Program and Complex Project Management - Free

In the beginning was THE PLAN. And then came The Assumptions.
And The Plan was without substance. And The Assumptions were without form. And darkness was upon the face of the Workers. And they spoke among themselves, saying, 'It is a crock of s--t, it stinks.' And the workers went unto their Supervisors, and said, 'It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odour thereof.' And the Supervisors went unto their Managers, saying 'It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong, such that none may abide it.' And the Managers went unto their Directors, saying, 'It is a vessel of fertiliser, and none may abide its strength.' And the Directors spoke among themselves saying one to another, 'It contains that which aids plant growth, and it is very strong.' And the Directors went to the Vice-Presidents, saying unto them, 'It promotes growth, and it is very powerful.' And the Vice-Presidents went to the President, saying unto him, 'This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigour of the company, with powerful effects.' And the President looked upon The Plan, and saw that it was good. And The Plan became policy. And that is how S--t happens.
Slip: Being first at the bar Float: Remaining Beer kitty Milestone: Paul buys a round
Results are promising : Turned power on and no smoke detected -- this time... Elements will be phased in Good, gradually as butperhaps a the software little more matures: detail here ? It's late!
Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D, P2
Logical Model Ltd 2010
A wo "Exc b ma use elow Sh reduced me , 3 0 f e The m e de altitu balloon n in a ho mee an re et a b wa s de a t air t her can yo scende n e ar p o lost nd u d an h one ve alkali lied: "Yo our a help? I p a bit mo spotted . She "You of t h u ar des e a re ro go, b e r em e m us r ut I d mised a and sh man t be nant t scrub h in a hot ou on't f a bio air b abita p o pu know riend I w ted logis al t latio "We o t" s a whe ns a , 2.7 mil loon hov ll," a re I a uld id th es w nd s ns w e ba m. paw est o ering ap I hav ered t lloon ni n g p f he b ist. " e to grou the Col roximat alloo I am idea e o n ds nist, ," re wh a of th rado Ri ly plied "e t ve e raz t he m Fran to make verythin The or b a r kly, man an. " you'v of your g you to s uc k c k How in ld er. "I am below re e no did y said t bee formatio me is te spon , re ou k th e m n, a n ? p d c n mu now DO t , an, " lied the ed: "Yo d the hnically ch h ? c elp s ger lo f r have you don balloon u must b o far act is I a orrect, b ana unate nage ist, " 't kn ri M . u m st b u t h e a pr o ow w h o t a se n t o w ect a fort ct ma ... ill los t jec ow d he roj y to h t e h t. id yo t mana a P rs are a proj xcep ebod one,ave e o ir. You ere you re you bn g u oes ge om e d s, uld l thaitdea ho made a are du are or w know? er. s, e at d ana now at i ell s ot b sho prob w to kee promis e to a la here yo "Well Wh ject M one k do; th e; to t uld n hy it ebutta e to , lem. p, a n som rge qua u're goin Pro every ing to e don it sho e, or w ts in r d een Th g. Y ot b rson e fact is you exp eone th ntity of as noth s to b why y els umen . ou n e th , you ec t m at es for, has at i sons bod arg p has sive e to you t it m the es. we ame po are in wh rea ome pare onclu solv ha fro e sitio re in ide to by s pre d c e yo us er t n yo xactly b ef n ur dec ten o exc met, cov ses To to lis done and t cing a n: dis excu e the b u t s o r e we u ; t; d be ay; nvin the e; to to no o i ul om e; it'sone w omehow d o d rc en tw on don ll be d is; my fa sho fferen ll be c An een d to list to ove ult!" ; a it i y it een sha s b done; ents wh in a d s b w it sh eft as rrectly ha ha ing been argum : ne ng ut ho ll be l ing co orse. do th i o e th t e p h en if th s no ink u nd th e if the point t as w do a t d, or w t h a A e y; to see y it ha to th one to wh o s ct l mig canno t as b n d ne p nd it et bee ad do s w u quire o it; a tim ncorre done who be jus o n e d i foll n ond hav f he h thing on ould To ; to e id not i sec one bee ers s uld ne ho d wo y that that a t has p a een d it has f the p ssor w u g do w thin ctoril and that i low has b g as rid o ucce lly: e fol To hat is as lon to get any s d fina tter th satisfa inutes y it is n er t that time ability An nd be flect 20 m ut wh ng. ffect o v isco clude s not prob ly a ; to re ight in find o it wro ing e on of to d con if it i r imp e all to o do ralis dati re s plac o it ng o to der n t in mo first le to d s tryi eeks t dem ry fou has n ct tha o ch y y e to w refle mu f in th en ab o da ree w a ver the ve nager to how msel e be ent tw lse th have e at t ma v i k c p der e nsi ne it h uld ha self s body would ld stri proje co To he do e wo e him some idea it wou that a . o h n fh had imsel d out, taken uch a cause loyees g to d t s , be emp othin t h urne i tha eam all t n t f lise rea roject elief o To e p e b th th
cts e roj lls x P Ski ple m Co and es ect mm Proj s gra r ie Se Pro
Essentially complete: It's half done. We predict... : We hope to God! Serious but not insurmountable problems. : It'll take a miracle... Basic agreement has been reached. : The @##$%%'s won't even talk to us.
to ity ot en ser ann h e s I c ge t o t et g ura no t m hi n co an e et an Gr pt th The gs I c o hid ll t e e. ki in acc hang he th dom d to y c et wis ha n m n g th e se I o t o b e ch a a n d f t h o e y g e t o a s o th lp m day y t, ep ies se a o e acc bod ecau so, h on t et I m w. the ay b d al step e fe orro m tod s. An oes I to th s tom en I' at ed o kis .. Wh s th s rve e t t ne f th ect er. eem ake nn lo ve co ha emb it s t it t 4 to e fu ca r a y b e rem y, & tha nly h! to d a u p, d o out ym me ad me le an he m ork... t he t i d elp lly b w on win sm e in at d h ea An g a r g to 28 to eon 00% y 40% ays. 1 om rid n, yin da vin ha re tr frow ack s give Tues on F a ys on to m le 5% lwa os les op pe usc arm t to a 23% rsday e m y u 42 d my elp m onda n Th H nM %o en o 2O e xt % 12 s day e dn We
n ve Se .: i ew ar e ei r n rev ho at th bee to w e t l e t e n av j ec t ce f or p e op m pe bs h pr o e. : jo sk e o tim Ta inc ular to th this reg ned at en ed ev it. loa ut fin 's d e d y bo ee ell obo t a :S t w N u gh h e t s . r . No tho ing t men swe ow t lys ire an : N t na requ ious od. ugh wan ll a v t o ho ' t Sti pre ders 've t don un we , we ut it ell at it o t w t h ou t k a b No ab thin re. to ymo an
Free Version
Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied
This is a complete training course in our project skills series! And for FREE if used for personal, individual development!! No catches everything needed is within this file If you want to use this intellectual property as a commercial offering thats fine too as long as you cut me in I dont want much !! Pre-arranged commercial use removes this notice, gives you animated slides that build procedures step-by-step, also step-by-step exercise files, instructor notes, suggested time-line for delivery and support
For non pre-arranged commercial use (IE where you charge a fee) I hereby offer you a contract to use this materials, without prior notice in a commercial context at 1,000 per day or per copy which ever is the greater (thats an offer and notice of consideration, use will constitute acceptance and forms contract) as soon as I become aware of use I will start proceedings to collect fees due If in doubt Ask
If you are in a commercial context (you paid something) and are reading this then I didnt get a cut. Let me know and Ill split what I recover with you
Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
By Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D & PRINCE2 regd
Programmes and Complex Projects
Logical Model Ltd
They who think education is expensive have not yet assessed what they pay for ignorance
Domestics
Logical Model Ltd
Cheese
I had to do something to earn my current Cheese Having Cheese makes me happy The more important that my Cheese is to me the more I want to hold on to it Change happens: the faceless they will (re)move your old Cheese Noticing small changes in my Cheese helps me anticipate change in advance & adapt to big changes when they arrive Smell the Cheese often to check for small changes The world changes, my Cheese is moved: If I do not change I will become extinct I did things last week. I had Cheese last week. If I do things differently next week I may not have Cheese Thinking about not having Cheese makes me afraid Being afraid stops me doing things differently I have to ask myself What would I do if I were not afraid When I stop feeling afraid I start feeling good Imagining myself enjoying New Cheese is the first step leading me to it
Logical Model Ltd
Inspired by Who Moved My Cheese by Dr Spenser Johnson an excellent 45 minute read
Cheese
Movement in a new direction helps me find New Cheese The sooner I let go of stale old Cheese the sooner I find New Cheese It is safer to search for New Cheese than remain in a Cheese-less state Old beliefs do not lead to New Cheese Beliefs only change when we believe that there is New Cheese to be discovered and enjoyed
The new ideas in this or any course need conscious effort to be understood
Worse!, it takes much more effort to put them into use
Examine your Old Cheese for mould ((problems with current working) Imagine your self enjoying your New Cheese (benefits of new practices)
Consider the steps to move from one comfort zone to a new one
Who needs to be involved, What actions, When & What is in it for them
Share your insights & FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) in class
Discussing implementation challenges helps you prepare for action Gives comfort knowing others have been & are succeeding (and helps networking)
Promise yourself 1 action now, with a date. On your return to the office plan your intended 6 achievements with a milestone each Friday till done
Logical Model Ltd
Who Are We All?

Name, Role and Organisation: Telling others about yourself
Logical Model Ltd
Change Managers* Assessment Card

Performance Factors Far Exceeds Requirements Exceeds Requirements Meets Requirements Needs some Improvement Does not meet Requirements
Quality
Timeliness
Communication
Initiative
Adaptability
Leaps tall buildings with a single bound Needs a running start to leap tall buildings Can only leap small buildings Crashes into buildings Cannot recognise buildings
Is faster than a bullet Is as fast as a bullet Not quite as fast as a bullet Is as fast as a slow bullet Wounds self with gun
Logical Model Ltd
Talks with God Talks with Angels Talks to self Argues with self Loses those arguments
Is stronger than a locomotive Is stronger than a bull elephant Is stronger than a bull Shoots the bull Smells like a bull
Walks on water consistently Walks on water in emergencies Washes with water Drinks water
Passes water in emergencies
*Change management is a generic term for both Project management and Programme management 8
My Assumption
A typical reader of these materials should have Real-world experience of projects (Not necessarily as project manager) For advanced classes it is useful if readers are qualified at PMP, IPMA-D or -C or PRINCE2 Registered practitioner or equivalent level Basic level courses assume no back-ground Advanced courses assume that you know why and how to use techniques such as work-shops and tools such as white-boards and Product Breakdown Structure (PBS) and WBS outside a classroom, that you know what the critical path is, how to use float as a type of resource & appreciate the need for levelling
If you are unsure of how (and why) use the tools noted above then a free course covering those skills are available at www.logicalmodel.net. You need it before advanced ones If you would like a quick overview of just why to use these tools in reality then my white papers on the use of PBS/ WBS, Doing risk, Post-It planning and more can be found by search simon harris on the web-sites of the American Society for The Advancement of Project Management and PM Today
Logical Model Ltd
PRINCE2 is a trademark of the OGC in the UK and other countries and they demand their recognition with this note on everything bureaucracy!
Style
10
3 Types of Slide The core message: Places where we dwell

Focus of what we need to cover to complete the course
Sign-post, objectives and summaries: Navigational elements to give context Reference, detail and expansion: Places we may flash-past (up to you to say if you wish to dwell longer)
Support what we are covering
2 Types of session (mostly alternate) Input: explanation of tools and techniques

90% me, Please interrupt and ask questions as soon and whenever you need to
Use: exploration of meaning

Best if it is 90% you, debate and argue application, interpretation, variation
1 Conversation: All contribute and give each other space

Logical Model Ltd
10
Path To Success
11
Projects & Programmes are vehicles of change Understanding we start & end with the Business Impact of desired change Plans must match reality Creating project and programme plans that track moving & uncertain targets Planning, design, creativity & spontaneity Defining and using complexity to achieve desired change Governance structures appropriate to the risks and politics Control structures for programme & project monitoring Steering: plan plus status = decisions Learning: transforming course attendance into Business Impact
Logical Model Ltd
11
12
Projects run successfully when they use controls effectively Our controls include your feedback I try hard not to offend, bamboozle or bore you. If you have feedback at any time please advise me in what ever way is comfortable for you so I can act
EG: Comment, in person in class/ at a break/ at the end of day or Add a note to one of the Ground-Rules flip-charts or Blu-tac a note or stick a Post-it to the back of the training room door
While comments on the end of event form are always welcomed and acted upon they are too late to make the event better for you If I dont know its unlikely I will fix it, If I do know I can at least try Eg Course pace, topic depth, time given each topic, heating/ lighting, Exercises & debrief, Anecdotes & jokes, Catering or parking, Course notes and pens, etc etc etc without limit
Notes:
Logical Model Ltd
Chapter Notes & Actions to Implement 12
The Courses Purpose

14
This course attempts to set-out the tools, techniques, tips, traps and principales needed when leading complex projects and programmes.
It also covers basic project management tools from the you may need a refresher perspective
Many senior practitioners omit the use of the basic tools which makes the job harder than it has to be and invites stress or failure at more complex levels My mistakes: seeing everyones perspective and thus realising what isnt obvious to others (or seeing what, with some distance is obviously an error) is impossible. IE this contains errors, flaws & weaknesses: tell me via Cplx@LogicalModel.Net and Ill fix them The course was written to be instructor led (more details later). Hopefully it is of value as self-study Please pass a copy or a link on to those you think would find it useful - thanks
Logical Model Ltd
Some of my thoughts as expressed in this work were refined in discussions I have had while on assignment for Atlantic Management Centre International (AMCI) Ltd. I thank them for agreeing that, where representation of ideas have merged and been shared, AMCI is content this acknowledgement discharges any obligation to them.
14
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. Introductions & Logistics Change is Aimed at Business As Usual Sponsors Focus Funding The Programme (it isnt just money) Coping with Threat While Seeking Opportunity Constraints, Limits And Assumptions Pursuit of Opportunity, Vision & Investment Creating The Will To Accept Change Business Case is Strategic Risk Strategic Alignment Planning Horizons Project And Programme Defined Roles & Responsibilities Deciding The Approach & Structure Procurement Of Goods And Services Techniques For Planning Life-cycles, Stage Gates And Governance Through Approvals Project Control And Technical Development Cycles Planning at Programme Level End Point, Quality is Scope is Quality is Activities at Handover (Technical & Business)
Logical Model Ltd
Route-Map: Programmes and Complex Projects

22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. Programme Deliveries Caring For People & Process When Closing Down Initiatives Stakeholder Management From Goal To Deliverables From Deliverables To Activities From Activities To Critical Path From Critical Path To Resourced Schedule Estimating Probabilistic Schedules Complexity Complexity: Systems And Projects Communications in The Complex Project Measuring Complexity Control Of Change Governance Is Plan + Status = Steering Decision Current Plan As Selected Route Across The Landscape Tracking And Reporting Progress Steering Committees Measurement Analysis And Correction Where Are We, Where Will We Be? Learning From Experience
15
15
Change is Aimed at Business As Usual
Target in two senses: 1) Current BAU is hit and 2) We have a hit when the new BAU emerges
Logical Model Ltd
16
Next: Change is Aimed at Business As Usual

17
1. Learning From Experience 2. Arriving at Business As Usual 3. Corporate Development Model 4. Improving the Organisations Ability 5. Project Management 6. Improving The Individuals Capability
Logical Model Ltd
17
Learning From Experience

18
Everything is circular This is out last chapter, but LfE is only of value when done first Four aspects: 1. Tell me how to ride a bicycle
r~v2/a To compensate for a given angle of imbalance (a), we must take a curve, radius (r), on the side of the imbalance, proportional to the square of the velocity (v) over the imbalance
2. Experience (Do) Reflection (Observe) Synthasise (Hypothesis) Experiment (Do) 3. I know tacitly I make explicit you know explicitly you know tacitly 4. Unconsciously incompetent Consciously incompetent Consciously competent Unconsciously competent
Logical Model Ltd
18
Arriving at Business As Usual

19
Benefits streams and benefits harvesting are the results of change management* Pursuit of benefits often triggered by someone learning from experience How will you change as a result of being here? Benefits are in BAU Projects only enable a new usual Programmes group projects to achieve new business Business is a collection of people and processes
Why change?
*Change management is a generic term for both Project management and Programme management 19
Logical Model Ltd
Corporate Development Model

20
Probability
Decisions made on sound basis & Decisions made on sound basis & even in anticipation of affects even in anticipation of affects across all work areas across all work areas
Increasing Maturity Increasing Maturity
Level 2-5
Estimate
Probability
Cost, Time
Improved Performance Improved Performance
Estimates match reality & Estimates match reality & are therefore usable are therefore usable
Cost, Time
Level 1
Estimate
Probability
Plans reflect reality Plans reflect reality
Reality does not Reality does not match estimates match estimates
Level 0
Estimate
Logical Model Ltd
Cost, Time
Mismatch between Mismatch between plans & reality plans & reality
20
Improving the Organisations Ability

21
Organisations ability to improve comes from shared history QMS defines standard work instructions & procedures Standard tasks = standard durations = standard costs & resources Basis for evolutionary, gradual, consistent improvement Standard break-down structures define products, phases, responsibilities Distribution curves are higher & narrower (less variation) Natural basis for training & competency development Provides architecture for recording estimates and actuals Standards in the QMS and xBSs in the PMO form the basis of an experience database All adds up to competitive advantage
Logical Model Ltd
21
Project Management
22
PMI, PMBOK, PMP accreditation APM, APMBOK & Pathways Suite of qualifications PRINCE OGC (public domain) ownership APMG administered registration of qualified practitioners ISEB & other (eg NVQ) Major consultancies/ corporate internal methods Governance, policy & delegated authorities Roles & responsibilities
Logical Model Ltd
22
Improving The Individuals Capability

23
Allow time to do it right is quicker in the long run Start now is only best when proceeding in the correct direction
May be justified when the fire-alarm is sounding
Change management tool-bag is big, takes time to learn content Not every tool on every occasion Establish (non-financial) rewards for good work [and consequences for bad?] Recognition Choice pieces of work The economy punishes the company for poor performance
Should there be personal consequences for poor performance?
Management skills require explanation, coaching, learning Cascade what you know up and down through the teams
Logical Model Ltd
23
Focus shapes responsibilities in execution of change
Sponsors Focus
Logical Model Ltd
24
Next: Sponsors Focus

25
1. Context 2. Benefits are Uncertain 3. Risk Seeking V. Risk Avoiding 4. Drivers for Business Stakeholders 5. Benefits Management 6. How? 7. Source of Benefits 8. Expressing Benefits 9. Benefits How: What When
Logical Model Ltd
25
Context Business Context

26
Company Context
Shareholder
Strategy Determination
Functional Mgmt
idea outcome
Competition
risk Change Initiative opportunity
Regulators
investment
Logical Model Ltd
benefit
Customer
26
Benefits are Uncertain

27
Any source of opportunity accompanied by threat What is certainty Risks have a probability outcomes of interest possible outcomes Uncertainty Outcome set is unknown (unknowable) and/ or probabilities are unknown Assessment of uncertainty is speculative Projects & programmes deal in uncertainty
Logical Model Ltd
27
Risk Seeking V. Risk Avoiding

28
Would you rather have a Sure-Thing or (P% chance of Gain and 100-P% chance of Loss) When chasing targets we tend to be risk seeking when protecting the status quo we tend to be risk averse Senior people & people in blame cultures tend to be protectors of the status quo!!!
Ambivalent between the 2 choices
Risk Appetite
Averse
Seeking Size of Risk
Take the sure thing worth 100
Take the Value at Risk potential to be 200 but may be 0
Probability % Factored Value Averse Choice Slight Averse
10.00% 20 Take the ST
20.00% 40 Sure ST ST ST The
30.00% 60 Thing ST ST Logical Model Ltd ST V@R
40.00% 80 ST ST ST
50.00% 100 ST ST
60.00% 120 ST ST V@R
70.00% 140 ST
80.00% 160 ST V@R
90.00% 180 ST V@R V@R V@R V@R
Neutral Ltd +44 ST Logical Model Choice (0) 845 2 57 57 07 Slight Seeking Seeking Choice ST Take
V@R V@R V@R
V@R V@R V@R
V@R V@R V@R
V@R V@R
28
Drivers for Business Stakeholders

