2011ForcesofChangeShapingtheFutureofQuality

(Notetoreaderstheseforcesandtheirdescriptionsrepresentthefirstphaseofthe2011ASQFutureofQuality Study.ThestudywasfieldedJanuarythroughMarch2011.Thedescriptionsbelowrepresentasynthesisof thoughtandthecontributionsofover150panelistsfrom40countries.ThepurposeofidentifyingtheForcesand descriptionsistostimulatediscussionaboutthefutureofqualityandtheimplicationstothosewhopractice qualityandthosewholeadorganizations.Theseforcesprovideafocusedopportunitytoexploreanuncertain future.Ultimately,itiswhatwedoinresponsetotheseforcesthatistherealvalueofthestudy.InPhase2ofthe studywewillexploretheimplicationsoftheseforcesactinguponthefutureofquality.)

1) Globalresponsibilityrepresentstheblendingofheightenedawarenessoftherequirementto becomemoresociallyresponsiblewithagrowingawarenessoftheglobalimpactoflocaldecisions. Ourplanetsfiniteresourcesarebeingcalleduponbyagrowingpercentageofpeopleintheworld, andwastethatwasonceeconomicallyacceptableisbecomingsociallyunconscionable.Thebreadth ofglobalresponsibilityspansgovernance,humanrights,laborpractices,fairoperatingpractices, environment,consumerinterests,andcontributiontosocietyasdescribedbyISO26000.Global responsibilityisacalltoethicalleadershipatalllevelsofsocietygovernments,organizations, schools,civicorganizations,neighborhoods,families,andindividualswithanevolvingunderstanding ofwhatbeingresponsiblemeans. Atanorganizationlevel,globalresponsibilityembracesgrowthandprofititisnotphilanthropy. Globalresponsibilityappreciatesthedualdynamicofbeingresponsiblebyreducingwaste(inall forms*)andtherealizationofthatsavingstothebottomlinewithincreasedexpectationsthatweb informedconsumerswillrewardorganizationsfortheirresponsibleeffortswiththeirpurchases. Leaderswilladvocateconcurrentimprovementsintopandbottomlines.Organizationsincreasingly valuetheirreputationandacttosustainitinthefaceofcrisis.Forproducers,globalresponsibilityis acomplextopicthatgoeswellbeyondproductionefficiencyandproductionwaste.Itincludes responsibledesignandtheobligationforfullproductlifecyclestewardship.Innovationbecomesan advocateofsustainability.Aninnovationwithoutadecreasedcosttosocietywillbeviewedas irresponsible. Thereareincreasingexpectationsthattodaysglobalorganizationswillcontributetheirproblem solvingskillsandresourcestosocietalneedsoutofenlightenedselfinterestforthelongerhorizons ofbusinesssustainabilitythroughacombinationofsocialandorganizationalstrength. (*Wastemostdefinitionsofwastearelimitedtotheobservableaspectsofwastescrapand pollution.Somemightincluderework(thehiddenfactory)asacostofwaste.Fullyunderstood wasteincludesthecostofaddressingdissatisfactionandboththedisloyaltyofcustomersandthe lostopportunitythatdissatisfiedwordofmouthmaycostinthereductionofnewcustomers. Futuremeasuresofwastemaywellincludethewasteofpooruseofmaterialindesign,thewasteof humanpotential,andthefullcostofunethicalconductonthelivesofthoseaffected.Allthesecosts andconsequencesareavoidableandthereforemaybeconsideredwaste.Anotherwasteisthe wasteofhumanitythatcomesfromundevelopedminds;liveslivedwithoutpurposeandthelost

contributionstosocietythatwouldcomewiththefullengagementofallpeoplelivingworthwhile lives.) 2) ConsumerAwarenessisaboutconsumersusingtheirknowledgetomakepurchasingdecisionsbest alignedwiththeirpreferences.BeforetheInternet,consumptionwasprimarilylimitedtolocally availableproductsandservices.Todayconsumerscanshoparoundtheworld,andtheycanuse Internetknowledgetoinformtheirdecisionsnotsimplyrelatedtotheproduct/serviceitself,but alsothepracticesofthecompany.IftheInternetmadeknowledgewidelyavailable,socialmediais makinginformationinstantlyavailable.Consumerbehaviormovesatspeedoftheelectronpacein bothpositiveandprecipitouslynegativedirections.Providerswillfindthemselvesneedingto respondatsimilarratestothecollectivebehaviorofcustomers. Closelyrelatedtotheriseofconsumerawarenessistheabilityforconsumerstomatchtheir requirementsandproduct/serviceattributes.Theorganizationsthatcreatethegreatestflexibilityin theirabilitytocreateproductsandservicestomatchcustomersexactwantsandneedswillbe rewarded.Serviceprovidersarealreadyheadedthisdirectionastheytailorexperiencestocustom fittheircustomers.Theirdatabasesandthemassivedatabasesavailabletothemallowthemto capturecustomerpreferences.Newflexiblemanufacturingtechnologieswillsoonallow manufacturerstofollowsimilarpathsofmasscustomization.Economicallyorderquantitiesofone andzerowaittimeswillbecometherule. Thisforcewillusherinanewmeaningforthecustomerfocusedorganization.

