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Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 2QFY13 9,858 2,868 29.1 2,369 1QFY13 9,616 2,943 30.6 2,289 % chg (qoq) 2.5 (2.5) (151)bp 3.5 2QFY12 8,099 2,514 31.0 1,906 % chg (yoy) 21.7 14.1 (195)bp 24.3
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code 0.9 2,990/2,102 136,366 5 18,675 5,676 INFY.BO INFY@IN IT 137,031
`2,396 `2,573
12 Months
Infosys reported its 2QFY2013 results which were decent on the revenue front but disappointed on the operating front. The most disappointing thing in Infosys result was the decline in operating margin by ~150bp qoq. In addition, the company announced that its CFO V. Balakrishnan would give up his position from October 31, 2012 and will be replaced by VP-finance Rajiv Bansal. Balakrishnan will, however, continue to be on the company's board and will now look after BPO operations, Finacle and India operations. Infosys has seen a slew of management changes in the last couple of years which is a cause of concern. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2013, Infosys reported a revenue of US$1,797mn, up 2.6% qoq, led by a modest volume growth of 3.8% qoq. The EBITDA margin declined by 151bp qoq to 29.1%, because of higher subcontracting costs, warranty costs and one-time payout for promotion-based compensation increases. The PAT came in at `2,369cr, up 3.5% qoq, aided by higher other income of `706cr as against `476cr in 1QFY2013. Outlook and valuation: The management commentary indicates that the environment remains exactly where it was a few months back. The company continues to see challenges and delays in ramp-ups of the deals being signed. Post 1HFY2013 performance, the company requires a minimum 3.5% qoq growth rate in the next two quarters to achieve its FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance, which in the current scenario looks a bit stretched. Hence, we believe the company can achieve 5-5.5% yoy revenue growth in FY2013, including revenue from Lodestone. Over FY2012-14E, we expect a USD and INR revenue CAGR of 7.0% and 11.0%, respectively. Over FY201214E, we expect a CAGR of 8.4% and 8.6% in EBIT and PAT, respectively. At the current market price of `2,396, the stock is trading at 15.0x FY2013E and 14.0x FY2014E EPS. We value the company at 15x FY2014E EPS of `172 and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `2,573. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 18.3 39.4 26.2
3m 8.4 5.8
FY2010 22,742 4.8 6,219 3.8 34.5 108.7 22.0 5.7 25.8 25.0 5.3 15.4
FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 20.1 5.0 25.0 25.9 4.4 13.4
FY2012 33,733 22.7 8,315 21.9 31.7 145.5 16.5 4.1 24.9 25.5 3.4 10.8
FY2013E 39,174 16.1 9,094 9.4 29.5 159.2 15.0 3.6 24.1 24.9 2.9 9.9
FY2014E 41,580 6.1 9,800 7.8 30.4 171.6 14.0 3.2 23.1 24.6 2.7 8.8
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 9,858 5,831 4,027 1,159 2,868 271 2,597 706 3,303 934 2,369 41.5 40.8 29.1 26.3 22.4
1QFY13 9,616 5,560 4,056 1,113 2,943 250 2,693 476 3,169 880 2,289 40.1 42.2 30.6 28.0 22.7
% chg (qoq) 2.5 4.9 (0.7) 4.1 (2.5) 8.4 (3.6) 4.2 6.1 3.5 3.5 (133)bp (151)bp (166)bp (26)bp
2QFY12 8,099 4,511 3,588 1,074 2,514 233 2,281 387 2,668 762 1,906 33.4 44.3 31.0 28.2 22.5
% chg (yoy) 21.7 29.3 12.2 7.9 14.1 16.3 13.9 23.8 22.6 24.3 24.3 (345)bp (195)bp (182)bp (4)bp
1HFY13 19,474 11,391 8,083 2,272 5,811 521 5,290 1,182 6,472 1,814 4,658 81.5 41.5 29.8 27.2 22.5
1HFY12 15,584 8,864 6,720 2,030 4,690 457 4,233 830 5,063 1,435 3,628 63.5 43.1 30.1 27.2 22.1
% chg (yoy) 25.0 28.5 20.3 11.9 23.9 14.0 25.0 27.8 26.4 28.4 28.4 (161)bp (25)bp 0bp (45)bp
(%)
0 (2) (4) 2QFY12 3QFY12
Offshore
4QFY12
Onsite
1QFY13
Total volume growth
2QFY13
5.0 4.5
3.8
(0.4)
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
Volume growth
Service wise, revenue growth came in majorly from non-discretionary services such as application maintenance, IMS and testing services, the revenue of which grew by 5.0%, 5.7% and 6.3% qoq respectively. Revenue from one of the companys major revenue contributor service application development grew by 3.4% qoq. Revenues from consulting and package implementation service vertical grew by 2.9% qoq. Services verticals such as application maintenance, IMS, BPO and testing are expected to drive growth for IT companies in a volatile and uncertain macro environment. Out of the six large deals signed, two deals are from one of the fastest growing IT services area of IMS. The company also won eight business transformation deals during 2QFY2013. Revenues from products, platforms and solutions service line declined by 7.5% qoq. This is one of the major focus areas of the company, and the total contract value (TCV) of this service area currently stands at about US$500mn. The company booked ~US$100mn TCV in 2QFY2012.
