CA So Eco Petrol

Demanda (Miles de Barriles Diarios)
2007
x Crecimiento Anual Constante

Crecimiento Anual Constante
Pronstico ECOPETROL
1%
3%
Demanda
Crecimiento
Hurto de Combustible (Barriles Diarios)
x Nivel de Hurto Nulo

Pronstico ECOPETROL
61.5
61.5
61.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
62.1
62.7
63.4
64.0
64.6
63.3
65.2
67.2
69.2
71.3
62.3
62.9
63.3
63.5
63.6
1.35% 0.94% 0.59% 0.33% 0.21%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sistema Actual
Ambos Sistemas
0
600
800
0
563
750
0
395
527
0
258
345
0
168
224
0
109
146
MIN
MAX
560
1200
525
1125
369
790
241
517
157
336
102
218
2013
2014
2015
2016
65.3
65.9
66.6
67.3
73.4
75.6
77.9
80.2
63.9
64.4
65.4
66.6
0.41% 0.78% 1.54% 1.94%
2017
67.9
82.7
68.0
2.04%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
71
95
0
46
62
0
30
40
0
19
26
0
13
17
66
142
43
92
28
60
18
39
12
25
Anglica Gmez
Christian Herrera
Roger Yopasa
Parmetros
Costo de Capital (%)
Tarifa $/KWH
Costo por Barril Combustible (miles de $)
Sancin por Demanda no atendida (miles de $/barril)
12.30%
135
72
200
COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 1: Sistema Actual sin modificacin y Poliducto de Oriente arrendado

2007

Capacidad (miles de Barriles Diarios)
Costo Demanda no Atendida (miles de $)
Demanda no Atendida (miles de Barriles Diarios)
Costo Energa (miles de $)
Consumo Anual Energa (KWH)
Costo Mantenimiento (miles de $)
Salarios (miles de $)
Costos Asignados (miles de $)
Costos Ponderados (miles de $)
Costos Servicios (miles de $)
Inversiones (miles de $)
Costo Hurto (miles de $)
Hurto de Combustibles (Barriles Diarios)
Ingresos Adicionales (miles de $)
Costos Totales (miles de $)
61.2
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
VPN COSTOS (miles de $)
#NAME?
2008
2009
2010
61.9
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
63.4
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
63.7
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 2: Sistema Actual sin modificacin y Poliducto de Oriente

2007

60.9
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
2008
2009
2010
62.5
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
62.8
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
64.1
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 3: Sistema Actual modificado y Poliducto de Oriente