29
Costs
Product Revenues
Logical Model Ltd
29
Benefits Management
30
Coherent structure to Develop, deliver and bring into use (create outcomes from) the products delivered from projects Projects produce deliverables: Businesses need outcomes Programme management often encompasses benefits Benefits come from the changes in business conduct Programme often vehicle to achieve change and benefits Benefits Management is always a business accountability Accountability cannot be pass-on Activities can be outsourced or delegated Outcome of change seen as positive by (major) stakeholders
Logical Model Ltd
30
How?
31
Actions to gain benefits are Job descriptions: Management change staff roles & responsibilities Culture: Management change behaviours & attitudes Systems: Management change process and skills Infrastructure: Project or Programme deliverables (insufficient on own) Post Project Review Plan must identify Who is accountable a named individual Who sees it a named individual When do they see it a meeting, report or other tangible item How do they recognise it scale and value On what date can they expect it explicit date (Scale, value, date may be a series of targets for evolving capability)
Logical Model Ltd
31
Source of Benefits
32
There are only 3 sources of benefit: New revenue/capital (or utility, or satisfaction, or smiling people) More revenue/capital from existing sources (bigger smiles) Less cost in revenues/ ROCE* (More margin, all smiles no frowns) Financial value comes from either: Match to the competition: disadvantage removed Competitive advantage gained Information to aid decisions: better, faster, cheaper Projects create products, products have impact and value Products impact the processes and the tasks or roles of people New processes and tasks create benefits Product needed capability operation performed benefit stream
Logical Model Ltd
* Return on Capital Employed32
Expressing Benefits
33
Many Benefits Management issues are rooted in poor specification No specification of current status or desired end-point Measurement must be objective, absolute and numeric* Provide vocabulary and tools to express desired benefits with clarity Replace improve, reduce, enable with dated absolutes Secure agreement between all parties Remove subjectivity Incentives those involved Expressing utility is hard, normally comparative
Logical Model Ltd
everything can * Not that can bethat countscounts.be- counted33 not everything counted, Einstein
Benefits How: What When
34
Set vision or goal Set vision or goal Plan Benefits Management Plan Benefits Management Engage business participants Engage business participants Define measures Define measures
Measure the results Measure the results
Your idea
Project bit Project bit Business bit Business bit
Project bit Business bit Business bit
Measure the status Quo Measure the status Quo Plan Realisation Plan Realisation Involve business participants Involve business participants
Logical Model Ltd
Embed tracking process Embed tracking process Foster business ownership Foster business ownership
34
Options and the politics of each source of resource
Funding The Programme (it isnt just money)
Logical Model Ltd
35
Next: Funding The Programme (it isnt just money)
36
1. Funding Implications 2. Budget As Planning Constraint 3. Budgeting
Logical Model Ltd
36
Funding Implications
37
Programme funded by central money or divisional budgets New money or diverted money: Different politics Programme may be a cost centre in the organization
Or a cost code in each profit centre
Project (if we are rational) Specific amount defined after planning for scope & quality or Amount constrained at outset that dictates scope & quality
Programme May be as project Often budgeted on an allowance I.e $m p.a. Revenue streams & share price affect programme affordability , nding , ing u nd Funds allocated to projects against justifications ect f o ffect fu l? r es f ccesaaf conttrol? en rren and con fe i e iion e difffecutton and h d Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 do ttheg, ex ecu o in , ex How dann ing Howpl ann 37 pl
Logical Model Ltd
Budget As Planning Constraint

38
Ration what we do based on what we can afford Money not the only (or even main) rationed resource Budget connects resources available to goals that it will be possible to achieve Defines (constrains) accessible benefits (Goals have financial value) Operational units have cyclical patterns that may constrain product deliver window Deliveries affect existing organisations capability Ability to absorb change is the most restricting budget Willingness is next most restricted!
ile a wh ile wh in a n More i ore M
Logical Model Ltd
38
Budgeting
39
Harder to estimate than departmental budgets Programmes (or more precisely their projects) not neatly aligned to financial years No year on year track record for estimating histories
(In one sense hopefully there arent!)
May be round-up of multiple projects and appropriation of funds Often minutely scrutinised
At allocation even if never again
Timing of expenditure often of interest Treasury function & cash-flow forecasts Large CapEx may be most significant outlay for the organisation Rules for capitalising & depreciating programme spend
Logical Model Ltd
39
Coping with Threat While Seeking Opportunity
Logical Model Ltd
40
Next: Coping with Threat While Seeking Opportunity
41
9 Steps Risk Defined Keys To Risk Management Threat & Opportunity Interaction Tools For Risk Identification Qualitative Methods Ordinal Scales A Sample Exposure Matrix Threat Assessment Matrix Risk Management Process Risk Log Contents Response Types Risk Response Hierarchy Done Right It Isnt A Step
Logical Model Ltd
41
9 Steps
42
Iden
enc ting Co n
A ss
A wa rene ss
ent rem Reti
Prev
ito Mon
R es
Res
ent essm
tion tifica
se pon
Logical Model Ltd
s e D ev e po n
enti ve
ring
Co nt i n ge
Re s er v es
S elec tio
lo pm e n t
Record Keeping
nt
42
Risk Defined
43
Definition An event that if it occurs will cause an impact to CSFs Fundamental characteristics Event probability
Can be made more or less likely to happen
H Impact
Outcome - impact
Positive or negative change to project cost, L schedule or scope baseline Probability Effect can be enhanced or reduced
L
Logical Model Ltd
43
Keys To Risk Management

44
Well expressed risks We may be late is not enough to assist response development There is a risk that use of rare skill S in project P results in task estimates being too low resulting in the need to recruit new staff One events outcome may be the event in a new risk TIART being unable to recruit extra resource will be a bottleneck in delivery schedules leading to delays in dependant projects Event may have multiple impacts (outcomes) and thus drive up the contract rate for S, and alert the competition to our actions, and miss our marketing deadlines, and . Impact may result from multiple events
Logical Model Ltd
44
Threat & Opportunity Interaction

45
E Event O Outcome A - Action
A4
A6
A7
O1 / E3 E1 O2 E2 O3 A1 A2 A3 A4
O4 / E4 O5
O6
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6
A1
Logical Model Ltd
E1 E2 E3 E4 O1 O6
+ + + --
-- + -
++ -
+ +
--
45
Tools For Risk Identification

46
Task lists, schedules and budgets Work Breakdown Structures Brainstorming a key tool Affinity analysis Lessons Learned histories and aide-memoirs Taxonomies Checklists
Logical Model Ltd
46
Qualitative Methods
47
What is a scale? When numbers are impossible, too expensive, too slow High/ Medium and Low are the best scale How many steps 3, 5, 7 What does V. Unlikely mean to me Is that what it means to you
Would 12% be better? What is the difference between 78% and 92% likely? Only different if.
Logical Model Ltd
47
Ordinal Scales
48
Use statements that describe an ordinal or incremental scale; e.g.: 10 9 Government falls 8 Make global headlines 2 Causes minor inconvenience Non-linear: 6 to 7 is not proportional to 7 to 8
Project Objective Very Low .05 Cost Increase < team tolerance Low .1 Below PM Tolerance Within buffers Moderate .2 Below Project Tolerance Renegotiate resourcing High .4 Requires re-funding request Very High .8 Board level decision
Cost
Schedule < Team tolerance Scope
Any impact on benefits Overall Project Schedule case Slips >120% Impact of benefits case Benefits impact removes > 3% project from best use of resources list Quality impact unacceptable to client Project end item is effectively unusable
With agreed tolerances Outside tolerance only Renegotiation of when taken in aggregate baseline with-in cost/ time/ quality Quality impact barely noticeable
Logical Model Ltd
Quality
Only demanding Quality impact applications are affected requires client approval
48
A Sample Exposure Matrix

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Threats Opportunities
49
Adapted From The Project Management Body Of Knowledge Chapter 11
V. Low Probability V. High High Med Low V. Low 0.900 0.700 0.500 0.300 0.100 0.050 0.045 0.035 0.025 0.015 0.005
Low 0.100 0.090 0.070 0.050 0.030 0.010
Med 0.200 0.180 0.140 0.100 0.060 0.020
High 0.400 0.360 0.280 0.200 0.120 0.040
V. High 0.800 0.720 0.560 0.400 0.240 0.080
V. High 0.800 0.720 0.560 0.400 0.240 0.080
High 0.400 0.360 0.280 0.200 0.120 0.040
Med 0.200 0.180 0.140 0.100 0.060 0.020
Low 0.100 0.090 0.070 0.050 0.030 0.010
V. Low 0.050 0.045 0.035 0.025 0.015 0.005
Logical Model Ltd
49
Threat Assessment Matrix

50
Qualitative & quantitative approaches combined
Health & Saftey Environment Reputation Long term Multiple wide-spread Deaths damage Death or Localised Injurys long term Widespread short Injury term National Outrage Local Outrage
Financial Loss
Qualitative
< 1 in 10,000 Extremely Unlikely
< 1 in 1,000 Very Unlikely Crisis High Crisis Medium
<1 in 100 <1 in 10 Unlikely Crisis High Crisis High Possible Crisis High Crisis High
> 1 in 10 Likely Crisis High Crisis High
> 100m >10m
Crisis Catastrophic Medium Crisis Crisis Low
Time off Short term work localised Easy CleanFirst aid up Complaints
Regulatory Censure >1m Local Media & Customer impact >100k >10k
Severe
Low
Moderate High
Unaccep Very High table Very High
Moderate
Logical Model Ltd
Low Very Low
Low Low
Moderate High Low
Low
Moderate High
50
Risk Management Process

51
Avoided Still a manageable risk Closed Select & take action
Assess current I&P
Develop response
Risk Happens Contingency or Workaround
Escalate to Higher Authority
Identify & record
Team Leader Project Manager Programme Corporate Meeting packs & Project Meetings Report Risk Status
Logical Model Ltd
51
Risk Log Contents

52
Risk ID, Date, Person raising, and contact details Current status (summary/ duplication of action log: pragmatically open/ closed) Footprint (or scope of impact & response) Project or projects affected by prevention, reduction, transfer of event Projects affected by contingent or accepted work-arounds of outcome Description of Risk Trigger or Event (Threat or Opportunity) Event or context triggering the outcome Timescales to trigger for actions to affect probability Linked risk records for multiple Cause/Effect (Trigger/Outcome) pairs and secondary risk Description of Risk Outcomes (Impact Assessment) Timescales to impact for actions to affect impact Impact descriptions for each of (scope, schedule, costs, quality, resourcing, reputation) Responses (multiple entries per risk) Possible Event response plan, cost, residual probability & decision authority Possible Impact response plan, cost, residual impact & decision authority Action log Response taken, plans revised, person taking action, person authorising action Logical Model Ltd Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 Implementation state (in progress, completed/ closed, others as descriptive)
52
Response Types
53
Event / Probability Reduction (to 0 = Prevention) Reduction to oh well that is enough = Acceptance Transference
Is it ever really transfer?
H Impact Insure Prevent
Outcome / Impact Reduction (to 0 = Prevention) Reduction to oh well that is enough = Acceptance Transference
Real transfer (eg Insurance)
L Prob. Contingent Accept L
Contingency
Logical Model Ltd
53
Risk Response Hierarchy

54
1. 1. 2. 2.
Physical Controls Physical Controls Preventative measure Preventative measure Procedural Controls Procedural Controls Preventative measure Preventative measure
Very high & above Very high & above Multiple safeguards from all Multiple safeguards from all classes classes High in High <1 < 1 in Safeguards in at least100classes 10,000 1,000 Safeguards in at <1 in 3 classes least 3 <1 in 10 Extremely Very including contingent including contingent
> 1 in 10 Likely Crisis High Crisis High Unaccep table Very High
3. Human oriented Health & Financial 3. Human oriented Saftey Training, roles & responsibilities, Qualitative Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Possible Environment Reputation Loss Training, roles & responsibilities, Moderate Moderate supervision Long term supervision Safeguards in 2 categoriesCrisis Multiple Preventative measure wide-spread National Crisis Crisis Crisis Safeguards in 2 categories damage Preventative measure > 100m including contingent Deaths Outrage Catastrophic Medium High High High including contingent 4. Contingency arrangements Death or Localised Local Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis 4. Contingency arrangements Low Low Injurys long Outrage Crisis Low Medium High High Postterm containment >10m Wide-event containment Post event Safeguards in at least contingent Safeguards in at least contingent classes spread short Regulatory classes Injury term Censure >1m Severe Low Moderate High Very High Very Low Very Low Local Media Safeguards may not be required Time off Short term & Customer Safeguards may not be required
localised impact Easy CleanFirst aid up Complaints work >100k Moderate Low Low Low Low Moderate High >10k Very Low Low
Logical Model Ltd
Moderate High
54
Done Right It Isnt A Step

55
Threat and opportunity management IS the core of change management Should not be regarded as separate You dont do it separately it is integrated into the other steps
N Watch Trigger Y Contingency in Place Y N Work-Around Contingency Actions
Logical Model Ltd
N Has it past Y Close
55
Who Are Logical Model Ltd (LML)?

56
A niche consultancy that delivers training and consultancy around control and governance of project based benefits realisation LMLs purpose is to improve the project management state of the art through popularisation of what is common-sense (which I suggest is obvious after it is observed not necessarily is widely-known)
Consultancy & training in Basic structured project management Tools and techniques for advanced project & programme management Leading complex projects Recovery of struggling projects Creating & running PMOs Project risk and quality management Using Earned Value Analysis Board briefings on project control & governance
Logical Model Ltd
Continued Dimension Four Benefits Realisation Method training and consultancy PRINCE2 use in the real-world & PRINCE2 Exam preparation (but only if
you insist on exams as we believe they create the wrong focus which ends-up destroying the value to a business)
Implementing IT Governance using the CobiT Framework Implementing Benefits Realisation & Lessons Learned processes
56
Individual Use
57
These materials are provided free of charge for the use of individuals studying for their own professional development If you encounter them in a context where a reasonable person might conclude someone is using them in a money-making setting: E.g. on a training course, provided on a company network or from your boss then please email details to License@LogicalModel.Net and I will treat your information as confidential AND share any fees I manage to levy Further support for these materials is available and is explained in subsequent chapters and summarised at the end of the slides
Logical Model Ltd
57
Other Support Materials

58
The slides in this .pdf are static but almost every slide of the PowerPoint is animated The PowerPoint is available for a very modest fee see website for details www.logicalmodel.net Let me know if a narrated version would be of interest
Logical Model Ltd
58
Cascading intent and escalating mismatches Project plans meet programme constraints
Constraints, Limits And Assumptions
Logical Model Ltd
59
Next: Constraints, Limits And Assumptions

60
1. Stepping Into The Future 2. Vision 3. Know The Trade-offs: Better, Faster, Cheaper (Pick Two) 4. Know The Limits (And Escalations) 5. Balance: Risk Versus Rewards 6. Attitude Towards Risk 7. Asymmetry In Loss And Gain 8. Terms Of Reference: Project Contract
Logical Model Ltd
60
Stepping Into The Future

61
Conduct workshops that define the desired end-point Use business own vocabulary The means by which stakeholder (dis)agreement is reached
Aligning all stakeholders to the same outcome
Tested by Describes the world after the (programme, project, phase) is complete Tells me how I will know the achievements are acceptable Goal always accompanied by assumptions and constraints Know the limits that cannot be overstepped Let the steering group understand the battle-grounds upon which their decision making responsibilities will be played out Simple set of mechanics Does not mean simple to run!
Logical Model Ltd
61
Vision Business Context

62
Company Context
Shareholder Directorate
Strategy Determination Pgm Team
Functional Mgmt Operations 62 Staff Programme
Competition
Vision
Programme Constraints Planning
Regulators
Deliverables Project Project Project Project Project Project Action
Goal
Logical Model Ltd
Customer
Know The Trade-offs: Better, Faster, Cheaper (Pick Two)
63
Constrained
Refine a product New Product Refine a product
New Product Refine a product
Controlled
Consequential
New Product
Logical Model Ltd
63
Know The Limits (And Escalations)

64
In tolerance (just) Escalation Zone Tolerance Limit Baseline Current Status Start
Goal
Logical Model Ltd
64
Balance: Risk Versus Rewards

65
Triangles 4th side: Risk tolerance Set-up controls matched to risk Two sorts of risk in a project Risk related to What & why or the outcome
Strategic belongs to sponsor for acceptance, response or rejection
Risk from How Tactical belongs to project manager & teams Responses to risks are part of project scope Actions to address included in WBS, budget & schedule Risk identification and response development is PART OF PLANNING PMs duty to qualify and express the stakeholders willingness to tolerate risk and reward trade-offs High risk projects linked to potential for high gain
Logical Model Ltd
r llater iis ate s on th n th ore o More M
65
Attitude Towards Risk

66
For all the science wrapped around it, in the final analysis risk is an emotional, personal, subjective topic What is Risk Tolerance or Risk Appetite Management attitude to risk is Comfortable-with Wary-of Scared-by
Logical Model Ltd
66
Asymmetry In Loss And Gain

67
Which TV programme are we playing Scenario 1: You gain 32,000 You had 32,000youve now got 64,000 Scenario 2: You lose 15,000 You had 16,000It is the wrong answer, youve just lost 15,000 Oh my God Scenario 3: You lose 32,000 You had 32,000youve still got 32,000 Oh well I dont care Try this Buy your new sofa this weekend or lose our massive savings
Logical Model Ltd
67
Terms Of Reference: Project Contract
68
Produced by the Programme or Delivery Manager (or sponsor)* Given to the Change Manager to delegate authority States change initiatives outcome Specifies authorities, tolerances and controls Can NOT be a pricing quotation Rarely does anyone know enough to fix price & schedule at this time IS a record of imposed constraints And the process for escalating trade-offs between constraints explored during planning Records obligations of and commitment from ALL stakeholders Sign-off by stakeholders shows commitment to their obligations Agreement in principal - 1st step to a schedule
May include undated phase level plan
Logical Model Ltd
*Probably by delegating the writing to the project manager 68
No return without cooperation, No cooperation without motivation, No motivation without view of the end-point
Pursuit of Opportunity: Vision & Investment
Logical Model Ltd
69
Next: Pursuit of Opportunity: Vision & Investment
70
1. Establishing The Vision 2. Vision 3. Purpose Of Vision 4. Vision & Leadership 5. Vision 6. Vision Checklist 7. How To Establish The Vision (or Goal) 8. Meeting Conduct 9. Impacts (or Deliverables) 10. What vs. How 11. Requirements
Logical Model Ltd
70
Establishing The Vision

71
Pre-requisite for programme planning Business strategy may already exist When the vision is not available gather stakeholders for strategy sessions Use goal setting techniques Key component of process is to unmask disagreement Resolving disagreements is major success factor Vision is combination of Where we will be at the end How will we know we have got there When do we want/have to be there Assumptions and constraints affecting the route to the goal
Logical Model Ltd
71
Stakeholders
Shareholder Sponsor Vision Budget Regulators PM
Need
Vision Business Context

Company Context
72
Benefits Stream Pgm Team Functional Mgmt Operations 72Staff Programme
Competition
PM
PM
Deliverables Team Leaders Pre-Requisites Budget Leaders Team Team Leaders The Team The Team Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 The Team Customer
Need Budget Logical Model Ltd
Purpose Of Vision
73
Stakeholders drive the vision From the vision decide: What will the organisations functions be in the future I.e. How will benefits be generated Drives What systems and processes are needed I.e. Capabilities or products Drives What projects are required in what sequence and with what interdependencies Drives Budgets, resources and skills, schedules and timings
Logical Model Ltd
73
Vision & Leadership

74
What is Vision? Description of the future How is it different from Goal? Is short, I could read it between floors in the lift What is Strategy? Principals and major steps (leaps?) to the future Easily explained over lunch What is Leadership? Excite and delight, Inspire, Trust Do the right things What is Management? Do things right: to plan
Logical Model Ltd
? each ? each of f oses o ses rp o p he pu r e pu th re t e hat a r at a h W W
74
Vision
75
Is
Clear sense of direction: What change is needed Simple, Relevant, Sensible, Uplifting, Believed In the ears, eyes and hands of all the people Communicated for understanding & gut level buy-in Motivates, touches hearts and minds, drives strategy
Is Not Detailed, a budget or plan Behind closed doors
AT T r WH A ssiians WH u ssans ou r e R u y is y ou OW is e vs th e Roon W d vs th HO i e M oon My H al Pr id My n al Pr he o the M o atio n an t o t N i dam t Eg N at nd a m an Eg Se n Se
Bad vision Missing or poorly written, endless directives, uncoordinated, energy-less Vision overcomes inertia & develops momentum Why & what (drives how, my how is your what how their what) Set out the alternative visions when one is not clearly correct/ chosen Compare the pros and cons
Logical Model Ltd
75
Vision Checklist
76
Step into the future and look back Describe future in outcome language: We have achieved
Sales turnover, Employees, Customers, Beliefs, Actions steps, Competitors
What will we look like, What is our core product, service or skill, What people will we have, What will our ads say, What will our customers demand, What will our plant and offices look like, What will we excel at, What will the market think, What will our p/e and share-price be, Who will our customers be, Who will our people be, Who will the competition and partners be, How will we feel, How will we operate, How will we think, How will we respond to the demands, Where will we be located, where will we do business When Why
Cover what matters omit what does not, not the other-way around
Logical Model Ltd
76
How To Establish The Vision (or Goal)

77
Gather stakeholders at a PIW Programme (or Project) Initiation Workshop Adequately prepared & empowered to make decisions & commitments May be many days (or weeks) of pre-meeting preparation
Interviews & questionnaires have their place, but are rarely a complete substitute
2 Steps Step 1: Construct a single statement that includes all Critical Success Factors
Stakeholders must sign-up to the statement (or recognise the change initiative is in for a political future) Identify and resolve conflicts over what is constrained, controlled & consequential
Step 2: Identify the deliverables

