November 6, 2012

INDONESIA

BANKS

SHORT TERM (3 MTH)

LONG TERM

Conviction| |

3Q12: Upgrades galore

Notes from the Field

We upgrade the earnings of smaller banks by 10-19% after their 3Q12 performances have surpassed expectations. The big banks' showing was mostly in line with expectations, although BCA could be upgraded in 4Q12, while BRI is a potential candidate to be downgraded.
Figure 1: Except for BRI and BNI, 3Q12 earnings were mostly driven by operational, rather than provisioning factors as in previous quarters

Mulya Chandra CFA

T 6221 30061721 E mulya.chandra@cimb.com
70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

0%
-10% -20%

3Q12 PPOP yoy growth

3Q12 pretax profit yoy growth

3Q12 net profit yoy growth

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Banking intermediary remains sound, as reflected by credit growth in August 2012 that reached 23.6% (yoy).
Bank Indonesia

We had toned down our expectations on BNI, whose growth turnaround story is rather protracted. Maintain Overweight, with catalysts expected from the sectors buoyant earnings growth, thanks to robust loan growth and stable NIMs. Our top picks remain Mandiri and BCA; along with Bukopin in the small banks space.

Stable asset quality and declining cost

Gross NPL ratios were mostly stable, except for Jabar and BTN that saw a deterioration due to riskier micro lending expansion and seasonality respectively. The cost-income ratios of some banks moderated, on the back of stellar topline showing and improved efficiencies.

Stellar earnings growth

Banks in our universe grew their 9M12 net profit on average by 22% yoy, in line with the combined loan growth of 22% yoy. Unlike previous quarters, 3Q12 earnings growth is mainly driven by core operational growth, rather than provisioning upside, except for BRI and BNI. Excluding these two, 3Q12 pre-provisioning profit (PPOP) grew by 23% yoy, far higher than the 20% yoy spike for net profit. We upgrade smaller banks' CY12-13 EPS by 10-19%, mainly on improving loan growth assumptions. Overall, most banks' NIMs were stable, except for Mandiris that increased on better asset mix and BRIs that slipped on weak micro lending growth.

Positive outlook for BCA, but negative on BRI

In general, 3Q12 results were satisfactory and lay a solid loan base for future quarters earnings growth, thereby, underpinning our sanguine sector call. More specifically, we see upside potential in 4Q12 for BCA, but foresee downside risks for BRI. BCAs strong PPOP growth in 3Q12 should eventually translate into net profit upside that trumps consensus, as its excessive provisioning coverage normalises. Conversely, BRIs weak core drivers could present earnings downside, should its extremely low 9M12 provisioning expenses prove to be unsustainable in 4Q12.

Highlighted Companies Bank Mandiri

Although loans growth moderated to 23% yoy, NIM expanded due to better asset yield and stable cost of funds. Asset quality remained benign, while costs moderated. We expect ROE to trend up on continuously improving NIM and loans expansion.

Bank Central Asia

BCA raised its provisioning coverage to 388% from 312% in 3Q12, although this is irrelevant with its declining NPL ratio. We believe this could provide an earnings boost for the last quarter of 2012; as earnings will jump when the coverage normalises.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia

With no signs of improving micro lending, BRIs consecutive weak 3Q12 results vindicate our negative contrarian call on the bank. We see further earnings downside from declining NIM and normalising (i.e. rising) provisioning charges.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
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BANKS
November 6, 2012

KEY CHARTS Robust loan growth

Loan growth moderated to 22.0% from 24.5% yoy in 2Q12 on base effect, but this is still within our expectations of 22-24% for FY12. The loans of individual banks grew in the range of 15-34%, with BNI and BRI located at the lower end and BCA at the upper end.
40% 9% 7% 5% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -1% -5%

3%
1%

qoq (LHS)

yoy (RHS)

Stable NIMs, except for Mandiri and BRI

Thanks to stable cost of funds (set against the backdrop of ample sector liquidity) and flat lending rates, most banks maintained their NIMs. Yet, Mandiris NIM improved on rising contribution from higher-yielding assets like micro loans. On the contrary, BRIs NIM fell on declining contribution from micro loans, which expanded at a slower rate than corporate loans.
16 14 12 10

