2015 CIO Outlook

September, 2008
Dave Newbold
2015 CIO Outlook
2015 Outlook

Business/usage trends

Technology projections

Opportunities for innovators

“The 2015 CIO Outlook

An employee scenario is a point of view on the
future and a roadmap for
IBM’s CIO organization”

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Thinking about 2015
•  We are hardwired for everything new
•  To paraphrase science fiction author William Gibson:
“2015 is here already, it’s just unevenly distributed”

The Net
100 billion PC chips on the Internet

2 million emails per second

1 million IM messages per second

8 terabytes per second traffic

Your brain
255 exabytes magnetic storage
1 million voice queries per hour 100 billion clicks per day

55 trillion links/synapses
2 billion location nodes activated
1 quintillion transistor/neurons

20 petahertz synapse firings

255 exabytes memory

Source: Kevin Kelly, EG Conference, December 4, 2007 (http://www.the-eg.com)

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 Business/usage trends with 2015 impact
•  Post-Globalization environment
•  Environment and Energy

Alignment with regional market and time zones

Smaller, energy efficient supply chains
Emergent cell phone economies in growth countries
Consistency of processes, but local variance
Need to grow appropriate skills for dynamic
business challenges

Computing takes ~5% of global electrical demand

(servers and clients)
76% data center growth ‘05 to ’10 (IDC)
Second Life Avatars, when active consume 71% of per
user average electricity consumption

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 Business/usage trends with 2015 impact
•  Post-Globalization environment
•  Environment and Energy Information doubling every three years
•  Conquering information Text tools are poised to triumph
•  Transparent digital economy Location based business models enabled
•  Mobility Enterprises will leverage their scale

Commerce will be fully digital

Everything will be exposed by customers
Employees increasingly mobile Authenticity and values will prevail
Mobile devices start replacing laptops Transparency will be a business model design
Expect full capability and integration
Application design is task specific
Smart phone is recorder/sensor

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 Business/usage trends with 2015 impact

Gen X and Millennials (“Gen Y”) share radically different

•  Post-Globalization environment work styles; open collaboration, casual management,
•  Environment and Energy integrated social tools and high IT literacy; must
accommodate this to gain benefit
•  Conquering information
Boomers want more flexible transitions to retirement as
•  Transparent digital economy well; e.g., project work that maximizes their value
•  Mobility
•  Generational accommodation
•  The nature of work
•  Consumer driven IT Work and life integrated (vs. balanced)
Many more devices in environment to provide awareness
and flexibility when desired; e.g. conference video from
home office to car to cell
Interruption will be contextual and managed

Consumer IT market is innovative and competitive

Enterprises experimenting with employee choice of devices
Client virtualization provides secure, personalized desktop
downloadable to most devices
IT device burden shifted to employees

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 Technology shifts for 2015

•  Pragmatic, Social Web

•  Insights from exabytes
•  Interface Innovations
•  Cloud computing
•  Green IT and ET
•  Application assembly
•  Visual Business Processes
•  Smart Planet

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 Shift 2015: Pragmatic, Social Web

Web Oriented Architecture (WOA)

Web is the dominant application platform; runs
everywhere
Desktop OS becomes a commodity
Enterprises will utilize virtual client OS VMs for secure,
personal work spaces—downloaded onto any device
Software as a Service (SaaS)
Typical delivery model; applications and data are
integrated in the cloud
Information is commoditized; metadata and contextual
insight are personal
Security and robustness are assumed
Social computing
Fluid, portable and very well defended—across many sites
and/or borders
Reputations acquire legal status as property
Significant resources are deployed to protect identity and
reputation
Privacy and opacity engines, like today’s physical
exclusivity, will be highly refined
Many speculate we will become nomadic again

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 Shift 2015: Insights from Exabytes

Intelligent information infrastructure

Enough data and compute resources to make data reveal itself
with scalable tools (FastBit, MapReduce, Hadoop, etc.) for
correlation and indexing
Data will self-assemble organically for presentation to you
Structured data will be a niche necessity for legacy systems, as
unstructured systems will overwhelm and “close enough” will
suffice
Everyone will be an “info-vore” and very capable of
sophisticated visual analysis of data sets (Humans still
superlative at pattern recognition)
Data clouds will utilize low cost commodity disk drives in
redundant, distributed arrays with location fetch logic (.01 of
today’s GSA cost); data management will be eliminated
Value is in the filter, human and machine generated
Right insight in the right place at the right time (consider
location based marketing)

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 Shift 2015: Interface Innovations

