by Ishak Mia by Deepak Tripathi by Ramzy Baroud

by Marshall Auerback

Volume I

Issue XIV

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International Policy Digest

Volume I Issue IV

by Marshall Auerback 3

by Ishak Mia 7

by Deepak Tripathi 12

by Ramzy Baroud 15

The Greatest Show on Earth by Uri Avney China's Involvement in Mozambique by Ambassador David H Shinn Sectarian Violence in Balochistan by Aurangzaib Alamgir Syria: Has the United States Abandoned the Rebels? by Sudhanshu Tripathi Romney's Running Mate: Paul Ryan and the GOP by Binoy Kampmark Arab's "Spring" or Turkey's "Rise"? by Naili Nabil Provisional Constitution Heightens Tensions in Somalia by Mohamud Uluso Photo Citations

6 8 10 13 14 16 17 19

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Volume I Issue IV

reece has moved off center stage, as Spain has become the preoccupation de jour for Europes increasingly embattled authorities. But one has to wonder how the Greek banking system has managed to sustain itself over the past several months, given widespread deposit flight and the countrys ongoing solvency challenges. Well, we now have a better idea, courtesy of a leak to the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel, which has published information about ECB plans to keep Greece on its feet until the next tranche of European Union-International Monetary Fund aid is paid out. According to Der Spiegel, the ECB has chosen a detour via the Greek central bank under its so-called Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program: Now, information has leaked regarding how the ECB plans to keep Greece on its feet until the next tranche of European Union-

By Marshall Auerback
International Monetary Fund aid is paid out. The ECB has chosen a detour via the Greek central bank. It will allow it to issue additional emergency loans to the countrys banks. These in turn are supposed to use the money to buy up Greek bonds with short maturities. This will scrape together 4 billion, according to the plan. Although the context of the Der Spiegel article suggests that the ELA has been activated here for Greece as a short-term bridging measure, it is almost certain that the program has already been used extensively by the ECB to keep Greece alive. Perhaps this is what Mr. Draghi meant when he suggested that he would do whatever it takes to keep the euro alive? We have long speculated that the main source of funding for Greece over the last several has been the European Central Banks ELA program, given that it has become virtually cut off from Target 2. To reiterate: Under Article 66 of the EU treaty there is complete capital mobility within the Eurozone. A citizen in any country can

hold deposits in the common euro currency in banks domiciled in other countries. To meet this opportunity the banks in Europes northern core improved the banking facilities they offer to prospective deposit and loan clients on Europes periphery. Guaranteed freedom of capital movements and the introduction of the common currency opened the door for citizens in the periphery countries to move their deposits to banks domiciled in the northern core, and those northern core banks facilitated that transfer in every way. As a result it is virtually costless for a Spanish citizen to

When banks in some Eurozone countries in this case the periphery have funding problems and dont meet Target 2 collateral

August 1st - 15th

conduct all of his euro business with a German bank. Given this ease of capital movements there had to be in the Euro area a quiet automatic payment system that would deal with transfers from banks in one country to banks in another. Initially the architects of the European monetary system thought that the private markets would accomplish all the needed financial transfers. If a Spanish bank lost deposits and a German bank received deposits, the interbank market would allow the German bank to immediately and profitably put the money to work and in doing so allow the Spanish bank to fund its deposit loss. And apparently this is how things went in the early years of the euro. In 2007 German banks had direct claims on banks on the periphery of over 800 billion euros. However, when the Great Crisis occurred in 2008-2009 market confidence ebbed and private sector interbank lending dried up, especially to the European periphery. As a result German bank claims on banks in the periphery have since fallen in half. What made up the difference? First, the payments transfer system through the system of European Central banks called Target 2. Target 2 refers to Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer. It is the euro systems operational tool through which the national central banks of member states provide payment and settlement services for intra/euro area transactions. Target 2 claims can arise from trade and current account transactions as well as from purely financial transactions.

requirements, they can borrow under the ELA. This is the program now likely being used to keep Greece afloat. As the Der Spiegel article notes, such assistance is extended by single national central banks to their banking systems, in this case the Bank of Greece. In theory, the risk is borne at the national level. The national central bank in a country like Greece with commercial bank deposit runs ultimately funds its ELA financial assistance to its commercial banks from the ECB. That ECB funding for ELA is above and beyond Target 2 funding. In theory, because as the German article points out, the ECB is no longer accepting Greek national bonds, so what else is available as decent collateral? It is true that the collateral requirements imposed upon a commercial bank for obtaining ELA funds is less than the collateral requirements needed for obtaining Target 2 funds, but one wonders how Greek commercial banks, facing an acute deposit run, can offer up anything as value. The Elgin Marbles perhaps?

Recently financial transactions have become dominant. Funds have been taken out of banks on Europes periphery and have been deposited in banks in the north of Europe, principally in Germany. The bank receiving the deposit places those funds with the Bundesbank (or other recipient national central banks) in doing so it has its funds delivered through the Bundesbank (or other recipient national central banks) to the bank on the periphery that has lost deposit funds. That is a Target 2 transaction. The so-called Target 2 outstanding balance is the net position of such claims between two European countries. There are specific collateral requirements that must be met for Target 2 funding of banks to occur. Sometimes banks with deposit losses cannot meet those collateral requirements. However, there are other Lender of Last Resort channels, such as the Emergency Liquidity Assistance program, that can come into play.

As the German publication notes, the irony is that the ECB is no long accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for its refinancing operation

As the German publication notes, the irony is that the ECB is no long accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for its refinancing operation: But the Greek central bank which in reality is little more than the Athens branch of the ECB is still allowed to accept them. So what we have here functionally is uncollateralised lending to Greece on the part of the ECB, as what kind of collateral could the Greeks actually offer at this juncture which would in reality be acceptable and creditworthy? No matter what Mr Draghi says publicly, privately he does appear to be using every trick at his disposal to keep the eurozone from blowing up, and one suspects that this aggressive use of ELA is what is getting the Germans so exorcised right now. The ELA support to Greece is likely already in excess of 100 billion euros by virtue of the silent bank run sweeping across the Eurozone. One can only imagine the magnitude of the support ultimately required for the likes of Spain or Italy. Perhaps this covert ELA support is what the ECB President meant when he delivered his Whatever it Takes speech in London in late July. It also likely explains why the Germans are getting more vociferous in their complaints about open-ended commitments to the periphery countries. No doubt deploying the logic of his ancestral countryman, Mr Draghi might not be breaching the letter of the law of the Maastricht Treaty, but he is certainly breaking its spirit, on the Machiavellian grounds that the end preserving the euro justifies the means. It is probably no coincidence that this information was leaked to a German publication. If one were to speculate on the source, a likely candidate is the Bundesbank, which is trying to put a halt to this whole process. It is true, as Gavyn Davies argued in the Financial Times a

As long as the national central banks are willing to allow these ECB support programs to continue indefinitely, then the single currency simply cannot break up

International Policy Digest

few days ago, that as long as the national central banks are willing to allow these ECB support programs to continue indefinitely, then the

single currency simply cannot break up: That is what makes it a single currency. But Davies also recognized that potential losses under the ECBs lender of last resort programs after a euro break up have become a political issue within Germany, undermining market confidence in the ultimate stability of the euro. And if the European Monetary Union were to break up, it would mean that todays huge contingent liabilities facing Germany under both Target 2 and now,

He once told me how he brought documents to British officers in the King David hotel, the building which he later as Irgun commander ordered to be bombed. Years later, the Queen graciously received him as Prime Minister of Israel. Altogether, we had the feeling that we were lucky to be fighting the British, and not, say, a French or American (not to mention Israeli) occupation regime. After this confession, another one: I am not a sports enthusiast. Actually, I have no sense for sport at all.

