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TIe Age oI BIg DuLu
By STEVE LOHR
Published: February 11, 2012
GOOD wILI numbers? uscInuLed by duLu? TIe sound you Ieur Is opporLunILy
knockIng.
Mo ZIou wus snupped up by .B.M. IusL
summer, us u IresIIy mInLed YuIe M.B.A., Lo
joIn LIe LecInoIogy compuny`s IusL-growIng
runks oI duLu consuILunLs. TIey IeIp
busInesses muke sense oI un expIosIon oI duLu
- Web LruIIIc und socIuI neLwork commenLs,
us weII us soILwure und sensors LIuL monILor
sIIpmenLs, suppIIers und cusLomers - Lo guIde
decIsIons, LrIm cosLs und IIIL suIes. `ve uIwuys
Iud u Iove oI numbers, suys Ms. ZIou, wIose
job us u duLu unuIysL suILs Ier skIIIs.
To expIoIL LIe duLu IIood, AmerIcu wIII need
muny more IIke Ier. A reporL IusL yeur by LIe
McKInsey GIobuI nsLILuLe, LIe reseurcI urm oI LIe consuILIng IIrm,
projecLed LIuL LIe UnILed SLuLes needs 1qo,ooo Lo 1qo,ooo more
workers wILI deep unuIyLIcuI experLIse und 1. mIIIIon more duLu-
IILeruLe munugers, wIeLIer reLruIned or IIred.
TIe ImpucL oI duLu ubundunce exLends weII beyond busIness. JusLIn
GrImmer, Ior exumpIe, Is one oI LIe new breed oI poIILIcuI scIenLIsLs. A
z8-yeur-oId ussIsLunL proIessor uL SLunIord, Ie combIned muLI wILI
poIILIcuI scIence In IIs undergruduuLe und gruduuLe sLudIes, seeIng un
opporLunILy becuuse LIe dIscIpIIne Is becomIng IncreusIngIy duLu-
InLensIve. HIs reseurcI InvoIves LIe compuLer-uuLomuLed unuIysIs oI
bIog posLIngs, CongressIonuI speecIes und press reIeuses, und news
urLIcIes, IookIng Ior InsIgILs InLo Iow poIILIcuI Ideus spreud.
TIe sLory Is sImIIur In IIeIds us vurIed us scIence und sporLs, udverLIsIng
und pubIIc IeuILI - u drIIL Lowurd duLu-drIven dIscovery und decIsIon-mukIng. L`s u revoIuLIon, suys Gury
KIng, dIrecLor oI Hurvurd`s nsLILuLe Ior QuunLILuLIve SocIuI ScIence. We`re reuIIy jusL geLLIng under wuy. BuL
LIe murcI oI quunLIIIcuLIon, mude possIbIe by enormous new sources oI duLu, wIII sweep LIrougI ucudemIu,
busIness und governmenL. TIere Is no ureu LIuL Is goIng Lo be unLoucIed.
WeIcome Lo LIe Age oI BIg DuLu. TIe new megurIcI oI SIIIcon VuIIey, IIrsL uL GoogIe und now ucebook, ure
musLers uL IurnessIng LIe duLu oI LIe Web - onIIne seurcIes, posLs und messuges - wILI nLerneL udverLIsIng.
AL LIe WorId EconomIc orum IusL monLI In Duvos, SwILzerIund, BIg DuLu wus u murquee LopIc. A reporL by
LIe Iorum, BIg DuLu, BIg mpucL, decIured duLu u new cIuss oI economIc usseL, IIke currency or goId.
RIck SmoIun, creuLor oI LIe Duy In LIe IIe pIoLogrupIy serIes, Is pIunnIng u projecL IuLer LIIs yeur, TIe
Humun uce oI BIg DuLu, documenLIng LIe coIIecLIon und uses oI duLu. Mr. SmoIun Is un enLIusIusL, suyIng
LIuL BIg DuLu Ius LIe poLenLIuI Lo be IumunILy`s dusIbourd, un InLeIIIgenL LooI LIuL cun IeIp combuL poverLy,
crIme und poIIuLIon. PrIvucy udvocuLes Luke u dIm vIew, wurnIng LIuL BIg DuLu Is BIg BroLIer, In corporuLe
cIoLIIng.