Mobile devices replace laptops

Ambient telepresence will surround us
VHD displays everywhere: walls, surfaces, cars, appliances
Synthesized environments common for remote collaboration
Real world augmentation
Sensors accumulate and network around and on us
Personal Area Networks and distributed mobile devices
(clothes, watch, phone, contacts, glasses, jewelry, implants)
Speech, gesture and air typing (via PAN) input
Retinal projection and brain wave cursors used widely
‘Holo-selves’ on horizon in 2015
Full symmetric immersion of sensing/being in virtual space –
partial enablement available before 2015 (gloves and clothing
provide movement, temperature, pressure, etc.) and the
advent of neural interfaces

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 2015 CIO Outlook opportunities

Transparent external collaboration

Insight for our real world
Expose business processes
Embrace Clouds and consumer IT
Leveraging social energy
Generational inversion

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 Where we are today

•  Simplifying and integrating our enterprise IT

application portfolio
•  Driving global process integration
•  Implemented “Enterprise 2.0” and driving it
deliberately outside
•  Information as a service
•  Social networking, tag, filtering, rating everywhere
•  Social data visualization and analysis services
•  Active global innovation facility (TAP)
•  Many mobile solutions in place
•  Piloting web desktops (SaaS)
•  Tackling very large data sets with internal and
external integration

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 Transparent external collaboration

Our capabilities exposed externally to fully engage the market (2010)

Most work becomes project-oriented; ‘employment’ compact is fluid and evolving
Easily exchange trusted identity and social network information with partners (2012)
Co-creation becomes a way of just working with others; pooled IP can be easily managed and
negotiated on the fly
Enterprise fades as a central physical entity for employees?

Business Value
Deepens our client insight and promotes
closer collaboration on new opportunities.
External social tools enable the Global
Citizen; an employee prepared to succeed
in a dynamic global marketplace where
change is the norm. Transparency allows
clients to understand depth of our
capabilities and build trust rapidly.

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 Insight for our real world
Leverage Hadoop pilots and expand to include the full array of collaboration and business
process data
Close the infrastructure management loop
Autonomics and analytics and visualization
(drive system & network management costs down)
Make enterprise data self cleansing and accessible
More experimentation with contextual delivery
Focus on filters
Low operational cost to user; adaptively social

Business Value
Puts key corporate data in the right place at
the right time and supporting deeper insight
into business functions. Make use of the
ubiquitous sensors in the environment to
provide new services and higher returns.
Provides a mechanism to leverage the
collective insights of your entire organization

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 Visualize business processes
Expose business process flow, attributes and semantics to users
Let them tag elements for reference or annotation
Automate their traversal, if desired
Collate into an accurate process map and apply basic analytics
Visualize it for process owners and users
Provide visual reassembly tools to modify as needed
Find common components (by comparing processes)
Ensure users can participate and refine data
Keep processes dynamic and appropriate to business needs

Business Value
Improves the efficiency and value of all
business processes by exposing the best
methods and revealing the inefficiencies.
Provides process owners with direct data to
improve business outcomes and the
supporting data; saves time, improves
morale.

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 Embrace clouds and consumer IT

Leverage IBM’s Cloud Data Centers

Understand transition barriers (workloads, application redesign, etc.)
Develop financial models for adoption
Expand SaaS web pilots
Deepen offerings for mobile and cell-bound workers
Test client virtualization solutions as downloadable working environment
Study and understand task-specific needs of mobile employees for simplified design
Model finances of employee choice
Users select and manage their own equipment (that meet security standards)
Develop more pro-active compliance probes; use analytics to monitor data, not employees
Pilot model then deploy when security concerns met

Business Value
These new delivery methods promise to
reduce the cost and increase the flexibility
of IT services. Cloud computing and data
storage offer new possibilities for
integration and security of data. Employee
choice give mobile employees the IT
options to select the standard devices most
suitable to their work style.

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 Social energy

Ask IBM employees to innovate on energy technology via social networks

Channel employee’s ‘need to achieve’ to find innovative solutions
Work in the open - build out our external ecosystem network
Innovation focus:
Global carbon lifecycle monitoring of material supply chains
Implementing smart transportation systems
Rethinking IBM facilities (location, need, etc.)
Global development models in a constrained world
Visualizing daily footprint vs. norms
Understanding global perspectives

Business Value
Inspires employees to work a large global
issue together over a significant period;
provides a focus to social computing and
the promise of a more integrated and
trusting global community. An excellent
source for new business opportunities
inside and outside our enterprise.

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 Generational hacking
Globalization ‘skunk works on team dynamics
Allow early tenure IBM teams to select their own IT tools and work styles
Instrument and study
Development ‘Top-coder’-like spin-offs
Services skunk works with visible process and very leveraged compensation
Compare, market and study
Integrate Social Networking with alumni
Keep the conversation open and active
Provide visibility into project work that would be compelling

Business Value
An opportunity to experiment with the work
styles of the future and learn the best
combination of management and open
software platforms that will enable the best in
our younger employees. A great opportunity to
innovate for IBM and our clients.

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 Scenario

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 Thank you
dnewbold@us.ibm.com

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