Professional Documents
Culture Documents
17 Septembre 2012
Oliver Wyman
28 avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris Phone: +33 1 45 02 33 95 Mobile: +33 6 07 37 84 27 remi.cornubert@oliverwyman.com
28, avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris Phone: +33 1 45 02 32 19 Mobile: +33 6 20 22 44 84 marc.boilard@oliverwyman.com
OLIVER WYMAN
Agenda
1 2 3 4
OLIVER WYMAN
A Glance in the Rearview Mirror The automotive industry has been on a strong growth path for more than 100 years...
Global light vehicle production development In mn. units, light vehicles, 1900-2011
100
Growth
Comments Despite several crises the automotive industry has been growing rapidly Declining segments have been overcompensated by emerging segments and markets Along with the migration to small vehicles has come a shift in regional focus, with Asia accounting for more than half of the global market in 2010 already In spite of the long term continuous growth, the market is quite volatile and can create significant stress on a short-to-mid term basis
80
Financial crisis
Stability
60
Decline
40
20
World war II
0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Light vehicle s incl. vehicles under 6t Source: OICA, Ward's: World Motor Vehicle Data, Oliver Wyman analysis
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Outcome of 2009 Crisis OEMs (1/3) The automotive industry has successfully overcome the crisis some OEMs have managed to even improve operations and profitability
Revenue development 2007-2011 Index, inflation-adjusted, 2007 = 100, selected OEMs1
200 180 160 140 Revenue 120 100 80 60 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 The consequences of the financial crisis were already clearly noticeable in 2008, especially in Japan and the US Since 2009 the OEMs revenues have been increasing and have nearly recovered pre-crisis level OEMs from South Korea and China are highly successful in developing markets and were therefore not hit by the crisis Overall, a small decrease in profitability can be observed in developed markets (Europe, Japan). Chinese and South Korean OEMs realize significantly higher margins In Europe, the mass market is declining while the premium segments progress Most of the global automotive OEMs have managed to overcome the crisis within a few years
Already before the crisis regionally differentiated revenue development 09/2008: Lehman bankruptcy
9.6% 9.0%
7.6%
+22% +20%
2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010
1.5%
2007 2010
2011
x%
Indicative trend
1. Representative OEM sample per region Source: Factiva, Thomson Financial, company reports, Oliver Wyman analysis
OLIVER WYMAN
Outcome of 2009 Crisis OEMs (2/3) The evolution of OEMs production over the last years clearly shows contrasted performance
Light vehicles production for a sample of groups Production in vehicles, Base 100 (2009-2011)
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80 2009
2010
2011
2012F
Source: J.D Power, Global Car & Truck Forecasting, Global Light Vehicle Production (Q2 2012) ; Oliver Wyman Analysis
OLIVER WYMAN
Outcome of 2009 Crisis OEMs (3/3) Overcapacity management remains a challenge, especially in Europe
Global vehicle production capacities Comments
Even if the over-capacity fell back to 26% in 2011, the trend is negative for 2012 with a declining market and no significant downsizing of production capacity so far In the US, over-capacity reached the highwater-mark of 55% in 2009 but utilization was already back to 71% in 2011 thanks to restructuring and went up to 86% in Q1 2012
Utilized capacity
2007
2009
2011
2007
2009
2011
Utilization rates in Europe and in US went very low during the crisis and restructuring seems to be the only way to recover profitability
Outcome of 2009 Crisis Impact in Europe The market has declined in all major European countries, especially in Italy and Spain
110
100
90
80
70
60
50 2009
2010
2011
2012F
Source: J.D Power, Global Car & Truck Forecasting, Global Light Vehicle Production (Q2 2012) ; Oliver Wyman Analysis
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Outcome of 2009 Crisis Impact on suppliers Some suppliers struggled significantly more than OEMs, but the supplier industry as a whole has almost recovered from the crisis
Revenue development 2007-2011 Index, inflation-adjusted, 2007 = 100, selected suppliers1
200 180 160 +28% 140 Revenue
2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 09/2008: Lehman bankruptcy
+24% 120 100 80 60 40 2007 x% 2008 2009 2010 2011 -8% +15% With the exception of Japanese suppliers, revenues in the traditional markets have mostly recovered from the crisis impact
Overall, the consequences of the crisis were not yet sensible in 2008 view
+11%
Especially in Japan, but also in the US and Europe, the profitability of suppliers decreased significantly Japanese suppliers also suffered from the diversification of supplier panel initiated by OEMs Particularly in China and South Korea, suppliers have realized a considerable increase in revenues and profitability
Overall, regional development behaves relatively analogue between suppliers and OEMs. The USA represent the only exception, as the suppliers cannot fully participate in the OEMs upturn 1. Oliver Wyman automotive supplier database. All data with regard to local currency and inflation-adjusted Change 2010 vs. 2009 Indicative trend