Volume I Issue IV

increasingly, under the ELA, would become real ones likely in the range of trillions of euros. And if the German Government (which has remained conspicuously quiet in the wake of Mr Draghis now famous speech) decided under public pressure from the Bundesbank (as well as mounting concerns within the German body politic) to be tough and draw the line on further lender of last resort financing, people would fear bank closures and a dagger in the heart of an unstable ECB. Any other government that puts in question the resulting unstable financial equilibrium would run the same risk. Is the relative summer calm about to be disrupted by the release of this sensitive information?

o sum up the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in one word: kitsch. To sum up the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in two words: wonderful kitsch. Honest disclosure: I am an Anglophile. At the age of 15 I started working for an Oxford-educated lawyer. At the office only English was spoken. So I had to learn it, and immediately fell hopelessly in love with the English language and British culture in general. Some may wonder at this, since at the same time I joined a terrorist organization whose aim was to fight the British and drive them out of Palestine. Soon after my 15th birthday I faced the admission panel of the Irgun. I was asked if I hated the British. Facing the beam of a powerful projector, I answered: no. Sensing the consternation on the other side of the blinding light, I added that I wanted to liberate our country, and did not need to hate the British to do that. Actually, I think that most Irgun fighters felt like that. The nominal Commander in Chief, Vladimir (Zeev) Jabotinsky, was an ardent anglophile and once wrote that the Englishman in the colonies was a brutal oppressor, but that the Englishman at home was a decent and likeable fellow. When Great Britain declared war on Nazi Germany, Jabotinsky ordered the immediate cessation of all Irgun actions. The Irguns military commander, David Raziel, was killed by a Nazi bomb while assisting the British in Iraq. His successor, Menachem Begin, came to Palestine with the Polish exile army, in which he served as a Polish-English interpreter. In this capacity he was often in contact with the British authorities.

The Greatest Show on Earth

By Uri Avnery

Even as a child, I was the worst in gymnastics class. A good book always attracted me more than an exciting football game. My father treated sport as goyim-naches Pleasure for Goyim. (Naches in Yiddish is derived from the Hebrew word Nakhat, pleasure or satisfaction. But back to the Olympics. In the summer of their discontent, the British produced something unique: original, exciting, surprising, moving, humorous. I laughed when Her Majesty jumped out of the helicopter, I almost shed a tear when the handicapped children sang God Save The Queen. But let us go beyond the pomp and circumstance. Do the Olympic games have a deeper significance? I think they do. Konrad Lorenz, the Austrian professor who researched the behavior of animals as a basis for understanding human behavior, asserted that sports are a substitute for war. Nature has equipped humans with aggressive instincts. They were an instrument for survival. When resources on earth were scarce, humans, like other animals, had to fight off intruders in order to stay alive.

This aggressiveness is so deeply imbedded in our biological heritage that it is quite useless to try to eliminate it. Instead, Lorenz thought, we must find harmless outlets for it. Sport is one answer. And indeed, looking at the various manifestations of this human pastime, one cannot but notice the similarities with war. National flags are carried around by victory-crazy crowds. The defeated feel and behave like armies after a lost battle. In ancient times, wars were often settled by duels. Each army would send forward a champion, and mortal combat between the two would decide the issue. Such was the legendary fight between David and Goliath. In todays sports, a single champion often fights for his nation in the tennis court, the judo ring or the Olympic pool. A national football (soccer) team certainly goes into battle for the honor of its country, borne on waves of patriotism. Each player is profoundly conscious of the huge responsibility resting on his shoulders (or in his feet). A beaten team often looks like the pitiful remnants of Napoleons Grand Army retreating from Russia. In Europe, where national sovereignty is gradually losing its meaning, football has taken its place. When you see a crowd marching through the streets of any European city, shouting and waving the national flag, intoxicated with national pride (and

Some may wonder at this, since at the same time I joined a terrorist organization whose aim was to fight the British and drive them out of Palestine

alcohol), you know that an important match is taking place. The much-condemned English football hooligans (named after a riotous Irish family in London) are not so far removed from the spirit of the game. Patriotism, war and violence all grow on the same tree. For the Israeli team, the consciousness of National Duty is most pronounced. Israels sportsmen and sportswomen do not win for themselves, they win for the Jewish People. Every (scarce) victory is a national victory, every (alas, so frequent) defeat is a defeat for

others, races mingled, prejudices evaporated. It is interesting to compare this international meeting with another place where all the nations meet: the United Nations Organization. In the match between the two, the Olympics win hands down. Can anyone imagine an Olympic meeting where some nations possess a formal veto and use it against another nation? Can one compare the inbuilt inactivity of the UN with the hyperactivity of the games?

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Israel. Thus it is represented in our media, thus the winners and losers themselves see it. In a way, sport is not only a substitute for war, but also for religion.

We tend to see ourselves as the center of the world, a power well beyond our modest size. Yet here our delegation was marching, one among many, one of the smaller ones, without the glamor some of the others possess, without a single champion that all mankind recognizes.
There is a religious fervor to sports. Enough to look at the faces of the football players before the beginning of a match, devoutly singing the national anthem, in order to become conscious of the sacredness of the occasion though a British player may come from Jamaica and a French one from Algeria. Even in the understated British opening ceremony, the religious undertones were obvious. The Torch, the Flag, the High Priests. Onward Christian soldiers, marching as to war. Also Muslim soldiers. Also Jewish soldiers, and so on. In Israel, Jewish sportsmen and sportswomen often invoke the Almighty in their matches. They clutch amulets blessed by Kabbalist rabbis, pray and ask for divine favor. (Which must be a headache for the Divine Referee when Jews play Jews.) I suppose that in ancient Greece, where it all began, players invoked the various Gods and Goddesses, calling for the best God to win. In the wide-flung Byzantine Empire, two colors battled each other for generations. Sport, as represented by the Olympic games, is now a worldwide cult, less harmful than most, without the mumbo jumbo of some, uniting rather than dividing. Altogether a good thing. The uniting factor is, perhaps, the most outstanding characteristic of this event. Hundreds of millions, perhaps a billion human beings watched it around the globe, each represented by his (or her) national champions. That is more than a curiosity. Hopefully, it is a picture of the future. Watching the entrance of the delegations was an uplifting experience. Almost all the nations on earth were represented, following each other in quick succession, waving their colorful flags. During the following days they competed with each other, met each other, respecting each other, all in a spirit of comradeship. Sportsmen and women from one nation admired the achievements of those from

For me, this is the main attraction of the event. I am a strong believer in world governance. I believe that it is an absolute necessity for the survival of the human race and the planet. Climate change, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the global economy, worldwide communications all make global cooperation both necessary and possible. I am fairly sure that by the end of the 21st century, some sort of global government, based on global democracy, will be in place. The Olympic Games are a good example for such a reality. All the nations are represented, all have equal rights, and, most importantly all abide by the same rules. In principle, each champion has the same chance of winning a gold medal as anyone else belonging to this or that big or small nation does not matter. Wouldnt it be great if the entire world were organized along the same lines? For an Israeli, the procession was a sobering experience. We tend to see ourselves as the center of the world, a power well beyond our modest size. Yet here our delegation was marching, one among many, one of the smaller ones, without the glamor some of the others possess, without a single champion that all mankind recognizes. A good reason for modesty a virtue we cannot usually boast of.

