The Art of Winning Wars

In our live, we probably can have not only smooth conditions but also bad conditions. We can achieve things we want but some times we fail to get the things we want to get. If we want to achieve a thing we can achieve it easily but some times we must take our efforts that involve not only psychological conflicts but also physical conflicts. To solve physical conflicts sometimes we need to hire troops to get involved in wars. There are plenty things we need to consider to win wars. In my opinion, to win wars we need to manage some things such as: the quantity of our resources, the number of troops we have, the quality of troops we have, the quantity of our weapon, the quality of our weapon, the quantity of our commander, the quality of our commander, the quality of information we can obtain, and quantity of information we can obtain. First thing we need to manage is the quantity of our resources. This is the most necessary thing we need to be able to manage. With unlimited number of resources, we can hire people with the best ability and buy or create the most sophisticated weapons unlimitedly but the problem we usually have is that our resources are limited. That is why we will deplete our resources at the time we need to participate in wars. In this situation, we need to understand that there are scarcities so we need to use our resources wisely. Managing unwisely our resources not only prevent us from winning the wars but also leads us to bankruptcy. We need to understand that managing our resources wisely can keep our ability to participate in wars. Besides managing our resources wisely, we need to be able to manage the number of troops to win wars. We have to remember troops need some medicines, some foods, and some salaries. These three things are not easily removed from our list. Being able to manage the quantity of troops can make us to win wars. We cannot think that we are iron men like the black knight RX and we cannot think that we are are supermen who need no troop and able to fight many men or women alone because they have the sun sword, the body that is not penetrable by bullets, or other non-sense abilities. In fact we dont have any abilities to become alive again after dead, we dont have the ability of being not penetrable by bullets, and we dont have the ability of being not penetrable by swords, lances, arrows, and any other weapons. This probably 1

make us to become not easy to fight alone because fighting alone means we need high abilities to avoid weapons. Who can perfectly do that? Failure to understand the importance of troops probably can yield rebels that can derail our victory in wars. In present time, we can see that Kutai empire was trying to be able to exist again. This probably is not a good thing to have because President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wanted to eliminate Yogyakarta empire. This is because he thought that it was impossible for a country to have a country inside it in our republic style. Yogyakarta must be lead by a governor and the governor must be elected in a fair provinces general election or a pilkada. Yogyakarta now is not having any pilkadas. With no troops, how will we stop the effort like Kutais effort? With no troops, how will we enforce Yogyakarta to have a fair general election because some of Yogyakartas supporters oppose the effort to create a fair provinces general election or a pilkada? Will Kutai empire stop its effort after we send some letters to ask them to stop their efforts? What if they reject to stop their effort if the main government has not sufficient troops to handle this situation? Will the situation similar with East Timor happen again in the future? Indonesia is lucky that it has no war although in more extreme situation, Kutai probably refuse to give some of their resources to Republic of Indonesia if Republic of Indonesia has no power to control them. If Indonesia had wars, Indonesia would get two sides to defeat, Kutai Empire and the enemy. If we believe the word of a man that this word is said by poor people only then what will the government do to handle Kutai case? Will they let Kutai to be an empire and being seperated from the Republic of Indonesia because with no troops no thing can be done by the government? Another good example is the shot incident in Papua. This can happen probably because they thought Jakarta is getting weaker. At least the rise of Kutai probably boost their moral to shot. Unfortunately, they were shotting innocent people otherwise this can be said as the other provinces are getting more courage to create problems. With weaker government, will they become unmanageable? Failure to understand the importance of troops in a nation can make the people to reject taxes and this can make the government lost some sources of resources to pay troops to win wars. Bakrie for example, if the government has not sufficient power, they wont have the ability to enforce taxes. What will they do to enforce taxes? Will they act like Zeus with to say, Hey you get out of my cloud and expect them to do the words the government say? What if 2

