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Lus Dias CCIAM - Climate Change Research Group FCUL - Campo Grande, Edifcio C1, offices 1.4.21 and 1.4.39

Lisbon 1749-016 Lisbon PT +351217500387 +351217500386 lfdias@fc.ul.pt A multi-criteria approach for flood risk mapping evaluation using depthdamage curves. The Algs stream case - Portugal. authors L. Dias (1,2), F. Braunschweig (3), N. Grosso (1), R. Jacinto (1), P. Garrett (1). (1) CCIAM - Climate Change Research Group, Faculty of Ciencies of the University of Lisbon; (FCUL) Campo Grande, Edifcio C1, offices 1.4.39 P-1749-016 Lisbon Portugal. (2) Faculty of Architecture, TU Lisbon,(Phd candidate) Portugal; Rua S Nogueira, Plo Universitrio, Alto da Ajuda, office 5.1.3, 1349-055 Lisboa, Portugal (3) Action Modulers, Consultores de Segurana; Rua Cidade de Frehel, Bloco B, n 12, 2640 - 469 Mafra, Portugal. abstract descriptors 1 Climate Change abstract descriptors 2 urbanization and land surface sealing abstract descriptors 3 surficial runoff abstract descriptors 3 Extremes: magnitude and frequency abstract descriptors 4 Economic impacts (agriculture, transportation, hydropower, water quantity/quality, inundation, floods, ...) abstract descriptors 4 Social impacts (public health, water availability, public water supply, agric water supply, food supply, political tensions, ...) abstract descriptors 5 Adaptation abstract descriptors 5 Costs and benefits abstract descriptors 6 Methodology abstract descriptors 6 Uncertainty abstract descriptors 6 Hydrological models abstract descriptors 6 Impact models topicidnum ,T15,T16, coretext This paper presents the main conclusions of the application of multi-criteria analysis to assess flooding risk, using depth-damage curves. The methodology for the evaluation of flooding risk is the result of research conducted in the context of an ongoing doctoral thesis in urbanism. This thesis is provisionally entitled City, climate change and floods. A contribution to the urban resilience study in a context of extreme precipitation and is being developed under the project Floods and Flood Risk Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) in collaboration with the

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Portuguese Insurance Association. The evaluation is carried out in the catchment area of Algs characterized by its small size, strong urban occupation and where torrential rainfall occurs with some frequency. Taking into account the exploratory studies performed during the definition of the EU Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks, depth-damage curves were used for this risk evaluation. A set of depth-damage curves were selected from reference European studies (e.g. MERK-study - Germany), according to their suitability to the study area. Those curves were complemented with three others, estimated using flood data (e.g., water height, velocity) obtained by hydrological modeling of historical flooding episodes and the respective material losses recorded by insurers during the last 11 years. The data included in this study was provided by an inquiry done to Portuguese insurance companies, corresponding to a universe of 57% of the total national floods related insurances. In total, seven depth-damage curves for different categories from other studies are considered. The estimated curves were evaluated in terms of uncertainty using the Monte Carlo method to determine the confidence intervals for each curve. The damage categories analyzed correspond to tangible, direct, primary damage (e.g. walls, contents, and inventory) and the estimated curves refer to walls, home and commercial/services contents. The pairwise comparison method for multiple decision makers was applied to cross the different categories of damage used in the final flood risk map. The weights given by this method and the correspondent matrix were obtained by the method of Delphi surveys. The risk analysis covers different return periods and is complemented by a functional assessment of buildings exposed to flooding. It remains to note that this is a pioneering work in Portugal as it adopts depth-damage curves as methodology to create risk mapping. In the future the same methodology will be used to assess flood risk in climate change scenarios and compared with the study presented here. oral presentation, poster possible

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