Date and time of issue of bulletin Date only Both date and time 2 Current location, intensity Yes Yes 3 Past movement Yes Yes 4 Forecast validity period Upto 24 hrs Upto 72 hrs(+6, +12, +18, +124, +36, +48, +60 and +72 hrs) 5 Quality of forecast track and (Qualitative) Quantitative. intensity 6 Landfall point and time Qualitative Quantitative with lati/long of landfall and time 7 Prognostic and diagnostic features Nil Detailed features are explained in the Technical bulletin. 08 Graphical presentation of No Yes observed and forecast track 9 Adverse weather (Heavy rain, Storm surge for Indian For coasts of all member Gale wind and storm surge) coast only countries of WMO/ESCAP Panel 10 Advice and action suggested Yes Yes, but more specific
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Table 6. Beneficiaries feedback of cyclone warning services before and after initiative SN Parameters Beneficiaries feedback Beneficiaries feedback after initiative before initiative (e.g. 2010) 1 Number of deaths Higher Less 2 Loss due to evacuation of Higher Less people due to uncertainty in forecast 3 Quality of warning Poor Good presentation 3 Appreciation by disaster Limited Appreciation by central & state Govt management agencies agencies, and neighbouring countries 4 Number of warnees Less, e.g. six in 2003- More, e.g. Fifteen in 2009-10 at 04 at national level national level 5 Number of visitors to Less (No counter) Significantly higher. Number of cyclone page of IMDs visitor during last cyclone, PHET website (June 2010) : 40, 000 (Approx) Loss of lives due to cyclones The loss lives due to cyclone has reduced significantly due to many factors including improvement in early warning system of cyclone. Characteristics of two similar severe cyclones crossing Andhra Pradesh coast near Machhilipatnam in 2003 and 2010 are shown hear as example to compare the loss of human lives. Cyclone period : Cyclone category Point of landfall Maximum wind at landfall Landfall forecast error 24 hr lead time 48 hr lead time 72 hr lead time Loss of human lives 4. Challenges of FDP With repeated attempt, the aircraft probing of TCs could not be possible till now. It is major challenge for FDP-2012. The FDP on landfalling TCs over the Bay of Bengal with aircraft probiong facility will help us in minimising the error in monitoring and hence prediction of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts (Martin and Gray 1993). In addition, this project will help in the following. (a) Validation of Dvorak technique over the NIO (b) Validation of pressurewind relationship in TCs over the NIO (c) Understanding and prediction of structure of TCs over the NIO. (d) Development/validation of wind conversion factor for converting 3-minute average wind to 1minute average wind (used in Dvoraks technique) and 10-min average wind (as required for preparation of standardised international best tracks archives) (e) Reanalysis of best tracks with modified pressurewind relationship, wind adjustment and modified Dvorak classification of intensity (f) Improvement/validation of performance of numerical weather prediction models
(c).
17-21 May 2010 Severe cyclone South of Machhilipatnam 100 kmph
11-16 December 2003 Severe cyclone South of Machhilipatnam 100 kmph
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The other major challenges include (i) assimilation of regional data and development of suitable global and regional models for cyclone prediction with suitable modification of model physics, resolution and initial and boundary conditions (ii) development of ensemble prediction system based on IMD GFS and WRF models. 5. Conclusions The FDP on landfalling cyclones over the Bay of Bengal has helped in improvement of monitoring, forecasting and warning of cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. The observational network, tools and technologies, especially the NWP models have improved significantly during 2008-2010. As a result, the 24 hr forecast track error has reduced from 163km during 2003-2007 to 141 km during 2008-2010. However, the main challenge of the FDP is still to be realised with the introduction of aircraft probing of cyclones and dropsonde experiments. References Martin JD, Gray WM (1993) Tropical cyclone observation and forecasting with and without aircraft reconnaissance. Weather Forecast 8:519532 Mohapatra, M., B. K. Bandyopadhyay, Ajit Tyagi, 2011, Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review, Natural Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9935-0. RSMC, New Delhi (2009) Report on cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during 2008. IMD, New Delhi RSMC, New Delhi (2010) Report on cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during 2009. IMD, New Delhi RSMC, New Delhi (2011) Report on cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during 2010. IMD, New Delhi
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Utility of Tropical Cyclone Module for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean M Mohapatra, Naresh Kumar and B. K. Bandyopadhyay India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 1. Introduction The tropical cyclone (TC) forecast & warning operations and decision-making process should be made by blending scientifically based conceptual models, meteorological datasets, technology and expertise (IMD, 2003). The tropical cyclone module (TCM) available in synergie system since the end of 2009 provides a digitized platform for the above purpose As adverse weather warning depends on the track forecast, this TCM helps in accurate prediction of adverse weather and hence effective management of TC. This TCM is helpful in improving (i) cyclone analysis and forecasting procedure and (ii) warning products generation, presentation & dissemination. All these aspects are presented and analysed herewith. 2. cyclone analysis and forecasting procedure A new weather analysis and forecasting system in a digital environment has been established at National Weather Forecasting Centre, New Delhi to plot and analyse different weather parameters, satellite, Radar and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model products. An integrated fully automated forecasting environment facility is thus available for this purpose. The manual synoptic weather forecasting has been replaced by hybrid systems in which synoptic method could be overlaid on NWP models supported by modern graphical and GIS applications to produce high quality analyses Ensemble of forecasts from NWP models at different scales - global, regional and mesoscale Prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone Specialized warning information to various sectors
Initial conditions (Observations) Synoptic Satellite
Runs of different Models, Consecutive runs from the same model, Ensemble runs ("choosing the best member")
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Numerical forecasts
End forecast
*Central / State Govt/ Media/ Public
Fig.1. Strategy adopted for cyclone analysis and forecasting The major highlights of the strategies followed for monitoring and prediction of cyclone are shown in the Figure 1. The TCM installed in this forecasting system has the following facilities. Analysis of all synoptic, satellite and NWP model products for genesis, intensity and track monitoring and prediction Preparation of past and forecast tracks upto 120 hrs Depiction of uncertainty in track forecast
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Structure forecasting (Forecast of wind in different sectors of cyclone) However all the data are not still available in TCM through synergie system. For better monitoring and prediction, addition help is taken of ftp and websites to collect and analyse: Radar data and products from IMDs radar network and neighbouring countries Satellite imageries and products from IMD and international centres Data, analysis and forecast products from various national and international centres
Comparison of various model predictions
Display of wind radii envelop
Display of wind radii envelop
Fig.2. Utility of Modernised cyclone analysis and forecasting system using TCM
Averag e time (minutes ) c ons umed by R S MC , N ew D elh i to is s u e the warnin g bulletin y = -13x + 201.5 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 189 R = 0.84 180 152 155
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Fig.3. Average time consumed by RSMC, New Delhi to issue cyclone warning bulletin since last three hourly synoptic observations To ensure the availability of the data and forecast products from various national and international sources at Cyclone Warning Division, IMD, New Delhi, an institutional mechanism was developed in consultation with all the stake holders. A standard operation procedure (SOP) has been prepared for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances and issue of warning. It includes the road map and check lists for this purpose. 3. Warning products generation, presentation & dissemination Various steps were taken by the nominee to improve product generation, presentation and dissemination, which could enhance the users response for effective cyclone disaster management. A few highlights of the initiative are discussed herewith. A few examples of products generated using TCM are shown in Fig. 2.The time of issue and frequency of bulletins have been standardized. The frequency of bulletin has also been increased with reduction in time required for issue of bulletin as shown in Fig.3. The design of the bulletin has been revised with inclusion of prognostic and diagnostic features, observed and forecast track and intensity and adverse weather in graphical form. Conclusions The TCM is a very good tool for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances and associated adverse weather. However, it needs to be used in conjunction with other data, information and products available from national and international centres. References : IMD, 2003, Cyclone Manual, India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi
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Climatology and intensification of Bay of Bengal Cyclonic storms K.Seetharam Meteorological Centre, Hyderabad It has long been hypothesized the large scale atmospheric forcings for enhanced convection, warmer sea surface temperatures, low level voriticity and windshear and availability of midtropospheric humidity are favourable for cyclogenesis and intensification over Bay of Bengal tropical storms. The cyclonic storms and severe cyclonic storms data sets for a period of 120 years 1891-2010 formed over Bay of Bengal were collected from the e-atlas of India Meteorological Department. It is seen from the data sets that during the period 1891-2010 506 cyclonic storms were formed over Bay of Bengal (on an average 8) and 221 of them intensified in to the Severe Cyclonic storm stage (44%) with an average of 4. Overall, on an average 50% of the cyclonic storms formed over Bay of Bengal intensified in to Severe Cyclonic Storms. The trend was little erratic prior to 60s but there is a continuous and systematic decrease in the cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal from 60s onward up to 2000 and started again rising in 2001-2010. Examination of the plots of data sets showed overall decreasing trend in the total number of cyclonic storms and overall increasing trend in the total number of severe cyclonic storms when fitted with linear trend. When a 6th degree polynomial trend was fitted to the data sets with forward forecast for next 5 years, the trends were alternating with different periods in case of both cyclonic storms and severe cyclonic storms but the forecast showed increasing trend in both cyclonic storms and severe cyclonic storms beyond 2010. Further the data sets have been divided in to two epochs. The epoch I is the period 1891-1950 and epoch II is the period 1951-2010. Comparison of epoch I and epoch II showed that the total number of cyclonic storms formed in the Bay of Bengal was 284 out of which 94 intensified up to the stage of Severe Cyclonic storms (33%) in the epoch I and total number of cyclonic storms formed in the Bay of Bengal was 221 out which 127 intensified up to the stage of Severe Cyclonic storms (57%) in epoch II. The intensification of the systems is stronger during the epoch II than the epoch I even though there is a decrease in the total number of cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal from epoch I to epoch II. Moreover, further examination of the data sets on the decadal scale showed that 35 cyclonic storms formed in the Bay of Bengal during the decade 19811990 out of which 22 (63%) intensified in to Severe Cyclonic Storms and during the decade 20012010 32 cyclonic storms formed in the Bay of Bengal out of which only 11 (34%) intensified in to Severe Cyclonic Storms. In this paper the environmental conditions like SSTs and Relative Humidity during the two contrasting decades 1981-1990 & 2001-2010 were compared. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken are the extended Kaplan SSTs taken for decades 1981-1990 & 2001-2010 from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets. The study indicated the unusual warming in the West Central Bay and East Central Bay is leading to the intensification of cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal. The Relative Humidity is also taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The study of the humidity pattern between 1000 hPa and 500 hPa levels indicated low humidity in lower levels and higher humidity during the period 1981-1990 in comparison with the period 2001-2010 with negative N-S gradient in both levels.
Fig. 1 Decade wise Cyclonic Storms/Severe Cyclonic Storms over Bay of Bengal (1891-2010) with linear trends fitted
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Fig.2. Year-wise Cyclonic Storms and Severe Cyclonic Storms over Bay of Bengal (18912010) fitted with 6th degree polynomial trend
Fig. 3. Year-wise Cyclonic Storms and Severe Cyclonic Storms over Bay of Bengal (18912010) fitted with linear trend References Briegel, Lisa M., William M. Frank, 1997: Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific, Monthly Weather Review, 125, pp 13971413. Joseph P.V. and Prince K. Xavier., (1999), Monsoon Rainfall and Frequencies of Monsoon Depressions and Tropical Cyclones of recent 100 years and an outlook for the first decades of the 21st century., Meteorology beyond-2000, Proceedings of National Symposium Tropmet-99., 16-19 Feb 1999, Editors A.K. Bhatnagar et al., Indian Meteorological Society, Chennai Chapter., 364-371. Kalnay, E. and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, No. 3, pp 437-471.
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Ramesh Kumar M.R & Sankar S, 2010, Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean, Indian Journal of Marine Sciences Vol. 39(4), pp. 516-520 Seetharam,K, 2004,Statistics of cyclonic disturbances in the North Indian Ocean, Mausam, 55 No.4, pp 698-704. Sikka, D.R, 1977,Some aspects of life history structure and movement of monsoon depressions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 115, pp1501-1529. Sujata Mandke K and Usha Bhide V, 2003,A study of storm frequency over Bay of Bengal,Journal of Indian Geophysical Union, Vol.7, No.2, pp 53-58
Fig.. 4 Year wise Cyclonic storms and Severe Cyclonic Storms (2001-2010)
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Study of wind shear, squall lines and cloud top temperatures in association with Tropical cyclone Charan Singh India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 1. Introduction In Tropical cyclone (TC) is a most disastrous weather phenomena, it causes huge damage to the life and property all around the world. To understand its dynamics mainly inner core and effects of surrounding environment mechanism is very essential. In north Indian Ocean (NIO), this becomes very important as some TCs cause huge amount of rainfall, but in some cases very less rainfall is observed. These are described as moist and dry air environment tropical cyclones. Orissa super TC & Nargis are the examples of moist air environment and Ogni & Sidar are the dry air environment TCs. Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) play an important role in genesis, intensification and weakening of TCs as at the time of genesis and strengthening phase, it enhances the mixing of moist air in vertical column and on weakening phase it enhances dry air mixing which causes rapid weakening of the system. Squall lines form ahead of the TCs due to increase in instability and transport of energy from the TCs. Squall lines along with rainband clouds associated with TCs are the main causes of rain and thunderstorms. TCs, which made landfall over Indian coasts, the associated rainfall is mainly confined to the right forward sector followed by left forward sector, it also depends upon the season and depth convection. TCs formed just before or after of the southwest monsoon, generally cause more rainfall than other TCs. Also, TCs associated with Cloud Top Temperature (CCT) -600C cause very heavy rainfall (15-25 cm in 24 hours) over the respective area. It is observed that the rainfall also depends on the speed of TCs as slow moving TCs cause much more rainfall rather than fast moving TCs. Role of Vertical Wind Shear, Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) of horizontal winds is generally considered as a resultant vector wind between 200 and 850 hPa level. The main function of the wind shear is to sustain the cloud clusters in a vertical form. When a cloud clusters develops over the sea surface due to higher Sea Surface Temperature (SST) or Ocean Heat Contents (OHC), which depends on the vertical profile of the sea, the sea surface transmits the energy to the air parcels, where atmosphere is already unstable. Initially air parcel lifts to the free level convection then moist air mixing starts and system starts grow. In the presence of the sufficient OHC, it continues to strengthen [Fig. 1] (RSMC, New Delhi report, 2002) and the height of the cloud increases with decrease in the VWS and start mixing of moist air. As VWS starts increase ( 12 kts), the dry air mixing increases and upper parts of TCs also start drifting along strong upper air winds [Fig.2] (RSMC, New Delhi report, 2007). As a result TCs start losing its intensity.
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3. Role of squall lines and rainbands: Squall lines are a kind of linear organization meso-scale convective systems, which cause torrential rainfall and thunderstorms. They may appear ahead of landfalling TCs in general. The criteria to define squall line is similar to Parker and Johnss (2000). The region exceeding 40 dBz reflectivity must extend longer than 100 km for at least 2-3 hours and convection of this region is organized in linear or quasi linear shape with an apparent common leading edge. The squall lines sometimes are seen separated from the rainbands of TCs [Fig. 3] (RSMC, New Delhi report, 2001). The analysis of radar images show an apparent moisture increase towards the formation position of the squall line obviously due to the transportation of moisture through the outer flow of the approaching TCs. In general landfalling TCs cause squall lines in its front quadrants. 4. Cloud top temperature: In TCs, maximum rainfall occur in the area of maximum convection zone (Corbosiero, K. L., and J. Molinari, 2002). According to (Raghavan, 1991). The maximum low level convergence appears to occur in the right sector, which contributes to this maximum in the right rear sector and the formation of convective streamer bands in the rear. To assess the strength of convection, CTT from infra-red satellite imagery is used as the proxy. Colder CCT of convective clouds suggests that the vertical extent of the cloud is more. Therefore, CTT is used as a measure of convection strength. Isotherm analysis of CTT reveals that for most of the cases, convection generally tends to be enhanced over the region to the right of the track. In general, about 70% convection is to the right of track [Fig. 4 &5], which is well in agreement with the distribution of rainfall. In most of the cases, intense to very intense convection is observed in the inner core of the TCs during the landfall processes. The asymmetries in convection are also observed. It is due to unequal VWS in vertical levels (Corbosiero, K. L., and J. Molinari, 2002). Very severe cyclonic storm over Bay of Bengal during October 15-19, 1999 moved in a north-northeasterly direction before landfall near Gopalpur (Orissa) in the early morning of 18 October, 1999. Satellite imagery received at 0230 hours IST of 18 October [Fig. 5] shows dense cloud mass with CTT -80- to -400C, spread over about 350 kms diameter elongated along the track [Fig.4] of the TC. Study reveals that the maximum rainfall has occurred within 150 kms radius from the landfall point and it was located on both sides along the track. It is clear in this case that the maximum rainfall occurred over the area which lay under the most convective cloud cover. The right first quadrant in this case also got good amount of rainfall that ranged between 25-30 cm and it further extends beyond 300 kms of diameter. Fig. 6 shows that the 24 hours accumulated rainfall is, to a certain extent inversely proportional to the speed of movement of TCs with the best fit for speed range 4-10 knots. The maximum rainfall from a landfalling TCs moving with speed in the range 4-10 knots can be estimated by R(extreme) = 5.3429 X ( speed ) + 64.905 , with a standard deviation of 8.9 mm which is quite
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large. Large standard deviation arises due to smaller data set used in the study. Thus assessing extreme rainfall amount in ranges will give a better result rather than quantifying it with a single number. Studies by (Singh and Bandyopadhyay, 2007) suggest that most of the TCs over NIO basins move with a transitional speed between 4-12 knots. Therefore, the above emperical relation could be used as a first guess by the operational forecasters to assess the extreme rainfall that could occur in association with landfalling TCs. 5. Conclusion: Understanding of TCs inner core structure and effects of surrounding environment mechanism is very essential to forecast the intensity and movement of TCs. In general, moist air environment TCs cause more rainfall and bigger in size in comparison to dry air environment TCs. Wind shear play an important role in genesis, intensification and weakening of TCs. At the time of strengthening, the wind shear is generally 12 kts and at weakening stage it is generally 13 kts. However, it is very difficult to fix the criteria of threshold value of VWS. Squall lines along with rainbands clouds associated with TCs are the main causes of rain and thunderstorms. For TCs, which made landfall over Indian coasts, the associated rainfall is mainly confined to the right forward sector followed by left forward sector, and also depends upon the season and CCTs. During landfall process, the CCT -600C cause very heavy rainfall (15-25 cm in 24 hours) over the respective area. It is observed that the rainfall also depends on the speed of TCs as slow moving TCs cause much more rainfall than fast moving TCs. Understanding the dynamics of the TCs and the surrounding environment is still needed for prediction of location specific extremely heavy rainfall.
References: Corbosiero, K.L., and J. Molinari, 2002: The effect of vertical wind shear on the distribution of convection in tropical cyclones. Mon.Wea.Rev. 130, 2110-2123. India Meteorological Department: Forecasting manual IV-23 weather radar as an aid to forecasting 1991 by S Raghavan. Parker, M.D.and R.H.Johnson, 2000: Organizational models of mid-latitude meso-scale convective systems. Mon.Wea.Rev.128, 3413-3436. RSMC, New Delhi report, 2007, 2008 and 2001: A report on cyclonic disturbances over north Indian ocean during 2007. Published by IMD, New Delhi. Singh, C., and Bandyopadhyay, B.K. 2004: Behaviour of tropical cyclones along the east coast of India prior to landfall. Mausam, 58, 2, pp 273-279.
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Performance of modified CLIPER model for tropical cyclone track prediction over the north Indian Ocean R. P. Sharma, M. Mohapatra and B. K. Bandyopadhyay India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 E-Mail : mohapatraimd@gmail.com 1. Introduction India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the nodal agency for prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean. The cyclone forecasts have improved steadily in the recent decade (RSMC, New Delhi, 2011) due to improvement in monitoring and forecasting technique, analysis tools and knowledge and human expertise. However, the very basic climatology and persistence (CLIPER) models for the prediction of TC motion still have a number of applications in a forecast office and continue to be developed. Some of these applications, not all of which refer directly to the forecast process, are to 1) provide a convenient frame of reference upon which the performance of more sophisticated models can be assessed, 2) enable the assessment of forecast difficulty, 3) provide a convenient way to generate bogus TC tracks, 4) provide a first guess forecast, and 5) provide a reasonable forecast in portions of basins where deviations from climatology and persistence are small (Pike and Neumann, 1987, Bessafi et al, 2002). Over the north Indian Ocean, the CLIPER model was first developed by Sikka and Suryanarayana (1968) for forecasting the movement of tropical storm for 24 hr period. Neumann and Mandal (1978) developed a modified CLIPER model based on data of 1282 storms during 1877-1974 including depressions to forecast the track upto 72 hrs in the interval of 12 hrs. However, there has been significant improvement in monitoring technique leading to error in estimation of location and intensity errors in recent decades (Mohapatra et al, 2011). Hence, it is felt that the existing CLIPER model should be modified with inclusion of cyclone data set upto recent years for better reference model. In this study, we present the characteristics of modified CLIPER model and its performance with respect to cyclones during forecast demonstration project (FDP) period (2008-10). 2. Characteristics of modified CLIPER The modified CLIPER model is based on the data set of all the cyclones and depressions during 1891-2009 over the north Indian Ocean based on cyclone e-Atlas published by IMD (2008). It includes the same parameters as predictors which was used by Neumann and Mandal (1987). It uses the regression equation based on primary predictors to forecast the track upto 72 hrs in the interval of 12 hrs. The predictors include the current and previous 12-hr position, the day of the year, and the intensity of the system (depression/cyclone). The initial motion of the storm (persistence) is the most important predictor for this model. 3. Performance of modified CLIPER model over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) The performance of the modified CLIPER has been evaluated by calculating the track forecast errors of old and modified CLIPER models with respect to six hourly (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC) best track data of tropical cyclones (TC) over the north Indian Ocean in post monsoon season (October to December) during recent three years (2008-2010). This period is considered as maximum data were collected during this period under forecast demonstration project (FDP) on landfalling cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, the best track data have been collected from the reports on cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean published by RSMC, New Delhi (2009, 2010, 2011). There were six cyclones during this period as mentioned in Table 1. The results are presented and discussed in the following sections.
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S.N. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Table 1. Details of TCs considered under the study TC Period Cyclonic storm, RASHMI 26-28 October 2008 Cyclonic storm, KHAI MUK 11-13 November 2008 Cyclonic storm, NISHA 26-28 November 2008 Cyclonic storm, WARD 10-15 December 2009 Very severe cyclonic storm, GIRI 20-23 October 2010 Severe cyclonic storm, JAL 4-8 November 2010
3.1. Track error of modified CLIPER model The mean track errors of the modified CLIPER model based on the data of six TCs under consideration are presented in Table 2. It is observed that the track error increases with increase in forecast time period. The mean 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hr track forecast errors are 97, 180, 256, 363, 461 and 540 respectively. Compared to 68, 150, 216, 292, 361, 392 km found in earlier study of Mandal and Neumann (1978) based on data of 1877-1974and 62, 147, 240, 338, 431, 517 km by Bessafi et al (2002) based on data of 1988-1997 for the year as a whole including storm and depression. The results indicate that the forecast difficulty level is higher during the post monsoon season. It may be due to the typical tracks of the systems including northeastwards and southwestward recurvature in case of TC GIRI and WARD respectively. Table 2. Track forecast error based on modified CLIPER Model Lead time(hrs) Error (Km) No. of cases 12 97 49 24 180 37 36 256 25 48 363 16 60 461 10 72 540 8 The modified CLIPER model has helped to provide better guidance also in respect of larger spatial coverage and larger lead period compared to older model. To illustrate this fact, the number of additional cases of forecasts for which guidance is available from the modified CLIPER model is shown in Table 3. It is due to improvement in climatological database. Table 3. No. of additional forecasts available from modified CLIPER Model due to improvement in climatological database. Lead time(hrs) No. of cases 12 8 24 10 36 4 48 2 60 3 72 3 4. Conclusions: The modified CLIPER model provides better spatial and temporal prediction coverage. It could provide prediction for more lead period and more geographical area due to increase in climatological database. It needs to be further validated for entire north Indian Ocean and during the entire satellite era since 1960 to analyse its efficiency over the region.
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References Bessafi, M., A. Lasserre-Bigorry, C. J. Neumann, F. Pignolet-Tardan, D. Payet, and M. Lee-ChingKen, 2002, Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion: An AnalogCLIPER Approach, Weather and Forecasting, 17, 821-831. Neumann, C. J., and G. S. Mandal, 1978: Statistical prediction of tropical storm motion over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Indian J. Meteor. Hydrol. Geophys., 29, 487500. Pike, A. C., and C. J. Neumann, 1987: The variation of track forecast difficulty among tropical cyclone basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 237241. Mohapatra, M., Bandyopadhyay, B.K. and Tyagi, Ajit, 2011, Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review, Natural Hazards, DOI/10.1007/s11069-0119935-0 Sikka, D. R., and Suryanarayana, R., 1968, India Met. Dep., Sci. Rep., 76, 268pp RSMC, New Delhi, 2009, Reports on Cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2008, published by IMD, New Delhi. RSMC, New Delhi, 2010, Reports on Cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2009, published by IMD, New Delhi. RSMC, New Delhi, 2011, Reports on Cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2010, published by IMD, New Delhi.
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Possible causes for absence of cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal during October-November 2009 S. ADHIKARY1 AND M. MOHAPATRA2 India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003 Email: s.adhikary.india@gmail.com1 and mohapatra_imd@yahoo.com2 Introduction: India has a coastline of about 7,516 km of which 5,400 km is along mainland. The entire coast is affected by cyclones with varying frequency and intensity. Though only about five cyclones develop over north Indian Ocean during a year out of 80 cyclones developing over the globe, more than 75% of the human deaths occur over the north Indian Ocean rim countries due to the cyclones. Thus the disaster managers and planners need the prediction of cyclogenesis well in advance. Tourism, insurance and re-insurance companies also make use of seasonal forecasts in their policy decision. To predict cyclogenesis, at first detailed understanding about causes of formation and absence of cyclone is required. There are many case studies regarding causes of cyclone but few case studies about absence of cyclone. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) can be considered as one of the factors for occurrence or absence of cyclone. As all cyclonic disturbances (CDs) are initially formed from these convective cloud clusters (Kalsi, 2002), the modulation of activity during MJO passage is likely to be an important factor to cyclogenesis. However, the effect of the MJO on the dynamical parameters may also have an important role to play. There are very few cases in the recorded history of CD over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) when there has been no CD over the Bay of Bengal during October to November. There have been five such years, viz. 1895, 1911, 1920, 1957 and 2009 during 1891 - 2010. However out of the five years, 2009 is the only year in the satellite era when data on sea areas are most reliable (Mohapatra, et al 2011). Considering this, a case study has been taken to explain the possible causes of absence cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal during October November 2009. Data and methodology: In this case study, we have tried to find out whether only MJO is responsible for the absence of cyclone during October November 2009 or some other dynamical parameters are also responsible. In our study, we have taken MJO data from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia (http://www.cawcr.gov.au). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (Kistler et al, 2001) is utilized dynamical parameters. The reanalysis product provides global data on a 2.50 latitude and 2.50 longitude grid for a large number of dynamical and thermo dynamical parameters including zonal and meridional wind, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height, sea surface temperature (SST) etc. The reanalysis products are a combination of assimilated observations along with model derived approximations. The region of study has been taken as 500 E to 1200 E and equator to 400N, which is reasonably large to take into account the physical relationship between the cyclogenesis and the large scale field parameters. The statistics of cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal during October - November have been taken from the best track data set published as Cyclone E-Atlas by IMD. Result and discussion: Analyzing the MJO index (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004), the MJO was in the phase 4 and 5 during 1 10 October and it continued to be in phase 8 and 1 which are not favourable for cyclogenesis over the NIO (Mohapatra and Adhikary, 2011). Though the phase was favourable during 1 10 Oct., the amplitude was less which did not support intensification (Fig. 1). During November, the MJO index lay over phase 3, 4 and 5 during 7th to 23rd November. Among those days, during 7-12 November there was higher amplitude resulting development of cyclone, Phyan
1.
2.
3.
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over Arabian Sea and no development of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal. Besides MJO, all the Gray parameters (Gray, 1968) for cyclogenesis have been analysed to find out the possible causes for the absence of CD during October to November 2009. The middle layer relative humidity (RH) was not favourable as it was significantly below normal. Geo potential height anomaly and OLR anomaly were positive over the BoB indicating suppressed convection. During this period SST was near normal. Also there was dominating mid latitude westerlies penetrating into Indian region leading to reverse pressure gradient with low over Tibetan region and high over south BoB in October and November 2009. 4. Conclusion: The MJO is not the only determining factor for the occurrence / non-occurrence of CDs over the BoB. However its interaction with the dynamical and thermo dynamical features plays an important role in cyclogenesis over the BoB. References: Kalsi, S. R., 2002, Use of satellite imagery in tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting, Meteorological Monograph, Cyclone Warning Division, No. 1/2002, IMD, New Delhi 110 003. Kistler, R. et al, 2001, The NCEP/NCAR 50 years reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bulletin, American Meteorological Society, 82, 247 267. Mohapatra, M. and Adhikary, S., Modulation of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean by Madden - Julian oscillation, MAUSAM, 62, 3 (July 2011), 375-390. Mohapatra, M., Bandyopadhyay, B. K., Tyagi, Ajit., 2011, Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review", Natural Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069011-9935-0 Wheeler, Matthew C. and Hendon, Harry H., 2004, An all-season real-time multivariate MJO Index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 19171932.
Fig. 1: The amplitude and phase of MJO index (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) during Oct. Nov. 2009.
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WARD Cyclone A Case Study S.R. Ramanan, K.V. Balasubramanian and M.Veerakumar Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai Introduction A cyclonic storm (CS) WARD (10-15 December, 2009) developed over southwest Bay of Bengal (BOB) and crossed northeast Sri Lanka coast, close to south of Trincomalee as a deep depression (DD) between 0800 and 0900 UTC of 14th December, 2009. It weakened into a wellmarked low pressure area (WML) over north Sri Lanka at 0300 UTC of 15th December, 2009. It then emerged into Gulf of Mannar and became insignificant on 16th December. Cyclone WARD followed a rare track, as it moved initially in a northerly direction (Fig.: 1) and moved in a westsouthwesterly direction across Sri Lanka. It was a slow moving system, as it travelled at the average rate of 200 km per day (8 km per hour). Before landfall it weakened into a depression. In this study various features of WARD cyclone is discussed. Muthuchami and Sridharan (2008) have studied the intensification and movement of CS in BOB during post-monsoon season. Krishna Rao (1997) has described the synoptic methods of forecasting tropical cyclones (TC). Desai and Walkar have observed that a CS recurve to the north and to the northeast when there is a passage of middle and upper troposheric westerly trough. Occurrence of higher preceipitable water content, higher air temperature at 300 hPa level and higher upward vertical velocity in lower levels may be indicative of future movement of a CS (Rameshchand and Mohapatra 2007). Raj et. al. (2007) considered that the SCS of BOB during post monsoon season are characterised by the presence of low OLR in the west/northwest and front/left front sector. Research over the past four decades has established that environmental forces at large radii have a significant impact on tropical cyclone intensification. It has also been established that environmental vertical wind shear has a detrimental effect on TC strength. This fact has been confirmed in recent studies. While small amounts of vertical shear have been seen as beneficial to TC development shears above 8-12m/s have proven deleterious to TC intensity and structure. {Levi Thatcher and Zhaoxia Pu (2011)}. Lei Yang et. al. (2011) considered that the West Pacific Subtropical High of winter-time may be a critical modulator of TC tracks in north Indian ocean region, specifically during post-winter-monsoon period. Moreover, such a strong weather system is associated with Northeast Trade Wind and East Asia Winter Monsoon. How westward this system extends is predictable when information on whether TC in BOB moves westward is available. However this mechanism and causal relationship between the West Pacific Subtropical High as well as possible modulated systems will have to be investigated in the future. Earlier to WARD cyclone of 2009 there is only one CS during 28th November to 7th December 1996 which had unusual movement (Fig. 2). This system made first loop over central BOB near longitude 87.00 E on the night of 30th November, 1996 and later had a second loop near the coast of Andhra Pradesh during the night of 4th December, 1996. Thus, the system created a unique history in its movement over the BOB. There is no parallel example in the past when a cyclone executed two loops in the BOB. The very rare southward movement of a tropical cyclone has been captured well by the altostratus warming from 0758UTC/3rd December 1996 (Suresh, 2005). WARD cyclone is another such CS which initially moved northwards, then westsouthwestwards and thus followed a rare track.
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Results and discussion Genesis Convective cloud clusters were seen over the south east BOB during first week of December, 2009 in association with an active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This developed into a WML over southwest and adjoining south east Bay on 10th morning {Fig. 3(a)}. It concentrated into a depression at 0900 UTC of 10th near 6.50 N/85.00 E. Intensification and movement It further intensified into a deep depression (DD) near 7.00 N/84.00 E at 0000 UTC of 11th December {Fig. 3(b)}. While moving northward, it intensified into a CS WARD at 0900 UTC of the same day near 8.50 N/84.50 E. It continued as a CS and moved slowly northward till 0600 UTC of 12th December {Fig. 3(c)}. It then moved west-south westwards and weakened into a DD over south west BOB at 1800 UTC of 12th near 9.50 N/83.50 E. Continuing to move in a west-south westerly direction, it crossed northeast Sri Lanka coast close to the south of Trincomalee between 0800 and 0900 UTC of 14th as a DD. It weakened further into a depression over north Sri Lanka close to Trincomalee at 0900 UTC of 14th and into a WML over Sri Lanka at 0300 UTC of 15th December. It emerged into the Gulf of Mannar as a LOPAR at 1200 UTC of the same day and became less marked at 0900 UTC of 16th December. The track of the system is shown in Fig. 1. The storm was tracked mostly on the basis of satellite imageries {(Fig 3 (a) to (g)}. Environmental features The environmental features like sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear of horizontal wind, mid-tropospheric humidity, low level convergence, upper level divergence were favourable for cyclogenesis over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during the first week of December. The sea surface temperature was about 28-30 deg. C over this region. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind was low to moderate (10-15 knots) throughout the life period of the system except 12th December evening when the wind shear became moderate to high (20-30 knots) {Fig. 6 (a) and (b)}. It led to the weakening of the system over the sea. However, from 13th onwards, the wind shear became low to moderate again favouring intensification of the system. Though, the system did not intensify further due to its interaction with land surface, as it lay close to Sri Lanka, it could maintain its intensity of deep depression due to favourable vertical wind shear {Fig. 6 (a) and (b)} and high ocean thermal energy. The system was close to the upper tropospheric ridge in association with the upper tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation throughout the life period of cyclone leading to slow movement of the system. It was more dominant in the initial phase leading to near northerly movement of the system till 12th December morning. However, the system lay to the south of a well defined mid-tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation, which guided the system to move in a southwesterly direction from 12th December onwards {Fig. 5 (a) and 5(b)}. As the system came closer to Sri Lanka coast, the upper tropospheric flow also supported the system to move in a west southwesterly direction. Realised weather The system was away from the Tamil Nadu coast for most part of its life cycle. When the system weakened in to a Low pressures area and emerged into a Gulf Mannar as a trough it gave rainfall in Tamil Nadu on 15th and 16th December, 2009. Past studies have indicated that whenever a trough of low lies over Gulf of Mannar with upper air wind favourable up to even one Km is sufficient enough to generate wide spread rainfall over coastal area leading to active/vigorous monsoon over coastal Tamil Nadu.
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Fig. 1: Track of WARD cyclone Fig. 2: Track of CS TC08B (source: IMD) 28th November 1996 to 7th December 1996 with unsual southwestward movement.
(a) 10.12.2009 0600 UTC - Cluster of clouds in association with ITCZ forming a WML
(b) 11.12.2009 0600 UTC DD 8.0/84.5
(c) 12.12.2009 0600 UTC CS 10.0/84.5 tightly curved banding wrapping into the center.
(d) 13.12.2009 0600 UTC - S- (e) 14.12.2009 0600 UTC ly/SWly movement DD Just before crossing. DD 9.0/83.0 8.5/81.5
(f) 15.12.2009 0600UTC Weakened into a WML over Sri Lanka
(g) 16.12.2009 0600UTC LOPAR over Gulf of Mannar