Impacts, outcomes, results
Logical Model Ltd
77
Meeting Conduct
78
One focus Limit duration All areas represented Contributions to project required by each stakeholder group also identified
Objective: a sentence or paragraph that everyone agrees to
Logical Model Ltd
78
Impacts (or Deliverables)

79
Are all the needs of all the stakeholders met by the minimum set of outcomes? Customer view of the definition of scope Basis for identifying customers specification & acceptance duties Basis for planning all project activity (Supplier scope view) Bridge between Customer interest right things produced Supplier interest things produced correctly Basis for planning quality, budgeting & scheduling Foundation stone for all resource, schedule, cost and time estimates
Logical Model Ltd
79
What vs. How

80
Programme (& project) TOR/ PID sets out the what Planning determines how What is business oriented Definitive statement of needs Basis for future detailed requirements specification
How is technically oriented Leads to project specification I.E. planning/design and the management & technical plans Limited by resources and skills available PID gives enough context to plan requirements gathering (waterfall approach), or set the time or budget limits (iterative approaches) What and How cascade Businesses how is Programmes what, Programme how is project what
Logical Model Ltd
80
Requirements
81
Requirements phase extends description of goal & deliverables into full specification Full specification resolves all decisions and confirms assumptions SMARTer the requirements then the greater the precision of estimated cost/time/scope Requirements specification is the scope baseline & acceptance criteria
Functional and non-functional acceptance criteria
Basis of quality: good requirements a prerequisite to achieving quality Crosbys definition of quality is Conformance to requirements Requirements must be traceable back to the business needs & forward to acceptance tests to be performed Writing requirements is a waste of time: just write acceptance criteria!
Logical Model Ltd
*Phillip Crosby: Quality is Free 81
Reminder of Obligations
82
This is a complete training course in our project skills series! And for FREE if used for personal, individual development!! No catches everything needed is within this file If you want to use this intellectual property as a commercial offering thats fine too as long as you cut me in I dont want much !! Pre-arranged commercial use removes this notice, gives you animated slides that build procedures step-by-step, also step-by-step exercise files, instructor notes, suggested time-line for delivery and support
For non pre-arranged commercial use (IE where you charge a fee) I hereby offer you a contract to use this materials, without prior notice in a commercial context at 1,000 per day or per copy which ever is the greater (thats an offer and notice of consideration, use will constitute acceptance and forms contract) as soon as I become aware of use I will start proceedings to collect fees due If in doubt Ask
If you are in a commercial context (you paid something) and are reading this then I didnt get a cut. Let me know and Ill split what I recover with you
Logical Model Ltd
82
Funding the change with peoples energy The most important budget
Creating The Will To Accept Change
Logical Model Ltd
83
Next: Creating The Will To Accept Change

84
1. Limits to Absorbing Change 2. Willing Change It Still Takes Time 3. Management of Change The Prince pub. 1515 4. Prerequisites 5. Feelings vs. Analysis 6. Analyse-Think-Change 7. Who Drives Change 8. Guiding Team 9. Engine of Faith 10. Assessing Sponsorship
Logical Model Ltd
84
Limits to Absorbing Change

85
Harshest limit in the organisation is the rate of change Limit to what people can absorb into operations Change plus change > 2 * Change more like Change2
Change follows well-know cycles Imposed change cycle

Shock: they want to do WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anger: How stupid. They didnt talk to me. I could have told them Resistance: Any fool can see the problem with Acceptance: but maybe a new opportunity, benefits Helping: suppose we
Like any process it takes time & needs management*

Logical Model Ltd
* We will explore it later 85
Willing Change It Still Takes Time
86
Changing behaviours requires Thought, actions, milestones, budget, incubation time An owner & champion An understood & used process Monitoring, adjustment and control
Enthusiasm
Time New venture

Realisation
Logical Model Ltd
1st Success
End in Sight
86
Management of Change
87
Programmes change organisations People are not good at and do not welcome change No change is an evolutionary survival mechanism*
New concept
Resistance
Awareness Incubation
Readiness
Skill acquisition
Application
Logical Model Ltd
And it is also an extinction mechanism but that is a later topic
87
Management of Change The Prince pub. 1515
88
Those who by valorous ways become princesacquire a principality with difficulty, but they keep it with ease. The difficulties they have in acquiring it arise in part from the new rules and methods which they are forced to introduce to establish their government and its security. And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them. Thus it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the opportunity to attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others defend lukewarmly, in such wise that the prince is endangered along with them. Nicoli Machiavelli, 14691527
Logical Model Ltd
88
Prerequisites
89
For change to happen it must be connected to goals How do organisations change ? By changing their peoples behaviours (or changing the people) By removing the procedures and rules that are obstacles to change For change to happen people must be dissatisfied with the status quo Why do people change Because they feel they will get an improvement from the change (and they dont change out of fear that they will lose what they have) Feel that is its possible to achieve No change until the empowered can see past restrictions Historic, real or imagined
Logical Model Ltd
89
Feelings vs. Analysis

90
Necessary and sometimes sufficient
s way allway s and a 1sstt an d gs 1 eelliin gs e n Fe F mes etiime s m et nd & so m nd & so l2 2 ona tiiona l Ra t Ra
See
Necessary but not sufficient
Feel
Change
T NO s,, NO T n ion s ncllus iod c us on to c s to c o aroun d t un fac s way t fac t er way aro ng fi t pi ng oplle fi he oth er pe Pe o Pe e oth ion Stop pi top th t pt ion S O pt lllled O ed Ca Ca
Analyse
Think
Logical Model Ltd
Change
90
See the writings of John Kotter EG The Heart of Change for further discussion of this topic
Analyse-Think-Change
91
Is not motivational Change fails because of

Fear of failure Lack of a vision of success leading to: We dont try
Is important May trigger the See Feel Change Helps those with a facts and numbers mindset Relies on expressing the problem based on Clear parameters Minimal & explicit assumptions and Unfuzzy future state
Logical Model Ltd
91
Who Drives Change

92
Not individuals with a day-job on a task force Create a team Right people: members are chosen, honoured, respected Problem members are dealt with Senior people are in the team and not outside with a veto Time to do the forceful task Operate as a team Credible, capable, unbiased, baggage free Vision beyond the parochial Inside and outside views Communications and networking, formal and informal authority, planning and control and leadership
Logical Model Ltd
92
Guiding Team
93
Sponsor: Supports, funds, communicates, brings authority Champion: Clarifies, walks the talk, decision maker May be the sponsor Agent: Takes action, shows commitment Change team member Stakeholder Affected Needs to be listen to Needs to be shown the benefits Needs time to assimilate the changes Negative stakeholders resist and impede change Machiavelli: The negative outnumber the positive (at the start)
Logical Model Ltd
93
Engine of Faith
94
Short term wins nourish faith Emotionally rewards the hard work Fends of the critics Creates momentum Visible, in time, unarguable wins Demonstration that shows movement towards the goals g i ng Validate the leaders vision uss n scuss i diisc hen when d atiions Reward the workers ore w uniic at ons ore m un c M M Com m Attract the unconverted Com Defeat the cynics Without small wins: The cynics invade & large scale change fails With small wins optimism grows
Logical Model Ltd
94
Assessing Sponsorship
95
Strong sponsorship Takes a keen interest in programme affairs

Supports, does not have to be chased
Controls the required financial decisions Is able to allocate the resources Manages the areas of the business impacted by programme products Resolves issues when escalated
Sets or strongly influences business strategy Look for key drivers EG Innovative products Time to market Response to competitor activities
Logical Model Ltd
95
Business Threat & Opportunity Uncertain commitment vs. uncertain reward
Business Case is Strategic Risk
Logical Model Ltd
96
Next: Business Case is Strategic Risk

97
1. Risk From Selecting Direction 2. Business Case Opportunity Assessment 3. Handling What Risk 4. Assessment Methods 5. Project Canine: Business Case 6. Project Canine: Financials 7. NPV Net Present Value 8. NPV of Project Canine 9. What Interest Rate? 10. Project Canine: Interest Rate Affects NPV
Logical Model Ltd
97
Risk From Selecting Direction

98
Limited resources mean rationing Opportunity Cost Options forgone Risk that chosen investment is not best available (or even decent!) Might lose your shirt Customer risk The supplier still makes a return A project (programme) is the mechanism of choice for an organisation to transform an opportunity into a benefit*
Logical Model Ltd
*Harris definition of a project
98
Business Case Opportunity Assessment

99
Enables assessment of estimated development cost and threats vs. estimated benefits from the opportunity Ongoing viability assessment throughout the project or programme Quality Criteria States costs vs. benefits (utility) sufficiently for decision making Describes an aligned, politically acceptable initiative
Sources & Inputs Programme planning, Business Strategy, Project trigger (Customer request, regulatory demand, Options/ Feasibility Study, Project Plan: Cost & Timescale)
Logical Model Ltd
Composition Composition Reason Reason Options considered Options considered Benefits v. status quo Benefits v. status quo Key risks Key risks Costs/Time from plans or Costs/Time from plans or constraints constraints Appraisal: Financial & Appraisal: Financial & strategic strategic
99
Handling What Risk

100
Risks arising from choice of what needa assessment by sponsoring group Identify actions to reduce or eliminate probability of threat event Ditto enhance probability of opportunity event Identify actions to reduce/ increase impact of threats/ opportunity outcomes Cost vs. utility assess strategies and actions Actions directed at the event are included in the baseline Plan A Actions directed at the outcome affects are in the baseline as Plan B EG: Goal Happy family weekend afternoon out together
Plan A Lets load the car up and take kids to the beach this afternoon Plan B but if it is raining there is a bowling alley on the sea-front Same petrol needs, variation to schedule (but same start/end), different budget at completion and cash-flow
*Isnt this called programme & project management!?100
Logical Model Ltd
Assessment Methods
101
What makes a change an attractive proposition? Non-financial measures Alignment Utility Financial measures Payback and Payback period Return on Investment (ROI) Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Sensitivity analysis Probabilistic assessment
Logical Model Ltd
101
Project Canine: Business Case

102
We love dogs (utility*)

or
There is no other canine opportunity like this one (prove it!)

or
Canines are our chosen future (utility & alignment)

or
No one has the canine capability we possess (define it) We must not allow canine capabilities to develop elsewhere
or
Felines are out (define it)

or
The dog warden says(utility)
* Utility is a measure of personal, subjective value of some state102
Logical Model Ltd
Project Canine: Financials

103
Is Project Canine worthwhile? Payback (Profit) = Income Expenditure payback period = Point-in-time measure (when do you stop counting?) Payback Period Time required for inflows to equal outflows Normal to impose a payback rule eg within 18mths
About End of October
Year Income Outturn Net Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow 0 0 40 -40 -40 1 0 10 -10 -50 2 5 5 0 -50 3 60 0 60 10
When do the financials matter? When dont they?

Logical Model Ltd
ount ccount is ii , D s ttcc,D iatess ls iimpi t ssmp lisresstrrate e o inttere Too To for in for
103
NPV Net Present Value

104
Interest rates enhance the value of present money Erode the value of future money Received less spent = Net Future Value = Present Value * (100%+Interest Rate)Number of periods PV = FV / (100% + Interest Rate)Number of periods NPV = (PV [all Income] PV [all outgoings]) FV = PV * (1+ip) PV = FV / (1+ip)
Logical Model Ltd
1.33 1.21 1.10 1.00 0.91 0.82 0.75
` `
104
NPV of Project Canine

105
Assume interest rate of 10% p.a. Compound rates for period 0 is 1, period 1 = 1.1, period 2 = 1.21, p3 = 1.331
Year Income Outturn Cumulative Cash Flow Net Cash Flow Present Value @ 10% Net PV@10%
0 0 40 -40 -40 -40 -4.01
1 0 10 -50 -10 -9.09
2 5 5 -50 0 0
3 60 0 10 60 45.08
PV = FV/(1+i)n -9.09 = -10/(1+0.1)1

Logical Model Ltd
PV = FV/(1+i)n -45.08 = +60/(1+0.1)3
105
What Interest Rate?

106
Normally mandated by finance Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Derived from bank or gilt-edge rate (Risk Free) Linked to bank-rate eg LIBOR, Bank of England base-rate Interest rate may vary on a per-period basis Interest rate on income & expenditure may differ
E & D = Value of firm's Equity // Debt E & D = Value of firm's Equity Debt Re & Rd = Cost of Equity // Debt Re & Rd = Cost of Equity Debt V (Capital) = E + D V (Capital) = E + D E/V = % equity finance E/V = % equity finance D/V = % debt finance D/V = % debt finance Tc = Corporate tax rate Tc = Corporate tax rate
Logical Model Ltd
106
Project Canine: Interest Rate Affects NPV

107
As the interest rate changes so does the NPV We know that at 0% the NPV was +10k We know that at 10% the NPV was -4.01k IRR is the interest rate at which NPV is 0 Highest IRR is best financial justification
IRR = 6.72% IRR = 6.72%
+10
12.5 15
No IRR No IRR
17.5
10K @ 0% NPV, k 2.5 0
7.5
10
- 0.34
-10
Discount Rate %
- 3.65K @ 10%
Logical Model Ltd
Two IRRs Two IRRs
107
Strategic Alignment
Logical Model Ltd
108
Next: Strategic Alignment

109
1. 5.1 Strategic Alignment 2. Project Slate 3. Business Planning 4. Adding & Subtracting From The Portfolio of Change Initiatives
Logical Model Ltd
109
5.1 Strategic Alignment

110
The key question is whether an enterprises investment [in IT] is in harmony with its strategic objectives (intent, current strategy and enterprise goals) and thus building the capabilities necessary to deliver business value. This state of harmony is referred to as alignment. It is complex, multifaceted and never completely achieved. It is about continuing to move in the right direction and being better aligned than competitors. This may not be attainable for many enterprises because enterprise goals change too quickly, but it is nevertheless a worthwhile ambition because there is real concern about the value of [IT] investment. [IT] alignment is a journey, not a destination
Enterprise Strategy
Business Functions
Application Architecture
Technical Infrastructure
Sourcing/Staffing
Funding
Logical Model Ltd
* Board Briefing on IT Governance 2nd Ed., ITGI 2003 Section 5.1 p.22
110
Project Slate
111
Corporate objectives
Be Brand 1 Develop Related Products ROCE Value from Customer Base Staff Innovation & Growth
Differentiate product
ID
Product development ability
Automate process
Sponsor
Cross sell to existing customers

Project Manager Impact Date
Values, training & succession

RAG Status
Project Name/Desc
Stock Management Christmas party
1 Dec 20 Dec
Logical Model Ltd
111
Business Planning
112
s 3day s 3day 1mth 1mth
30d 30d 3mth 3mth
100d 100d 1yr 1yr
10m 10m 3yr 3yr
20m 20m 5yr 5yr
40m 40m 10yr 10yr
Vision & Values Goals &

Deliverables
Working in the existing culture
Maintaining the culture & communicating SOFT
Cascade chosen Direction Managing the culture Budget calls for the upcoming objectives in strategic agenda
Selecting strategic options Target culture & values Strategy based on current markets or exit Programme Plan
Envisaging future culture & capabilities
Blue-sky
Delivery to project plan
Project plan fits the real-world Tactical adjustments
Emerging / declining Markets (entry) Business Plan Blue-sky
Blue-sky
Products &
Operations
Deploy/ Operation of status quo
Prepare the people Marketing & training
Product Development Product Refinement
Capacity planning Infrastructure development Long-Range Programme planning Balance sheet Skills needed by Strategic Direction Succession planning
Planning & Tracking People
EVA, Quality Logs, Timesheets, ProgressReports Quantifiable detail Delegated tasks & tests
Steering Committee & Board Reports Project Slate Activities by skill Balancing the matrix
Programme Tactics/ Projects RevEx/ CapEx Skills needed in current market places Recruitment & release
Benchmarking
Blue sky
Blue sky Succession planning senior leadership
Logical Model Ltd
112
Adding & Subtracting From The Portfolio of Change Initiatives

113
Portfolio of change = Best current use of resources
Project B: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment)
e ct v Actiiv e s A ct s t Proje c roje P e ct v Actiiv e In- A In-
Project P -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) Project Q: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) New Project Project B: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) Project V: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) Project S: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) Project T: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment) Project D: -Cost, Resource-Cost, Benefit (eg NPV, IRR, Alignment)
Changes must queue for capacity to be executed & absorbed
Logical Model Ltd
113
Logical Model Ltd are specialists in project management knowledge transfer to your people
114
For further help & assistance Assist@LogicalModel.Net
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Consultancy & training in Basic structured project management Tools and techniques for advanced project & programme management Leading complex projects Recovery of struggling projects Creating & running PMOs Project Risk and Quality Management Using Earned Value Analysis Board briefings on project control & governance
Logical Model Ltd
Continued Dimension Four Benefits Realisation Method training and consultancy PRINCE2 Exam preparation & PRINCE2 use in the real-world Implementing IT Governance using the CobiT Framework Implementing Benefits Realisation & Lessons Learned processes
114
Business Threat & Opportunity Uncertain commitment vs. uncertain reward
Planning Horizons
Logical Model Ltd
116
Next: Planning Horizons

117
1. Clear Goals Vs Ill-defined Goals 2. Certainty In The Plan 3. What Is Different In Each Quadrant? 4. Two Dimensions to Uncertainty 5. Risk: Cost Vs. Benefits 6. Early Estimates: Wide Ranges (Unpalatable Reality?) 7. Planning Horizons 8. Rolling Wave Planning Before/ After Stage Boundary 9. Pre-Approval Lifecycle
Logical Model Ltd
117
Clear Goals Vs Ill-defined Goals

118
Planning requires knowing the end-point Although it is possible to prepare when all we know is a journey is afoot Clarity of goal is a determinant of effectiveness* of plan and planning Reality is that uncertainty and unknown goals impact good plans Good plan reflects reality Very few of use live in the ideal world, many of us plan as if we did When we plan for reality we hide the provision
Hidden provisions are wasteful and normally wasted
Express programme (and project) goals in outcome terms using business language
Logical Model Ltd
*& efficiency: which is only relevant AFTER effectiveness achieved
118
Certainty In The Plan

119
Runner: We have done just exactly this many times before Can plan whole project in detail at the start Repeater: Weve done similar before Can plan but not so far out at so fine a level of detail More chance of the unexpected Stranger: We have never done the like Known to be possible R&D or consultancy could help improve chances of success Alien: No-one has ever done the like before May be possible but not known to be (portions) cannot be estimated, only guessed at
Logical Model Ltd
119
What Is Different In Each Quadrant?

120
Increasing Uncertainty
Unskilled, Inexperienced
Experienced & Skilful

What are the characteristics of each quadrant? Risks, Rewards, Controls, ?
Logical Model Ltd
ct fe affe ct s f ce a ntro ence s controll ffer en d diiffern and co e th d u t o n do th e ecutiion a o How dng,, ex ec How ni ng ex pllan ni p an
Clear Goal
Unknown Goal Where ever we are going it is away from here
Increasing Uncertainty
120 *From Eddie Obeng All Change!
Two Dimensions to Uncertainty

121
Time and experience dictate width of range

Probability
Near term and well understood task (runner) Far term and good understanding Near term and poor understanding
Any Level
Estimate
Cost or Benefit, Time etc

Logical Model Ltd
121
Risk: Cost Vs. Benefits

122
Worst Imaginable Possible Best Imaginable
k Rs k h Riis Hiig h Hg
Best Imaginable Possible
Costs
k Ris k w R is Lo w Lo
Benefits
Worst Imaginable
Best Imaginable Possible Worst Imaginable
Worst Imaginable Possible Best Imaginable

Costs
Logical Model Ltd
Benefits
122
Early Estimates: Wide Ranges (Unpalatable Reality?)

