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Background Brief: South China Sea Issues at the 21st ASEAN Summit Carlyle A. Thayer November 19, 2012

[client name deleted] Regarding the South China Sea, yesterday, a Cambodian Minister of Foreign Affairs official said in a press conference that ASEAN leaders had decided not to "internationalize" the South China Sea issue, and that it will be focused on the existing ASEAN-China mechanisms. Philippines Secretary Del Rosario stated that this was not the case and there was no agreement on this issue. He said it was a "misunderstanding" and they had cleared it up with the foreign ministers and the chairman during today's meetings. A press statement was released later in the day from the Philippines delegate about it. The Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs official stuck to the story, which was that was what the leaders had agreed on, and that it was the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib who raised the issue during yesterday's meetings. What is your assessment of the following: 1) Is this yet another example of Cambodia taking a unilateral step as the chair to represent the views of ASEAN as a whole which does not have consensus? Can you comment on why such a "misunderstanding" were to occur, given how vocal and clear the Philippines has been about their stance on the South China Sea issue? ANSWER: This does appear to be another example of Cambodia trying to pursue its single minded policy of not giving any offense to China. Cambodia has some leeway as ASEAN Chair but the friction in July appears to be hanging over present deliberations. Cambodia is also taking advantage of the fact that not all ASEAN countries are happy with the Philippines. 2) Cambodia also received a pledge of more than $50 million in aid last night from Premier Wen Jiabao -- this was a closed-door meeting held last night. Do you think it is appropriate for China to pledge such a large sum of money to Cambodia in the middle of the ASEAN Summit, given China's conflict of interest in the SCS issue? And also, given how Cambodia has been viewed as beholden to China? ANSWER: What else is new? China gave aid prior to the April ASEAN Summit as well. It is not appropriate but Chinese aid is also designed to upstage any initiative President Obama might offer.

2 3) The press statement from the Philippines mentioned that "at least one other country" was in agreement with Philippines on the internationalization of the issue. My sources have informed me that it was a claimant state, and "not Malaysia," leaving Vietnam and Brunei. Would you be able to comment on these two countries' interest in wanting to see the issue internationalized? ANSWER: The "other country" has to be Vietnam. It has always stood behind the Philippines offering support. Brunei has cultivated silence as a virtue. It will be assuming the ASEAN Chair and is doubly circumspect 4) How possible do you think that it was Prime Minister Najib that suggested this? ANSWER: In late August a Petronas survey ship was approached by a China Marine Surveillance patrol vessel and asked if it had sought permission from Beijing to explore for oil. The Petronas ship was operating within Malaysia's Exclusive Economic Zone but also in waters within China's nine-dash line. Malaysia prefers to keep the South China Sea issue within ASEAN and play a deferential role to China. 5) In addition, this "misunderstanding" resulted during a discussion about ASEAN unity. Can you comment on the lack of unity between the countries? ANSWER: The appearance of rifts with ASEAN at present to not augur well for the creation of an ASEAN Community by 2015, including an ASEAN Political-Security Community. China has has exacerbated fissures within ASEAN. ASEAN is now divided into three groupings: the mainland states (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand ad Myanmar) that are not involved in South China Sea disputes and who want good relations with China; the four littoral states divided into two sub-categories - Vietnam and the Philippines and Malaysia and Brunei; and the maritime states - Indonesia and Singapore. China has been careful not to antagonize too many of the littor states at once. 6) How appropriate is it for Cambodia to give such a statement that clearly does not have consensus? The Philippines just issued a statement today rejecting Cambodia's press conference yesterday. ANSWER: The ASEAN Chair has some leeway. But the rancor between Cambodia and Philippines has reached new heights. This has led several of the major actors, such as Indonesia, to distance themselves and apply pressure on both to "chill out." Cambodia's actions only serves to undermine the ASEAN Chair as an office. 7) There was a Japan- Asean Summit today, and Prime Minister Noda raised the issue of the South China SEa. Obviously, he is having his own maritime issues with China currently. How can the events of the South China Sea be relevant/parallel to the Senkaku Islands? ANSWER: Maritime security, international law, and the UN Convention on Law of the Sea are equally applicable throughout the global maritime commons. Whatever precedent is set in the South China Sea can be applied to the East Sea. Japan is a maritime country and like the US and Australia, has interests that extend across East Asia to the Indian Ocean. Japan does not want to see its legal claims to sovereignty and freedom of navigation undermined by Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea Issues at the 21st ASEAN Summit, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 19, 2012.