International Policy Digest

Volume I Issue IV

ndia has long sought road transit facilities through Bangladesh for the transport of goods from West Bengal to other Northeastern states. Due to unresolved bilateral issues and internal political objection, Bangladesh has consistently avoided the subject over the past few years. With changes to the governments in both countries the transit issue has recently gained new momentum. The Awami League, the ruling party of Bangladesh, is very eager to sign a comprehensive transit deal with India for all forms of transportation roads, rail and waterways. Historically, the Awami League has had close ties to the Indias ruling Congress party. In fact, the present government is overwhelmed by the fact that Bangladesh will get a major financial benefit from any transit deal. Not only financially, there are opportunities for other long-term benefits. This is clearly reflected in the governments decision to provide a limited scale transit facility to India by amending the 1972

By Ishak Mia

bilateral Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) effective since April of last year. It allows India to transport goods from Kolkata to the Ashuganj river port point in Bangladesh, and then to Agartala in northeast India by road links. As agreed, India will pay Tk 100 million (US$ 1.25 million USD) to Bangladesh annually for the maintenance of river channels which it will use as a transit route, with no tariff and transport related service charges. There is much talk now between different government departments about the parameter of fixing tariff rates, if full-scale transit facilities are given to India. However, the government is not taking into consideration the necessity of doing extensive homework or study to assess the potential environmental risks of transit in Bangladesh. In the present global scenario, any large-scale project implementation requires prior environmental assessment as to the effects of environmental degradation on the economy of the society in terms of poverty, food

boring states, Switzerland set tariffs only after the assessment of environmental loss of transit traffic in the mountain Alps. Earlier this year, the Bangladeshi governments core committee on transit proposed 17 routes for transit traffic seven by road, seven by rail and three by waterway. It is in fact suicidal for Bangladesh to grant transit facilities to India through its multiple routes when environmental issues are being avoided. Even discussing these concerns in public has largely been ignored by civil society groups, political parties and the mainstream media.

insecurity and health hazards. For example, in the case of providing transit facilities to neigh-

siltation in the riverbeds and ecological imbalance in the areas. The agricultural production on adjacent land has been seriously affected by the flooding of cropland. All the people whose life and livelihoods are inextricably linked to the river Titas face an uncertain and gloomy future. The environmental damage is enormous. The question is, can Bangladesh bear such environmental losses of transit traffic since the country is fighting for survival against climate change, sea level rise and the recurrent natural disasters? The government must therefore make sure that transit plans are environmentally affordable, not just economically beneficial. Otherwise the costs of environmental damage could be higher than the financial benefits of transit.

August 1st - 15th

Of course, transit will pose a serious threat to the environment in Bangladesh. The establishment of new road and rail links that require acquiring land will not only evict thousands of people from their homes, but will also destroy trees, water bodies and productive farmlands. Some effects have already begun to appear from the use of limited transit passage by India. In July 2010, Dhaka and Delhi signed a project for the development of road communications from Akhaura to Agartala at a cost of $33 million to facilitate Indian ODC (Over Dimensional Cargo) movement. The prime responsibility for implementing the project was given to Indian ABC Construction. According to a PROBE News Magazine report (November 5-11, 2010), Work is on at full speed. About 500 trees have been felled for the purpose and nearby water bodies are being filled up with cement and sand bags over which steel sheet are being placed for the trailer to ply with the ODC. Local people complained that these arrangements will obstruct natural water flow in the area causing serious water-logging during monsoon. It is observed that the impacts of water logging on the local environment, economy and livelihoods are numerous. The impacts of water logging have been identified as damaging to roads, disruption of communication, losses to business and employment and less industrial production. Water pollution, increase of fish diseases and spilling or the overflow of fishponds occurs during the water logging period. Homes and latrines collapse resulting in serious health hazards and various water born diseases break out in that period. The report further stated that the local district administration already started the process of acquiring land at the village Charchartala near the Ashuganj fertilizer factory silos to set up the transshipment centre and a yard with the capacity for 60 thousand containers. The land in question has several rice mills, a shrine and many houses. But thats not allvery recently a long diversion road was built through a Bangladeshi river called Titas for facilitating transshipment of Indian heavy machinery and equipment by Over Dimensional Cargo (ODC) lorries as the existing roads and bridges will not able to handle the weight. Local media reports that this concrete road across of the river Titas has created a serious decline in the freshwater flow, heavy

All the people whose life and livelihoods are inextricably linked to the river Titas face an uncertain and gloomy future

Chinas Involvement in Mozambique

hina-Mozambique ties are pretty typical of those with most African countries. Unlike many countries in Africa, however, Mozambique never recognized Taiwan. In 1963, five FRELIMO delegations visited China, including one headed by its leader at the time, Eduardo Mondlane. When a faction broke away from FRELIMO in 1965 and formed COREMO, China favored the new pro-Beijing COREMO organization but also continued to support FRELIMO. When COREMO disappeared in the early 1970s, China threw all of its support behind FRELIMO, which had pro-Moscow and pro-Beijing factions. This policy was dictated by the fact that the Sino-Soviet split had reached its peak. China stepped up its military training for FRELIMO fighters operating out of Tanzania. FRELIMO leader Samora Machel visited China in 1971 and 1975. Mozambique became independent in 1975 and immediately recognized Beijing. China granted an interest-free loan of $56 million and sent the first in a continuing series of medical teams to Mozambique that has continued up to the present day. The Chinese embassy claims that since the first medical team arrived in 1976, Chinese medical staff have treated 1.3 million patients and trained more than 2,000 Mozambicans. Samora Machel, however, preferred the USSR over China because it had provided more military support to FRELIMO during the liberation struggle. Relations improved briefly in 1978 when Machel visited China and about 100 Chinese military specialists were working in Mozambique. China provided $60 million in credits, making Mozambique one of its largest aid recipients in Africa. This was followed by a setback. Mozambique criticized China over its border war with Vietnam and took the side of the Soviet Union during its intervention in Afghanistan. China also experienced an embarrassing incident in Maputo in 1982 when a junior officer in the embassy had a dispute with other staff members and killed nine of them. China took advantage of a 1983 famine followed by a flood and

By Ambassador David H. Shinn

International Policy Digest

channeling Chinese capital to Mozambique. This resulted in a joint venture called Zamcorp to promote

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offered much needed assistance. Machel returned to Beijing in 1984 and obtained more than $20 million in economic aid. China continued to increase its aid Mozambique did not criticize China during the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. In the 1980s, the two countries signed numerous agreements. One in 1988 was between FRELIMO and the Communist Party of China (CPC), followed by Chinas agreement to build Mozambiques parliament building. President Joaquim Chissano visited Beijing in 1988. Expansion of Relations China-Mozambique relations did not advance significantly in the 1990s in spite of the fact that China became Mozambiques natural partner after the collapse of the Soviet Union. By the late 1990s, high level contact picked up in both directions with Chissano going to China in 1998 and 2004 and Mozambiques premier visiting three times. They signed new trade agreements and China built Mozambiques Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The relationship took off in the 21st century. President Armando Guebuza attended the 2006 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and returned for the 2008 Olympic Games. Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Maputo in 2007 when he promised several new projects, including a $6 million agricultural technology center that was inaugurated in 2011 and a national stadium. China canceled $52 million of Mozambiques debt. As with most other African countries, the security relationship has consisted primarily of high-level exchange visits. In 2007, however, China gave the armed forces $1.5 million in nonmilitary equipment. Two years later it agreed to provide the military $3 million for the purchase of logistical equipment and to continue to train the military. In 2008, FRELIMO and the CPC signed a four year memorandum on cadre training China sends lecturers to FRELIMOs Central School. Most of Chinas engagement in Mozambique is now focused on the economic relationship. A third of all roads in the country are being built by Chinese companies in addition to the auditor-generals office, Maputo International Airport, national soccer stadium, national conference center, communications networks, and water supply projects. China began offering five scholarships annually in 1992 about 200 hundred students were studying in China by 2012. A joint Sino-Lusophone initiative known as Geocapital based in Macau created in 2005-2006 a private fund with the aim of

