Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mangi Altaee
Lesson Outcomes
To explain the reserve estimation by DCA.
To describe the three types of decline curves To apply the decline curve analysis for reserve
estimation
RESERVES ESTIMATION
"reserves" means different things to different people. To the banker the amount of capital retained to meet probable future demands. To the oil and gas operator the volumes of crude oil, natural gas, and associated products that can be recovered profitably in the future from subsurface reservoirs.
Who are the people in the industry interested to know about reserves?
companies and individuals responsible for E&P and operation of oil and gas properties buyers and sellers of oil and gas properties
banks and other financial institutions involved in the financing exploration, development, or purchase of oil and gas properties agencies with regulatory or taxation authority over oil and gas operators
investors in oil and gas companies
Reserve estimation It is an on-going activity during exploration, development planning, and during production.
Classification of Reserves
Proven reserves
discovered reserves that can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be recoverable under current economic conditions, technical conditions and government regulations.
Unproven reserves those reserves that are based on data similar to that used in the estimation of proven reserves but technical, contractual, economic or regulatory uncertainties prevent these reserves from being classified as proven.
Proven reserves:
1. 2. Developed reserves are expected to be recovered from existing wells Undeveloped reserves are to be recovered from new wells in undrilled acreage, deepening wells to different reservoirs
Unproven reserves:
1. 2. Probable reserves are those that have a reasonable probability of production with technology and profitablity close to those exist today Possible reserves are those that are not yet discovered, but whose existence is presumed with reasonable degree of probability.
Where production and reservoir data are limited and there are no analogus reservoirs in the immediate vicinity.
Where production and reservoir data are limited and the estimate is not supported by volumetric determinations.
1.
Developed reserves are reserves expected to be recovered from existing wells including reserves behind pipe.
Producing reserves are reserves to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of estimate and producing to market. Nonproducing reserves include shut-in and behind-pipe reserves. Shut-in reserves are expected to be recovered completion intervals open at the time of the estimate, but which have not started producing, or were shut in for market conditions of pipeline connections, or were not capable of production for mechanical reasons and the time when sales start is uncertain. Behind-pipe reserves are expected to be recovered from zones behind casing in existing wells, which will require additional completion work or a future recompletion prior to start of production.
2.
3.
2. Volumetric calculations Well been drilled/ log analysis/ information obtained/ drainage area Subsurface contour map
4. Model study/ Reservoir simulation apply MBE/ reservoir broken up into small parts or discreet elements.
declining production rates and forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells. Decline curve analysis is a basic tool for estimating recoverable reserves. Conventional or basic decline curve analysis can be used only when the production history is long enough that a trend can be identified. Decline curves represent production from the reservoir under "boundary dominated flow" conditions. This means that during the early life of a well, while it is still in "transient flow" and the reservoir boundaries have not been reached, decline curves should NOT be expected to be applicable
Three types of decline curves have been identified; exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic It is implicitly assumed, when using decline curve analysis, the factors causing the historical decline continue unchanged during the forecast period. These factors include both reservoir conditions and operating conditions.
Operating Conditions
separator pressure, tubing size,
drive mechanism,
reservoir characteristics, saturation changes, and relative permeability
choke setting,
workovers, compression, operating hours, and artificial lift
The rate is constant during the early life of the well. Thereafter, as the reservoir pressure is reduced, the rate begins to decline.
In situations where the ultimate production rate is controlled by the amount of water production. When the value of the oil produced = the cost of disposing of the produced water, we have reached the point of abandonment.
OWC vs Cumulative Production In bottom-water drive fields, we might plot the location of the oilwater contact in the formation against cumulative oil production. As the OWC reaches the top of the sand, we know that we have recovered the crude reserves for this well
Reserve: cumulative production when OWC reaches to the top of the oil sand
This plot is useful in cases where we know the expected total gas to be produced.
This information provides an indication as to when the well will reach its abandonment point.
Pressure build-up tests or observation well data are used for this plot.
The relationship is from the application of the gas law to a fixed volume container & Material Balance Equation (MBE).
The minimum producing rate is determined by the back-pressure imposed on the well with or without surface compression.
When the value or this limiting back-pressure is converted to a value or average reservoir pressure, Pavg, divided by z and plotted against cumulative production,
An estimate of the ultimate predicable gas reserves may be obtained
Production rate is by far the most popular dependent It has the advantage of being readily available and easily recorded. The production rate curves normally show a fairly smoothly declining trend over extended periods when no major changes in operating procedures are made and no stimulation treatments are applied. The economic limit production rate When a production rate at which a well or field begins to lose money if production continues. If we incorporate this value into our rate versus time and rate versus cumulative production curves, we can extrapolate each trend line to this cut-off point. We can determine the number of years the well or field will produce profitably and the cumulative production at the time of abandonment.