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Fig. 3 : Sattellite imageries of WARD Cyclone (source; Dundee www.dundee.ac.uk)
(a) 12.12.2009 0000 UTC 10.0/84.5 CS with wind speed 35 kts.
(b) 12.12.2009 1200 UTC 10.0/83.5 convection being sheaed to east of the storm centre
(c) 13.12.2009 0600 UTC 9.0/83.0 DD - wind speed 20 kts -
(d) 13.12.2009 1800 UTC (e) 14.12.2009 - 0000 UTC 9.0/82.5 DD-interaction with land area
(f) 14.12.2009 1200 UTC
(g) 15.12.2009 0000 UTC
Fig. 4 (a) to (g): Satellite derived winds showing low level winds. The low level circulation is strong initially with stronger wind speeds and reducing when WARD started interacting with the land mass of Sri Lanka . source ; RAMMB rammb.cira.colostate.edu
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Fig. 5 (a) and (b): Mass weighted deep layer mean wind in two layers (a) 200 to 850 hPa and (b) 500 to 850 hPa from the balanced 3-D wind field derived from the AMSU temperature retrievals. The area averaging is in an area contained within 0 to 600 km from the centre of the CS.
Fig. 6 (a) and (b): Area averaged vertical wind shear in two layers (a) 200 to 850 hPa and (b) 500 to 850 hPa from the balanced 3-D wind field derived from the AMSU temperature retrievals. The area averaging is in an area contained within 0 to 600 km from the centre of the CS.
Conclusions CS WARD initially moved in a northerly direction but later moved in a est and southwesterly direction since it was close to upper tropospheric ridge till 12th December 2009 morning. Due the same reason it moved very slowly too. Later it moved west and southwestwards because the upper tropospheric flow supported the system to move in that direction. The vertical wind shear became moderate on 12th and due to this the system weakened into a DD. Reference: 1. Desai. D.S., and Walkar.B.D., Recurving cyclonic storms during 1870-74, Mausam, 48, 3 (July, 1997) 421-28. 2. Krishna Rao. A.V.R., Tropical cyclones synoptic methods of forecasting, Mausam, 48, 2 (April, 1997), 239-256. 3. Lei Yang et. al., Recent Hurricane Research - Climate, Dynamics, and Societal Impacts, p227-246, Edited by: Anthony Lupo, Published by InTech, April 2011. 4. Levi Thatcher and Zhaoxia Pu, Recent Hurricane Research - Climate, Dynamics, and Societal Impacts, p-270-286, Edited by: Anthony Lupo, Published by InTech, April 2011. 5. Muthuchami.A and Sridharan.S.,Intensification and movement of cyclonic storms in Bay of Bengal during post monsoon season, Mausam, 59, 1 (January, 2008), 51-68. 6. Rameshchand and Mohapatra, Diagnostic study of re-curving cyclone Mala over Bay of Bengal, Mausam, 61, 1 (January 2010), 11-18. 7. Raj et. al., Severe cyclonic storm of North Indian Ocean, Mausam, 58, 4 (October 2007), 481-500. 8. Suresh.R, Foreshadowing the tracks of tropical depressions and cyclonic storms and understanding their thermo dynamical structure over Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea using TOVS and ATOVS data, ITSC XIV Proceedings, Beijing, China, 25-31 May 2005, published by Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/itwg/itsc/itsc14/proceedings/A43.
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Upper Ocean Observations during the passage of cyclone JAL-2010 Anitha Gera1, Ravichandran M2 and Mitra A. K1,
1 2
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services
Severe Cyclonic Storm Jal which developed from a low pressure system occurred in the Bay of Bengal during 4-8th Nov 2010. The estimated lowest central pressure was 988hpa. The cyclone passed very near to a buoy located at 8 N 85.5E. The buoy recorded upper ocean and met observations during the passage of JAL. These observations are of much value especially in the context of the scanty observations under such severe weather events. These observations therefore analysed to enhance our understanding of the air sea interaction processes and the oceans role during the passage of a cyclone. In addition there are a few Argo floats which recorded the upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles of the upper ocean near to the track of the JAL-2010.The evolution of the mixed layer temperature, salinity and currents are examined as the cylone traversed along its path. Relevant satellite data are also used to complement these in-situ observations.
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Salient features of JAL Cyclone of November 2010 A case Study D. C. GUPTA Meteorological Office, Port Blair, India Email: dcg.srg@gmail.com Abstract: A severe cyclonic storm JAL (04- 08 Nov. 2010) developed over the Bay of Bengal from the remnant of a depression which moved from northwest Pacific Ocean to the Bay of Bengal across southern Thailand. It moved west-northwestwards and intensified upto severe cyclonic storm on 6th November, 2010. However due to lower ocean thermal energy and moderate to high vertical wind shear, the severe cyclonic storm, JAL weakened gradually into a deep depression and crossed North Tamil Nadu South Andhra Pradesh coast, close to North of Chennai near 13.30 N and 80.30 E around 1600 UTC of 07th November 2010. The unique features associated with system was that it weakened into a deep depression over Bay of Bengal before landfall. The convective clouds were sheared to the west to a large extent on the date of landfall, 7th November 2010. As result of this more rainfall occurred over the interior parts of South India than over coastal regions. Introduction: The low pressure system over Indian region are classified on the basis of the maximum sustained winds speed associated with the system and the pressure deficit/ number of closed isobars associated with the system. The pressure criteria are used, when the system is over land and wind criteria is used, when the system is over the sea. The system is called as low if there is one closed isobar in the interval of 2 hPa. It is called depression, if there are two closed isobars, a deep depression, if there are three closed isobars and cyclonic storm if there are four or more closed isobars. Considering wind criteria, the system with wind speed of 17-27 knots is called as depression, the system with wind speed 28-33 knots is called as deep depression, the system with wind speed 34-63 knots is called cyclonic storm, a severe cyclonic storm if the wind speed is 64119 knots and a super cyclonic storm if the wind speed is 120 knots or more. Based on the above criteria, a severe cyclonic storm formed over Bay of Bengal and crossed over North Tamil Nadu/south Andhra Pradesh coast and gave copious amount of rainfall over southern peninsula of India and caused damage of lives & property. Life history (Genesis, intensification/ movement and dissipation) of JAL cyclone: Genesis of JAL cyclone: A depression formed over the West Pacific Ocean on31st Oct.2010 in association with an active Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It moved west north-westwards across Southern Thailand and emerged as a low pressure area over the South Andaman sea on 2nd November. Animated imageries indicated merging of mesoscale convective clusters along with increase in deep convection from 3rd to 4th November, 2010. As result of further improvement in convecting band, the well marked low pressure area continued to move west- northwestwards and concentrated into a depression at 0000 UTC of 04th November over Southeast Bay of Bengal near Lat. 8.00 N and 92.00 E. the track of the system is shown in fig.1. Intensification and movement of JAL cyclone: The system intensified into a Deep Depression in the early morning of 5th November and into a cyclonic storm JAL at 0600 UTC of the same day with centre near lat. 9.00 N and long. 87.50 E about 900 km east-southeast of Chennai. The cyclonic storm JAL over southeast Bay of Bengal continued to move west-northwestwards and intensified further into severe cyclonic storm in the early morning of 6th November, 2010. However as the severe cyclonic storm, JAL moved to southwest Bay of Bengal closer to coast. 3.3 Dissipation of JAL cyclone:
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2.
3. 3.1
3.2
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It entered into a region of lower ocean thermal energy and moderate to high vertical wind shear in association with the strong easterlies in the upper tropospheric level. The high wind shear led to westward shearing of the convective clouds from the system centre and Lower Ocean thermal energy led to unsustainability of convection over the region. Due to these two factors, the severe cyclonic storm ,JAL weakened into a cyclonic storm at 0600 UTC of 7th November2010 over southwest Bay of Bengal with centre near lat.12.50N and long.82.50E, about 250 km east-southeast of Chennai. It weakened further into a deep depression and crossed North Tamil Nadu South Andhra Pradesh coast, close to north of Chennai near 13.30N and 80.30 E around 1600 UTC of 07th November2010. It continued to move west northwestwards and further weakened into a depression at 0300 UTC and into a well marked low pressure area over Rayalaseema and adjoining south interior Karnataka at 0600 UTC of 8th November2010. The weakening of the system before landfall could be attributed to lower ocean heat content, though SST was higher than threshold value. It emerged into the east central Arabian Sea on 9th Nov and then moved initially northwestwards towards Saurashtra &Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coast during 9-11 November. It then moved northeastwards across Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coast and became less marked on 12th November, 2010. The satellite imageries of the system are shown in fig.2. 4.0 Realized weather and associated damage: (a) Rainfall: Rainfall occurred at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over North Tamil Nadu, Pudducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, south interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka. (b) Wind: Squally winds with maximum wind speed reaching upto 60 kmph has been reported from different observatory stations of IMD along North Tamil Nadu south Andhra Pradesh coast. Ennore Port of Tamil Nadu reported 33knots (61kmph) in the forenoon of 7th Nov. 2010. The wind speed decreased at the time of landfall, as the system weakened gradually and crossed as a deep depression. (c) Damage: Andhra Pradesh: Eleven people died in Andhra Pradesh , hundreds of houses were damaged and standing crops over about 15000 hectares were destroyed. A loss of about 83 crores was estimated. Tamil Nadu: Five persons lost their lives about 100 pucca/kutcha houses were either fully or partially damaged. Many boats were damaged and some were missing due to floods. Rail, road and air transport were affected due to heavy rain. Sea water inundated in low lying areas. 5.0 Conclusions: (a) The severe cyclonic storm JAL weakened into a deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal before landfall. (b) the high wind shear led to westward shearing of the convective clouds from the centre of the system. (c) the copious amount of rainfall occurred over interior part of southern Peninsula than its coastal area. Reference: IMD, 2011, RSMC, Report on,Cyclonic disturbances over North Indian ocean during 2010.
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Characteristics of VLF atmospherics during tropical cyclone AILA and several other thunderstorms over North-East India Rakesh Roy , Abhijit Choudhury, Anirban Guha and Barin Kumar De Department of Physics, Tripura Central University, Suryamaninagar-799022, Tripura E-mail: rakeshroy10@gmail.com Lightning discharges radiate most of the electromagnetic energy in the very low frequency (VLF, 3-30 kHz) and extremely low frequency (ELF, 3 Hz-3 kHz) bands. The exact electrical processes inside thunderclouds are not yet exactly understood. It is difficult to accurately construct an empirical model to explain the spectral character of radiated electromagnetic energy from electrified thundercloud. To understand the physical mechanism precisely, more in situ experimental data are required. In the present work, we analyzed the data of VLF atmospherics at four discrete frequencies received at the Department of Physics, Tripura University during the period from April-October, 2009. We selected temporal data from 76 active thunder-active days over North-East India for the present investigation. Results show a total of nine different types of characteristic features in the variation of atmospherics especially during the monsoon period. They are named as Gradual Fall Gradual Rise (GFGR), Gradual Rise Sudden Fall (GRSF), Gradual Rise Gradual Fall (GRGF), Gradual Fall Sudden Rise (GFSR), Sudden Rise Gradual Fall (SRGF), Sudden Rise Sudden Fall (SRSF), Sudden Fall Sudden Rise (SFSR), Sudden Fall Gradual Rise (SFGR) and Spiky. During the monsoon thunder active days, among all the patterns, GRGF occurred in most of the cases at all frequencies with an average occurrence number of 37 at each frequency. During our observational period, the severe tropical cyclonic storm AILA (RSMC Designation BOB02, JTWC Designation 02B) occurred over the Bay of Bengal during 23-26 May 2009. Among several characteristic features during normal monsoon period, SRSF dominated the atmospherics on the 25th May, 2009 with an average occurrence of 86 numbers in each frequency during the period, when the cyclone struck the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. The VLF atmospherics at different frequencies for 25th May, 2009 have also been analyzed statistically. The rise rate and fall rate of the atmospherics for all the patterns are also analyzed for both for the monsoon days and the cyclone active day and comparative study is performed. The possible interpretation of the observed variations in atmospherics is explained on the basis of the dynamic electrical activity that occurs inside the thunder-cloud during cyclonic activity. It appears from the analysis that VLF atmospherics recorded in North-East India can be used as an efficient remote sensing tool to investigate the electrical activity of severe thunderstorms and cyclones over Bay of Bengal.
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The Role of Meteorological Department Telecommunication Infrastructure on Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) program over Bay of Bengal. Sankar Nath India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110003, India The high speed secured communication link to exchange data and warning information is needed as the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) program is aimed to demonstrate the ability of various NWP models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of cyclones over the North Indian ocean with enhanced observations over the data sparse region and to incorporate modification into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal based on the in-situ measurements and following the actual track through Satellite and Radar observations. The Main objective of Telecommunication in IMD is to provide Meteorological data and processed information to forecasters and users in quickest time to meet their time bound operational requirements. Over the time advancements in technologies have always been adopted in IMD. Low speed (up to 300 bps) point t o point teleprinter links were replaced by medium speed (2.5 Kbps) point to point x.25 links and then point to point lease line TCP/IP high speed (64 Kbps) links were introduced and now high speed (256 Kbps to 2 Mbps) any to any MPLS VPN links and high speed internet connectivity have been implemented. VPN links provide secure very fast communication links therefore requirement of transfer of large volume of ASCII and binary data in short time is possible with it. More over data is simultaneously accessible at many locations therefore it has overcome the problem of dependency of one center on other center for data requirements. All AMSS centres, RMCs, MCs, Radar and RS/RW stations have been provided with VPN links with speeds varying between 256 Kbps to 2 Mbps and speeds can further be increased depending upon data flow requirements. A central element in a high technology Meteorological communication environment -TRANSMET AMSS is receive, check and forward automatically, the meteorological data and products according to the WMO standards. TRANSMET interconnects our Meteorological sub-systems procured under modernization project of IMD including High Performance Computer System (HPCs) to run the numerous numerical weather prediction model installed at NWP section; share in real time our data and product internally and from/to the meteorological world. It has the audio-visual warning system for warning message reception and send the whole message to predefined users through e-mail when a message with particular header is received. It also has the ability to retrieve message from E-mail and submit that message to GTS.Warning messages can be diverted to predefined FAX and Mobile numbers through SMS. It can exchange satellite, RADAR, model etc. data file to predefined users as soon as those are received through FTP. The data in various research groups under FDP program were exchange through the FTP server installed at Regional Telecom Hub (RTH) New Delhi as well as through EmailGroup .This FTP server is accessible through high speed internet connectivity. The exchange of warning message to IMDs and disaster management group of different state through SMS were demonstrated through Transmet AMSS.The information of FDP program is also displayed in IMD website http://www.imd.gov.in.It is clear from the above discussion that the Meteorological communication has a vital role for data and processed information to forecasters and users in quickest time to meet their time bound operational requirements as well as conduct any research program.
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Evaluation Of Cone Of Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast over north Indian Ocean Issued by India Meteorological Department D. P. Nayak and M. Mohapatra India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 E-Mail : mohapatraimd@gmail.com 1. Introduction The "cone of uncertainty"-also known colloquially as the "cone of death," "cone of probability," and "cone of error"-represents the forecasted track of the center of a tropical cyclone (TC) and the likely error in the forecast track based on predictive skill of past years as well as numerous additional details about the TC. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the cone of uncertainty (COU) in TC track forecast in December 2009 with effect from TC, WARD over the Bay of Bengal. Comparing the other Ocean basins, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC), USA introduced the COU in 2002. Prior to this, IMD issued quantitatively the 24 hr forecast track and intensity in the interval of 06 hrs in 2003. In 2008, IMD extended this track and intensity forecast upto 72 hrs (every 6 hrs upto 24 hrs and every 12 hrs subsequently upto 72 hrs). Though there was no COU prior to WARD cyclone, IMD used to mention the probable area of landfall, by indicating the likely landfall area between two coastal stations (say, the cyclone is likely to cross Andhya Pradesh coast between Machilipatnam and Nellore). Hear an attempt is made to evaluate the COU issued in the graphics by IMD during 2010. 2. Data and Methodology The COU represents the probable position of a TCs circulation center, and is made by drawing a set of circles centered at each forecast point06, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours for a three-day forecast. The radius of each circle is equal to the average official track forecast errors of 20(35), 40(75), 60(115) and 80(150) nautical miles (km) based on data of 2003-2008 (Table-1). As the official track forecast beyond 24 hrs period was not issued by IMD, the radius of circle is taken as 110(200), 135(250), 165(300) and 190(350) nautical miles(km) based on average errors of quasilagrangian model (QLM) of IMD used for track forecasting during 1999-2008. The cone is then constructed by drawing a tangent line that connects the outside boundary of all the circles. Over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the COU is drawn by considering the official average track forecast errors during past five years. The COU includes several elements, viz: the forecast track line, the cone symbolising the averaged forecast error, landfall area, and background elements, such as the legend, scale, and underlying map. An example is shown in Fig.1. The frequency of official track forecast error for five cyclones (Laila, Phet, Bandu, Giri and Jal) during 2010 (RSMC, New Delhi, 2011) lying within and outside COU for all forecast periods has been calculated and analysed. 3. Results and discussion. The statistics of track forecast errors lying between and out side the COU are given in Table2. It is found that the frequency of errors lying outside the COU increases with increase in lead period of the forecast. The observed tracks of the TCs are thus expected to lie within 55-75 percent of time. It is in agreement with those over other Ocean basin. The entire track of the TC is expected to remain within the COU roughly 60-70% of the time over the north Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Oceans (NHC, 2008). Further, it is found that the frequency of observed track lying outside the COU is higher in case of recurving TCs. The frequency of such cases was maximum in case of PHET, which had a rarest of rare track (RSMC, New Delhi, 2011)
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Fig.1. A typical example of observed and Forecast track of depression which later on became the severe cyclonic storm Jal Table 1. Radius of the circle based on standard error used to construct COU. Forecast period (hrs) Standard error (kms) 12 75 24 150 36 200 48 250 60 300 72 350 Table 2. Statistics of official six hourly track forecast error lying within and outside the COU. Forecast No. of track forecast No. of track forecast Total No. of Period error within COU error outside COU Forecast (hrs) 12 37(66) 19(34) 56(100) 24 29(62) 18(38) 47(100) 36 27(75) 9(25) 36(100) 48 17(61) 11(39) 28(100) 60 13(59) 9(41) 22(100) 72 11(55) 9(45) 20(100) All periods 134(56) 75(44) 209(100) Figures inside the parentheses are the percentage frequencies.
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4. Conclusions There have been impressive strides in both forecast accuracy and lead time in recent years. The COU represents the state of the art in forecast products. The frequency of errors lying outside the COU increases with increase in lead period of the forecast. The observed track of the TCs are thus expected to lie within 55-75 percent of time. The image has been widely adopted and disseminated to the public by the media, in part because it is a graphic and thus telegenic (Lundgren and McMakin 1998). Yet the COU is a complicated figure, containing multiple messages, presented by multiple graphical elements. Hence there is a need for conducting a survey to evaluate the users response to this graphical product, as it is done in other basins. (Broad etal, 2007) References : Kenneth Broad, Anthony Leiserowitz, Jessica Weinkle, And Marissa Steketee, Bams, 2007, Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season, BAMS, May 2007, 1-17 Lundgren, R. E., and A. H. McMakin, 1998: Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety and Health Risks. Batetelle Press, 473 pp NHC, USA, 2008, "Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml. RSMC, New Delhi, 2011, Report On Cyclonic Disturbances Over The North Indian Ocean During 2010, IMD, New Delhi,
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Observational Aspects including DWR for Cyclone Monitoring S. Raghavan G1, Prathyeka Apts., New No 12, Old no. 7, 1st Trust Link St., Mandaiveli, Chennai- 600028 Email: raglaksh@gmail.com The long time dream of routine aircraft reconnaissance of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) affecting the Indian coasts appears close to realisation. This should enable better understanding of TCs and, more importantly, more effective forecasts and warnings. Aircraft observations over the Atlantic and Pacific have over the years contributed the most to our knowledge of TC structure and behaviour. In situ instrumentation, dropsondes and (Doppler and perhaps Polarimetric) Radar (helical scan and configurations like pseudo-dual Doppler) need to be deployed on board. Processing software is quite complex and needs to be robust. Aircraft reconnaissance is taxing in terms of resources and needs to be fully exploited. The possibility of mounting an instruments package when required and releasing the aircraft for other uses at other times needs to be explored. At the surface, traditionally we were dependent on hourly observations from manned coastal observatories and erratic reports from ships. The establishment of Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) over land and data buoys over the ocean in the last few years is a great step forward. AWSs have helped in determining landfall in recent TCs. The geostationary satellites have been our mainstay in detecting systems at sea and estimating their intensity for nearly three decades. Polar orbiting data have been in use from earlier times though continuous coverage is not there. ISROs Oceansat scatterometer data have been very useful in the case of the recent hurricane IRENE in the USA. The recent launching of MeghaTropiques may be of great help. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data have been widely used and we may look forward to the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) too. In India, ground-based Radar has contributed greatly to improved forecast of TCs over the past 40 years. We had only non-Doppler analogue radars in the last century but we could improve TC position determination, track extrapolation and mapping of rainfall distribution significantly. We learnt a great deal about cyclone structure and behaviour in well-developed as well as weak systems. We also developed the concept of Radius of Maximum Reflectivity and used it to provide inputs for storm surge forecasting. With the introduction of Doppler radars in the last 10 years we are able to get the wind field at close range and hopefully determine maximum winds in TCs close to the coast. IMD is expanding the Doppler radar network and is likely to induct polarimetric radars. We are organising networking of radars but more needs to be done. There are various processing techniques using radar data e.g. the Velocity Track Display. The assimilation of radar reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity in numerical models has been shown to improve TC intensity and structure analyses and forecasts significantly. A team at Florida State Unviersity has developed a rain rate initialization for numerical models that utilize radar resolution rains. We need to adopt all such techniques. Besides the expanded ground-based radar network of IMD the deployment of (fully) mobile radars during TC situations is highly desirable. Clear air ST radars/wind profilers located not far from the coast have a great potential in the matter of understanding of structure of landfalling cyclones. There are prospects of establishment of more profilers in the near future. None of these observational platforms can be viewed in isolation. The real time integration of ground-based, aircraft-based and satellite data into NWP models needs to be pursued keeping in view the importance of human judgment. Now several organisations have observational facilities as well as capability to run models. It is necessary that all concerned organisations collaborate effectively on a day-to-day basis and share their facilities, data and products. A note of caution is necessary. Despite the existence of all these facilities and more in the US there has been criticism that the forecast of intensity change has not been good in the case of Hurricane IRENE which hit the US east coast in August. This has implications for the continued support we can get from government for efforts such as BOBTEX to improve our understanding and forecast of tropical cyclones and for the creation of expensive facilities.
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Observations of Cyclones from Space-Based Platforms: Current Status and future Prospects R.C. Bhatia Retired ADGM, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. Capabilities of meteorological satellites to provide vital observations on Tropical Cyclones are well known since more than last four decades, Most important are the frequent pictures of earth cloud cover in the visible, infrared and water vapour channels obtained from Geostationary meteorological satellites together with the capability of generating a number of quantitative products from these data. R&D efforts of last several years at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Wisconsin have culminated into development of Advance Dvorak's technique (ADT) for automated analysis of Tropical Cyclones. This technique is currently operational for North Atlantic and Caribbean Oceans. It is also being used on Experimental basis in Satellite Division of IMD. Experience of last two years or so in IMD has shown that while conventional Dvorak Technique works well for cyclones over the Indian seas, current experience of using ADT over Indian seas does not permit its use on operational basis over our region. More studies are needed to understand the observed variations between results of ADT and conventional Dvorak Technique. R&D efforts of several years at UW-CIMSS have also resulted in the improvements of quantitative products derived from imagery data. These products have certainly improved the analysis of Tropical Cyclones and have provided useful information on predicting the future intensity/ movement of Tropical Cyclones. Quality of currently operational quantitative products derived from data of Indian satellites is limited by the coarser resolution of the imaging instruments in use at present on satellites of INSAT/ KALPANA series. With the availability of high quality of data from the new satellite of INSAT series ( INSAT-3D ) from next year (2012 ) there is a very good possibility of making further major improvements in the quality of derived products which will help in better analysis of Tropical Cyclones. Data obtained from the Microwave based instruments onboard current satellites of Polar orbiting series also complement the conventional observations based on visible, infrared and water vapour channels. Particularly, the warm core anomaly observed in the upper troposphere environment of the Tropical Cyclone is very useful as it is related to the Intensity of the cyclone. Recently launched Megha-Tropique satellite will provide this data which will improve cyclone analysis over Indian seas. Recently started 3 new METOPS receiving stations in India will also provide useful products based on microwave data over Indian regions.
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Early Detection of Global Tropical Cyclogenesis using OSCAT Data C. M. Kishtawal and Neeru Jaiswal Atmospheric Sciences Division, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Group Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad-380015, India Email: cmk307@rediffmail.com, neerujaiswal@gmail.com In the present work, a technique has been developed to predict the global tropical cyclogenesis. The technique is based on the premise that there is some similarity between the low level wind circulations of the systems that turn in to tropical cyclones at later stage. This similarity of wind patterns has been measured quantitatively by computing the matching index between the given wind pattern and the wind speed signatures of developing systems, available from past observations. For this purpose a database has been formed that contains the low level wind patterns of the early stages of the systems of that turn into tropical cyclones. The QuikScat derived wind data of the period 2000-09 have been used to form a database. The Indias polar orbiting satellite Oceansat-2 was launched by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) on 23rd September, 2009 for applications pertaining to ocean studies and meteorology. The OSCAT derived wind fields have been used to predict the genesis of tropical cyclone (TC) formed all over the globe during the year 2011. In the present work, the tropical cyclogenesis of ten cyclones formed in the year 2011 in the North Atlantic Ocean (viz., Arlene, Bret, Emily, Harvey, Irene, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate and Ophelia), ten cyclones formed in East Pacific and five cyclones formed in the West Pacific have been discussed. The mean prediction lead time of the technique was found as 70 hours. Keywords Cyclogenesis, OSCAT, QuikScat, tropical cyclone, scatterometer, vector block matching.
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Objective Detection of Center of Tropical Cyclone in Remotely Sensed Infrared Images Neeru Jaiswal, C. M. Kishtawal, P. K. Pal Atmospheric Sciences Division, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Group Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad-380015, India Email: neerujaiswal@gmail.com, cmk307@rediffmail.com, pradip@sac.isro.gov.in In the present work, an objective technique has been presented to fix the center position of TC in the satellite generated infrared images. The basis of the technique is to determine the point around which the fluxes of the gradient vectors of brightness temperature (BT) are converging. First, the variance of brightness temperature at each pixel from its neighboring pixels is computed and then the flux of the gradient of variance values is computed. Next, a line parallel to the gradient vector at each pixel is drawn across the image, and the locations where these lines intersect each other are stored in a density matrix. The score values accumulated in the density matrix are averaged and location with the highest score is identified. This indicates the location where many lines intercept that indicates a common point that the corresponding gradients are directed toward (or away from). This position is considered to be the probable center location of the cyclone. This location is further corrected by matching the BT distribution around a close neighborhood (11x11 pixel) to the 2D Gaussian distribution. The location where the best match is found is fixed as the center of tropical cyclone. The technique has been tested over the Kalpana Satellite generated (approximately 900) IR images of the cyclones that formed during the period 2009-10. The technique has been used in fully automated mode for the five cyclones viz., Phyan, ward, Laila, Phet, and Jal. The half hourly sequential IR images during the life period of each cyclone is analysed and the center position is determined. The track of cyclone obtained by the automatically determined center position is compared with the the observed track obtained from Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). Key words: tropical cyclones, cyclone center, geostationary satellite, Kalpana satellite, infrared image, gradient vectors, image variance, flux.
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Analysis of Tropical Cyclones by Using Microwave Imageries of other Polar Orbiting Satellites over Indian Region Suman Goyal and A. K. Sharma India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 Since 1982 after the launch of first Geostationary satellite by India, center and intensity of tropical cyclones is estimated in Sat. Met. Div. by using Visible & IR imageries and applying Dvoraks technique operationally which have proven to be invaluable in forecast applications. But now with the advance of satellite techniques and availability of microwave imageries operationally from satellites NOAA, DMSP, Metops, AQUA, TERRA etc. These imageries were utilized to analyse T.Cs, LAILA, PHET, GIRI and JAL by using the same technique. Eye appearance and accuracy in center determination of cyclone is found to be better in microwave imageries as compared to IR/Visible images of INSAT. Intercomparison of the intensity and center as measured by INSAT Visible / IR imageries was also done with other agencies like SSD NOAA, JTWC and CIMSS Wisconsin.
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Estimation of intensity of tropical cyclone over Bay of Bengal using Microwave imagery T. N. Jha, M. Mohapatra and B. K. Bandyopadhyay India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi -110003. E-mail: tilanand@yahoo.in Introduction: Genesis, intensification and movement of Tropical cyclone (TC) storms over north Indian ocean are mainly monitored by Infrared (IR) and visible cloud imageries as surface data over ocean are scanty. Dvoraks technique (1975) is used to determine genesis and intensity of TCs which is absolutely based on IR and visible cloud imageries taken by geostationary satellites. The technique is imprecise as high degree of skill is required to recognise cloud features and patterns as well as images are of low resolution. Further this technique has limitation at night due to unavailability of visible imageries. Forecasters essentially require maximum wind speed to issue disastrous warning likely to hit coastal areas. Microwave is powerful electromagnetic radiation for atmospheric sounding which is unaffected by clouds as well as transparent to dense cloud mass due to high weighting function of microwave frequencies in middle atmospheric region. With higher resolution microwave imageries abundantly available from polar orbiting satellites and are very useful to monitor genesis and intensity cyclones through measurement of brightness temperature from various layer of TC. However its application over north Indian ocean has been limited as it has been operationally applied since 2010 only . Therefore objective of this paper is to examine Advance Microwave Sensor Suite(AMSU) imageries particularly in frequencies range at 37, 85 and 91 GHz and to establish a relationship between brightness temperature and average wind speed over Bay of Bengal during cyclonic disturbances formed during Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) campaign of 2008 -10 . 2. Data and Methodology: The data of central location, central pressure , Maximum Sustained Wind (MSW) and Brightness temperature in respect of five cyclones formed over Bay of Bengal during FDP in 2008 - 2010 , viz., Rashmi, Khai muk , Nisha , Jal and Giri have been retrieved from website of U S Navy TC page (www.nrlmry.navy..mil/) which are observed by various polar satellites. Best track data have also been obtained from annual report published by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre(RSMC) New Delhi ,2009 and 2011. Parameters based on microwave imageries are interpolated every 6 hourly interval using central differencing scheme in order to match the data with best track .The MSW based on best track and microwave observations are compared and analysed . Similarly brightness temperature at centre of the disturbances has been extracted using the imageries to establish its relation with MSW. Out of the five TCs, three could attain the intensity of cyclonic storm ( Rashmi, Nisha, Khai muk) , one severe cyclonic storm ( JAL) and one very severe cyclonic storm ( Giri) . Details of classification of cyclones over Indian seas are given in cyclone manual published by I.M.D (2003). Cyclonic storm Khai muk and severe cyclonic storm Jal weakened into deep depression before land fall over south Andhra Pradesh coast near Kavali and north Tamil Nadu coast north of Chennai respectively .Very severe cyclonic storm Giri rapidly intensified over east central Bay of Bengal and crossed Myanmar coast near Sittewe. The mean surface wind speed in respect of the cyclonic disturbances ( category wise) corresponding to brightness temperature 230, 240, 250, 260 and 270 Kelvin has been analysed over Bay of Bengal . 3. Results and discussion: 37, 85 and 91 GHz frequencies based coordinates of system , wind speed and brightness temperature for each pass of satellites have been scrutinized and found that 37GHz brightness temperature imageries do not reflect location specific thermal structure distinctly . The location of centre based on microwave observations 85 and 91 GHz differs from that of best track by about 20
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Km (Table-1). The lowest mean track difference of 18 Km is found in respect of very severe cyclonic storm and highest 25 Km in respect of depression. Table-1. Mean location error of best track compared to Microwave ( in Km) Cyclonic disturbances Mean Error Depression 25 Cyclonic storm 22 Severe cyclonic storm 21 Very Severe Cyclonic storm 18 Table -2. Mean MSW (Knots) based on best track and Microwave products. Cyclonic disturbances Microwave based Best track Error(Microwave on MSW based MSW best track) Depression 35 27 8 Cyclonic storm 46 40 6 Severe cyclonic storm 67 56 11 Very Severe cyclonic Storm storm 116 88 28 Microwave observations generally overestimate MSW compared to best track wind in respect of all the five cases irrespective of degree of intensity of cyclonic disturbance and overestimation vary in the range 5 - 35 Knots . Table-2 shows MSW of depression, cyclonic storm, Severe cyclonic storm and Very Severe cyclonic storm as per best track. The lowest error of 8 Knots is found in case of depression and the highest of 28 knots in respect of very severe cyclonic storm. Brightness temperatures vary in the range of 230 270 Kelvin over Bay of Bengal. Fig .1 shows that MSW abruptly increases when central brightness temperature rises to 260-270 Kelvin at pressure level 250 hPa in order to enhance low level convection leading to intensification of depression/ cyclone into severe cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal.
Fig.1. Relation between the brightness temperature and maximum sustained wind speed of TCs
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4. Conclusions: Following salient of feature of cyclonic disturbances may be drawn from the study. The microwave imageries at the frequencies 85 and 91GHz are found to be useful for monitoring prediction of genesis and intensity of TC over Bay of Bengal. Mean difference in location of TC based on best track and microwave is found to be about 22 Km .It decreases with increase in intensity of system. Microwave overestimates MSW by about 11 28 knots in respect of severe and very severe TCs and 6- 8 knot only in case of depression and marginal TCs. Brightness temperature in the ranges 230 -250 Kelvin is favourable for genesis of TC over Bay of Bengal and 260- 270 Kelvin is favourable for intensification of TC into severe TC. The microwave based brightness temperature does provide lead time to predict intensification of TC into severe TC. References: Cecil, D. J and Zipser, E.J, 1999, Relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and satellite based indicators of inner core convection- 85GHz ice scattering signature and lightening ,Mon .Wea .Rev, 103 -123. Dvorak, V. F., 1975, Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery . Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 420-430. India Meteorological Department, 2003, Cyclone Manual, Kidder,S.Q. 1979, Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data. Technical No. 307. India Meteorological Department, 2009, RSMC annual report of 2008, India Meteorological Department, 2011, RSMC annual report of 2011,
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Making Complete Picture Radar Composite B. Arul Malar Kannan#, Suresh Chand,and S.K. Kundu India Meteorological Department Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003 #ba.kannan@imd.gov.in
IMD under its modernization has undertaken installation of state of art Doppler weather radars, these 12 numbers of S-Band Single Polarization radars and the 2 numbers of Dual polarization radars have high end signal processing receivers with a provision of modifying inclusive of the processing technique, spurious data filtering, smoothening etc. This customization during data collection enhances the data quality enabling for its immediate use with less further processing and quality control. The paper describes the unified IMD radar network conceived and used in creating specific products such as Radar Satellite overlay and an operational National Radar Composite achieved by India Meteorological Department in the recent years. The main points deliberated in the paper includes Networking concepts and the one in place at IMD Creating a common scan strategy between IMD radars With differing radar processing technologies, way to bring into a common platform. Conversion of radar data from individual proprietary format (Rainbow, BEL, IRIS) to a unified format for use in custom software in creating a composite. 5. Admissible tolerance time limit, elevation angels limit etc between referred radars. 6. Data sets at overlapping region, various techniques and the one being used 7. Choosing an appropriate map projection for the composite 8. Various useful composite products that can be used 9. Automated product generation and animation in real-time for end-users (WEB-update). 10. Integrating echoes on other regions not covered by Radar from INdian SATellite (INSAT) HDF5 Asia region data sets. 11. Necessity of a composite for cyclone analysis. 12. Future developments and plans. 1. 2. 3. 4.
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Study of Tropical Cyclone AILA using Doppler Weather Radar Data D. Pradhan Doppler Weather Radar, Kolkata A severe cyclonic storm (AILA) formed in the Bay of Bengal during 22-25 May 2009 and hit the southern coastal region of Kolkata at 0630 UTC. The system further moved northerly as severe cyclonic storm and crossed Kolkata on 25th May 2009 during 1000 -1300 UTC. Cyclonic storm moved slightly northwestwards and then towards north of Kolkata. Doppler weather radar installed at Kolkata monitored the movement of the cyclonic storm during 0000-1800 UTC of 25th May 2011 till it weakened as a depression and predicted the track at least 12 hours in advance. As estimated from velocity images (PPI_V & VVP_2) maximum wind speed associated with the cyclone was of the order of 75 knots (130 km/h) at an altitude of 0.9 km whereas the max wind at 0.3 km (almost surface wind) of the order of 60 knots at 0635 UTC. It was analyzed from the DWR reflectivity & velocity images that AILA was a wide core system with no eye formation having two spiral bands. The maximum vertical extent of the system as measured by DWR was 9 km (where radar reflectivity reduced to 20 dBz) and average speed of movement before the landfall was 22 km/h. Heavy rain occurred at Kolkata and surroundings since 0600 UTC till 1400 UTC of 25th May. Other features of this cyclone have been analyzed using DWR velocity data. This is also established that VVP_2 product is a very good indicator of the arrival/crossing of the system over the station. The study has been found very suitable for the researchers in understanding the structure of the cyclone.
Max_Z Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009