development in the Zambezi River Valley. As of late 2011, Zamcorp had no projects under development. On the other hand, two financial institutions grew out of this effort: Moza Capital (investment banking) and Moza Banco (primarily corporate banking). By 2008, Moza Banco established a retail bank with Mozambican investors who have close ties to FRELIMO. Although Moza Banco has not funded any big investments, it is looking at projects in energy and agro-industry. This initiative has had surprisingly little success so far. Nevertheless, in 2008, China became the second largest investor in Mozambique after South Africa and rose from number 26 a decade earlier. As of 2010, China had invested $607 million in Mozambique. In 2010, China pledged to invest $13 billion in industrial, tourism, mining and energy projects over the next five or ten years, depending on the source of the report. It is highly doubtful, however, that all of this investment will materialize. The largest Chinese investment so far is Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporations $800 million to develop coal reserves for export to China and purchase of an 8 percent share of Riversdale, an Australian company, for $200 million that has coal concessions in Mozambique. Mozambiques prime minister made two visits to China in 2010 when he received promises from the Export-Import Bank for $165 million in financing to upgrade Maputo International Airport and build cement and cotton processing factories. In 2011, China funded at a cost of $156 million about one-quarter of the total cost of the All-Africa Games held in Maputo. A Chinese company began construction on a $439 million housing project in a middle class suburb of Maputo. In 2011, a CPC delegation signed agreements to establish a Confucius Institute that opened in 2012 and a Portugueselanguage station for China Radio International.

President Guebuza during a six-day state visit to China in 2011 signed 12 financial agreements with China, including $15.8 million for distance education and science and technology programs, half as donations and half as interest-free credit. Guebuza regularly praises China, describing it as a partner and not a colonizer. China Kingho Energy announced it would provide initial funding for construction of a coal terminal at the port of Beira and upgrade the Sena rail that links the Moatize coal mines in northwest Mozambique. One of the most recent projects was the launching of a Center for Cooperation on Poverty Reduction, which will draw on Chinese strategies for dealing with poverty. China-Mozambique trade is modest and consistently favors China. This is a potential problem area, although large coal exports to China will probably change the trade balance. While trade with China is greater than US-Mozambique trade, Mozambique is not one of Chinas largest African trading partners. Mozambique imports

The relationship has experienced a few problems at the governmental level and generated much more skepticism outside the government-to-government structure

construction material, machinery, motorcycles, motor vehicles,

electronic products, footwear and electrical products from China. It exports primarily aluminum, oil seeds, cotton, seafood and timber to China. Mozambique Airline (LAM) announced that it will begin direct flights to China later this year. Challenges in the Relationship The relationship has experienced a few problems at the governmental level and generated much more skepticism outside the government-to-government structure. Mozambiques Ministry of Labor has fined a number of Chinese companies and revoked work permits of some Chinese workers. In 2007, Mozambique seized 531 containers of illegal log exports valued at $7 million purchased by Chinese companies. After paying fines, the shipment went forward. Mozambican civil society and NGOS have been critical of Chinese business persons and their Mozambican associates for the illegal export of forest products and plundering of fisheries resources, often by bribing local officials.

high crime rates and poor infrastructure are slowing down what would otherwise be an even faster Chinese expansion in

August 1st - 15th

Mozambique. A former Mozambican foreign minister suggested a more cautionary evaluation of the China-Mozambique relationship: In the end its up to us, the Chinese like anyone else have their interests and will plunder us to the extent that we let them.

In 2007, Mozambique reportedly granted China leases to establish Chinese-run farms and cattle ranches for 3,000 settlers. The report caused such uproar that the government was forced to deny that there was any such agreement. China remains interested, however, in agricultural development for both local sale and export to China. This is another area where transparency is in short supply. There has also been criticism of too many Chinese workers in Mozambique who take jobs that should go to Mozambicans. Chinese companies have addressed this issue and by 2010 had significantly increased local hires. Estimates on the number of Chinese in Mozambique as of 2011 ranged from 7,000 to 12,000, not a huge number compared with some other African countries. Early reports indicated that China would finance the controversial $2.3 billion Mphanda Nkuwa dam downriver from the Cahora Basa dam. Chinese funding usually guarantees a Chinese company will build the dam. In this case, however, Mozambique subsequently awarded the project to a consortium of two national energy companies (60%) and a Brazilian construction company (40%). The reasons for this change of signals are not clear. Future of the Relationship As the major financier and builder in Africa and Mozambique today, that link alone will guarantee strong interaction with China for years to come. The Macau connection with the Lusophone countries of Africa is also an important part of the relationship with Mozambique, especially concerning investment. Loro Horta, an expert on Sino-Lusophone Africa relations, concluded last year that China is fast emerging as the most important economic and diplomatic player in Mozambique, bringing billions of dollars in investments and asking no questions. He added that Sino-Mozambican relations are likely to continue to grow with Beijing emerging as the main economic and strategic player in Mozambique and in East Africa. Horta did note that riots,

There has also been criticism of too many Chinese workers in Mozambique who take jobs that should go to Mozambicans

10

n the last four years, more than 65 attacks have occurred on the Hazara people in Pakistans Balochistan province, and in the first six months of 2012, more than 22 alone. The attacks have led to countless killings and have left thousands wounded. 2003 marked the first time that there were attacks against the Hazaras in Balochistan and this coincided with the insurgency movement in Balochistan. Many attribute these killings as part of the sectarian divide that has existed in Pakistan since the 1980s as a result of the widening Shia-Sunni fault line. Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has not been able to consolidate as a nation state or create a single national identity. Infrequent attempts by fundamental Sunni sects to bandit the practice of Shiaism have fueled violence and divided the Pakistani society along sectarian lines. The sectarian divide breaks down roughly to 75 to 85 percent Sunni and 15 to 25 percent Shia. Since the partition of Pakistan, the Hazaras have been a neglected community. The persecution of the Hazaras has forced them to seek asylum in many countries like Malaysia, Australia and Iran. There are nearly 20,000 Hazaras in Australia. Cross-Border Activism Pakistans Afghan policy in the 1980s and 90s aggravated sectarian violence. Afghan resistance against the Soviet Union in the 1980s resulted in the proliferation and easy availability of small arms in Pakistan. The emergence of the Taliban in the 1990s and their support of Sunni organizations such as the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen influenced sectarian violence. Sipah-i-Sahaba cadres were trained in Afghanistan and most of them fought the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Shias inside Pakistan. The Hazaras played an important role in the Northern Alliance in denying the Taliban total control over Afghanistan. In addition, the Hazars in Quetta are also targeted by Whabai fundamentalist as they are accused of favouring American policy and intervention in Afghanistan. As Quetta has become a safe haven for the Taliban, they have expressed deep hatred over the Hazars and attacked them when possible. Pakistans ISI Pakistans ISI has wielded so much influence within Pakistan that it has been labeled, A State within a State and A Kindgom within a State. The strength and momentum that the Baloch insurgency has received over the years has created a sense of insecurity for the ISI, as there is a wide acknowledgement now that the Pakistani Army and

