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This is a follow up of the companion article on Teen Pregnancy Rates and is aimed at clarifying any deficiencies in the earlier presentation. The fundamental reason why the ratio y/x cannot be used to predict a rate of change (e.g., the number of pregnancies, y) is discussed here, see http://www.scribd.com/doc/102000311/ALittle-Known-Mathematical-Property-of-a-Straight-Line-Strange-but-true-there-isone
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Table of Contents
No. 1. 2. 3. Topic Summary Introduction US teen pregnancy data analysis 3.1 Testing for Type I Behavior (1972-1980) 3.2 An INVERSE Type I Behavior (1980-1987) 3.3 Type III Behavior (1990-2008) Brief discussion Appendix II: Bibliography of related articles Page No. 3 4 5 8 11 16 20 24
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1. Summary
It has not been widely appreciated that the ratio y/x is NOT a constant, even on a PERFECT straight line, if the straight line does NOT pass through the origin. Hence, if a simple linear law, y = hx + c, with a nonzero intercept c, describes the relationship between the variables x and y of interest to us (e.g., teen female population x and number of teen pregnancies y, in the problem to be discussed here), the ratio y/x = m = h + (c/x) can either increase or decrease as x increases depending on the numerical values of the constants h and c. This gives rise to three types of linear laws, which may be referred to as Type I (h > 0, c < 0, y/x increases with increasing x), Type II (h > 0, c > 0, y/x decreases with increasing x), and Type III behavior (h < 0, c > 0, y/x decreases with increasing x). All the three types of behavior (and their inverses, which refers to the case of decreasing x) are indeed observed when we analyze a variety of problems where huge volumes of (x, y) data are being compiled and reported on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. More importantly, this fundamental property of a straight line means that the ratio y/x is NOT the same as a rate. The true measure of the rate of change is the slope h and y/x = m = h if and only if the intercept c is zero, which is rarely the case in most problems we must deal with (outside, perhaps, physics and chemistry) in the real world. The application of these ideas to the teenage pregnancy problem is discussed here. We observe Type I behavior and its inverse (1972-1990) and also Type III behavior (1990-2008). Type I behavior and its inverse imply a natural increase, or decrease, in the number of pregnancies with increase, or decrease, of the female population. The Type III behavior, observed in more recent years, however, signifies an unnatural decrease in pregnancies with increasing female teen population. This provides, perhaps, the clearest empirical evidence of the effectiveness of social policies aimed at reduced teen pregnancies. However, the appearance of Type I behavior, and its inverse, must also be taken into account and their effect analyzed and understood more carefully, vis--vis the recent favorable trends and dramatic reductions in the teen pregnancy rate.
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2. Introduction
The difference between the rate and the ratio has been discussed in a recent article, see Ref. [1]. Quite surprisingly, it has not been generally recognized that the ratio y/x is not a constant and will keep on increasing or decreasing, even on a perfect straight line, depending on the numerical values of h and c in the linear law y = hx + c which is often seen to be the law relating two variables x and y of interest, see link given below. 1. http://www.scribd.com/doc/102000311/A-Little-Known-MathematicalProperty-of-a-Straight-Line-Strange-but-true-there-is-one Published August 4, 2012. 2. http://www.scribd.com/doc/101828233/The-US-Teenage-Pregnancy-Rates-1 Published August 2, 2012. We usually encounter three types straight line relationships when we analyze the large volumes of x and y data, such as we find in Table 1, being compiled and reported, on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis to describe a variety of problems of interest to us. Table 1: Selected values of the US teenage (ages 15-19) pregnancy data Year 2008 1990 1980 1972 Female Population, x 10,805,000 8,656,000 10,381,000 9,988,000 Total pregnancies, y 733,010 1,012,260 1,151,850 949,630 Ratio y/x 0.06784 0.11694 0.11096 0.09508 Pregnancy rate 1000(y/x) 67.84 116.94 110.96 95.08
If our empirical observations on x and y (Table 1 for example) reveal a simple linear law y = hx +c, it follows that the ratio y/x = m = h + (c/x) can either increase or decrease as x increases giving rise to the three types of behavior given below. Type I (slope h > 0 and intercept c < 0), increasing y/x as x increases Type II (slope h > 0, intercept c > 0), decreasing y/x as x increases Type III (slop h < 0, intercept c > 0), decreasing y/x as x increases
