Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 1, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 1, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims increased to 368,000 for w/e on 25 Jan. German Unemployment Rate declined to 6.8 percent in December. UKs Nationwide HPI rose by 0.5 percent in the current month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on the back of rise in Japans unemployment rate, fall in Chinas manufacturing PMI along with unfavorable jobless claims data from the US in yesterdays trading session. US Unemployment Claims increased by 38,000 to 368,000 for the week ending on 25th January as against a rise of 330,000 in prior week. Employment Cost Index rose by 0.5 percent in Q4 of 2012 from rise of 0.4 percent in Q3 of 2012. Personal Spending increased at slow pace of 0.2 percent in December as compared to rise of 0.4 percent in November. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 4 points to 55.6-mark in January when compared to 51.6-level in December.
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Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6034.8 19895.0 13860.58 1498.1 17439.1 1961.9 59761.5 11138.7 97.49 1660.60 3133.50 8199.75 101.54 Prev. day -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -0.1

as on January 31, 2013 WoW 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -1.8 -0.1 -2.3 -0.1 1.6 0.3 -1.1 1.5 -0.2 0.4 MoM 0.4 0.7 3.5 5.0 3.2 -2.5 -4.4 6.0 4.9 0.8 2.2 4.5 YoY 15.3 15.0 9.0 14.1 7.2 0.7 -7.4 26.4 -0.1 -5.0 -7.2 -3.0 -2.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined by 0.1 percent yesterday on account of mount in the Chicago PMI and mixed economic data from the US. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of rise in the US jobless claims data. Apart from that, US equities also traded on a weak note which also prevented further fall in the DX. In the initial part of the trade, the currency had appreciated as a result of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency touched an intra-day low of 79.16 and closed at 79.23 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.23 53.26 53.41 53.40 Prev. day -0.1 -0.1 -0.21 -0.24

as on January 31, 2013 WoW -1.0 0.8 -0.54 -0.56 MoM -1.6 2.3 -3.17 -3.17 YoY 0.2 -7.8 7.36 7.35

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of increase in the foreign inflows. Additionally, selling of dollars from exporters also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of weak domestic market sentiments along with strength in the DX in the early part of the trade. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 53.06 and closed at 53.26 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 22,059.20 crores ($4,059.32 million) as on 31st January 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.22,509.10 crores ($4,059.30 million) till 31sr January 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of countrys manufacturing PMI which is expected to come on a negative note.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 1, 2013 Support 53.20/53.05 Resistance 53.60/53.75

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 1, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session as result of German Unemployment Change declined by 16,000 in December from earlier fall of 2,000 a month ago. German Unemployment Rate declined to 6.8 percent in December as compared to rise of 6.9 percent a month earlier. Additionally, weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of German Retail Sales declined by 1.7 percent in December as against a rise of 0.6 percent in November. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3593 and closed at 1.3578 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on account of expectations of rise in European and Italian unemployment rate. However, sharp downside in the currency would be cushioned as a result of Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMI expected to come on appositive along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 72.11/71.95 72.55/72.80 valid for February 1, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3578 72.33 72.29 72.3 Prev. day 0.1 -0.3 -0.31 -0.33

as on January 31, 2013 WoW 1.5 -0.9 1.00 0.95 MoM 4.1 -1.4 -0.59 -0.63 10.14 10.11 YoY 3.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5854 84.459 84.30 Prev. day 0.3 0.30 -0.05

as on January 31, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday on account of Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) rose by 0.5 percent in the month of January. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside on the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5875 and closed at 1.5854 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of forecast for decline in countrys manufacturing PMI. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 1, 2013 Support 84.0/83.70 Resistance 84.60/85.05 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW 0.4 -0.31 -0.81

MoM -1.6 -5.60 -5.36

YoY 0.2 8.19 7.43

84.31

-0.02

-0.81

-5.37

7.44

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| February 1, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of Japans Housing Starts increasing at slow pace 10 percent in December from rise of 10.3 percent in earlier month. Apart from that industrial production also rose less than expected which also added downside pressure on the currency. Japans Household Spending declined by 0.7 percent in December as against a rise of 0.2 percent in November. Unemployment Rate raised to 4.2 percent in December as compared to 4.1 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 91.77 and closed at 91.72 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in the countrys unemployment rate along with decline in the household spending data will also added downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for February 1, 2013 Support 58.55/58.35 Resistance 58.98/59.25
Source: Telequote

as on January 31, 2013 Last 91.72 0.5803 58.76 58.77 Prev day 0.7 -0.92 0.12 0.12 WoW 1.5 -2.11 -2.01 -1.98 MoM 5.1 -8.50 -8.26 -8.25 YoY 20.4 -10.70 -9.76 -9.73

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on February 1, 2013

Indicator Household Spending y/y Manufacturing PMI HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ISM Manufacturing PMI Country Japan China China Euro Euro UK Euro Euro US US US US US Time (IST) 5:00am 6:30am 7:15am 1:45pm 2:15pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 3:30pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 8:25pm 8:30pm Actual -0.7% 50.4 52.3 Forecast -0.1% 51.1 52.1 45.5 47.6 51.0 2.2% 11.9% 161K 7.8% 0.2% 71.4 50.8 Previous 0.2% 50.6 51.9 44.6 46.7 51.4 2.2% 11.8% 155K 7.8% 0.3% 71.3 50.7 Impact Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium High

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