Introduction to the South China Sea Dispute

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Graduate Studies in Strategy & Defence Strategic and Defence Studies Centre The Australian National University September 26, 2012

Outline
Geophysical Nature Natural Resources Sea Lanes UN Convention on Law of the Sea Extent of claims Physical Occupation

Geo-physical Nature
Three main features Paracel Islands Macclesfield Bank Spratly Islands

Notes Pages
Scope of South China Sea could include all the way up to Taiwan, International Hydrographic Organisation , which has UN observer status. South China Sea two major island archipelagoes Parcels (Woody Island) and Spratlys plus Macclesfield bank and Pratas. No authoritative definition of which features are included in Paracels or Spratlys. China seized western Paracels, Crescent group, in January 1974. Note location on map of Scarborough Shoal not part of Spartlys and Indonesias Natuna island Hainan Island Major Chinese naval base

Natural Resources
Hydrocarbon resources
Oil proven reserves R = 7.7 billion barrels Oil estimates R = 28-213 billion barrels Natural gas estimates R = 266 trillion cubic feet

Fisheries
Depletion due to over fishing and pollution Fishermen going further out to disputed waters

Notes Pages
The region has proven oil reserves of around 7.7 billion barrels, with an estimate of 27-28 to 213 billion barrels in total. Natural gas reserves are estimated to total around 266 trillion cubic feet. US Energy Information Administration (March 2008). Natural gas might be the most abundant hydrocarbon resource in the SCS. Most of the hydrocarbon fields explored in the SCS regions of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines contain natural gas, not oil. Estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey and others indicate that about 60 to 70 per cent of the region's hydrocarbon resources are natural gas. Fisheries: fishing has emerged as a larger potential driver of conflict. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam rely on the sea as an economic lifeline. And China is the largest consumer and exporter of fish in the world. And as overfishing continues to deplete coastal stocks through Southeast Asia, fishermen are venturing out further into disputed waters. One-third of worlds biodiversity.

Sea Lanes

Notes Pages
The South China Sea is a semi-enclosed maritime area that straddles the worlds second most important sea lanes. Over 40,000 ships pass through the South China Sea each year. These shipping lanes carry nearly half of global shipping and an estimated seventy per cent of crude oil imported from the Middle East and Africa to the major economies of East Asia including China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. 10 million barrels of oil pass through Malacca St. each year. 100,000 ships transit Straits of Malacca and Singapore annually >25% of worlds traded goods pass through South China Sea 25% of all oil shipments carried by sea pass through Straits (11 million barrels or 1.7 mission cubic metres per day) Worlds second busiest sea lines of communication >1 trillion dollars of U.S. commerce One-third of world shipping passes through SCS. Worlds second busiest sea lane. 50% of world annual merchant fleet tonnage goes via three straits; Malacca, Lombok and Sunda.

UN Convention on Law of the Sea

A Constitution for the worlds Oceans Does not address sovereignty claims Focus on sovereign jurisdiction Exclusive Economic Zones Continental Shelf Archipelagic state Islands/rocks/features International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

High Seas
Military activities contested by China and the US

Innocent passage

Notes Pages
Contiguous zone 1. In a zone contiguous to its territorial sea, described as the contiguous zone, the coastal State may exercise the control necessary to: (a) prevent infringement of its customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations within its territory or territorial sea; (b) punish infringement of the above laws and regulations committed within its territory or territorial sea. 2. The contiguous zone may not extend beyond 24 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured.

Claimants: China Taiwan Vietnam Philippines Malaysia Brunei

Chinas 9-dash U-shaped line laying claim to historic waters (80% of the South China Sea)

Overlapping maritime zones

EEZs based on UNCLOS Chinas claim to historic rights

Features Occupied/Marked

Notes Pages
Estimates vary on the number of islands and rocks each country occupies. On this Map (previous slide): Vietnam is shown occupying 26; Philippines 10; China 8, Malaysia 7.

Physical Occupation
Country Features Occupied

Vietnam Philippines China Malaysia Taiwan Brunei

21-26 8-10 7-8 5-7 1-2 0

Notes Pages
Island features in South China Sea are occupied by 5 countries. Intermixed. Vietnam 26, Philippines 10, China 8, Malaysia 7, Taiwan 1, Brunei 0. It is estimated that between 43 and 48 islands, rocks and other features in the Spratlys are currently occupied or hold sovereignty markers. Vietnam occupies between 2126 islands and features, the Philippines 8-10, China 7-8, Malaysia 5-7, and Taiwan, one. Brunei does not occupy or claim any island or feature. China occupies all of the Paracel Islands but sovereignty is contested by Vietnam.

South Johnson Reef (left) and Fiery Cross Reef (below)

March 1988 China and Vietnam fought a naval engagement. China occupied South Johnson and Fiery Cross Reefs

Mischief Reef (China) 1995, 2005, 2012

China occupied Mischief Reef late 1994/early 1995.

Scarborough Shoal (Philippines)

Woody Island/Yongxing (China)

Sansha City, Woody Island

Truong Sa Lon (Vietnam)

Australia & South China Sea

Introduction to the South China Sea Dispute

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