2007

60.6
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
4000000
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
2008
2009
2010
62.2
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.3
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.0
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
63.6
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
63.8
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
64.0
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
64.3
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
65.6
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
66.5
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
69.5
70.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
10000000
2000000
7000000
5200000
1600000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
3000000
#NAME?
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
63.9
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.2
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
64.6
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
64.4
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
64.8
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
65.7
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
67.9
110.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2500000
7300000
5400000
2000000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
62.8
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.5
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.6
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
63.6
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
65.6
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
66.8
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
68.0
90.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
8500000
2000000
6000000
5200000
1500000
0
#NAME?
#NAME?
0
#NAME?
ETAPA 4
ETAPA 3
Iteracion
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
VPN AL 1
282,579,244
284,025,734
281,900,173
288,877,800
279,269,551
292,368,029
288,045,417
290,317,486
294,679,450
278,092,673
290,204,780
285,360,421
281,274,524
275,425,501
284,159,380
273,240,623
283,600,047
274,917,266
281,544,499
292,191,107
286,197,446
284,723,186
286,171,996
296,355,853
290,111,075
283,844,464
292,579,878
286,828,083
295,352,343
285,349,654
283,490,449
277,478,742
297,975,104
276,161,972
281,345,298
297,274,348
275,496,627
284,340,440
287,741,308
295,046,849
301,392,247
294,310,612
289,441,627
281,751,403
275,318,760
285,940,839
274,866,631
283,169,222
281,845,413
277,445,979
VPN AL 2
296,344,606
282,433,747
279,907,403
291,756,564
287,862,853
290,411,098
290,030,189
289,171,400
289,066,405
281,968,752
280,986,679
297,824,333
276,745,138
273,646,832
285,453,157
291,856,064
286,424,028
285,481,313
276,660,858
284,014,370
288,862,945
290,807,804
289,439,644
291,142,461
300,650,515
290,650,698
289,816,192
280,470,671
288,382,512
277,875,218
286,113,925
287,571,061
280,193,859
287,461,333
298,596,973
291,314,054
289,168,441
283,056,166
284,956,345
274,010,404
280,822,472
291,158,728
285,234,715
285,039,328
292,136,475
282,075,887
283,740,202
279,674,989
292,113,936
286,683,464
VPN AL 3
266,442,944
263,486,412
278,845,090
261,025,453
264,348,578
273,897,472
257,294,757
275,716,087
274,858,001
270,864,739
265,985,071
282,684,880
278,444,298
265,409,745
261,319,676
268,053,497
256,399,377
268,795,835
258,467,818
254,724,484
256,581,379
271,733,076
265,533,332
264,718,893
257,491,285
277,936,492
268,391,772