Source: Oliver Wyman supplier database, company reports, Oliver Wyman analysis
OLIVER WYMAN
Growth perspectives OEMs expect a production of 118M vehicles by 2019 (+5,8% p.a.), but market forecast is closer to 104M
Global light vehicles production by group Production in vehicles, in millions
120
105 100 119
Other
Millions
110
114
99
93 104
85
80 64 60 72 75 80
40
3.7% 19.8%
20
12.0% 11.7%
8.6%
(6.5%)
4.2%
19.0%
5.6%
3.2%
5.8%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Total
13.3%
Volkswagen Group Hyundai Group Honda Group BMW Group Sales Forecast
Source: J.D Power, Global Car & Truck Forecasting, Global Light Vehicle Production (Q2 2012) ; Polk Global Auto Forecast, Oliver Wyman Analysis
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Main trends The automotive industry will be deeply impacted by a few major trends until 2020
A Environment
Environmental regulation Growing consciousness of sustainability
B Society / C Demography
Shift of growth to emerging countries Emergence of megacities Aging, more active population Increasing demand for mobility
Customer Demand
D Technology
A more and more connected world Electrification of powertrains Lightweight challenge
Shift towards premium and low cost segments Increasing demand for safety Individualization of demand Increasingly using instead of owning
12
A B C D
Environmental regulation Objectives of CO2 emission reduction have been set at European and international level for new vehicles, impacting the car industry and the mobility habits of populations
120 g CO2/km
95 g CO2/km
2007
Shift to new drive technologies, including electric vehicles and new products, e.g. mobility services Continued search for lightweight materials to minimize fuel consumption Increasing share of R&D costs for OEMs
13
A B C D
Growing consciousness of sustainability With the shift of customer requirements, the innovation focus will change from comfort and variety to strong environmental and cost efficiency improvements
Change in innovation focus1 Share of vehicle innovations by customer value, in %, multiple nomination possible, n = 2,551
100%
Comments The innovation focus environmental friendliness and cost efficiency have increased significantly in the last years The focus of technical innovation was on vehicle concept and body in 2006 (31% 2006 vs. 14% 2010), the focus today is dominated by innovations in vehicle drive train
75%
54% 50% 50% 42% 31% 25% 24% 18% 18% 18% 19% 14% 16% 8% 0% 2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010 Comfort 2006 2010 Safety 2006 2010 Performance 2006 2010 Variety
The innovation focus of safety and performance has remained almost the same level in the past few years
Refocus of R&D on environmental performance and cost efficiency Safety remains a must
1. Approach: All innovations are evaluated based on customer value (innovation focus). Each innovation could address various customer value Source: Center of Automotive Management, Oliver Wyman analysis
Oliver Wyman
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A B C D
Shift of growth to emerging countries A strong shift towards emerging markets will make Asia the dominating automotive region
World light vehicle production In mn. units
Western Europe
+3.0%
North America
+1.9%
18,8
China
+5.5%
2012 2025
14.0
17.8
12,8 2012
2025
Rest of Asia
+.5.5%
18,7
2012
2025
37,5
3,6
7,2
2012 2025
14,0 2012
15,7 2025
Global growth 2012 2025 CAGR: + 4% Weight of BRICS1 vs total market: 2012: 42% 2025: 53%
Africa
South America
+3.3%
4,5 2012 6,9 0,7 2012 2025 0,9 2025
2012
2025
India
+11.2%
15,5 3,9 2012 2025
+2.0%
RoW
+5.1%
2,0 3,8 2025
X.X%
2012
Established markets
Global coverage required for OEMs to capture market growth Increasing competition in emerging countries, also with new local players
Source: LMCA Q1/2012, Oliver Wyman Research and analysis 1Included here: South America, China, India, Eastern Europe and Russia
15
A B C D
Emergence of Megacities In the future, a major share of the world population, especially in emerging markets, will be living in megacities
Example
Emergence of Megacities
Remarks
In the future, a major share of the world population, especially in emerging markets, will be living in megacities Megacities globally gain importance in absolute number and size, esp. in emerging markets
Tokyo
Mexico Lagos
Kalkutta Mumbai
Jakarta
The share of the world population living in urban areas is constantly growing (47% in 2000, 53% in 2015) Management of resources becomes key to prevent environmental collapse The dominance of megacities requires innovative solutions for responsible resource management
Buenos Aires
>50 to 60 >60 to 70 >70 to 80 >80 to 90 >90 to 100 Megacities Population in year 1950 1975 2001 2015 City population (mn) 30 25 20 15 10
Demand for vehicles suited for city traffic, vehicle becomes a mobile lifestyle hub Introduction of emission based access permissions and / or street tolls Usage of public transportation systems as alternative, especially for weaker incomes Development of electric bikes and scooters
16
A B C D
Aging, more active population The worldwide share of population >60 years old will significantly increase, leading to a large market segment with new, age-related requirements
