Presentation at TPU October/November 2012

Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Department of Water Resources Engineering

On the importance of the word Ergo

Intro to some of fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

The Menu

The six virtues of science About the value of arguments Deduction and Induction Occams razor Bayes rule The art of making 1 + 1 = 3

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

The Six Main Virtues of Science/Rationality:

Curiosity (if you dont ask questions you will never get any answers) Scholarship (study many sciences and absorb their power as your own) Realism/Humility (to be humble is to take specific actions in anticipation of
your own errors)

Empiricism (the roots of knowledge are in observation and its fruit is prediction) Precision (better be precisely wrong than vaguely right) Argument/Rational reasoning (Normatively, any argument relies
on an evidential base which consists of supporting data whose relationship to the claim is elaborated through the warrant, which in turn, may be dependent on a set of underlying assumptions)

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Because/Therefore Karena Porque Fordi Omdat

Ergo

< Statement or Proposition > [BECAUSE] <Argument and Justification >

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Possible arguments:

The Earth is Flat as a Pancake! The Earth is Flat as a Pancake BECAUSE the pope dictates so and will kill me if I say otherwise.... The Earth is Flat as a Pancake BECAUSE I cant understand why it could be spherical.... The Earth is Flat as a Pancake BECAUSE my eyes tell me that it looks flat....

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Images of the earth how it was seen (by the catholic church) during the dark middle age (10001500 BC)...

Aristotle (384322 BC), the famous Greek natural philosopher, reports that mathematicians had allegedly evaluated the dimension of Earth at 40.000 stadia, adding: From their supposition, it follows

that the shape of Earth must be a sphere and also that its size be small relative to the distance of other celestial bodies.

Picture from a 1550 edition of On the Sphere of the World, the most influential astronomy textbook of 16th century Europe

The Earth is flat because: 1. The space agencies of the world are involved in an international conspiracy to dupe the public for vast profit 2. The impossibilities of holding unsecured objects in place on a curved surface

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

The two main approaches in modern science:

Sherlock predictions): Deduction (general theoriesHolmes (The Sign of Four):

I never guess. It is a capital inference by reasoning from generals to mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one particulars, or the process of deducing from begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories something known or assumed to suit facts.

Induction (observations general theories): the

process of inferring a general law or principle from observation of particular instances...

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Occams Razor (looking for the simplest explanation with the fewest assumptions)
"We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their "The explanation requiring the appearances" fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct" "If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

KISS...! Keep It Simple, Stupid!

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Bayes Rule (accummulating (uncertain) evidence against an (uncertain) hypothesis)

A (Hypothesis)
B (Data)

The essence of the Bayesian approach is to provide: a mathematical rule explaining how you should change your existing hypothesis in the light of new evidence. In other words, it allows scientists to combine new data with their existing knowledge or expertise

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Example: Evaluating the Posterior Probability of the hypothesis that the Earth is a sphere...
90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Likelihood of observing X given A

80%-100% 60%-80%

40%-60%
20%-40%

40% 30%
20% 10% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Prior probability of A

0%-20%

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Example: Updating the Posteria Probability with repeated/improved observations

Posteria probability that our theory (A) is true

Bayes' Rule - Opdating of Theory via Observations

100%
90% 80%

70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Experiment no

FALSIFICATION....!

P(X|A) - Likelihood of obs

P(A|X) - probability that theiry is true

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Hegels dialectical method or the principle of deduction by counter argument (towards the one and only
thruth.....)

SynThesis

SynThesis

AntiThesis

Thesis

AntiThesis

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

...sometimes it is a constructive approach:

(union set = improvement/generalisation of theory = both-and)

Space

Einsteins general relativity theory

Newtons theory the three basic laws

Einstein

Newton

Time

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

...but it does not always work (as so many theories...)

The Earth is Flat....! The Earth is spherical....!

Disjunction set: Shift in paradigm = either or

Fundamentals in the Scientific Methodology

Finale:

Science is a process of learning to know the

nature of everything in the material world, from atoms to the most complex of living organisms and inanimate objects... Science is not a Belief it is a methodology! No more, no less...

Terima Kasih

Break

Examples.....

LU-TVRL/TPU-DEE Sida PDC Innovation