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This important, but little known, mathematical property of a straight line obviously has a number of implications which we must pay attention when we use chose to use ratios to describe a rate. Perhaps, the most important of all is that the ratio y/x h as x , i.e., the slope h of the straight line is the maximum (Type I) or the minimum (Type II and Type III) value of the ratio y/x as the independent variable x (or the stimulus function) increases and the dependent variable y (or response function) either increases or decreases. Hence, before we can draw firm conclusions, based entirely on the behavior of the ratio y/x, often referred to as the rate, we must also understand the nature of the underlying x-y relationship. The true rate of change of y as x increases or decreases (e.g., pregnancies as population increases, or profits as revenues increase, and so on) can be estimated only by using the slope h. The ratio y/x = m = h if and only if the intercept c = 0 and the straight line passes through the origin (0, 0) of the x-y graph. Notice that the female population went up between 1972 and 1980 and also between 1990 and 2008 but decreased between 1980 and 1990. However, the number of pregnancies y went up between 1972 and 1980 but went down between 1990 and 2008. With this background, we will now take a second look at the US teenage pregnancy problem, which has already been discussed in some detail in Ref.[2] above. The purpose here is to clarify the difference between the rate and the ratio within the context of the important and fundamental mathematical property of a straight line as just discussed.
Data source: http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/USTPtrends08.pdf US Teen Pregnancies Trends since 1972; Table 2.1 Ages 15-19
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As an example, and with reference to Table 1, in 2008, the latest year for which figures are available, the female population x, in the 15-19 age group, was 10,805,000 and the corresponding total number of pregnancies y was 733,010. Hence, the ratio y/x = 0.06784. Multiplying by this by 1000 gives the rate per 1000 which is 67.84. This is the lowest rate since the peal observed in 1990 when the pregnancy rate was 116.94 per 1000; see also the graph in Figure 1. This illustrates how this pregnancy rate has been decreasing after reaching its peak in 1990. There is also a smaller, less pronounced peak in 1980.
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rate with increasing female population, x. Type II and Type III behaviors will lead to a decreasing pregnancy rate with increasing female population x. Hence, let us test the teen pregnancy data to see if we indeed observe this Type I behavior.
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The numerical values of h and c were deduced using the (x, y) pairs for 1972 and 1980. This yields y = 0.515x 4190 = 0.515 (x 8142) with the slope h = 0.515 with the intercept c = -4190. This is Type I behavior since h > 0 and c < 0. It provides an upper bound to the data. The Type I equation also implies that there is a cut-off or a critical value of x = x0 = - c/h, below which the number of pregnancies y = 0. How do we justify this choice of h and c?
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higher the population, the higher is the total number of pregnancies and the higher the pregnancy rate, y/x. This is further confirmed by the plots prepared in Figures 3 and 4. Changes in the pregnancy rate must, therefore, be viewed not only within the context of social policies but also within the context of natural laws such as the corresponding changes (increase or decrease) in the size of the female population and how this affects the pregnancy rate. It should hardly be surprising if we find that an increase in the female population is accompanied by an increase in the total pregnancies (Figure 2) or that an increase in the total pregnancies (Figure 3) and the female population (Figure 4) are accompanied by an increasing in the pregnancy rate or vice versa.
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females) should actually lead to a decreasing pregnancy rate even with increasing female population. Here we see the opposite trend, albeit for a very brief period.
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(y2 y1) = (974,580 1,151,850) = -177,270. Since both x and y are negative, the slope of the line joining these two points on the x-y graph, h = y/x = 177,270/ (-1242) = 0.143 > 0, is positive. Notice the PERFECT linearity observed here. The decreasing pregnancy rate between 1980 and 1987 is thus due to the fact both the population and the number of pregnancies decreased simultaneously. Although one usually associates a Type I trend with increasing x and y values, here we witness a Type I trend with decreasing x and y values. The Type I slope observed is much smaller than the earlier slopes and the cut-off value x0 = - c/h = 2311 is also greatly reduced.