6
4 2 0 Mandiri BRI BCA BNI Danamon Panin BTN BTPN Jabar

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

Lesser provisioning upside

Generally, provisioning expenses in 9M12 have matched those in 9M11 in absolute rupiah terms. The exception is BRI, whose 9M12 provisioning expenses were extremely low at 39% for 9M11, and around 40% for both 9M10 and 9M09. This is due to the full implementation of new accounting standards in 2012, with downside expected when the numbers are verified by auditors.
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Rp bn

2,000 1,000 0

9M11

9M12

9M11

9M12

Improving foreign currency liquidity

In 3Q12, banks foreign currency (Fx) LDRs were either down or flat qoq. It was mostly due to the significant slowdown in Fx lending.
160% 140% 120%

100%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

Mandiri BRI Jabar

Danamon Panin BTN

BNI BCA Sector

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Rp bn

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Figure 2: Sector Comparison

Company DBS Group OCBC United Overseas Bank Singapore average Agricultural Bank of China Bank of China Bank of Communications China CITIC Bank China Construction Bank China Merchants Bank China Minsheng Bank ICBC Hong Kong average Bank Bukopin Bank Central Asia Bank Danamon Bank Jabar Banten Bank Mandiri Bank Negara Indonesia Bank Panin Bank Rakyat Indonesia Bank Tabungan Negara Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Indonesia average Affin Holdings Alliance Financial Group AMMB Holdings BIMB Holdings Hong Leong Bank Malayan Banking Bhd Public Bank Bhd RHB Capital Bhd Malaysia average Bangkok Bank Bank of Ayudhya Kasikornbank Krung Thai Bank Siam Commercial Bank Thanachart Capital Tisco Financial Group TMB Bank Thailand average Average (all) Bloomberg Ticker DBS SP OCBC SP UOB SP 1288 HK 3988 HK 3328 HK 998 HK 939 HK 3968 HK 1988 HK 1398 HK BBKP IJ BBCA IJ BDMN IJ BJBR IJ BMRI IJ BBNI IJ PNBN IJ BBRI IJ BBTN IJ BTPN IJ AHB MK AFG MK AMM MK BIMB MK HLBK MK MAY MK PBK MK RHBC MK BBL TB BAY TB KBANK TB KTB TB SCB TB TCAP TB TISCO TB TMB TB Recom. Outperform Underperform Neutral Outperform Neutral Neutral Neutral Outperform Neutral Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Trading Buy Neutral Outperform Outperform Outperform Underperform Outperform Neutral Underperform Underperform Underperform Outperform Underperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Underperform Outperform Neutral Outperform Neutral Outperform Neutral Underperform Price Target Price (local curr) (local curr) 13.84 17.32 9.13 10.24 18.31 22.47 3.41 3.22 5.63 4.05 5.90 14.62 7.48 5.18 630 8,250 6,150 1,100 8,400 3,700 710 7,100 1,570 5,150 3.36 4.07 6.37 3.07 14.68 9.01 15.54 7.50 178.0 29.5 177.5 18.4 160.0 37.8 46.5 1.9 4.14 3.23 5.49 3.34 7.49 13.85 8.38 5.86 1,300 10,500 7,000 1,280 11,000 4,750 1,200 7,400 2,200 5,450 2.82 4.00 6.18 3.78 11.50 11.60 17.30 7.40 188.0 40.0 207.0 27.0 190.0 48.0 55.0 1.7 Market Cap (US$ m) 27,510 25,549 23,508 134,057 121,462 52,772 26,576 189,520 36,851 27,819 221,946 521 21,115 6,119 1,107 20,347 7,163 1,775 18,182 1,441 3,122 1,639 2,057 6,267 1,069 9,008 24,822 17,916 5,474 11,028 5,816 13,788 8,347 17,624 1,566 1,099 