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PPI_V Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009
VVP-2 Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009
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STORM SURGE AND COASTAL INUNDATION S. K. Dube Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016 (skdube@cas.iitd.ac.in) Abstract: The destruction due to storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of the countries around the Bay of Bengal. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. More recently the Nargis cyclone of May 2008 killed about 140,000 people in Myanmar as well as caused enormous property damage. Thus, provision of precise prediction and warning of storm surges is of great interest in the region. The main objective of the present paper is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and also the future plan to enhance storm surge forecasting capability in the region. Introduction Storm surges are an extremely serious hazard along the east coast of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Although Sri Lanka is affected only occasionally by the storm surge, however tropical cyclones of November 1964, November 1978 and cyclone of November 1992 have caused extensive loss of life and property damage in the region. Storm surges affect Myanmar to a much less extent in comparison with Bangladesh and India. Notable storm surges, which have affected Myanmar, have been during May 1967, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1982, 1992, 1994, 2008 and 2010; of which the 1982, 1994, and 2008 (Nargis) caused the heaviest loss of life and damage. Nargis generated storm surge in excess of 4 m near Ayeyarwady deltaic region. The entire deltaic coast of Myanmar was flooded with surges ranging from 1.5 - 4.5m. A detailed review of the problem of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is given by Ali (1979), Rao (1982), Murty (1984), Murty et al. (1986), Gnnert et al. (2001), Dube et al. (1997) etc. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is not high compared to northwest Pacific, the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer most in terms of loss of life and property damage. The main factors contributing to disastrous surges in the head Bay of Bengal may be summarized as (Ali, 1979): (a) shallow coastal water, (b) convergence of the bay, (c) high astronomical tides, (d) thickly populated low-lying islands, (e) favorable cyclone track, and (f) innumerable number of inlets including world's largest river system (Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna). The purpose of the present paper is to give a review of recent developments in predicting the storm surges and associated coastal flooding in the Bay of Bengal. Operational storm surge predictions system for the Bay of Bengal In India, the study of numerical storm surge prediction was pioneered by Das (1972). Subsequently several workers attempted the prediction of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal (Ghosh, 1977; Johns and Ali, 1980; Johns et al., 1981). Dube et al. (1994), developed a real-time storm surge prediction system for the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. IIT model can be run in a few minutes on a PC in an operational office. One of the significant features of this storm surge predication system is its ability to investigate multiple forecast scenarios to be made in real time. This has an added advantage because the meteorological input needed for surge prediction can be periodically updated with the latest observations and forecast (data assimilation) from National Weather Services. Under the auspices of Tropical Cyclone Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) the technology (IIT Model) has been transferred to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the region. Present IIT model predicts only residual storm surge at the coast line (i.e., water level over and above normal astronomical tides). With the advantage of simplicity in operation, this model has been used to produce and disseminate timely warnings to serve public safety. From cyclone season of 2009, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) New Delhi is using IIT Model for providing storm surge
1.
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guidance to the countries of the region. 3. Validation of Models The reliability of IIT models have been tested using data from several severe cyclones, which struck the coastal regions of the countries in the Bay of Bengal during last 50 years. The following sections describe result of numerical experiments carried out to simulate the surges generated by 2008 Nargis cyclones. The model computed surges is in good agreement with the available observational estimates.
Pegu
Fig. 1: Simulated peak surge (m) for 2008 Nargis cyclone (Dube et al., 2009) Figure 1 depicts the Time history of the movement of Nargis and model computed surge contours along the coast of Myanmar. The Storm surge model is integrated with a pressure drop of 65 hPa and radius of maximum winds of 25 km obtained from India Meteorological Department. It may be seen that a maximum surge of 4.5 m is occurred close to the landfall point. The Deltaic region of Ayeyarwady is affected by surges between 2.5 - 4 m. The Myanmar coast from Pyapon to Yangon is flooded with a surge of more than 2m. The computed surge values at Pegu and Moulmein are 2.5 m and 1.5 m respectively. During this cyclone the surge of the order of 4 m was reported by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Yangon. This is in good agreement with our simulated sea level elevations. Future Plan to Enhance Storm Surge Forecasting Capabilities for North Indian Ocean While the storm surge prediction for India in particular, and for the North Indian Ocean region in general, is generally satisfactory, improvements are needed both in storm surge model as well as meso-scale NWP model to further enhance storm surge forecasting capability in the region. Keeping this in view IOC-UNESCO/JCOMM organized two Advisory Workshops (http://www.jcomm.info/SSindia) at Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, during 14-17 July 2009 and 11-15 February 2010, where the international experts on storm surges have worked with the regional modelling experts to review the current status/performance of an operational storm surge forecasting model (IIT-D Model) for the North Indian Ocean region and addressed requirements for upgrading and improving model performance. Workshops also discussed initiatives of the India Meteorological Department and other Indian national agencies to improve infrastructure required
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for improved prediction of cyclone and associated surges (IOC-UNESCO, 2009 and IOC-UNESCO, 2011). This is a line of activities following the recommendations made at the 1st JCOMM Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (2-6 October 2007, Seoul, Korea: http://www.surgesymposium.org). This activity is designed and conducted under the framework of the UNESCO project on Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems. REFERENCES Ali, A., 1979: Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal and some related problems, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Reading, England, 227 pp Das, P. K., 1972: A prediction model for storm surges in the Bay of Bengal, Nature 239: 211-213 Das, P. K., M. C. Sinha, and V. Balasubramanyam, 1974: Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 100:437-449 Dube, S. K., P. C. Sinha, A. D. Rao, and P. Chittibabu, 1994: A real time storm surge prediction system: An Application to east coast of India, Proc. Indian Natn. Sci. Acad. 60, 157-170 Dube, S. K., A. D. Rao, P. C. Sinha, T. S. Murty, and N. Bahulayan, 1997: Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea: The problem and its Prediction. Mausam 48:283-304 Dube, S. K., Indu Jain, A. D. Rao and T. S. Murty, 2009: Storm surge modeling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, Natural Hazards, 51, 3-27. Ghosh, S. K., 1977: Prediction of storm surges on the east coast of India. Ind. J. Meteo. Geophys, 28:157-168. Gnnert, G., S. K. Dube, T. Murty, and W. Siefert, 2001: Global storm surges: theory, observations and applications. Die Kueste 623 pp IOC-UNESCO, 2009: Advisory workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean storm surges, 14-17 July 2009, IOC Workshop Report no. 223, Paris, UNESCO, 37 pp. IOC-UNESCO, 2011: Advisory workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean storm surges, 11-15 February 2011, IOC Workshop Report no. 239, Paris, UNESCO, 41 pp. Johns, B., and A. Ali, 1980: The numerical modelling of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 106:1-8. Johns, B., S. K. Dube, U. C. Mohanty, and P. C. Sinha 1981: Numerical simulation of the surge generated by the 1977 Andhra Cyclone. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 107:915-934. Murty, T. S., 1984: Storm Surges: Meteorological Ocean Tides, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, Canada. Murty, T. S., and R. F. Henry, 1983: Tides in the Bay of Bengal. Journal of Geophysical Research 88(c-10):6069-6076. Murty, T. S., R. A. Flather, and R. F. Henry, 1986: The storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal. Prog. Oceanog. 16:195-233. Rao, A. D., 1982: Numerical storm surge prediction in India. Ph.D. thesis, IIT Delhi, New Delhi, 211 pp.
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Numerical modeling of Tide-Surge interaction in the Bay of Bengal

