Proposal on Adaptation Agricultural Crop and Innovative Farming Practices in the Southwest Coastal Region of Bangladesh 1.

Introduction The impact of Global Climate Change on agriculture has been studied extensively for various crops at many different scales in various countries of the world. Available reports show that the tropical and subtropical countries would be more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global warming. Bangladesh is likely to be one of the worst hit countries of the globe, being an Asian as well as a Third World country. Bangladesh is facing serious threat due to various extreme climatic events (such as floods, drought, cyclone, storm surges, salinity etc.) and will face adverse impacts of global climate change. The current forecasting scenario by the IPCC indicates that Bangladesh is subject to increase of severe and frequent floods, drought, water stress, cyclone, storm surges and salinity intrusion, which are attributable to climate change. Any sea level rise due to global warming and climate change will inundate large parts of the low lying coastal region of the country and increase water logging affecting the agriculture, food security, livelihoods, human settlement, health, energy supply and basic services of rural communities. The adverse impacts of climate change will affect the resource bases, production systems, infrastructure, livelihood strategies of the common people, particularly the poor and marginal groups and make them vulnerable in future. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries of the world and over 50% of the population lives in poverty. Millions of the poor and marginal people depend mainly on agriculture, natural resources and eco-systemic services. The possible climate change will affect the agriculture, production systems, resources base and destabilize the ecosystems affecting the poor and marginal groups of people. Thus the adverse impacts of climate change will limit achieving the UN-MDGs in Bangladesh.

The variability of climate changes has become challenging issues to agriculture due to global warming. Agricultural crops of Bangladesh are specially sensitized different variables of climates such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc and as well as different natural

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disaster like flood, drought, salinity and storm surges etc. Therefore, adaptation measures have to be looked at for the sustainability of agriculture.

The Climate Change Cell now has some funds available for funding of demonstration projects or field-testing of products in the area of adaptation agricultural crop and innovative farming practices. According to the mandate given to the Climate Change Cell, project proposals need to focus on the Southwest coastal region.

2. Background The climate of Bangladesh is generally sub-tropical in the north to hot humid in the south. Southwest monsoon influences the climate during June to October, and during the winter the climate is controlled by the northeast monsoon from November to March. The summer is hot and humid and the winter is mild. The country is vulnerable to many environmental hazards, including frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, and storm surges that damage life, property, and agricultural production. It is believed that climate change would increase the disparities in cereal production between developed and developing countries. The production in the developed world would benefit from climate change, while that in developing nation would decline (Walker and Steffen, 1997). Farmlevel adaptation would be inadequate in reducing the disparities. It is also reported that even an extensive farm-level adaptation in the agricultural sector would not entirely prevent such negative effects. In general, the tropical and subtropical countries would be more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global warming through effects on crops, soils, insects, weeds and diseases. On the other hand, elevated carbon-di-oxide (CO,) concentrations will have beneficial effects on crop production. Impacts of climate change would cause enhanced vulnerability to the crop production systems in Bangladesh. The GFDL model predicted about 17 per cent decline in overall rice production and as high as 61 per cent decline in wheat production compared to the baseline situation. The highest impact would be on wheat followed by Aus variety. CCCM model predicted a significant, but much reduced shortfall in food grain production.

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It was found that increase in 4C temperature would have severe impact on food grain production, especially for wheat production. On the other hand, carbon-di-oxide fertilization would facilitate food grain production. A rise in temperature cause significant decrease in production, some 28 and 68 per cent for rice and wheat, respectively. On the other hand, doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO, in combination with a similar rise in temperature would result into an overall 20 per cent rise in rice production and 31 percent decline in wheat production. It was found that Boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe climate change scenario. In the winter months the coastal croplands suffer due to salinity related problems. In absence of appreciable rainfall the soil in the coastal areas starts to desiccate, and because of capillary actions salt comes up at the surface of the soil and accumulates at the root zones. Salinity problem is often intensified when high spring tides inundate low-lying coastal areas, especially when they are associated with cyclonic storm surges. Many of the crop varieties, especially those of food grain varieties, are not salinity tolerant. As a result, a large area in the coastal districts is virtually unsuitable for a number of crops, while the production of a few other crops is lesser under saline conditions. Since salinity intrusion restricts cultivation of Boro and wheat, the potential impact cannot be ascertained. However, the varieties that are grown with the given conditions, about 0.13 Mt food grain is lost annually due to adverse impact of soil salinity. Low-flow conditions in the rivers are often observed in the winter months (lean period) when surface water irrigation becomes severely constrained. Under such conditions, the farmers usually take necessary actions to ensure irrigation by exploiting groundwater resources. Lowflow conditions do not cause direct vulnerability to crop production, but cause economic hardship to the poor farmers. The situation is observed in the upland areas in the northwest (Barind Tract) and in the lower Ganges floodplains.

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The Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock ensure preparation implementation of their own work plan at field level. Full utilization of time is to ensure determination of disaster loss and damage and planning of agricultural rehabilitation. In these, various departments and agencies of the Government and NGO,s are involved following major functions and activities are done:

Quantify the loss and damage of all assets and stores together with that of crops, poultry, fisheries, fish hatcheries, fishponds, trawlers and other structures of agricultural rehabilitation.

