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Mobile Predictions for 2013 Apple is making life more difficult for developers Amazons Kindle continues to struggle Strong start for Googles Nexus tablets
Appcelerator / IDC
Key Findings
Developer interest around the iOS and Android platforms is relatively unchanged since Q3 2012. Despite the introduction of new products in Q4 and the massive success of devices like the iPad mini, Kindle, Samsung Galaxy S III, and iPhone 5, developer interest around the popular platforms (iOS, Android, BB, etc.) remains relatively unchanged, with shifts of only two to three percentage points. Apple is making life more difficult for developers. Improved search capabilities and continued growth of the iOS community are not enough to combat the fragmentation issues that Apple has introduced with its new crop of devices (iPad mini and iPhone 5). Amazons Kindle continues to struggle for developers interest. With less than 22% of mobile application developers very interested in building mobile apps for the device, the Kindle just barely breaks into developers top 10 app targets. Strong start for Googles Nexus tablets: Googles Nexus tablets are off to a rousing start, with more than 53.8% of developers very interested in building apps for these devices. Additionally, developers think that the Nexus is a step in the right direction for Google towards fixing some of Androids issues of fragmentation and inconsistent device performance. More apps to watch for in 2013: Developers have indicated that they will be developing more mobile apps across the following consumer-facing categories: business, finance, education, medical, productivity and mobile money. Developer interest in building business-focused apps in industry, social business and office applications also increased. Mobile developers believe that a mobile-first startup could disrupt Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. We asked developers to name any companies/markets that they believe are vulnerable to being disrupted and having market share taken away from them by a mobile-first startup. The top three companies that developers perceive to be ripe for disruption are Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. Developers are dismissive about Facebooks revamped mobile strategy. Despite Facebooks release of a new native app and revised mobile strategy, 62.4% of mobile developers state it is likely to very likely that a mobile-first social startup could disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook. Facebook is one year or more away from becoming mobile-first. We asked developers how far they believe Facebook is from becoming a mobile-first company. 73.6% believe that Facebook will need a year or more before becoming mobile-first.
Nexus Rising
Developers showed strong interest in developing mobile apps for the Google Nexus platform, with fully 53.8% of them very interested. This high percentage is unprecedented, dwarfing established platforms like Windows Mobile 7 and BlackBerry, and getting quite close to interest levels in development for Android tablets more generally. In a follow-on question, we asked developers opinion of Googles entry (the Nexus tablets) into the tablet marketplace, expecting to find that Googles conflicting priorities (Android platform penetration vs. Nexus device sales) would negatively impact both developer interest and device adoption. However, developers believe that Google is showing strong leadership and establishing with the Nexus a reference architecture for other Android tablet manufacturers to follow. 66.6% of developers feel positive about Googles entry into the tablet marketplace
and believe the company provided leadership for Android tablets in general. This jibes with 53.8% of those developers being interested in developing specifically for the Nexus. 35.1% of developers believe that with Nexus, Google is taking a leadership position, and 31.5% believe that other Android tablet manufacturers should look to the Nexus as a reference architecture moving forward. We interpret this as positive developer sentiment towards Googles taking an increasingly direct role in Android development; developers view it as a good move by Google, one that potentially gives the company the ability to curtail much of the fragmentation continually cited as causing the majority of Android issues. Less than 8% of developers view Googles production of the Nexus negatively, or believe that it will negatively affect other Android tablet manufacturers.
Perhaps even more telling are the 45% of developers who remain unimpressed with the hardware and dont believe it has much advantage over the tablets already on the market. It is also telling that still only 35% of developers are very interested in building applications for the platform, which is relatively consistent with the past two quarters despite the fact that Windows hardware is now actually in developers hands.
very likely that most people will own a smart-enabled device (e.g. refrigerator, car, etc.), not just a phone or tablet. Augmented reality takes off. 63.5% of mobile developers believe that augmented reality on mobile will grow exponentially and be commonplace across devices in 2013. This further emphasizes the value proposition of building superior native experiences across devices and platforms.
