Changes in the Global Water Cycle

Global Water Cycle

Human-induced climate warming has accelerated the global hydrologic cycle through increases in both evapotranspiration and precipitation.

Warmer air holds more water vapor leading to enhanced evpotranspiration and precipitation (water-vapor feedback) Precipitation over land above 30 deg north increased in the 20th century

Figure 9.18. Simulated and observed anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) in terrestrial mean precipitation (a), and zonal mean precipitation trends 1901-1998 (b). Observations (thick black line) are based on a gridded data set of terrestrial rain gauge measurements (Hulme et al., 1998). Model data are from 20th-century MMD integrations with anthropogenic, solar and volcanic forcing from the following coupled climate models (see Table 8.1 for model details): UKMO-HadCM3 (brown), CCSM3 (dark blue), GFDL-CM2.0 (pale green), GFDL-CM2.1 (pale blue), GISS-EH (red), GISS-ER (thin black), MIROC3.2(medres) (orange), MRI-CGCM2.3.2 (dark green) and PCM (pink). Coloured curves are ensemble means from individual models. In (a), a five-year running mean was applied to suppress other sources of natural variability, such as ENSO. In (b), the grey band indicates the range of trends simulated by individual ensemble members, and the thick dark blue line indicates the multi-model ensemble mean. External influence in observations on global terrestrial mean precipitation is detected with those precipitation simulations shown by continuous lines in the top panel. Adapted from Lambert et al. (2005).

Source: IPCC

Global Change
Linear trends from 1948 to 2004 in annual (water year) (a) discharge from each 4 lat 5 lon coastal box estimated from available gauge records and reconstructed river flow, (b) the runoff trend inferred from the discharge trend shown in (a), (c) observed surface air temperature and (d) precipitation (from Qian et al. 2006 ), and (e) CLM3-simulated snow cover and soil ice water. The bottom row shows the confidence level (%) for (g) the discharge and (h) runoff trends based on a t test. A 95% confidence means the trend is statistically significant at the 5% level. (Dai et al., 2004)

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records (Gedney et al, Nature)

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century1, 2 despite more intensive human water consumption3. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming4, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration5. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model6 and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques7 to attribute observational runoff changes1 into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven interannual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.
Observed precipitation (PreO; red bars) and runoff (RoO; dark blue bars), and modelled runoff with all mechanisms (ALL; light blue bars) and the individual components (CLIM, AER, CO2 and LUSE; yellow bars) are shown. ('Land' in the first panel refers to the area-weighted sum of the individual regions.) Striped bars refer to trends over the whole analysis period and solid bars refer to post-1960

Global Water Cycle

In climate warming, wet areas are expected to become wetter (with more flooding), while dry areas are expected to become drier

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply (Jung et al.,Nature)
More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water1. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle 2 and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network3, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machinelearning algorithm4. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.11.0millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Nio event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for

Validation of global land ET product from MTE.

a, Map of mean annual ET (19822008) in mm per year from MTE. b, Performance of MTE in predicting monthly ET at FLUXNET sites (n = 4,678), based on internal tenfold cross-validation (units converted to millimetres per year for consistency). R2, coefficient of determination. c, Comparison of mean annual MTE ET against mean annual ET from catchment water balance calculated as precipitation (P) minus discharge (D) (n = 112). d, Comparison of annual MTE ET (19861995) stratified by bioclimatic zones (n = 24) against the median GSWP-2 model ensemble. All error bars are one s.d. See Supplementary Methods Section 6 for details. Af, equatorial, fully humid; Am, equatorial, monsoonal; As, equatorial, summer dry; Aw, equatorial, winter dry; BWk, cold arid desert; BWh, hot arid desert; BSk, cold arid steppe; BSh, hot arid steppe; Cfa, humid, warm temperate, hot summer; Cfb, humid, warm temperate, warm summer; Cfc, humid, warm temperate, cool summer; Csa, summer dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Csb, summer dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Cwa, winter dry, warm temperate, hot summer; Cwb, winter dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Dfa, snow, humid, hot summer; Dfb, snow, humid, warm summer; Dfc, snow, humid, cool summer; Dsb, snow, summer dry, warm summer; Dsc, snow, summer dry, cool summer; Dwa, snow, winter dry, hot summer; Dwb, snow, winter dry, warm summer; Dwc, snow, winter dry, cool summer; ET, polar tundra.