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In other words, it appears that a Type I behavior can result in either increasing or decreasing pregnancy rates. The trend in Figure 5, for 1980 to 1987 might be called an INVERSE Type I. When x and y increase together, the pregnancy rates increase. Likewise, when x and y decrease together, maintaining a positive slope h, the pregnancy rates decrease. A composite plot revealing both these up and down movements along the two Type I lines is presented in Figure 6.
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commitment to abstinence, availability of contraception, and so on). When this critical number x0 is exceeded, it appears that the total number of teen pregnancies simply increases a fixed rate h = y/x as the female population increases. The higher the teen female population x, the higher is the number of teen pregnancies y, and vice versa. There is simply an up and down movement along the Type I lines. This is also confirmed by the relationship between the female population x (the independent variable, of the stimulus function) and the pregnancy rate y/x (the dependent variable, or the response function), as seen in Figure 7, and the resulting increase or decrease in total pregnancies, as seen in Figure 8 for the time period (1980-1987) being studied here.
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Teen pregnancy rate, 1000(y/x) Figure 9: The x-y pregnancy diagram for 1987-1990 showing an unnatural increase in total pregnancies with decreasing population and therefore an increase in the pregnancy rate. (This is the INVERSE Type III relation, i.e., increasing y with decreasing x, as opposed to the normal Type III behavior seen in Figure 10.) The brief period of increasing pregnancy rates between 1987 and 1990 is analyzed in Figure 9. A decrease in the population, as we seen earlier, should result in a natural decrease in the total pregnancies. Instead we see an unnatural increase
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in the total pregnancies y with decreasing female population (Figure 9a). The increase in the pregnancies, coupled with the decreasing population, resulted in the increasing pregnancy rates (Figure 9b).
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equation, y = -0.061x + 1441, deduced from the 1992 and 1998 data, was used in the earlier article to describe the same trend.) The total pregnancies decreased at an even higher rate after 1999 and have increased slightly since 2005 but are still lower than the one million plus in 1990.
The pregnancy rate is plotted, for the first time in the discussion so far, as a dependent variable on the y-axis of the graph in Figure 11 since it is clearly influenced by factors other than natural laws. This is, perhaps, the clearest empirical evidence for the effectiveness of various social policies that are aimed at reducing teen pregnancies (NOT pregnancy rate, y/x, but absolute number of pregnancies, y!)
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4. Brief Discussion
The number of teen pregnancies y is shown here to be related to the size of the female population x by the simple linear law, y = hx + c, where the constants h and c can be readily deduced from the empirical observations on x and y. Both Type I and Type III behavior, and their inverses, are observed, see summary in Table 3. Of these, only the Type III behavior implies an unnatural decrease in the number of teen pregnancies even as the teen female population has increased, especially since the peak in the pregnancy rate observed in 1990. Table 3: Summary of Observed Trends with Brief Comments Figure No. Trend Comment
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A natural law; pregnancies increase with increasing population. Minimizes, if note negates the effect of socio-political policies. Natural law; pregnancies are decreasing, a desirable effect but this may be primarily due to decreasing population. Social policies may NOT be a dominant factor. Unnatural DECREASE in pregnancies with increasing population; desirable effect and suggests social and political factors may be a significant contributing factor. Unnatural INCREASE in pregnancies with decreasing population; implies ineffectiveness of socio-political factors.
We also observe both up and down movements along the straight line segments with a positive slope h (with a negative intercept c on the y-axis) and also along straight lines with a negative slope h (with a positive intercept c on the y-axis). In three of the four scenarios highlighted here, by considering different time periods,
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the decrease (or increase) in the pregnancy rates shows an important population size effect which cannot be overlooked, see also comments in Table 1. A synthesis of the two dominant trends, the INVERSE Type I and the Normal Type III, both yielding a decreasing pregnancy rate, with decreasing female population, is presented in Figure 12. The apparently chaotic movement on the x-y pregnancy diagram (see Figure 2 in the companion article) may be seen as a transition between these two dominant trends, both yielding a decreasing teen pregnancy rate, y/x.