Sectarian Violence in Balochistan

By Aurangzaib Alamgir

International Policy Digest

the ISI are the root cause for the injustices felt by many Balochs. Pakistans ISI does not like the idea of withdrawing from Balochistan

as they feel this would enable more and more people to join the ranks of the insurgents and allow them free movements to conduct operations against the government. Thus, to tackle this situation and to divert public attention from the Balochistan independence movement and delay the Pakistani armys potential withdrawel, there is a possibility that Pakistans ISI is playing a role in combating the insurgency. It is inconceivable to think that the Pakistani government is not aware of ISIs activities in Balochistan. Quetta city is not Waziristan where the extremists reign supreme. The ISI is such a ubiquitous organization that practically nothing of importance takes place without its full knowledge or approval. Conclusion It can be argued that the sectarian violence in Balochistan is not

only associated with Islamic fundamentalism and the Sunni-Shia fault line but also involves geo-political strategies of other ethnic groups

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in Balochistan. Hazaras neutral stand in the on-going insurgency in Balochistan and their silence on the massacre of the Baloch people has created resentment towards them. Pashtoons, on the other hand, are also concerned of Hazaras controlling the two mountains surrounding the Pashtoon population therefore giving no easy escape to the Pashtoon people in case of a clash with either Hazaras or Balochs. In order to protect themselves, Hazaras should engage with Baloch insurgency and prove their loyalty of being the inhabitants of the Baloch land. This would not only give them a protection against their political massacre but also Balochs would defend them from being victims of Islamic fundamentalism.

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August 1st - 15th

he revelation about President Barack Obamas decision to provide secret American aid to Syrias rebel forces is a game changer. The presidential order, known as an intelligence finding in the world of espionage, authorizes the CIA to support armed groups fighting to overthrow Bashar al-Assads government. But it threatens far more than the regime in Damascus. The disclosure took its first casualty immediately. Kofi Annan, the special envoy to Syria, promptly announced his resignation, bitterly protesting that the UN Security Council had become a forum for finger-pointing and name-calling. Annan blamed all sides directly involved in the Syrian conflict, including local combatants and their foreign backers. But the timing of his resignation was striking. For he knew that with the CIA helping Syrias armed groups, Americas Arab allies joining in and the Security Council deadlocked, he was redundant. President Obamas order to supply CIA aid to anti-government forces in Syria has echoes of an earlier secret order signed by President Jimmy Carter, also a Democrat, in July 1979. Carters fateful decision was the start of a CIA-led operation to back Mujahideen groups then fighting the Communist government in

By Deepak Tripathi
Afghanistan. As I discuss the episode in my book Breeding Ground: Afghanistan and the Origins of Islamist Terrorism, the operation, launched with a modest aid package, became a multi-billion dollar war project against the Communist regime in Kabul and the Soviet Union, whose forces invaded Afghanistan in December 1979. In the following year, Carter was defeated by Ronald Reagan, who went for broke, pouring money and weapons into Afghanistan against the Soviet occupation forces to the bitter end. Carters national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski later claimed that it was done on his recommendation, and that the motive was to lure Soviet forces into Afghanistan to give the Kremlin its Vietnam. The Soviets humiliating retreat from Afghanistan in 1989, the collapse of Soviet and Afghan communism and the rise of the Taliban triggered a chain reaction with worldwide consequences. President Obamas decision to intervene in support of Syrias rebels, who include fundamentalist Islamic fighters, points to history repeating itself. Brzezinski, now in his 85th year, still visits Washingtons corridors of power. And General David Petraeus, a formidable warrior, is director of the CIA. Three decades on, it seems likely that President Carters motive behind signing the secret order to provide aid to the Mujahideen was

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International Policy Digest

to entice the Soviets into Afghanistans inhospitable terrain, thus keeping their military away from Iran in the midst of the Islamic

Revolution which overthrew Americas proxy, Shah Reza Pahlavi, in February 1979. If that was indeed the plan, then the Soviet leadership fell right into the Afghan trap. China was then part of the U.S.-led alliance against the Soviets. Now Beijing and Moscow stand together against Washington as the conflict in Syria escalates. Otherwise, the U.S.-led alliance has many of the old playersthe much enlarged European Union, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others in the Sunni bloc in the Arab world. And Turkey, which is now the base for the anti-Assad forces, channeling help to them. Turkeys Islamist government plays a crucial role in Syria, like Pakistan in the 1980s during Americas proxy war in Afghanistan. In Washington, an American official told Reuters that the United States was collaborating with a secret command center operated by Turkey and its allies. And a few days before, the news agency reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey had established a nerve center in Adana in southern Turkey, near the Syrian border, to coordinate their activities. The place is home to Americas Incirlik air base and military and intelligence services.

The situation in Egypt is becoming explosive. The killing of 16 Egyptian border guards in the Sinai Peninsula by suspected Islamists, and violence thereafter, represent challenges on several fronts for the new president Mohamed Morsi. Israel has been quick to blame Islamic militants in Gaza, ruled by Hamas, which has close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, the party of the Egyptian president. For its part, the Brotherhood has pointed the finger at Israels secret service Mossad, claiming it is a plot to thwart Morsis presidency. These developments cast a shadow over Morsis relations with Hamas and, at the same time, increase his dependence on the Egyptian armed forces to quell the unrest, thereby undermining his authority. Murderous optimism of powerful and suicidal pessimism of victims in an oppressive environment blight the lives of many.

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Has the United States Abandoned the Rebels?

Syria

That Washington is in such a cozy alliance with forces including Islamists soon after the killing of Osama bin Laden (on Obamas personal order) is as incredible as it is consistent with follies of the past
According to NBC News a few days ago, the rebel Free Syria Army has acquired American Stinger missiles via Turkey, clearly to target Syrian government aircraft. It reminds of President Reagans decision in the mid-1980s to supply Stingers to Mujahideen groups for use against Soviet aircraft. Their use was first reported in 1987 and it soon emerged that the heat-seeking weapons were so accurate that they were hitting three out of four aircraft in Afghanistan. As I have discussed in my book Breeding Ground, some of the hundreds of Stingers were likely to have been passed on to the Taliban and their allies after the Soviet forces left Afghanistan and the last Communist government in Kabul collapsed in 1992. In recent months, American and European officials have been busy feeding information to media outlets that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the main sources of weapons to rebels in Syria through Turkey. The pattern is consistent with the long-standing Saudi policy to keep Islamists out of Saudi Arabia itself, lest they challenge the ruling family. Long-term lessons of proxy wars remain unheeded for immediate perilous gains. Reports of the Obama administration sending Stinger missiles to Syrian rebels carry the first indication that non-state players now have advanced U.S. weaponry in the Middle East. That Washington is in such a cozy alliance with forces including Islamists soon after the killing of Osama bin Laden (on Obamas personal order) is as incredible as it is consistent with follies of the past. The present will define the future again.

t the start of the Syrian uprising the Obama administration had lauded the uprising as a positive step and emphasized the need for Assad to step down. While still insisting that Assad must go, there is every indication that the United States is weary of throwing its full weight behind the rebel movement to unseat Assad and the administration is now being accused of throwing the Free Syrian Army and the rebels under a bus. Since the onset of the Arab Spring, with Syrians clamouring for democracy and democratic institutions in the region, and eventually taking up arms against the Assad regime, the nearly 17month-old uprising against the Assad government has turned into an all-out conflict with no end in sight. As the US support behind revolutions in North Africa proved very decisive, particularly in Libya, the Syrian rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assads government were initially optimistic that the United States would intervene. Unfortunately, as Syrias macabre mayhem continues on an everescalating scale, anti-American sentiments are consolidating, in ways that could have serious consequences for Syria as well as the region particularly in a post-Assad Syria. Although high ranking defections like that of Syrias now former prime minister have boosted their morale, the rebels fighting Assads forces will likely feel betrayed by the United States if they feel they have been abandoned. All we get is words, said Yasser Abu Ali, a spokesman for one of the Free Syrian Army battalions in the town of al-Bab, which lies 30 miles northeast of Aleppo Syrians joining the Arab Spring movement to witness Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans vote in national elections, choose new leaders and embark, however messily, on democratic transitions, witness their own movement turn into a bloody civil war. Although the rebels specifically do not want American boots on ground, to help turn the fighting in their favour, a no-fly zone would prevent Assad from using his helicopter gunships.

