Committee: United Nations Disarmament Commission Delegation: Israel Topic: Conflict in Syria Delegate: Osman Syed A.

The Syrian Conflict, as it is popularly known, is one of the most violent and geopolitically significant ongoing events of the decade. As part of the Arab Spring uprisings, the conflict in Syria is unique for a number of reasons, including its classification by many observers as a full-scale civil war rather than a simple conflict. The Syrian government is led by Bashar al-Assad, an autocratic Baathist (pan-Arab nationalism) dictator whose family has ruled the nation since 1971 with the violent ascent of his father, Hafez al-Assad. According to UN Secretary General Ban-ki Moon, the conflict in Syria, as of May 21 st, 2012, is an all-out civil war due to the presence of a multitude of armed groups and factions, including the Syrian governments armed forces, the Iranian Republican Guard, Hezbollah, and a number of paramilitary groups affiliated with both the Assad regime and the Free Syrian Army (Al-Jazeera, 2012). Syrias economy is diverse by the standards of the Middle East, oil, heavy and light manufacturing, tourism, and agriculture providing much of the countrys GDP. The ruling Baathist partys economic policy is quasi-socialist, due mainly to Soviet support of pan-Arab nationalism in the 1950s and 1960s. The economy of Syria is highly unequal, due mainly to institutionalized corruption and cronyism that has favored the Alawite minority, stoking sectarian tension and enriching the Assad family and their associates. Syria has a per-capita GDP of $5,100, despite ad-hoc economic liberalization implemented by Syrias 2001 joining of the World Trade Organization (Deutsche-Welle, 2012). Petroleum extraction and export is a major sector of the Syrian economy, as is tourism with 1.1 million non-Arabs visiting the country in 2002, with 3.2 million Arabs visiting the same year. In recent years, trade relations with bordering Turkey have flourished due to that countrys strong economy, although economic sanctions have been imposed on Syrias central bank by the US, the EU, the Arab League, and Turkey due the governments crackdown on the opposition prior to the armed phase of the uprising. Syrias civil war began as a series of protests as part of the wider Arab Spring uprisings, but peaceful demonstrations were quickly met with violent suppression by the Syrian government. The al-Assad family are members of the minority Alawites, a Shiite heterodox sect that comprises roughly 10% of Syrias 20 million people. The Sunni majority, 74%, and Arab Christians, 10%, comprise the majority of the Syrian population. Due to these religious divides, the Syrian Civil War has undertones of sectarianism, a September New York Times article reporting Sunni refugee children in Jordan pledging revenge against the Alawi minority (NYT, 2012). Additionally, Shia pilgrims on their way to neighboring Lebanon have been kidnapped by rebels, accused of collusion or membership in Irans Republican Guard (operating in Syria) or with Hezbollah, the paramilitary organization that sparked a 2006 war with Israel by abducting Israeli soldiers. Nonetheless, the leadership of the dominant rebel organization, the Free Syrian Army, an umbrella group composed of regional brigades with various political allegiances, troop strengths, backers, and areas of operation, has pledged to preserve religious freedom should they come to power (BBC 2012). Movements against the Assad family have a brutal and violent history in the country, Hafez al-Assad killing upwards of 20,000 people in the 1982 Hama Massacre, the site of an armed revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood near Syrias lengthy Mediterranean coast. His son, Bassel, was commonly thought (NYT, January 22, 1994) to be groomed to succeed Hafez as the leader of Syria, but his death in a car crash in 1994 precluded any such act. As a result, Bashar, a western-educated ophthalmologist married to a wealthy investment banker, was instead chosen to lead the country following Hafezs death in 2000. Prior to the popular revolt, Bashar demonstrated a willingness for reform not seen among other members of the Syrian government, restrictions on freedom of expression and the press relaxed somewhat as hundreds of political prisoners were released in the spring of 2000. However, Bashar maintained a campaign of repression, the torture of political dissidents, and institutionalized corruption for personal profit, coupled with cronyism, leading to his amassing a fortune of almost $1.5 billion according to the British newspaper The Guardian (Guardian, 2012). Following the military response to protests in many large urban areas like the port city of Latakia or the capital, Damascus, a number of armed groups emerged to openly and forcefully rebel against the Syrian government. The origins of many of these groups are shadowy and unclear, Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia cited by

