Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| December 12, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| December 12, 2012

Highlights
U.S. trade deficit rose to $42.2 billion in October. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rise to 6.9 levels in December. Japans Core Machinery Orders in October increased 2.6 percent. ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 7.6 levels in December. Japans Tertiary Industry Activity in October fell by -0.1 percent.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
99.82 0.0 5898.8 19387.1 13248.44

as on December 11, 2012 Prev. day

-0.2 -0.1 0.6

WoW
0.2 0.2 2.3

MoM
3.8 3.8 3.4

YoY
23.8 22.2 10.2

Asian markets are trading on a firm note on optimism that US Federal reserve in its policy meeting today might announce further stimulus package to boost the economy. U.S. trade deficit rose by 4.9 percent to $42.2 billion in the month of October as against $40.3 billion in the month of September. Exports of goods fell larger by 3.6 percent to $180.5 billion as compared to imports. Imports of goods declined 2.8 percent to $222.8 billion. US Investor's Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) economic optimism fell to 45.1 levels in the month of December as against 48.6 levels in November.

1427.8
15585.6 1964.6 59623.3 9525.3 85.93 1709.20 3289.00 8088.00

0.7
1.5 0.4 5.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -0.6

1.5
-2.8 1.5 3.6 -0.1 -2.9 0.9 0.5 0.7

3.5
3.1 3.4 4.5 9.8 0.4 -1.2 1.2 5.7

13.8
4.6 3.4 4.0 10.1 -12.1 2.7 6.3 6.2

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.4 percent lower on Monday. The index traded in the negative territory due to rise in the risk appetite of the market participants on optimism that US Federal Reserve in its policy meeting scheduled on December 12 might announce stimulus package to boost the economy. Further, with rise in the German investor confidence strength in the Euro exerted downside pressure on the currency. US equities continued to add to the gains of the precious day taking cues from firm global market sentiments resulting from hopes of further stimulus package to boost the economy. Expectations that the US law makers might be able to arrive at a solution on fiscal cliff also supported the equities. However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable economic data from the nation. The index touched an intra-day low of 80.27 and closed at 80.05 on Tuesday.

0.0

0.2

-2.4

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Dec12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Dec12 Futures (MCX-SX)
80.05 54.26

as on December 11, 2012 Prev. day

-0.4 0.1

WoW
0.5 0.9

MoM
-1.3 1.1

YoY
0.6 -3.1

54.48 54.48

-0.39 -0.38

-0.76 -0.75

-0.66 -0.66

4.26 4.27

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated on Tuesday. The Rupee appreciated due to selling of dollars by the exporters. Weakness in the US Dollar Index caused sell off in the dollars. Apart from the above factors rupee also gained strength due to inflows from the Initial Public Offering of Bharti Infratel and share sale from NDMC. The rupee closed at 54.26 after touching a high 54.25 on Tuesday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 7,530.90 crores till 11th December 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at th Rs. 1,10,803.00 crores till December 11 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of firm Asian markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Domestic market sentiments might also be determined by the IIP data to be released during the day. Positive data is likely to appreciate the Indian rupee.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Dec12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for December 12, 2012 Support 54.35/54.20 Resistance 54.60/54.75

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| December 12, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro gained 0.5 percent on account of positive market sentiments resulting from successful Greece debt buyback target in yesterdays session. Further, with achievement of the target it would be able to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund and European Union. This in turn might curtail the debt concerns of the region. Additionally, favorable German investor confidence data also supported an upside in the currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.2946 and closed at 1.3004 on Tuesday. German ZEW Economic Sentiment gained to 6.9 levels in the month of December as compared to a decline of -15.7 points in the November. It rose on the expectations that the economy might recover in the later part of the year. ZEW Economic Sentiment of the Euro region also climbed to 7.6 levels in the month of December as compared to a decline of -2.6 levels in November. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate taking cues from successful debt buyback of the Greece making it eligible to seek aid. This might reduce the debt concerns of the Euro zone region. Additionally weakness in the DX is also expected to support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Dec12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.41/70.20 70.71/70.90

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Dec 12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Dec12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.3004 70.55

as on December 11, 2012 Prev. day

0.5 -0.3

WoW
-0.7 1.4

MoM
2.3 -0.9

YoY
-1.4 #N/A

70.59 70.6

0.01 0.01

-1.55 -1.56

1.25 1.27

0.76 0.76

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

valid for December 12, 2012 Support Resistance

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot)
1.6114

as on December 11, 2012

Prev. day
0.2

WoW
0.1

MoM
1.5

YoY
3.4

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unfavorable economic data from the country. It touched an intra-day high of 1.6122 and closed at 1.6114 on Tuesday. UKs Conference Board (CB) declined by 0.4 percent in October as compared to rise of 0.2 percent a month ago. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Pound to appreciate on the back of positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, unfavorable economic data from the nation is expected to cap appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Dec 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for December 12, 2012 Support 87.40/87.25 Resistance 87.70/87.90

87.493 87.56

0.18 -0.21

-0.71 -0.94

0.83 0.16

7.72 6.82

GBP / INR Dec12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Dec 12 Futures (MCX-SX)

87.56

-0.18

-0.96

0.15

6.80

Source: Reuters

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| December 12, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day low of 82.57 and closed at 82.51 on Tuesday. Japans Core Machinery Orders rose by 2.6 percent in October as against a previous decline of 4.3 percent a month ago. Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 0.1 percent in October from earlier rise of 0.2 percent in prior month. Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) declined by 0.9 percent in November as compared to previous fall of 1 percent in October. Outlook In todays session, we expect to yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will reduce the demand for the low yielding currency. However, favorable data from the nation is expected to cap depreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Dec 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for December 12, 2012 Support 65.85/65.70 Resistance 66.20/66.50
Source: Telequote

as on December 11, 2012 Last Prev day

0.2

WoW
0.8

MoM
3.8

YoY
5.9

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.51

0.6578 66.01 66.00

-0.26 -0.79 -0.80

-1.60 -4.57 -1.31

-4.19 -4.57 -4.58

-1.63 -1.84 -1.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on December 12, 2012

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m Tertiary Industry Activity m/m ECOFIN Meetings Claimant Count Change Unemployment Rate Industrial Production m/m MPC Member Dale Speaks Import Prices m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate Country JPY JPY EUR GBP GBP EUR GBP US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am All day 3:00 pm 3:00 pm 3:30 pm 4:15 p.m 7:00 pm 9:00 pm 10:00 pm 11:00 pm 11:00 pm <0.25% <0.25% -0.4% -2.6M 0.5% -2.4M 1.68|2.6 5.9K 7.9% 0.3% 10.1K 7.8% -2.5% Actual 2.6% -0.1% Forecast 3.1% -0.3% Previous -4.3% 0.2% Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium

www.angelbroking.com