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Both liberal social policies (e.g., sex education, ready availability of contraceptives and condoms), as well as conservative policies (teaching abstinence as opposed to
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accepting sexual activity as a fact of teenage life and promoting instead the use of birth control methods by teens), no doubt, play a role since we observe both up and down movements with positive and negative slopes h. Nonetheless, the size effect may also be a far more important overlooked effect. Specifically, the two UNNATURAL trends highlighted in Table 3, viz., increasing pregnancies with decreasing population (INVERSE Type III) and decreasing pregnancies with increasing population (normal Type III) need more careful investigation. Perhaps, the most important finding of the analysis presented here might be that aggressive social policies (either liberal or conservative) may NOT be as effective as is widely believed. The natural effect of the population size in determining the total teenage pregnancies must also be taken into account. The welcome and dramatic decrease in pregnancy levels witnessed in recent years might just be the reflection of a general (and unavoidable) increase in awareness about these topics among the teenage population, akin to other technological advances that have made even young kids computer savvy, internet proficient, and skilled in the use many modern devices (mobile phones, GPS) and media tools that were unheard of two or three decades ago. Finally, based on studies of similar problems where the Type I, Type II, and Type III linear laws are observed, Type III behavior is usually unsustainable and cannot continue indefinitely since extrapolations, both forward and backward, based on the Type III equation yield unreasonable results, see discussion in the article A Little Known Mathematical Property of a Straight Line. In the profits-revenues problem, sustained Type III behavior implies that the company reports increasing revenues but decreasing profits and decreasing profit margins. This is obviously an untenable situation and usually leads to a bankruptcy (General Motors), merger (Air Tran with Southwest Airlines), or the more recent innovative scenario that is now emerging with Best Buy- a proposed takeover by the founder (who wants to buy back the entire company and make it private; the founder was also the CEO and stepped down only recently). Best Buy can also be shown to reveal a Type III behavior.
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Thus, the situation we are observing with the US teen pregnancy rates MAY ALSO turn out to be similarly UNTENABLE. It is certainly highly unnatural to witness such a HUGE decrease in the absolute number of teen pregnancies with increasing teen population. If the general analogies invoked here hold water, a crisis may be looming and medical professionals and sociologists and, of course, parents with teenagers, should take heed. Even something as outrageous as teenage male impotency issues deserves our attention. Why is the teen pregnancy rate going down, year-after-year, and the absolute number of pregnancies going down (by 198, 390 from 1992 to 2008) when the teen female population is growing (by nearly 2.5 million since 1992)? It would be crazy to think that all of this is due to some new found morality or the widespread practice of abstinence, or the magical benefits of sex education. When the female population increases, the number of pregnancies must go up! That is the natural law. Everything else is unnatural, especially the unimaginable and sustained plunge in the teen pregnancies since 1990. Medical professionals are urged to study the implications of the three VERY BASIC x-y graphs (click here) presented in Figures 7 to 9 of the companion article, which is simply a graphical representation of the data referenced in Dr. Sanghavis Slate magazine article (from Guttmacher Institute). This is nothing more than a BOLD suggestion being offered by a non-medical professional whose only qualification, if any, is an entire career spent on leading R & D problems, including advanced space materials research. It is always the unusual that is worthy of our attention and usually leads to new insights upon careful investigation.
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5. Appendix I: Bibliography
Related Internet articles posted at this website Since the Facebook IPO on May 18, 2012
1. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95906902/Simple-Mathematical-Laws-GovernCorporate-Financial-Behavior-A-Brief-Compilation-of-Profits-RevenuesData Current article with all others above cited for completeness, Published June 4, 2012 with several revisions incorporating more examples. 2. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94647467/Three-Types-of-Companies-FromQuantum-Physics-to-Economics Basic discussion of three types of companies, Published May 24, 2012. Examples of Google, Facebook, ExxonMobil, Best Buy, Ford, Universal Insurance Holdings 3. http://www.scribd.com/doc/96228131/The-Perfect-Apple-How-it-can-bedestroyed Detailed discussion of Apple Inc. data. Published June 7, 2012. 4. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95140101/Ford-Motor-Company-Data-RevealsMount-Profit Ford Motor Company graph illustrating pronounced maximum point, Published May 29, 2012. 5. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95329905/Planck-s-Blackbody-Radiation-LawRederived-for-more-General-Case Generalization of Plancks law, Published May 30, 2012. 6. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94325593/The-Future-of-Facebook-I Facebook and Google data are compared here. Published May 21, 2012. 7. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94103265/The-FaceBook-Future Published May 19, 2012 (the day after IPO launch on Friday May 18, 2012). 8. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95728457/What-is-Entropy Discussion of the meaning of entropy (using example given by Boltzmann in 1877, later also used by Planck to develop quantum physics in 1900). The example here shows the concepts of entropy S and energy U (and the derivative T = dU/dS) can be extended beyond physics with energy = money, or any property of interest. Published June 3, 2012.