a number of US Department of Defense officials as being actively involved in the conflict. The involvement of foreign fighters has fueled the characterization of the uprising as a terrorist and criminal revolt by the Syrian government, although the Free Syrian Army is overwhelmingly composed of domestic personnel, according to reports by the BBC, the New York Times, and the Arab Leagues observers prior to their pullout only a month after their insertion (26/12/11-28/1/12). The unrest in Syria has threatened the small agriculture-based economic relationship between Syria and Israel, the Golan Heights region directly bordering Syria being threatened by the violence as well (NYT, 2012). The escalation of the violence from simple protests is a result of a number of factors. The brutality of the crackdown on opposition by the Syrian government shocked international observers, several reporters being killed in indiscriminate shelling by Syrian Peoples Army. Despite the protest movement beginning peacefully and numbering the thousands, the brutal response of the government led to the formation of splintered rebel groups, eventually coalescing into regional brigades under the Free Syrian Army. Several governments have pledged their support to the FSA, including the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and others either with military aid or humanitarian efforts. The Syrian government has been backed by Russia through weapons shipments, as Russias only Mediterranean naval base is located in the country. Additionally, Iran has sent weapons and Republican Guard contingents to aid the Syrian government in suppressing the rebellion, the use of chemical weapons by these troops reported by FSA activists, though the credibility of these reports is questionable (BBC, 2012). B. The United Nations has been heavily involved in the conflict both historically and in its current form. The UN was integral to the removal of the Syrian occupying force from Lebanon in 2005 after its 1976 invasion, passing a number of resolutions on the topic as well as releasing official statements. Following the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February of 2005, the UN called for an investigation, explicitly naming Syria as being potentially involved in the car bombing that claimed his life and those of 22 other Lebanese. Additionally, in 1974, a large UN observer force was stationed in the Golan Heights, following a Syrian surprise attack in an attempt to retake the territory that was beaten back by the Israeli military the year before. Prior to this, the United Nations was vital in defusing tensions and possible war between Syria and Turkey, as the former, backed by the Soviet Union, accused the latter of massing troops at the border following the shipment of a large quantity of heavy weapons and vehicles by the USSR to Syria in the years before tensions came to a head (UN, 2012). The UNDC is heavily invested in the Syrian Civil War. Syria is one of eight nations not signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, and its government has admitted to possession of these weapons, including VX nerve agents, mustard gas, sarin, and Tabun gas. The Syrian government stated on September 19 th that these weapons will be a weapon of last resort, sparking international concern. It is asserted by most pundits that this was in response to US President Barack Obamas statement of chemical weapons use as a red line for American or NATO intervention (Washington Post, 2012). In the past, Syria has attempted to develop nuclear capability, both for energy purposes and for atomic weapons. A clandestine, undeclared nuclear reactor in the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria, commonly assumed to be a nuclear weapons research site, was destroyed on September 6, 2007 by an Israeli airstrike acting on American intelligence, as well as the insertion of Israeli Air Force Shaldag commandos to determine the accuracy of the American information. 10 North Korean workers were killed in the raid (Bloomberg 28/4/2008), though Syrian casualties are unknown. The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) later detected traces of uranium and graphite at the site, further corroborating the narrative of the site as a nuclear weapons research facility (Der Spiegel, 2009. In the more recent conflict, the UN has taken a non-interventionist, hands-off approach to the issue. Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and current Secretary General Ban-ki Moon have both supported observer missions to minimize war crimes in the conflict, although Kofi Annan resigned as the UN-Arab League envoy in August 2012 after expressing frustration at the lack of action by the United Nations and internal conflict within the Security Council. This lack of unity within the Security Council has been attributed to the existence of alignments with the Russia-China bloc and the US-UK-France bloc. The latter favor intervention in Syria on behalf of the popular sentiment in Syria (Assad being deposed), while Russia and China would prefer otherwise. This conflict has prevented statements of condemnation by the UN of the Syrian government, even as

