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BHEL
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Data (Standalone)
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 2QFY13 10,562 1,899 18 1,274 2QFY12 10,546 1,959 19 1,412 % chg (yoy) 0.2 (3.0) (59)bp (9.7) 1QFY13 8,439 1,202 14 921 % chg (qoq) 25.2 58.0 374bp 38.4
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Capital Goods 55,095 (6,371) 1.5 340/195 728,246 2 18,505 5,620 BHEL.BO BHEL@IN
`225 -
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) reported a disappointing performance on the top-line and bottom-line front in 2QFY2013. The top-line remained flat yoy at `10,562cr, below our expectations. Order inflows continued to remain subdued at `3,157cr taking the total order book to `122,300 (down 24.1% yoy), thus implying an order book coverage of ~2.5x, which has been deteriorating sequentially over the quarters. The management has guided visibility of 10-13GW power sector orders. However, the headwinds in the power sector such as domestic fuel availability and land acquisition issues may delay these projects. Key Highlights: The top-line remained flat yoy at `10,562cr in spite of the power segment posting a healthy 14.9% yoy growth to `8,958cr on account of decline in the industrial segment by 30.6% yoy to `2,055cr (due to industrial slowdown). The EBITDA margin came in slightly lower than expected at 18.0% (lower by 79bp vs our expectation of 18.8%). Although, the margin of the power segment expanded by 287bp yoy to 19.7%, the margin of industrial segment contracted by 572bp yoy to 21.3%. The company benefited from an exceptional item to the tune of `166cr at the PBT level due to a change in accounting policy. However, the net profit declined by 9.7% yoy to `1,274cr. Outlook and valuation: Given the strong competition (domestic as well as international), declining order flows and a weak capex cycle, we expect BHELs profit, margin and ROE to decline from the current levels. The stock trades at 9.1x and 10.3x on our FY2013E and FY2014E EPS estimates, respectively. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 12.7 14.6 5.0
3m 7.4
1yr 4.5
4.4 (29.2)
FY2011 42,538 26.4 6,053 39.9 20.2 24.7 9.1 4.3 42.3 35.5 1.1 5.3
FY2012E 48,355 13.7 7,087 17.1 20.6 29.0 7.8 3.5 49.5 29.2 1.0 4.9
FY2013E 47,801 (1.1) 6,025 (15.0) 18.5 24.6 9.1 2.7 33.5 22.6 1.0 5.5
FY2014E 43,757 (8.5) 5,346 (11.3) 18.0 21.8 10.3 2.3 24.5 17.9 1.1 6.3
Amit Patil 022-39357800 Ext: 6839 amit.patil@angelbroking.com
Actual
10,562 1,899 1,274
Estimates
11,967 1,985 1,487
Var (%)
(11.7) (4.3) (14.3)
Growth (yoy %)
2QFY13
2QFY12
% chg (yoy)
1QFY13
% chg (qoq)
1HFY13
1HFY12
% chg (yoy)
Growth (yoy %)
Growth (yoy %)
Outlook
Deteriorating dynamics in the BTG space: The recent trend in biddings and projects wins indicates that BHELs leadership position is under threat, thus hinting at a loss in its market share going ahead. Further, given the structural issues faced by the power sector, times look tough for the BTG players. To remain under pressure: BHEL is trading at historically low valuations of 9.1x and 10.3x on FY2013E and FY2014E EPS estimates respectively, owing to 1) weak order inflow; 2) weak investment capex due to a high interest rate regime, which could take more time to gather momentum than earlier anticipated; and 3) changing competitive dynamics in the BTG space with strong capacity additions. We believe these concerns are far from over and, hence, expect the stock to remain under pressure and maintain our Neutral view. Outlook and valuation: Given the strong competition (domestic as well as international), declining order flows and a weak capex cycle, we expect BHELs profit, margin and ROE to decline from the current levels. Hence, the cheaper valuations of 9.1x FY2013 PE and 10.3x FY2014 PE respectively, are largely
overshadowed by structural issues plaguing the company. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock. Change in estimates: We maintain our order inflow and revenue estimates for FY2013E and FY2014E; however we reduce out EBITDA margins estimates, thereby leading to reduced EBITDA and PAT estimates for FY2013E and FY2014E.