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Probability
123
Design/ Contract Requirement/ Heads of Agreement

Business Winnings Reality?
Concept/ RFP, ITT Quality of Scope Definition

Logical Model Ltd
Quality of Estimate Width: Height 123
Planning Horizons
124
Selection of stages based on planning horizons

Often impossible to plan the whole project in detail due to uncertainty about future work, changing environment and business conditions
Starting up a task Plan the planning
Investigation
Technical work Run to the detailed plan
Technical work Run to detailed plan
Technical work Run to detailed plan Updated Updated Project Plan Project Plan Update overall plan at closure 3rd Stage
Creates the overall plan. Complete but detail decreases with time to horizon The horizon is not far off at this point in the project! Detailed Plan Short time horizon
Project Plan
Detailed Plan Short horizon Refine overall 1st Specialist Stage Detailed Plan Short horizon Refine overall 2nd Specialist Stage
Initiation Stage
Management Stages
Logical Model Ltd
124
Rolling Wave Planning Before/ After Stage Boundary

125
As detailed as is possible with what we know today

Time Now Planning Horizon Far Term Activities
Planning Packages
Work Actuals packages Near Term Activities

Named resources Detailed tasks Final/Definitive Estimates
Generic resources Activities Indicative Estimates

Logical Model Ltd
Generic resources Phases ROM Estimates
125
Rolling Wave Planning

126
As detailed as is possible with what we know today

Time Now Planning Horizon Work packages Far Term Activities Planning Packages Actuals Near Term Activities
Named resources Detailed tasks Final/Definitive Estimates
Logical Model Ltd
Generic resources Activities Indicative Estimates
126
Pre-Approval Lifecycle
127
Identify benefits in order to identify actions to achieve them NOT to justify creation of deliverables
Identify Identify business business drivers drivers Specify Specify benefits in benefits in context context
Analyse Analyse orgtn orgtn
Design Design transition transition
Repeat Repeat Plan Execute Evaluate Plan Execute Evaluate or or realisation plan results realisation plan results Done? Plan Execute Evaluate Done? Repe realisation plan results Plan Plan realisation Project Projectrealisation Execute Execute plan plan Evaluate Evaluate results results
Know the strategic/ Know the strategic/ tactical imperative tactical imperative Know Know required required change change
Identify full(?) Identify full(?) contribution & contribution & cost cost
Logical Model Ltd
Approval Approval Project Plan Execute Ev Approval realisation Plan Execute E plan r realisation plan Project Plan Execute Project Assign Assign Approval realisation Plan Execu plan Approval realisation responsibilities pla responsibilities Project Project Approval 127 Approval Project
Defined, dissected and inter-related
Project And Programme Defined
Logical Model Ltd
128
Next: Project And Programme Defined

129
1. Definitions 2. Portfolio 3. Programme 4. Essentials Of Programmes 5. Definitions Of Project 6. PMIs View 7. Management
Logical Model Ltd
129
Definitions
130
What is A Portfolio ? A Programme? A Project? A Phase? A Work Package A Task / Activity A Product?
ts ponen omponen ts c nt c om siigniifiica nt r gn f ca s or s or he r part heiir par ts y fiit togethe r re t t are t he do the y f t toget e Wha t a Wha How do th How e
mm gramm e d Po a tt And Prrogr ojec An ent? c kes Prroje sP a Ma Whatt Ma ke ame and Diffferrent? d Dif e Wh S he S ame an T he T
Logical Model Ltd
130
Portfolio
131
A collection of portfolios, programmes and or projects What criteria define collection? A common characteristics not related to their goals All delivered from same resource pool All delivered to same client All managed by same senior manager Portfolio challenges Primary issue often rationing based on resource demands Solution (mostly) in sound use of project planning techniques
Portfolio
Programme
Project
Logical Model Ltd
131
Programme
132
A collection of projects (each of which is necessary, but not individually sufficient) that are identified and executed to change the business, inline with a vision that would not otherwise be achievable Greater than the sum of its parts End-point not SMART (because then it would be a (big?) project) Often the projects are required to: (specify &) Build technical enablers, Business enablers AND Bring into use in operations
Logical Model Ltd
132
Essentials Of Programmes
133
Included projects are interdependent Architecture for communications & decision making is crucial Opportunity is expressed in terms of vision or strategy Evolving need: end-point test is are we there yet Planning & management characterised by allowance for uncertainties Definitional uncertainty Requirements instability, unknown-ness or complexity Technical uncertainty New markets or products, technology novelty, (initial) low developer capability Cross-company communication & infrastructure uncertainty Cross company resource and needs drawn-upon to support programme achievement generates politics & poor communications
Logical Model Ltd
133
Definitions Of Project
134
Definition of, and key characteristics of a project A temporary management environment created to deliver one or more products according to a specific business case* A project is the mechanism (organisations choose) by which risk management delivers an opportunity into benefits realisation**
By definition a project has a clearly defined end-point at start-up Otherwise it would be a (small?) programme End-point test: Measurable product acceptance criteria achieved Benefits are enabled but not achieved, Achievement is the CRUCIAL bit*** Typical project sequencing Project 1 (often called Feasibility or Technical Options: define possible end points (& Select one) Project 2: achieve defined, selected end-point Project 3: refine product capability or pricing/ cost model
*PRINCE2 definition **Simons definition ***Wrong if we stop here 134
Logical Model Ltd
PMIs View
135
Logical Model Ltd
135
Management
136
What is management ? What is project management Using status data to make decisions about the best use of resources from this point forward to deliver the products within constraints What is programme management Steering towards the horizon The horizon may never get closer but the coast does
End of the voyage but not the journey
What is portfolio management Balancing resource availability with demands Prioritising & rationing
Logical Model Ltd
136
Roles & Responsibilities
Logical Model Ltd
137
Next: Roles & Responsibilities

138
1. Change Manager 2. Programme Management Team Roles 3. Steering Committee 4. Programme Director 5. Programme & Delivery Manager 6. Business Interface 7. Design Authority (-ies) 8. 1st Phase 9. Design Phase Issues 10. Development Stage Issues 11. Issues In Test Phases 12. Implementation Phase Issues 13. Project Managers Day Job 14. Programme Delivery Managers Day Job 15. Other Roles
Logical Model Ltd
138
Change Managers
139
Change Management Identify the stakeholders extract & share vision of the end-point Forge team & appoint to required roles (part of OBS) Assign responsibilities for technical & management activity (RACI) Project Management Creation of products to enable benefits
ob:: ay jjob y Ms D aoplle Ms De op e m End state specified in product terms at outset or Pg m the p e ss r Pg n the p e s Pj o The t Pjocus o n e proc es ucts) he Programme Management T s t F ocus o th e proc od ucts 1 s F us on th ces pr od 1 oc us on u ces pr Establishing strategies to achieve the vision d F c od 2nnd F oject prod u 2 c t pr o e End state evolving during conduct pr llt pr oj r e su ((resu tand systems Decomposition of strategy into business processes Creation of projects to deliver the products Implementation of products and flow of benefits
Logical Model Ltd
139
Programme Management Team Roles

140
Ownership group to Establish vision normally the companys board Turn vision into strategy often directors or heads of function Oversee conduct of the programme Steering committee Driving force for change Business: normally a single accountable person - Sponsor Programme: causes (rather than specifies) vision, strategy, funding etc to be defined and captured - Programme director Day to day Achievement of the programmes goals - Programme manager Standards and mechanics - Programme management office Management of project managers - Delivery manager Detailed activity to produce the required deliverables -Project managers teams
Logical Model Ltd
140
Steering Committee
141
Typically chaired by the sponsor Decision making forum: Clears blockages (or it is useless) Often source of funding and resources Often comprised those responsible for benefits harvesting Responsible for assuring programme progress towards corporate goals Owns end-point risk Impacted by outcomes and pays for all risk activity Risk taker & decision maker Troubled programmes have ineffectual steering committees & effective steering committees run sound programmes- period
Logical Model Ltd
141
Programme Director
142
Responsible for getting What expressed Strategic thinking Communicates outward from the programme with business community Drives formulation of business vision and strategy Editor rather than author, Conductor rather than violinist Drives steering committee for decisions Decision making authority within delegated limits Secures resources from sponsor/ steering committee/ the line Architect of management team who can ensure:
Design of business and technical architectures Creation of project portfolio Acquisition of solutions
Liaison with internal audit (or other assurance groups)

Logical Model Ltd
142
Programme & Delivery Manager

143
Programme manager Often combined with (else takes instruction from) programme director Responsible for getting How defined: tactical thinking Ensures creation of a programme definition that delivers the strategy Orchestrates or integrates business as usual and project deliveries Oversees programme activity to ensure continued progress Delivery Manager Ensures portfolio of projects meet delivery promises Cross project coordination Oversees the resource pool Cares for dependencies and critical paths PMO Manager: runs programmes internal infrastructure
Logical Model Ltd
143
Business Interface
144
Business Change Manager Coordinates with programme manager & business operational management
Ensures change happens to time-table
Drives the unfreeze, move, refreeze process Senior Users Ensure Subject Matter Experts for each element of the business impacted
Specifying what is wanted Checking at the planning stage that intended quality controls are adequate Performing acceptance activities at hand-over Resolve competing, mutually exclusive demands Prioritise WIBNI from CSF (perhaps) based on Value for Money Representing their constituents not themselves
Logical Model Ltd
144
Design Authority (-ies)

145
Owns the integrity of the business (or technical) architecture(s) Arbitrates trade-offs between products / projects Establishes interface definitions Key elements in change control process Owns protocol for changes to interface definitions Establish product/ domain quality regime Key to tracking achievement (eg via earned value) Interface definition, ownership and change protocol crucial Writer vs. reader : Which population is the one and which the many?
Logical Model Ltd
145
1st
Phase
146
Team just forming, no direction, no processes From the book (qms) procedures need to be bedded in with the people Many programme or project hygiene factors have to be set-up from cold Overhead of setting up the processes makes progress slow Fast but shoddy efforts now may be a mistake Plan the planning: First broad brush plan Respond to pressure for commitment to cost & schedule Set-up processes: establish enough control Communications: reporting & meeting frequency & format Quality: standards to be followed & review process Change control and configuration management Progress tracking, risks management & issues escalation
Logical Model Ltd
146
Design Phase Issues

147
Estimates become capable of greater precision Prepare to renegotiate an affordable balance of wants & needs Team settles down May be some challenging behaviours Gather status data on progress of technical tasks Induct new team members as team grows E.G. testing, roll-out & development staff join the project Timely decision making is key Including within the community external to the project Watch-out for gold-plating and scope-creep Need controls that keep scope quality cost & schedule aligned
Logical Model Ltd
147
Development Stage Issues

148
Hardest to gain real insight to progress achieved Easy to see people busy: 90% complete syndrome Analyse the data & track progress made or lost into the plan Understanding of how quality integrates to project definition & planning crucial to tracking progress Changes in one project or subsystem affect others Vital to control changes with design impact Understanding of architectures and interfaces crucial to controlling cascading chain reactions
Staff joining need induction Unwelcome (admin/documentation) tasks get left aside
Logical Model Ltd
148
Issues In Test Phases

149
Slippage in earlier phases very apparent Configuration management procedures stressed Payback time if they were well established by knowledgeable people early on Technically induced delays can have disproportionate knock-on effects Build resolution activity into the plan Build ability to not need it into peoples mind-set Change control is about compromise and fix Potentially the point at which we identify that what is built is not what the customer wanted
Logical Model Ltd
149
Implementation Phase Issues

150
Within the projects may need to return to directive behaviours As deadlines approach so greater need for one voice to issues command All activity is critical path, slippage becomes irrecoverable Acceptance & approval at milestones hard to achieve Customer/ recipient unwilling to be accountable for risks they cannot judge Implementation manager/ management of change Transition throws up many unexpected issues Cheaper/ faster/ more sensible to be able to cope than design out*
*Unless, for example the product is a Nuclear Power Station 150
Logical Model Ltd
Project Managers Day Job

151
Monitor! What ? And How ? Intra-project Determine actual progress & accommodate variances Identify opportunity and problems Maintain team culture Direct the work through the daily & weekly routine Delegate tasks Manage risk, issue, and change processes Conclude current phase & start the next Constant communications Manage within programmes & integrated teams Report to corporate or programme management Listen and watch the organisation/ programme
Logical Model Ltd
151
Programme Delivery Managers Day Job

152
Monitor! What ? And How ? Inter-project Reflect status in programme critical schedule, products-set & resources Maintain programme work focus Direct the work through the daily & weekly routine Look for inter-project cooperation & contention Inter-project risks Inter-project change Constant communications Manage across the projects & teams Report to sponsors / owners Listen and watch the organisation
Logical Model Ltd
152
Other Roles
153
Project or programme support office Consolidate reporting Provide expertise & tool support Police use of project management process: Carrot & stick Configuration librarian & document control Set-up safe storage for artefacts created Operation of version control tools Guardian of test-beds Administrator of change and issue management processes Project or quality assurance Police use of product development standards Ensure the right people perform the right tests at the right time Independent view of teams diligence and progress
Direct reporting line to senior project or programme management
Logical Model Ltd
153
What do we do ourselves & what do we buy-in?
Deciding The Approach & Structure
Logical Model Ltd
154
Next: Deciding The Approach & Structure

155
1. Make-buy Decision 2. Staffing 3. Staffing Strategies 4. Pros & Cons of Matrix 5. Resources 6. Remote & Virtual Teams 7. Remote Team Results 8. Culture And World View
Logical Model Ltd
155
Make-buy Decision
156
Impacts and outcomes may be created: In-house: our people, skills, resources, management and total risk In-house with contractors: our resources, management and total risk Out-sourced: Risk apportioned as described in the contract Outcomes may be: Made for us: bespoke* solution for unique capabilities in market Adapted to us: variation on a common theme Packaged: we adapt to the solution for cost/ speed benefits
*As in clothing industry where a tailor/ dress maker makes a one-off item to the customers measurements and choices 156
Logical Model Ltd
Staffing
157
Project oriented Matrix Functional
In the line Seconded Out-sourced
Logical Model Ltd
157
Staffing Strategies
158
Projectised Skills pool allocates staff 100% to project Often seen as inefficient
Efficiency is only a relevant comment after achieving effectiveness
Best solution for projects: if benefits come from projects this is the choice
May not be best for the peoples career development
Matrix Staff organized in skill groups along functional lines Functional manager allocates staff as requested by projects Salary budget sits with functional manager Staff have some %age of time allocated to each endeavour May have to balance demands of project and day-job Consistently the worst solution for project delivery
Logical Model Ltd
158
Pros & Cons of Matrix

159
Combines the strength of functional specialisms with cross function teams and efficiency of Senior resource usage Management Needs world class ability in PM to avoid every change running at pace of the slowest bottleneck
Supplies skilled resources & manages career progression Creates technical context (Standards, tools etc). Conducts technical tasks & quality reviews
Strategy
Change Initiative
Business Process
Product Development
Business Transftn
Imtn & Rollout
Ops Support
Project
Runs the project to plan day-to-day Conducts risk, change, resourcing, accounting & review cycles
Project Project
Logical Model Ltd
Plan i/f
159
Resources
160
Programmes use significant levels of resource Drawn from the line Shared (bottleneck resources) common in legal, product development, operations and marketing functions Programme initiation must secure line commitment to resourcing activities Programme manager/ directors job to ensure delivery against commitment Resourcing includes those to run the programme plus user obligations Project managers depends on business functions to carry-out tasks Task management by those who may have no idea how to set-up or monitor progress Programme manager must escalate failure to meet obligations When taking staff from the line or from outside the organisation Ensure induction activities to communicate goal, role & processes
Logical Model Ltd
160
Remote & Virtual Teams

161
Corporate geography means teams often physically dispersed Communications is the make and break of change initiatives Dynamics of designing solutions means band-width must be high during solution identification and selection Architectures & interfaces key to successful management of communication needs Management best-practice say co-locate people & uses MBWA* Co-location and MBWA can both be virtual but bandwidth suffers As bandwidth decreases so time to transfer increases Time spent on verification & error-correction increases Mixing world-views means both frustrations and the possibility of break-through solutions soar
Logical Model Ltd
* Management By Wandering About (Physically or virtually) 161
Remote Team Results

162
Group vs. team A team shares a goal Each member relies upon the others 1 + 1 + 1 = 4 in a team 1 + 1 + 1 = 2 in a group Define purpose, process, behaviours Purpose: Goal Process: working practices that accommodate behaviours Behaviours: Differing world-views result in differing approaches Establish appreciation of benefits of differences Build trust Identify potential for frustrations and means to defuse It takes lots of time plus a travel and subsistence budget
Logical Model Ltd
162
Culture And World View

163
Sequential vs, Synchronous Time is too important to waste, focus on one thing at a time, be on time Many things at once and when I get around to it, whenever Doing vs. Being What you achieve Who you are and who you know Open vs. Closed Feedback is useful and to be encouraged Feedback is enforced criticism/ loss of face Personal space: up-close vs. wide Diameter of ones personal space Speech: Interrupt vs. gaps Over-talking is normal Waiting for others to finish speaking is good manners
Logical Model Ltd
Rules based vs. relationships The organisation is about rules and consistency The organisation is about community and support Solo vs. Delegation Individuals can make decisions for us all Delegates gather and report back Management as infallible Managers know the answers Managers do not (have to) know the answers Formal vs. Informal Use titles, expect expertise to follow hierarchy, be respectful Use names, discuss and challenge Business with family or strangers Business after social Social after business
163
Contracts and subcontractors
Procurement Of Goods And Services
Logical Model Ltd
164
Next: Procurement Of Goods And Services

165
1. Assignments & Contracts 2. Complex 3. Procurement Process 4. Contract Types 5. Typical Contract Problems 6. Monitoring
Logical Model Ltd
165
Assignments & Contracts

166
Managing procured results is just the same as for in-house results(!) Statement of Work or Outcome plus constraints & reporting needs = contract or PID or work-package Performance to contract = achievement of outcome Specification of want is PBS Dictionary and/ or WBS Dictionary Agree scope and quality, plan tasks & risk, execute, monitor & control, close Make or Buy (MoB) analysis Cant build a WBS past the MoB decision Takes time & costs money to ask the question, select and manage a supplier
More time & cost to manage two, three, many
If suppliers have interdependency make one prime Ensure your contract to the prime makes them accountable
If success, not blame & damages matters ensure the contracts are two-way
Logical Model Ltd
166
Complex
167
Use the professionals You wouldnt write software or lay bricks Focus on agreement that is mutually beneficial Read the contract Dont let any we would never use it clauses remain PMs job is to get it done, not do it
Logical Model Ltd
167
Procurement Process
168
Well known cycles Plan your purchasing activities Send-out enquiry Request for quotation RFQ Invitation to tender ITT Request for proposal RFP
Receive responses possible 1-Specification exceeded, 2-Fully met, 3-Can be met, after a bidders-conference 4-Cannot be fully met, 5-Capability absent Insist on a standardised response format & weightings Relegate explanation to an appendix
RFP: Tea brewing Outcomes required Tea available for not less than 100 people per hour Service availability to be 0700 to 2300 M-F Tea available in 4 varieties All 100/hr able to select any combination of varieties Serving temperature to be over 95o Equipment foot-print not to exceed 1m2 Staff training in all aspects of operation not to exceed 4hrs Maintenance to be provided not less than semi-annually Call-out and MTTR not to be more than 2hrs
Rating
Short list Review their financials, QMS & its use plus other customers opinions
Logical Model Ltd
168
Procurement Process
169
Best & final negotiations Establish payment points (cash-flows) linked to triggering quality control Retentions, liquidations, bonds and bonuses Selection & signing Contract requires & is made by offer, consideration & acceptance Contract law is complex dont attempt to manage without expertise Execution, monitoring & control Ensure contract type matches need to evolve or vary (or not) the specification during the contracts life-time Legal closure Premature Through meeting of terminal conditions Inform the other party formally
Logical Model Ltd
169
Contract Types
170
Fixed price The supplier takes all the risk (& should have opportunity) Should be the most expensive contract type Cost-reimbursable Costs incurred plus profit margin Purchaser takes all the risk Suppliers incentive may be to inflate the job All things equal should be the cheapest contract type Time & Materials (T&M) Mix of the above: eg Fixed labour rate with variable number of hours Gain-share/ pain-share All contract types can include incentivisations
Logical Model Ltd
170
Typical Contract Problems

171
Failure to understand all the assumptions each side made Flexibility of interpretation of contracts Too much is as bad as too little Sub-contractor over bidding its capability Are not skilled enough to meet the contract terms Are not resourced enough to meet contract terms
Logical Model Ltd
171
Monitoring
172
Base monitoring on your & their experience of each other Write the right to audit into contracts Go see them, in person, regularly if their performance is important Monitoring can be relaxed if suppliers maintain good audit trails, are open and performing to needs Monitoring (& resultant decision making) must be quicker and more frequent if audit trails are missing, untrustworthy, unavailable or show (negative) variances
Logical Model Ltd
172
From planning at programme down to Planning at project level The length & the depth of planning
Techniques For Planning
Logical Model Ltd
173
Response to Strategic Risk & Planning Uncertainties The length of time view
Life-cycles, Stage Gates And Governance Through Approvals
Logical Model Ltd
174
Next: Life-cycles, Stage Gates And Governance Through Approvals

1. Gates 2. Purpose & Conduct Of A Gate 3. Programme Architecture: Gates Event & Time based 4. Project Internal Architecture 5. Project Decision Points: Granting Approvals 6. Authorities 7. Levels of Programme Control
175
Logical Model Ltd
175
Gates
176
What is a gate
Why have then
How many different types
Where to put them In the programme In the project
Logical Model Ltd
176
Purpose & Conduct Of A Gate

177
Gather all available data at the level of certainty that is competent and cost/ time effective Decide if we are ready to move on given the uncertainties that remain
Assess performance to date: maturity of artefacts appropriate to move-on safely Preparedness: plans plus controls means status will be visible to decision makers
Controls will provide decision data in timely enough manner to issue directions
A gate is the operation of risk assessment (it doesnt happen elsewhere it is done here) Management group at each level owns the process of risk management Next level up owns threats & opportunities: @ the sharp-end of acceptance Next level down at the sharp-end of taking actions to enhance or reduce
Logical Model Ltd
177
Programme Architecture: Gates Event &
178
Programmes need event based & routine gates (projects dont) Research Extend Infrastructure
Research
Build Infrastructure Build product Deploy to BAU Research Product Research Build product
O pe Deploy to business rat io na Train people
O pe r
at
io n
ab ilit y Deploy to business Train
al
st
Cutover
ls ta bi lit
Cutover op Q1
Q2
Q3
Logical Model Ltd
Q4
Q1
Q2
178
Project Internal Architecture .