269,805,088
259,269,025
266,589,779
262,178,769
274,505,671
272,812,691
263,385,129
262,156,811
274,458,140
263,626,496
271,004,797
267,193,586
271,482,854
260,354,983
286,668,923
276,489,966
275,416,559
286,524,674
271,437,540
277,771,099
272,300,350
268,618,808
266,393,647
E1A1
E1A2
E1A3
E2A1
E2A2
E2A3
E3A1
E3A2
E3A3
E4A1
E4A2
E4A3
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
274,676,372
278,436,892
287,152,777
293,150,572
288,468,327
287,698,718
286,140,321
285,691,320
291,922,527
295,942,063
276,799,586
279,752,757
284,672,945
279,395,440
286,311,576
295,197,680
276,705,593
271,816,454
271,527,134
300,464,118
281,405,116
291,428,427
279,156,867
294,695,095
277,229,603
290,474,782
292,773,465
283,393,115
276,969,814
278,742,149
283,219,809
285,411,940
280,167,665
296,689,926
289,317,457
299,740,151
285,039,728
281,362,660
280,581,743
280,758,198
283,595,580
284,105,144
293,099,125
287,211,695
276,755,095
284,893,917
283,045,385
290,181,951
282,794,795
286,044,684
287,448,674
279,839,102
303,180,343
294,749,892
285,788,955
274,422,874
279,373,115
276,259,515
282,724,076
288,690,220
292,936,097
289,637,887
288,618,618
283,971,257
277,252,617
296,802,675
286,314,762
281,805,503
283,713,030
275,338,042
288,441,098
289,270,583
283,732,953
286,782,017
278,236,840
290,030,975
276,543,791
293,254,171
286,988,804
297,837,930
277,937,490
278,142,408
280,989,808
291,820,536
282,612,021
289,627,299
300,567,401
295,637,657
292,223,234
282,538,678
284,808,374
280,796,591
289,193,043
296,115,537
290,820,684
290,052,841
284,262,646
281,484,708
283,694,309
287,944,330
289,607,862
288,654,767
291,509,013
294,101,019
275,540,014
276,050,741
293,625,965
292,102,373
283,997,288
275,684,306
269,937,392
268,424,636
256,758,835
261,480,961
270,636,613
273,909,848
273,645,801
256,008,665
260,465,838
273,520,148
286,796,870
270,320,784
276,441,873
278,550,235
269,917,850
272,620,111
270,361,434
273,079,010
272,068,591
269,070,665
264,910,839
278,980,760
266,340,829
270,238,071
268,568,666
263,353,572
272,098,593
281,855,219
270,895,067
271,789,454
261,827,477
264,378,819
266,535,572
257,985,056
260,181,352
277,437,847
269,243,099
269,569,138
270,060,728
278,311,740
253,672,229
256,057,619
268,347,242
272,752,958
282,531,174
271,133,270
272,109,173
277,464,171
268,203,068
266,279,438
276,994,018
274,144,782
265,072,728
281,692,744
273,804,994
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
279,225,385
271,531,773
279,482,580
288,987,100
291,145,188
287,823,235
285,312,383
290,770,633
294,995,339
282,323,398
279,935,237
272,645,814
274,496,742
283,860,521
283,610,525
294,581,963
286,088,819
271,270,544
284,337,295
290,070,593
280,228,759
296,392,834
272,365,360
274,136,811
279,304,514
297,366,930
267,105,166
287,152,952
276,502,723
286,047,668
300,680,016
299,928,853
284,806,797
285,859,004
281,195,015
289,142,666
292,321,611
285,184,015
284,406,438
279,308,240
288,721,142
277,886,338
287,196,285
286,140,095
296,328,337
294,370,231
275,645,470
295,076,191
274,852,768
286,166,436
294,708,726
297,652,515
281,491,369
291,984,594
288,467,612
278,239,232
280,470,205
288,897,756
280,949,394
273,507,745
274,752,612
282,514,526
295,079,411
283,319,413
290,648,271
279,581,066
273,359,323
290,256,768
288,003,840
297,791,630
280,306,152
279,576,388
273,795,823
282,538,547
275,794,741
282,350,407
274,663,068
272,494,743
283,550,005
290,497,894
278,710,070
274,094,753
275,245,043
269,816,686
279,671,778
285,920,429
287,050,204
288,765,624