Percentage of population > 60 years old of total population
34% 27% 24% 22% 21% 17% 14% 11% 9% 9% 5% 10% 24%
Remarks
According to the UN the aging of population is unprecedented, pervasive, and enduring Aging population in mature markets mainly benefits from social security coverage; however, decreasing ratio of working to retiring people increasingly is a financial burden Financial coverage of older population in emerging markets with higher uncertainty due to limited welfare Aging societies faced by lack of young, qualified workforce
25%
World
Europe
Northern America
Latin America
Asia
Oceania
Africa
2005
2050
The population gets older and when affordable will follow a more active lifestyle than in the past
In emerging markets growth of generation most likely to buy cars Special requirements of older people in mature markets In 2002, 25% of the new cars in Germany were sold to people > 60 years, whilst in 1992 these were only 14% Need for new car designs to facilitate access and use Mobility in the third age1 is an important factor for social integration and an active lifestyle
1 Third Age = Time after retirement Source: UN, Shell PKW Studie 2004, OECD, Oliver Wyman study
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A B C D
Increasing demand for mobility Job-related traveling as well as increasing traveling in the spare time lead to higher demand for mobility
Example
Remarks
CAGR 00-15
1130
800
600 400 200 0
926 43 77 75
1012 46 72 76
1036 55 74 76
73 98 86
Growth in passenger travel driven by increasing job required mobility as well as increasing activities in spare time Road vehicle traffic accounting for around 80% and growing stronger than public transportation Specification automotive industry High pressure on automotive mobility budgets, e.g. volatile oil prices, increasing taxes, tolls, etc. However, vehicle stays the major means of transportation despite growing pressure on household mobility spending
731
818
831
873
1,2%
2000
Road vehicle traffic
2004
2008
2015
Rail travel Air travel
Passenger mobility will continue to rise, while the vehicle stays the major means of transportation
The car market will continue to grow in all geographies Due to the pressure on automotive mobility budgets, low-cost and second-hand markets will grow
18
A B C D
Polarization of Income Distribution Polarization of income distribution shifts demand structures toward Entry and Premium
Loss of the middle in mature markets
Increasing polarization of income distribution Losses in the medium-volume segment Growth in premium, upper-middle class and fun segments Growth of the low-cost segment and demand for specific low-cost models
Income Income
8%
9%
Premium
1,3%
71%
67%
Middle
-0,6%
21%
Households Households
24%
Entry
1,5%
2006
2015
Collapse in the middle for vehicle segments, simultaneously increase of premium, higher middle class and low cost segments (e.g. Dacia Logan); in some emerging markets growth of middle class Polarized demand regarding automotive distribution channels, e.g. full service leasing vs. fast fit Positive or negative impact on OEMs margin, depending on market positioning
19
A B C D
Shift towards of premium and low cost segments Dacia has been extremely successful since 2004 ; Entry level is expected to represent up 40% of total Renault Group Sales by 2013
Renault Group: Entry level sales and % of total sales 2004-2014
Dokker Lodgy
Duster
40% 36%
40%
532
26% 23%
30%
21%
200 0
96
4% 2004
2009
2010
2011
2012e
2013e
2014e
% of Group Sales
Source: Socit Gnrale Cross Asset Reasearch Note: Figures encompass all entry level vehicles, whether branded as Dacia or Renault
Oliver Wyman
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A B C D
Increasing Demand for safety Consumers & governments rising demand for safety is strongly present and continues being a major driver for automotive innovation, now shifting from passive to active safety
Increasing demand for safety
Food Safety Nuclear Safety Medical Safety
Remarks
As basic consumer needs are satisfied, safety aspects are gaining importance Higher performance and complexity supplied and required (globally increasing hazards e.g. terrorism, diseases, etc.) Increase in consumer information, education Specification automotive industry
Decrease of road fatalities as major objective (increasingly successful) Focus on passive safety complemented by the increasing development of features for active safety Introduction of obligatory rating tests regarding safety features
Intensification of customers upfront research on product offerings growing importance of brand values and trusted third party sources
Safety remains a major innovation area , especially active security equipment Need of a comprehensive and affordable safety package from entry level
Source: planetsave, tagesschau, Superfos, aiche, www.medizin.de, VDA, OECD, Oliver Wyman study
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A B C D
Individualization of demand leading to an increasing complexity: the number of models offered by German premium OEMs has tripled in the last twenty years
Vehicle models # of models Example Number of models, 1990, 1999 and 2012
1990 1999 2012
23
X3
23 20
G Off-Road SL Roadster S-Class Coup S-Class Lim. E-Class Coup E-Class Kombi E-Class Lim. 190 Lim.