By Sudhanshu Tripathi

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If and when the Assad regime falls, as the rebels assume it eventually will, Syrians will not forget that their pleas for help went

unanswered from the international community. America will pay a price for thisAmerica is going to lose the friendship of Syrians, and no one will trust them anymore. Already we dont trust them at all, a Syrian rebel spokesman said recently. Further, there are shortcomings regarding American aid to the Syrian rebels. The US is under tremendous pressure from Russia and China not to intervene militarily as it potentially will not only be counter-productive but also have a disastrous affect on any hopes for an actual negotiated peace agreement between the rebels and the Assad regime. Therefore, perhaps, a debate is raging within the Obama administration over whether it is prudent to step up support for the rebels now any efforts by the United Nations to find a path forward have failed. President Obama has recently signed off on sanctioning nonlethal aid to the opposition, including communication and satellite equipment. For some time, the State Department has been reaching out to Assads opponents inside Syria with a view to identifying potential allies and recipients of assistance. The American allies in the region including Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also extended some financial help to the rebels for the purchase of small arms and ammunition. Turkey, a NATO member, is also facilitating rebel movements across its 550-mile border with Syria, including, according to some Syrian officials, the transfer of arms. Whatever the extent of the US assistance, it will be deemed small-scale, intermittent, and insufficient to the requirements of an expanding battlefield that now covers virtually all corners of the country and now includes the use of air power by the government. In fact, the declining American assistance, if it really is according to the Syrian rebels, does pose a problem for the United States. While undoubtedly helpful to a certain extent, it is merely prolonging the inevitable defeat of the Syrian rebels.

contradiction in terms. Stock standard conservatives should see them as insurance against those nasties they would like to keep off the

August 1st - 15th

streets and out of their homes. An indigent under caste might be money for jam for a state keen to keep costs down and a serf class simmering away, but it encourages revolt and decay. Taxes and entitlements keep the society civil at least in part. No matter the Ryan agenda is one of ideological delusion. Romney and Ryan share a conviction that our future will be brighter if we simply pass even bigger tax cuts for the wealthy, dramatically shift health care costs from Medicare to seniors, and walk away from our national commitments to education, research and development, and new energy technology. This is unnecessarily wordy, but it comes from an email drafted by senior Obama strategist David Axelrod, quoted in Politico. That is the Romney-Ryan compote, the bitter dish to be served to the American public. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, another bright spark of the GOP lunatic set, decided to endorse Ryan as an outstanding choice as our countrys next vice president, and todays announcement demonstrates Governor Romneys commitment to returning fiscal sanity back to Washington, D.C. The selection is astonishingly insular, even by GOP standards. Many will profess ignorance of his credentials, and familiarity is bound to breed contempt. Indeed, President George H.W. Bushs former speech writer Curt Smith went so far as to claimhow stunningly unimpressed he was with the candidate. In a year which the economy is terrible, and the election should be about Barack Obama, Romney has made the election a referendum on the Ryan budget. Sanity is not a word that dovetails well with Santorum-speak, and Ryans selection may not, on its own accord, be moderate enough. Some states might well be conservative and be in the GOP constellation, but Ryan may well be a step too far. Local Republican candidates risk finding their hands tied. Chris Cilizza in The Washington Post considered it a boon for the Democrats, and caught them salivating at the prospect of Ryans presence on the Romney ticket. By putting Ryan on the ticket, Romney has handed House and Senate Democrats a golden opportunity to make down-ballot races a referendum on his budget proposal. Jonathan Martin, Jake Sherman and Maggie Haberman in Politico pick up on the same theme of division in Republican ranks. Ryan is strong stuff, heavy liquor for the electorate. He is strong even for Romney, who has not been open about embracing Medicare cuts. Having the Ryan bull in the china shop is, however, a different proposition. It certainly signals what Romney has in mind and there are those even on the Right who will not like it. Parallels are emerging such as Ronald Reagans choice of Jack Kemp in 1980, in which supply-side economics reigned supreme. The Ryan selection, whether it does pay dividends to Romneys race, will at least show the GOPs stance for the election. Ryan is an ideologue, a creature of Capitol Hill. The axes are being wielded, and welfare is set for the chop. 14

Romneys Running Mate

Paul Ryan and the GOP By Binoy Kampmark

e started with that characteristic bumble, the clumsiness that some might regard as charming. This time, it was the remark about welcoming the next President of the United States to the podium. No, it wasnt Mitt Romney about himself, but U.S. Rep Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House GOP budget wonk and deeply suspicious about giving anybody but millionaires a break. Vice Presidents have a habit of being mere appendages of the US political system, odd impedimenta of the White House. Their silence is often golden before an active president, and when they are engaged it is, as ever, only likely to cause more harm than good. Ryan has barely gotten a foot into the nomination, and we are already seeing the potential strips that may well be taken off the GOP in the fall. Ryans fiscal plans are as unoriginal as any that involve incisions, cuts, hacking and gutting. Entitlement programs is something of a

International Policy Digest

Volume I Issue IV

orthern Mali promises to be the graveyard of scores of innocent people if African countries dont collectively challenge Western influence in the region. Mali is fast becoming the Afghanistan of Africa. The tragic reality is that Mali a large but sparsely populated country, with around 15.5 million inhabitants was until a few months ago paraded as a model of stability and fledgling democracy in west Africa. What happened to make it a hotbed for terrorism, ethnic cleansing and a civil war which could destabilize the entire region? On March 22 US-trained army captain Amadou Sanogo led a coup against the now-exiled president Amadou Toumani Toure, accusing him of not doing enough to challenge separatist threats in the countrys north. There was widespread condemnation of Sanogos coup, though the US was more forgiving than African media, most of which saw the takeover as a violent end to two decades of democratization. USowned news outlets claimed the coup was a surprise to Sanogo himself and even termed it accidental, an inane assessment that flies in the face of the evidence.