3) Globalization.Globalizationistheonlyforcethathasbeenonthestudysince1996.Itwasfirston thelistsin2005and2008.Earlierstudiesreferredtoglobalizationasthe800poundgorillaof forces.Itsstrengthwastwicethatoftheforcethatfolloweditonthelist.However,what globalizationmeans,hasshiftedsince1996whenglobalizationmeantahugeopportunityfor companiesthatcouldfigureouthowtocapitalizehugenewconsumermarkets.By2005the opportunityofglobalmarketswasoffsetbyfearofcompetitionandlowercostlabor.Whatseemed certainby2008waseitherwayopportunityorthreatglobalizationwasanirreversiblereality. Thosethatignoredglobalizationdidsoatgreatrisk. Then,asnow,theonlyneutralizingfactor,butnotstronglymeasured,wastheprospectoflocal productionandasenseofsocialresponsibilitytoearnagreatershareofconsumerspending.Why buyproduceshippedhalfwayaroundtheworld,eveniflessexpensive,whenlocallygrown alternativescouldsignificantlyreducepackaging,transportation,andenergyconsumption?Read thePackaginghasnewmeaningin2011. Globalcustomersandglobalsupplychainsoccupyagreatershareinorganizationalstrategy.Risk andopportunityarehugeandexecutivesandgovernmentsarereelinginresponsetoissuesthatare nolongerboundbynationalborders.Complexityhasnewmeaningor,bettersaid,humanminds struggletomakemeaningofthecomplexitytheyface.Ifthatsnotenough,complexityiscertainto increase.

Wovenintotheopportunityandriskofglobalizationandthechallengesoforganizationstomanage theirenterprisesthatnowcrossborders,cultures,andeconomicdevelopmentalstages,arethe issuesoffiniteresources. Stillthe800poundgorilla,isevermorepresentinthemindsofmanagers andleaderscreatingnewopportunities,creatingnewchallenges,driving consumption,and(resource)exhaustion.Offeringlowercostlaborand creatingdemand.Globalissimplytherealityinwhichorganizationsmust learntocompeteandwin.2011FuturePanelistComment.

4) Theincreasingrateofchangewasboundtosurfaceasaforceofchange.Inthebackgroundofpast futurestudieshasbeentheissueofspeed.Infactin1999,whenwereviewedthefindingsofthe 1996study,acommoncommentwas,theonlythingweunderestimatedwastherateofchange. Wereferredtothatfactorasspeedandinthe21stcenturytechnologyisthegaspedal. Likeearlierforcestheincreasingrateoftechnologicalchangebringsopportunityandthreat.High amongstthethreatsissocietysinabilitytoadapttothechangesfoisteduponusbynewtechnology. Newtechnologycouldcreateconsequencesifwefailtoimagine. Ontheopportunitysideoftechnologyaresolutionstoworldproblems.Energy,pollution,fresh water,food,housing,HIV,andcanceralllayonourlistofhopesfortechnologicalsolutions.Without solutionstotheseproblems,ourdreamthatthefuturecanprovideourchildrenaqualityoflife equalorgreaterthanourownisdoubtful.Ifpopulationgrowthwasthedriverofeconomicsuccess inthelastcentury,itwillhavetoslideoverastechnologytakesthewheelinthe21stcentury. However,technologywillbemuchlesspredictableaforcethanpopulationgrowth.Technologyis certaintosurpriseusinwaysthatdisruptourstatusquo. Futuristsarealreadypredictingthatnanotechnologywillhaveamoresignificantimpactonourlives thantheInternet,andothertechnologiesarecomingthatwehaventevenlabeledwillberight behindnano.Anddontcountinformationtechnologyouteither.In2005(whenthe2005issueof theFutureStudywasbeingdrafted)aterabyteofstoragewasnearing$100(USD)andwasthesize ofasmallhandbag.Now2terabytescanbepurchasedforthesamepriceandthesizeisnotmuch biggerthanapackofcigarettes! Productlifecyclesareshortnow.Consumerelectronicshavelifecyclesofsixmonthsorlessandwill beshorterinthefuture.Industrieswillbeborn,becomesignificantinourlives,anddisappearwith increasingrapidity.Beingfirsttomarketwillbewherethericheswillbewon.Therewillbelittle time,orevenmarket,forsecondplace. Allthisspeedwillrequireorganizationstobetteranticipatethefutureandbepreparedtorespond tothecustomersfeedbackinlightningspeed.Thecostofmissingacuefromthemarket,attodays speedofinformationsharing,couldbedisastroustoproducers,iftheyfailtosenseandrespond.