Movers and Shakers: Types of Apps that are on the Rise vs Decline in 2013
We ask our developers every quarter about the categories of consumer vs business apps that they plan to develop. We have benchmarked their responses in order to report on the categories with the greatest increase or decrease in developer interest over time. Between Q4 2010 and Q4 2012, the greatest increase in developer interest for consumer-facing apps occurred in the following categories: Business (20.3% increase since Q410), Finance (8.2% increase since Q410), Education (8.1% since Q410), Medical (8% increase since Q410), Productivity (7.8% increase since Q410) and Mobile Money (6.6% increase since Q410). During 2013, consumers should expect to see more of these types of mobile apps. Between Q4 2010 and Q4 2012, the greatest decrease in developer interest for consumer-facing apps occurred in the following categories: Social networking (9.7% decrease since Q410) and Entertainment (7.4% decrease since Q410). Between Q2 2011 and Q4 2012, the greatest increase in developer interest for business-focused apps occurred in the following categories: Industry (6.9% increase since Q211), Social Business (4.8% increase since Q211) and Office Applications (3.9% increase since Q211). Finally, Collaboration business apps are the only business category that saw a decrease (5.1% decrease since Q211).
62.4% of mobile developers still believe that it is likely to very likely that a mobile-first social startup could disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook. This emphasizes that a transformative mobile strategy is not just about an improved mobile app. The real threat to Facebook is from a startup that is able to re-imagine social from the ground up for mobile. Facebook, and all other businesses that did not develop with mobile as their primary focus, need to realize that mobile transformation will not occur from simply porting elements of their existing desktop-optimized business model over to mobile. Mobile-first startups, such as
Instagram, were able to get rapid adoption in mobile by delivering social-specific activities built with an exclusive focus on the needs of the mobile user. Despite Facebooks recent push to revitalize its mobile strategy in order to emerge as a steadily growing business after its disastrous IPO, mobile developers are not optimistic about Facebooks prospects. We probed further and asked developers how far they believe Facebook is from becoming a mobile-first company. 73.6% of mobile developers surveyed believe that Facebook will need a year or more to reach that goal. Requiring more than one year of investment is risky in a market that is innovating at the speed of mobile (lets not forget that four years ago, the iPad did not even exist!). This finding highlights the magnitude of the job of becoming a mobile-first enterprise for those companies that did not grow up thinking about their mobile audience as a priority. Competitive pressures are so great in mobile that companies realize they need to re-imagine their business from a mobile-first viewpoint across multiple devices, platforms, and operating systems. The length of time it took Facebook to release just a single native iOS app, coupled with the fact that a corresponding native Android app is still MIA, has proven that the company does not yet have a viable cross-platform mobile strategy. Facebook is not able to deliver the superior user experiences that their users are expecting across all the devices they are using. Developers are underscoring increasing trouble ahead for Facebook. They do not see it poised to deliver the substantial level of growth from mobile that the beleaguered social giant needs to rejuvenate its stock.
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About Appcelerator
Appcelerator is the leading mobile development platform of choice for thousands of enterprises including eBay, Merck, Mitsubishi Electric, NBC, PayPal and Ray-Ban, as they become mobile-first organizations. With more than 50,000 mobile applications deployed on 90 million devices, Appcelerators award-winning open source development platform, Titanium, and Appcelerator Cloud Services are used to create native apps across multiple devices including iOS, Android, Windows and BlackBerry, as well as hybrid and HTML5 mobile web. Customers who standardize on Appcelerators solutions get to market 70 percent faster and achieve a significant competitive advantage. Appcelerators worldwide ecosystem includes 390,000 mobile developers and hundreds of ISVs and strategic partners including SAP and Cognizant. For more information visit www.appcelerator.com
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 46 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the worlds leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com
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Report Inquiries:
Michael King
Director of Enterprise Strategy - Appcelerator mking@appcelerator.com Office: 650-528-2961
John Jackson
Research Vice President Mobile & Connected Platforms- IDC jjackson@idc.com Office: 508-935-4255
Media Inquiries:
Jill Asher Director of Public Relations - Appcelerator jasher@appcelerator.com Office: 650-200-4255
Michael Shirer
IDC press@idc.com Office: 508-935-4200
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