Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Agricultural Commodities
Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
FCRA Bill will give farmers option to hedge against price fluctuations
Once Parliament gives its assent to the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill cleared by the Cabinet on Thursday, farmers ability to hedge the risk of price fluctuations in their produce will increase. This is because of option and derivative products being introduced as part of the change. Moreover, market participants say commodity exchanges would be able to offer trading in intangible products, such as weather derivatives, instead of the current practice of trading only in items that can be physically delivered. A weather derivative would allow farmers to hedge say, against a possible failure of monsoon. Significantly, the futures trade in farm commodities, stymied by periodic bans, could thrive as a result of the proposed changes. Former Forward Markets Commission (FMC) chairman BC Khatua, who had fiercely fought for greater autonomy for the regulator, said: The proposal in the Bill to give more powers to the FMC would ease the trust deficit among some stakeholders, who are otherwise interested in hedging risks, about potential regulatory arbitrage. The FMC would be able to generate its revenue through transaction fees and hire quality manpower and garner other resources to better regulate the market, Khatua added. Experts also say launches of greater products would expose the market to greater manipulative elements and tighter vigil by the FMC will be required to stem their presence. (Source: Financial Express)
as on Oct 5, 2012
WoW MoM YoY
Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz
Source: Reuters
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana spot as well as futures settled marginally lower by 0.31% on Friday ahead of profit booking after gaining for two straight sessions. Emergence of festive demand emerging coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets also supported the prices. CACP has recommended a hike in minimum support price (MSP) of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 Rabi season to boost the production of pulses. As per the statement of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, India has raised the subsidy on imported pulses to Rs. 20/kg from the earlier Rs. 10/kg, this move is expected to increase pulses imports. According to the first advance estimates, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012. Prices declined last week on improved rains and reports of expected higher output in Australia, the largest supplier of chickpeas to India. In Australia, chana production rose by 70.5 percent to 8.27 lakh tonnes from 4.85 lakh tonnes in previous year.
Source: Telequote
st
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4436 4523 Prev day -0.31 -0.31
as on Oct 5, 2012 % change WoW MoM 0.30 -8.31 2.19 -5.50 YoY 28.98 30.99
Source: Reuters
Ongoing recovery in monsoon and above average rains in the past few days is showing better prospects for Rabi pulses sowing in the coming days. Monsoon has recovered across India, especially in Rajasthan, one of the major chana growing states, and may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.
Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support
4250-4285
Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade on a positive note today due to emergence of fresh demand at lower levels and reduction in special margin on long side of chana. Estimated lower kharif pulses output may also support the upside in the prices during the intraday. In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive on account of supply tightness. However, higher imports from Australia may cap the sharp upside in the prices.
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot as well as futures closed 0.16% and 2.26% lower on reports of halt in sugar exports and increase in imports due to lower international prices. With the release of higher sugar quota for the next two months prices declined further during the intraday however, prices closed on a flat note on expectations of festive season demand. The Government has decided to make available a quantity of 40 lakh tons of non-levy quota, for the months of October and November 2012. Indian mills have signed deals to buy up to 450,000 tonnes of Brazilian raw sugar for delivery from October to December as a gap between domestic and overseas prices widens, making room for the first imports in more than two years, five dealers told Reuters. Millers based in western and southern India and global trading firms bought sugar at around $500/ton a CIF basis, as the price in the domestic market has jumped more than 23% to $680/ tn in the past three months. ICE raw sugar and life white sugar futures traded marginally lower and settled 0.12% and 0.28% lower on Friday.
Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3800
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.16 -0.65 MoM 2.70 YoY 22.58
Rs/qtl
3330
-2.26
-5.51
-3.45
21.00
Source: Reuters
International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Oct '12 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 597.3 478.67
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.12 -0.28 2.61 1.94 MoM 8.17 13.31 YoY -12.17 #N/A
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl
Outlook
Sugar prices may decline in the coming weeks amid higher sugar quota for the next two months and reports of raw sugar import after almost 2 years. However, a delay in crushing in Maharashtra by a month and lower cane output estimates may restrict sharp fall in the short term.
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Futures as well as spot continued to trade on
bullish note for second straight session taking cues from the bullish international soy market. Also festive demand for edible oil supported the upside. The Futures settled on a 4% upper limit and spot settled 4.13% higher As per NCDEX, Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long Side on Soya bean October 2012 expiry contract will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Monday, October 08, 2012. CBOT Futures recovered and settled higher by 1.29% on reports that China is buying Soybean from U.S. US soybeans are 41 pct harvested vs 22 pct week ago and 19 pct to nd 5-year average as on 2 October 2012. In Brazil planting has started 10 days earlier amid good rains. If rains continue in the coming weeks as forecast, Brazil could churn out 81 million tonnes of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken US as the world's top soybean producer, according to the USDA. Brazils grain Association expects the number 2 producers of soybean to produce record 81.3 mn tn in 2012-13. In the domestic markets, as on 20 September, 2012, Oilseeds have been sown in 174.39 lakh ha so far, compared with 178.16 lakh ha same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.9 lakh ha. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13. However, drop in area under groundnut, sunflower & castor seed may lead to lower output of these oilseeds in 2012-13 which is estimated 9.6% lower at 187.8 lakh tn.