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 64.5 17.0 21.4 6.8 8.6 4.7 3.4 2.6 30.0 5.5 3.8 0.4 3.4 2.0 5.0 5.7 6.3 (1.6) (0.3) (1.2) 2.9 (7.5) (13.4) 36.8 3.3 2.3 2.0 20.7 8.0 (10.4) 2.9 (4.4) (1.0) 25.8 (6.9) 37.2
Industry-wise, the revenue from financial services and insurance (FSI), the companys anchor industry vertical contributing 33.7% to revenue, grew by just 0.8% qoq, led by a 4.1% qoq growth in revenue from insurance. Revenues from the banking and financial services industry remained almost flat qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI grew by 0.3% qoq. The spending from banks and financial institutions is coming from work related to risk compliance, fraud prevention and regulatory kind of work, but at a slower pace. Manufacturing (contributed 22.1% to revenue) posted a 3.0% qoq revenue growth. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 2.9% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonizing processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. Although demand from European auto companies has moderated, the strong growth in hi-tech and engineering services has kept the momentum in the manufacturing segment. The retail, CPG and logistics (RCL) segment (contributed 24.0% to revenue) again emerged as the major growth driver for the company, recording a 3.9% qoq revenue growth, led by a considerable 8.1% qoq growth in revenues from lifesciences. In CC terms, the revenue from RCL grew by 3.9% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining traction on account of spend related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. The energy utilities, communications & services (ECS) segment (contributed 20.2% to revenue) reported a 3.6% qoq increase in revenues. In CC terms, revenue from this segment declined by 3.7% qoq.
% to revenue 33.7 27.0 6.7 22.1 24.0 17.0 1.7 3.9 1.4 20.2 5.3 9.9 5.0
% growth qoq 0.8 (0.0) 4.1 3.0 3.9 3.2 2.6 8.1 2.6 3.6 18.2 0.6 (3.2)
% growth yoy (1.7) (1.4) (2.9) 12.6 7.9 12.2 2.9 5.6 (19.9) (3.7) (4.3) (2.0) (6.4)
In terms of geographies, revenue growth was primarily led by Europe, which posted a 5.1% qoq decline in revenues in CC terms. Revenue from North America grew by 2.2% qoq in CC terms, while revenues from India declined by 15.4% qoq in CC terms.
16.8
6.3 2.1
7.3 5.1 1.1 2.5 0.8 2.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.8
5 0 (5)
(4.1) (7.2) 2QFY12 3QFY12 North America 4QFY12 Europe 1QFY13 2QFY13 Rest of the world
(10)
Hiring intact
Infosys added 10,420 gross employees in 2QFY2013, of which 5,234 were lateral additions. The net addition number for the quarter stood at 2,610. Attrition, on last twelve month (LTM) basis grew marginally to 15.0% in 2QFY2013 from 14.9% in 1QFY2013. The company has maintained its gross hiring target of 35,000 employees for FY2012 and has not given any outlook for FY2014 hiring.
Utilization rate, including as well as excluding trainees, grew by 240bp and 170bp qoq to 69.6% and 73.3%, respectively. Another major portion of freshers are expected to join in 3QFY2013, which will keep utilization level under pressure.
75
(%)
4QFY12
2QFY13
35 265 33.7 32.6 30.6 (108) (201) 29.1 (151) 34 33 32 31.0 30 29 28 27 26 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
31
Client pyramid
Infosys added 39 new clients during the quarter (relatively weak than previous quarters), taking its total active client base to 715. The companys top client which contributes US$300mn+ moved to lower revenue bracket of US$200mn-300mn due to slight reduction in revenue run-rate from that client. The company witnessed an addition of a few clients in US$1mn-20mn revenue brackets. The top 5 and top10 clients grew well by posting ~7.8% qoq and ~5.7% qoq growth in terms of revenues despite some sluggishness at the top client.
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Guidance disappoints
Infosys has kept its FY2013 yearly guidance unchanged and expects revenue growth of at least 5% yoy to US$7.343bn; however in constant currency terms, the guidance has been scaled down from 6% earlier to 5.7% now, which clearly indicates challenging visibility in the business volumes and managements future expectation. This doesnt include the Lodestone acquisition, which we believe would add ~100bps of growth in FY2013. Also, US$ EPS guidance has been revised down slightly to at least US$2.97 from US$3.03, adjusting it for the currency exchange rate. Taking wage hike as well as INR appreciation into
July 12, 2012
account, the company scaled down FY2013 INR EPS guidance to at least `160.61 from at least `166.46 (at assumed currency rate for INR/USD of `55.0). Post 1HFY2013 performance, the company requires a minimum 3.5% qoq growth rate in the next two quarters to achieve their FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance, which in the current scenario looks a bit stretched.
FY2013 - revised (As on 1QFY13) At least 40,364 At least 166.46 At least 7.34 At least 3.03
FY2013 - revised (As on 2QFY13) At least 39,582 At least 160.61 At least 7.34 At least 2.97
target price of `2,573. In the near term though, we do not expect Infosys to give any considerable absolute upside.
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Apr-12
10x
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
Oct-12
Company Background
Infosys is the second largest IT company in India, employing over 1,50,000 professionals. The company services more than 700 clients across various verticals, such as financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail and healthcare. Infosys has the widest portfolio of service offerings amongst Indian IT companies, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional application development and maintenance to consulting and package implementation to products and platforms.
10
11
12
13
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.4 70 3.6 78 4.2 84 4.3 82 4.1 81 25.0 58.7 25.8 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.5 56.3 24.9 24.9 53.0 24.1 24.6 54.1 23.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.9 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 23.1 109 125 25 421 119 134 35 477 146 162 15 585 159 178 35 659 172 192 35 743 22.0 19.1 5.7 1.0 5.3 15.4 4.4 20.1 17.8 5.0 1.5 4.4 13.4 3.8 16.5 14.8 4.1 0.6 3.4 10.8 3.0 15.0 13.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 9.9 2.7 14.0 12.5 3.2 1.5 2.7 8.8 2.4 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15