M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature09396

Validation of global land ET product from MTE.

a, Map of mean annual ET (19822008) in mm per year from MTE. b, Performance of MTE in predicting monthly ET at FLUXNET sites (n = 4,678), based on internal tenfold cross-validation (units converted to millimetres per year for consistency). R2, coefficient of determination. c, Comparison of mean annual MTE ET against mean annual ET from catchment water balance calculated as precipitation (P) minus discharge (D) (n = 112). d, Comparison of annual MTE ET (19861995) stratified by bioclimatic zones (n = 24) against the median GSWP-2 model ensemble. All error bars are one s.d. See Supplementary Methods Section 6 for details. Af, equatorial, fully humid; Am, equatorial, monsoonal; As, equatorial, summer dry; Aw, equatorial, winter dry; BWk, cold arid desert; BWh, hot arid desert; BSk, cold arid steppe; BSh, hot arid steppe; Cfa, humid, warm temperate, hot summer; Cfb, humid, warm temperate, warm summer; Cfc, humid, warm temperate, cool summer; Csa, summer dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Csb, summer dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Cwa, winter dry, warm temperate, hot summer; Cwb, winter dry, warm temperate, warm summer; Dfa, snow, humid, hot summer; Dfb, snow, humid, warm summer; Dfc, snow, humid, cool summer; Dsb, snow, summer dry, warm summer; Dsc, snow, summer dry, cool summer; Dwa, snow, winter dry, hot summer; Dwb, snow, winter dry, warm summer; Dwc, snow, winter dry, cool summer; ET, polar tundra.

M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature09396

ET trend changes.

a, Map of the change in ET trend between 19821997 and 19982008 in millimetres per year per year. Small trend changes of0.1mm per year per year are shown in grey to enhance clarity. Total continental contributions of North America, Europe and Asia (b) and South America, Africa and Australia (c) in cubic kilometres per year per year. T, total area; D, demand-limited area; S, supply-limited area (see Supplementary Fig. 4 ). Error bars refer to one s.d. and are derived from the individual members of the MTE.

M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature09396

Soil-moisture and ET trends.

Significant (P<0.1) soil-moisture trends derived from TRMM (a), significant (P<0.1) ET trends from MTE (b) and mean ET and soilmoisture anomalies (seasonal cycle subtracted and filtered with an 11month running mean) of all valid pixels of the TRMM domain (c). For consistency and improved comparability, regions without data in either MTE (non-vegetated areas) or TRMM soil-moisture data (very dense vegetation) are blanked in the trend maps of a and b.

M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi:10.1038/nature09396

Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover Dirk Scherler, Bodo Bookhagen & Manfred R. Strecker Nature Geoscience 4, 156159 (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1068

a, Location of glaciers (circles) grouped by region. Histograms give relative frequencies (y-axis, 040%) of debris cover (x-axis, 0100% in 5% bins). Number of studied glaciers is given in upper-right corner, measured frontal changes in parentheses. Globe depicts location of subset and atmospheric transport directions. b, Regional distribution of mean annual frontal changes. Boxes give lower and upper quartiles and median (notches indicate 95%-confidence intervals). Whiskers extend 2.5 times the interquartile data range, crosses lie outside this range. Numbers left of boxes indicate percentage of advancing/stable (top) and retreating (bottom) glaciers.

Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions

Barnett et al. (2005)

The value of this dimensionless ratio lies between 0 and 1 and is given by the colour scale, R. The red lines indicate the regions where streamflow is snowmelt-dominated, and where there is not adequate reservoir storage capacity to buffer shifts in the seasonal hydrograph. The black lines indicate additional areas where water availability is predominantly influenced by snowmelt generated upstream (but runoff generated within these areas is not snowmelt-dominated). The inset shows regions of the globe that have complex topography using the criterion of ref. 17.

Changes in the Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, between 1978 (a) and 2002 (b).

Barnett et al. (2005), Nature

Lehner et al.

Lehner et al.

Lehner et al

Impacts of Land Use Change

Land use change affect water cycle by changing: 1. the quantity of energy absorbed 2. the pathway of energy loss 3. the moisture content and temperature of atmosphere How will the conversion of tropical rain forest to pasture land affect the water cycle? How will urban intensification affect the water cycle components?

Consequences of change in water cycle

The role of precipitation on non-irrigated agriculture Irrigated crop land increased about 500 % and supports 40 % of the total crop areas ( so how will changes in water storage affect crop production?) About 40% of the global population has no access to adequate sanitation, while about 17% don't get clean drinking water ( Vorosmarty et al., 2005)