Jismy Poulose Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi 110016 (prithvi12@gmail.com) Bay of Bengal is one of the most vulnerable area of Indian Ocean to the storm surges which is associated with tropical cyclones. Shallow nature of Bay of Bengal and high tidal range are the major reasons for the inundation due to storm surge. Nature of tidal phase at the time of land crossing of cyclone is important to predict the total water level and inundation along the affected coastal area. Surge amplitude and arrival time of peak surge can be affected by the tide (Johns et al, 1985 and Sinha et al, 2008). The objective of the paper is to study the non- linear interaction of tide with the surge for cyclone GIRI using IIT-Delhi numerical storm surge model. Tidal solution generated using open boundary radiation condition is the initial condition for this vertically integrated shallow water model. Experiments are done to study the tide-surge interaction at the time of high tide and peak surge. Figure 1 shows that the surge height at the place of landfall varies according the tidal phase. A positive interaction occurred at the time of peak surge.
Fig. 1. Tide-surge interaction at the place of landfall during severe cyclone GIRI References: Johns, B., Rao, A. D., Dube, S. K. and Sinha, P. C. (1985) Numerical Modelling of tide-surge interaction in the Bay of Bengal. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A313, 507-535 Sinha P. C., Indu, J., Bhardwaj, N., Rao A. D., and Dube, S. K. (2008) Numerical modelling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India. Natural Haza
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Outlook of tide and Storm Induced Current Off Gopalpur Coast Susant Kumar Misra*, P. Chandramohan*, A. S. N Murty**, J. K. Panigrahi**, R. Mahadevan*, M. M. Mahanty*** and J. K. Sahu**** * INDOMER Coastal Hydraulics(P) Ltd, 63 Gandhi Road, Alwar Thirunagar, Chennai ** Department of Marine Sciences, Berhampur University, Berhampur 760 007 *** NIOT, Ministry of earth sciences, NIOT Campus, Chennai **** Costal Marine Construction & Engineering Limited, Mira Road (E), Maharashtra E-mail: susantkumisra@gmail.com
In the recent past, there has been increased involvement in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and International waters for exploration and exploitation of living and nonliving ocean resources. The coastal regions are vulnerable to seaborne events and have significant impact on the socio-economic condition of the coastal community. The increasing trend in investments towards myriad coastal infrastructure causes the situation alarming. The new CRZ notification of 2011 seems to be an imperative step of government of India in this context. Coastal Regulation Zone forms taking into consideration of the tidal line and is silent on the natural hazards and associated water level rise. In this context, the current study on tide and storm induced current supplements the knowledge on coastal water level at Gopalpur. This paper presents the analysis of the tide and storm induced current. Attempts were made to study the tide and storm induced current along the Gopalpur coastal region by using the MIKE 21 Hydrodynamic module of DHI Software. The study area experiences semi diurnal tide with an average spring and neap tidal range of about 1.0 m and 0.4 m respectively. The average spring tidal range is about 2.39 m and neap tidal range is 0.85 m (Chandramohan et al 1994; Mohanty et al 2010; Mishra et al 2011). While the simulated tide induced current magnitudes were observed to be around 0.213 m/s for all the periods of the constituents, the order of magnitude of M2 and S2 tidal constituents (0.099 m/s and 0.034 m/s) observed to be reducing. Similarly, the directions of tide induced currents during the flood and the ebb phases of tides were observed to remain almost same. The variation of measured current speeds lay between 0.02 and 0.40 m/s and the direction predominantly remained within the sector of South - West. For the Hydrodynamic module, the authors used the parameters of 1977 Andhra cyclone which were obtained from Cyclone e Atlas of IMD and Ghosh (1981). The present simulation shows that the storm induced currents are approximately 0.80 m/s. The present estimation of the height of storm surge also agrees well with the estimations of other authors (Subbaramaya et al 1979; Johns et al 1981; Ghosh 1981 and Murty 1984).
Keywords: Tide, Storm induced current, cyclone tracks & parameters, MIKE 21 Hydrodynamic module &, Toolbox, Gopalpur coast.
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Estimation of pressure drop within the tropical cyclone and height of associated storm surge using Doppler velocity data D.Pradhan1, Anasuya Mitra2 1. Doppler Weather Radar, India Meteorological Department, 13th floor New Secretariat Building, K.S. Roy Road, Kolkata-700001, mail:- pradhandev1960@gmail.com 2. Junior Research Fellow, India meteorological Department, Mausam Bhawan, New Delhi110003, mail: mitra.anasuya@gmail.com Strong winds and high storm surge are the critical factors associated to Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (India).The exact prediction of landfall location, time, wind velocity and expected storm surge may save thousands of human lives. The large pressure drop within the eye and the storm surge height are functions of maximum velocity in the eye wall region. These factors are basic indicators of severity of a cyclone. A study of five tropical cyclones during post-monsoon seasons in the Bay of Bengal (Fig 1 6) has been conducted using Doppler Weather radar radial velocity data to estimate the pressure drop in the eye of the cyclone and the height of storm surge. Existing empirical relation between maximum velocity and central pressure drop (Vmax=KP-Pc) has been modified in terms of radial velocity measured by the Doppler radar. At present the value of K=14.2 is being used in the above relation by IMD but a new value of K=13.637 has been found by the authors in this study. The storm surge height is also calculated for these cyclones using an empirical relation suggested by SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhacca (Bangladesh) and is found that the values are very close to the actual occurrence as reported by media and measured by meteorological agencies.
Fig.1. Severe Cyclone (Nov 12, 2002- 0700 UTC)
Fig. 2. OGNI (Oct 29, 2006- 0218 UTC)
The study concludes that apart from intensity of a cyclone in terms of eye diameter, radar reflectivity (precipitation contents and estimated rainfall) and wind speed, central pressure drop and storm surge height may also be estimated with a very high accuracy using radial velocity data from Doppler weather radar in the range of 250 km. So far no such study has been carried out in India for measurement of central pressure drop and storm surge height using DWR data in the Bay of Bengal coast, present study may be useful in getting estimates for central pressure drop, intensity of the cyclone and expected storm surge height and additionally may be used for the validation of the parameters derived from the satellite. The study may also be applied for the validation of the model output related to the prediction of track and landfall of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.
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Fig. 3. SIDR (Nov 15, 2007- 1140 UTC)
Fig.4.PCAPPI_V of SIDR at 2 km (15Nov 2007-1140 UTC)
Fig. 5--RASHMI (Oct 26, 2008 -0644 UTC)
Fig.6-- AILA (May 25, 2009-0644 UTC)
Key Words:-Tropical Cyclone, Storm Surge, Bay of Bengal, Central Pressure drop, Eye wall, Radial velocity, Doppler weather radar.
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Tropical Cyclones Wind Radii prediction over North Indian Ocean M. Mohapatra and Monica Sharma India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 E-Mail : mohapatraimd@gmail.com 1. Introduction: India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the nodal agency for Tropical Cyclones (TC) monitoring and prediction over the North Indian Ocean. The TC forecast issued by Cyclone Warning Division of IMD, New Delhi contains forecasts of TC wind field for 3 days in the interval of 12 hr period. This forecast is issued four times a day based on 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC observations. The Cyclone Warning Division of IMD introduced the monitoring and forecasting of TC wind radii during TC, Giri over the Bay of Bengal in October, 2010. The characteristic features of this forecast, the methodology adopted to generate the forecast and the limitations and future scope are presented and discussed herewith. 2. Characteristic features of TC wind radii monitoring and prediction: The TC wind radii forecasts are generated in terms of the radii of 34kts, 50kts and 64kts (1kt = 0.52 ms-1 or 1.85 kmph) winds in four geographical quadrants around the tropical cyclone (thereafter referred to individually as R34, R50 and R64 for 34kts, 50kts and 64kts wind thresholds respectively or collectively as wind radii in units of nautical miles (1nm=1.85km)). These wind radii represent the maximum radial extent of winds reaching 34kts, 50kts and 64kts in each quadrant. A theoretical description of the concept is shown in Fig.1. The wind radii forecasts are issued over the sea area only as per the requirement of the users. The thresholds of 34kts, 50kts and 64kts are chosen as the wind of 34kts corresponds to gale wind threshold, the threshold of 50kts wind is the requirement of mariners and the threshold of 64kts corresponds to wind with hurricane force.
Northwest Northeast
64 kt 50 kt 34 kt Southwest 28 kt Southeast
Fig.1. Radii of surface wind thresholds used by IMD for TC forecasting Methodology adopted for TC wind radii monitoring and prediction: The initial estimation and forecast of the wind radii of TC is rather subjective and strongly dependent on the data availability, climatology and analysis methods. The subjectivity and reliance on climatology is amplified in North Indian Ocean in the absence of aircraft observations. 3.
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However, recently with the advent of easily accessible remote sensing derived surface and near surface winds (e.g. Ocean Sat., Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI), low level atmospheric motion vectors and Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) retrival methods) and advances in real time data analysis capabilities, IMD introduced TC wind radii monitoring and prediction product in Oct.,2010. The initial wind radii estimates have become less subjective due to the tools and products mentioned above. An example of the wind radii forecast issued during TC, Giri (2023 October, 2010) is shown in Fig.2.
Fig.2. A typical graphical presentation of cyclone wind forecast during cyclone, GIRI While better initial estimates of R34, R50 and R64 are becoming available, forecasting these wind radii remains a difficult task. It is mainly because of the fact that we do not have any objective wind radii forecast methods and current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models fail to produce forecasts that are better than climatology (Knaff et al, 2006, Knabb et al, 2006). The road map followed for monitoring and forecasting of wind radii is given below. 3.1. Roadmap for wind radii monitoring and forecasting over north Indian ocean
(i) Date and time of initial condition (ii) Official location and Intensity (T/ C.I. No., maximum wind and centre position (iii) Initial TC wind radii a. Wind radii based on Oceansat wind b. SSMI based wind radii c. Wind radii based on lower level atmospheric motion vectors d. Wind radii by AMSU retrieval method e. Wind radii based on global and regional NWP model analyses f. Wind radii based on DWR wind retrieval g. Official TC wind radii based on S.N. (a-e). (iv) Forecast TC wind radii a. Official forecast of TC intensity and track upto 72 hrs.
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Persistence forecast based on initial wind radii and past 12 hrs trend. Climatology of TC corresponding to initial condition (i.e. with respect to location and intensity of TC) d. Climatological forecast of TC wind radii based on the climatological data base e. NWP Model forecasts of 10 metre wind radii Select the model most appropriate to initial condition Compose the wind field distribution to the actual wind Calculate the wind radii in four quadrants for the threshold of 34kts, 50kts and 64kts surface wind f. Official TC wind radii forecast in four quadrants for the threshold of 34kts, 50kts and 64kts based on S.N. (a-e) A few remotely sensed products for monitoring of TC wind radii are shown in Fig.3. 4. Limitations and future Scope: Wind radii forecasts are somewhat dependent on track and very sensitive to the initial vortex initialisation in NWP models and intensity forecasts. Over the past several years, there have been large improvements in track skill ( RSMC, New Delhi, 2011) and modest improvements in the intensity skill like other Ocean basins. However, it is still important to note that the intensity and track errors at 24 hrs (say) are still of the order of 15kts and 130 km (RSMC, New Delhi, 2011) respectively. These errors, particularly the intensity errors negatively affect wind radii forecasts. The poor intensity forecast is particularly pronounced when intensity forecast fail to or falsely forecast winds that exceed the 34kts, 50kts and 64kts thresholds. In the absence of a reliable NWP model, a common approach is to aid and assess the forecast products with a statistical model that employs a combination of persistence of the initial conditions and trends of initial conditions along with climatology. Hence, an attempt is being made to develop a climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model for TC wind radii forecast over the North Indian Ocean like those over north Atlantic and Pacific Ocean (Knaff et al, 2007). This will provide basic guidance which will be always available to the forecaster and serve as a reference forecast for verifying other techniques. 5. References: Knabb R., E. Rappaport, M. Mainelli, J. Franklin, C. Lauer and A. Krautkramer, cited 2006: Progress toward operational implementation of tropical cyclone wind probability products (http//www.ofcm.gov/ihc06/Presentations, knabb.ppt#492,31,Slide31) Knaff, C.P. Guard, J.P.Kossin, T.P. Marchok, T. Smith, and N.Surgi, 2006: Operational guidance and skill in forecasting tropical cyclone structure change. Workshop Topic Reports of the Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Meteorology Research Programme Rep. 72, 29 pp.(http://www.wmo.ch/web/arep/arep-home.html.) Knaff John A., Charles R. Sampson, Mark DeMaria, Timothy P. Marchok, James M Gross and Colin J. McAdie, 2007, Statistical tropical Cyclone wind radii prediction using Climatology and Persistence, weather and Forecasting, 22, 781-791 RSMC, New Delhi, 2011, Reports on Cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2010, published by IMD, New Delhi. b. c.
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(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Fig.3. Lower level atmospheric motion vectors and surface wind derived from atmosphericTMI, AMSRE and SSMI around 0000 UTC of 22 October 2010 in connection with cyclone, GIRI.
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Drop size distribution Characteristics of cyclone and convective precipitation observed over Semi-arid-zone in India S.Balaji Kumar, S.B.Surendra Prasad, U.V. Murali Krishan and K.Krishna Reddy Semi-arid-zonal Atmospheric Research Centre (SARC), Yogi Vemana University, Kadapa krishna.kkreddy@gmail.com; The tropical cyclones (TC) are destructive weather storms characterized by a large low pressure system originate over oceans and move to the coastal areas-bringing large scale destruction by violent winds and very heavy rainfall. The TCs formed over Bay of Bengal (BoB) mostly causes severe damage to the life and economy to coastal regions of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Kerala. Normally, the coastline districts of AP are affected by cyclones and floods, whereas during the passage of JAL cyclone, Rayalaseema a semi-aird-region (particularly Kadapa district), the western and northern parts of Andhra Pradesh also experienced heavy precipitation. For the present study the micro physical variation of the tropical cyclone, JAL during 4-7 Nov. 2010 in the BoB is carried out. To understand the effect of cyclone, we carried out an experiment using cyclonic and non-cyclonic precipitation influence a set of ground based instruments like Automatic Weather Station, Mini Boundary Layer Mast, Micro Rain Radar, laser based parsivel Disdrometer and also GPS satellite. JAL cyclonic storm is formed on 4th November 2010 at 12:30 IST at 90N and 88.900E with a wind speed of 35 kt. The storm gets intensified with 45 kt wind speed on 5th November at 00 IST and located at 9.300N and 88.600E. The same pattern continued on 00:30 IST and 06:30 IST. Further the storm moved towards 9.800N and 86.400E on 5th November at12:30 IST with a wind speed of 55 kt. On 6th November, the storm wind speed increased and named as cyclone-1 at 10.500N & 85.700E and also more or less same magnitude of wind pattern continued from 00:30 IST to 12:30 IST. After that, the wind speed decreased. On 7th November at 06:30 IST and 12:30 IST the JAL Cyclone wind speeds were 50 and 35 kt, respectively. On 8th November the JAL cyclone is declared as tropical depression with wind speed of 25 kt. Our observational analysis on characteristic variation of raindrop size distribution (RSD) shows distinctly different DSD variations during cyclonic and non-cyclonic precipitation. The increase of non cyclonic rain rates arises from the increases of both drop concentration and drop diameter while the increase of the rain rate in the cyclonic precipitation is mainly due to the increase of median and large drop concentration. In the cyclonic precipitation the maximum rain drop diameter does not exceeds 4 mm even at higher rain rate but for non cyclonic precipitation rain drop diameter exceeds 4 mm for higher rain rates. The higher rain rate with large diameter is due to the local convection and surrounding environmental atmospheric conditions, where as the cyclonic precipitation with less than 4 mm diameter observed at Kadapa is due to stratified moisture flow movement from BoB.
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Changes in Extreme Daily Rainfall associated with Cyclonic Disturbances over Andaman & Nicobar Islands in a Warming Climate Naresh Kumar, M. Mohapatra, A. K. Jaswal and B. P. Yadav India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 India Meteorological Department, Pune - 411 005 Email: naresh.nhac@gmail.com The studies related to the variation in extreme weather like heavy rainfall are very important as these events has major impacts on environment and cause considerable damage throughout the world each year. Manton et al. (2001) studied the trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and the south Pacific and found decline trend in the frequency of extreme rainfall at most of the places. Likely cause of extreme weather may be due to increased warming. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. 2007), the rate of increase of the global average surface temperature is 0.074C .018C over the past 100 yr (19062005). Extreme weather events are very much important to coastal areas also. According to Firing et al. (2004), Islands communities are perhaps at the most risk for climate change events. Andaman & Nicobar Islands is situated in tropical warm pool region and is a hazardous area influenced by tropical cyclone formation. The studies related to tropical warm pool regions are very limited. But there are few studies related to Pacific warm pool region. Kruk (2008) found decreasing trend in heavy rainfall events across Hawaiian Islands and Alaska. He attributed decrease in heavy events across Hawaiian Islands may be due to possible poleward shift in the observed Pacific storm track as found by Yin (2005). Therefore objective of this paper is to examine the frequency of heavy rainfall events (>64.5 mm in past 24 hours) over the region and its linkage with cyclonic disturbance (CDs) over the region. For this purpose, heavy rainfall data of all the observatories located in Andaman & Nicobar Islands for their common period between 1961-2000 has considered. The frequency of the CDs over Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also computed for the period 1961-2000 from IMD (2008). The average annual frequency of CDs affects Andaman & Nicobar Islands is 2 out of 9 CDs over the Bay of Bengal during 1961-2000. The monthly percentage of CDs for the period 1961- 2000 over Andaman & Nicobar Islands is shown in Figure 1.
Fig.1. Frequency of CDs over Andaman & Nicobar Islands There are two peaks in CDs frequency over the region; one is in month of May and another in month of November. These peaks over the region are mainly due to passes of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone crosses twice in a year (May and October-November). In heavy rainfall events, there is decreasing trend in annual as well as all seasonal basis over the
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region. In yearly basis, around 9% reduction in frequency of heavy rainfall from mean yearly rainfall based on 1961- 2000 data is found. In seasonal basis, there is around 35% reduction in frequency of pre-monsoon heavy events and 25% reduction in frequency of post-monsoon heavy events from their respective seasonal mean from 1961-2000. In CDs events, a significant (confidence level >95%) decreasing trend is found for yearly frequency between 1961-2000. In percentage wise, it is around 50% of its average annual CDs between 1961-2000. In season wise, there is around 40% reduction in pre-monsoon season and around 35% reduction in post-monsoon season from their respective seasonal mean from 19612000. This implies, this reduction in heavy events over Andaman & Nicobar Islands may be attributed to the strong negative trend in CDs over the area between 1961-2000. Similar trend in heavy events are also found in west Pacific warm pool region (Kruk, 2008). This also indicate the reduction in heavy events over the tropical warm pool region. References: Firing, Y. and M. A. Merrifield (2004), Extreme sea level events at Hawaii: influence of mesoscale eddies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24306 doi: 10.1029/2004GRL021539. IMD-Cyclone e-Atlas (2008) Tracks of cyclones and depressions in Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea 1891-2007. Kruk MC (2008). Evaluating the impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes for Hawaii and coastal Alaska. 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society. Manton, MJ, PM Della-Marta, MR Haylock, KJ Hennessy, N Nicholls, LE Chambers, DA Collins, G Daw, A Finet, D Gunawan, K Inape, H Isobe, TS Kestin, P Lefale, CH Leyu, T Lwin, L Maitrepierre, N Ouprasitwong, CM Page, J Pahalad, N Plummer, MJ Salinger, R Suppiah, VL Tran, B Trewin, I Tibig, and D, Yee (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1916-1998, Int. J. of Climatol, 21, 269-284. Yin JH (2005) A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.
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Monitoring Formation and Movement of the Depression of 16-23 June 2011 using DWR, Satellite Products and Synergy and Utility of Implimenting a Real time Nowcasting in IMD for filling the forecasting Gap Rajendra Kumar Jenamani Meteorological Watch Office, IMD, New ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor), IGI Airport, New Delhi-110037 E-MAIL-rjenamani1@yahoo.co.in/rjenamani@hotmail.com Various types of weather systems with different spatial and temporal scales are observed during the summer monsoon. These systems play very dominant role in the behaviour of monsoon circulation and accompanying rainfall over India. The weather systems observed during Indian summer monsoon can be basically divided into two parts; (i) synoptic disturbances of transient characteristics and (ii) semi-permanent systems of quasi-permanent characteristics. Synoptic weather systems during Indian summer monsoon consist of monsoon disturbances, off-shore trough/vortex along west coast of India, mid-tropospheric cyclones, cyclonic circulations and western disturbances. Amongest all the monsoonal weather systems, monsoon depressions are recognized as the main rainfall-producing synoptic weather systems over India. These are nothing but intese low-pressure areas at the surface with associated upper air cyclonic circulations. Normally, most of these are formed over the head Bay off Orissa-West Bengal coast and move in a westnorth-westerly direction along the monsoon trough. These disturbances produce cupious rainfall while moving through central India. In pre-eighties(Rao, 1976), importance had been given to the structure and associated rainfall distribution of monsoon depressions and its statistical studies, while most of the studies in recent years are related to its formation, mechanism and mathematical modeling(Jenamani 2001, Jenamani and Dash 2004 and see ref 4-11). Monsoon disturbances formed during June & September are associated with the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Four depressions formed during just ended monsoon season of 2011 as against the normal of 4-6 monsoon depressions per season (June - September). Out of these, two Depressions (that formed on 11th June over Arabian Sea & the other during 22nd -23rd, July over Land) had a short life span. The Depression formed during 16th -23rd, June intensified into a DD. Its subsequent west northwestward movement was responsible for the advance of the monsoon over the most parts of the country. The fourth Depression formed towards the end of the season (22nd 23rd, Sept.) weakened before moving towards northeast. In the present study, attempts has been made to document how well DWR and Satellite at real time has been able to detect the Formation and Movement of the Monsoon Depression formed during 16-23 June 2011 using DWR, Satellite Products and Synergy Analysis workstations in view of the system was having longer life period and moved along the monsoon trough zone, establishing the through and bringing the monsoon rain/onset to over major part of eastern, central and Northern parts of India. We have also used various real time forecast issued by NWFC for finding whether heavy/very heavy rainfall realized along its path were captured by 24 hours and 48 hours forecast updated at 6-hours to find their accuracies and inherent problems which limits such forecast accuracies.. Present analysis shows being the depression forming on the onset phase of monsoon there were quick organization and re-organization of intense convective cloud systems associated with this depression at various phases of its movement due to which convention forecast updated at 6-hours have been found to be have limited accuracies. During when depression was moving across West Bengal, DWR shows reflective in Max Z reaching as high as 54dbz on morning of 17 June when the system was near Kolkota. When, the system was monitored at 24X7, using various observing and analysis systems system such as DWRs 10-minute products, 30-minute Satellite data at real time, with 3-hourly analysis of various other data e.g. AWS, synop etc by Synergy, it shows such new technology based monitoring system now have attended full potential of implementing Operational Nowcasting in IMD which will fill the forecasting Gap arising because of inherent limitation of present forecast system to capture such high variability at 0-6 hour time scale and district-wise heavy rainfall warnings.
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References H.R.Hatwar, Rajendra Kumar Jenamani, S.R.Kalsi and S.K.Subramanian, 2005, Synoptic Weather Conditions during ARMEX, Mausam, 56, 7-18. Jenamani Rajendra Kumar and Dash, S. K., 2005, A Study on the Role of Synoptic and Semipermanent Features of Indian Summer Monsoon on its Rainfall Variations during Different Phases of El-Nino Mausam,, 56, 4, 825-840 Jenamani Rajendra Kumar, 2004, Distinct synoptic patterns associated with pre-break onset phase and revival of normal monsoon phase, Mausam, 55 , 591-598 Jenamani Rajendra Kumar, 2007, Does Break Monsoon always mean Subdued Rainfall over India? -An analysis of Role of Off-Shore Trough in this aspect, Mausam, 58, 572-579 Jenamani Rajendra Kumar, Dash, S. K. and V. Thapliyal, 2004. Decadal and epochal variation of frequency and duration of monsoon disturbances and their secular relationships with rainfall over India, Mausam., 55, 3, 397-408. Jenamani Rajendra Kumar, H. R. Hatwar, S.R.Kalsi and S.K.Subramanian, 2007, Another Deficient monsoon 2004-A comparison with drought year 2002 and possible causes, Mausam, 58, 161-176 Jenamani, R. K. and Bhan, S. C., 2008, Exceptional rainfall event of 26th July, 2005 over Mumbai- Radar Echoes and Rainfall, Mausam, 59, 3, 366-376 Jenamani, Rajendra Kumar, 2001, "Mathematical modelling of weather systems during Indian summer monsoon", Ph. D. Dissertation, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar. Rao, Y. P., 1976 "Southwest Monsoon Met. Monograph, India Meteorological Department, Synoptic Meteorology, No. 1 /1976. S. K. Dash, R. K. Jenamani and S. Sudhansu, 2004, Decreasing frequency of monsoon depressions over Indian region and associated parameters, Current Science, 86, 10, 14041411. S. R. Kalsi, R. K. Jenamani, H. R. Hatwar and, 2006, Meteorological features associated with severe drought 2002 Mausam, 57, 3, 459-474
