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APPLYING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY VALUATION MODEL TO COCA-COLA

John C. Gardner, University of New Orleans Carl B. McGowan, Jr., Norfolk State University Susan E. Moeller, Eastern Michigan University
ABSTRACT In this paper we provide a detailed example of applying the free cash flow to equity valuation model proposed in Damodaran (2006). Damodaran (2006) argues that the value of a stock is the discounted present value of the future free cash flow to equity discounted at the cost of equity. We combine the free cash flow to equity model with the super-normal growth model to determine the current value of Coca-Cola. In addition to computing free cash flow to equity, we show how to calculate the sustainable growth rate, the long term growth rate, beta, and the cost of equity. Free Cash Flow to Equity In this paper, we combine the concept of the super-normal growth rate model of stock valuation with the Free Cash Flow to Equity model from Damodaran (2006, pp. 491-493) (See Damodaran, Aswath. Applied Corporate Finance, Second Edition, John Wiley& Sons, Inc., 2006). The FCFE model defines FCFE as net income minus net capital expenditures minus the change is working capital and plus net changes in the long-term debt position. Net income is taken from the income statement. Net capital expenditure equals capital expenditures minus depreciation both taken from the statement of cash flows. The change in working capital is the difference of accounts receivable plus inventory from one year to the next less the difference in accounts payable from one year to the next. FCFE = NI (CE-D) (WC) + (NDI-DR) FCFE = Free Cash Flow to Equity (CE-D) = Net Capital Expenditures (WC) = Changes in non-cash working capital accounts: accounts receivable, inventory, payables (NDI-DR) = new debt issues are a cash inflow while the repayment of outstanding debt is a cash outflow. The difference is the net effect of debt financing on cash flow. NI Net Income CE Capital Expenditure D - Depreciation WC Change in Working Capital NDI New Debt Issued DR Debt Retired

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Computing Free Cash Flow to Equity for Coca-Cola for 2000 to 2007 The following table shows the computation of FCFE for Coca-Cola for the period from 2000 to 2007. Net income is taken from the income statement and depreciation is taken from the Statement of Cash Flows. Capital expenditure is the difference between purchases of Property, Plant, and Equipment and depreciation. The change is working capital for each year is calculated by taking the difference in each of the working capital accounts for each year from 1999 to 2007. The working capital accounts are accounts receivable, inventory, and accounts payable and the change in working capital is defined at the net change in accounts receivable plus inventory minus accounts payable. When net income, depreciation, capital expenditure and the change in working capital are combined we have FCFE before changes in debt. Net cash flow from debt equals new debt financing minus old debt retirement which is added to FCFE before debt to compute FCFE after debt.
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 NI 2177 3969 3050 4347 4847 4872 5080 5981 Depr 773 803 806 850 893 932 938 1163 Cap Exp -678 -678 -782 -725 -414 -811 -1295 -1409 WC 242 -340 -441 414 24 49 39 551 FCFE(BD) 2514 3754 2633 4886 5350 5042 4762 6286 NCFFD -1939 -1039 -1340 -1435 168 -4107 -3672 4122 FCFE(AD) 575 2715 1293 3451 5518 935 1090 10408

The Free Cash Flow to Equity for 2007 is $10,408 million. However, because Free Cash Flow to Equity for Coca-Cola over the period from 2000 to 2007 is volatile, we use the average value for the period from 2000 to 2007 of $3,248 million to estimate the future values of Free Cash Flow to Equity for the five year super-normal growth period assumed in the following table.
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 FCFE 3684 4179 4740 5377 PV(FCFE) 3347 3449 3554 3662

2012 6099 3773 Year Projected Free Cash Flow to Equity for Years 2008 to 2012, assuming a growth rate of 13.43%. Present value of FCFE for years 2008 to 2012 discounted at the required rate of return for equity for Coca-Cola.

