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November 5, 2012
CEAT
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
2QFY12 1,107 62 5.6 6 % chg (yoy) 6.0 26.3 107bp 199 1QFY13 1,187 105 8.8 26 % chg (qoq) (1.2) (25.5) (218)bp (35)
`110 `163
12 Months
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Tyre 376 951 0.7 125/66 82,540 10 18,763 5,704 CEAT.BO CEAT@IN
Ceat posted sluggish results for 2QFY2013 primarily due to contraction in operating margins on a sequential basis led by increase in employee (wage hikes and bonus payouts) and other expenditure (higher advertising spends). During the quarter, Ceat registered an exceptional expense of `14cr to account for the change in policy of recognizing provision for warranty from actual claim basis to expected cost basis. Further, the company also announced a VRS scheme for the employees at the Bhandup plant and expects to incur a charge of `15cr related to it in 3QFY2013. We retain our positive view on Ceat and believe that the company will continue to report a strong performance led by gradual ramp-up at the Halol plant and stable raw-material prices. However a slowdown in demand remains a concern as the replacement demand has not picked up as anticipated. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Margins contract on a sequential basis: For 2QFY2013, Ceat reported a modest growth of 6% yoy (down 1.2% qoq) in net sales to `1,173cr primarily due to flat growth in volumes at 51,000MT. The volume performance was impacted on account of a slowdown in replacement as well as export markets, which account for ~80% of revenues. The net average realization, however, improved 4.8% yoy (flat qoq) due to superior product-mix. On a sequential basis, the EBITDA margin declined by 210bp to 6.7% mainly due to 110bp qoq increase in other expenditure (led by higher ad spends and higher power costs) and 80bp increase in employee expenses (wage hikes and bonus for full year). On a yoy basis, margins improved by only 107bp as benefits of lower raw-material cost (down 380bp as a percentage of sales) were negated by a 220bp increase in other expenses as a percentage of sales. The adjusted net profit for the quarter stood at `17cr as against `26cr in 1QFY2013. Outlook and valuation: At `110, the stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 2.7x FY2014E earnings. We retain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `163, valuing the stock at 4x FY2014E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 52.9 19.0 1.6 26.5
3m 9.1 10.1
FY2011
3,499 24.6 28 (83.3) 4.0 8.0 16.9 0.6 4.3 7.3 0.3 8.2
FY2012
4,472 27.8 10 (64.8) 5.6 2.8 49.9 0.6 1.5 10.9 0.3 5.3
FY2013E
4,989 11.6 93 856.6 8.2 27.1 4.1 0.5 13.2 17.4 0.3 3.4
FY2014E
5,634 12.9 140 50.5 8.5 40.8 2.7 0.4 17.2 19.1 0.2 2.8
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 51,000 1,173 816 69.6 70 6.0 15 1.3 194 16.5 1,095 78 6.7 50 20 9 18 (14) 4 0.3 1 32.8 3 17 0.2 34.2 0.8 4.9
2QFY12 50,600 1,107 814 73.5 59 5.4 13 1.2 159 14.3 1,045 62 5.6 48 17 12 8 8 0.7 3 32.4 6 6 0.5 34.2 1.6 1.6
% chg (yoy) 0.8 6.0 0.2 17.6 20.0 22.0 4.8 26.3 3.1 13.1 (23.0) 118.4 (50.7) (50.2) (51.0) 199.3
1QFY13 51,500 1,187 824 69.4 62 5.2 14 1.2 182 15.4 1,082 105 8.8 53 19 5 38 38 3.2 12 32.4 26 26 2.2 34.2
% chg (qoq) (1.0) (1.2) (0.9) 12.6 10.8 6.2 1.2 (25.5) (6.6) 1.6 67.5 (52.4) (89.3) (89.2) (89.3) (34.8)
1HFY13 102,500 2,360 1,640 69.5 132 5.6 29 1.2 376 15.9 2,177 183 7.8 103 39 14 56 (14) 42 1.8 14 32.5 29 43 1.2 34.2
1HFY12 102,100 2,184 1,666 76.3 116 5.3 26 1.2 319 14.6 2,126 57 2.6 90 33 15 (51) (3) (54) (2.5) (17) 32.4 (36) (33) (1.7) 34.2 (10.6) (9.7)
% chg (yoy) 0.4 8.1 (1.6) 13.7 13.5 17.9 2.4 220.0 14.6 17.5 (2.5) -
(51.0) 199.3
7.5 7.5
(89.3) (34.8)
8.3 12.4
Modest top-line growth of 6% yoy due to flat volumes: For 2QFY2013, standalone net sales registered a modest growth of 6% yoy (down 1.2% qoq) to `1,173cr driven largely by increase in net average realization (up 4.8% yoy). The growth in the net average realization was led by a superior product-mix with higher share of radial tyres in total volumes. The total volumes in tonnage terms though posted a flat growth at 51,000MT led by weak demand in the replacement segment. Export revenue too registered a decline of 3.7% yoy to `260cr due to weakness in Latin America and European markets. While replacement sales accounted for 54% (61% in 1QFY2013) of total volumes during the quarter; OEM and exports accounted for 24% (19% in 1QFY2013) and 22% (20% in 1QYFY2013) respectively. During 2QFY2013, the capacity at the Halol plant remained at 1QFY2013 levels of 90TPD as the company is skeptical about increasing the supply amidst a slowdown in demand. However, Ceat plans to ramp-up the capacity to 150TPD at Halol by the end of 4QFY2013. The Halol plant contributed 15% of total volumes during the quarter (flat qoq).