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Forecasting of rainfall from landfalling cyclone using satellite derived rain rate data: A case Study for cyclone Aila Habibur Rahaman Biswas and P.K.Kundu* Regional Meteorological Centre, Kolkata *Jadavpur University, Kolkata Email: 786hrb@gmail.com An important major threat to life and property of east coast of India including West Bengal Coast is very heavy rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones originated over Bay of Bengal. Forecasting magnitude of rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclone is very difficult job. With the advent of weather satellites, no tropical cyclone anywhere over the globe goes undetected or evades the eyes of meteorologists. Satellite derived rain rates through cloud area of tropical cyclone can be used to forecast potential tropical cyclone rainfall accumulations. In the present study, estimation of 24 hours rainfall over Coastal stations before landfall of tropical Cyclone Aila has been analysed using tropical rainfall measuring mission(TRMM) satellite rain rates data and observed storm track of Aila. Magnitude of estimated rainfalls for the case of cyclone Aila nearly match with observed rainfall over coastal stations. Study explores the feasibility of forecast for 24 hours rainfall from landfalling cyclone over Bay Bengal using satellite estimate rain rate and storm forecast track.
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Unprecedented flood in river Mahanadi in Orissa in September, 2008 and its impact on economic development S.C.Sahu and S.K.Dastidar Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar scsahuimd@gmail.com State of Orissa is prone to Meteorological hazards such as heat wave, tropical cyclone and flood. Flood in every year cause damage to kharif crops mainly paddy besides loss of lives and properties. Northern part of Bay of Bengal is prone to cyclone genesis-that is sea surface temperature and other meteorological conditions are favourable for formation of low pressure and its intensification particularly during the monsoon season. The circulation pattern is such that they move in north-west or north-north-west or west-north-west direction . Orissa coast is directly under the track of these moving monsoon depressions or deep depressions. Out of seven low pressures formed over Bay of Bengal during monsoon period of 2008, three systems intensified into depression and one among them further intensified into deep depression on 16th September,2008. Deep depression on 16th Sept.2008 crossed Orissa coast near Chandbali causing heavy rainfall in catchment areas of Mahanadi. It caused massive flood surpassing earlier records of flood in 1834,1955 and 1982, 15.81 lakh cusec water were released on 20-9-2008 at Munduli near Cuttack. 19 districts are affected due to inundation of flood water by breaching of 477 embankments and 2895 road breaches. Due to this flood, 4,78,854 hectares of crop area damaged and 40,95,547 numbers of people are affected. Floods in last 30 years in Mahanadi river has been analysed and rainfall data of rain gauge stations in Mahanadi catchment are taken for calculation of area-depth relation for large storms. One day average rainfall on 17th September,2008 are recorded in districts of Jajpur (211.8 mm) , Bhadrak (201.4 mm) , Cuttack ( 136.7 mm) , Kendrapara (205.3 mm) , Bargarh (71.2 mm) , Puri (52.7 mm) , Khurda (63.1 mm) , Kalahandi (135.2 mm) , Bolangir ( 131.4 mm) , Sonepur ( 131.0 mm) , Kandhamal (177.0 mm) and Boudh ( 60.0 mm) . These districts are in the catchment areas of Mahanadi. To mitigate the suffering of people during flood , food droppings were made for more than a week in affected areas and on precautionary measure before occurrence of flood, 3,91,907 numbers of people were evacuated to safer places. After crossing the coast, the depression maintained its intensity over land for another 12 hours which caused heavy rainfall in interior districts of Orissa and also in Upper Mahanadi catchment areas in the state of Chattisgarh. Attempt has also been made to study the synoptic situation of the system for causing such copious rainfall. When deep depression moved to land, mainly development of cumulonimbus cloud and thundery shower occurred behind the trough line. Low level convergence behind the trough and divergence ahead of the trough are agreeing to equation for the conservation of potential vorticity. (f + )/ p = Where f= Coriolis parameter, = Relative vorticity ( cyclonic +ve) and p = Depth of air column Air overtaking trough line is moving both upwards ( f increasing ) and towards a zone of cyclonic curvature ( increasing), so p must increase to keep left hand side of equation remain constant. This vertical expansion of the air column necessitates horizontal contraction (convergence). Conversely, there is divergence in the air moving southward ahead of the trough and curving anticyclonically. Analysis of OLR and SST will also be done for occurrence of heavy rainfall for this deep depression.
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Deep Depression without Heavy Rainfall Bikram Singh, R.C. Vashisth, B.P. Yadav and Charan Singh India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 A depression formed over Bay of Bengal at 0000 UTC of 19th October 2011. It rapidly intensified into a deep depression at 0300 UTC of the same day and crossed Bangladesh-Myanmar coast south of Coxs Bazaar (Bangladesh) as deep depression by following north-easterly track with high speed of movement. The uniqueness of the system was that no heavy rainfall occurred and the movement was faster than the average while it was near the centre of the anti-cyclone. The main reason for fast movement seems to be the shearing influence due to southward shifting of Subtropical Westerly Jet (STWJ) and the dry cold environment was not conducive for heavy precipitation. The detail features, causes of fast movement and no heavy rainfall associated with the system are analysed and discussed in this paper.
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Lessons from IRENE S. Raghavan G1, Prathyeka Apts., New No 12, Old no. 7, 1st Trust Link St., Mandaiveli, Chennai- 600028 Email: raglaksh@gmail.com The long time dream of routine aircraft reconnaissance of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) affecting the Indian Coast appears close to realisation. This should enable better understanding of TCs and, more importantly, more effective warnings. Aircraft reconnaissance is taxing in terms of resources and needs to be fully exploited. The possibility of mounting an instruments package when required and releasing the aircraft for other uses at other times needs to be explored. Airborne Doppler Radar needs to be deployed as it is the device which has led to most of the knowledge of cyclone structure. Besides its recognised uses, radar can contribute inputs to storm surge forecasting. The real time integration of ground-based, aircraft-based and satellite data into NWP models needs to be pursued keeping in view the importance of human judgment. The reason for the present title is the context of the Hurricane IRENE in the US. Many comments have been made that the intensity forecast was not good and that the weakening close to the coast produced an anticlimax and perhaps over-warning. The criticism of over-warning does not seem justified. Intensity forecast is particularly difficult. The double eyewall feature seen on radar which is being commented upon is an indicator of a severe TC but not a reliable predictor of intensity change. The Oceansat scatterometer data have been very useful in the case of IRENE. The user is interested not in the phenomenon but its IMPACT. Operationally therefore it is important to put out warnings with graphics indicating the various possible scenarios and explaining the uncertainties, while keeping close liaison with disaster managers. This is being effectively done in the US where weather telecasters are qualified meteorologists. In India we often give a deterministic type of forecast and keep changing it in the light of observations without explaining the background to the public. While this may be justified scientifically it projects a poor image of the Meteorological Service with a loss of credibility. It may be better to give a probabilistic forecast explaining the uncertainties and taking recipients into confidence. It is also necessary to create greater awareness of the importance of pro-active preparedness among administrators and ensure more funding for that rather than just for relief measures after the event.
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NWP models applications in Tropical Cyclone Predictions over the Bay of Bengal U. C. Mohanty*, Krishna K Osuri and S. Pattanayak Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas 110016, New Delhi, India * ucmohanty@gmail.com In recent days, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the state-of-the-art mesoscale model, is used worldwide, both in research and operational environments, for the simulation of high impact extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (TCs), heavy rainfall events, and severe thunderstorms. In respect of TC prediction, a number of studies demonstrate high degree of performance of WRF modeling system over different global cyclone basins. In the present study, we provided a detailed evaluation of model performance of WRF model for the simulation of TCs over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). First, relative performance of widely well known Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model are evaluated which clearly indicate that the ARW model could provide better track and intensity prediction of BoB cyclones compared to that of the MM5. The improvement with ARW is not noticeable up to 48 hours and after that the improvement is significant (Figure 1). The mean track error is reduced to almost half with ARW model compared to that of the MM5 model. There is considerable improvement of about 8%, 5%, 5% and 73% in intensity prediction at 12, 24, 48 and 72 hour forecast respectively, over that of the MM5 model (Pattanayak and Mohanty, 2008). The performance of Hurricane WRF (HWRF) is also studied for one severe cyclone Mala and reveals that the improvement in intensity is significant compared to the improvement in track prediction. The track forecast error for the cyclone Mala varies from 180 to 300 km from 24 to 72 hour forecast (Pattanayak et al, 2011). The operational utility of the HWRF needs high computation requirements. However, a detailed evaluation of real time predictions of the ARW model for North Indian Ocean (NIO) cyclones is analyzed and can be found at Osuri et al. (2011a). Before going for real time prediction of BoB TCs, the ARW model is customized to the same domain by simulating number of cyclones with different physical parameterization schemes (Osuri et al., 2011d). The 12 TCs of the BoB during 20072010 are predicted in real time at different times and have a total of 71 forecast cases. The mean track forecast error from the ARW model varies from 170 km to 350 km for 24 to 72 hour forecast length. The mean landfall errors are in the range of 60 to 140 km in 24 to 72 hour prior to observed landfall time. From the systematic errors, it may be noted that, the ARW model has right side (eastward) bias and slower (southward) bias for all forecast intervals. A number of experiments are conducted to assess the impact of assimilation of different sources of data on initialization and forecast of the ARW model for the simulation of TCs over the BoB and Arabian Sea. The inclusion of QSCAT and SSMI satellite-derived winds, through a 3dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system into the ARW model initial condition, improves the initial position in 11 cases out of 13 by 34% (Osuri et al., 2011b). From Figure 3, the 24-, 48-, 72- and 96-hour mean track forecast improves by 28%, 15%, 41% and 47%, respectively, based on 13 cases (of Narigs with 5 cases, Gonu with 4 cases, Sidr with 2 cases, and KhaiMuk with 2 cases). The landfall prediction is significantly improved in 11 cases by about 37%. Further, the intensity prediction also improves by 1020%. Kinematic and thermodynamic structures of TCs are also better explained, as it could simulate heat and momentum exchange between sea surface and upper air. Due to better simulation of structure, intensity and track, the 24-hour accumulated rainfall intensity and distribution are also well predicted with the assimilation of satellite-derived winds (Osuri et al. 2011b). Further, the impact of Global Telecommunication system (GTS) data and the Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data on simulation of TCs are also examined. Assimilation of the DWR data significantly improves track and intensity. The mean radial wind error is reduced from 2.59 m s-1 (FNL analyses) to 1.67 m s-1 in the DWR analysis. The DWR experiments show better temporal
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evolution of intensity with better simulation of surface latent heat flux, relative vorticity at 850 hPa, and inner core structure of TCs. The improved upper-level divergence and steering flow helps for better track prediction in the DWR experiments with a large gain in skill, particularly at longer forecast intervals. Figure 4 indicates that the mean track errors (of all 16 cases) are less for the DWR experiment tracks and varies from 50 to 250 km from the 12 hr forecast to the 72 hour forecast. The track errors in case of GTS experiment ranges up to 400 km while in the CNTL, the errors are even higher and up to 500 km. The gain in skill of the DWR data ranges from 33% to 74% from the 12 to 72 hour forecast. Out of 16 cases, CNTL and GTS could predict the landfall in 8 and 10 cases, while, the DWR experiment succeeds in 14 cases with minimum errors. The landfall time errors are also reduced in the DWR experiments in most of the cases as compared to those of others. The mean landfall error of CNTL (8 cases), GTS (10 cases), and DWR (14 cases) is 78, 64, and 66 km respectively. Considering the same 8 cases as that of the CNTL experiment, the mean errors are 68 and 42 km for the GTS and DWR experiments, respectively. The modelsimulated reflectivity at landfall and the 24-hour accumulated rainfall are also well simulated in the DWR experiments as compared to CNTL and GTS experiments.
Figure 1: Mean track errors of TCs over the BoB from ARWWRF and MM5 model
Conclusions: In view of the above results, the following broad conclusions can be drawn: The WRF modeling system performs better in real-time predictions of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones compared to the MM5 system. HWRF model also provides better track and intensity prediction of TCs over the BoB. However, the model performance is significantly improved with data assimilation using additional high density remote sensing data such as satellite derived winds and DWR radial wind and reflectivity products. Therefore, the high resolution mesoscale models can provide a good guidance for the track, intensity and landfall prediction of the Bay of Bengal TCs to the operational forecasters. References: Krishna K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, A. Routray and M. Mohapatra, 2011a: Mean track errors of Landfalling tropical cyclones of 2007-09 over Indian seas as evident from WRF-ARW modeling system, Submitted to Atmospheric Research (Under review). Krishna K. Osuri, U.C. Mohanty, A. Routray and M. Mohapatra, 2011b: Impact of Satellite Derived Wind Data Assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1 26, DOI:10.1080/01431161.2011.596849.
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Krishna K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, D. Niyogi, A. Routray, and D. V. Bhaskar Rao, 2011c, Improved Prediction of Bay of Bengal Tropical cyclones through Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Observations, Submitted to JGR (Under review). Krishna K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, A. Routray, Makarand A. Kulkarni and M. Mohapatra, 2011d: Sensitivity of physical parameterization schemes of WRF model for the simulation of Indian seas tropical cyclones, Natural Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0 Pattanayak S, Mohanty UC (2008) A comparative study on performance of MM5 and WRF models in simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian seas. Current Science, 95(7):923936. Sujata Pattanayak, U. C. Mohanty, and S. G. Gopalakrishnan, 2011: Simulation of very severe cyclone Mala over Bay of Bengal with HWRF modeling system, Natural Hazards, vol. 52, DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9863-z.
Mean track forecast errors for BoB cyclones
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
ARW-WRF Persistence Gain in Skill (% ) 23 40
48
51
51
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Figure 2: Mean (of 71 cases) track errors of BoB cyclones from the real time predictions of ARW-WRF model. The gain in skill (%) of the model with respect to persistence track is also shown in line graph.
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Figure 3: Mean vector displacement errors (VDEs in km) in 12-hr interval for CNTL and 3DVAR experiments (a) Nargis (mean of 5 cases), (b) Gonu (mean of 4 cases), (c) Sidr (mean of 2 cases) and (d) KhaiMuk (mean of 2 cases). Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
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IMDs recent initiatives for improved Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast over Indian region using Hurricane WRF Model Y.V. Rama Rao1, T.S.V. Vijay Kumar2, Zhan Zhang2, K. Naga Ratna1, A.K. Das1, D.R. Pattanaik1, S.K. Roy Bhowmik1 and Ajit Tyagi1 1 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 2 Environmental Modelling Centre (EMC), NCEP, USA During the last 15 years, IMD running various numerical models for Tropical Cyclone track prediction such as Limited Area Model (LAM), Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) for operational numerical guidence. With the operationalisation of High Power Computing System (HPCS) for numerical modelling at IMD, New Delhi, IMD started high-resolution Global model (35 km horizontal resolution) for medium range and WRF model for short range track and intensity forecast. Recently under Indo-US joint collaborative program, IMD adapted HWRF model for Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast for North Indian Ocean (NIO) region for its operational requirements. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system for hurricane prediction (HWRFTM) is operational at National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA since 2007, providing deterministic forecast guidance to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Atlantic and North Eastern Pacific basins. This advanced hurricane prediction system was developed at Environmental Modelling Centre (EMC), NCEP to address the Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems. The HWRFTM is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution. This model is currently coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Atlantic basin. The HWRFTM has the capability to address hurricane structure and rainfall forecast problems in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts. Continued advancements in track and intensity prediction are important focus areas of this prediction system. The basic version of the model HWRFV (3.2+) which was operational at EMC, NCEP was ported on IMD IBM P-6/575 machine with nested domain of 27 km and 9 km horizontal resolution and 42 vertical levels with outer domain covering the area of 800x800 and inner domain 60x60 with centre of the system adjusted to the centre of the observed cyclonic storm. The outer domain covers most of the North Indian Ocean including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and the inner domain mainly covering the cyclonic vortex with moving along the movement of the system. The model has special features such as vortex initialization, coupled with Ocean model to take into account the changes in SST during the model integration, tracker and diagnostic software to provide the graphic and text information on track and intensity prediction for real-time operational requirement. As part of model validation, case studies were undertaken to test the ability of the model for Indian Seas for Very Severe Cyclonic Storm GIRI formed during 20-23 October 2010 and Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL formed during 4 to 7 November 2010 over the Bay of Bengal. The model was integrated for 5-days forecast with basic input from GFS spectral fields using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system. Also the six hourly cycling of the HWRF model was tested to run the model in cycling mode. In this run only the atmospheric model (HWRF) was tested. The Ocean Model (POM-TC) and Ocean coupler requires the customization of Ocean Model for Indian Seas. In this regards, IMD is expecting to work in collaboration with INCOIS, Hyderabad which is running the Ocean Models (POM)/Hybrid co-ordinate ocean model (HYCOM) to support in porting the Ocean Model with Indian Ocean climatology and real time data of SST over Indian Seas. The detailed model configuration and validation results along with the limitations and future plans will be discussed.
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Impact of cyclone bogusing and regional assimilation on tropical cyclone track and intensity predictions. Manjusha Chourasia, R. G. Ashrit, John P George National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry for Earth Sciences, A-50, Institutional Area, Phase-II Sector-62, NOIDA, U.P., Pin : 201 309 Email : manjusha@ncmrwf.gov.in An attempt is made to assess the impact of tropical cyclone bogusing in WRF assimilation and forecast system for cyclone track and intensity prediction in short range forecast. Three tropical cyclones formed in the year 2010 are chosen as study cases; namely 'LAILA' (Bay of Bengal), 'GIRI' (Bay of Bengal) and 'PHET' (Arabian Sea),.The operational NCMRWF T382L64 analysis and forecasts are used to provide initial conditions for WRF model. The WRF model is integrated upto 72 hr for producing the cyclone track and intensity forecast. In the tropical cyclone bogusing scheme used in this study, the existing cyclone vortex in the initial condition is removed, and an artificial cyclone vortex is ingested at observed location by supplying observed data of tropical cyclone centre along with intensity and radius of maximum wind. Four sets of model experiments were carried out: (1) The control experiment (CNTL); Cold start run with interpolated global T382L64 model analysis initial condition without performing any bogusing or assimilation. (2) The assimilation experiment (VAR); Initial condition is prepared by regional assimilation system (WRF 3DVAR) without cyclone bogusing.(3) The cyclone bogusing experiment (BOG); Model is run with T382L64 global model interpolated output initialized with bogusing without assimilation. (4) In the forth experiment,(BOGVAR); the initial condition of the model is prepared with both cyclone bogusing followed with WRF data assimilation . The impact is demonstrated in terms of track error, central pressure, maximum sustained wind speed etc. Results indicate a remarkable impact of cyclone bogusing on the initial condition. All three cyclones can be located in the initial conditions (00 Z) of bogus (BOG and BOGVAR) experiments which were otherwise absent in no-bogus (VAR and CNTL) experiments. The track prediction is considerably improved in terms of direction of movement as well as cyclone location and is close to observations in the BOGVAR experiments.
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 Forecast time, hr
LAILA BOGVAR VAR
Fig.1. Tropical Cyclone 'LAILA' comparison of track errors for 'BOGVAR' and 'VAR' experiments Results with bogus followed by assimilation has given significant reductions in track errors. Figure 1. Shows comparison between BOGVAR and VAR experiments track errors during forecast hours for tropical cyclone 'LAILA'. Here it is evident that bogusing (BOGVAR) has improved track predictions by reducing track errors. The maximum reduction in track error is 76.81 % in 'LAILA', 87.30 % in 'GIRI' and 51.55 % in 'PHET' respectively in BOGVAR experiment in comparison to VAR experiment. Maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure are more close to observations in BOGVAR in comparison to VAR for tropical cyclones 'LAILA' and 'GIRI'. Whereas in case of 'PHET' the trend in pressure drop and increase in wind speed did not show significant improvement.
Track error, km
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Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones in Bay of Bengal R. D. Kanase and P. S. Salvekar Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India k_radhika@tropmet.res.in and pss@tropmet.res.in In last decade total 29 cyclones were formed in BoB, 9 in pre-monsoon and 20 in post monsoon. Out of which 7 cyclones were VSCS and 6 cyclones were SCS. It is desirable to have accurate prediction of the track & landfall for effective implementation of the disaster management. For this purpose meso-scale numerical models based on well defined dynamical and physical processes can be used. In this study, simulation of four cases of sever cyclonic storms [Laila (17-21 May 2010), Aila(23-26 May 2009), Jal (4-8 Nov. 2010) and SCS (11-16 Dec. 2003)]is carried out using Mesoscale Model WRF(Skamarock et.al. 2005-WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note) and NCEP FNL reanalysis data with the combination of Cumulus scheme-BMJ, Planetary Boundary Layer scheme-YSU and Microphysics scheme such as WSM-6 class microphysics. Three two way interactive nested domains [60km, 20km and 6.6km ] and observed low pressure as the initial state, model integration is performed to evaluate prediction of track and intensity in terms of Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP) & Maximum surface wind speed (MSW) of the storm. The errors in track prediction are calculated in terms of vector displacement errors compared to the observed (IMD) track of the storms. Results 1. Pre-monsoon cyclones: Laila (17-21 May 2010) - A depression formed on 17th May in BoB, moving in the northwest direction, intensified into a SCS at 09:19-05-2010, crossed AP Coast near Bapatla between 11001200 UTC of 20th May 2010.Track of Laila cyclone is well simulated by WRF model (fig.1a) with minimum/maximum track error is about 40km/160km (fig.1b). Aila (23-26 May 2009) - A depression formed over BoB on 23rd May 2009 moved in northward direction, intensified into a SCS at 06:25-05-2009. It crossed West Bengal coast close to east of Sagar Island between 0800 &0900UTC of 25th May 2009. Track & intensity of Aila are very well simulated. The track error ranges from 12 to 84 km (fig. 2a, 2b) upto 72 hrs of integration and thereafter continuously increases. 2. Post-monsoon cyclones: Jal (4-8Nov. 2010)- A depression formed over BOB on 00UTC of 4th Nov. 2010, moved in north-west direction and intensified into SCS at 21:05-11-2010. It crossed north Tamilnadu & south AP coast close to north Chennai around 16:07-11-2010. Initially upto 42hrs of integration, the track error is around 30km, then it is upto 200km, till 96hrs.(fig. 3a1-3b). SCS (11-16Dec. 2003) - A depression is formed over the southeast BoB on 12:11-12-2003, moved in north-west direction and intensified into SCS at 12:14-12-2003 and crossed the coast near Machilipatnam around mid-night on 15-12-2003. Upto 75hrs of integration the track error is within 100km and afterwards it increases continuously (fig.3a2-3b).
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Conclusions These results clearly demonstrate that the WRF with model configuration CPs-BMJ, PBLsYSU, MPs-WSM6 is suitable for track prediction of severe cyclonic storms. Intensity of Aila is very well simulated as compared with IMD whereas for other three cyclones intensity is over estimated.
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Laila Aila
Jal
CSLP(hP 986 968 988 I a) M MSW 29 31 31 29 D (m/s) CSLP(hP 972 962 978 976 W a) R MSW 45 36 46 44 F (m/s) Table: Intensity of cyclones
SCS03 990
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Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and its application over the North Indian Sea S. D. Kotal and S. K. Bhattacharya NWP Division, India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 E-mail: sdkotal.imd@gmail.com An analysis of tropical cyclone genesis potential parameter (GPP) for the North Indian Sea is carried out. The genesis potential parameter developed by Kotal et al. (2009) is computed based on the product of four variables, namely: vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the inverse of vertical wind shear at all grid points over the area. The GPP at a grid point is considered under the conditions that all the variables vorticity, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the vertical wind shear are greater than zero and it is taken as zero when any one of these variables is less or equal to zero. The variables are computed using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data. Forecast of the genesis parameter up to seven days is also generated on real time using the ECMWF model output. Higher value of the GPP over a region indicates higher potential of genesis over the region. Region with GPP value equal or greater than 30 is found to be high potential zone for cyclogenesis. The analysis of the parameter and its effectiveness during cyclonic disturbances in 2010 affirm its usefulness as a predictive signal (4-5 days in advance) for cyclogenesis over the north Indian Sea. Key Words: Tropical cyclone, Genesis potential parameter, Vorticity, Moisture variable, instability and vertical wind shear.