179
CoPM
Starting Up a Project
Approval
Approval Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage ControllingEscalating a Stage Handling Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Issues Issues, & reporting RFC status Minor Adjustts
Initiating a project Define Quality, then Create Project Plan Refine the Business case cost time & Risks Establish Controls equal to Risk
Approval Approval PjBd Approval ApprovalControlling a Stage Planning for exceptions or next stage Update Project Plan Review Business Case & Risk log Ask permission to continue
Appoint Exec & PM
Handling Issues, RFC
Escalating Issues & reporting status
PjM
Design & Engage Project Team
Minor Adjustts
PMs daily monitor & review

Authorise, track & receive completed work
Closing A Project All OK? (Acceptance) What next?
Describe: Goal, Approach, Risks & Deliverables
How did we do?

Accept new work & Team Planning
Create Approval Plan BC Pack (& Rolling Development Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 Wave Plan?) Decide tools & Product Based format Planning
Accept new work & Team Planning Managing Do the work Product Managing Hand over the products Delivery Ltd Logical Model Managing Product Delivery Activity Based Product Estimate Delivery Schedule & Assign Planning Resources Resources
Do the work
TM
text
Hand over the products
Respond to risk in plan
179 descriptive Add
Project Decision Points: Granting Approvals

180
Method plus gates = Governance Approval to investigate the idea Approval to invest in qualifying the business case Approval to proceed to each visible horizon Approval to proceed when changes arise
Change whose possibility was foreseen or not Change that is optional, mandatory, positive or negative
Approval to close the project

Prematurely Completion of development Transfer of assured benefits stream to BAU
Key to gating process is to ask ready to move on? NOT Done everything planned to date?
Logical Model Ltd
180
Authorities
181
Direction of the market, regulators etc Unprecedented Unlimited decision Departmental & precedented decisions Technical architecture within delegated limits Realisation decisions within project limits As-built within teams limits
Mandated externally Board
Directors
Mandated corporately Market place design Programme/ project constraints Business design Programme/ project interpretation Technical design
Heads of Function Programme Management Project & Team Management Technical & Operational Expertise
Logical Model Ltd
181
Corporate Management
Levels of Programme Control
182
Programme Management Team Project Board Up a

Starting Approval Approval Controlling a Stage Initiating a Controlling a Stage Escalating Controlling a Stage Appoint Project Exec Handling Controlling a Stage project Controlling a Stage Issues Controlling a Stage Define Quality, & PM Issues, & reporting then Create RFC status Project Plan Design & Minor Refine the PMs daily Engage Adjustts Business case monitor & Project Team cost time Approval Approval Approval Controlling a Approval Planning for Stage exceptions or next stage Update Project Closing A Plan Project All OK? Review (Acceptance) Business Case What next? & Risks review & Risk log Establish Describe: Goal, Authorise, track & receive Ask permission How did we Controls equalt to continue Approach, Risks completed work do? to Risk & Deliverables Create Approval Accept new work & Team Planning Managing Do the work Pack (& Plan BC Managing Product Delivery over the products Managing Stage Hand Development Product Delivery Decide tools Product Based Activity Based Estimate Schedule & Assign Respond to Add descriptive Product Delivery Plan?) & format Planning Planning Resources Resources risk in plan text
Handling Issues, RFC Escalating Issues & reporting status Minor Adjustts
Project Board
Approval Approval Approval Approval Controlling a Stage Handlin Escalating Issues g & Issues, reporting RFC status Minor Adjustt s Planning for exceptions or next stage
Starting Up a Project
Approval
Approval
Initiating a project
Appoint Exec & PM
Define Quality, then Create Project Plan
Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Controlling a Stage Handling Issues, Escalating Issues RFC & reporting status
Authorise, track & receive completed work Accept new work & Team Planning
Design & Engage Project Team
Minor Adjustts
Update Project Plan
Closing A Project
Do the work
Refine the Business case cost time & Risks
PMs daily monitor & review
All OK? (Acceptance) Authorise, What next? track & receive completed did we do? How work Accept new work & Team Planning Do the work Hand over the products Respond to risk in plan Add descriptive text
Review Business Case & Risk log
Project Manager
Describe: Goal, Approach, Risks & Deliverables
Establish Controls equalt to Risk
Ask permission to continue
Team Manager
Logical Model Ltd
Plan BC Development
Create Approval Pack (& Stage Plan?)
Do the work Managing Product Delivery Managing Product Delivery Managing Hand over the products Schedule & Assign Resources
Decide tools & format
Product Based Planning
Product Activity Based Planning Delivery Estimate Resources
182
The only reason for a project is to change businessas-usual for your organisation or your customers
183
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
183
The depth of time view
Project Control And Technical Development Cycles
Logical Model Ltd
184
Next: Project Control And Technical Development Cycles
185
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
Method Steps In Planning: Overview Relationship of Process Groups Development & Management Stages Complex Project Coordination Project Coordination Within The Programme Planning Levels And Involvement For The Teams Programme Breakdown From Vision to Project Levelled Plans Interfaces Between Project Teams Plans Within Plans & Handoffs from Plan to Plan Programme Architecture Managing Through Dependencies Verification & Acceptance Verification Scope Verification Occurs Throughout The Project
Logical Model Ltd
185
Method
186
What is a Method ? Why have a framework What are the benefits Who gets them and when and how
Investigation Creates the overall plan. Complete but detail decreases with time to horizon Run to the detailed plan Run to detailed plan Run to detailed plan Technical work Technical work Technical work
Starting up a task Plan the planning The horizon is not far off at this point in the project!
Updated Project Plan
Updated Project Plan
Detailed Plan Short time horizon
Detailed Plan Short horizon Refine overall
Detailed Plan Short horizon Refine overall
Update overall plan at closure
What are the costs Who pays them, when and why What are Job Descriptions? Same questions
Logical Model Ltd
186
Steps In Planning: Overview

187
Needs or Objectives Needs or Objectives Strategic Risk Strategic Risk Deliverables Deliverables Bill of Materials & Quality Description Bill of Materials & Quality Description
Prog Pr r or S ogramme or S A amme ..A.. P ro e Projj c ect t Scope
Development
Proj Projec ect t
Resourcing Resourcing
Schedule Estimating
Dependencies Dependencies
Task List (WBS) & Task List (WBS) & Work Assignments (OBS) Work Assignments (OBS)
Schedule Baseline Schedule Baseline
Scope & Responsibility Scope & Responsibility Baseline Baseline Response to Response to Tactical Risk Tactical Risk Finalised Finalised Cost/ Time/ Scope baselines Cost/ Time/ Scope baselines
Cost & Resource Estimating

Cost Baseline Cost Baseline
Monitoring, Tracking Monitoring, Tracking Logical ModelControl 57 07 & Control57 (Quality) & Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 (Quality)
Logical Model Ltd
187
Relationship of Process Groups

188
5 stages of a project and of a phase (programme adds harvest) Initiate, Plan, Execute, Monitor & Control, Close*
Executing/ Develop Planning/ Define Initiating/ Decide Closing/ Deliver
Activity
Monitoring & Controlling
Logical Model Ltd
* p.68 A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), 3rd edition 2004, Project Management Institute
188
Development & Management Phases

Planning Initiating Executing Executing Planning Closing Controlling Controlling Planning Controlling Planning Executing Controlling Planning Executing Controlling Closing Executing Executing
189
Planning Controlling
Investigation
Design
Build
Integrate
Accept
Deploy
Maintain
Go/No-Go Go/No-Go Go/No-Go Go/No-Go Go/No-Go Go/No-Go Plan Closing Initiating
Executing Planning Initiating Planning Controlling Closing
Executing Planning Controlling
Executing
Controlling
D B I A
D B I A
D B I A
D B I A
D B I A
Logical Model Ltd
189
Complex Project Coordination

190
Work steam
Work stream
Work stream
Work stream
Work stream
Work stream
5
Logical Model Ltd
190
Project Coordination Within The Programme

191
Strategy Commercials
Identify Opportunity
Qualify Opportunity
Bid for Opportunity
Negotiate Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Change Initiative Business Process
Initiation
Programme Plan
Concept
Architecture
Design
Training Design
Validation
Integration
Product Development Business Transftn

Implementation & Roll-Out
Infrastructure Architecture
Design
Construction
Validation
Operational Support
Applicatoin Architecture
Design
Construction
Validation
Operational Support
Preparati Test Specifications on
Conduct tests
Customer acceptances
Release
Operational Support
Operations Support
Design for Support Specification
Create Support infrastructure
Operational Support
Decommission
Logical Model Ltd
191
Planning Levels And Involvement Context Business For The Teams

Pgm Team Sponsor PM Programme Project Deliverables Work Packages Work Packages Work Packages Deliverables
192
Shareholder
Competition
Vision Goals Goals

Logical Model Ltd
Regulators
Team Leaders 192
Customer
Goals
Programme Breakdown: From Vision to Project
193
Logical Model Ltd
193
Levelled Plans
194
1st plan an outline at programme/ strategy level of products Establish major schedule, cost & function cascading constraints About commitments and authorisations
Definitional uncertainty until lower level plans produced
2nd plan activity at each subsidiary levels within constraints Define resources, tolerances & buffers to protect critical sections
Look for critical chain of resourcing, schedule, risk Be ready and able to accommodate under & early as well as over and late
Escalate imbalance between schedule, cost & scope up to programme
Subsidiary Plan
Subsidiary Plan
Programme Plan
Subsidiary Plan
Subsidiary Plan
Logical Model Ltd
194
Interfaces Between Project Teams

195
Draw-off of specialisms from functions Skills & tools focus plus customer and end-point focus Senior Management Great when well implemented Significant challenges (more later)
Strategy
Change Initiative
Business Process
Product Development
Business Transftn
Imtn & Rollout
Ops Support
Commercials Project Managt Business Process Business Change Implementation & Roll-Out Service Support
Identify Opportunity Qualify Opportunity Initiation Concept
Bid for Opportunity Design
Negotiate Ts&Cs Training Design Design Design Validation
Systems Engineering
Project Project Project
Programme Plan Architecture
Integration
Preparation
Infrastructure Architecture Applicatoin Architecture Test Specifications
Construction Construction
Validation Conduct tests
Operational Support Operational Support Operational Support Operational Support
Validation
Customer Release acceptances Create Support infrastructure
De- commissi
Logical Model Ltd
195
Plans Within Plans & Handoffs from Plan to Plan

g doiing on ds d nee ds ee t n ha Wha t W
196
WBS
Work Package 3
OBS
R A C I
Work Package 2 Work Package 1

WBS
Activities
t do iit do to ned to ed g sig n as i s as s iis Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) o Who Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 WhModel Logical Responsible AccountableLogical Model Ltd Consulted Informed
rk etwo rk two N ns N e atiions to c niica un Comm u omm C
196
Programme Architecture
197
Same crucial need in both cases Architecture or allocation Know the interfaces/ protocols for message passing!
Commercials
Identify Opportunity
Qualify Opportunity
Bid for Opportunity
Negotiate Ts&Cs
Project Managt
Initiation
Programme Plan
System Enging
Concept
Architecture
Tooling
Detailed Design
Validation
Integration
Software Engineering
Software Architecture
Design
Construction
Validation
Operational Support
Hardware Engineering
Hardware Architecture
Design
Construction
Validation
Operational Support
Product Delivery
Preparat ion
Test Specifications
Conduct tests
Customer acceptances
Release
Operational Support
Through Life Support
Create Support infrastructure
Operational Support
Decommission
Investigation
Design
Build
Integrate
Accept
Deploy
Maintain
Investigation
Design
Build
Intgt
Acpt Build
Dply Intgt Acpt Build Dply Intgt Acpt
Maintain
Dply
PMs territory Technical Specialist
Invgt
Dgn
Build Invgt
Intgt Dgn
Acpt Build Invgt
Dply Intgt Dgn Acpt Build Dply Intgt Acpt
Maintain
Dply
Maintain
Logical Model Ltd
197
Managing Through Dependencies

198
Programme Plan
Team Plan Team Plan
On Schedule Early
Team Plan
Team Plan
Team Plan Team Plan Team
Late
Team Plan Team Plan
Logical Model Ltd
198
Verification & Acceptance

Planning Executing Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Executing Planning Controlling Executing Planning Initiating Controlling Controlling Executing Planning Executing Closing Controlling Planning Controlling Planning Controlling Executing
199
Requirements
Design
Build
Integrate
Accept
Deploy
Maintain
Go/No-Go Closing Initiating
Plan
Verify Scope (via quality techniques)
Logical Model Ltd
199
Verification
200
Built it right & well Intermediate / structural: the construction process
Process Inputs Process Definition
Faults List
Process Definition Verification
Process Checklist
Process
Check
Conform 2 Spec
Milestone Achievement
Do
Process of evaluating that products produced by a process meet the conditions imposed on the process
Logical Model Ltd
Process Outputs
200
Scope Verification Occurs Throughout The Project
201
If outcome of each of 8 stages is 90% correct, how cumulatively correct is end product? What do we need from our internal acceptance process?
Need
0 10 21 0 1 1 1
100 90 81
Logical Model Ltd
Project
72 63
Phase Boundaries
54
Satisfied need
Scope creep is uncontrolled expansion of programme work beyond budget Commonest cause is pride in a great job
201
Creating Programme Plans
Planning at Programme Level
Logical Model Ltd
202
Next: Planning at Programme Level

203
1. Planning A Programme 2. Key Programme Phases 3. One: Identify Projects 4. Two: Project Interdependency 5. Three: Project Planning 6. Four et al.: Confirm Programme Fit
Logical Model Ltd
203
Planning A Programme
204
Same fundamental tool-kit as planning a project Focus differences Programme goals develop and change as projects are executed May need feasibility and study projects to formulate the goals Building blocks are project deliveries, therefore interdependencies Project slippage has knock-on effects that have to be overcome Output of programme planning is schedule of linked projects that deliver business enabling change Programme plans move the organisation from a stable state to a new stable state Sometimes repeatedly
Research Extend Infrastructure Product
O pe
Research Build Infrastructure Build product
ra
tio
na l
Research
ilit y Deploy to business
st ab
Build product Research Build product Deploy to business Train people
Product
Train
O pe
Cutover
ra tio na l
st ab
Cutover op
ilit
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Logical Model Ltd
204
Key Programme Phases

205
1. Establish business plan: expressed as a vision or: 5 year plan, Strategic direction 2. Create the programme plan (4 steps) 1. Break vision into products and capabilities 2. Establish inter-dependencies 3. Create project delivery plans
Business in-the-line plans, IT plans, product plans, marketing etc
4. Confirm fit with programme constraints 3. Execute the plans Monitor and adjust Re-plan to reflect changing reality 4. Collect benefits
Logical Model Ltd
205
One: Identify Projects

206
Step 1: identify the programme impacts Assign impacts to suitably scoped projects Programmes gain projects in two ways Existing projects assimilated by programme formation
Must detach from original sponsor Otherwise (and often do) continue to run to hidden agenda
Projects created in the programme

Well defined deliverables, skills base and dependencies
Aim for the simplest set Minimum number of interfaces Establish vendor supplied components as projects Brainstorm the outcome breakdown structures Use affinity techniques to scope projects (Work breakdowns) Use Organisational Breakdown Structure & RACI to assign responsibilities
Logical Model Ltd
206
Two: Project Interdependency

207
2nd step: Assess interdependency between projects Managing dependency is often the programmes major challenge Interdependency results from Need to use the products of one project as input to another NOT sharing of resources such as test bed or individual with rare skill
Resource constraints are modelled using Gantt charts and resource histograms
Common impacts Risk or issue with footprint that affects multiple projects
EG reliance on event external to the programme
Sign-off, budget allocation or board approval Use dependency network diagram techniques to sequence project phases
Logical Model Ltd
207
Three: Project Planning

208
3rd programme planning step is project planning Programmes requirements outlines project goals & constraints Business architecture, Required product set, Major milestones Rough-cut financial and resourcing limits Project teams plan the achievement of goals within constraints Affirm or escalate challenge to practicality of programme plan Projects use PBS/WBS, network diagrams, Gantt charts and resource loading charts to establish schedule & budget
Logical Model Ltd
208
Four et al.: Confirm Programme Fit

209
4th step: Confirm projects fit within programme plan Calculate programme critical path Assess resource loading Calculate programme cash-flow and earned value curves
Contingency, risk reserve and management reserve
5th Baseline projects Scope, schedule and costs 6th Move projects into execution, through delivery Programme repeats steps 1 through 4 periodically As each stable state is achieved As issues force re-planning As dictated by authorised programme changes
Logical Model Ltd
209
Acceptance, handover and close-out for programme and project
End Points Quality is Scope is Quality is
Logical Model Ltd
210
Next: End Points Quality is Scope is Quality is
211
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.
Scope and Quality Programme & Project Scope Expectations & Acceptance Criteria Specify & Accept Quality Drives Activity Measuring And Estimation Of Quality Attributes Example: I Want A Fast Car Product Descriptions Work Packages Deliverables Sign-Off of Deliverables Close-Out Works Bottom-Up Product Close-Out: Handover
Logical Model Ltd
211
Scope and Quality

212
What is Scope? ) Describes what must be produced ent ( m t tement (lliimiit ) Sta tem Sta Everything that must be delivered of want of want to resolve the need Everything that must be done to create all deliverables What is Quality? Conformance to specification, fitness for purpose, ... Scope and quality are tightly coupled
odness o odness iits of g o m ts of g Liim L

Logical Model Ltd
212
Programme & Project Scope

213
Programme
Need
Project
Phase Boundaries
Product (satisfied need)
Scope is All the things or outcomes that we produce

To satisfy a stakeholders needs or wants Including intermediate deliverables
All the things we do

Logical Model Ltd
213
Expectations & Acceptance Criteria

214
What are expectations? What are acceptance criteria? Conformance to specification: Customers duty to specify want or need Teams duty to achieve specification Fitness for purpose: Customers true goal Impossible for the supplier to guess Excite & Delight: Source of repeat business
ld shou lds hou t ct s rojjectremen ts o e i emen No p r equ ir No p r equ d r cee d exce e ? ex ed re e d ? A g re Ag
Quality might be: Balance between the totality of characteristics that bear on real (stated and implied) utility Customer quality interest right thing product Supplier quality interest things produced correctly process
Logical Model Ltd
214
Specify & Accept

215
Acceptance is at project end Based on conformance to specification (c2s) Programme end may be the c2s or transfer of stability into BAU Suppliers need is specification before activity Do it right first time Customer interest is fit-for-purpose (ffp) Contract settles whose risk the match between ffp & c2s is The two are different The difference is profound Caveat emptor Specification is at project start (vision at programme start)
Logical Model Ltd
215
Quality Drives Activity

216
Activity focussed on quality products Quality products resolve all stake holders needs Focus on both project (process) and product quality Crucial to understand quality at the planning stage Never enough time to do it right, always enough time to do it again Plan the tasks to produce results right first time Specification before planning makes projects easy(-ier?) We must know what a good result looks like if we are to confirm achievement Achievement required to confirm performance to plan: tracking Value for money
Logical Model Ltd
216
Measuring And Estimation Of Quality Attributes

217
Functional specification is common and relatively easy

Text, diagrams and specification languages
Good quality specification is rarer & key to determining cost & schedule
Scale & tests to measure Best required & worst acceptable Current & target value (& achievement date) Best possible (State of the Art)
Convergence of Scope & Quality

Captured in the WBS dictionary
Logical Model Ltd
217
Example: I Want A Fast Car

218
How much should we budget & schedule for this project ? Detailed Requirements: Boy racer impressing his friends on the street
Scale: Test: Worst Acceptable: Target Best Required State of the Art Acceleration Time taken to achieve 60 mph from standing start 8 seconds 5 seconds 4 seconds 3.6 seconds
Logical Model Ltd
218
Example: I Want A Fast Car

219
How much should we budget & schedule for this project ? Detailed Requirements: Attempt on World record for wheeled vehicle
Scale: Test: Worst Acceptable Target Best Required State of the Art Miles per hour Maximum average speed achievable over measured mile 760 mph w 800 mph know tt kno n don 800 mph ou dothe Y ou Y the edulle 750 mph ue d
Logical Model Ltd
h r sc he sc stt o r nttil co s o u n il co u now u k now yo u k e yo th e a h criiteria teri t nce cr a e pttanc acce p acce 219
Product Descriptions
220
Product Breakdown Structure Dictionary Provides detailed description of product to be delivered Agreed with the customer May be beyond the customers ability to specify Key elements Composition & derivation: Component parts & their sources
Links to product breakdown structures and project plan
Acceptance criteria: Scales, and acceptable ranges on the scales