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The projected Free Cash Flow to Equity for year 2013 is $6,504 million. The terminal value for year 2012 is $188,509 million which is equal to $6,504 million divided by the required rate of return, 10.08% minus the anticipated growth rate of 6.63% and equals $116,625 million.
Year 2013 FCFE $6,504 P5 $188,509 PV(FCFE) $116,625

Thus, the current value of Coca-Cola is the sum of the five anticipate Free Cash Flow to Equity plus the present value of the value of the firm at time t=5. The discounted present value of the Free Cash Flow to Equity for the super-normal growth period for the five years from 2008 to 2012 is $ 21,502 million and the present value of the terminal value is $106,165. The total value of Coca-Cola is $129,643 million.
$17,875 $116,625 $134,410 PV(FCFE) PV(terminal value) Total value

When we value a stock that has a period of super-normal growth, that value of the equity is the discounted present value of the expected free cash flow to equity during the super-normal growth period plus the terminal value of the stock at the end of the super-normal growth period. In the case of the KO valuation, I assume that the super-normal growth period will last five years. This is standard in the valuation industry. Projections beyond five years are very uncertain. The value of the stock at the end of the super-normal growth period is the discounted present value of all of the future free cash flow to equity and is computed from the P0 = FCFE1/(k-g). The difference is that the present value of a share of stock at time=t is equal to the anticipated free cash flow to equity at time=(t+1). Beginning with time=(t+1), the investment returns to the long-term growth rate with both k and g becoming constant and k being strictly greater than b. Since we are using a supernormal growth period of five years, the terminal value of the stock is P5 = FCFE6/(k-g). The value of P5 is five years into the future and must be discounted to the present using the cost of equity. FCFE6 P5 = = = = = = = = = = FCFE5(1+g)1 $6,504 (1+.0663)1 $6,504 FCFE6/(k-g) $6,504/(0.1208-0.0663) $6,504/(0.0345) $134,410 P5/(1+k)5 $134,410/(1+.1008)5 $116,625
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PV(P5)

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Summary and Conclusions In this paper, we have combined the concepts of equity valuation, super-normal growth, required rate of return on equity, and sustainable growth to determine the long-term value of CocaCola Corporation (KO). The value of the equity of a firm is defined as the present value of all future cash flows from the firm to the shareholders. The value of the firm is FCFE divided by the sum of the required rate of return for equity minus the growth rate of the firms earnings. Free Cash Flow to Equity is defined as net income minus net capital expenditures minus the change in net working capital plus the net change in long-term debt financing. The required rate of return for equity is computed using the CAPM using a five-year monthly rate of return beta relative to the S&P500 index. Sustainable growth for the super-normal growth period is computed with the extended DuPont model. The long-term growth rate is assumed to be the same as the growth rate of the economy. The table in Appendix C shows the results of this analysis. REFERENCES
Brigham, Eugene F. and Michael C. Ehrhardt. Financial Management, Theory and Practice, Twelth Edition, Thomson/Southwestern, Mason, OH, 2008. Damodaran, Aswath. Applied Corporate Finance, Second Edition, John Wiley& Sons, Inc., 2006. Graham, John R. and Campbell R. Harvey. The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence form the Field, Journal of Financial Economics, 2002, pp. 187-243. http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1990/press.html Ross, Stephen A., Randolph W. Westerfield, and Bradford D. Jordan. Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, Eighth Edition, McGraw-Hill Irwin, New York, 2008. William R. Sharpe, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, The Journal of Finance, September 1964, pp. 425-552. Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation, Market Results for 1926 -2006, 2007 Yearbook, Classic Edition, Morningstar, 2007.

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Appendix 1 Calculating the Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity for Coca-Cola
FCFE0 RROR g g* Years $3,914 9.96% 5.50% 13.43% 5

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

FCFEt $3,914 4,440 5,036 5,712 6,479 7,349 7,754

PV(FCFEt)

4,037 4,165 4,296 4,432 4,572

PV5

169,291

PV(P5)

104,735

FCFE0 FCFEt

FCFE6

PV0 $126,165 Free cash flow to equity at time zero. FCFE is used as the initial cash flow, FCFE0. The Free Cash Flow to Equity at each year in the future. FCFE1 to FCFE5 grow at the super-normal growth rate. We use a super-normal growth rate of 13.43% which is the average growth rate for Coca-Cola over the companys life. The Free Cash Flow to Equity in the sixth year grows over the Free Cash Flow to Equity in year five by the long-term real growth rate of GDP, 3.6%. Assume that in the long-term, all large firms grow at the GDP growth rate.

RROR The required rate of return is derived from the CAPM and is 10.08%.

Proceedings of the Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies, Volume 14, Number 1

New Orleans, 2009