Currencies Daily Report

Monday| September 24, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| September 24, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
as on September 21, 2012 Prev. day 2.5 2.2 -0.1 0.0 1.0 0.6 -0.6 0.3 1.1 0.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 0.0 WoW 2.0 1.6 -0.1 -0.4 -3.8 -0.3 -1.3 -0.1 -6.2 0.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.3 0.1 MoM 5.7 5.5 3.2 3.3 7.5 4.3 5.0 0.4 -3.4 6.3 12.9 8.2 3.0 0.3 YoY 15.6 14.6 26.5 25.2 18.6 11.2 15.1 6.4 15.4 2.1 -5.4 8.8 -9.6 3.2

Highlights
Belgium NBB Business Climate declined 11.6 percent for September. US Dollar Index strengthen 0.7 percent week on week.

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P 5691.2 18752.8 13579.47 1460.2 15991.1 2002.4 61320.1 9110.0 92.89 1775.50 3456.70 8292.75 483.25 99.87

Asian markets are trading on a weak note as the talks amongst European leaders to resolve the European debt crisis have come to a deadlock. Further, major economies are showing signs of slowing down and are witnessing job cuts which are also keeping the markets sentiments weak.

FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and ended in appreciation of 0.7 week on week due to rise in the risk aversion initially observing weak economic data from the US and China but stimulus measures announced boosted market sentiments towards the end erasing some of the losses. The Index however ended in appreciation. US equities also swung between gains and losses and finally ended on a mixed note. Unfavorable data from the economy had caused bearish market sentiments. The currency touched a weekly high of 79.76 and closed at 79.40 on Friday.

NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.7 percent in the last week. The currency appreciated taking cues from upbeat domestic market sentiments and selling of dollars by the banks. Approval of the FDI in the retail and aviation also supported appreciation in the currency. Additionally, governments move to cut in the tax on overseas borrowing by local companies also helped rupee to appreciate Further, firmness in the Indian equities also led to appreciation in the Indian rupee. The currency touched a weekly low of 53.325 and closed at 54.26 on Friday. For the current month FII inflows totalled at Rs. 9,145.30 crores till 21 September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. st 72,214.90 crores till 21 September 2012. Outlook In todays session, we expect rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments and strength in the DX. Further, month end dollar demand from the oil importers will also cause depreciation in the Indian rupee.
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US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.40 53.36
53.49 53.49

as on September 21, 2012 Prev. day -0.1 1.7

-1.57 -1.57

WoW 0.7 1.7

-1.49 -1.50

MoM -2.7 3.8

-3.77 -3.77

YoY 0.4 -7.1

10.51 10.64

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for September 24, 2012 Support 53.20/52.90 Resistance 53.65/53.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| September 24, 2012 Euro (% change)
as on September 21, 2012 Last Prev. day 0.1 1.6
-1.34

Euro/INR
WoW -1.1 2.9
-2.43

MoM 3.7 0.3

0.63

YoY -3.6 -3.6

5.11

Euro declined 1.1 percent week on week on the back of negative global market sentiments along with concerns that talks amongst European leaders to overcome the crisis is coming to a stalemate. European leaders are disagreeing over the banking union, Greece ongoing debate on how to meet the bailout commitments. Further strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched a weekly low of 1.2919 and closed at 1.2979 on Friday. Outlook We, expect Euro to trade on a negative note on the back of bearish global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Additionally, the ongoing disagreements amongst the European leaders over the banking union are also expected to pressurize the currency on the downside. However, favorable data expected during the day might cushion sharp depreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.10/68.70 69.70/70.0 valid for September 24, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.2979 69.24
69.40

69.4

-1.39

-2.44

0.58

5.10

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Pound appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent taking cues from mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unfavorable economic data from the country coupled with strength in the DX. It touched a high of 1.6309 during the week and closed at 1.6227 on Friday. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Pound to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) valid for September 24, 2012 Support Resistance

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.6227 86.59
86.96

as on September 21, 2012

Prev. day 0.1 1.6

-1.13

WoW 0.1 1.6

-1.34

MoM 2.6 1.3

-0.67

YoY 5.8 -13.9

14.94

86.95

-1.13

-1.31

-0.66

14.93

Source: Reuters

Sideways

86.60/86.20

87.20/87.65

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| September 24, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from the country also supported upside in the currency. It touched a high of 77.44 during the last week and closed at 78.14 on Friday. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Yen to appreciate on the back negative global market sentiments and thereby rise in the demand for this low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 24, 2012 Support 67.90/67.50 Resistance 68.60/69.0

JPY (% change)
Last 78.14 0.6821 68.31 68.32 Prev day -0.1 1.6 -1.62 -1.60

as on September 21, 2012 WoW -0.3 1.5 -1.89 -1.88 MoM -0.6 3.2 -2.29 -2.26 YoY 2.5 -5.0 7.59 7.79

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 24, 2012

Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes German Ifo Business Climate Country Japan Euro Time (IST) 5:20 am 1:30 pm Actual Forecast 102.9 Previous 102.3 Impact Medium High

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