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Track Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones using ARW model Krishna K. Osuri1*, U. C. Mohanty1, A. Routray2 and M. Mohapatra3 1 C A S, I I T, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016 2 NCMRWF, Noida-201307 3 India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi. * osurikishore@gmail.com A detailed evaluation of performance and systematic bias of Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model in predicting the movement of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) is undertaken in the present study. There were 16 TCs formed over the NIO during 20072010. These TCs are initialized at different times and have a total of 97 cases. Based on location of genesis, the TCs have been divided into the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclones. The BoB TCs have been further, divided into recurving, northward moving, and westward moving TCs. In addition to usual forecast errors, systematic bias in zonal and meridional direction, cross-track (CT) and along-track (AT) error components relative to persistence track are also calculated to analyze the gain in skill of model forecast. The overall skill of ARW model increases with forecast length in track prediction compared to persistence track. The mean track error varies from 130 km to 350 km from 12 to 72 hour forecast and the mean landfall position errors are 120, 90 and 52 km for 72, 48 and 24 hour forecast for the NIO cyclone. The mean time errors (standard deviation) are -7 (15), -3 (13) and -5 (6) hours for 72, 48 and 24 hour forecast. The mean initial vortex position errors are 78, 71, 68 and 88 km for northeast/east recurving, northward moving, westward moving systems of the BoB and AS systems respectively. ARW model exhibits negative skill for short-term (12 hour) forecast for all categories of systems. The model has a tendency to over-predict east-ward movement of the TCs over the NIO. ARW forecasts are in general slower as compared to actual speed of the systems and hence behind to the observed position for all the forecast lengths. As a result, model yields delayed landfall. Further, as the mean CT errors are less compared to AT errors i.e., ARW model errors are elliptical in nature with its major axis along the track. As the CT error components are smaller, the landfall position error is comparatively smaller. Further analysis indicates that the model shows better performance for post-monsoon cyclones. The track prediction of severe cyclones is better as compared to weak cyclones over the NIO. Key words: North Indian Ocean, Landfalling tropical cyclones, Track errors, ARW model
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On the Implementation and the ability of the Ensemble Prediction System for tropical cyclone track and strike probability for North Indian Ocean K. Naga Ratna India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi -110 003. Email: knratna@gmail.com Implementation of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) over North Indian Ocean and the ability to predict the probability that a tropical cyclone will fall within a certain area is evaluated. The software provided by the TIGGE, has been generalised and implemented for North Indian Ocean (NIO) to produce Ensemble and Deterministic forecasts for the tropical cyclones and also Strike Probability along the Indian coast and neighbouring countries. Ensemble forecasts issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Met Office (UKMET) were evaluated for the cyclones JAL, LAILA, PHET and GIRI that formed during 2010, over North Indian Ocean. The ECMWF model with horizontal resolution of 45km and vertical resolution of 62 levels produces forecast data twice a day for 50 member ensembles; while the UKMO model having horizontal resolution of 90km and 38 vertical levels has data frequency 2 times a day for 24 member ensembles; NCEP model discretized with resolution of approximately 90km in horizontal and 28 levels in vertical sends data four times daily for 20 members are available. In the North Indian Ocean, the ensemble mean of ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and ECMWF+UKMO+NCEP (ALL) tracks and intensity are comparable in skill. It is revealed that the strike probability circles of the ECMWF ensemble could capture the best track with a skill of 70% for 24-48 hours forecasts and were over dispersive beyond 48hours. UKMET ensemble yielded improvements in the short range. NCEP ensemble forecasts revealed that the tracks forecasts are better in the short range, the tracks are found to be deviated more after 48 hours. Further evaluations were done for the track forecasts and intensity forecasts for all the three model ensembles. The ability has been evaluated interms of track and intensity for the ensemble means of the three models and for all 10 member, 20 member and 30 member means. The evaluation the EPS thus done will be presented.
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Ocean Atmospheric Coupled Model to Estimate Energy and Path of Cyclone near the Coast Ramkrishna Datta Regional Meteorological Centre, Alipore, Kolkata E-mail: ramkrishna_datta@rediffmail.com The tropical atmospheric phenomena like Cyclone, Typhoon, Hurricane etc. cause a violent massive disturbance . The EYE region of such phenomena can be regarded on the basis of abstract idea of fluid dynamics . The said EYE can be imagined as the combination of fluid dynamical sourceof strength +m and fluid dynamical sink of strength m at a small distance apart. . So the EYE can be assumed to constitute a fluid dynamical two dimensional doublet of finite strength . This is here the object doublet. Now the seashore can be regarded as the real line x in the two dimensional complex plane where as y is the imaginary axis lying on the sea perpendicular to x . It is assumed that there are no flows of fluid across the real line x (seashore ). Then the said object doublet can be placed on the sea at a perpendicular distance a from the real line x in the complex plain (z=x+iy) making an angle 180 degree with the real axis x. Therefore the image doublet will be at just opposite side of the real line x . +m -m
a Y-axis U
Seashore as the axis of X
+m
-m
Here the fluid can be regarded as non viscous, incompressible fluid and it is moving with certain velocity U at infinity in the direction of x axis. The motion of the fluid is wholly two dimensional in the complex plane z . Now the complex potential w on the whole system which consists of object doublet, image doublet and the stream velocity U parallel to x axis is given by w= or = q = + U+ - Uz (1) (2)
To determine the pressure at any point on the wall we use the Bernoullis equation + q = C (constant) (3) We get
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= = using P = , q = U when z = (2 (a-x) + U(a+x) ) (4)
For any point on the sea shore z = x
=0 gives x=0 , a3 We see that When x= a3 >0 if > 4aU And <0 if < 4aU (5) (6)
Equations (5)and (6) describe analytically the strength of the tropical systems. If > 4aU . Pressure minimum at x= a3 on the sea shore. Such system coupled with sea shore minima strike the shore vigorously. This explain Orissa super cyclone 1999. If < 4aU we get sea shore maximum at x= a3 . Such system coupled with zonal stream moves towards right in the Bay of Bengal and gulf of Mexico. Eventually which explain analytically that the cyclones of the Bay of Bengal are stronger than that of at Atlantic ocean. The same observation had been written by Sir John Eliot, the first director general of observatory of India Meteorological Department in 1889. Key words :- Fluid dynamical Source, Sink, Object doublet, image doublet and complex potential.
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Track, Intensity and few Dynamical Aspects of Aila as Simulated by Operational NWP Model of the IAF Wg Cdr TP Srivastava1 and Wg Cdr Anil Devrani2 Met Faculty, Air Force Administrative College, Red Fields, Coimbatore. 2 Air Force Centre For Numerical Weather Prediction, Subroto Park, New Delhi. tarendrasrivastava@gmail.com
1
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Introduction Operational NWP Model of the IAF uses ARW core of WRF (Version 3.1.1) in a two way nested configuration at resolutions of 18 and 6 km as per the domains and schemes shown in Fig.1. Initial and boundary conditions of 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC from NCEP GFS are used for model integration of 75 hours. The products of these two operational runs are made available to the field forecasters daily by 1600h and 0400h. 2. History of AILA Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation, a low pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal on 22nd May morning. It subsequently concentrated into a depression and lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 23 May 09 near 16.5 N/88.0 E about 600 km south of Sagar Island. The depression moved northwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 24 May 09 near 18.0N/ 88.5E. It further intensified into a cyclonic storm AILA at 1730 hours IST of 24th May and lay centred near 18.5N/ 88.5E. It continued to move northwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm at 1130 hours IST of 25 May 09 and lay centred over northwest Bay of Bengal near 21.5N / 88.0E close to Sagar Island. The system crossed West Bengal coast close to the east of Sagar Island between 1330 to 1430 hours IST as a severe cyclonic storm with wind speed of 100 to 110 kmph. The lowest estimated central pressure was about 967 hPa at the time of landfall. After the landfall, the system continued to move in a northerly direction, gradually weakened into a cyclonic storm and lay centred at 2030 hours IST of 25 May 09 over Gangetic West Bengal, close to Kolkata. It continued its northerly movement, weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 26 May 09 over SubHimalayan west Bengal & Sikkim, close to Malda. It weakened into a depression and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of 26 May 09 over the same region close to Bagdogra. By 1430 hours IST of 26 May 09, it weakened further and was seen as a well marked low pressure area over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and became less marked by 27 May 09. Prediction by IAF Model To understand the efficacy of the IAF model towards enhancing advance warning of the impending adverse weather, track, intensity, few dynamical products, 3 hourly rainfall pattern and composite radar reflectivity generated in the finer nested domain of 6km by using the 0000UTC initial conditions of 23 May 09 (D-2) and 24 May 09 (D-1), valid for the period from 24 May 09 / 0600 UTC to 26 May 09 / 0600 UTC, have been discussed in the study. (a) Predicted Track and Intensity of AILA. Formation and intensification of the system was captured reasonably well on D-2. As shown in the Fig.2 (a&b), a general northerly track was predicted by the initial conditions of D-2 and D-1. Deviations in prediction from the observed track were more from the initial conditions of D-2 than that of D-1. Landfall was predicted 187km East at three hours later in comparison to the actual location and time on D-2. D-1 had relatively better prediction as the error reduced to nil though the landfall time was three hours early. The isobaric patterns confirmed well with the actual pattern throughout the predicted period but the forecast values of central pressure were 18 20 hPa higher, more so when the system intensified into a severe cyclonic storm.
3.
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(b) Vorticity at 850 hPa and Divergence at 200 hPa. After the onset of South West Monsoon over Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal by 20th May 2009, increase in the southerly surge resulted in increase in relative vorticity over the South East Bay of Bengal. It led to the formation of a low pressure area over the region on 22 May 09. Due to presence of high magnitude of the low level relative vorticity that was commensurate with the values of upper level divergence around the centre of the system, intensification of the system continued. By 1730 hours IST of 24th May it intensified into a cyclonic storm AILA and lay centred at 18.50oN / 88.50oE. Juxtaposition of higher values of low level convergence and upper level divergence maintained the strength of the system before it started weakening after 0000 UTC of 26 May 09. The predictions of Vorticity at 850 hPa and Divergence at 200 hPa on D-2 were relatively lower as the model did not intensify the system into a severe cyclonic storm and it weakened the system into a deep depression much before the predicted land fall. However, these values were more realistically predicted by the model on D-1. (c) Vertical Velocity at 500 hPa. Low level convergence if overlaid by upper level divergence will lead to higher positive values of upward vertical velocity at the level of no-divergence (LND). Over the Indian region 500hPa is the representative of the LND. Higher positive values of the vertical velocity at 500hPa predicted by the model, match well with the convective cloud patterns as shown by the imageries of Kalpana-I, of similar times. (d) Moisture Convergence at 850 hPa. Moisture advection is horizontal transport of moisture, which plays a very important role in the development of precipitation. If little moisture is available, it is unlikely that precipitation will occur. However, if any system is supplied with an abundance of moisture, there is an increased likelihood that heavy precipitation will be realized. The maximum moisture convergence as predicted on D-2 and D-1 match well with the areas of precipitation. Three hourly rainfall patterns as shown by the TRMM 3B42 V6 match well with the areas of high magnitude of moisture convergence. This rich moisture supply was enough for showers and thunderstorms to develop as indicated by the radar echoes of Kolkata DWR of similar times. It is to be noted that the precipitation was located in the region where the strongest moisture convergence was predicted. (e) Total Cloud Cover. This product is still in experimental mode. Modifications have been done for the display of predicted clouds by suppressing or enhancing the values of low, medium and high clouds to get the best possible realistic picture by comparing it with the Kalpana I image of the same time, in the hind cast mode. To make the product more meaningful 6 hourly predicted rainfall patterns has been superimposed over the predicted total cloud cover. In the case discussed here, this product matched well with the corresponding actual Kalpana-I IR images of the similar times. Vertical Velocity at 500hPa, Moisture Convergence at 850hPa, Total Cloud Cover with 6hourly precipitation predicted for 25 May 09 / 0600 UTC along with IR imagery of Kalpana-I and 6 hourly rainfall given by TRMM 3B46 V6 valid for 25 May 09 / 0600UTC are shown in Fig. 3(ah). (f) Hourly Rainfall Pattern. TRMM 3B42V6 products were used for qualitative validation of the model predicted rainfall. The three hourly pattern of rainfall predicted by the model on D-2 and D-1 matched reasonably well with the satellite derived rainfall patterns shown by TRMM product. The model over-predicted the rainfall to a certain degree in comparison to the rainfall shown by TRMM 3B42V6. A snapshot of comparison of 3 hourly rainfall at 0600UTC on 25 May 09 are shown in Fig. 4(a-c) (g) Maximum Radar Reflectivity. Maximum Radar Reflectivity was also simulated reasonably well. The predicted patterns of D-2 and D-1 matched well with the actual Maximum Reflectivity shown by the DWR of Kolkata. Comparison of this product was done both with
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and without cumulus parameterisation scheme in the nested domain of 6km. It was seen that the patterns produced without employing cumulus parameterisation scheme were more realistic. The same is shown for 0600 UTC on 25 May 09 in Fig. 5(a-e). 4. Conclusion Predictions pertaining to track, intensity and rainfall etc. of AILA from the finer domain of 6 km of the Operational NWP Model of the IAF had provided sufficient warning time to the users in the affected areas. The forecasts of D-1 were relatively better and more realistic in comparison to the one generated on D-2, with advance warning of more than 20hours and 40hours for its landfall, respectively. As demonstrated by the model generated patterns of maximum radar reflectivity, cumulus parameterisation in the finer domain of 6km can be avoided to improve the forecast and economise the computational cost.
Fig.1:IAF Model : WRF Version 3.1.1 (ARW) Resolution : 18 Km, 6 Km (Double Nested) Physics Options : Thompson, Thompson Cumulus Schemes : Grell, Grell PBL : MYJ TKE, YSU
Fig.2(a): Track & Intensity : Initial Condition of 23 May 09/0000UTC
Fig2(b): Track & Intensity : Initial Condition of 24 May 09/0000UTC
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PREDICTIONS BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS OF 23 MAY 09 / 00Z
Fig.3(a):Vertical Fig.3(b):Moisture Fig.3(c):Total Cloud Fig.3(d): TRMM 3B42V6 Velocity at 500hPa Convergence at 850 hPa Cover & 6hrly Pptn 6h Rainfall for valid for 25 May valid for 25 May 09 / valid for 25 May 09 / 0600Z / 25May09 09 / 0600UTC: 0600UTC: 0600UTC: PREDICTIONS BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS OF 24 MAY 09 / 00Z
Fig.3(e):Vertical Velocity at 500hPa valid for 25 May 09 / 0600UTC:
IR Fig.3(f):Moisture Fig.3(g):Total Cloud Fig.3(h):Kalpana-I, Convergence at 850 hPa Cover & 6hrly Pptn Image valid at 25 May 09 / valid for 25 May 09 / valid for 25 May 09 / 0600UTC: 0600UTC: 0600UTC:
Fig.4(a): TRMM 3B42V6 3h Rainfall for 0600Z / 25May09
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Fig.4(b): Model Predicted 3h Rainfall 0600Z / 25May09 IC:23May09 / 0000UTC
Fig.4(c): Model Predicted 3h Rainfall 0600Z / 25May09 IC:24May09 / 0000UTC
Fig.5(b): Model Predicted Fig.5(c): Model Predicted Fig.5(a): Max Reflectivity by Kolkata Max Reflectivity 0600Z / Max Reflectivity 0600Z / DWR at 25May09 25May09 0614Z / 25May09 IC:23May09 / 0000UTC (with IC:24May09 / 0000UTC CP) (with CP)
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Fig.5(d): Model Predicted Max Reflectivity 0600Z / 25May09 IC:23May09 / 0000UTC (without CP)
Fig.5(e): Model Predicted Max Reflectivity 0600Z / 25May09 IC:24May09 / 0000UTC (without CP)
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Analysis of Barotrophic Energetics of Tropical Cyclone Khai-muk S.Balachandran India Meteorological Department Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai email ID: balaimd@gmail.com
Tropical cyclones (TC) are intense atmospheric vortices characterized by extreme winds, torrential rain, and destructive storm surges. When a major hurricane makes landfall one or more of these processes can cause immense property damage and loss of life. Considerable progress has been made in recent decades unlocking the physical and dynamical mechanisms by which hurricanes form, and by which they change their structure and intensity. Climatologically, about 80% of all the tropical cyclones on the globe form near or within the ITCZ . This motivates searching for mechanisms that favor tropical cyclogenesis within the context of ITCZ dynamics. Studying dynamical mechanisms of perturbation growth in tropical cyclones is important from a perspective of designing ensemble prediction system and adaptive observations for tropical cyclones. It is widely accepted that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical shear are primary factors controlling the genesis and development of tropical cyclones (TCs). In the present study, the barotrophic energy conversion processes associated with TC Khaimuk which formed over the North Indian Ocean and affected the eastern coastal region of southern peninsular India during 13-16 November 2008 are studied.The special feature of this TC was that it did not retain its TC intensity for even a day. It intensified into a Cyclonic Storm (CS) at 12 UTC of 14th but weakened into Deep Depression (DD) by 15th /06 UTC over the sea itself and crossed coast as a DD. The analysis of the instability of the background flow along with change of eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversion are presented during life cycle of TC Khai-muk are presented. .
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Performance evaluation of spectrum of cyclones over North Indian Ocean using RAMS model Ancy Thomas, Basanta kumar Samala and Akshara Kaginalkar *Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune Unversity Campus, Pune - 411007, India In the present study, the performance of non-hydrostatic Regional Atmospheric Model (RAMS) model in simulating the tropical cyclones of different intensities, formed during pre and post monsoon are analyzed. The cyclones Orissa, Sidr, Mala, h04B, 01A, and Agni occured over North Indian Ocean are studied. This study reveals the ability of model in down-scaling the cyclone track simulation, cyclone intensity in terms of lowest sea level pressure, winds at 850 hpa and 200 hpa and thermodynamical features associated with the development of cyclones such as vertical wind shear, mid tropospheric humidity and sea surface temperature. It is found that the model could simulate the track of all cyclones reasonably well except for h04B. The track error increases with the simulation time. The model overestimates the lowest mean sea level pressure in comparison with observations. Model is able to represent the low level circulation and upper air divergence of wind during all the cyclone cases . The model simulations are in agreement with the criteria of low vertical wind shear required for the cyclogenesis and relative humidity above 60% at 700 hpa and 500 hpa satisfies the condition of high moisture required for the deep convection during the intensification of cyclones.
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An observational and modeling study of the tropical cyclone Phet. Jagabandhu Panda*, 1R. K. Giri** and 1, 3Harvir Singh*** Satellite Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India 2 School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 3 HCL Info-systems, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA, U. P., India *jagabandhu@gmail.com, ** rk.giriccs@gmail.com, ***harvirduphy@gmail.com
1 2
The accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) depends on the quality of forecast model and initial conditions. In this study, recent and advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL scheme, Dudhia short wave scheme, RRTM long wave scheme WSM 3-class microphysics and unified Noah land-surface model in order to study the characteristic features of the tropical cyclone PHET that occurred over the Arabian sea (in 2010) and affected the coastal areas of several countries. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is carried out with respect to various cumulus convective parameterizations including Grell-Devenyi ensemble scheme, Kain-Fritsch scheme, Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme and Grell-3D scheme for the prediction of track and intensity of the cyclonic storm PHET. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1olon/lat resolution in these model simulations. However, the model initial conditions are further modified using KALPANA-1 atmospheric motion vectors and OCEANSAT-2 surface winds through a three dimensional variational technique within ARW modeling system (WRF-3DVAR). The simulated results of extreme weather parameters including the rainfall, wind field, track and intensity of the cyclone are critically analysed comparing with those observed/predicted by India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. Further, the model simulated results are qualitatively examined alongside the satellite observations from METEOSAT, MODIS and KALPANA-1 in order to understand the model performance as when compared to the observations. Several parameters derived from satellite observations are also analysed including outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE; rainfall), sea surface temperature (SST), relative vorticity, upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) and the track of the cyclone (figure shown below) in order to understand the genesis of the storm. The observational analysis reveals relatively higher values of SST (~26.5oC), relative vorticity and UTH (90-100%) during the life span of PHET. A higher negative correlation (~ -0.96) between the OLR and QPE corresponds to the observed maximum value of QPE when there is minimum OLR and the cyclone reaches its maximum intensity after a day of attending this state. The model also simulated the extreme weather parameters reasonably well and the performance is slightly improved further through the satellite data assimilation using surface winds and atmospheric motion vectors.
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Figure: Track of cyclone PHET
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Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and a Rapid Intensification (RI) Index S. D. Kotal and S. K. Roy Bhowmik India Meteorological Department, NWP Division, New Delhi-110003 E-mail: sdkotal.imd@gmail.com A rapid intensification index (RII) is developed for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. The RII uses large-scale characteristics of tropical cyclones to estimate the probability of rapid intensification (RI) over the subsequent 24-h. The RI is defined as an increase of intensity 30 kt (15.4 ms-1) during 24-h, which represents approximately the 93rd percentile of 24-h intensity changes of tropical cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during 1981-2010. It is found that 32% of all very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) and all super cyclonic storms (SUCS) underwent RI phase at least once during their lifetime. No cyclonic storm (CS) and severe cyclonic storm (SCS) underwent RI phase. Various large-scale variables associated with the RI cases are compared to those of non-RI cases. These comparisons show that the RI cases generally occur at higher latitude and are intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12-h than the non-RI cases. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are embedded in regions where the upper-level divergence, lower-level relative vorticity and relative humidity are more and vertical winds shear is weak. Finally, the initial wind speed of RI cases is higher and tends to move with a faster translational speed than the non-RI cases. The RII technique is developed by combining threshold (index) values of the eight variables for which statistically signicant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. The probability of RI is found to be increases from 0% to 100% when the total number of indices satised increases from zero to eight. Key words: Tropical cyclone, Rapid intensification, Probability, Vorticity, Divergence, Vertical wind shear, Bay of Bengal.
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Development of the Lagrangian Advection model for prediction of tropical cyclone track over the Indian Ocean Sanjeev Kumar Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal, and P. K. Pal Atmospheric Sciences Division, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Group Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad-380015, India Email: singh08sanjeev@gmail.com A new model has been developed for track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones. The Model utilizes environmental steering flow using the forecasts from a high resolution global model and the effect due to earths rotation (the Beta-effect) to determine the future movement of cyclone. The model is based on the dynamical frame work and the time for running is very less. A new approach based on vertical profile of potential vorticity (PV) is used to determine the weights for different vertical levels for computation of mean steering flow. The effect of environmental flow over the cyclone track is also examined by removing the existing cyclonic feature from the mean wind fields. For this, a new approach based on vortex pattern matching has been used to identify the cyclone vortex and to remove it from mean wind fields. The data used in the present work for the computation of cyclone trajectories are the high resolution 0.50.5 forecasted atmospheric wind fields and temperature from Global Forecast System (GFS), which is the global NWP computer model run by NOAA. The wind fields and temperature are taken for the North Indian Ocean domain at every 6-hour interval of 26 pressure levels (10 mb-1000 mb) for 0 to 72 hours forecast. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track analysis data has been used for defining the initial position of cyclonic vortex. The present Lagrangian Advection model has been used to forecast the 6-hourly track of six tropical cyclones (viz., Nargis, Khai-Muk, Aila, Phyan, Laila and Jal) which were formed in the North Indian basin during the period 2008 to 2010. The maximum PV based approach has been used for determining the optimal steering levels which is adapted from the study by Hoover and Morgan (2006). The important step in this model is to form a synthetic cyclone (Jaiswal and Kishtawal, 2011) which was used to remove the cyclonic features from the environmental flow. The forecast errors for all the cyclone cases have been computed with respect to JTWC analysis best track. To limit the size of the presentation, the forecasted tracks of one of the above cyclones, Nargis, are shown in Fig.1 (a-f) respectively. The predicted mean track errors of the Lagrangian Advection model w.r.t. JTWC analysis best track for six cyclones for 12-72 hours are shown in Fig.2. References: Hoover, B.T. and Morgan, M.C. (2006) Effects of cumulus parameterization on tropical cyclone potential vorticity structure and steering flow. Preprints of the 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 23-28, 2006. Monterey, CA, paper 8B.5. Jaiswal, Neeru and Kishtawal, C.M. (2011) Prediction of tropical cyclogenesis using scatterometer data. TGRS, 2153862.
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a: 72-H Forecast from 28-Apr-00Z b: 72-H Forecast from 29-Apr-00Z c: 72-H Forecast from 30-Apr-00Z
d: 60-H Forecast from 01-May-00Z e: 36-H Forecast from 02-May-00Z f: 12-H Forecast from 03-May-00Z
Fig.1: Six forecasts ((a) 72 hours prediction from 28-Apr-00Z, (b) 72 hours prediction from 29-Apr-00Z, (c) 72 hours prediction from 30-Apr-00Z, (d) 60 hours prediction from 01-May-00Z, (e) 36 hours prediction from 02-May-00Z and (f) 12 hours prediction from 03-May-00Z) generated for NARGIS Cyclone by the Lagrangian Advection model.
Fig.2: Mean track error of the all six cyclones