288,603,120
284,123,505
280,094,116
281,902,648
286,434,919
283,090,050
283,849,848
296,524,968
284,645,964
294,604,574
291,669,767
286,192,834
282,975,366
291,809,714
288,408,935
293,517,074
290,238,459
273,710,017
277,426,714
280,799,416
272,536,174
283,811,708
273,246,595
275,655,535
278,031,033
263,966,375
266,789,494
274,391,194
266,719,265
266,136,340
271,568,686
271,119,001
267,553,045
268,834,692
271,165,940
260,905,333
264,914,283
264,450,137
266,895,693
271,514,063
269,051,294
272,264,263
270,729,184
266,875,055
266,513,934
285,221,166
269,629,950
271,877,973
278,738,684
267,474,454
282,472,283
263,695,793
273,387,176
268,859,794
267,316,796
264,970,489
274,201,281
262,811,629
260,931,250
278,431,024
263,163,692
277,766,190
271,419,494
278,379,191
264,454,269
274,673,553
258,799,472
272,863,756
254,161,472
271,086,920
275,469,865
263,251,936
273,925,401
261,724,010
277,406,935
268,172,188
254,673,573
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
285,104,493
285,166,402
282,947,815
292,079,450
284,081,545
291,212,146
282,883,473
276,043,725
298,203,130
290,425,920
282,923,738
302,775,083
286,103,922
293,064,531
280,603,589
284,546,353
292,636,196
290,220,714
277,532,263
270,150,855
285,335,814
282,062,986
287,251,325
283,416,882
290,778,055
288,587,025
280,928,818
293,554,995
288,426,138
288,939,633
287,629,638
295,830,721
290,262,732
289,347,427
276,677,528
288,161,557
283,796,771
286,585,623
288,210,202
294,416,311
282,040,254
283,093,600
285,577,003
291,988,757
280,848,517
286,315,968
285,600,455
290,375,151
284,126,028
292,159,761
279,466,201
290,242,217
286,387,819
288,616,137
288,814,144
278,860,551
301,496,258
271,713,188
277,669,959
279,958,200
286,689,646
291,780,754
287,909,600
277,117,196
281,999,755
282,143,067
286,621,547
284,418,335
286,652,250
286,192,037
288,085,130
279,687,422
277,838,339
280,215,705
283,953,462
291,214,479
284,225,636
290,518,793
273,496,998
281,990,353
266,687,944
258,200,135
270,570,576
271,251,515
272,171,390
260,482,550
268,934,821
266,931,349
273,549,391
268,419,486
275,743,669
275,931,476
282,592,306
275,943,774
258,052,971
262,440,870
274,695,673
267,622,976
279,554,398
262,453,088
269,005,323
275,675,816
281,585,618
281,750,193
260,161,344
265,120,548
277,818,433
271,953,156
274,323,920
259,440,233
263,452,173
263,299,164
269,426,372
261,828,091
259,110,663
267,332,139
262,183,748
270,690,656
273,360,222
263,250,720
ETAPA 3
VPN
214,886,723 Escenario 1 Alternativa 1
VPN Alternativa 1
VPN AL1
267,105,166
270,150,855
271,270,544
271,527,134
271,531,773
271,816,454
272,365,360
272,645,814
273,240,623
274,136,811
274,496,742
274,676,372
274,852,768
274,866,631
274,917,266
275,318,760
275,425,501
275,496,627
275,645,470
276,043,725
276,161,972
276,502,723
276,677,528
276,705,593
276,755,095
276,799,586
276,969,814
277,229,603
277,445,979
277,478,742
277,532,263
277,886,338
278,092,673
278,436,892
278,742,149
279,156,867
279,225,385
279,269,551
279,304,514
279,308,240
279,395,440
279,482,580
279,752,757
279,839,102
279,935,237
280,167,665
280,228,759
280,581,743
280,603,589
280,758,198
280,928,818
Rango
36,075,176
Intervalo
8.644021646
9
Tamao de Clase
4008352.944
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Intervalo de clase
Xi
Xs
267,105,166 271,113,519
271,113,519 275,121,872
275,121,872 279,130,225
279,130,225 283,138,578
283,138,578 287,146,931
287,146,931 291,155,284
291,155,284 295,163,637
295,163,637 299,171,990
299,171,990 303,180,343
Frecuencia Absoluta VPN AL