WIuL Is BIg DuLu? A meme und u murkeLIng Lerm, Ior sure, buL uIso sIorLIund Ior udvuncIng Lrends In
LecInoIogy LIuL open LIe door Lo u new upproucI Lo undersLundIng LIe worId und mukIng decIsIons. TIere Is u
IoL more duLu, uII LIe LIme, growIng uL o percenL u yeur, or more LIun doubIIng every Lwo yeurs, esLImuLes
DC, u LecInoIogy reseurcI IIrm. L`s noL jusL more sLreums oI duLu, buL enLIreIy new ones. or exumpIe, LIere
ure now counLIess dIgILuI sensors worIdwIde In IndusLrIuI equIpmenL, uuLomobIIes, eIecLrIcuI meLers und
sIIppIng cruLes. TIey cun meusure und communIcuLe IocuLIon, movemenL, vIbruLIon, LemperuLure, IumIdILy,
even cIemIcuI cIunges In LIe uIr.
Ink LIese communIcuLIng sensors Lo compuLIng InLeIIIgence und you see LIe rIse oI wIuL Is cuIIed LIe
nLerneL oI TIIngs or LIe ndusLrIuI nLerneL. mproved uccess Lo InIormuLIon Is uIso IueIIng LIe BIg DuLu
Lrend. or exumpIe, governmenL duLu - empIoymenL IIgures und oLIer InIormuLIon - Ius been sLeudIIy
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Pagina 1 de 4 Big Data`s Impact in the World - NYTimes.com
11/02/2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/sunday-review/big-datas-impact-in-the-world.html?adxnnl1&hpw...
mIgruLIng onLo LIe Web. n zooq, WusIIngLon opened LIe duLu doors IurLIer by sLurLIng DuLu.gov, u Web sILe
LIuL mukes uII kInds oI governmenL duLu uccessIbIe Lo LIe pubIIc.
DuLu Is noL onIy becomIng more uvuIIubIe buL uIso more undersLundubIe Lo compuLers. MosL oI LIe BIg DuLu
surge Is duLu In LIe wIId - unruIy sLuII IIke words, Imuges und vIdeo on LIe Web und LIose sLreums oI sensor
duLu. L Is cuIIed unsLrucLured duLu und Is noL LypIcuIIy grIsL Ior LrudILIonuI duLubuses.
BuL LIe compuLer LooIs Ior gIeunIng knowIedge und InsIgILs Irom LIe nLerneL eru`s vusL Lrove oI unsLrucLured
duLu ure IusL guInIng ground. AL LIe IoreIronL ure LIe rupIdIy udvuncIng LecInIques oI urLIIIcIuI InLeIIIgence
IIke nuLuruI-Iunguuge processIng, puLLern recognILIon und mucIIne IeurnIng.
TIose urLIIIcIuI-InLeIIIgence LecInoIogIes cun be uppIIed In muny IIeIds. or exumpIe, GoogIe`s seurcI und ud
busIness und ILs experImenLuI roboL curs, wIIcI Iuve nuvIguLed LIousunds oI mIIes oI CuIIIornIu rouds, boLI
use u bundIe oI urLIIIcIuI-InLeIIIgence LrIcks. BoLI ure duunLIng BIg DuLu cIuIIenges, pursIng vusL quunLILIes oI
duLu und mukIng decIsIons InsLunLuneousIy.