th
Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3027 3075 652 632.9 Prev day 4.13 4.01 0.39 1.70
as on Oct 5, 2012
Source: Reuters
as on Oct 5, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTOct '12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1551.5 50.76 Prev day 0.00 -0.47 WoW -3.09 -2.72 MoM -11.24 -11.51 YoY 12.47 -11.41
Source: Reuters
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 2.70 4.00 -7.11 -9.67
Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Oct '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Oct '12 Futures
MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg
Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled 1.7% higher ahead of festive
demand and rise in prices in the international market. Although, exports are high the overall stocks of Malaysian palm oil are higher on the back of seasonally higher yield. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-25 rose 8 percent to 1,170,720 tonnes from 1,084,343 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-25. Indias edible oil imports should rise 5.4 percent to a record 10.31 million tonnes in 2012/13, with the entire increase met by palm oil. India imported 112,611 tn of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28 percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328 tn, up from 783,315 tn in the previous month (Source: Sea of India).
Source: Reuters
RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4000 3847 Prev day -2.44 2.89
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl
valid for Oct 6, 2012 Support 603-610 3035-3060 3830-3865 400-406 Resistance 626-632 3140-3175 3945-3980 418-424.50
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper traded sideways yesterday. Emergence of festive demand as well as low supplies in the domestic supported the prices. Farmers are unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels. Reports that FMC has asked NCDEX to find out if there were any erratic trades in Pepper has pressurized prices. Traders are buying pepper directly from the farmers. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is said to be low due to huge price parity. The Spot as well as the November Futures settled marginally lower by 0.04% and 0.06% on Friday. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,600/tonne(C&F) while Indonesia Austa is quoted at $6,750/tonne (FOB). Vietnam was offering 550GL at $6,900/tonne. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).
Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 42147 43190 % Change Prev day -0.04 -0.36
as on Oct 5, 2012 WoW -0.09 -0.76 MoM 1.79 2.69 YoY 21.63 24.43
Source: Reuters
Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl
Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a positive note today due to low supplies in the domestic markets. Festive season buying is also expected support prices. However, reports that FMC has asked NCDEX to find out any irregularities in pepper trade may cap sharp upside.
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera prices traded with a positive bias yesterday due to low arrivals in the domestic markets. Expectations of better export figures have also supported the prices at lower levels. However, reports of higher carryover stocks as compared to last year restricted sharp gains. Good rains in Gujarat, thereby expectations of better sowing prospects ahead of the rabi sowing have also pressurized the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.49% and 1.85% higher on Friday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Around 10 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,600 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14537 13883 Prev day 0.49 1.85
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change WoW 0.00 -0.18 MoM -2.47 1.50 YoY -2.84 -3.43
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
Market Highlights
Prev day -2.05 -2.21
Outlook
Jeera futures may trade on a positive note today. Prices may find support at lower levels on expectations of higher export figures. However, good rains in Gujarat and higher carryover stocks may cap any sharp gains. In the medium term (September-October 2012), prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 5289 5388
Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a negative note yesterday for the third consecutive day after reports that FMC asked NCDEX to find out if there are any erratic trades in Turmeric kept the prices under check. Higher stocks with the stockists also pressurized the prices. However, a reduction in the special cash margin on the long side supported the prices in the Futures at lower levels. Turmeric has been sown in 0.57 lakh hectares in A.P as on 03/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 2.05% and 2.21% lower on Friday. Special Cash Margin of 40% on the Long side shall be reduced to 20% (cash) on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Turmeric w.e.f. beginning of day Wednesday, September 26, 2012.
Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl
valid for Oct 6, 2012 Support 13790-13940 5340-5410 Resistance 14250-14420 5520-5570
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a negative note today on reports that FMC has asked NCDEX to find out any erratic trades in turmeric. However, a reduction in the special cash margin, lower sowing figures and lower arrivals may support prices.
www.angelcommodities.com
Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Kapas futures settled 1.17% higher ahead of bargain buying along with short coverings. ICE cotton Futures closed lower by 0.85% on account of pick up in global harvesting in key countries. Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 14% is harvested as compared to 10% a week ago, versus 15% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 42% in Good/Excellent state as compared to 43% a week ago, and 29% same period a year ago.
Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 911 15810
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.17 -1.09 0.00 -2.53 MoM -8.99 -2.53 YoY #N/A -17.35
Source: Reuters
International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 69.8 81.35
as on Oct 5, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.85 0.13 0.00 0.00 MoM -6.80 0.00 YoY -32.46 -29.20
Source: Reuters
Outlook
Kapas futures in intraday is expected to trade sideways as ongoing harvesting in the key states coupled with new cotton crop arrivals from the northern states might pressurize the prices. However, prices in spot market are nearing its MSP, which would restrict any major fall. Also Farm Minister has lowered the output estimates of cotton for the 2012-13 season, that will provide support to the prices in the short term. However, in the international front, cotton harvesting has begun globally which might cap a sharp upside in medium term.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX October Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale
valid for Oct 6, 2012 Support 885-900 883-899 15550-15670 Resistance 925-935 923-932 15960-16050
www.angelcommodities.com