By Ramzy Baroud

Whatever Sanogos motives the coup did nothing to halt the separatists quite the opposite. The Tuaregs National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) used the political vacuum to declare independence in the north just two weeks later. The declaration followed a succession of quick military victories which included the capture of Gao and other major towns. These developments emboldened Islamist and other militant groups to seize cities across the country. A power struggle soon erupted, in which the Islamist Ansar Dine (protectors of the faith)

15

gained the upper hand, ousting the MNLA from a number of areas including the historic city of Timbuktu. These militants alleged that the Islamic history of the city was not consistent with their interpretation of the religion and immediately set about dismantling buildings, burning Islamic manuscripts and essentially destroying a Unesco world heritage site. Another group soon moved in, thickening the plot. Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (Aqim) has been used by Washington to rationalize the establishment of the United States Africa Command (Africom), set up in 2008 with a brief covering the whole continent with the exception of Egypt. The US State Department claims that Africom will play a supportive role as Africans build democratic

institutions and establish good governance across the continent. It doesnt explain how this process will be helped by Africoms

own Special Operations Command. Media leaks and authoritative analysts have been linking Africom to the mess in Mali. The security vacuum in this strategically located country could be the exact opening the US has been seeking to establish a lasting military presence in Africa. This, of course, is part and parcel of the USs recent reassessment of its military priorities across the world.

that it was Western intervention in Libya last year that has saturated a poor region with a massive quantity of weapons that are now being

August 1st - 15th

Not only did Africom have a notable presence in Mali providing several training tours to Sanogo himself its head General Carter Ham is now talking the talk we have heard so often in other conflict zones. We the international community, the Malian government missed an opportunity to deal with Aqim when it was weak. Now the situation is much more difficult and it will take greater effort by the international community and certainly by a new Malian government, he told reporters in Senegal just last week. The nature of this great effort is unknown, but both the US and France the former colonial power which still has great influence and massive economic interests in Mali have floated military options. Knowing that Western interventions often achieve the opposite of their declared purpose some west African countries have been scrambling to prevent potentially grim scenarios. On July 5 the UN security council endorsed the efforts of west African countries to end the unrest and despite pressure didnt back military action. The African Union, which has had little success in past conflicts, looks likely to cede leadership on the issue to the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas). But its members are heavily dependent on foreign aid, and thus very susceptible to outside pressure. Despite hyped Western media coverage, al-Qaida is not the biggest concern in northern Mali. Even by General Hams estimate foreign fighters in the north number only in the dozens and perhaps the low hundreds. The real crisis is humanitarian and political. According to the UN office for the co-ordination of humanitarian affairs 420,000 people have been made refugees in a region that is harsh even on those who arent forced to flee across open deserts. But the US has already started discussions on the use of unmanned killer drones in the area. US media is fomenting fear over the situation, perhaps in preparation for a military campaign. Extremist Islamists have wrested control of a region the size of France in northern Mali and proclaimed an Islamist state, ABC news reported on July 23. Much less has been said about the causes of all this not least

Knowing that Western interventions often achieve the opposite of their declared purpose some west African countries have been scrambling to prevent potentially grim scenarios

dispersed throughout Africa. Mali is now ripe for another violent episode, the scope and nature of which are yet to be revealed. While Western powers and their regional allies are calculating their next move, hundreds of thousands of impoverished people are roaming the Sahara, seeking water in one of the worlds most unforgiving terrains. The most tragic part of the story is that Malis real hardships are only just beginning.

Arabs Spring or Turkeys Rise?

ecep Tayyip Erdogans announcement that Turkey is changing the rules of engagement regarding Syria is more than a simple escalation of rhetoric: it reveals the extent to which the Turkish foreign policy has radically changed. From Turkeys famous zero problems policy and transformative diplomacy, Turkey under the Justice and Development Party is resorting to active engagement. With the sharp deterioration of Turkish-Syrian relations, Ankara is trying to seize the opportunity of the strategic vacuum and the weakness of its Arab rival, Syria, not only to take part in shaping the future of a new Middle East, but also to enhance Ankaras influence in its historical Ottoman territory and impose itself as a regional power with global ambitions. Policymakers, analysts, and scholars, who have noticed this dramatic shift in Turkeys foreign policy, are debating on the ongoing Turkish rising with a new status of a key emerging power, its scope and its repercussions. From the very beginning of the uprising in Syria, if not from the onset of the so-called Arab Spring, Turkey has gradually hardened its stance especially towards the Assad regime. Erdogan did not hesitate to declare: Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria by posing a security risk will be regarded as a threat, and will be treated as a military target. Aware of the tectonic shifts in the geopolitics of the region, Turkish decision makers opted for a strategic shift with a clear goal and aim: achieving Turkeys dream of regional leadership. After having invested in its relationship with the Assad regime

By Naili Nabil

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International Policy Digest

for many years, Turkey has dramatically changed course. The uncertainties about upheavals in Syria and Iraq and how their power struggles and the regional power games will unfold, pushed Turkey to commit itself, in concert with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to topple the Syrian regime. Turkey has explicitly taken a number of substantive steps: Hosting important meetings of Syrian opposition parties. Establishing the so-called Syrian National Council and giving sanctuary to the Free Syrian Army and Syrian opposition in Istanbul.

appreciation for Turkeys honorable policy. Turkeys prominent rise in the region should come as no sur-

Volume I Issue IV

Arming and training Sunni rebels. Giving military and logistic support to the rebels. Contributing to efforts by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to implement United Nations resolutions. Allowing Syrian rebels to use Southeastern Turkey as a base from which to carry out armed attacks inside Syria. Playing the role of the real troublemaker by harboring foreign armed groups. Setting up a secret base with Saudi Arabia and Qatar in Adana, a city in southern Turkey about 100 km from the Syrian border to direct military aid to Syrian rebels.

prise. The United States withdrew from Iraq following a long and bloody war to build a Western style democracy in that country and it is slowly drawing down its forces in Afghanistan. A vacuum is being created and it is a natural development that Turkey would seek to fill it. Prominent statesmen and scholar, Henry Kissinger, has said Turkeys influence is growing at a time that the US is withdrawing from Iraq and AfghanistanTurkey can play a significant role. It shouldnt run across interests that the US considers imperative. The ongoing crisis in neighboring Syria is an immediate challenge to Turkeys internal stability, the neo-Ottomanism nostalgia and Turkeys aggressive foreign policy. The question is will Turkeys new foreign policy soon turn out to mere chimera?

Provisional Constitution Heightens Tensions in Somalia

Turkeys tougher stance has nothing to do with philanthropy and altruism nor is it a result of solidarity with our brothers in Syria until a new regime is in place, as Erdogan recently boasted. The real reason is to regain the status as a major regional power, animated by what observers call neo-Ottomanism and the doctrine of strategic depth which sees Turkey as a regional power, straddling Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. Erdogans ideologically driven foreign policy was highlighted when Erdogan recently said, They ask me why I care about Syria so much. My answer is simple. It is that we are the remnants of the Ottoman states, the descendants of the Seljuks, and the descendants of the Ottomans. Instrumentalism and pragmatism, which shape Turkeys new strategy and foreign policy, are not sufficient and soon the geographic and historic facts and realities will have the upper hand. Turkeys strategy entails considerable risks and it should proceed with great caution for the Obama administration and Europe have not always been steadfast allies of Turkey, despite its membership in NATO. As soon as they guarantee their interests, regarding Syria, they will quell Turkish hopes of being a key emerging economic power, as Kuseni Dlamini, a member of the South African Institute of International Affairs recently argued. Ahmet Davutoglu seems to be expressing Erdogans sentiments about the need for Turkey to act as an honest broker in the region, Id like to advise those who are criticizing us: Go to Cairo. Go to Tripoli. Go to the streets of Beirut, Tunisia, Jerusalem, and ask about Turkeys policy on Syria. They will hug you and express their

