Political Science 599 Statistical Methods in Political Research

Fall 2003 http://www.umich.edu/jwbowers/ps599.html Class 10-12 MW, Section 12-1 F

Instructor: Jake Bowers jwbowers@umich.edu 615-7276 GSI: Olesya Tkacheva otkachev@umich.edu Oce Hours: Wednesdays, 2-4pm 6642 Haven Hall 764-6388

TBA

This course aims to help you develop the reasoning necessary to use statistical tools to answer social science questions. No previous experience in statistics is assumed. There arent many rules for the course, but theyre all important. First o, read the assigned readings before you come to class. Second, turn everything in on time. Third, ask questions when you dont understand things; chances are youre not alone. Fourth, dont miss class or section. Well calculate your grade for the course this way: 60%, problem sets; 30%, nal exam; 10%, course involvement. There are four required books for the class at the Shaman Drum bookstore: Wonnacott, Thomas H. and Ronald J. Wonnacott. 1990. Introductory Statistics for Business and Economics, 4th Edition. Abelson, Robert. 1995. Statistics as Principled Argument. Achen, Chris. 1982. Interpreting and Using Regression. Kleppner, Daniel and Norman Ramsey. 1985. Quick Calculus: A Self-Teaching Guide, 2nd Edition. And two recommended books: Greene, William. 2002. Econometric Analysis, 5th edition, goes into more detail, at a more sophisticated level than Wonnacott and Wonnacott. Any time Greene is listed as a reading, it is as recommended, not required. Chiang, Alpha. 1984. Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics is a good resource for basic calculus and matrix algebra. Theres a small course pack lled with required readings. Ive marked those readings with an asterisk below. Any required readings not marked with an asterisk are available online through mirlyn.

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Schedule
9/3, WednesdayIntroduction to the class. Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 3-24, Chapter 1 Homework: Hand out Problem Set 0

9/8, MondayDescriptive statistics, Part 1 *V.O. Key, A Primer of Statistics for Political Scientists, vii-ix. Abelson, xi-2. Harold F. Gosnell, Statisticians and Political Scientists, APSR 27(3, June, 1933):392-403. Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 25-68 Homework: Hand out Problem Set 1.

9/10, WednesdayDescriptive statistics, Part 2 *V.O. Key, 1-27 Abelson, 2-8 Section: James K. Pollock, An Areal Study of the German Electorate, 1930-1933, APSR 38(1, February, 1944):89-95. 9/15, MondayProbability, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 69-109 Homework: Problem Set 1 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

9/17, WednesdayProbability, Part 2 Section: Stuart A. Rice, Some Applications of Statistical Method to Political Research, APSR 20(2, May, 1926):313-329. Kleppner and Ramsey, Quick Calculus, 50-76.

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9/22, MondayProbability distributions, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 110-152 9/24, WednesdayProbability distributions, Part 2 Abelson, 17-26 Section: Floyd H. Allport and D.A.Hartman, The Measurement and Motivation of Atypical Opinion in a Certain Group, APSR 19(4, November, 1925):735-760. Kleppner and Ramsey, 76-81. Wonnacott and Wonnacott, p. 741-742, appendix to section 4-4 9/29, MondayTwo random variables Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 153-186 Homework: Problem Set 2 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

10/1, WednesdaySampling, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 189-230 Section: Samuel J. Eldersveld, The Inuence of Metropolitan Party Pluralities in Presidential Elections Since 1920: A Study of Twelve Key Cities, APSR 43 (6, December, 1949):11891206. Kleppner and Ramsey, 91-108. 10/6, MondaySampling, Part 2 Abelson, 26-42 10/8, WednesdayPoint estimation, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 231-253 Abelson, 42-52 Homework: Problem Set 3 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

Section: James T. Russell and Quincy Wright, National Attitudes on the Far Eastern Controversy, APSR 27(4, August, 1933):555-576. *Bradley and Meek, Matrices and Society: Matrix Algebra and Its Applications in the Social Sciences. 7-29.

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10/13, MondayBreak, No Class 10/15, WednesdayPoint estimation, Part 2 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 564-581 Section: Samuel J. Eldersveld, Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behavior, APSR 50(1, March, 1956):154-165. *Bradley and Meek, 30-41. 10/20, MondayCondence intervals, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 253-286 Abelson, 52-53 10/22, WednesdayCondence intervals, Part 2 Section: Robert E. Lane, Political Personality and Electoral Choice, APSR 49(1, March, 1955): 173-190. *Hanushek and Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. 349-359. 10/27, MondayHypothesis testing, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 287-323 Abelson, 8-16 Homework: Problem Set 4 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

10/29, WednesdayHypothesis testing, Part 2 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 517-563 Abelson, 54-77 Section: Thomas A. Flinn, Party Responsibility in the States, APSR 58(1, March, 1964):6071. Greene 6-27 11/3, MondayAnalysis of Variance Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 324-354

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11/5, WednesdayRegression, Part 1 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 357-370 Section: Seymour Martin Lipset, Some Social Requisites of Democracy, APSR 53(1, March, 1959):69-105. Greene 62-78 11/10, MondayRegression, Part 2 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 371-395 Homework: Problem Set 5 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

11/12, WednesdayRegression, Part 3 Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, beginning to end Section: Donald E. Stokes, Angus Campbell, and Warren E. Miller, Components of Electoral Decision, APSR 52(2, June, 1958): 367-387. Greene 101-127 11/17, MondayRegression, Part 4 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 396-433 11/19, WednesdayRegression, Part 5 Abelson, 78-103 *V.O. Key, 105-129. Section: *Tufte. The Visual Display of Data. 27-53.

11/24, Monday Regression, Part 6 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 434-473 11/26, WednesdayRegression, Part 7 Abelson, 104-131

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Section:

*Granger, The Specication of Empirical Models.

12/1, MondayRegression, Part 8 *V.O. Key, 154-184 Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 474-514 Homework: Problem Set 6 Due, 10 a.m., in class.

12/3, WednesdayRegression, Part 9 Abelson, 132-155 Section: Harold F. Gosnell and Norman N. Gill, An Analysis of the 1932 Presidential Vote in Chicago, APSR 29(6, December, 1935):967-984. Greene 220-225 12/8, MondayRegression, Part 10 Abelson, 156-169 12/10, WednesdayConclusion Abelson, 170-198 Section: Review

Greene 225-243