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Oxiteno
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South America Macro Economics Overview of the Petrochemical Industry in South America
Shale Gas Impact on South America
Conclusions
Oxiteno
US$ million
Year
Product Line
Non-Ionics
Ethanolamines
SURFACTANTS
Ethylene Glycols
PETROCHEMICALS
Flexible Foams
Population (million)
Brazil Argentina Venezuela Colombia Chile Per Ecuador Uruguay Bolivia Paraguay Region
Source: IHS World Bank
196.4 41.5 28.3 47.3 17.2 29.4 14.5 3.3 10.3 6.7 394.9
12,380 10,360 11,900 7,080 13,700 5,950 4,480 14,500 2,230 3,250 10,400
South America
POPULATION: 395 MILLION (5.6% OF WORLD POPULATION) GDP CURRENT PRICES (2011): US$ 4.1 TRILLION (5.9% OF WORLD GDP)
GDP growth in South America has been above the World average , in contrast to USA, EU and Japan.
4.2
4.3 2.8
(2.5)
(5.0) (7.5) 2006 2007 2008 South America China World
Source: World Bank, IHS, Intellichem
2009 USA
2010 Europe
2011 Japan
+17
Million people
+58
Million people
-17
Million people
-15.7
-20.6
Colombia Venezuela
-23.2
2005
Camacari /BA 1280 Duque de Caxias /RJ 520 Santo Andre/SP 700
Ethane/Propane base Naphtha/Refinery Gas base Ethanol base
Source: QuiMax
Ethylene Capacity in Latin America (000 -tons) Tons/Yr) Ethylene Capacity in South America (000
Colombia
Argentina
Ethane/Propane base Naphtha/Refinery Gas base
Ethylene Capacity in Latin America (000 -tons) Tons/Yr) Ethylene Capacity in South America (000
Venezuela
Chile Concepcion : 50
Venezuela
12%
Argentina
14%
Brazil
71%
Source: Intellichem
1,929
2,079
Brazil Argentina
(7,000)
Argentina YPF evaluating expansion of refinery at La Plata. BP and YPF currently evaluating Shale Gas and Shale Oil. Without raw materials there is no expansion in Argentina. Brazil Pre-salt, the major feedstock development in Brazil, will supply natural gas liquids as raw material for additional olefins units. COMPERJ project NOW considering NGLs for new petrochemical site. Petroquimica Suape new 700,000 tons/yr unit of PTA and 450,000 tons/yr PET to start production 2012/2013.
Additional ethanol-based olefins and derivatives expected in 2016 (Dow Mitsui). Styrenics (Styrene Monomer and ABS) expansions and PVC expansions planned.
Colombia Ecopetrol working on refinery expansions at Cartagena and Barrancabermeja. Additional naphthas could feed crackers and increase petrochemical production in Colombia. Peru Evaluating expansions based on natural gas resources. No completion time. Healthy economy and demand is driving force for local petrochemical production. Venezuela PDVSA evaluating naphtha supply for petrochemicals. Naphtha currently exported will be enough to produce 800,000 tons per year ethylene. New 15,000 ton per year butene-1 unit under construction to come on-stream late 2012. Production capacity for Urea and Ammonia increasing in Moron.
South America
Regions Canada /Mexico Europe USA
4,569
Risked Gas In-Place (TCF) 3,856 2,587 1,928
1,225
Technically Recoverable Gas (TCF) 1,069 624 482
Overall LPG exports are now higher than imports. Surplus is exported. Latin America and Europe have been the preferred markets for incremental exports. U.S. exports should displace other suppliers in these regions
2008 2007
2006
2005
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
South America
Source: IHS Chemical
World
South America
Shale Gas Projects and Perspectives WORLD GDP)
Argentina, with largest reserves, leading the efforts to develop commercial projects. YPF and BP investing in early exploration. YPF in Argentina has reported some findings in the Vaca Muerta formation of the Neuquen Basin. However, regulatory environment not fully conducive to foreign investment. Brazil, now focused on conventional sources, but is also looking into Shale oil/gas exploration. In Chile, shale gas could help duplicate the energy potential in the next ten years. The biggest challenges are the high capital investment required and the regulatory environment to attract investments.
Conclusions
South America
South America
THANK YOU
Joao.parolin@oxiteno.com