Instrumentalism and pragmatism, which shape Turkeys new strategy and foreign policy, are not sufficient and soon the geographic and historic facts and realities will have the upper hand

ince the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was created in Djibouti in 2008, the International Community (IC) has consistently tried to make political change in Somalia without a clear strategy and participation from the local population. In 2011, the IC created a Roadmap that repealed the Transitional Federal Charter and federal institutions. In May 2012, without the consent of the Somali parliament, the IC took away the responsibility of the constitutional drafting from the Independent Federal Constitution Commission (IFCC) established by Somali parliamentary act and from the Committee of Experts (CoE). In July 2012, a pre-approved mandatory Draft Provisional Constitution (DPC) has been presented to the Somali people without the right to make amendments to the draft document or to reject it outright. While the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) has overruled the proposals for amendments or postponement of DPC debate from the majority of the Somali leaders, a mysterious Technical Review Committee under the management of UN bodies and the International Development Law Organization (IDLO) which implements the Italian funded project for supporting the constitutional review process (CRP) in Somalia has been exercising the discretionary power of re-writing the DPC. The UN-led Constitution-Making Process for Somalia could be described all but legitimate, accountable, transparent, participatory, inclusive and most importantly Somali-led as claimed by the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General (SRSG) and head of the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS). Contrary to the baseless public statements of the representatives of the IC and the leaders of TFG, the post August government is another Transitional (Interim) Federal Government of four (4) years term. To secure the overwhelmingly approval of the DPC, UNPOS used corrupt tactics like issuing misleading statements on amendments, forming pressure committees, shortening debate time,

By Mohamud Uluso

17

offering economic incentives, threatening with sanctions and forcing a vote on a loaded question as an approval of the DPC. UNPOS also

announced in advance that even if National Constituent Assembly (NCA) rejects the DPC, the latter remains the law of the land. Thus, NCA members saw their restricted role on the wall and were ready to comply with it. The loaded question was, Should this draft provisional constitution be provisionally adopted to provide for a better Somalia, help reconstruct our country and set us on the right path to justice and lasting peace, pending final adoption at the referendum?

FMSs. DPC forces the worn-torn Somalia to establish unsustainable

August 1st - 15th

The provisions of DPC instigate all sorts of negative social, political, security and legal drawbacks such as social fragmentation and conflicts, secession or separation, foreign claims over Somali territory, primacy of international laws over Somalia laws, long term foreign military occupation, installation of bogus Federal Government (FG), protracted stalemate over the formation of Federal Member States (FMSs), corruption, terrorism and radicalism. Some of the factors that give rise to those negative developments are the imposition of federalism, creation of bogus FG and FMSs and litigious interpretation of the DPC provisions. Imposition of Federalism The Guide Book to DPC argues that some of reasons for the imposition of federalism have been the accommodation of an existing regional government Puntland, the accommodation of the distinct regional needs of the Somali people, and implementation of shared rule (in central government) and self-rule (in regional government). At the same time, it is admitted in the Guide Book that the creation of FMSs has proved controversial during the constitutional conferences. Nevertheless, the IC deliberately disregarded the drawbacks of federalism for Somalia expressed by a large segment of the Somali population. The majority of the Somali people have never viewed federalism as a political system of governance suitable for Somalia. Alternatively, there has been quasi-unanimous consensus on democratic system of governance with effective decentralization based on system of governance that upholds justice, transparency and accountability. Establishment of Federal Government (FG) Because of lack of general consensus on federalism, DPC creates bogus FG without capital (seat of government), identifiable federal stakeholders, shared rule, shared land and financial resources, and ability to exercise practically any national political power. FG is deprived of the constitutional legitimacy of representing Somaliland and Puntland in the international arena. All those requirements are deferred to negotiations between FG and the non-existing FMSs supposed to be created by FG not fully recognized by the existing

The interpretation of DPC articles about religion, equality, personal freedom, territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence, citizenship, federal government, FMSs and supremacy of international law over Somali law has stirred intense disagreements rather than promoting harmony and reconciliation among Somalis

parallel structures of system of governance. Due to lack of shared rule at national and local levels, territories and people under FG rule will more likely suffer exploitation, political and economic mismanagement, violence and foreign military occupation. Creation of Federal Member States (FMSs) Only two regional states claim status of FMS based on their local constitution. They are the overlapping states Somaliland and Puntland. These two FMSs retain and exercise their powers on the basis of their State Constitutions independently from the FG. Given Puntland as a model for the creation of FMS, DPC encourages the emergence of mini-states throughout Somalia, which could lead to social tension and long-term instability. DPC grants special constitutional rights to non-existing FMSs. First, each FMS enjoy independent decision making process from the FG while the latter must consult with each FMS in its decision making process in regard with federal tasks, security arrangement and foreign affairs. Second, each FMS could establish its citizenship status despite DPC says National Citizenship is indivisible. Third, existing FMSs are exempt from the financial contribution to the budget of FGs representation of all Somalis. Residents of the regions without FMS bear FGs financial burden. Fourth, each FMS independently pursues its foreign interests. Fifth, each FMS has the freedom to formulate its own land policy and establish its state police force. Sixth, FMSs are exclusively empowered to develop the status, structure and competences of local governments, and any further political and administrative decentralization deemed necessary in their own State Constitutions without consultation with FG or reference to DPC. Seventh, each FMS will have its independent judiciary system. That will introduce dual system of justices. Hierarchy between central and regional governments is reversed. Different institutions and authorities claim the right of representation of the Somali people. Amendments Contrary to the unfounded claims by the TFG leaders, the next parliament does not have the ability to amend the DPC. On paper, PDC provides two cumbersome processes for constitutional amendments. In any case, amendments to DPC require 2/3 of the members of a non-existing Upper House of FP (representing the

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FMSs). This situation prohibits any type of amendment to DPC at least

during the FG term. Litigious Interpretation of DPC The interpretation of DPC articles about religion, equality, personal freedom, territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence, citizenship, federal government, FMSs and supremacy of international law over Somali law has stirred intense disagreements rather than promoting harmony and reconciliation among Somalis. Moreover, on one hand, the provisions of DPC encourage conflicts between Somaliland and Puntland for land dispute, while on other hand de-legitimize their existence. Somalia has been subjected to a constitution making process never seen in the recent history. The demand of the Somali people for ownership of the process has been treated with contempt. The DPC is imposed solution on Somalia with intimidation and corruption. In the absence of political accord among concerned citizens and functional government, especially justice and security system throughout the country, the provisions of unlimited freedoms, economic and social entitlements and gender agenda are ineffectual. Most probably, it will instigate challenges that could halt or delay the march towards peace, stability and progress in Somalia.

Page 18 - In this photo of Wednesday July 25, 2012, Somalia's constituency assembly members hold up copies of the proposed new constitution during the beginning of a nine-day meeting on Wednesday to examine, debate and vote on the proposed new constitution, in Mogadishu, Somalia. Somali leaders are debating a new constitution that protects the right to abortion to save the life of the mother and bans the circumcision of girls. (AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh) from boston.com

Volume I Issue IV

Cover - ECB Faces Concern Over Health of Banks - Photo Source: room4truth Page 3 - From left to right: Mario Monti, Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank Angela Merkel, Federal Chancellor of Germany. Photo source: European Council Page 7 - Indias goal is to open transit hubs via Bangladesh. Flickr Page 9 - Miners in Mozambique. Flickr Page 11 - from Pakalert Press Page 12 - President Barack Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office. Pictured, from left, are: Chris Mizelle, Director for Russia and Central Asia, NSS National Security Advisor Tom Donilon Chief of Staff Jack Lew and Denis McDonough, Deputy National Security Advisor. Official White House Photo by Pete Souza Page 15 - Sidiki Lamine Sow the Permanent Representative of Mali during the 20th session of the Human Rights Council. 6 July 2012. Photo by Jean-Marc Ferr Page 16 - Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister of Turkey, addresses the Security Council Summit. Eskinder Debebe/UN Photo

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