Thisfactorisfastbecomingawayoflifecausingfasterchangecycles, moredynamicthinking,andR&Dinaworldthatdemandsmore,faster, andbetteratlowertotalcost.FuturePanelistComment

5) TheWorkforceoftheFuturewillchallengeournotionsoftalent,work,workplace,andlearning. Whilehardtofathomwerebeingtoldunemployment,aswethinkofit,willbecomeathingofthe past.Thenumberofjobswillsoonexceedthenumberofpeopleavailabletofillthem. Demographerspredictorganizationswillfindthemselvescompetingfortalentandthatcompetition willmovejobsaroundtheglobe.Hightechcompaniesalreadyreportthisreality.Thissearchfor talent,alongwithtechnologicaladvanceswillchangethenatureandplacewhereworkisdoneand organizationswillgrowincreasinglyflexibleintheirdefinitionsofworkengagements.Thosewhoof retirementagewillbereattractedtoworkwithflexiblehourarrangementsandworkthatcanbe donewithoutcommuting. Therapidexpansionofinformation(nowdoublingevery18months)andtheimpactofaccelerating technologychangewillputpressuresonorganizationstokeeptheirworkforcecurrent.Lifelong learningwilltakeonnewmeaningandthemethodsoflearningwillchangeinresponsetojustin timeeducationneeds.Organizationswillfindtheneedtoprovidegreaterconsiderationsoftimefor learningandlargerinvestmentsinkeepingtheirworkforcecurrent.Countertothedoublingofnew informationisourabilitytoforgetthewisdomofthepastwhichalsoseemstobeaccelerating.A realchallengeineducatingtheworkforceoftomorrowistopreservethewisdomofthepastandto builduponitbaseduponnewinsightsratherthantocontinuetotreatknowledgeandtheoryasifit weredisposablepropertytobediscardedinfavorofthelatest,mostfashionableconcepts. Traditionalprovidersofeducation(schoolsanduniversities)willfindaneedtoplaceapremiumon preparingstudentstolearn.Theemphasismayshiftfromwhatstudentslearn,tohowstudents learn.Professionalcertifications,evolvingtowardcompetencybasesmodels,willgrowinvolume andimportanceasorganizationsshifttheirexpectationsfromknowledgeandexperiencetoward demonstratedcompetencies.

6) Agingpopulationprovideschallengeandopportunity.Increasinglifeexpectancieswillchallenge worldresourcesandplaceincreasingpressuresonthecostofprovidinghealthcaretoalarger percentageoftheworldspopulation.Addingyearstolifecomesatapremiumofhealthcarecosts andsocietyhasnotaddressedtheethicalandmoralgroundofouratallcostsextendlifebeliefs. Likewise,ourmodelsofsocialwelfarefortheagedarebasedonassumptionsofthemany(working) payingforthefew(notworking.)Decliningworldpopulationsandexpandingagedpopulationsare alreadytestingthedurabilityofthesemodelsaroundtheworld. Itseemsworkinglongerwillbeacertainoption,ifnotrequirement,topostponeadayofreckoning. Organizationswillneedtalent,andpeoplewillneedtheeconomicmeanstoshoreuptheirfinances. Retirementmayquicklybecomeashortlivedartifactofthelatterhalfofthe20thcentury. Therewillalsobeopportunityinthegrowingagedmarket.Neverbeforehastheworldfacedthe numbersofagedcitizensandlittleisknownabouttheconsumptionandlifestyleneedsofthis

segment.Demographerspredictthatby2025themajorityofthepopulationwillbe65plus.The majority!Withhousing,furnishings,andthecostofraisingandeducatingchildrenbehindthem,we cananticipatewholenewlifestyleoptionsandexperiencesbeingcreatedforavitalandgrowing segmentofthepopulationwhenothersegmentsmightwellbeindecline. Qualityoflifemayresurfacewithsignificantimportancewhentheanswerisnotdrivenbythe formulaofmoreandtheengineofgrowthrisingpopulationsisnomore.Stableordeclining worldpopulationscouldhaveadramaticimpactonglobaleconomies.