TIe weuILI oI new duLu, In Lurn, ucceIeruLes udvunces In compuLIng - u vIrLuous cIrcIe oI BIg DuLu. MucIIne-
IeurnIng uIgorILIms, Ior exumpIe, Ieurn on duLu, und LIe more duLu, LIe more LIe mucIInes Ieurn. Tuke SIrI,
LIe LuIkIng, quesLIon-unswerIng uppIIcuLIon In IPIones, wIIcI AppIe InLroduced IusL IuII. Ls orIgIns go buck Lo
u PenLugon reseurcI projecL LIuL wus LIen spun oII us u SIIIcon VuIIey sLurL-up. AppIe bougIL SIrI In zo1o, und
kepL IeedIng IL more duLu. Now, wILI peopIe suppIyIng mIIIIons oI quesLIons, SIrI Is becomIng un IncreusIngIy
udepL personuI ussIsLunL, oIIerIng remInders, weuLIer reporLs, resLuurunL suggesLIons und unswers Lo un
expundIng unIverse oI quesLIons.
To grusp LIe poLenLIuI ImpucL oI BIg DuLu, Iook Lo LIe mIcroscope, suys ErIk BrynjoIIsson, un economIsL uL
MussucIuseLLs nsLILuLe oI TecInoIogy`s SIoun ScIooI oI MunugemenL. TIe mIcroscope, InvenLed Iour
cenLurIes ugo, uIIowed peopIe Lo see und meusure LIIngs us never beIore - uL LIe ceIIuIur IeveI. L wus u
revoIuLIon In meusuremenL.
DuLu meusuremenL, ProIessor BrynjoIIsson expIuIns, Is LIe modern equIvuIenL oI LIe mIcroscope. GoogIe
seurcIes, ucebook posLs und TwILLer messuges, Ior exumpIe, muke IL possIbIe Lo meusure beIuvIor und
senLImenL In IIne deLuII und us IL Iuppens.
n busIness, economIcs und oLIer IIeIds, ProIessor BrynjoIIsson suys, decIsIons wIII IncreusIngIy be bused on
duLu und unuIysIs ruLIer LIun on experIence und InLuILIon. We cun sLurL beIng u IoL more scIenLIIIc, Ie
observes.
TIere Is pIenLy oI unecdoLuI evIdence oI LIe puyoII Irom duLu-IIrsL LIInkIng. TIe besL-known Is sLIII
MoneybuII, LIe zoo book by MIcIueI ewIs, cIronIcIIng Iow LIe Iow-budgeL OukIund A`s mussuged duLu
und urcune busebuII sLuLIsLIcs Lo spoL undervuIued pIuyers. Heuvy duLu unuIysIs Iud become sLundurd noL onIy
In busebuII buL uIso In oLIer sporLs, IncIudIng EngIIsI soccer, weII beIore IusL yeur`s movIe versIon oI
MoneybuII, sLurrIng Brud PILL.
ReLuIIers, IIke WuImurL und KoII`s, unuIyze suIes, prIcIng und economIc, demogrupIIc und weuLIer duLu Lo
LuIIor producL seIecLIons uL purLIcuIur sLores und deLermIne LIe LImIng oI prIce murkdowns. SIIppIng
compunIes, IIke U.P.S., mIne duLu on Lruck deIIvery LImes und LruIIIc puLLerns Lo IIne-Lune rouLIng.
OnIIne duLIng servIces, IIke MuLcI.com, consLunLIy sIIL LIrougI LIeIr Web IIsLIngs oI personuI cIurucLerIsLIcs,
reucLIons und communIcuLIons Lo Improve LIe uIgorILIms Ior muLcIIng men und women on duLes. PoIIce
depurLmenLs ucross LIe counLry, Ied by New York`s, use compuLerIzed muppIng und unuIysIs oI vurIubIes IIke
IIsLorIcuI urresL puLLerns, puyduys, sporLIng evenLs, ruInIuII und IoIIduys Lo Lry Lo predIcL IIkeIy crIme IoL
spoLs und depIoy oIIIcers LIere In udvunce.