Ensure availability of adequate supply of seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, agriculture

Implementation inputs for agricultural rehabilitation in the affected areas and transport them to the people.

3. Justification The impact of Global Climate Change on agriculture has been studied extensively for various crops at many different scales in various countries of the world. Lot of study on climate changes issues have conducted by different organization and future impact scenarios has also been developed. Different adaptation measures, technologies and strategies has already been developed by different organizations and as well as by communities to adapt with the climate changes. As the agriculture is the main sector of our economy, therefore it is very essential to identify the suitable technologies or varieties of crops through field level testing and community awareness. Through this study suitable and ideal technologies, adaptation measures, varieties of crops will be identified and tested at field level which would give the hope and confidence to the farmers in adaptation with theirs crops to the climate changes. Further dissemination of developed and developing adaptive measures or technologies will be done through this study which in need at this moment and this study will be the good start for the greater benefit of the farmers community and as well as the country.

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4. Objectives The main objective is to find out suitable adaptation measures that have the potentiality to help the farmers to adapt with climate changes. However, the specific objectives of the project are: To identify the available adaptation measures or technologies for agriculture to adapt to climate change; To identify suitable variety of crops that would be able to adapt with climate change, To demonstrate and test the available adaptation or technologies or crop varieties through farmers participation; To disseminate the information on available adaptation measures or technologies or crop varieties to the farmers through awareness building.

Methodology The flow diagram of the detail methodology for the proposed study is presented in Figure-1. The study will be conducted with close consultation with relevant organizations mentioned in the study flow diagram. The Satkhira district is selected for study area which is under coastal region. The proposed research will explore how to adapt agricultural crop due to climate change in future. The action research team will begin with a literature review involving past published material on climate change and adaptation agricultural crop. To assess and analysis the problems, study team members will appraise the existing research findings and carry out a preliminary field survey in the study area. The critical issues that would reduce crop agricultural potential in the coastal area will be collated from the literature. In a second step, an attempt will be made to understand the geo-physical environment of the study area. Physical observations will be matched with the findings of the literature survey, which will lead to identification of field-testing sites. BARI and BRRI will cooperate to select the field-testing sites for Rabi and Kharif crops respectively. Hydrological analysis would be done to understand the extent and nature of the flood in the study area. The flood depth and spatial distribution of rainfall will be examined during monsoon season. The extreme
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temperature, salinity and soil salinity will be observed for Rabi season. From these observations and analyses the effects of climate change on the geophysical environment of the study area will be identified. During this process the participation of the local stakeholders will be ensured. Based on this discussion and analysis, future climate scenarios for crop adaptability will be developed. The climate scenarios will explain future adverse impacts on agriculture crops due to climate change (salinity, extreme temperature, rainfall etc.). Based on the climate scenarios an attempts will be made to quantify impacts of various aspects of climate change such as salinity, sea level rise etc on agriculture consulting with experts and local community. The Rabi season crops (such as potato or wheat) and Kharif-1 season crops (such as pulses or oil seed) may be selected in consultation with BARI. The boro rice crop or transplanted aman rice crop will be selected in consultation with BRRI. the suitable rice and non-rice crops will be identified based on climate scenarios for field-testing. After selecting the rice and non-rice crops, an experimental layout in the field will be designed. In the selected field site, Participatory Community techniques such as PVA and CRA will be applied in order to analyze the perceived climate change risks amongst the primary stakeholders. Vulnerability of the farming system and those of the farmers will be analyzed, while solutions to address such vulnerability to crop agriculture, in the context defined by the farmers themselves, will be discussed and ascertained by interviewing agriculture extension Officials in the locality. Grassroots courtyard sessions, informal workshops/FGDs, and national-level roundtable will be organized in a bid to identify and assess adaptation measures, technologies and farmers strategies.

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Figure-1: Methodology for demonstration and /or field testing of crops

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Once the ground research is completed, efforts will be made to apply selected adaptation measure(s), primarily on selected rice cultivation and rabi crops. The field sensitivity of newly developed, but not so disseminated variety of rice crop (i.e., BRRI 41 and BRRI 40) will be tested in relation to increasing salinity on field condition in the selected locations in the study area. Similar field sensitivity of selected rabi crops in saline conditions will be tested and optimum condition for selected rabi crops cultivation in salinity threatened areas will be established. A number of plots will be identified and their senility to salinity in the full production cycle will be studied. Based on field analyses, the optimum production condition in the field will be recorded. An analytical tool CROPSUIT developed by CEGIS will be used to estimate the physical suitability of land for different land use types or crops. CROPSUIT determines the physical suitability of land based on land characteristics (LC) and land use requirement (LUR) suitability matrix. The LUR information is already developed by CEGIS in the study of coastal land use zoning (CEGIS, 2005) under SEMP. All LC data is regenerated from the soil map (Bangla Nirdeshika Thana Map) produced by SRDI and converted into GIS Grid format. The

CROPSUIT model will be used to generate the suitability maps showing highly suitable, suitable, moderately suitable and not suitable areas for different crops. It may also be used to map the suitability under different sea level rise scenarios. The results of the sensitivity tests and field optimization of adaptation measure(s) for alternative crops will be shared amongst the farmers in the pilot study locations. The entire process of field level adaptation will be documented for future reference and dissemination. 6. Outputs The outputs of the study are as follows: 1. Selection of adaptive measures, technologies, or crops suitable for the study area selected. 2. Field testing of adaptive crops or technologies, and dissemination. 3. Documentation on process of field level adaptation for future reference and dissemination.