7) 21stcenturyquality.Whilethismayseemlikegoingtoadictionarytolookupthefutureofquality andfindingseequality,qualityitselfiscalledoutasaforceofchange.Andthatsfittingasquality isnotwhatqualitywas.Andorganizationsshouldpreparetobenefitfromwhatqualityisbecoming ortheywillbesubjecttothecompetitionofthosethatdo.Thepracticeofqualityhastravelleda longevolutionarypath,fromqualitythroughpride,toqualitybyinspection,toqualityassurance, qualitybyprevention,perfectquality,andperhapsqualityofcreation.Wehavealsoseenquality departfromanaspectofproduct,orservice,tothequalityofmanagement,andultimatelythe qualityoftheenterpriseitself.Fromproducts,toprocesses,tosystems,toenterprises.Thoughall thisevolutiononetruthhasnotchanged.Qualityisultimatelywhatthecustomersaysitis,and whatthecustomeriswillingtopayfor.Thistruthisshapingorganizations,industries,andcountries. Itisanimmutabletruth,increasinglysoinaninformationrichenvironment. Dr.Juran(19042008)gavethequalitycommunityacompellingprophecy.Hesaidthe21stcentury wouldbethecenturyofquality.Whatwasitthatheforesaw?Didheforeseetheexpansionof qualityintoeverysectoroftheeconomymanufacturing,services,education,healthcare, government,andnonprofit?Didheforeseetheexpansionofqualityglobally?Didheseealarge scalerealizationoftheimportanceofqualitybyleadersofallorganizations?Ordidheseeallof thesepossibilitiesatonce? Ifqualityinthelastcenturywasdefinedbycontrolandimprovement,itisclearthatwhile necessarycontrolandimprovementwillnotbesufficientforthe21stcentury.Changeand transformationastheemergingtoolsofquality.Thereisdebateoverwhetherthesame professionalscanspanaskillcontinuumfromcontroltotransformation,butleadingthinkersinthe fieldareinvestingtheirtimeinmintingnewtoolsforchangeandtransformationandinvestingtheir energytoobtainnewskills. Manypredictthatnearperfectproduct/servicequalitywillbeaminimumforbeingcompetitivein thefuture.Tablestakes.Thebestcompaniesaremovingbeyondproductqualitytomanagetheir totalcustomerexperience.Bestpracticecompaniesaroundtheworldareshowing,bytheir examples,theefficacyofqualityappliedtotheimprovementofthewholeorganization.(Theseare thenationalqualityawardorganizationsinnearly100countriesmanufacturers,service companies,smallbusinesses,universities,schools,healthcareproviders,nonprofitsand governments.)

Whatisclearisthatqualitystillprovidesasustainablecompetitiveadvantage,whereveritsapplied. Itisalsoclearthatmodernqualitypracticesarestilllesscommonthanyoumighthope.Thereisa hugeopportunityforqualitytobeaforceofchangeinthefutureofquality.Andwhateverqualityis today,itwouldsurelyevolveinresponsetotheconstellationofforcesitjoinsinshapingthefuture. Theresoneadditionalevolutionofqualitythatisevidentandpowerful.Ifqualitystartedinthe handsofskilledtradesandartisans,itmovedintofactorieswhenmassproductionbecamethe norm.Thenoutoffactoriesintoeveryimaginablekindoforganizationsmallandlarge.Todayquality isbeingcalledoutoftheorganizationintothespacebetweenorganizationsthroughglobalsupply chains,andthroughnetworksofcompaniesthatunderstandtheirgreatestchallengeslayoutside theirorganizationalwalls.Andfromthere,qualitymovesevenfurtherupthefeedingchaintobe usedasconcepts,techniques,andtoolsinthesolutionofsocialproblems.Whilethenumberof examplesissmall,theyarenonethelessevidencethatqualityisexertingitselfinnewwaysin hopefulways.

8) Innovationhasbecomeabuzzword.Itseemstomeanthepursuitofdifferentandexciting.How innovationdiffersfromR&Disuncertain.Howinnovationdiffersfromimprovementisunclear. Whatisclearisthatinnovationisincreasinglythelifebloodofanorganization.Withtodays acceleratingpaceofchangenoorganizationcanassumeitsfuturewithouttheabilitytobring innovationtocustomers.Howtostimulateanorganizationtoinnovateisthesubjectofpapers, conference,articles,andtheelixirofconsultants.Howtocreateculturesthatinnovateand challengetodaysleaders.Innovationitseemsispoisedtoreplacemanufacturingasthesourceof wealthcreationincountries. Ifinnovationmeanstheabilityofacompanytoanticipatecustomerneeds,expressedor unexpressed,knownorunknown,andbringproducts/servicestothemarketplacethatexcite customers,thenclearlyinnovationisneededintodayschangingworld,andmoresotomorrow.