The war is not over

By Bernard Finel and Jim Ludes - 06/16/11 02:00 PM ET Leon Panetta will face a number of daunting tasks as the country's first Democratic Secretary of Defense in more than 14 years from leading the Department of Defense in a time of war to managing the defense budget in a time of fiscal constraint. In taking on these important tasks, it is vital that the former director of central intelligence not lose sight of one fact: the war against al Qaeda and its allies is not over. In fact, the story of the "War on Terror" over the last 15 months is one of stalemate. Despite tactical successes against al Qaeda, of which the killing of bin Laden is just the latest, the underlying trends in Islamist violence are troubling. In 2010, there were 2,534 attacks worldwide, up from 2,110 in 2009. There were only 945 such attacks in 2005 - the first year for which the National Counter Terrorism Center has reliable numbers. If you exclude attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq and against Israel, there were 849 attacks in 2010, up from 799 in 2009. In contrast, there were only 197 in all of 2005. Trends within the United States took a dramatic turn for the worse in 2010 with the rise of highly-visible anti-Muslim sentiment as well as an increase in cases of domestic radicalization. The highly sensationalized dispute over a Muslim cultural center in lower-Manhattan and the copy-cat protests against mosques in other cities across the country revealed a darkening mood among Americans. In July 2005, 41 percent of Americans held a favorable view of Islam. By the end of last summer, that number had declined to 30 percent. Increased suspicion of Muslim Americans seems to feed into a cycle of radicalization. Not surprisingly, cases of domestic radicalization increased over the last two years. A previously published study of cases of home-grown terrorists noted that "extremism capitalizes and thrives on perceptions of alienation and exclusion." This phenomenon highlights the dangers associated with the rise of anti-Muslim sentiment in the United States, and particularly its adoption by mainstream political figures. The more we exclude a community from full membership in American society, the more likely some misguided members of that community are to turn to violence. In recent years, counter-terror analysts have noted with concern the rise of regional al Qaeda affiliates. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), for example, has received considerable attention from American officials since Northwest Flight 253 was the target of an attempted bombing over Detroit. AQAP is particularly dangerous in terms of domestic radicalization.

American citizen Anwar al-Awlaki is based in Yemen and his sermons and online activities have been linked to the accused Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hassan, "underwear bomber" Umar Farouk Adbulmutallab, and Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad. In October 2010, authorities in Europe and the Middle East foiled a plot, originating in Yemen, to send bombs through the mail to targets in the United States. For nearly a decade, now, we have been told that the "War on Terror" will not end like World War II, with a peace signing or a capitulation. It would be foolish to think, too, that bin Laden's death will break the will of his followers. The evidence of self-radicalization in the United States, the growth of regional al Qaeda affiliates, and the rise of a new generation of extremist leaders portends a long struggle. As gratifying as bin Laden's death may be, it is likely not the end of this struggle, but the end of a chapter. Bin Laden's death, though, does open up the possibility of recalibrating the "War on Terror" into something more likely to increase American security without costing us so much blood and treasure. For too long the United States has sought to address the al Qaeda threat by seeking large scale transformations of distant countries by military means. But this approach has proven to be highly inefficient and, as the above data shows, of questionable effectiveness. Mr. Panetta was said to be a champion of targeted strikes against terrorist leaders during his time at the CIA, and the bin Laden raid demonstrates that small scale, targeted, intelligence-led, counter-terrorism operations work. While this approach does not seek to force the societal change abroad that has been orthodoxy in the Defense Department for the last 10 years, it does make us safer, and that's the point, after all. Dr. Bernard Finel is Senior Fellow at the American Security Project and Associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the National War College. The views expressed here are his own. Dr. Jim Ludes is Executive Director of the American Security Project which just released "Are We Winning?", its annual assessment of the fight against al Qaeda. Source: http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/166903-the-war-is-not-over