Links to progressive gauging of product maturity levels & tracking progress
Method of confirmation: How the measurement will be performed Skills & pre-requisites: Who will measure and with what equipment
Logical Model Ltd
220
Work Packages
221
Work Breakdown Structure Dictionary Details the activity to produce one or more products (or impacts) Includes product descriptions : what the results of required activates are Interfaces between these products/ impacts and other project results Project controls to be applied: how to measure progress to completion, escalate issues and perform configuration control What to do at completion Product development standards to be applied Specifies how (processes, standards, verification, acceptance, handover of) the products/ impacts are created
Constraints on process made explicit before scheduling & budgeting Quality planning (selecting standards), predominantly a supplier focus
Logical Model Ltd
221
Deliverables
222
End point when (final) deliverable* accepted by the customer Deliverables not necessarily physical: change in the state of the world Everything required by all stakeholders to declare the project successful (IE includes controls) One definition of scope == The deliverables, all the deliverables and nothing but the deliverables Other is Tasks, all the tasks & nothing but the tasks (to produce the deliverables
Links customers right thing done & suppliers thing done right
Logical Model Ltd
Or result or business impact
222
Sign-Off of Deliverables
223
Sign-off often difficult if: Receiver unclear of consequence where unseen faults may still exist Not competent to judge the deliverable Sign-off against the warranty and support capabilities Sign-off says Risk assessed and acceptable, not everything perfect Sign-off without correct evidence is potentially fatal mistake Quality control must have created the audit trail Sign-off is an easy process if pre-requisite project control processes correctly executed Sign-off triggers implementation and close-out
Logical Model Ltd
223
Close-Out Works Bottom-Up

Project Management LifeCycle
224
Initiation & Planning
Approval
Execution & Control
Acceptance
Closure
Close-out work-package (Acceptance of a Deliverable) Establish Goals & Deliverables May close phase E Identify Work May close a & stage s Dependencies t i May close a project m Establish a May Resourcing programme close a t
i
ID Stakeholder & Responsibilities
Tracking Quality Control Reporting Change Control
RePlanning
Production handover Benefits Realisation CloseDown
Quality Assurance
Lessons Learned
Do not set perfect close-out criteria & Issue Risk n Budget Management g Tolerances, deviation correction and waivers
Set-up Controls
Logical Model Ltd
224
Product Close-Out: Handover

225
Handover of all configuration items May also include the configuration management procedures Help desk and support need to know how to respond to user needs Expect highest volume of interaction in initial period and at milestones in successive teams schedules Confirm acceptance of project deliverables by all those who will live with them
Deliverables used to generate benefit! Sponsors starts benefits harvesting (often) Post project, is within the programme
Logical Model Ltd
225
If you need training, mentoring or assistance with benefits realisation, governance or projects
226
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
226
Activities at Handover (Technical & Business)
Logical Model Ltd
227
Next: Activities at Handover (Technical & Business)
228
1. Project Implementation 2. Repeated Disruption 3. Roll-out Planning 4. Implementation Steps
Logical Model Ltd
228
Project Implementation
229
Critical impact on the business High visibility Biggest (often newest) stakeholder community Big test for effectiveness of management of change activities Use your best people Those who can be most diplomatic Start of investment payback time Programme or line management become responsible for benefits realisation activity New activities; high probability of problems Implementation options have different risk profiles Big-bang, pilot, phased
Logical Model Ltd
229
Repeated Disruption
230
A programme may roll-out change a number of times Disruption, risk and visibility means focus area Expect progress to fall-off in other programme areas post implementation, but also: Be prepared for easy implementation & swift programme resumption Complex and risky: so plan thoroughly: include flexibility No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy Prepare well, well in advance Do not expect Plan A to be enough Have slack capability to prop-up problem areas
Logical Model Ltd
230
Roll-out Planning
231
Careful and complete planning needed Learn lessons of previous roll-outs (checklists or external help) Establish the prerequisite for installation Technical & business environment Product status, staff training Authorities and accesses (logical and physical, business and technical) Data migrations Roll-out timings are critical to minimising disruption Perform practice roll-outs Ensure implementation plan identifies Key personnel by name including contact and alternate contact details Go/no-go decision points and criteria Back-out procedures and point of no return details
Logical Model Ltd
231
Implementation Steps
232
Train the business users Change Managers biggest focus area Not just procedure & technical training but also acceptance of change Run model office to create/ confirm business functions Perform user acceptance test Deploy system to operational use Help-desk and maintenance teams Business units use new facilities and start benefits realisation Programme moves onto next set of projects or closes Resources must be balanced between support & fix vs. progress Business doing it differently Expect teething troubles (perfect takes time & money to refine) Provide support (cheap & simple but NEEDS to be explained)
Logical Model Ltd
232
Preparing The Business To Absorb Change
Programme Deliveries
Logical Model Ltd
233
Next: Programme Deliveries

234
1. Business Training 2. Model Office 3. Acceptance Testing 4. Recommended Approach 5. Install Time Issues 6. Roll-back & Contingencies 7. Help Desk And Warranty 8. Business Implementation Issues
Logical Model Ltd
234
Business Training
235
Requires stable version of procedures (often IT systems) Integrated forms, roles & responsibilities, business process Create trained user pool for users acceptance testing For a large roll-out use the train the trainer approach Create regional, product, branch, departmental, internal or external expertise Timing an important issue
Too early is wasted, too late is worse
Point at which many new stakeholders make first impression Management of change issues can be greatly aided by winning-over staff at this point Frequently an issue (possibly make or break) for programmes (Machiavelli again)
Logical Model Ltd
235
Model Office
236
Establish capability for whole business process Testing, training & all resources to support full product life-cycle Business led function Business should plan tests with programme & customer staff Job roles and all transaction types tested
Start with the ones required on day one
Data clean-down and refresh operations available (SCMs role) Issues with which version of the processes (EG IT) to use Latest versions often contain flaws Stable versions may lack features Model office sometimes maintained after implementation for training, data maintenance, test of fixes & features
Logical Model Ltd
236
Acceptance Testing
237
Acceptance is: Validation: built what was asked for Decision point for roll-out A demonstration that the system meets requirements Customer satisfying themselves that the acceptance criteria have been met Acceptance is not a defect detection exercise Confirmation that sign-off is safe should be based on the audit trails from lower level testing activities*
Logical Model Ltd
*As should the PMs assessment of achievement 237
Recommended Approach
238
Validate Goal or Objective Validate Goal or Objective Concept Concept Validate Spec Validate Spec Requirements Requirements Interfaces Interfaces Design Design Integration Integration
White box Subsystem Unit Unit Black box Unit
Black box
System
Acceptance Acceptance
System
System Test System Test
Subsys White box Subsys
Subsystem
Fabricate Fabricate
Review or Inspection
Item Test Item Test

Unit
Logical Model Ltd
238
Install Time Issues

239
Users unprepared for delivered change Forms, process, customer scripts, IT elements changed since training Training omitted some functions (eg how to access resources/ consumables) Key users missed some or all of training Speed (typically slower in production than model office/ training) IT Data conversion Timing to convert data frequently needs special attention Development team often get diverted from on-going programme projects to support implementation bugs Predictable risk: plan for it Installation foot-print too big for resources available Failures increase demands on team
Logical Model Ltd
239
Roll-back & Contingencies

240
Ensure we can go back to how we did it yesterday or stop-gap measures are on stand-by for major (visible) functions Verify back-out processes as part of implementation planning Aim is to ensure that business capability is preserved Roll-back decision points must be clearly described Criteria for decision Stakeholders involved Consider variations in needs of departments & functions Critical sites or users Novel configurations (extra business or technical complexity)
Logical Model Ltd
240
Help Desk And Warranty

241
Create a production hand-over procedure and checklist Involve support staff in programme quality reviews Use maintenance personnel in fault identification and resolution processes from late system test onwards Maintain a support presence on-site during immediate post roll-out phase Maintain an event log of help desk calls to aid problem resolution Bring business functions into the second-line support to handle how do I? calls Ensure that reported faults are assessed and status communicated to originator
Dont set expectations that faults will be fixed Raise to change board for cost benefit analysis
Support teams need roll-out too Training in development processes, configuration management as well as system architecture & functions, strong and weak points
Logical Model Ltd
241
Business Implementation Issues

242
True business impact [will always be] different from expected No alternative but to select (plan?) best impact resolution at time Prepare probability reduction with thorough risk analysis Reduce uncertainty with prototypes (eg model office) If high risk then select pilot roll-out Loss of programme focus Staff reassigned before finished with Business stakeholders focussed on coping in the line Plan accordingly
Negotiate partial release or call-back process
Logical Model Ltd
242
Caring For People & Process When Closing Down Initiatives
Logical Model Ltd
243
Next: Caring For People & Process When Closing Down Initiatives
244
1. Delivery Closeout 2. Project Close-Out 3. Programme Closure 4. Detecting Programme End-Point 5. Programme Closure Triggers 6. Lessons Learned
Logical Model Ltd
244
Delivery Closeout
245
Conducted for each delivery Publicity for programme deliverables Internal to the business: e.g house newspaper, notice boards, intranet External to the business: press releases, brokers and trade Evaluate post-installation business strategy Support needed for benefits harvesting Review product set against operational reality
Identify gaps
Plan next set of programme products Delivery 1 often minimal function (time to market drive) Delivery 2 often market differentiation (functional drive) Delivery 3 often perfective / adaptive changes
Logical Model Ltd
245
Project Close-Out
246
Closeout actions Release staff

Complete appraisal or career development activities
Close budgets & accounting codes Archive records

WBS, estimates and matching actuals Risk logs Anything with legal significance Discard everything else
Write End Project Report When not in a programme (or perhaps even when) ensure benefits realisation arrangements are in place Hold the end of project celebration
Logical Model Ltd
246
Programme Closure
247
Programme closeout involves Similar activities to project closeout Standard closeout activities Close time recording and general ledger codes Terminate contracts and make final payments Conduct lessons learned Archive useful information and dispose of rest Release staff, write appraisals Hold the party
e e Closure Closure
RePlanning RePlanning
Production Production handover handover Benefits Benefits Realisation Realisation CloseDown CloseDown
lity Assurance lity Assurance
Reintegration of staff to the line or move to next programme project Seconded staff may have gone native or roles are filled
Logical Model Ltd
Lessons Learned Lessons Learned
247
Detecting Programme End-Point

248
Often over the horizon Precise closure-criteria within the projects As projects deliver the questions are What does the market-place look like? Can the business absorb further change What is the cost/ benefit of the next project wave? Have we done enough?
Logical Model Ltd
248
Programme Closure Triggers

249
Natural closure Last required product is in benefits realisation Research projects conclude ROI insufficient to continue Or Programme lapses into maintenance activity Closure just an administrative change: programme becomes department or function Premature closure: Steering group terminates programme Outcomes no longer relevant or not delivering promised benefits
May be management of change issue Political or technical capability lacking
Programme no longer aligned to strategy

Legislative, competitor or customer actions Share price and interest rate changes Mergers and acquisitions
Logical Model Ltd
249
Lessons Learned
250
Make responsibility of project managers starting-up projects, not of those closing down Bigger WIIFM Improving corporate capability What worked well Processes needing institutionalising Processes needing improving Removing bureaucracy that does not add value Lessons learned activities are a key enabler of organisational improvement
r ate r lls llat e aii s de t de t a to ow o How t H
Logical Model Ltd
250
If you are interested in instructor led training we would be pleased to discuss requirements
251
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
251
Who Matters & What Do They Want?
Stakeholder Management
Logical Model Ltd
252
Next: Stakeholder Management

253
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Purpose Of Stakeholder Management Sources Of Conflict Programme Conflict Identifying Stakeholders Influence Diagrams Management Strategies Changing Stakeholders Communication Flows Communications Plan
10. Programme Identity 11. Programme Publicity
Logical Model Ltd
253
Purpose Of Stakeholder Management

254
Identify who to focus communications time and effort on Those who can make or break initiative Create the communications links appropriate for stakeholder groupings Sponsor/ User have obligations as providers too PM has information needs too
Controlling
Establish and communicate the vision Establish benefits realisation responsibilities Open dialogue with line management Secure cooperation and resources
Directing
Identify Gather Stakeholders info
Planning
Implement Strategy Predict behaviour Strategy to manage
Identify interests Strengths Weaknesses Organising
Starts in initiation & continues until programme closure Motivating
Logical Model Ltd
Project Management: David Clelland p164 ISBN 0-07-012020
254
Sources Of Conflict
255
Politics: More impact the programme has the more change in power More politics and stakeholder management required No politics suggests no impact Power bases are increased or eroded Culture or personality clash Different views on how we do it here Day job versus programme demands Incompatible schedule or workload pressures Conflicts and infighting Competing objectives in different business units Differing view of best business or technical solution Unclear roles and responsibilities: gaps or duplications
Logical Model Ltd
UD FUD
255
Programme Conflict
256
Initiation is the time to identify (resolve?) conflicts When not resolved then build recognition of impact into the plan Tie issues to business objectives & values not personalities Understand how stakeholders feel objectives are threatened Instil many alternate routes to success that I would not have chosen Negotiate: how can we both win: Focus on outcome not method/ position Alternatively: Use conflict to drive programme aims Conflict is the mother of much energy & inventiveness Slow progress is caused by poor initiation but Symptoms seen during execution Treatment takes time, costs effort: plan for it Good initiation may look like (and be) a slow start: benefits see later
Logical Model Ltd
256
Identifying Stakeholders
257
All those affected by the programme & projects Primary: responsibility to the programme, formal linkage Secondary: strong interest without formal linkage Individuals who influence business direction & prioritisation Assess the interests of each stakeholder Expectations of the programme Ability to promote or detract from programme goals People who perceive a lose or a gain: perception is reality
Sabotage
Uncooperative
Logical Model Ltd
Neutral
Apathetic
Support
Project politics consists of keeping those who dont like me/the goal away from those who257 have not yet made their minds up - Project management proverbs
Influence Diagrams
258
Identification & analyse tool

Who influences who
Interest Predictability H H Clarity M L H Power & influence
Capture stakeholder interaction

Influences, influenced by
Can record synergy and antagonism Often recorded in a stakeholder matrix

Interest H M L H Power & influence
Interest Predictability H H Clarity M L H Power & influence Interest Predictability H H Clarity M L H Power & influence
Change
Predictability H Clarity
Against Neutral For Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
258
Management Strategies
259
Organise those pro the programme Give them facts to promote the programme Use those pro the programme to convert the undecided Look-out for those with power or influence not on the radar Dont inform those hostile to the programme Wake the sleepers Dont allow some stakeholders to realise late on that programme impact affects them, get them engage early
Logical Model Ltd
259
Changing Stakeholders
260
Stakeholders change over time Stakeholder management process should be constantly identifying, analysing, planning, monitoring and controlling Programmes span the business over longish time periods Likelihood that stakeholders will change during the programme Promoted into or out of programme stakeholder group Be prepared with induction pack History, status, major tenets Make time to listen to them carefully Include into existing stakeholder analysis & management plans Understand new stakeholders perspectives Day job versus programme interest (conduct and impact)
Logical Model Ltd
260
Communication Flows
261
In: to support execution & management of the programme Out: to support governance of the programme Broadcasting to the organisation to keep all affected but less involved stakeholders in contact with programme status
Key success factor
Up: Decisions needed vs. authority limits Status reports Typical for upward flows to be wrong content
Those steering should not get PM info
Down: Decisions made, directions given Requirements Typical for downward flows to be wrong content
Those steering should not dispense technical dictates
Logical Model Ltd
261
Communications Plan
262
Successful projects have good communications Good = Basis for decision making and assigning actions
? have ? ave ou h do y ou use? oy ls d What do they need to know e? too s too lsones to us to ns s cat o iicatiionwhiich one ch un Who tells them m t omm unsellect wh t c m ou hat c oo you se ec W ha d o y When W w d Ho w Ho How How many times & How often to repeat
Who Needs To Know
Sponsor/ User provide goal, constraints external political view
Logical Model Ltd
262
Programme Identity
263
Programme participants are key stakeholders Have their own WIIFM Simultaneously watching the programme and their career in the line Successful programmes provide a sense of (tribal) identity Programme staff need something to bind them to outcome Drafted from across differing business streams & loyalties Sense of belonging, sense of purpose Visibility to rest of the organization Brand-name & logo Memorable (can be an acronym) Encapsulate the product, impact or customer values of the programme The mug, tea-shirt, pen, mouse-mat is not a waste of funds
Logical Model Ltd
263
Programme Publicity
264
Programmes should be publicised Briefing sessions for important stakeholders (across organisations) Broadcasts for the general employee base In-house newspaper, intranet, posters in canteen and lifts, notice boards Include Why the programme exists (link to strategy or business plan) What business impact it will have (link to personal fears) Major milestones in programme achievement (link to visibility) When the impacts will start to be visible (link to rhythm of the business) Answers audiences fears uncertainties and doubts
What is in it for me? (link to personal reasons for giving support)
Show small wins on a frequent basis (ditto)

Logical Model Ltd
264
Workshops for Stepping into the future and Defining Quality Expectations
From Goal To Deliverables
Logical Model Ltd
265
Next: From Goal To Deliverables

266
1. Breakdown Structure 2. Start With Products End with Tasks 3. PBS Example 4. Breakdown Structure Rules 5. Guidelines For Construction Of A PBS
Logical Model Ltd
266
Breakdown Structure me o me c uttcoonss o cttion d o ulicensei(License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Licensed for individual use without fee. re d A commercial e uiire be aac oicce e h oi eq u l rreq willl b a cch he el i e tthe vvel wavve a Change initiative s p iisom le lssh a o p t om le e l h T o t t evveNeed T ot le Outcome B o id--l (satisfied need) B M id M
BS BS Quality Quality
Functional Functional NonNonFunctional Functional Definition of all whole Definition of all whole programme/project scope programme/project scope
267
Specialist Specialist
Process Process Standards Standards Product Product Standards Standards
Management Management
Ditto Ditto
Logical Model Ltd
267
Start With Products End with Tasks
268
1st Step is Product (impact) breakdown structure Allows agreement between change initiative & customer on WHAT 2nd Step is to identify expertise in HOW Identify the tasks that create the outcomes Product oriented work breakdown structure
Not useful for team management in this grouping
3rd Re-group the elements as required for control Organisational Breakdown for resourcing Cost breakdown for financing & budgeting Phase breakdown for schedules and timings Same process for programme, project, phase or task
Design
Del1
Task
Fred
Logical Model Ltd
268
Product Oriented WBS Example PBS

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied n
269
w dow n ak reak do B re d B ente iientedre Or uct Ortructu re ct S tructu Prod u S Prod

1
Accounts System
2
f do sed of o se comp o omp Is c Is

3
Payables
Receivables
Statutory Reporting
2.3
Bank Reconciliation Central Bank

4.1 4.2
1.1
1.2
2.1
2.2
Pay Roll
Trade Creditors
Trade Debtors
2.1.1
Invoice Matching Aged Debtors
Supplier ML
3.1
Design Invoicing Design Invoicing
Invoicing
n ow kdow n ea k d ) Br ll) Br ea e ev e kL askL ev T as Made or Achieved by k ((T 2.1.2 Made or Achieved by or Wor k W
4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3
A/C Balances
Variance Report
2.1.2.1
2.1.2.2
2.1.2.3
Design
Build
Review
Design
Build
Review
Design Variance Design Variance Report Report
Verb Model Ltd Logical Verb Noun Noun
269
Breakdown Structure Rules

270
Each level is exactly 100% of item above No sequence is explicit within the diagram
Although is often implied
Parent
No 1-2-1 links No Fan-in
ent
ar
Bottom level is labeled using verb-noun (Analyse Requirements) or noun-verb (Requirements analysed)
Invoice Bank Rec Payables
One
One
Logical Model Ltd
Design
270
Guidelines For Construction Of A PBS

271
1. Start with Goal and the customer/ users Decompose the goal in-to (major) deliverables (external, persistent products) Brainstorm all the products that must be produced to keep all the stakeholders happy
Probably done during the goal setting meeting Involvement key to creating ownership, belief and motivation
Identifies the skills needed to conduct further planning
PBS Project
Deliverable 1
Deliverable 2
Logical Model Ltd
Deliverable 3
Staff 271
Breakdown structures, product descriptions and work-packages
From Deliverables To Activities
Logical Model Ltd
272
Next: From Deliverables To Activities

273
1. Deliverables 2. ALL The Products = ALL The Tasks 3. WBS 4. Guidelines For Construction Of A WBS 5. Here Be Monsters 6. Phase Oriented WBS Example 7. Organisational Breakdowns 8. WBS & Other BS 9. Breakdown Structure Guidelines
Logical Model Ltd
273
Deliverables Business Context

274
Company Context
Shareholder Directorate Need Competition Constraints PM
Benefits Stream
Pgm Team Functional Mgmt Operations 274 Staff Business Change PM PM
Project Plan, Reporting & Status
Team Leaders Project Team Leaders to project Project Plan, Team Status Reporting & Leaders The Team The Team Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 The Team Projects Customer
Logical Model Ltd
Regulators
Internal Deliverables
Deliverables
ALL The Products = ALL The Tasks