ReseurcI by ProIessor BrynjoIIsson und Lwo oLIer coIIeugues, pubIIsIed IusL yeur, suggesLs LIuL duLu-guIded
munugemenL Is spreudIng ucross corporuLe AmerIcu und sLurLIng Lo puy oII. TIey sLudIed 1;q Iurge compunIes
und Iound LIuL LIose udopLIng duLu-drIven decIsIon mukIng ucIIeved producLIvILy guIns LIuL were percenL
Lo 6 percenL IIgIer LIun oLIer IucLors couId expIuIn.
TIe predIcLIve power oI BIg DuLu Is beIng expIored - und sIows promIse - In IIeIds IIke pubIIc IeuILI,
economIc deveIopmenL und economIc IorecusLIng. ReseurcIers Iuve Iound u spIke In GoogIe seurcI requesLs
Ior Lerms IIke IIu sympLoms und IIu LreuLmenLs u coupIe oI weeks beIore LIere Is un Increuse In IIu puLIenLs
comIng Lo IospILuI emergency rooms In u regIon (und emergency room reporLs usuuIIy Iug beIInd vIsILs by
Lwo weeks or so).
GIobuI PuIse, u new InILIuLIve by LIe UnILed NuLIons, wunLs Lo Ieveruge BIg DuLu Ior gIobuI deveIopmenL. TIe
group wIII conducL so-cuIIed senLImenL unuIysIs oI messuges In socIuI neLworks und LexL messuges - usIng
nuLuruI-Iunguuge decIpIerIng soILwure - Lo IeIp predIcL job Iosses, spendIng reducLIons or dIseuse ouLbreuks
In u gIven regIon. TIe gouI Is Lo use dIgILuI eurIy-wurnIng sIgnuIs Lo guIde ussIsLunce progrums In udvunce Lo,
Ior exumpIe, prevenL u regIon Irom sIIppIng buck InLo poverLy.
n economIc IorecusLIng, reseurcI Ius sIown LIuL Lrends In IncreusIng or decreusIng voIumes oI IousIng-
reIuLed seurcI querIes In GoogIe ure u more uccuruLe predIcLor oI Iouse suIes In LIe nexL quurLer LIun LIe
IorecusLs oI reuI esLuLe economIsLs. TIe ederuI Reserve, umong oLIers, Ius Luken noLIce. n JuIy, LIe NuLIonuI
Bureuu oI EconomIc ReseurcI Is IoIdIng u worksIop on OpporLunILIes In BIg DuLu und ILs ImpIIcuLIons Ior
LIe economIcs proIessIon.
BIg DuLu Is uIreudy LrunsIormIng LIe sLudy oI Iow socIuI neLworks IuncLIon. n LIe 1q6os, SLunIey MIIgrum oI
Hurvurd used puckuges us IIs reseurcI medIum In u Iumous experImenL In socIuI connecLIons. He senL
puckuges Lo voIunLeers In LIe MIdwesL, InsLrucLIng LIem Lo geL LIe puckuges Lo sLrungers In BosLon, buL noL
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Pagina 2 de 4 Big Data`s Impact in the World - NYTimes.com
11/02/2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/sunday-review/big-datas-impact-in-the-world.html?adxnnl1&hpw...
dIrecLIy; purLIcIpunLs couId muII u puckuge onIy Lo someone LIey knew. TIe uveruge number oI LImes u
puckuge cIunged Iunds wus remurkubIy Iew, ubouL sIx. L wus u cIussIc demonsLruLIon oI LIe smuII-worId
pIenomenon, cupLured In LIe popuIur pIruse sIx degrees oI sepuruLIon.
Toduy, socIuI-neLwork reseurcI InvoIves mInIng Iuge dIgILuI duLu seLs oI coIIecLIve beIuvIor onIIne. Among
LIe IIndIngs: peopIe wIom you know buL don`L communIcuLe wILI oILen - weuk LIes, In socIoIogy - ure LIe
besL sources oI LIps ubouL job openIngs. TIey LruveI In sIIgILIy dIIIerenL socIuI worIds LIun cIose IrIends, so
LIey see opporLunILIes you und your besL IrIends do noL.