Revised estimates
47,801 8,843 6,025
Earlier estimates
43,757 8,226 5,561
Revised estimates
43,757 7,876 5,346
Var. (%)
0.0 (4.4) (4.0)
10x
15x
20x
Upside (%)
(19.5) 13.7 20.0 15.9 -
P/BV(x) FY13E
5.6 2.7 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.3 3.7
P/E(x) FY13E
51.0 9.1 8.8 11.4 4.1 7.0 19.6
FY2011-13E FY14E
29.8 10.3 8.2 10.6 3.4 5.5 20.5
FY14E
4.9 2.3 1.4 1.7 0.5 1.1 3.3
EPS CAGR
68.4 (13.2) (3.4) 33.4 5.9 32.1 (8.9)
FY14E
17.6 24.5 16.7 15.0 12.3 24.0 18.2
Company Background
BHEL is the largest manufacturer of power equipment (boiler and turbine generators) in India with a ~65% market share. The company operates in two segments - power and industry. The company has 15 manufacturing facilities spread across the country with a combined manufacturing capacity of 15GW p.a. and is planning to reach 20GW p.a. by FY2012E. Sets produced by BHEL account for ~62% of India's installed power capacity, which generate ~74% of India's power. Notably, BHEL is the first domestic company to foray into the supercritical technology.
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
(1,840) (1,529)
36,986 43,002
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
Cashflow (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation (Inc)/Dec in Working Capital Less: Other income Direct taxes paid Others Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY09 4,838 282 1,411 785 2,184 (121) 3,440 (1,557) 2 978 (577) 71 991 (920) 1,944 8,386 10,330 FY10 6,621 339 (2,403) 833 2,021 (241) 1,463 (1,752) 1,165 (587) (18) 1,332 (1,350) (474) 10,330 9,856 FY11 9,066 547 (4,385) 647 2,942 654 2,292 (1,691) (5) 1,027 (669) 48 1,821 (1,773) (150) 9,856 9,707 FY12 10,367 806 837 3,197 462.9 (921) 5 1,272 (402) 172 1,821 (1,649) (2,972) 9,707 6,734 FY13E 8,926 827 980 2,901 4 2,018 980 (40) 1,038 1,821 (783) 1,195 6,734 7,929 FY14E 7,920 937 (3,754) 1,050 2,574 1,479 (1,400) 1,050 (350) (500) 1,821 (2,321) (1,192) 7,929 6,737
(8,523) (3,857)
(1,680) (1,020)
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin (%) Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) (%) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) (%) Leverage (x) Operating RoE (%) Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.8) (2.4) 110.4 (0.6) (1.7) 149.5 (0.7) (1.1) 143.6 (0.4) (0.6) 172.6 (0.3) (0.7) 114.5 (0.2) (0.7) 100.0 5.3 92 189 343 (16) 5.4 93 200 332 (8) 5.5 87 176 395 23 5.2 91 219 437 53 102 255 416 81 3.7 102 255 399 113 32.4 227.9 26.3 37.7 176.3 30.0 35.5 71.4 42.3 29.2 42.8 49.5 22.6 30.4 33.5 17.9 23.4 24.5 14.4 0.6 10.3 95.7 17.3 (0.8) 34.0 16.3 0.7 7.5 80.3 15.2 (0.6) 40.5 19.0 0.7 3.3 41.6 21.8 (0.7) 26.9 19.0 0.7 2.1 27.0 12.8 (0.4) 21.3 16.8 0.7 1.7 19.2 5.3 (0.3) 14.7 15.9 0.7 1.4 14.9 4.1 (0.2) 12.2 12.7 12.7 13.9 3.5 52.8 17.7 17.7 19.1 4.7 64.9 24.7 24.7 26.7 6.4 52.1 29.0 29.0 32.2 6.4 64.8 24.6 24.6 28.0 6.4 82.0 21.8 21.8 25.7 6.4 96.4 17.7 16.2 4.3 1.5 1.7 10.8 3.4 4.1 12.7 11.8 3.5 2.1 1.3 7.8 2.8 4.2 9.1 8.4 4.3 2.8 1.1 5.3 1.5 3.8 7.8 7.0 3.5 2.8 1.0 4.9 1.5 2.7 9.1 8.0 2.7 2.8 1.0 5.5 1.3 2.5 10.3 8.8 2.3 2.8 1.1 6.3 1.2 2.5 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
BHEL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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