November 5, 2012
(%) 1,173 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
843
895
998
1,077
38.5
1,107
1,222 1,064
1,187
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
Operating margins decline sequentially to 6.7%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin declined 210bp sequentially to 6.7% mainly due to 110bp qoq increase in other expenditure (led by higher ad spends and higher power coss) and 80bp increase in employee expenses (wage hikes and bonus for full year). Hence the operating profit declined 25.5% qoq to `78cr. On a yoy basis though, margins improved by only 107bp as benefits of lower raw-material cost (down 380bp as a percentage fo sales) were negated by a 220bp increase in other expenses as a percentage of sales.
72.7
74.0
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 5.2 3.8 1.9 (0.4) 5.6 6.4 10.6 8.8 6.7
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
2QFY09
4QFY09
2QFY10
4QFY10
2QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
(10.0)
Adjusted net profit at `17cr: During the quarter, Ceat recorded an exceptional expense of `14cr due to change in policy of recognizing provision for warranty from actual claim basis to expected cost based on past trends. Adjusted for the same, net profit witnessed a decline of 34.8% qoq to `17cr mainly due to margin contraction at the operating level. On a yoy basis though, net profit surged (to `17cr as against `6cr in 2QFY2012).
November 5, 2012
2QFY13
(%) 4.0 3.0 17 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (5.0)
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
(1.2)
(12)
(3.9) (42)
November 5, 2012
2QFY13
Investment arguments
Tyre industry Set for a structural shift: Currently, manufacturing radial tyres is far more capital intensive than cross-plys. The investment per tpd for radial tyres is 3.2x of cross-ply at `6.1cr/tpd. On the other hand, the selling price of radial tyres is around 20% higher than cross-ply tyres. Taking into account the difference in capital requirements and the consequent impact on asset turnover, interest cost and depreciation to generate a similar RoCE and RoE, tyre companies would need to earn EBITDA margins of around 21% compared to around 9% being earned on cross-ply tyres. Thus, higher capital requirements will help protect margins from upward-bound input costs, as the business model evolves bearing in mind the final RoE rather than margins. With the sector set for a structural shift and apparent pricing flexibility, it will result in an improvement in RoCE and RoE of tyre manufacturers going forward. Volume growth to benefit from capacity expansion: Ceat is ramping up its radial capacity at the Halol plant to 150TPD, which is likely to be fully operational by 4QFY2013. With the completion of the proposed expansion, the product mix of truck: non-truck is likely to improve to 55:45 resulting in a better product mix, thereby fetching better margins. Increasing focus on exports: Ceat has been increasingly focusing on exports, especially the high-margin specialty tyres, in a bid to offset volatility in its domestic tyre business in the long run.
November 5, 2012
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Company background
Ceat, a part of the RPG Group, is amongst the leading tyre manufacturers in the country with an overall market share of ~12%. The companys manufacturing facilities are located in Bhandup, Nashik and Halol. The company has an overall production capacity of 615TPD (including outsourced). The company exports to countries across Asia, Africa, Europe and America. Exports constitute ~20% of Ceat's total volumes. The company has recently acquired the global rights of the Ceat brand from Italian tyre maker Pirelli - this will enable the company to expand its global presence. Ceat also operates in Sri Lanka through a JV and has a ~50% share in Sri Lanka's tyre market.
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Nov-12
(88.1) 1,178.1
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.8 17.3 (0.0) 0.7 1.5 3.7 1.2 5.5 1.0 1.5 3.8 0.9 1.4 2.5 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 43 48 78 22 2.3 41 45 81 14 2.2 51 45 102 3 2.2 47 45 98 3 2.3 52 47 93 12 2.7 52 47 89 17 (0.2) (0.3) (3.2) 21.9 24.4 29.6 7.3 7.2 4.3 10.9 11.0 1.5 17.4 18.3 13.2 19.1 21.0 17.2 (0.1) 0.4 2.5 (0.1) 6.4 0.8 (5.5) 9.6 0.7 2.8 18.5 7.7 0.8 26.8 3.0 0.7 2.7 5.9 9.2 1.0 2.7 4.1 0.8 2.9 9.5 15.8 1.3 1.2 6.6 0.7 2.9 12.8 12.5 1.4 13.1 7.0 0.7 3.1 14.4 11.7 1.2 17.7 (4.7) (4.6) 2.8 0.0 142.6 48.2 48.3 55.0 4.0 183.6 6.5 8.0 18.0 2.0 189.6 2.2 2.8 23.4 1.0 191.7 27.1 27.1 50.8 1.0 217.6 40.8 40.8 65.5 1.5 256.7 39.6 0.8 0.0 0.3 33.6 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.6 3.6 0.3 2.8 0.6 16.9 6.1 0.6 1.8 0.3 8.2 0.7 49.9 4.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 5.3 0.8 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.9 0.3 3.4 0.7 2.7 1.7 0.4 1.4 0.2 2.8 0.6 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
November 5, 2012
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
CEAT No Yes No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 5, 2012
11