14 11 8 9
G Off-Road ML SUV V-Class MPV SL Roadster SLK Roadster CLK Cabrio CLK Coup CL Coup S-Class Lim. E-Class Kombi E-Class Lim. C-Class Kombi C-Class Lim. A-Class Lim.
Viano SLS Roadster SLS Coup SLK-Klasse SL-Klasse S-Klasse R-Klasse M-Klasse GLK-Klasse GL-Klasse G-Klasse Cabrio G-Klasse E-Klasse Coup E-Klasse Cabrio E-Klasse T-Modell E-Klasse Lim. CLS-Klasse CL-Klasse Coup C-Klasse Coup C-Klasse T-Modell C-Klasse Lim. B-Klasse Lim. A-Klasse Lim.
1990
1999
2012
14
23
Higher diversity and complexity for OEMs Increase of R&D modules to prevent development costs explosion
22
A B C D
Increasingly using instead of owning (1/2) The use of mobility services like car sharing is still limited today but should grow as owning a car is not anymore a symbol for younger generations
Overview car usage patterns 2011; in % of respondents; all sample countries
Use a company car for private use
3% 12%
100% 90% No car but hold a driver license 80% 70% 60% No car, use 1% car sharing scheme 50% 40% Highest share among students, lowest among workers 30% 20% 10% 0%
26% 26% 44%
1%
2% 4%
4%
3%
11%
6%
No car, use car sharing scheme No car but hold a driver license No car or drivers license
26%
73%
23%
6%
English Metro
French Metro
Need to take into account this new type of usage and new approach to mobility Opportunities to develop new offers as the market for a pay per use model will emerge
23
A B C D
Increasingly using instead of owning (2/2) New operators emerge: the success of Autolib launched in Paris end of 2011, relies on a dense urban network of stations and user-friendly service
Both network density and subscribers made good progress but challenges remain Number of subscribers (actual and forecast) Number of cars (one year evolution)
80 000
User testimony In spite of some difficulties in the starting days, customer satisfaction is good
I experienced some technical issues at the beginning, but the system is now running pretty well
The opportunity to book a car or parking place directly on the iPhone app is a real breakthrough
Canadian Communauto bought Mobizen from Veolia Transdev and will offer an alternative car sharing solution in Paris
Source: Autolib, Oliver Wyman 1 Annual subscription
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A B C D
Increasingly using instead of owning Impact on business models Different industries start taking positions on the market for comprehensive mobility Illustrative services
OEMS
Broker
Threat of new players entering the market, some of them leaders in their domain Opportunities for diversification and partnerships
25
A B C D
A more and more connected world (1/2) Driven by the rapid technology development, connectivity within different ecosystems is accelerated, forming a connected world in the near future
Connected products Connected systems Connected life
Past
Today
Future
Digital explosion by more than 210 mn. connected cars till 2016
Connected car app users fold 40 times from 3.2mn to 129 mn by 2016
26
A B C D
A more and more connected world (2/2) The global number of cars with embedded or hybrid connectivity devices will rise to 210 million in 2016 by then more than 80% of new vehicles sold are connected cars
Telematics market coverage Worldwide vehicle population, 2011-2016, in mn. units
CAGR 36% 210 18%
Comments Number of Connected Cars forecasted to grow strongly at ~36% p.a yielding 210 million in 2016 Shipments of OEM telematics systems grow from ~26 mn. in 2011 to 70 mn units in 2016 (CAGR 22%) Aftermarket shipments of telematics systems rise from 8 to ~16 million units in 2016 (CAGR 15%)
$15 bn. 45 5%
2011 2016 2011 2016
Overall market revenue will rise by only 22% p.a. to 40 billion USD in 2016 - due to increasing number of affordable non-embedded, hybrid solutions (e.g. Ford SYNC)
x%
Significant growth of telematics shipments and a global penetration of +80% in new vehicle sales
1 Telematics refers to embedded OEM and aftermarket systems (hardware plus included services) as well as hybrid systems based on smartphone connectivity Source: ABI Research, BCC Research, iSuppli, Oliver Wyman analysis
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A B C D
Electrification Powertrain electrification opens up a new and broad spectrum of alternative drive technologies, but with significant additional costs
A significant cost gap remains 30k +
Fuel Cell (Honda FCX Clarity) 100% savings > 30 000