he say, No? Will the government kneel down in front of Bakrie and will Bakrie pay taxes after the governments staffs kneel down in front of him? What if they fail to make Bakrie to pay taxes although they have kneeled down in front of him since 100 years ago? Will the government has nothing to do if Bakrie reject to pay taxes? We can have a very difficult situation if we reject to sell cheap in order to be able to hire and manage our troops to win wars. This is because the more expensive price we want other people to pay at the time they are purchasing our commodity, the more people can reject to purchase our commodity. Without sufficient resources, how can we pay our troops wage? Will this not affect our troops fidelity? Will our troops not leave us at the time we cannot pay their salary? Will they not fight against us if we become unable to pay their salary because they thought it was their right to get salary? If they rebel and fight against us because they are demanding their wage and we are in the middle of wars then we will have two enemy to fight with: our own troops and the enemy we are trying to eliminate. The Sriwijaya empire can be a good example at the time we are asking some examples about the condition if we reject to sell cheap. They were asking the people to pay expensively at the time the people used their harbours. They tried to block the people so they could not pass Sriwijayas territory. Some how they failed and perished as we can see until I write this paper, they cannot regain their territory or at least do things like the things Kutai was doing. The third things we need to manage is the quality of our troops in order to win wars. Can you imagine if our enemy can kill our troops with only a bullet but we need to kill them with three bullets because we are unable to shot accurately? This can make us to waste our chance to kill our enemy meanwhile they dont waste their chance and able to do that. This can make one enemy to kill at least three of our troops because we need three bullets before we can make an accurate shot to kill our enemy although in reality it is not easy to arrange the accurate time to kill the enemy.

Figure 1. Disaster can occur at the time we fail to realize the bad effect of defeat and the bad effect of wars (Wikipedia, 2011).

Figure 2 Weapons and Troops are important to win wars (Wikipedia, 2011). The quality of our troops include our troops martial art skills. Troops with better martial art skills can survive more compared with troops with not enough martial art skills. This is because the troops with sufficient martial art skills can avoid the enemy to kill them and at the same time they can kill their enemy. Troops with better martial art skills can touch their enemy and at the same time avoid their enemy from touching them. How can we kill without even being able to touch? Ideally, the quality of our troops include their intelligent to anticipate enemys strategies and traps. Without ability to do that, they can fall in their enemys traps and they can be killed by their enemy. Without enough ability, they can step in to a bomb and get themselves killed if 4

the bomb explodes. Without ability to do that, their enemy can easily lie to them to go to some places and leave their position although they must stay to defend their position because the problem is that they can easily trust their enemy. Without sufficient intelligence, they cannot make a good decision to do or not to do some things. The next thing we need to manage is the quantity of our weapons in order to win wars. How can we effectively kill our enemy without weapons? With not sufficient quantity of weapons, it is possible that some of our troops use weapons and some others use bare hands to fight the enemy. If the enemy use a good shield, can we easily kill our enemy with bare hands? If our enemy use a good shield, can we easily brake the shield to kill our enemy? It is not easy to take a decision to choose between weapons and individual qualities. This is because with individual qualities, you can still fight although you have no weapon. With individual quality, you can make traps or some things alike. Although your enemy probably can find out your traps, they need better subordinate to help them to find it if they have no sufficient individual quality themselves. Your enemy can start to sell slowly if they have no sufficient individual quality and they only have limited resources especially if they are selling it more expensive compare with the market price and this can make them to get defeated by you. To rely at your subordinate mean you need to pay them adequately because if your subordinate leave you, you will have no ability to fight your enemy. With weapons we need no individual quality because the things we need is that we can shoot well. What ever your enemies do, they will have to avoid those bullets. If they are stubborn and try to penetrate in to your place without adequate protection, they probably will die. To rely on weapons means we must not let our enemy to be able to take over our weapons, we must not let our enemy to stop to make us to be able to keep trying to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons, and we must not allow our enemy to able to make us unable to control our weapons. Being able to make us to be unable to control our weapon, being able to stop to make us able to keep trying to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons or being able to take over our weapons can make them to be able to defeat us.