Where qt = production rate at time t qi = initial production rate stb/day t = time, days Di = initial decline rate, day 1 b = Arps decline-curve exponent
Exponential Decline
- the simplest type also known as constant percentage decline q = qi e-Dt where, q producing rate at time t qi initial rate, stb/day D nominal decline fraction, 1/day t time, days
Log Rate
time not necessarily expressed in day. Any unit is acceptable provided that other units must be consistent. Conversion to other units can be done:
D1t1 = D2t2
note!!!: Dt term must be dimensionless Re-expressing the Exponential Decline Curve in terms of nominal decline fraction, D or time, t
q = qi e-Dt D = -[ln(q/qi)]/t t = -[ln(q/qi)]/D (1) (2) (3)
Exponential decline
qdt
(4)
= (qi - q)/D
Equation (4) can also be used to determine the nominal decline fraction, D from the given production data.
D = (qi - q)/ Np (5)
Example 1
A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on exponential decline. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production.
Solution q = qi e-Dt or t = -[ln(q/qi)] /D
given: Np = 70,000 stb and q = 5 stb, therefore need to find D? D = (qi - q)/ Np D 1 t 1 = D 2t 2 D1 = [D2t2]/t1 = (0.001357 per day)(365 days)/(1 year) = 0.4954 per year t = -[ln(q/qi)] /D = - [ln(5/100)]/ 0.4954 = (100 - 5)stb per day / 70,000 stb = 0.001357 /day
= 6.05 years
Rate (stb/day) 100.00 60.93 37.13 22.62 13.78 8.40 5.12 4.99
Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 28,789 28,789 46,332 17,542 57,021 10,689 63,534 6,513 67,502 3,969 69,920 2,418 70,013 92
[100-60.93]/ 0.001357
=28,789 - 0
2. Hyperbolic Decline
predicts a longer well life than is predicted by the exponential decline model.
q = qi [1 + bDit]1/b where, b hyperbolic exponent . The value ranges from 0 to 1 Di initial nominal decline fraction, 1/time
t = [(qi/q)b - 1] /(Dib)
integration of Di to obtain cumulative oil production Di = {qib/[(1 - b) Np]} [qi1-b - q1-b]
Example 2
A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on hyperbolic decline with an exponent of 0.5. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production. Solution
Di = {qib/[(1 - b) Np]} [qi1-b - q1-b] ={1000.5/[(1 - 0.5)(70,000)]} {1001 - 0.5 - - 51 - 0.5}
= 0.002218/day
= 0.8097/year
Rate (stb/day) 100.00 50.67 30.54 20.39 14.58 10.94 8.51 6.80 5.57 5.00
Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 25,983 25,983 40,341 14,358 49,450 9,109 55,743 6,293 60,352 4,609 63,872 3,520 66,649 2,777 68,896 2,247 70,005 1,109
[(1000.5)/((1- 0.5)0.002218)] [(100(1-0.5) - 50.67(10.5)]
3. Harmonic Decline
uncommon
predict longer time for recovery (i.e than exponential or hyperbolic) a special case of hyperbolic decline (exponent, b = 1)
Flow rate, q = qi Time, [1 + Dit] qi Cumulative Production, Np = ln Di t = qi q -1
(production)
qi q
Di
(Integration of rate, q)
qi Di = ln Np
qi q
Example 3
A well is expected to produce 70 Mstb recoverable reserves and will be on harmonic decline. The initial rate is estimated to be 100 stb/day and the abandonment rate in this region is 5 stb/day. How long will the well last? Determine its annual production.
Solutionq
Di =
ln Np
qi
t =
qi
-1
Di
Rate (stb/day) 100.00 39.06 24.27 17.61 13.81 11.36 9.65 8.39 7.42 6.65 6.02 5.51 5.07 5.01
Production Cumulative Annual (stb) (stb) 0 0 21,963 21,963 33,081 11,118 40,583 7,502 46,253 5,670 50,812 4,559 54,625 3,813 57,902 3,277 60,776 2,874 63,334 2,559 65,640 2,306 67,739 2,099 69,664 1,926 69,958 294
=[100/0.00428] x ln(100/39.06)
exponential
hyperbolic
harmonic