Additional Cost
MHEV (Honda Insight) 10 - 20% savings + 1000-4000 ICE (Mercedes C-Class) 10 - 20% savings + 500-3000
Fuel Savings
100%
Huge R&D efforts to develop HEV / EV powertrains ; partnership opportunities HEV/EV powertrain cost reduction necessary until 2020 to increase target customer base and sales Impossibility to develop all the powertrain solutions ; risks to miss the future winning technology
28
Source: Oliver Wyman expert interviews, TU Vienna, company information, press clippings
A B C D
Electrification HEV Sales HEV market has taken off, not only in terms of sales but also in terms of model availability ; however, it remains very limited today
Hybrid vehicles sales worldwide In 000 vehicles, from 2004 to 2010
1000
900 800 700 600 500 500 400 300 200 100 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 180 290 370 500 940
Comments More than 4.5 million hybrid electric vehicles have been sold worldwide by the end of 2011 Market leader is Toyota with more than 3.5 million Toyota and Lexus hybrids (77% of the total cumulated sales) The United States is the leading hybrid market , followed by Japan and Europe Cumulative HEV sales up to January 2012: USA : 2,18 million units Japan: 1,5 million units Europe : 0,45 millions units 9 443 units have been sold in France in 2010
720
% HEV
(0,3%) (0,45%) (0,55%) (0,70%) (0,76%) (1,13%) (1,36%)
Sources : Hybrid and electric vehicle development, IFP, November 2011. Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs): Trend of sales by HEV models from 19992010, analyses Oliver Wyman
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Electrification EV Sales Over 58,000 electrics cars and trucks were sold in 2011 less than 0,08% of the market ; the Nissan Leaf, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and the Chevrolet Volt are clear leaders
2011 World electric cars and trucks sales
Others
Think City 1500 REVA 3% 2000 3% Tesla Roadster 2000 3% Launched in 2008 2 350 units sold2 by mid-2012
Smith EV 1200 2%
The Electric vehicles sold in 2011 represent less than 0,08% of Worldwide vehicles sales
1: By August 2012 - "Electric Leaf coming to PR in January". Caribbean Business. 2012-08-28 2: By June 2012 - "Tesla Hits Accelerator Despite Q2 Revenue Miss". Forbes. 2012-07-25 3: By June 2012 - Bernama Media. 2012-06-26 Source: USA Department of Energy, OW analysis
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A B C D
Lightweight challenge Weight reduction is a key topic for OEMs in order to achieve the 2020 CO2 target
Illustration: car weight evolution from 1970 and target until 2020 Segment M1 (average car) 1 350 Kg
Emission treatment systems Performance systems for better acceleration, handling & braking Occupant safety like airbags, pretensioner Infotainment & other electrical systems Comfort systems Air conditionning, Seats
850 Kg
Car weight
Improved Noise, Vibration, Harness & handling Increase in vehicle dimension Longer, Wider, Taller cars
Target
750 Kg
Delta weight target: 500kg (37%) Reference C segment car (Golf and equivalent)
Lightweight design is a priority for all OEMs, and is a revolution for OEMs R&D All the vehicule modules are investigated to track potential weight reduction (interiors, body, ) High strength steel, aluminium, and composite materials will gain importance
31
A B C D
Lightweight challenge Example Peugeot reduced the weight of the 208 by more than 15% compared to the 207
Example of weight savings Car structure: -25kg Hollow pieces Use of High Tensile Steel Running Gear: -50kg Size reduction of all pieces (e.g. damper) thanks to overall lower weight Interior: -25kg Lighter foam and structure for seats: -8kg Soundproofing: -14kg
1 418kg
1 180kg
207
208
Spare wheel replaced with reparation kit: -10kg Engine: up to -25kg New 3-cylinders engine
238 kg saved
Oliver Wyman
Source: Usine Nouvelle, Automobile magazine Note: Weight savings depend on the model and motorization. Comparison based on: Peugeot 207 1.6 HDi 112 Allure and Peugeot 208 HDi 115 Allure
32
A B C D
Lightweight challenge Composites Composites can save up to 70% weight when substituted to steel components, but at a higher price
Comparison of material lightweight potential Reference for price and weight is regular steel
12x
Cost relative to Steel