BOBTEX-2011
Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Based on Coupled Model Outputs D. R. Pattanaik*, M. Mohapatra, Y. V. Rama Rao and Ajit Tyagi India Meteorological Department, New Delhi * Email- pattanaik_dr@yahoo.co.in/drpattanaik@gmail.com Over the North Indian Ocean the months of October-November are known to produce cyclones of severe intensity in the Bay of Bengal, which cause damages to life and property over many countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal. The strong winds, heavy rains and large storm surges associated with tropical cyclones are the factors that eventually lead to loss of life and property. Rains (sometimes even more than 30 cm/24 hrs) associated with cyclones are another source of damage. There are two cyclones formed during the post monsoon season of 2010 (Fig. 1). The first one Giri initially seen as a low pressure area on 19th October over the east central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood, intensified into a tropical cyclone at 0600 UTC of 21st and became a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) at 0300 UTC of 22nd, which crossed the Myanmar coast on 22nd. The second cyclonic storm of the season Jal formed in the Bay of Bengal was first observed as a low pressure area over the south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood on 2nd November, which intensified into severe cyclonic storm (SCS) at 2100 UTC of 5th. It crossed north Tamil Nadusouth Andhra Pradesh coasts, close to north of Chennai between 1700 & 1800 hrs UTC of 7th November and caused lot of damage in Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast associated with not only strong wind but also due to heavy rainfall associated with the cyclone. With the improvement in numerical model and use of wide ranges of non conventional data in the assimilation system of the model there has been considerable improvement in the forecast skill of tropical cyclones particularly in the short range up to 72 hr. However, the forecasting of genesis of tropical cyclone and associated rainfall in the extended range time scale (about 10 days to 2 weeks in advance) is very useful in many respects. In the present study an attempt is made to forecast the genesis of tropical cyclone and also the associated rainfall activity in the extended range time scale over the north Indian Ocean for the cyclones Giri and Jal using the multimodel ensemble techniques. The multi-model extended range forecasts are prepared based on the coupled model outputs from ECMWF and NECP. The outputs from these two models are used and the multi-model ensemble forecasts are generated on every Friday with forecast anomaly for week 1 (Monday to Sunday) and week 2 (subsequent Monday to Sunday). The low level relative vorticity, low level convergence, wind shear and the rainfall forecasts are analysed to consider the genesis of tropical cyclones. The operational forecast for days 05-11 of weekly mean wind from NCEP CFS and ECMWF coupled models based on 14th Oct, 2010 initial condition (Figs. 2a & 2b) indicates cyclonic circulation at low level over the central Bay of Bengal during the period from 18-24 October associated with the severe cyclone Giri. The centre of cyclonic circulation in case of CFS forecast is (Fig. 2a) closer to observed location of the system when compared with the ECMWF forecast (Fig. 2b). The genesis of the cyclone Jal was very much captured in both the coupled models even in the forecast valid for 12-18 days based on the initial condition of 21 October, 2010 as indicated by cyclonic circulation over the Tamil Nadu coast during 01-07 November (Fig. 3a & 3b). The MME forecast valid for 01-07 November based on 28 Oct and 21 Oct initial conditions (with forecast period of days 05-11 and days 12-18 respectively) also clearly indicated large positive rainfall anomalies over the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh region (Fig. 3c & 3d) like that of observed rainfall anomalies. Thus, the extended range forecast indicates very well the genesis and also the associated
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rainfall distribution due to the tropical cyclones of post monsoon season of 2010. The other dynamical parameters like the low-level vorticity, wind shear, humidity etc are also analysed in the model forecast fields to understand the genesis of both the severe cyclones Giri and Jal.
. Fig. 1 : Cyclonic disturbances of post monsoon season from October-December, 2010. The dark black lines indicate two severe cyclones Jal and Giri.
(a) NCEP CFS 850 hPa forecast mean wind (kts) Day 05-11 based on 14 Oct, valid for 18-24 Oct 2010 (b) ECMWF 850 hPa forecast mean wind (kts) Day 05-11 based on 14 Oct, valid for 18-24 Oct 2010
Fig. 2 : Forecast 850 hPa weekly mean wind during the cyclone Giri valid for days 05-11 (18-24 Oct 2010) based on initial condition 14 Oct. (a) based on NCEP CFS and (b) based on ECMWF coupled models.
(a) NCEP CFS 850 hPa forecast mean wind (kts) Day 12-18 based on 21 Oct, valid for 01-07 Nov 2010 (b) ECMWF 850 hPa forecast mean wind (kts) Day 12-18 based on 21 Oct, valid for 01-07 Nov 2010
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(c) MME forecast rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Valid for days 05-11 (01-07 Nov, 2011), IC=28 Oct
(d) MME forecast rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Valid for days 12-18 (01-07 Nov, 2011), IC=21 Oct
Fig. 3 : Forecast 850 hPa weekly mean wind during the cyclone Jal valid for days 12-18 (01-07 Nov 2010) based on initial condition 28 Oct from (a) based on NCEP CFS and (b) based on ECMWF coupled models. The corresponding MME forecast rainfall anomalies valid for 01-07 Nov, based on (c) 28 Oct and (d) based on 21 Oct initial conditions.
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Impact of Resolution and Data Assimilation on the prediction of the cyclone JAL over Bay of Bengal using WRF(NMM) and grid point statistical interpolation scheme. K. Naga Ratna India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003. Email: knratna@gmail.com In this study, performance of WRF (NMM) model and the regional Grid-point Statistical Interpolation(GSI) data assimilation scheme used to simulate the cyclone JAL that formed over Bay of Bengal during postmonsoon season 2010, has been evaluated. A severe cyclonic storm, JAL (4-8 November 2010) developed over the Bay of Bengal from the remnants of a depression which moved from northwest Pacific Ocean to the Bay of Bengal across southern Thailand. It moved westnorthwestwards and intensified upto severe cyclonic storm on 6 November. However as the severe cyclonic storm, JAL moved to the southwest Bay of Bengal closer to India coast and weakened gradually into a deep depression and crossed north Tamilnadu south Andhra Pradesh coast on 7 November. WRF(NMM) version 3.2 model was integrated with regional GSI data assimilation scheme for 72 hours from 4 -7 November 2010 at 9km and 3km horizontal resolutions and 38 levels in vertical. The model could capture the direction of the movement and the landfall of JAL cyclone which was predicted 48 hours before real-time with landfall forecast error of 56km and time error of 2 hours delay. The impact of the conventional datasets, as AWS along the east coast, Ship data of SagarKanya data during its cruise over the Bay of Bengal for the cyclone period, SagarPurvi and SagarPaschimi stationed near the coast have been assimilated. The impact of the datasets for the simulations of the cyclone JAL and performance of the model has been evaluated. The cyclone track and intensity were evaluated for both the horizontal resolutions 9km and 3km. The track performance with 9km yielded improvement with optimized track error of 50km during 24 to 48 hour period. The intensity of the cyclone as simulated with the 3km resolution model is more compared to the 9km resolution. Performance parameters thus computed for the validation exercise are (a) Direct Position Errors (b) Zonal (latitudinal biases DY) (c) Meridional biases (longitudinal biases DX) and evaluated against the CLIPER model. In Extension to above study, Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Model (HWRF) adapted from NCEP, USA has been implemented at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. WRF (NMM) being the base of the HWRF model, has the similar data assimilation, regional data assimilation system. The data assimilated in WRF (NMM) and regional GSI system for the cyclone JAL has been used on experimental basis for case study in data assimilation with HWRF model. The experiments done for the cyclone JAL with data assimilation using HWRF model are compared with above WRF (NMM) model results.
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Study of Jal Cyclone Track Using WRF Cumulus Parameter Schemes M. Venkatrami Reddy, S. Balaji Kumar, S. B. Surendra Prasad and K. Krishna Reddy Semi-arid-zonal Atmospheric Research Centre (SARC) Department of Physics, Yogi Vemana University, Kadapa, Andhra Pradesh krishna.kkreddy@gmail.com Tropical cyclones that form over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during pre-monsoon (April-May), early monsoon (June), late and post monsoon (September-November) cause vulnerable damage to lives and property over the coastal regions of India with strong winds, heavy rain and tidal wave. Though the general behavior of the movement of the tropical cyclones (TC) is known, it is desirable to have timely and reasonably accurate prediction of the tracks and their intensities. The numerical models based on fundamental dynamics and well-defined physical processes provide a useful tool for understanding and predicting tropical Cyclones. For accurate forecast of TC, it is essential that numerical models must incorporate realistic representation of important physical and dynamical processes as they play crucial role in determining genesis, intensification and movement. In the present study, numerical simulation experiments on severe cyclone "JAL" is formed. For JAL track prediction, a fully compressible, non-hydrostatic Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model with Arakawa C-grid is used. The advanced research WRF model was run at grid spacing of 27 km, 9 km and 3 km. The cyclone track study is done with National Center for environmental prediction (NCEP), final analysis fields (NCEP FNL) or the reanalysis data with 1.0 x 1.0 degree grid resolution used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the WRF model. In the JAL cyclone track prediction, WRF modeling was performed by changing cumulus schemes such as Kain Fritsch (KF), BettsMiller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi (GD) and New Grell (NG) without changing microphysical properties, PBL, and Radiation Schemes. The track observed with Kain Fritsch (KF) scheme is well compared temporally and spatially with Indian Meteorological Department(IMD) observed track and the remaining Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi (GD) and New Grell (NG) schemes too suitable with IMD observed track only spatially. The cyclone centre pressure, maximum cyclone surface wind speed obtained from the model are well compared with the IMD data. The variation of pressure, temperature and humidity parameters from the Automatic Weather Station at Yogi Vemana University, kadapa (14.47N; 78.82E), a semi arid region of India, during the cyclone landfall was analyzed and compared with the modeled parameters. The results are in reasonable in good agreement.
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Impact of data assimilation system for simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal with WRF-NMM modeling system Sujata Pattanayak and U C Mohanty Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016 In recent years the need for higher quality and more versatile data assimilation techniques has becomes widely accepted. Additional demands on data assimilation techniques have resulted due to several different reasons. First, the increased density, frequency and quality of data network with increased observing systems (land as well as remote sensing platforms) needs the improvement in data assimilation systems. Second, the quality and quantity of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models necessitate appropriate and more realistic representation of initial state of the atmosphere using better data assimilation techniques. The study represents the impact of observational datasets for simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal with Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system. Though WRF 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system (WRF-Var) provides improved initial conditions to Advanced Research WRF (ARW), a unified WRF-Var utility has been developed to be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. The upgraded code has been successfully tested and implemented to simulate three recent very severe cyclonic storms i.e. the pre-monsoon cyclones Nargis (27 April to 03 May, 2008) & Aila (23 to 26 May, 2009) and the post-monsoon cyclone Jal (04 to 07 November, 2010) developed over Bay of Bengal. A total of 24 cases (8 different initial conditions for Nargis starting from 28April 2008; 7 different initial conditions for Aila starting from 22 May 2009; 9 different initial conditions for Jal starting from 03 November 2010) at every 00 and 12 hr are selected for an enhanced assessment on the performance of the WRF-NMM modeling system. For this purpose, two sets of numerical experiments are carried out with the meso-scale model WRF-NMM. In the first experiment, i.e. in the control simulation (CNTL), the model has been integrated up to 96 hours in a single domain with the horizontal resolution of 9 km along with 51 levels up to a height of 30 km in the vertical for all the cases. The initial and lateral boundary conditions to a limited area model are usually provided from the large scale analysis and forecasts available at different NWP centers in the world. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses and forecasts (1 x 1 horizontal resolution) are used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions respectively. Again, in order to improve the initial analysis fields for the model integration, an attempt has been made to initialize WRF-NMM model with WRF-VAR system. Hence, in the second experiment, i.e. in the data assimilation (DA), the impact of the observational data sets has been investigated by incorporating the available conventional and non-conventional data sets over Indian region. Hence, for all the above mentioned cases (Nargis, Aila and Jal), the model is integrated with corresponding different initial conditions each, as described above with the improved initial conditions through WRF-Var system. The improvement in model integration is verified statistically and analytically. The vector displacement errors (VDEs) in track forecast are calculated with respect to the observed track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The mean improvements in VDEs of 33%, 15%, 10%, 14% and 15% are seen (Fig 1) at 00hr, 24hr, 48hr, 72hr and 96hr respectively in track prediction with the DA experiments than the control simulations. Improvements in model performance are also noticed in respect of the intensity prediction. The analysis on the observational datasets such as (a) zonal wind (m/s), (b) meridional wind (m/s), (c) temperature (K) and (d) specific humidity (kg/kg) clearly indicate the improvement in model initial condition with assimilation. In case of Nargis, the root mean square errors (RMSE) for different variables with and
BOBTEX-2011
without assimilation indicate the improvement of 50% with the assimilation technique. It may also be noted that, the buoy and ship data does not show significant improvement like any other datasets. It may be due to the scarcity in the data coverage and constrained to only surface data. In case of Aila, RMSE reduces significantly (more than 300%) with AIREP (aircraft temperature and winds) observations at the initial time. It may also be noticed that, the buoy and ship data significantly improve the initial condition to the model integration. In case of Jal, significant improvement is noticed in zonal and meridional wind components with AIREP and buoy datasets. Further, the structure of the above mentioned cyclones has been investigated. For this purpose, few diagnostics such as east-west cross section of horizontal wind (m/s), vertical velocity (m/s), vorticity (x10-5 s-1) and moisture convergence etc. representing the structure of the cyclones also shows the improvement in DA experiments than that of control simulations. Keywords: WRF-NMM, WRF-Var, Tropical cyclone, Track, Vector Displacement Error, Structure
Mean vector displacement errors (km)