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
271,113,519 275,121,872 279,130,225 283,138,578 287,146,931 291,155,284
267,105,166 271,113,519 275,121,872 279,130,225 283,138,578 287,146,931
281,195,015
281,274,524
281,345,298
281,362,660
281,405,116
281,491,369
281,544,499
281,751,403
281,845,413
281,900,173
282,062,986
282,323,398
282,579,244
282,794,795
282,883,473
282,923,738
282,947,815
283,045,385
283,169,222
283,219,809
283,393,115
283,416,882
283,490,449
283,595,580
283,600,047
283,610,525
283,796,771
283,844,464
283,860,521
284,025,734
284,081,545
284,105,144
284,159,380
284,337,295
284,340,440
284,406,438
284,546,353
284,672,945
284,723,186
284,806,797
284,893,917
285,039,728
285,104,493
285,166,402
285,184,015
285,312,383
285,335,814
285,349,654
285,360,421
285,411,940
285,691,320
285,788,955
285,859,004
285,940,839
286,044,684
286,047,668
286,088,819
286,103,922
286,140,095
286,140,321
286,166,436
286,171,996
286,197,446
286,311,576
286,585,623
286,828,083
287,152,777
287,152,952
287,196,285
287,211,695
287,251,325
287,448,674
287,629,638
287,698,718
287,741,308
287,823,235
288,045,417
288,161,557
288,210,202
288,426,138
288,467,612
288,468,327
288,587,025
288,721,142
288,877,800
288,939,633
288,987,100
289,142,666
289,317,457
289,347,427
289,441,627
290,070,593
290,111,075
290,181,951
290,204,780
290,220,714
290,262,732
290,317,486
290,425,920
290,474,782
290,770,633
290,778,055
291,145,188
291,212,146
291,428,427
291,922,527
291,984,594
292,079,450
292,191,107
292,321,611
292,368,029
292,579,878
292,636,196
292,773,465
293,064,531
293,099,125
293,150,572
293,554,995
294,310,612
294,370,231
294,416,311
294,581,963
294,679,450
294,695,095
294,708,726
294,749,892
294,995,339
295,046,849
295,076,191
295,197,680
295,352,343
295,830,721
295,942,063
296,328,337
296,355,853
296,392,834
296,689,926
297,274,348
297,366,930
297,652,515
297,975,104
298,203,130
299,740,151
299,928,853
300,464,118
300,680,016
301,392,247
302,775,083
303,180,343
Frecuencias Absolutas
Frecuencias Relativas
fi
Fi
hi
Hi
2
2
1
1
13
15
7.5
8.5
20
35
17.5
26
34
69
34.5
60.5
48
117
58.5
119
37
154
77
196
26
180
90
286
13
193
96.5
382.5
7
200
100
482.5
cia Absoluta VPN AL 1
Frecuencia Absoluta VPN AL 1
291,155,284 295,163,637 299,171,990 303,180,343

