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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN
Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey
fahjan@gyte.edu.tr
HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY LOSS RESULTS
SEISMIC HAZARD
Deterministic
Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motion Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered
Probabilistic
Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
Attenuation Relationship
log(N)
RECURRENCE
F1
F2
Area source
distance
Probability of exceedance
Acceleration
SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000)
The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)
The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD 1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)
The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present
Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS
Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)
Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
T0
TS
1.0
Period
National Level
City Level
(District & Sub-district)
Building Level
Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city
Members Capacity
ELEMENTS AT RISK
Observed Vulnerability
Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data
Calculated Vulnerability
Based on computed performance of the building class
Limitations
Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters Regional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building
HAZUS, 2003
EMS-1998
Koeri, 2002
Limitations
Not based on damage data Non-structural failure can not be considered
HAZUS, 2003
IST, 2004
Classification of Casualties
Severity 1 Severity 2 Severity 3 Severity 4
Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously Instantaneously killed or mortally injured
Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I )
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings Masonry and plain concrete buildings Low rise (1-3 stories) Mid rise (4-6 stories) High-rise (more than 6 stories)
Number of stories ( J )
Construction date ( K )
1. 2.
Spectral Displacement Based Loss Spectral Displacement Based Loss Estimation Analysis Estimation Analysis
Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Input Economic Loss Data Parameters
Input Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Input Casualties Loss data Parameters
Transportation Systems
Highway Systems: A highway transportation system consists of roadways, bridges and tunnels. ( geographical location, classification, and replacement cost of the system components) Highway Roads
Major Roads Urban Roads
Highway Bridges
Waste Water
StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koeriloss software. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of Gebze Institute of Technology, Turkey. Major Updates
Integrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.
Options Icons
Start Analyis
Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1-3 Floors (One Building of 2 Floors ) Before After >
<1985 1985 Concrete Type Reinforced Steel Type X Grids Spaces Y Grids Spaces Floor Height Internal Column Dimension (Floor 1) Internal Column Dimension (Floor 2) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 1) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 2) Shear wall Thickness Internal Beam Dimensions External Beam Dimesions Slab Type Slab Thickness Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%) Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%) 200 kg/cm2 275 Mpa 4.5 m 4.5 m 3.5-3.0 m 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm no 30 x 50 cm 30 x 50 cm RC solid slab 15 cm 0.6 0.5 300 kg/cm2 400 Mpa 4.0 m 4.0 m 3.0 -2.75 m 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 30 cm 70x25 cm 50x25 cm Rib slap 25 0.8 0.8
Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111)
Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)
0.25
0.20
Sa (g)
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00 0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Sd (m)
Thank you