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9. The Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 14, 2012 (to be published). 10.The Air Tran Story: An Important Link to the Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 27, 2012 (to be published). 11.Annies Inc. A Single-Product Company Analyzed using a New Methodology, http://www.scribd.com/doc/98652561/Annie-s-Inc-A-SingleProduct-Company-Analyzed-Using-a-New-Methodology Published June 29, 2012 12.Google Inc. A Lovable One-Trick Pony Another Single-product Company Analyzed using the New Methodology. http://www.scribd.com/doc/98825141/Google-A-Lovable-One-Trick-PonyAnother-Single-Product-Company-Analyzed-Using-the-New-Methodology, Published July 1, 2012. 13.GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. Analysis of Recent Financial Data, Completed on July 4, 2012. (To be published). 14.Disappearing Brands: Research in Motion Limited. An Interesting type of Maximum Point on the Profits-Revenues Graph http://www.scribd.com/doc/99181402/Research-in-Motion-RIM-Limited-WillDisappear-in-2013 Published July 5, 2012. 15.Kia Motor Company: A Disappearing Brand http://www.scribd.com/doc/99333764/Kia-Motor-Company-A-DisppearingBrand, Published July 6, 2012. 16.The Perfect Apple-II: Taking A Second Bite: A Simple Methodology for Revenues Predictions (Completed July 8, 2012, To be Published) http://www.scribd.com/doc/101503988/The-Perfect-Apple-II, Published July 30, 2012. 17.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101062823/A-Fresh-Look-at-Microsoft-After-itsHistoric-Quarterly-Loss Microsoft after the quarterly loss, Published July 25, 2012. 18.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101518117/A-Second-Look-at-Microsoft-After-theHistoric-Quarterly-Loss , Published July 30, 2012. ****************************************************************
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19.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100984613/Further-Empirical-Evidence-for-theUniversal-Constant-h-and-the-Economic-Work-Function-Analysis-ofHistorical-Unemployment-data-for-Japan-1953-2011 Single universal value of h for US, Canada and Japan in the unemployment law y = hx + c, Published July 24, 2012. 20.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100939758/An-Economy-Under-StressPreliminary-Analysis-of-Historical-Unemployment-Data-for-Japan, Published July 24, 2012. 21.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100910302/Further-Evidence-for-a-UniversalConstant-h-and-the-Economic-Work-Function-Analysis-of-US-1941-2011-andCanadian-1976-2011-Unemployment-Data Published July 24, 2012. 22.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100720086/A-Second-Look-at-Australian-2012Unemployment-Data, Published July 22, 2012. 23.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100500017/A-First-Look-at-AustralianUnemployment-Statistics-A-New-Methodology-for-Analyzing-UnemploymentData , Published July 19, 2012. 24.http://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-RatesObama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levels , Published July 12, 2012. 25.http://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-Whathappened-in-the-Obama-years , Published July 10, 2012. **************************************************************** 26.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101828233/The-US-Teenage-Pregnancy-Rates-1 Published August 2, 2012. 27.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/Does-Speed-Kill-Forgotten-USHighway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s Published August 4, 2012. 28.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101983375/Effect-of-Speed-Limits-on-FatalitiesTexas-Proofing-of-Vehciles Published August 4, 2012. 29.http://www.scribd.com/doc/102000311/A-Little-Known-MathematicalProperty-of-a-Straight-Line-Strange-but-true-there-is-one Published August 4, 2012.
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Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law, as we see here, and was deduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton.
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