275
Crucial first step Identify all results: deliverable including projects internal deliverables Include temporary or throw-away deliverables Prototypes, mock-ups, test-rigs, stubs & drivers, scaffolding & jigs Include management and quality products Progress reports, lessons learned & problem diagnosis Risk and issue reviews, assumption analysis, communications plans, resource acquisition Work (i.e. Tasks) are derived from PBS Dictionary Include specification of the Grade or Quality required
Logical Model Ltd
275
WBS
276
Identifies the tasks to produce deliverables Structured as Hierarchical decomposition Indented list WBS Dictionary key for Quality Criteria
t ucct od u d rrodnteed P e nt PBS Project P ie Orri O
Deliverable 1
Deliverable 2 B or Wo F
Deliverable 3
orr W s o kks s Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 Ta Ta s
rkk
Logical Model Ltd
276
Guidelines For Construction Of A WBS

277
2. Identify the tasks May be a separate session needs people with technical skills Brainstorm the tasks required to produce deliverables
Involvement key to creating ownership, belief and motivation
Group the tasks - often requires moving from deliverable based view to responsibility (OBS) or lifecycle phase based view Resolve placement of common tasks such as documentation, QA & reporting based on which BS view being taken
PBS Project
Deliverable 1
Deliverable 2
Deliverable 3
A
L
Logical Model Ltd
277
Here Be Monsters
278
Development of the WBS means identification of activities Activities encompasses ALL those required to build the outcome PLUS Check the outcome conforms to its product description Correct non-conformances Report on the status of results PLUS Actions to prevent non-conformances or to capitalise on opportunities
Threat and opportunity (aka Risk) management happens* while building the WBS
Plan A Also need to include within the WBS all activity that is dependant on a risk event Plan B: only to be used if the linked risk (threat or opportunity) occurs When done right risk management is done here*
Logical Model Ltd
* This is a part not the whole 278
Phase Oriented WBS Example

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial licensewn (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied n
279
do w reak do eak B d Br ente iientedure r t re eOr as O Struc Phas e Struc tu Ph

1
Accounts System
x.x.2
Grouped in time with Grouped in time with

x.x.3 x.x.4 x.x.5 x.x.6
Concept
1.1 1.2
Design
Build
Assemble
Review
Rework
Technology Search
Evaluation Criteria
3 2.1 1 2.2 2.3 4 3 2.1 1 2.2 2.3 4 1.1 1.2 4.1 4.2 1.1 1.2 4.1 4.2
Design Design Invoicing Invoicing

2.1.2 2.2 2.3
Build Variance Build Variance Report Report

2.4 2.5 4.2
All Review All Review Tasks Tasks Design Variance Design Variance Report Report
2.6.2
Receivables
2.1.2.1 2.1.2.2 1.1 1.2 4.2.1
Logical Model Ltd
279
Organisational Breakdowns
280
Delegating responsibility for scope-of-outcome to project participants Resourcing perspective An alternative, concurrent view of project scope Who reports to who Who takes direction from who Beware: If ALL communications follow the OBS then the project will fail through lack of communication Communications maps best created with SIPOC or the Precedence network
Logical Model Ltd
280
WBS & Other BS

281
Each BS is a different perspective

Requirements Deliverable 3 A C C B F J
PBS Project Design D E K
In phase Responsible for

Build G H I L A B C D E F G H
Reports to
Analyst
PBS Project
Deliverable 2
B F K G J
Programmer
OBS Project
Design
Del1
Deliverable 1
D E
Pgmr
I J
Tester
A H
K L
Logical Model Ltd
281
Breakdown Structure Guidelines

282
7 plus or minus 2 items wide Depth to reflect your level of control IE the point at which you delegate responsibility for further detail Probably 2-4 levels down Chain of delegated authorities will result in conceptual, total programme BS being many levels deep
Logical Model Ltd
282
Constructing Network Diagrams Forward & backward passes, float and its significance
From Activities To Critical Path
Logical Model Ltd
283
Next: From Activities To Critical Path

284
1. Tasks In PDM/ Network Diagrams 2. Mechanics Of Critical Path Calculations (Finding where are our scheduling options) 3. Precedence Diagram Method 4. Calculating Float (Aka Slack) 5. Adding The Imposed Constraints 6. Calculating Dependencies 7. Just in Time
Logical Model Ltd
284
Tasks In PDM/ Network Diagrams

285
PBS Project
Deliverable 3
Lowest level of WBS used in network model Programmes building blocks are project phases, Projects are work-packages Results in schedule
Deliverable 1
Deliverable 2
Logical Model Ltd
285
Mechanics Of Critical Path Calculations

(Finding where are our scheduling options)
286
Longest of all paths through the planning-packages Shortest time to complete the work Path with zero float/slack time Can be multiple parallel critical paths
Earliest Start = 0 5 0 0
5 5 0 7
5 6 5 7
11 Earliest Finish 11
11
Latest Start = 4
Logical Model Ltd
11 Latest Finish
286
Precedence Diagram Method

287
Network diagram shows dependency & independence What can or cant be done concurrently 1st pass ignores discretionary dependency such as resource limits or customary work practices Dependencies are logical relationships Cannot start until (depends upon) predecessor finishes (or starts) . Task 2 cannot start until task 1 has finished May start after Task 2 may start (any time) after 1 has finished
Start
Task 1
Task 2 Task 4
Task 3
Finish
Logical Model Ltd
287
Calculating Float (Aka Slack)

288
Float is flexibility Network shows date options Gantt shows date selections
Go our Y
TF =0 Critical Path 13 EF=18 G 5 18 13 LF=18 13 H 3 15 18 16
A 0 Dur = 3 LS=2 5 Total Float >0 0 5 B 5 0 5 Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07
ES=0
FF >0=TF 3 5 5 5
C 5
D 3 9
Logical Model Ltd
FF =0=TF 10 10 13 E 3 10 10 13 FF=0 < TF(4) 8 8 11 F 3 12 12 15
288
Adding The Imposed Constraints

289
When dates are imposed the network helps right to left planning Conduct a forward pass Set the end or mid-term milestones dates Plan back from dates using a backward pass Remove negative float by using project speed-up options
1 0 -3 1 A 1 -3 -2 -2 1 3
4 B
5 -3 2 4 2 6
5 2 4 6
6 C
11 -3 8 11 6 2 8 8 2 F 13 -3 10 10!
3 D
2 E
Logical Model Ltd
289
Calculating Dependencies
290
Pour EF i Tea LF
ES Add j Milk LS
Create ES j Design ES +2wks FireEF j Watch LF
Finish-i permits start-j Normal Relationship
Start Early
Finish
ES Gather i Spectn LS EF Welding i LF
Start-i permits Start-j Late Commonly an optimisation of a more detailed underlying set of F-S relationships Finish-i permits Finish-j Rare. Usually end of monitoring activity Start-i permits Finish-j Rare. Usually handover on acceptance There is no timeline in a network diagram
Logical Model Ltd
ESOps i Support ES
EF Project j Fix-on-fail LF
290
Just in Time
291
I am cooking Christmas dinner Inspection suggests the turkey will be ready in 2hrs time When should the par-boiled potatoes go in the oven to roast and so be ready for serving at the same time?
Cook the Turkey
F-S
Scheduled to finish at Servings start Start = finish duration Roast Spuds

Par-boil Spuds
F-S
Serve dinner
S-F
Im receiving expensive, delicate equipment It must be installed in a purpose built facility on arrival for its safety Finance have insisted purchase is as late as possible
Prepare facility Deliver Kit ALAP
F-S F-F ALAP
Install Kit
Logical Model Ltd
291
Determining Resources Needed To Achieve The Critical Path
From Critical Path To Resourced Schedule
Logical Model Ltd
292
Next: From Critical Path To Resourced Schedule
293
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Network Diagram To Schedule Gantt Resourcing And Levelling Resource Gantt To Resource Histogram Using Scheduling Options Resource Levelling Bandwidth Analysis Crashing & Fast Tracking Management Analysis Cumulative Resources & Timing WBS + Resources & Dependencies = Schedule & Cumulative Cost & BAC Cash-Flow Cash-Flow Patterns
Logical Model Ltd
293
Network Diagram To Schedule Gantt

294
0 0
1 A
1 1 0 1 1 1 6

4 B 3 D
2 3 4
5 0 5 4 5 9
5 5 4 9

6 C 2 E
8 9
11 0 11 6 5 11 11 11
2 F
14 15
13 0 13
Period
Task A B C D E F Duration 1 4 6 3 2 2
10
11
12
13
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
Logical Model Ltd
2 1 1 1 1 1 1
294
Resourcing And Levelling

295
Applying resources to the perfect schedule normally results in unacceptable peaks and troughs of work Smoothing or levelling Removing the peaks & troughs by using float (slack) When float is insufficient to remove peaks and troughs the end date is moved to accommodate resource availability Resources are key constraint on most programmes Task starts are delayed waiting for suitable resources Change is Resource Constrained Programmes should focus on bottle-neck resources Not necessary at programme level to level every resource, is at project level PMs will escalate resourcing difficulties
Logical Model Ltd
295
Resource Gantt To Resource Histogram

Task Duration
296
Period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A B C D E F
1 4 6 3 2 2
1 A 2 2 B B 2 2 1 D D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Resource 3 Usage/ Period

2 1
D E B B E B B C C C C C C
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Logical Model Ltd
F
12
F
13 14 15
Period 1
296
Using Scheduling Options

297
The first cut dependency model provides best-case schedule Only schedule determinants are those things that CANNOT be avoided Second cut adds the reality Discretionary constraints whose resolution is too painful EG Resource constraints, Accepted corporate how we do it here Established by the culture, context and Governance framework Open to challenge via the OBS/ Roles & responsibilities framework Float (slack) defines the cheapest options to pay for reality Levelling is the process of reducing demand to the limit of capacity or increasing capacity to the level of aspiration Assess the organisations band-width
Logical Model Ltd
297
Resource Levelling
Task Duration
298
Period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A B C D E F
1 4 6 3 2 2
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Resource 3 Usage/ Period

2 1
Maximum of two resources available for this project
D D D E B B B B E B B B B C C C C C C
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Logical Model Ltd
F
12
F
13 14 15
Period 1
298
Bandwidth Analysis
299
Assess demand & supply for key resources >60 to 80% generally a problem
Resource Units
Res-1 Available Demand Res-2 Available Demand Res-3 Available Demand
Jan Feb Mar Apr May 30 20 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 6 8 10 12 10 2 3 3 3 4 0 1 1 1 3 88 86 84 78 78
Time
Logical Model Ltd
299
Crashing & Fast Tracking

300
Use of float may be insufficient to achieve targets Tasks may be speeded up by adding resource to them (normally) the addition of cost Crashing Projects and programmes may be speeded up by relaxing dependencies (normally) adds risk of finishing even later or of requiring greater crashing Fast-tracking Speeding up change normally adds large amounts of concurrency Concurrency is a driver for setting the appropriate control regime
Logical Model Ltd
300
Management Analysis
301
How much management does the programme need?
Different work profiles create differing management needs
ls? nt r o oontrols? tc ojec rroject c tp ffec aaffect p es rofil pprofiles hese ootthese wd Hoow d H
F-S -50%
Logical Model Ltd
301
Cumulative Resources & Timing

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied 24
302
20
15
10
5 3 2 1 A 1
B B B B D D D E E B B B B C C C C C C F
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
D D D E B B B B E 1 A B B B B C C C C C C F 3 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Logical Model Ltd
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
302
WBS + Resources & Dependencies = Schedule & Cumulative Cost & BAC
303
st, ittwilllalllco st, a l co what i wil he lly we know whaale: whatttthe know c t Fina lly we Fina esscale: wha er wha tim ovverwhatt timeflow looksslike. . ke o hcassh-flow look li i e negattvve ca t al o b e nega i w musstalsso be u s lo ii ii e ca h-f l w m e possttvveca sh-fsoness Cassecan n The po i The Bu siness Ca cas he tthe Bu o modelled sso gful DCFssand NPV s odelled anin ul DCF and NPV m ai conttan me aningf con in me
Logical Model Ltd
303
Cash-Flow
304
Projects spend money continuously Revenue expense (OpEx): once spent it is gone
Shown in the Profit & Loss or Income & Expenditure Salaries, consulting, travel, consumables
Capital Expense (CapEx): Once spent leaves an asset behind

Shown in the Balance Sheet and Asset Register
May earn money Stage payments for projects from customer Benefits from deliverables Out-flows and inflows equals cash-flow Timing & volatility important to the finance/ treasury function Must be discounted (DCF) for programmes run over the longer term
Logical Model Ltd
304
Cash-Flow Patterns
305
Programme may receive new money on periodic basis May just be cross-charge of staff-hours
Common reality
Theory
Borrowing Reqt
Logical Model Ltd
305
Estimating
Logical Model Ltd
306
Next: Estimating
307
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Nature of Estimate? Psychology Assignable Causes & Random Variation Three Parts To Any Estimate Achieving Accuracy Responses To Uncertainty Budgeting the Uncertain Budget Allocation Improved Estimates
10. Improving Precision Over Time 11. Define Levels Of Precision 12. Approaches And Techniques 13. Estimating Approaches 14. Top Down Versus Bottom Up 15. Estimating Techniques 16. Parametric Estimates 17. Analogous Estimates
Logical Model Ltd
307
Nature of Estimate?
308
Different from a guess Lack of precision: fact. Lack of accuracy: incompetent Used for rationing & coordinating A collection of data, not a number Comparison or formulae used to derive final quantities Assumptions and sources of input values Margins for error or tolerance Scales upon which the estimate rests Values on the scales (Minimum, Maximum, Median, Mode, Mean, Standard Deviation, Budget, Contingency (and finally!) Reserve)
Logical Model Ltd
308
Psychology
309
Student syndrome When the time is too long what do we do? If I say 5 and I take 4? If I say 5 and take 6? Ill say 6 and keep my mouth shut when it is 4 If you expect to start after me, on Wednesday & Ive done my bit by COB Monday? If I dont ask are you on schedule??
Logical Model Ltd
309
Assignable Causes & Random Variation

310
Actual results inexactly match estimates due to variances Variances result from random cause or specific cause Sign your name 10 times Imagine someone bumps into you on 1 signature Risk/ contingency process should account for assignable causes
Estimating basis & range must account for random variations

Upper Tolerance Limit
Out of tolerance
Logical Model Ltd
310
Three Parts To Any Estimate

311
3 Parts of a budget in any quantity (Time, money) 1. That part derived from the core of the work to be done 2. That part allowed for as random variations natural to the process and product May be possible to define cause & effect but we choose not to Minor, often many in number both good and bad 3. That part allowed against specific causes of variation Potential problems (& opportunities) that we can identify and assess probabilistically not deterministically Risks! Forth element may be reserves against unexpected Can only be a guess
city Veloocity s / Vel ile ==Mile s / k M s o wr ttowoorkc-lightts h rive affi D i The D rive Trraffic-lig rrann he T T y duuetto a i nt e o d ++Delaay e to aaccde ntidayys Del du to cci ide ol da s e chool-h oli l y du ++Delaay ue toosschool-h De d 311 t up d--up due ee --Sppeed S
Logical Model Ltd
Achieving Accuracy
312
Estimates are uncertain but can be guaranteed accurate Educate stakeholders to understand range & confidence Educate stakeholders to understand continuous elaboration Promises (IE certainty) WILL include a premium for risk Someone must make visible provision for uncertainty somewhere in the projects baselines
Hidden contingency cannot be managed and is habitually wasted Make uncertainty explicit and place allowances under control
Quote & justify the budget, the confidence level, the contingency provision and reserves separately Establish the process for refining estimates over time Iterative application of techniques with feedback loops
Logical Model Ltd
312
Responses To Uncertainty
313
Tolerance allowances An allowance for natural variations in process execution When not cost effective to describe causes enough to be assignable No cost-benefit from making process more capable Contingency budget An allowance associated with restoring alignment between status and plan after an identified and assessed event becomes certain (funding Plan B) Relates to an assignable cause Only consumed* if the event occurs Change budget (philosophically just part of contingency) An allowance for allocation against a modified plan Funding for a new set of future intentions and / or new end point
Logical Model Ltd
* In the case of the event being the trigger to an opportunity we may release resource313
Budgeting the Uncertain

314
Allocated budget What we know we know The iceberg that sank the Titanic Core work done or in progress plus contingency after a risk event is inevitable Unallocated budget Things we know we do not know If the iceberg could have been avoided (Between horizon & impact) Core work not yet started, Contingency for Plan B that might not be needed Reserves Things we dont know we dont know The iceberg before the Titanic was launched on her maiden voyage
Margin Reserve Rsve
Contract Price Contract Budget Baseline (CBB) Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) Distributed Budget Distributed Budget UDB Distributed Budget Undistributed Budget Undistributed Budget
Control Account Budgets Control Account Budgets Control Account Budgets
Logical Model Ltd
Work packages Completed Work
Completed Work Packages Pkages Planning Packages Plang Work packages
314 Margin
Budget Allocation
315
What we should budget is based on required confidence Weighting normally 4 so # terms normally 6 E = (Best + 4ML + Worst) 6 80% = 50% + (Worst Best) 6 95% = 50% + (Worst Best) 3
50% or expected = ((Best + (Most likely * Weight) + Worst) / # terms)
When allocating the task give the minimum of ML & e
1SD
Logical Model Ltd
6 SD
315
Improved Estimates
316
Quality of estimate indicates natural variability of underlying process Indicated by the ratio Contingency : Budget 2 : 16 (1 in 8 or 12%) worse than 0.3 : 16 (1 in 50 or 2%) 1:10 or better*: 1st SD = +30% & 2nd SD = +15% Between 1:5 and 1:10 1st SD = +20%, 2nd SD = +10% Anything worse (1:3, 2:1 etc) requires return to the WBS to decompose the task Likely the task includes a discrete risk that is distorting the estimates Worth investing effort to improve estimate
Logical Model Ltd
One SD
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
* Better eg 1:20 or 1:100
316
Improving Precision Over Time

317
Range narrows & skew changes over time

D D eta es il ig ed n
e 1SD
Max
St ar tup P D reli es m ig in n ar y
At start-up
After design
Po st -f ac t
6 SD
Max Most Likely Min
Most Likely
Cross-section at start-up
Min
time
Cross-Section @ Detailed Design
Logical Model Ltd
Improvement over time 317
Define Levels Of Precision

318
Rough Order of Magnitude Estimate must be interpreted as between upper and lower limits Budgetary Reduced range Definitive Final range
ROM
hi i g e tthnng sam e m n he t i aantthe sa heirr e e ly m e E ms n y m AGRE ! h rrmsoonlif we AGRE E t e te e a nc e Thesse tveryyone if wn advvance! nd e e e r one h T to ve i in ad 40% aand e finittoons i i ns Logical Model Ltd to s 0% de fini e ROM aas 40% e se ROM 40 % d t ee 40 o + 400 u mi h s ooumigghtit ass--40tto + Y Y I see it a e
Estimate
time
318
Approaches And Techniques

319
Always use a combination to cross-validate 1 with another
Approach estimating either top down or bottom up Cross-check one with the other Generate the values using analogous and parametric techniques Answers may be quick but rough or higher precision later Gather data from all sources and pass to experts and verify with peer-groups Qualify assumptions and detect biases Always generate three point estimates Optimistic, Pessimistic & Most frequently occurring Calculate budget and confidence levels
Logical Model Ltd
319
Estimating Approaches
320
Top-down: If it is 1m thenlooks like 300k for B, OK? Bottom-up: Looks like B is plus plus
1m 400k
Deliverable A Deliverable B Component B.1 Project
200k
Deliverable C
100k
Deliverable D Component D.1
Component A.1 Component A.2 Component A.3

110k 125k 75k
Component C.1 Component C.2
Component B.2
Component B.3
Logical Model Ltd
w St eakdo rreakdown rk B Component D.3 Component B Woork C.3 W
uct Strruct re nComponentuD.2
ur e
320
Top Down Versus Bottom Up

321
Strengths and weaknesses with both Top-down Produced early Often created by analogy with previous efforts
Aided by estimating histories (Documented details of last time)
Lacks precision, based on little concrete detail Cheap, quick, simple, simplistic, Bottom-up: Increased precision Not available early in project More expensive and time-consuming to create Capable of greater precision Project uncertainty based on uncertainty described per task
Logical Model Ltd
321
Estimating Techniques
322
Analogy Extrapolation of previously observed results to a new situation All estimating is analogous (otherwise it would be a guess!) Identify similarities and differences between historical data and current context Parametric An analogous estimate that uses a mathematical formula
Leads to systematic errors bad news Easily fixed once detected hardly good news Enabler for continuous improvement in estimating processes
Sometimes known as an estimating relationship Research shows parametric models are more reliable than their creators!
Logical Model Ltd
322
Parametric Estimates
323
How long does it take to cook a chicken ?
What assumptions or facts are material to the estimate ?
How long does it take to analyse a requirement, design a galley, bore a 40mm hole through 20mm plate steel ?
Logical Model Ltd
Estimators
are not modest: if its huge they say so. Nor are they shy: if its tiny they say so
323
Analogous Estimates
324
How long does it take to cook an ostrich ?
How could we reduce our uncertainty ? How can we express our uncertainty ?
Logical Model Ltd
Estimators
do it in groups: top down and bottom up - PM Proverbs
324
Preparing resource providers to be flexible enough to start early
Probabilistic Schedules
Logical Model Ltd
325
Next: Probabilistic Schedules

