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Americans United for Change The Mellman Group, Inc. President Obama Leads Ohio October 29, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600 voters representing the likely 2012 Ohio electorate who were interviewed by telephone October 23-25, 2012. The study uses a registration-based sample and has a margin of error of +/4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

With just over a week until Election Day, our recently completed survey shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in Ohio by 5 percentage points (49% Obama, 44% Romney). Obamas lead in the Buckeye State is bolstered by a strong performance among the 23% who say they have already voted. In that segment he garners more than twice as many votes as Romney (63% Obama, 29% Romney). Obama also performs well with swing voters, holding a 7-point lead over Romney among independents (44% Obama, 37% Romney) and a 15-point lead among moderates (52% Obama, 37% Romney). Moreover, Obamas margin among Democrats (+90 points) is larger than Romneys among Republicans (+83 points). Obamas strength among independents, coupled with his fully consolidated base, puts him in a solid position going into the final week. Ohioans also like President Obama better than Governor Romney. Fifty-three percent (53%) view President Obama favorably, compared to 45% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, only 46% view Romney favorably while 50% are unfavorable. Obama also holds a clear image advantage among independents, with a majority viewing him favorably (53% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Romney, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably by a majority of these swing voters (41% favorable, 52% unfavorable). The pool of undecided voters has shrunk to just 5%, but they dislike Romney (13% favorable, 55% unfavorable) and are warmer toward the president (38% favorable, 37% unfavorable). Obamas commanding lead among early voters and his strength among independents make it very difficult for Romney to break through in the week that remains before Election Day.
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