2,643 Core P/E (x) CY2012 CY2013 9.8 9.4 11.9 11.7 10.5 10.1 10.7 10.3 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.4 6.2 5.7 4.6 6.2 5.8 5.9 17.7 14.4 8.3 13.6 10.4 7.7 10.0 10.2 14.8 12.6 8.6 12.1 11.3 12.6 14.9 12.7 13.7 9.2 12.5 10.4 12.1 11.9 7.9 13.4 8.5 9.2 15.3 11.3 6.6 4.8 4.9 5.8 4.1 5.8 5.2 4.5 5.8 5.3 4.9 14.6 12.7 7.0 10.8 8.4 6.5 8.9 8.6 11.8 10.5 8.7 10.6 10.1 10.8 13.2 11.9 12.2 8.2 11.4 9.2 9.8 10.0 7.6 11.3 8.0 7.9 15.0 9.8 6.1 3-year EPS CAGR (%) 6.3% 5.5% 11.9% 8.5% 22.5% 12.2% 2.3% 7.5% 14.1% 16.4% 13.6% 12.3% 14.4% 17.0% 16.8% 16.6% 23.2% 23.7% 18.5% 28.9% 16.2% 24.8% 32.4% 20.2% 6.6% 13.1% 13.0% 20.1% 15.8% 8.5% 13.6% 13.3% 12.8% 12.7% 23.2% 22.4% 20.0% 20.1% 9.8% 10.9% 16.0% 20.0% 14.5% P/BV (x) CY2012 CY2013 1.07 1.01 1.24 1.17 1.27 1.17 1.18 1.11 1.17 0.89 0.89 0.76 1.26 1.28 1.08 1.30 1.13 1.00 4.01 2.07 1.75 2.66 1.62 1.04 2.82 1.73 3.87 2.58 0.85 1.67 1.52 1.66 2.31 2.12 3.09 1.40 2.05 1.29 1.61 2.36 1.42 2.59 1.15 1.88 1.46 1.80 1.25 1.00 0.79 0.79 0.66 1.09 1.07 0.91 1.12 0.98 0.87 3.32 1.87 1.56 2.22 1.40 0.89 2.28 1.55 2.91 2.17 0.81 1.55 1.36 1.52 2.07 2.01 2.68 1.25 1.87 1.19 1.46 2.02 1.28 2.27 0.90 1.67 1.37 1.60 1.09 Recurring ROE (%) CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 11.2% 11.1% 10.9% 11.0% 10.3% 10.7% 12.6% 12.1% 12.4% 11.5% 11.1% 11.3% 21.9% 17.4% 17.8% 18.6% 21.8% 24.4% 25.1% 22.5% 21.0% 18.6% 25.2% 15.1% 22.4% 21.2% 16.5% 14.5% 31.3% 17.9% 29.9% 22.4% 10.1% 14.2% 14.4% 13.4% 17.0% 16.2% 24.2% 15.2% 16.8% 12.7% 13.7% 21.1% 17.4% 20.2% 14.0% 21.1% 9.7% 16.5% 20.0% 22.6% 17.0% 14.4% 17.4% 20.2% 22.4% 21.8% 20.9% 19.8% 18.9% 24.8% 15.5% 23.6% 22.4% 17.8% 14.8% 28.3% 19.0% 28.2% 22.4% 9.5% 15.2% 14.2% 14.7% 16.5% 17.3% 23.6% 16.0% 17.2% 13.4% 15.6% 21.9% 17.6% 21.4% 12.7% 22.4% 9.4% 17.3% 19.1% 22.3% 17.4% 13.9% 16.2% 20.7% 21.4% 20.4% 20.4% 19.6% 19.8% 23.9% 16.7% 24.6% 22.1% 18.4% 15.5% 26.2% 20.1% 27.9% 22.1% 9.8% 15.9% 14.3% 15.6% 16.8% 18.0% 23.2% 15.9% 17.5% 13.3% 16.6% 21.3% 17.4% 21.2% 12.0% 21.8% 10.2% 17.3% 19.0% P/PPOPS (x) Dividend Yield (%) CY2012 CY2013 CY2012 CY2013 6.6 6.8 4.7% 4.4% 6.2 8.2 3.5% 3.7% 7.9 7.4 3.8% 4.3% 6.8 7.4 4.0% 4.2% 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 4.1 3.9 2.8 4.3 3.8 4.1 13.1 7.2 5.5 8.6 7.1 3.9 6.6 5.8 9.6 8.1 6.3 8.4 7.0 4.2 11.2 8.5 9.5 5.5 8.3 6.9 5.8 7.3 4.9 9.0 3.0 5.0 8.1 6.8 4.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.4 3.7 3.5 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.3 10.7 6.4 4.5 7.2 6.3 3.4 6.1 5.3 7.4 7.0 5.8 7.4 6.3 3.7 9.4 8.1 8.4 4.9 7.5 6.3 5.1 6.4 4.9 7.7 1.4 4.3 7.0 5.7 3.9 6.1% 6.1% 3.5% 5.7% 5.3% 4.0% 4.2% 5.2% 5.3% 3.8% 1.6% 1.9% 4.6% 1.3% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 1.7% 5.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 1.9% 5.9% 3.7% 3.2% 4.2% 3.8% 3.3% 2.5% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 5.4% 2.1% 3.2% 4.8% 7.3% 6.7% 3.4% 6.2% 5.7% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 5.8% 4.4% 1.8% 2.2% 6.2% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 0.0% 1.8% 5.8% 3.9% 4.5% 4.6% 1.9% 6.3% 4.1% 3.6% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 3.0% 5.2% 3.5% 3.7% 6.2% 2.1% 3.8% 5.2%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends