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 00hr 12hr 24hr 36hr 48hr 60hr 72hr 84hr 96hr
CNTL DA
Fig 1 Mean vector displacement errors from all the 24 cases with both CNTL and DA experiments
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National Conference Ministry of Earth Sciences on Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiments (BOBTEX-2011) (BOBTEX

New Delhi 1-2 November 2011 1

Extended Abstracts Abstract

Cyclone Warning Division

India Meteorological Department

National Conference on Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiments (BOBTEX-2011)

Cyclone Warning Division

India Meteorological Department

Fig.2 (a). 24 hr cyclone track forecast errors of IMD during 2003-2010.

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Fig.2.(b): 24 hr cyclone track forecast skill scores of IMD during 2003-2010.

12 hr Landfall forecast errors (km) during 2003-2010

Year 12 hr forecast error Linear (12 hr forecast error)

Lead Period (hrs) 12 24 36 48 60 72

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

17-21 May 2010 Severe cyclone South of Machhilipatnam 100 kmph

11-16 December 2003 Severe cyclone South of Machhilipatnam 100 kmph

257 km No forecast issued No forecast issued 81

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

*Central / State Govt/ Media/ Public

Display of wind radii envelop

Display of wind radii envelop

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

(b) 11.12.2009 0600 UTC DD 8.0/84.5

(f) 15.12.2009 0600UTC Weakened into a WML over Sri Lanka

(g) 16.12.2009 0600UTC LOPAR over Gulf of Mannar

(a) 12.12.2009 0000 UTC 10.0/84.5 CS with wind speed 35 kts.

(c) 13.12.2009 0600 UTC 9.0/83.0 DD - wind speed 20 kts -

(f) 14.12.2009 1200 UTC

(g) 15.12.2009 0000 UTC

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Max_Z Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009

PPI_V Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009

VVP-2 Pictures of AILA on 25th May 2009

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Numerical modeling of Tide-Surge interaction in the Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Cyclone Warning Division, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Fig.1. Severe Cyclone (Nov 12, 2002- 0700 UTC)

Fig. 2. OGNI (Oct 29, 2006- 0218 UTC)