The fifth things we need to manage is the quality of our weapons in order to win wars. With good weapons, we can kill our enemy with one strike. Without a good weapon, we probably need to kill our enemy with many strikes. If the enemy can kill us in one strike and we can only kill enemy with many strikes, can we survive more especially if our martial art skills is not sufficient? The Japanese empire surrendered to the allied forces in world war II after two boms strike Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese emperor had nothing to say but to surrender. This showed the importance of weapons in wars. The sixth things to manage is the quantity of our commander-in-chiefs in order to win wars. This is important because humans can handle limited situations. With simultanous situations occur, he or she need to choose things to do and the more things he or she need to handle, the faster action he need to do. People can only react in as fast as one second maximumly. This is excluding the time to think. If a person need to handle things that exceed his or her ability, can he or she effectively handle a thing? The seventh thing to manage is our commander-in-chiefs quality if we want to win wars. With good commanders, we can hope the commander to be able to manage team well to win wars. With good commander, the commander can instruct the troops to avoid enemys traps. With good commander, we can hope he or she can choose effective method to attack or to defend. With good commander we can minimize the need of intelligent troops because the commander can command the troops to avoid traps and know the enemys strategies to avoid to make wrong moves. The eight thing we need to manage is the quality of information we can obtain to win wars. This is because knowledge are not coming from the God. We need to obtain good information from a forecasting technique, from a mind reading technique and from at least a good scout of us. We must be able to make sure that we are gathering good information because inaccurate information can lead to inaccurate actions from us. We cannot respond well to any conditions with wrong information. In order to obtain good information, we need good scouts. The more skill our scouts have the better information they can obtain. The worse skill our scouts have the worse 6

information they can obtain. The worst condition are they probably can make themselves killed or captured by our enemy if the have not sufficient skills. To process information to win wars, we have some techniques such as Fuzzy inference system, analytic hierarchical process, et cetera. These are not including several other techniques not mentioned in this paper. These techniques have their own uniqueness. The use of these techniques depend at the situation we are having. Different situations probably require different techniques. One of techniques to process information to win wars is Fuzzy inference system (FIS) which was introduced by Lotfy Zadeh. My friend apply this technique to determine the time needed to make red lamp to turn on, the time needed to make yellow lamp to turn on, and the time needed to make the green lamp to turn on. Other people use it in different things. This technique is useable either to make a decission to give stipends or not. The other technique to process information to win wars is analytical hierarchical process (AHP) which was introduced by Thomas Satty and was using comparisons to make decissions. We need to compare things after we judge how necessary do we need the things. The higher the priority the thing is, the higher score the things will have. The process to multiply the matrix will continue until we get small difference in eigen values. After we get only small difference, we find the consistency ratio after we calculate consistency index with random index. We do the same with the criteria until we get the consistency ratio. Information we need to gather in wars to win wars are the condition of enemy troops, the battle field condition, and other threats from third parties or from other parts of enemy troops. This is usually important because without knowing the condition of our enemy we can become unable to decide the correct time to attact or defend. This condition can make enemy to be able to defeat us. Battle field information can make us to decide the strategies we are going to use to fight. In a naval battle, we will need to use galleons or similar equipments. In an air combat, we will use F-16, Sukhoi or similar aeroplanes., In land, we will use tanks, lances, sword, arrows, guns, et cetera. Failure to know the battle field condition can make us to use wrong equipments to fight. Can you use lances, gun, or sword in a naval battle without any 7

galleons? Other threats or other parts of enemy troops need to be worry because they can attack us at the time we are attacking our target. If we are not guarding our home base, we will need to win or we will be homeless or will have no place to go if all of our bases are taken over by our enemy or if our base adjacent to our enemy base is taken over by others or our enemy and no place we can go because we are surrounded. The quality of information we can obtain usually is better compare with the quantity of information we can obtain. This is because the amount of information will not give any benefits to us if the information are wrong, inaccurate, or out of date. These not good enough information can lead to wrong decision we can make. The more inaccurate or the more out of date the information are, the worse decision we can make. The last thing we must be able to manage in this paper is the quantity of information to win wars. As mentioned in previous paragraph, quantity of information are not better compare with the quality of the information we can get. That is the reason some time we cannot trade quality to get quantity. We need to maintain a good information level to be able to make good decisions. We can say these information are necessary to support our decisions. In short, to win wars, we need plenty of things to manage and consider. Wrong actions can lead to wrong results such as defeat in wars. Wars claim humans live. We need to consider plenty of things before we start wars. We cannot start wars because we hate some other humans because hate can easily turn to love and we cannot regain humans life easily. Besides, war can make plenty of damages and to rebuild a place after wars usually need more resources. We must start wars because some humans violate our rights. We must not start war because we want others things illegally because that is a robbery. We cannot do any robbery although that can make us to be rich men because live is not only to gather resources and thrones but also we need to do correct things in our daily live. Failure to understand that can make others start to hate you because they think that you are a robber and banditry is just not a good occupation to do.

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Wikipedia. (2011, September 3). War in Afganistan (2001-present) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved September 3, 2011, from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_%282001%E2%80%93present%29