Comments Orders of magnitude Glass fiber composites (GFRP) are the cheapest composite and can save around 30% weight ; their relative performance vs cost position is in the same order of magnitude as aluminium and high strength steel Carbon fiber composites (CFRP) are most weight effective, but much more expensive, from 3-4 times the price of steel (commercial grade), to 10 times the price of steel for aerospace applications
10x
CFRP
8x
6x
4x
CFRP (Commercial)
2x
Stainless 10% 1.0 Steel Regular 0xSteel 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Composites: Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRP), Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP)
Source: SAE, US Department of Energy
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A B C D
Lightweight challenge Composites for structural parts Composite structural parts will not become mainstream before 2020, while semistructural parts1 could be widespread around 2015
Semi-structural Structural parts
Characteristics
Parts or modules made by Tier 1 suppliers, assembled in the vehicle at the end of the assembly process Bumper beams, Seat frames, hard tops, hatch Mainly Glass fiber today Mainly thermosets (Polyester & Epoxy) but some thermoplastic usage Already used in some vehicles (mainly mainstream) but still limited Ex: Land Rover Evoque (hatch)
Parts from the body in white, made by OEMS, that go through paint shop and contribute to crash proof properties Pillars, Floor panel, Cross car beam Main Carbon fiber today All thermoset Mainly epoxy today Limited to sport cars / supercars or electric vehicles Ex: Formula1 racecars, Tesla Roadster, Bugatti Veyron, McLaren MP4-12C, BMW i3 (EV)
Rationale of composites Glass fiber composites can reduce vehicle weight usage with a relatively moderate cycle time, at reasonable cost However, GFRP parts have been tested since many years (e.g. hatch Citron DS, BX) without really managing to convince OEMs
Earliest time horizon for series vehicles
OLIVER WYMAN
In the supercar segment, CFRPs long cycle time and high cost are compatible with a high selling price and small volumes
2015
2020
34
1. Short Fiber composites are also very common in interiors parts for instance Source: JEC Composites, Expert Interviews, Oliver Wyman analysis
Evolving competitive landscape Although established OEMs have consolidated in the past, new entrants in emerging markets have led to an increasing number of players
Global OEM brands Absolute numbers, in defined regions
# of new/ abandoned brands South Korea Other BRIC1 129 5 7
Comments
155 4 8
14
-1 +3 +2 +1 +38 -4 -2
13
Example of new brands
Japan
US China
12 16 26
Despite the strong financial and competitive pressure, OEM brands in the established markets have been consolidated only slightly over the last ten years On the other hand, the number of OEM brands in emerging markets have increased significantly Especially in China, where OEM brands have almost doubled, reflecting the growth momentum and indicating potential for consolidation in the near future
60
-4
Rest of World
31
+11 -16
26
Europe
32
+1
-3
30
2001
1 Brazil, India, Russia Note: Brands w/o reported production volume count as not existing Source: LMCA
OLIVER WYMAN
2011
36
Diversification of services and value shift The IT industry is an example of tremendous shift of Value
$125BB
$469BB
$2,542BB
80%
60%
Microsoft
Software $547BB
40%
20%
37
Diversification of services and value shift We anticipate a similar shift in the automotive industry toward alternative sources of revenue
Value migration car mobility 1950 - 2025
Vehicle purchase
Opportunities
1950 2025
Threats
1
2 3
Address industrial overcapacity issues Focus the product offering on growing segments Invest in R&D to develop tomorrows key technologies: powertrain electrification, connectivity, lightweight Investigate the mobility services area
4 5
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Booth & Conferences at the Paris auto show Attend our conferences & Visit our booth (Hall 3 C332) to meet more of our experts and learn about our recent studies
CONFRENCES OLIVER WYMAN AU MONDIAL
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SAMPLE OF RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE CONTENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE VALUE CHAIN
CUSTOMER
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PRODUCTION
SALES
SERVICES
: AFTER SALES
Questions ?
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Appendix
Automotive