ReseurcIers cun see puLLerns oI InIIuence und peuks In communIcuLIon on u subjecL - by IoIIowIng LrendIng
IusILugs on TwILLer, Ior exumpIe. TIe onIIne IIsIbowI Is u wIndow InLo LIe reuI-LIme beIuvIor oI Iuge
numbers oI peopIe. Iook Ior IoL spoLs In LIe duLu, un ouLbreuk oI ucLIvILy LIuL need Lo undersLund, suys
Jon KIeInberg, u proIessor uL CorneII. L`s someLIIng you cun onIy do wILI BIg DuLu.
BIg DuLu Ius ILs perIIs, Lo be sure. WILI Iuge duLu seLs und IIne-gruIned meusuremenL, sLuLIsLIcIuns und
compuLer scIenLIsLs noLe, LIere Is Increused rIsk oI IuIse dIscoverIes. TIe LroubIe wILI seekIng u meunIngIuI
needIe In mussIve IuysLucks oI duLu, suys Trevor HusLIe, u sLuLIsLIcs proIessor uL SLunIord, Is LIuL muny bILs oI
sLruw Iook IIke needIes.
BIg DuLu uIso suppIIes more ruw muLerIuI Ior sLuLIsLIcuI sIenunIguns und bIused IucL-IIndIng excursIons. L
oIIers u IIgI-LecI LwIsL on un oId LrIck: know LIe IucLs, now IeL`s IInd `em. TIuL Is, suys Rebeccu GoIdIn, u
muLIemuLIcIun uL George Muson UnIversILy, one oI LIe mosL pernIcIous uses oI duLu.
DuLu Is Lumed und undersLood usIng compuLer und muLIemuLIcuI modeIs. TIese modeIs, IIke meLupIors In
IILeruLure, ure expIunuLory sImpIIIIcuLIons. TIey ure useIuI Ior undersLundIng, buL LIey Iuve LIeIr IImILs. A
modeI mIgIL spoL u correIuLIon und druw u sLuLIsLIcuI InIerence LIuL Is unIuIr or dIscrImInuLory, bused on
onIIne seurcIes, uIIecLIng LIe producLs, bunk Iouns und IeuILI Insurunce u person Is oIIered, prIvucy
udvocuLes wurn.
DespILe LIe cuveuLs, LIere seems Lo be no LurnIng buck. DuLu Is In LIe drIver`s seuL. L`s LIere, IL`s useIuI und
IL`s vuIuubIe, even IIp.
VeLerun duLu unuIysLs LeII oI IrIends wIo were Iong bored by dIscussIons oI LIeIr work buL now ure suddenIy
curIous. MoneybuII IeIped, LIey suy, buL LIIngs Iuve gone wuy beyond LIuL. TIe cuILure Ius cIunged, suys
Andrew GeImun, u sLuLIsLIcIun und poIILIcuI scIenLIsL uL CoIumbIu UnIversILy. TIere Is LIIs Ideu LIuL numbers
und sLuLIsLIcs ure InLeresLIng und Iun. L`s cooI now.
6WHYH/RKULVDWHFKQRORJ\UHSRUWHUIRU7KH1HZ<RUN7LPHV
A version of this news analysis appeared in print on February 12, 2012, on page SR1
of the National edition with the headline: The Age of Big Data.
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Pagina 3 de 4 Big Data`s Impact in the World - NYTimes.com
11/02/2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/sunday-review/big-datas-impact-in-the-world.html?adxnnl1&hpw...
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Pagina 4 de 4 Big Data`s Impact in the World - NYTimes.com
11/02/2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/sunday-review/big-datas-impact-in-the-world.html?adxnnl1&hpw...