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Interested Parties Jill Normington September 20, 2012

The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the 8th Congressional District of Wisconsin. Interviews were conducted September 18-19, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is 4.9 percentage points.

FINDINGS Jamie Wall is in position is to defeat incumbent Congressman Reid Ribble. With just over six weeks to go, Jamie Wall has closed to within six points, 41%-47%.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Wall

Ribble

Undecided

48% 33% 19%

47% 41%

12%

June

September

Since June, Wall has increased his support among all partisan groups. Notably, Wall currently only gets 79% of the vote among Democrats, while President Obama and U.S. Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin both get at least 90%. He clearly still has considerable room for growth among his own partisans. In the last three months, Wall has pulled into the lead among seniors (46% to 45%) and women (50% to 39%). Among voters who know both candidates, often an indication of the direction of a race, Wall leads Ribble 49%41%. Among voters who have seen TV ads about both Ribble and Wall, Wall leads 49%-38%.

Even though this district is wholly contained in the inexpensive Green Bay media market, perceptions of Ribble remain poor and far below the critical 50% for an incumbent. Despite over a month of positive advertising, he has been unable to improve his position. Ribble still has a strongly net negative job rating. Just 39% rate Ribbles performance as a member of Congress positively while 52% rate his performance negatively. Among Independents, his job rating is even lower at 23%65%. Ribbles favorable rating remains low. He has a favorable rating of just 37% positive and 36% negative. In June, it was 36%-33%.

The political environment has also improved for Wall. In June, President Obama trailed Governor Romney 44% to 49% and today that margin has narrowed to just one point, 46%-47%. The improvement in the U.S. Senate race is even more dramatic. Three months ago, Congresswoman Baldwin trailed 36% to 52%. She now leads Governor Thompson, 50% to 42%. Improvements in the perceptions of the Democrats above Wall on the ballot can only help. On television, Ribble and the NRCC have combined to spend about $400,000 to Walls $160,000. Despite that higher than 2:1 disadvantage, Wall has significantly improved his standing and is poised to take this seat back. With 47 days to go, if Wall continues to have the resources to solidify his message of being a small businessman who will get things done and protect Medicare and Social Security, he can win in November.

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