the civilian death toll mounts and evidence of war crimes by the SPA and affiliated militia groups continues to grow. The UN has issued a number of reports incriminating the SPA in the vast majority of atrocities against civilians, although the FSA has also been implicated on a much smaller scale. The use of heavy weapons in densely populated areas in particular has come under fire from the international community, the official report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights heavily emphasizing the culpability of the Syrian government in this regard. As the Security Council is split on this issue, little hope for UN military intervention via a peacekeeping force or a condemnation of the Syrian regime exists, preventing the full exercise of the UNSCs authority and powers. The UNHCR is heavily involved in the current civil war, many casualty figures, accounts of atrocities, and refugee numbers being reported by UNHCR affiliates or personnel. Additionally, UNICEF has accused the Syrian government of child torture, although such allegations have been denied by the Assad regime. UNICEF has also been integral to the schooling and care of children in the population of roughly 350,000 that have fled the violence to countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Algeria, and Armenia. However, these committees and UN organs, with the exception of the UNSC, possess little in the way of interventionist capability or an ability to stop the violence, only to provide humanitarian aid to those affected and provide accurate information on the humanitarian crisis that accompanies the military conflict. A multitude of NGOs are involved in the conflict. Human rights groups, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have been integral to revealing the nature of violations of these rights by both sides of the conflict. Additionally, international aid organizations like the Red Cross, Oxfam, and Medicines san Frontieres. Israel has also contributed humanitarian aid, Ayoob Kara, the Israeli deputy minister for development in the Negev and Galilee reporting Israeli civilians helping wounded and unwounded refugees flooding into their region. Countries bordering Syria have played a large role in the progression of the conflict. Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon have all accepted refugees numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Turkey in particular has been integral to the formation and success of the FSA. Refugee camps on the Turkish border are often used as staging areas for FSA operations, as well as refuge for their fighters with the tacit approval of the Turkish authorities, according to the BBC. Syrian anti-aircraft systems shot down a Turkish military fighter jet on June 24, 2012, sparking international condemnation and resulting in the death of both aircrew aboard in international waters. Additionally, Turkey has outright provided material support to FSA personnel, also tolerating the seizure of Syrian border posts by rebels. Turkey has also accepted defectors from the Syrian government, including a number of senior defense officials, generals, intelligence operatives, and others. The government of Turkey has reported over 20,000 deserters from the Syrian armed forces in February of 2012, bringing the FSAs strength (as reported by Turkey) to approximately 60,000 troops to the SPA and Shabiha militias 210,000. On the 29th of September, 2012, Al-Arabiya reported they received a number of leaked Syrian intelligence documents. In the events described in these papers, the pilots of the Turkish jet shot down by Syrian forces earlier in the year were not killed on impact, but instead captured relatively unharmed. However, after their interrogation, the two pilots were eliminated in a natural way and their bodies returned to the crash site, purportedly at the direction of Russian military advisors based out of that countrys naval facility in the Syrian city of Tartus. These documents also revealed a threat by the Syrian government to mobilize the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a quasi-socialist Kurdish paramilitary/terrorist organization that has been in a protracted, violent, and bloody conflict with Turkey since 1978 (Al-Arabiya, 2012). Lebanon has been a staging ground for paramilitary forces on both sides of the conflict. Hezbollah, a powerful force in Lebanon, has a long history of collusion with the Assad family, many operations carried out against the FSA in Syria attributed to Hezbollah irregulars. The use of snipers against protestors and civilians in Syrian cities like Homs, Latakia, and Damascus has also been attributed to Hezbollah. The relationship between Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, has played a large role in the escalation of the conflict, with many of the unconventional and heavy weapons used in the conflict by the Syrian government originating in Iran or Russia. Senior Israeli intelligence officials have reported the presence of the Iranian Republican Guard in Syria, as well as organizing protests against Israel in the Golan Heights on Nakba Day. Syrian intelligence documents obtained by Al-Arabiya also depict a joint Russian-Syrian-Iranian command being set up in the country, as well as coordination with Hezbollah in a wave of bombings across the country, the murder of Syrian activists, and the capture of opposition figures.