287,146,931 291,155,284 295,163,637 299,171,990
VPN ALTERNATIVA 2
VPN AL 2
269,816,686
271,713,188
272,494,743
272,536,174
273,359,323
273,496,998
273,507,745
273,646,832
273,710,017
273,795,823
274,010,404
274,094,753
274,422,874
274,663,068
274,752,612
275,245,043
275,338,042
275,540,014
275,684,306
275,794,741
276,050,741
276,259,515
276,543,791
276,660,858
276,745,138
277,117,196
277,252,617
277,426,714
277,669,959
277,838,339
277,875,218
277,937,490
278,142,408
278,236,840
278,239,232
278,710,070
278,860,551
279,373,115
279,466,201
279,576,388
279,581,066
279,671,778
279,674,989
279,687,422
279,907,403
279,958,200
280,094,116
280,193,859
280,215,705
280,306,152
280,470,205
Rango
i
31,679,573
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Intervalo
8.644021646
9
Tamao Clase
3519952.52
Intervalo de clase
Xi
Xs
269,816,686 273,336,638
273,336,638 276,856,591
276,856,591 280,376,543
280,376,543 283,896,496
283,896,496 287,416,448
287,416,448 290,936,401
290,936,401 294,456,353
294,456,353 297,976,306
297,976,306 301,496,258
Frecuencia Absoluta
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
273,336,638
276,856,591
280,376,543
283,896,496
287,416,448
290,936,401
269,816,686
273,336,638
276,856,591
280,376,543
283,896,496
287,416,448
280,470,671
280,796,591
280,799,416
280,822,472
280,848,517
280,949,394
280,986,679
280,989,808
281,484,708
281,805,503
281,902,648
281,968,752
281,990,353
281,999,755
282,040,254
282,075,887
282,143,067
282,350,407
282,433,747
282,514,526
282,538,547
282,538,678
282,612,021
282,724,076
282,975,366
283,056,166
283,090,050
283,093,600
283,319,413
283,550,005
283,694,309
283,713,030
283,732,953
283,740,202
283,811,708
283,849,848
283,953,462
283,971,257
283,997,288
284,014,370
284,123,505
284,126,028
284,225,636
284,262,646
284,418,335
284,645,964
284,808,374
284,956,345
285,039,328
285,234,715
285,453,157
285,481,313
285,577,003
285,600,455
285,920,429
286,113,925
286,192,037
286,192,834
286,314,762
286,315,968
286,387,819
286,424,028
286,434,919
286,621,547
286,652,250
286,683,464
286,689,646
286,782,017
286,988,804
287,050,204
287,461,333
287,571,061
287,862,853
287,909,600
287,944,330
288,003,840
288,085,130
288,382,512
288,408,935
288,441,098
288,603,120
288,616,137
288,618,618
288,654,767
288,690,220
288,765,624
288,814,144
288,862,945
288,897,756
289,066,405
289,168,441
289,171,400
289,193,043
289,270,583
289,439,644
289,607,862
289,627,299
289,637,887
289,816,192
290,030,189
290,030,975
290,052,841
290,238,459
290,242,217
290,256,768
290,375,151
290,411,098
290,497,894
290,518,793
290,648,271
290,650,698
290,807,804
290,820,684
291,142,461
291,158,728
291,214,479
291,314,054
291,509,013
291,669,767
291,756,564
291,780,754
291,809,714
291,820,536
291,856,064
291,988,757
292,102,373
292,113,936
292,136,475
292,159,761
292,223,234
292,936,097
293,254,171
293,517,074
293,625,965
294,101,019
294,604,574
295,079,411
295,637,657
296,115,537
296,344,606
296,524,968
296,802,675
297,791,630
297,824,333
297,837,930
298,596,973
300,567,401
300,650,515
301,496,258
fi
Fi
hi
Hi
5
5
2.5
2.5
20
25
12.5
15
25
50
25
40
37
87
43.5
83.5
34
121
60.5
144
43
164
82
226
23
187
93.5
319.5
9
196
98
417.5
4
200
100
517.5
ncia Absoluta - VPN AL 2
Frecuencia Absoluta - VPN AL 2
290,936,401
294,456,353
297,976,306
301,496,258
287,416,448
290,936,401
294,456,353
297,976,306
VPN ALTERNATIVA 3
VPN AL 3
253,672,229
254,161,472
254,673,573
254,724,484
256,008,665
256,057,619
256,399,377
256,581,379
256,758,835
257,294,757
257,491,285
257,985,056
258,052,971
258,200,135
258,467,818
258,799,472
259,110,663
259,269,025
259,440,233
260,161,344
260,181,352
260,354,983
260,465,838
260,482,550
260,905,333
260,931,250
261,025,453
261,319,676
261,480,961
261,724,010
261,827,477
261,828,091
262,156,811
262,178,769
262,183,748
262,440,870
262,453,088
262,811,629
263,163,692
263,250,720
263,251,936
263,299,164
263,353,572
263,385,129
263,452,173
263,486,412
263,626,496
263,695,793
263,966,375
264,348,578
264,378,819
Rango
i
33,124,641
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Intervalos
8.644021646
9
Tamao de Clase
3680515.692
Intervalo de clase
Xi
Xs
253,672,229 257,352,745
257,352,745 261,033,260
261,033,260 264,713,776
264,713,776 268,394,292
268,394,292 272,074,808
272,074,808 275,755,323
275,755,323 279,435,839
279,435,839 283,116,355
283,116,355 286,796,870
Frecuencia Absoluta