BANKS
November 6, 2012

3Q12: Upgrades galore

Table of Contents
1. OUTLOOK 2. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS p.4 p.8

1. OUTLOOK 1.1 More ahead-of-expectation results for smaller banks

The big banks met our and consensus expectations, although we expect some earnings upside for BCA and downside for BRI in 4Q12. Smaller banks beat our and consensus expectations, mostly on the back of faster-than-expected loan growth, as well as cost and tax surprises on the ancillary fronts. We raise their earnings by 10-19%, thereby, nudging up their target prices in the process. Along with rolling forward to end-2013, our target prices increase by up to 33%, except for BNI, whose target price was downgraded by 9% as we tone down our growth expectations.
Figure 3: 9M12 results recap. Big banks met expectations, while smaller banks surpassed.
Net profit (Rp bn) yoy qoq Mandiri BRI BCA BNI Danamon Panin BTN BTPN Jabar COMBINED 11,119 13,168 8,276 5,039 2,992 1,621 1,021 1,442 946 45,624 21% 26% 8% 24% 22% 29% 44% 50% 19% 22% 6% 0% -1% 0% -10% -4% 5% 8% 5% 1%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Notes from the Field

Banking intermediary remains sound, reflected by credit growth in August 2012 that reached 23.6% (yoy).
Bank Indonesia

Core EPS: actual vs prev forecast Consensus In line In line In line In line CIMB In line In line In line In line

Reasons

Ahead Ahead Lower than expected cost and provisioning Ahead Ahead Higher than expected non interest income Ahead Ahead Strong loan growth and low provisioning Ahead Ahead Strong loan growth Ahead Ahead Tax surprise and strong loan growth

Strong loan growth that came with robust NIMs was the dominant earnings growth driver, which is a departure from previous quarters where provisioning was the key upside driver. Stable 3Q12 asset quality has contributed to the banks flat yoy 9M12 provisioning expenses, with the exception of BRIs which fell by 61% yoy, due to the full implementation of new accounting standards in 2012. BRI stated that it only implemented the standards partially in 2011.
Figure 4: Banks in our universe grew by 15-34% yoy, averaging at 22% yoy. BCA and Panin led, while BRI and BNI lagged.
40% 9%
35%

30% 7% 25% 5% 20% 15% 3% 10% 5%

0%

1%

-1%

-5%

qoq (LHS)

yoy (RHS)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Figure 5: Most banks 9M12 provisioning expenses were flat yoy, except for BRIs that shrank by more than half on accounting change
6,000 5,000 4,000
Rp bn

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000

Rp bn

3,000 2,000 1,000 0

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

9M11

9M12

9M11

9M12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Asset quality generally improved, as indicated by the downward trajectory for gross NPL ratios. Jabar and BTN were the exceptions, as their NPL ratios rose on further deterioration arising from the expansion into the micro lending segment and seasonal factors, respectively. We are cautious on Jabar, but not so much on BTN.
Figure 6: Banks gross NPL ratios mostly trended down, except for Jabar on riskier expansion into micro lending and BTN on seasonality factor
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5

%
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Mandiri BRI BCA 3Q11 BNI 4Q11 Danamon 1Q12 2Q12 Panin 3Q12 BTN BTPN Jabar

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Anomalies in provisioning coverage were seen in BCA and Jabar amid flat levels in other banks. BCA raised its coverage to 388% from 312%, despite its declining gross NPL ratio to 0.4% from 0.5% in 2Q12. We see this as a buffering move during the favourable 3Q12 quarter, which could translate into potential earnings upside in 4Q12. Conversely, Jabar cut its provisioning coverage to 118% from 125% in 2Q12, which could alleviate the impact of asset quality deterioration on earnings.