C. From the very beginning of the conflict, Israel, as a country with the potential to be deeply affected by an escalation of the civil war in Syria, has emphasized the need for respecting sovereign borders of all nations involved. As Syrian government forces fire on rebels and civilians in regions near Syria, the risk of munitions landing in Israeli territory is very high, a number of mortar shells fired by the SPA landing on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights on the 27th of September, 2012. A statement issued by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on the subject reads as follows Fire from Syria leaking into Israel will not be accepted. I.D.F. forces remain alert and will continue their routine activity protecting the borders and the residents of the state of Israel. This firing has the potential to cause significant property damage and human casualties should they land directly in Israeli villages and kibbutzes, and as such the issue is of utmost importance to the Israeli government. Additionally, Israel is committed to preventing the use and propagation of weapons of mass destruction in Syria and is willing to take action in this regard, including the use of air power and special operations. The IDF have increased the frequency and size of patrols along the Syrian border. On September 19 th, as reported by the New York Times, Israeli troops conducted a large-scale drill near the border, with thousands of soldiers, helicopter airlifts, and live-fire exercises involved. Nonetheless, Israeli defense officials denied that these operations were linked to the ongoing crisis in Syria, but still represent the readiness and conviction of the Israeli armed forces. Israel has taken steps to lessen the humanitarian impact of the crisis in Syria, particularly in border regions, as well as housing small numbers of refugees, their number limited due to security concerns. However, the IDFs chief of staff, Benny Gantz, stated in January 2012 that Israel would accept Alawite refugees in the event that their safety was compromised by a regime change in Syria. D. As the conflict is a civil war, Israel encourages a humanitarian response to the situation in Syria, as well as urging the Syrian government to cease the use of heavy weapons against civilians. Additionally, the removal of Iranian forces and a mitigation of their involvement in the conflict must occur, as the Iranian military and leadership have displayed their violently ill will towards Israel in the past, and the presence of the Iranian Republican Guard in Syria is a troubling development. The involvement of Hezbollah and other radical Islamist groups in the conflict cannot be ignored, and as such action must be taken by Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, and other nations bordering Syria to prevent these fighters from crossing into the country and compromising the security of all peoples and sovereign nations of the Middle East. Hezbollah operates between Syria and Lebanon, across the countries border with impunity, and the international community must take action to prevent these operations, whether they are unilateral military actions or coalition-based, and the risk to Israeli lives that this situation allows. Nonetheless, with regards to the conflict between Syrian citizens and the Syrian government, Israel advocates a policy of non-intervention and an emphasis on preventing the conflict from escalating further and spreading to other countries in the region, particularly our own. E. 1. What is Israels stance on foreign Islamist fighters among the ranks of the rebels? 2. Is Israel willing to collaborate militarily with the FSA? 3. In the event of NATO intervention, would Israel participate? 4. Can the impacts of the Deir-az-Zour strike be applied to chemical weapons depots in Syria? 5. How large is the presence of Iranian troops in Syria? 6. What is the stance of the FSA leadership on foreign fighters among their ranks? 7. What is Israels capacity for accepting refugees? 8. What is the stance of the Lebanese government on the issue? 9. Has the FSA made statements of policy towards Israel? 10. Is the Iranian nuclear program linked to Syria in any way?

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