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
257,352,745
261,033,260
264,713,776
268,394,292
272,074,808
275,755,323
253,672,229
257,352,745
261,033,260
264,713,776
268,394,292
272,074,808
264,450,137
264,454,269
264,718,893
264,910,839
264,914,283
264,970,489
265,072,728
265,120,548
265,409,745
265,533,332
265,985,071
266,136,340
266,279,438
266,340,829
266,393,647
266,442,944
266,513,934
266,535,572
266,589,779
266,687,944
266,719,265
266,789,494
266,875,055
266,895,693
266,931,349
267,193,586
267,316,796
267,332,139
267,474,454
267,553,045
267,622,976
268,053,497
268,172,188
268,203,068
268,347,242
268,391,772
268,419,486
268,424,636
268,568,666
268,618,808
268,795,835
268,834,692
268,859,794
268,934,821
269,005,323
269,051,294
269,070,665
269,243,099
269,426,372
269,569,138
269,629,950
269,805,088
269,917,850
269,937,392
270,060,728
270,238,071
270,320,784
270,361,434
270,570,576
270,636,613
270,690,656
270,729,184
270,864,739
270,895,067
271,004,797
271,086,920
271,119,001
271,133,270
271,165,940
271,251,515
271,419,494
271,437,540
271,482,854
271,514,063
271,568,686
271,733,076
271,789,454
271,877,973
271,953,156
272,068,591
272,098,593
272,109,173
272,171,390
272,264,263
272,300,350
272,620,111
272,752,958
272,812,691
272,863,756
273,079,010
273,246,595
273,360,222
273,387,176
273,520,148
273,549,391
273,645,801
273,804,994
273,897,472
273,909,848
273,925,401
274,144,782
274,201,281
274,323,920
274,391,194
274,458,140
274,505,671
274,673,553
274,695,673
274,858,001
275,416,559
275,469,865
275,655,535
275,675,816
275,716,087
275,743,669
275,931,476
275,943,774
276,441,873
276,489,966
276,994,018
277,406,935
277,437,847
277,464,171
277,766,190
277,771,099
277,818,433
277,936,492
278,031,033
278,311,740
278,379,191
278,431,024
278,444,298
278,550,235
278,738,684
278,845,090
278,980,760
279,554,398
281,585,618
281,692,744
281,750,193
281,855,219
282,472,283
282,531,174
282,592,306
282,684,880
285,221,166
286,524,674
286,668,923
286,796,870
fi
Fi
hi
Hi
10
10
5
5
17
27
13.5
18.5
26
53
26.5
45
34
87
43.5
88.5
44
131
65.5
154
35
166
83
237
21
187
93.5
330.5
9
196
98
428.5
4
200
100
528.5
ncia Absoluta - VPN AL 3
Frecuencia Absoluta - VPN AL 3
275,755,323
279,435,839
283,116,355
286,796,870
272,074,808
275,755,323
279,435,839
283,116,355
Estadstica Descriptva
VPN ALTERNATIVA 1
Medidas
Media
Error tpico
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta
Nivel de confianza(95,0%)
Valor
285710809.2
510048.0318
285386180.6
#N/A
7213168.441
5.20298E+13
-0.382233777
0.043270104
36075176.49
267105166.5
303180343
57142161844
200
1005792.554
Estadstica Descriptiva
VPN LTERNATIVA 2
Medidas
Media
Error tpico
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Curtosis
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta
Valores
285078368.5
459849.8338
285137021.2
#N/A
6503258.717
4.22924E+13
-0.443738298
0.019384337
31679572.68
269816685.6
301496258.3
57015673710
200
906803.8892
Estadistica Descriptiva
VPN ALTERNATIVA 3
Medidas
Media
Error tpico
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Curtosis
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta
Valores
269312172.3
497238.5805
269497755.1
#N/A
7032015.443
4.94492E+13
-0.322839787
0.056032648
33124641.22
253672229.1
286796870.3
53862434467
200
980532.8729
0.02611102

CA So Eco Petrol

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CA So Eco Petrol

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Demanda (Miles de Barriles Diarios)

x Crecimiento Anual Constante

Hurto de Combustible (Barriles Diarios)

x Nivel de Hurto Nulo

COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 1: Sistema Actual sin modificacin y Poliducto de Oriente arrendado

Demanda (Miles de Barriles Diarios)

VPN COSTOS (miles de $)

COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 2: Sistema Actual sin modificacin y Poliducto de Oriente

Demanda (Miles de Barriles Diarios)

VPN COSTOS (miles de $)

COSTOS ALTERNATIVA 3: Sistema Actual modificado y Poliducto de Oriente

Demanda (Miles de Barriles Diarios)

VPN COSTOS (miles de $)

Frecuencia Absoluta VPN AL

cia Absoluta VPN AL 1

Frecuencia Absoluta VPN AL 1

291,155,284 295,163,637 299,171,990 303,180,343

ncia Absoluta - VPN AL 2

Frecuencia Absoluta - VPN AL 2

ncia Absoluta - VPN AL 3

Frecuencia Absoluta - VPN AL 3

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