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Figure 7: Provisioning coverage: mostly maintained the levels, except for BCA that raised it (seemingly due to buffering) and Jabar that cut it to boost earnings
450 400 350 300

250 200 150

100

50 0

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 8: LDRs trended up, but it is good for BCA and BNI, whose LDRs are below BIs optimised level
140 120 max: 100% 100 80

min: 78% 60 40 20 0

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Most banks cost-to-income ratios moderated qoq, thanks to rising topline and better cost efficiencies. However, BRI and BNIs ratios inched up on the back of normalisation and seasonal factors, respectively.
Figure 9: Cost-to-income ratios trended down in general, except for BRI and BNI's that inched up
80 70 60
50

40 30 20 10 -

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Bank Jabar surprised us and consensus by reducing the 9M12 effective tax rate to 20% from 25% in 6M12. It claimed that it is eligible for the 5%-pt tax rate reduction, despite only having a 25% market float. It argued that another 24% of its equity is owned by more than 300 parties, with each owning less than 5%. Thus, on a combined basis, Bank Jabar has met the criteria of having at least 40% market float in principle. Yet, this has not been confirmed by the tax office and auditors.
Figure 10: Quarterly effective tax rates were roughly unchanged, except for Jabar that cut the rate to 20% for 9M12 profits from 25%, on claiming the tax incentive
40% 35% 30%
25%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 11: Individual banks Fx LDRs: flat or trending down. Fx liquidity improved across the board
160% 140% 120%

Figure 12: BNI and BRIs Fx deposits outstripped Fx loans growth

20.0% 15.0% 10.0%

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep

100%
80%

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%

60% 40% 20% 0%

Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

-15.0% -20.0% Forex loans growth, qoq Forex deposits growth, qoq

Mandiri
BRI

Danamon
Panin

BNI
BCA

Jabar

BTN

Sector

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Figure 13: Sector Fx LDR trended down as Fx deposits outpaced Fx loans growth
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 75% 0% 70% -10% -20% -30% -40% Forex loans growth, yoy Forex deposits growth, yoy 65% 60% 55% 50% Sector foreign currency LDR (RHS) 100% 95% 90% 85% 80%

SOURCES: CIMB, BANK INDONESIA

2. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION 2.1 Higher target prices, except for BNI
Aside from revising our earnings forecast for the banks, we also roll forward the target prices, thereby raising them; with the exception of BNI, whose target price was cut following the earnings forecast downgrade.
Figure 14: EPS and target price change
Target price Previous BMRI BBRI BBCA BBNI BDMN PNBN BBTN BTPN BJBR 9,600 6,600 9,200 5,200 7,000 1,100 2,000 4,100 1,040 Current 11,000 7,400 10,500 4,750 7,000 1,200 2,200 5,450 1,280 Change Previous 15% Outperform 12% Underperform 14% Outperform -9% Outperform 0% Trading Buy 9% Outperform 10% Outperform 33% Neutral 23% Neutral Rating Current Outperform Underperform Outperform Outperform Trading Buy Outperform Outperform Neutral Neutral EPS changes FY12F 10% 17% 15% 13% 15% FY13F -7% Lower loan growth and higher provisioning expectation 13% Lower cost and provisioning expectation 17% Higher non-interest income expectation 13% Higher loan growth and lower provisioning expectation 14% Higher loan growth expectation 19% Lower tax and higher loan growth expectation
SOURCES: CIMB

Comments

We maintain Overweight on the sector, with catalysts expected from the sectors buoyant earnings growth that is driven by robust loan growth and stable NIMs. Our top picks remain Mandiri and BCA; along with Bukopin in the small banks space.

BANKS
November 6, 2012

Figure 15: BMRI and BBCA are outperforming after 3Q12 results, while BBRI underperforming considerably

Figure 16: BBTN recently outperformed on mini-hype before its rights issue, while PNBN underperformed on the lack of catalysts
160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

Title: Source:

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep

JAKFIN

BBCA

BBRI

BMRI

PNBN

BBTN

BTPN

BJBR

BBNI

BDMN

JCI

BBKP

JCI

JAKFIN

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG

BANKS
November 6, 2012

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If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. 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Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (CIMBR). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBR accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR. As of November 5, 2012, CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report. Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden. Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. 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Recommendation Framework #1 *

Stock
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a benchmark's total return. UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. relevant relevant relevant relevant relevant

Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand an d Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons. CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

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Recommendation Framework #2 **

Stock
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.

Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better) or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.
ADVANC - Excellent, AMATA - Very Good, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCP - Excellent, BEC - Very Good, BECL Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Very Good, CCET - Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, GLOBAL - not available, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD - Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KBANK - Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Very Good, MCOT Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - not available, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Very Good, SPALI - Very Good, STA - Very Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Very Good, THCOM Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TUF - Very Good.

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