Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief: ASEANs 21st Summit: Scene Setter Carlyle A. Thayer November 14, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. What to look for at the ASEAN Summit? ANSWER: The approval of a Vietnamese career diplomat as the next Secretary General. The leaders response to the inter-governmental Human Rights body and its terms of reference - will they be delayed for further inputs or adopted? Key objectives adopted to support the goal of becoming an ASEAN Community by 2015. I would look at priorities set for the ASEAN Political-Security Community. And of course, how the leaders handle the South China Sea. Will they exhibit any frustration over the slow going diplomatic talks with China? How hard will they push for an early adoption of the code of conduct? Q2. Will the leaders address the Rohingya situation in Myanmar? ANSWER: The ASEAN Foreign Ministers adopted 4 points that Myanmar declined saying it was an internal issue. Will ASEAN and/or the Secretary General continue to play a proactive role? This ASEAN summit will act on recommendations for the last ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. Although there was no joint communique there was an internal record of consensus reached. Will any action be taken to prevent ASEAN from failing to issue a joint communique again? I really do not expect something unexpected but a steady continuation of progress across a number of fronts. But the question of China and the South China Sea remains central for ASEAN.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN 21st Summit: Scene Setter, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October , 2012. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived and may be accessed at: http://www.scribd.com/carlthayer.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief: ASEAN and East Asia Summits: Scene Setter Carlyle A. Thayer November 17, 2012

Regarding the 21st ASEAN and 7th East Asia summits to be held in Phnom Penh from November 18-20, could you provide your assessment of the following: - Which issues do you expect will dominate the ASEAN talks and the wider East Asia talks (sea disputes, Myanmar unrest)? ANSWER: ASEAN leaders will be focused on a full range of issues, reaching the ASEAN Community by 2015 and ASEAN connectivity should dominate. But the South China Sea issue will surface because the Philippines cannot afford to leave it alone and because Indonesia has invested too much prestige to see it dissipate. ASEAN foreign ministers drew up a four point plan for Myanmar that was rebuffed. I also think regional security architecture and Code of Conduct will be important issues. - Do you think those nations embroiled in maritime rows with Beijing will be even more on edge after China stressed last week it intends to become a maritime power? What progress, if any, do you expect on the Code of Conduct? ANSWER: Most of Southeast Asia is concerned about the China-Japan spat over the Senkakus and how the two are dealing with this issue. Ructions among the major powers will have a negative impact on economic prospects. The US will emphasis its rebalancing to counter China and this will reassure them. It seem that the framework for a Code of Conduct has been extended out with hopes it can be achieved by 2015, when the ASEAN Community is created if not sooner. Nothing tangible will emerge - What is the message Southeast Asian nations want to hear from Obama on the sea issues, and is he likely to tell them what they want to hear? ANSWER: Southeast Asians want to hear more of the same: that the US backs a peaceful resolution of the territorial disputes and that the US will support ASEAN and not take the lead. They will want to be reassured they are not being led down the path of containing China. They will want to hear Obama reaffirm US engagement with China. They will also want non provocative reassurance that the US will balance an assertive China. - How do you think Cambodia will handle the South China Sea topic this time around after the July debacle where the bloc failed to issue a joint statement? Can we expect Cambodia to pander less to China and be more flexible this time? Or has nothing changed?

2 ANSWER: The game has changed with a summit of heads of government and state rather than foreign ministers. The dynamics have changed; it is not the Philippines and Vietnam pressing for inclusion of their concerns, it will be Indonesia showing leadership behind a unified ASEAN position that is less confrontational. I think Cambodia will go with the flow on this one. The Philippines may voice it concerns but it too will back Indonesia. The bottom line is that no party wants to return to July.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN and East Asia Summits: Scene Setter, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 17, 2012.