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7. Logical Framework

Objectives Goal: Suitable adaption initiatives for the agricultural crops due to climate change

Measurable Indicators Monthly rainfall, temperature and Humidity

Means of Verifications Collecting date from regional meteorological office Dialogue report Project Reports

Important Assumption (Goal to Super goal) Changed agricultural pattern Change in government policy Climate change Continuous practice suitable crop

Purpose: Sustain the agricultural crops.

Amount of crop, crop quality and cost of production

Interviewing of people Interview of regional agriculture officer Market analysis

(Purpose to Goal) Government initiatives Local people perception The role of NGO Information utilization

Output: Selection of adaptive measures and testing adaptive crops which is suitable for the project area Activities: Hydrological analysis, Assessing vulnerability on agriculture, Community consultation.

Saline tolerant, temperature tolerant crop cultivation

Regular reports of staffs Event records Documents created under the project Visitors comments Respective Donor Agency

(Outputs to Purpose) Village politics Cultural conflict Emergency relief

Inputs Personnel salary =1625380 Field cost =177500 Materials, Printing cost =124250 Field testing =142000 Field monitoring =71000

(Activity to Output) Riverbank erosion Heavy rainfall Local conflict

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Total cost =2196930

8. Time Schedule 2011 Time JASO N DJF M A MJJASO N D 2012

Literature Review Community Consultation and Impact Assessment Identify Adaptation options Field Testing Training for Farmers Performance Analysis Stakeholder consultation Strategy formulation

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9. Project Cost It requires BDT 2196930.00 to carry out the proposed study. The detail of the cost is given in the following table. SL NO Description 1 Personnel No. Agronomist Climate Change Specialist (BUP) Adaptation Specialist (BARC) Water Resources Specialist Crop Specialist (BRRI) Adaptive Research Specialist (BRRI) Adaptive Research Specialist (BARI) Land use Specialist Junior RS/GIS specialist Junior Climate/Hydrology/Land use specialist Sub Total 2 Field Cost (Duty Travel) TA /DA for field trip Vehicle and Fuel cost for field trip Person 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 Rates 124250 121690 60850 121690 60850 30450 91300 91300 53250 35500 Cost BDT 621250 121690 60850 121690 60850 30450 91300 91300 213000 213000 1625380

106500 71000
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Sub Total 3 Materials, printing cost Report production Other materials (maps, stationeries etc.) Sub Total Training & W/S Training of stakeholders Local workshop National workshop Sub Total Field Testing Field testing for rabi crops Field testing for kharif crops Sub Total Field monitoring Sub Total

177500

28400 28400 56800

35500 35500 53250 124250

71000 71000 142000 71000 71000 2196930

Total Project Cost (BDT) 10. Concluding Remarks

The global climate change is one of the most significant environmental issues of the present world. The effects of global climate change are evident now, as we are experiencing through irregular weather conditions. Agriculture is strongly interrelated with climatic factors. Temperature, which is one of the main factors of climate, is closely associated with agricultural production. In agriculture, rice production is affected by deviation in temperature. Climate change will increase the temperature, which will bring changes in rice farming activities and affect crops yields. Various studies indicate that a rise of 10 C to 20 C, in combination with lower solar radiation, causes sterility in rice spikelet and high temperature was found to reduce yields of HYVs of aus, aman and boro rice in all study locations and in all seasons in Bangladesh

It is expected that due to climate change, humidity, wind flow, and temperature in Bangladesh will be changed. These three climatic mechanisms, in changing conditions, cause an increase in insects, pests, diseases and microorganisms in agriculture, and accordingly, crop production will
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decrease.

The production of potato, brinjal, ladie's finger, tomato, cauliflower, sugarcane,

groundnut, ginger, onion, garlic, banana, date, plum etc. will decrease. Increase of diseases, pests and insects will also affect transportation and storage of different crops and vegetable. Climate change will lead to extreme weather, which will increase the burning or destruction of crops. Due to climate change, occurrence of tornadoes, cyclones and hailstorms will be greater than before. It will hamper the total agriculture production. Bangladesh is an agro-economy based developing country. There is no doubt that its agriculture will be badly affected by the climate change. Loss in agriculture would increase many social problems, and force the import of food, which will require spending of hard currency.

It is clearly evident that the agricultural production is facing various difficulties due to climate change, so without the adaptation of agricultural crop and innovating farming practice the sustainability of agriculture sector cant be imagine specially the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh.

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Appendix

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