326
1. What Confidence Of 5 Weeks Parallel Tasks 2. Over-Allocating Contingency Serial Task 3. Confidence In Schedules 4. Reality & Simplicity 5. Calculating Contingency 6. Showing Schedule Contingency 7. Contingency 8. Monte-Carlo Analysis 9. Programme Critical Path 10. Adding Contingency 11. Showing Cost Contingency 12. Retiring Contingency 13. Base-lining
Logical Model Ltd
326
What Confidence Of 5 Weeks Parallel Tasks

327
B=3 ML=5 W=7
Assuming even chances of each task duration then what is the probability of this project taking 3 weeks / About % 5 weeks / About % 7 weeks
/ About % There are 27 possible scenarios About 4% each
B=3 ML=5 W=7
B=3 ML=5 W=7
3,3,3 7,7,7
Logical Model Ltd
327
Over-Allocating Contingency Serial Task

328
What schedule is needed for the following (1/10 chance of the extremes)? Task 1 Best estimate 1 day (1 in 10 chance), worst 99 days (1 in 10 chance) Task 2 Best estimate 1 days, worst 99 days Task 3 Best estimate 1 days, worst 99 days
t1 t1
t2 t2
t3 t3
1/ 1/ / chance chance chance
1d+1d+1d = 3d if EVERYTHING perfectly 99d+99d+99d = 298d if EVERYTHING awful (1d+99d)/2+(1d+99d)/2+(1d+99d)/2 = 50d+50d+50d = 150d
What is your confidence that 298 be required? Right budget then? When would 150 be OK?
What would be an acceptable level of commercial risk?
Logical Model Ltd
328
Confidence In Schedules
329
Each task B=1, ML=50, W=99, E=50, =16.7 50+50+50+16+16+16 is not 80% case! (ie only 1/5*1/5*1/5 chance) Will only need 16+16+16 in the 20% * 20% * 20% of cases 20% * 20% * 20% = .8% or 1 / 125 198 is the 99.2% confidence t2 t2
SD =
t1 t1
t3 t3
SD12 + SD22 + SD32 = 27.7 329
150+28 = 80% confidence

Logical Model Ltd
Reality & Simplicity

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied 14 18
330
14
18
26
0 A 1,4,6 0
1 4 6
1 4 6
3 6 8 6 7 9 8 10 12 B 2,3,6
D 4,7,11 8 15 7 10
G 4,4,4 15 19 17 27
J 7,8,10 19 27 27 29
4 1 4 6
8 5 8 10 6 9 11 8 11 13 C 4,5,7
E 3,3,4 14 17
H 8,10,15 17 27
L 2,2,2 27 29
5 8 10 11 13 15 14 16 18 16 17 16 6 9 11 12 14 16 15 16 19 18 19 19 8 11 13 14 16 18 18 19 21 20 21 23 20
25
Project expected
4
Project sd
F I K 6,8,10 2,3,3 4,5,6 = ( e1 + e2 + e3 + e4. 19 22 9 22 27 9 17 = (sd1**2 + sd2**2 + sd3**2 + sd4**2 + )

Logical Model Ltd
330
Calculating Contingency
Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Schedule Protection 0.69 Task A B C D E F G H I J K L Best 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 6.00 4.00 8.00 2.00 7.00 4.00 2.00 ML 4.00 3.00 5.00 7.00 3.00 8.00 4.00 10.00 3.00 8.00 5.00 2.00 Worst 6.00 6.00 7.00 11.00 4.00 10.00 4.00 15.00 3.00 10.00 6.00 2.00 e 3.83 3.33 5.17 7.17 3.17 8.00 4.00 10.50 2.83 8.17 5.00 2.00 E=63.17 CP=29.5
Logical Model Ltd
331
SD 0.83 0.67 0.50 1.17 0.17 0.67
CP 1.00
Float
SD*SD 0.69 1.00 0.44 0.25 1.00 7.00 1.36 0.03 0.44 1.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.44
1.17 0.17 0.50 0.33 0.00
1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 Effort & CP protection
1.36 0.03 0.25 0.11 0.00 2.23
1.36
0.00 1.66
Length of CP & Total Effort

331
Showing Schedule Contingency

332
D 4,7,11
G 4,4,4
J 7,8,10
Pros and Cons of Pros and Cons of showing contingency showing contingency explicitly? explicitly?
A 1,4,6
B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
L 2,2,2
Contingency 1.66
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
Logical Model Ltd
K 4,5,6
332
Contingency
333
Why arent they the same?
10 week project, 10 week project, 20% chance of 2 week delay 20% chance of 2 week delay
12 week project, 12 week project, 80% chance of 2 week acceleration 80% chance of 2 week acceleration
Question to ask: what is the determinate of the 10wk vs. 12wk? Statement to make: Boss/ customer, If you were toit would be different
Logical Model Ltd
333
Monte-Carlo Analysis
334
Software tool to calculate probabilistic project duration
Logical Model Ltd
334
Programme Critical Path

335
Project critical paths contribute to programme critical path Not the whole story: often resource as important as schedule Programme critical path passes through projects where: Outcomes are inter-dependant Resource contention (skills, infrastructure, management time) Sharing of processes & decisions Linking over process or over resources often justified in the name of efficiency At the cost of effectiveness Never(?) better (unless the programme actually loses the investment) If the programme makes a return then effective but inefficient() resource usage gets to market quicker and ROI repays inefficient costs
Logical Model Ltd
335
Adding Contingency
D 4,7,11 G 4,4,4 J 7,8,10
336
L 2,2,2
A 1,4,6
B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
Contingency
Buffers protect critical chain from delays Key capability is to be ready to start early
D 4,7,11 G 4,4,4 J 7,8,10
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
K 4,5,6
Why here? Why here?

D 4,7,11 G 4,4,4 J 7,8,10 A 1,4,6 B 2,3,6 E 3,3,4 H 8,10,15 L 2,2,2 A 1,4,6 B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
L 2,2,2
Contingency
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
K 4,5,6
Contingency
C 4,5,7 F 6,8,10 I 2,3,3 K 4,5,6
D 4,7,11
G 4,4,4
J 7,8,10
A 1,4,6
B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
L 2,2,2 D 4,7,11 G 4,4,4 J 7,8,10
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
K 4,5,6
A 1,4,6
B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
L 2,2,2
Happy with this path? Happy with this path?

Logical Model Ltd
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
K 4,5,6
??
336
Showing Cost Contingency

337
3pt estimates for work yield expected cost / schedule and standard deviation Sum costs , calculate project (or phase or path standard deviation) Plot on cumulative cost curve
Tolerance?
Other Allowances & Reserve sd = (sd1**2 + sd2**2 + sd3**2 + )

e = ( e1 + e2 + e3 + e4) or staff-days or any other quantity
Time SD
Logical Model Ltd
337
Retiring Contingency
338
%age contingency used or retired by value
Baseline + Contingency used
e en w hhen we w tails w cki i g l Deetaiostraacknng D t t o tr e gget t
Fear
Worst case Budget / Hrs 50% Budget

Hope
Best case (all opportunities)

Logical Model Ltd
338
Base-lining
339
When new wave of planning is nearing completion Add risk management tasks & contingency arrangements Test by asking Do we believe the plan [is realistically achievable]? Sign-off after plan has been tested and risk has been included Two way commitment to combination of resource+approach+schedule+scope Not changed in either direction without permission from authorised person
Logical Model Ltd
339
Complexity
Logical Model Ltd
340
Next: Complexity
341
1. Complex Projects Have to Be Lead 2. Actually We Dont Know How To Manage Projects! 3. Simple vs. Complex 4. Systems 5. Stable vs. Unstable 6. Agents 7. Attractors 8. Emergence 9. Complexity
Logical Model Ltd
341
Complex Projects Have to Be Lead

342
Projects are amongst man-kind's most important endeavours Projects routinely suffer poor performance of astronomic proportions Problems stem from philosophy of a serially linked world where understanding is gained by reductionism Inherent limitation of understand the whole by knowledge of the bits Assumes workers are replaceable cogs add no local intelligence Newtonian, Adam Smith, Descartes: Modern management principals Traditional, linear, cause-and-effect project approach fails as: Projects become unpredictable as the number of interactions increases and their quality decreases Cause & effect leads to an explosion of details and feed-back loops Project Managers disregard variables that are too hard to track
Perception filters: deletion, distortion & generalisation*
Logical Model Ltd
*Noam Chomsky Transformational Grammar 1957 342
Actually We Dont Know How To Manage Projects!
343
L Why do compex projects consistently become challenged? What do Chaos and Complexity have to add to management by Reductionism and Control
Because we do not yet have the right answers to how to plan and manage projects in common use What is in common use cannot be right Nurturing and perturb Use local intelligence, parallel, distributed processing Principal based not rule based freedoms within limits
Logical Model Ltd
343
Simple vs. Complex

344
Cause & effect Planning
Deterministic Goal+Deliverables = (complete) Statement of Work
Probabilistic G+D = evolving SOW Rolling Wave or Stages Quantitative may be hard Manage & Lead Command, monitor, replan Avoided
Pattern describable SOO & Constraints. Architectures Coordinate plans
No observable pattern Statement of Outcome (SOO). Hope Not possible Hang-on & Pray monitoring impossible fun?
Measurement Control Style Control Best for
All quantitative Manage Command Implementation, Manufacture Efficient repetition
Qualitative Lead Attract & monitor, Governance Creativity, Design, R&D Novel solutions
Logical Model Ltd
Simple
Complicated
Complex
344 Chaotic
Systems
345
What is a system? Interacting parts (agents) Rule-set Inputs and outputs Boundary Open vs. closed Feedback
Logical Model Ltd
345
Stable vs. Unstable

346
Equilibrium Constant motion, Business as Usual Todays rule-set & agents as yesterday Disequilibrium Accelerating or decelerating, change, flux Todays rule-set or agents not as yesterday Linear & proportional or Non-linear, dis-proportional Adaptation Agents inter-act via their rule-sets, rule-sets over-ride and combine Self Organisation: stable or not Emergence
Stable new agent & rule-set mix
Logical Model Ltd
? r ot oornnot ? rium m ui i qquliilbbriu ee n IIn
346
Agents
347
Any decision making element of a system Interacts with adjoining agents People & process, (wo) men & machines How it interacts is its Rule-set Human rule-set has basic 3-way decision Cooperation, competition, or exit Cooperation allows for Development of team-work Sharing perceptions Synergies Non-linear dynamics
Compete also non-linear
Logical Model Ltd
347
Attractors
348
Attractors The external() influences on a system Point attractor A single point: Results in a system in equilibrium without motion Operations & BAU, simple project achieving delivery Cyclic attractor Two (or a few) points (possibly of varying properties) System in a repeating, predictable, dynamic, moving equilibrium Pattern or rhythm: Weather, Market places, A projects life-cycle Strange attractor Creates change without discernable pattern Point(s) of attraction or interactions not understood Un-repeating change, new-order of things, cant put the genie back in the bottle Disease, war, some economies at some time The complex projects behaviour
Logical Model Ltd
348
Emergence
349
Emergence Change in a systems rule-set Stable plus external force I.E attractors equals New stable
Stability may emerge over time Instability may be severe enough to destroy the system before new stability reached
Unintended consequences
Logical Model Ltd
349
Complexity
350
Complexity means agent interaction less describable If many interactions or many rule-sets or unknown or More inter-action or integration the less linear the results Chaos = if there are rules I cannot see their effects (not no rules in action) Businesses have complexity Highly integrated endeavours (project or business) more complex Lots of interaction, lots of rules and lots of unknowns Projects are especially prone to complexity, create it and use it! Dis-equilibrium = change of rule-set in one (or more) agent(s)
Integration of task and resource, over time & cost & quality/ scope
A project is a rule-set by which an organisation changes agents & rule-sets Creates emergence which is a blend of intended & unintended consequences
Consequences filtered by incentives, tolerances, controls & decision making architecture
Logical Model Ltd
350
351 Achieving return on investment requires Governance, Project planning, Tracking and escalated/ delegated decision making
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
351
Concepts in adaptive systems behaviour
Complexity: Systems And Projects
Logical Model Ltd
352
Next: Complexity: Systems And Projects

353
1. Using Complexity 2. Gauging Rate Of Change 3. Guidelines for Design of Complex Project 4. Style 5. Harness the Agents Abilities 6. Leading Complex Projects 7. Whats In It For Me
Logical Model Ltd
353
Using Complexity
354
Complexity is NOT to be avoided at all costs The Right Amount The degree of chaos is a variable to be controlled What management challenges does it create? When is more better Self-organisation & emergence are useful traits When is less better?
Logical Model Ltd
354
Gauging Rate Of Change

355
Too little & too much are both bad How do you tell if there is too much/little What are the symptoms? Chaos-Confusion/ Failures/ Stress Complacent/ Fire-fighting/ Poor Risk/ Low Energy Slack Progress
How do you change it What are the benefits & risks Energy, change, stretch, achievement, motivation Unintended consequences, lose of familiar, dislocation, fear, doubt
Logical Model Ltd
-eq q f diis-e ds eof s aus e o s a c au n ac g t iits , s q s-eq , ps de iign erable t Diis-ehellps de se tollerable n''t D q he s b to e is n s-e ng i Diis-eqge must be hang e st C ha D an ge mu C h n of-c ha te--of-c Ra te Ra
355
Guidelines for Design of Complex Projects
356
Remove the choice should we change? Replace with now change is inevitable which direction should we go? How do you herd cats?
1. Recognize when self-organization and emergence are beneficial Identify the costs and impose suitable budgets 2. Create the communications network Product (result/ outcome) focus Process (control/ governance) focus 3. Remove all rules expect the essential set Errm what are the essentials? 4. Create fertile environment for emergence
Logical Model Ltd
t rse i ours e c u of o es of c t on? y ((yes a t on?
s ) pend s does!!) end t de p it does de It I
Wh a Wh
356
, 357 hings , tttthings gh he i gh ht ttherrigs rigght o ri i i D o hi i hhpp== DDo tthnngs s rrs eade rs LLeadenageers== Do g Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Maana M
Style
Leadership is crucial, management remains a mandatory element Leadership tools are concerned with connectivity in the communications Vary the mix of leadership and management Leaders Set direction, Align people, Motivate Statement of outcome contracts Encourage adaptive behaviour Managers Plan and budget, Organize and staff, Control and solve problems Statement of Work contracts Both set limits on acceptable variation (Tolerance)
Logical Model Ltd
357
Harness the Agents Abilities

358
Projects contain multiple variables Exceeds our ability to exercise span-of-control and unity of command
Cause & effect (command & control) management of limited usefulness
Projects gather intelligent agents Give the agents some (pre-defined) level of autonomy
Commanders intent, Statement of Outcome
Make time deep instead of long

Parallel and distributed working
Principals of Complex Adaptive Systems New insights add to project management not replace it
Logical Model Ltd
358
Leading Complex Projects

359
Understanding the business success criteria No other reason for undertaking a project Honest, straight-forward communications are best Not always politically acceptable Part of project cost: when too great ensures project failure Plan back-ward from the desired end-point Plan in the team SOO intended actions Reward initiative: right attractors Learn from mistakes This projects and every prior ones Remove the choice to change Leave the choice of what is the change
Logical Model Ltd
359
Whats In It For Me
360
How do you achieve change of rule-set? Light a fire, explode a bomb-shell, be a corporate hurricane Before/ once the choice is removed now what ? Be very sure the end-point is clear to all: Vision: attractive, alluring Monitor the emergence achieved for unintended consequences Co-locate peoples thinking (if not their bodies) Remove barriers and add facilitators to free-form communication Use the agents intelligence and pull of the attractors to define how
How is the plan: return to tradition management of projects to achieve the plan
Peoples attractors Trigger change and encourage outcomes: desirable or not Governance detects and kills off undesirable consequences, accentuates the desirable
Triggering change is (may be) unpredictable +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07 the desired goal is correct leadership Logical Model LtdFocussing agent activity on Logical Model Ltd
360
Creating the communications network
Communications in The Complex Project
Logical Model Ltd
361
Next: Communications in The Complex Project

362
1. Communicating In Complex Projects 2. Quality of Connection 3. Continuum Of Project Complexity 4. The Right Comms 5. Connections not Content 6. Communications Flows
Logical Model Ltd
362
Communicating In Complex Projects

363
Essential to have a communications and decision making architecture Simple projects use spoke & hub communications The hub is a bottle-neck that stops complex projects functioning What is the purpose of an architecture Interfaces, segmentation Drawbacks? What elements do we need in a decision making architecture
Logical Model Ltd
363
Quality of Connection
364
What makes great quality programme communications? Agents who can benefit from some information know that info
Timely for decision making
Signal to noise ratio high IE Agents not swamped by extraneous info Language & culture Feed-back loops Time, care, will Speed, accuracy, completeness, integrity, availability, confidentiality Richness, serendipity, combinations
Logical Model Ltd
364
Continuum Of Project Complexity

365
Potentially increasing number of connections
Complex
Required Cnxtn Poor & Missing
Centralised (spoke & hub) comms NOT possible
Inc. quality of Conxtn
Poor Cnxtn
Centralised comms hard: Possible if important enough
Complicated
Many conections working quiet well Few connections or Interconnects work very well
Simple Small
Communications are mapped & routed centrally
Big
Logical Model Ltd
Global
365
The Right Comms

366
Communications is key: in detail that means Flexible and open useful to know not need to know Collaboration not control, Guiding principals not rules, Support not dictation, Circular, parallel and cross-linked not serial and filtered Ironically good free-form communications must be well planned to be achieved Planning great communications Who communicates What information do they need or might use What information can they supply When do they get it How do they get it, format How often do they get it, repetition
Logical Model Ltd
366
Connections not Content

367
Creates the pipe-work to connect speakers and listeners Leave those who are connected free to determine the content Design information is different from control information Both are needed The edge of chaos is not an excuse to remove good controls Recognition that control is not enough on its own Control comes 2nd (after there is something to be controlled)
What pipes are required What is their content?
Logical Model Ltd
367
Mission
& Values
Communications Flows
How: Strategy How: Strategy Escalate decisions outside authority Report, Seek Guidance
368
Why Why What Vision What Vision
Cascade intent & constraints Delegated Authorities & Tolerances (freedoms)
Business Business Design (Modus Design (Modus Operandi) Operandi)
What Strategy What Strategy
Programme Design Programme Design (Architectures) (Architectures)
How: Goals How: Goals
What Goal What Goal
Project Design (Planning) Project Design (Planning)
How: Tasks How: Tasks
What Tasks What Tasks
Technical Solution Design Technical Solution Design and execution and execution
Logical Model Ltd
Impacts Impacts
368
Measuring Complexity
Logical Model Ltd
369
Next: Measuring Complexity

370
1. Defining and Measuring Complexity 2. Simons Manageability Index 3. To Quantify Complexity 4. When 5. Adjust The System
Logical Model Ltd
370
Defining and Measuring Complexity

371
Complexity can be qualified (quantified?) A relative measure Allows formulation of actions to change complexity
Complexity can increase or decrease It is useful to be able to manage the complexity
First step to building a measurement tool Isolating the drivers of complexity Measure the interactions and their quality
Many interactions, poor qualityhigher complexity Few interactions, great qualitylower complexity
Consequences of communications Speed of communications vs. speed of rule-set change
Logical Model Ltd
371
Simons Manageability Index

372
Purpose Purpose Goals Goals Resources Resources Schedule Schedule Technology Technology Process Process Resources Resources Organisation Organisation Customer Customer Decisions Decisions Decision making Decision making Team Team
0 0 Clear Clear Stable Stable Adequate Adequate Flexible Flexible Familiar Familiar Well known Well known Dedicated Dedicated Project Project One One Swift Swift In Team In Team Collocated Collocated
10 10 UnClear UnClear Changing Changing Scarce Scarce inFlexible inFlexible Unfamiliar Unfamiliar Un Tried Un Tried Shared Shared Matrix Matrix Many Many Slow Slow Out with Team Out with Team Distributed Distributed TOTAL TOTAL
Score Score _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ ______ ______
Logical Model Ltd
372
To Quantify Complexity
373
Collect data about potential & existing: Agents Inter-connections Factors that increase, decrease, enhance, block, diminish, amplify, muffle, distort, corrupt, speed, slow, combine or in any other wise affect interconnections Number of, timeliness of, completeness of (understanding), %age relevant etc
Logical Model Ltd
373
When
374
At predicted (scheduled) points: milestone Project or subproject selection Vendor or contractor selection Start of each phase including closeout Periodically when no other trigger
Research Extend Infrastructure Product

O pe
Research Build Infrastructure Build product
ra
tio
Research
st ab ilit y Deploy to business
na l
Build product Research Build product Deploy to business Train people
Product
Train
O pe
Cutover
ra tio na l
st ab
Cutover op
ilit
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
At (predicted?) un-scheduled points: Events Any step in the life-cycle of any risk occurrences Re-planning Stakeholder changes
Logical Model Ltd
374
Adjust The System

375
If too much chaos then create order (delivery to plan) Work to plan Impose processes and formalize decision making Reduce information flows Reduce discretion If too little inspiration create chaos (designing solutions) Encourage circulation of problems, information and expertise Remind people of the What not the How Provide a challenge to be overcome Provide rewards for self-organization and emergence Governance Tolerance, freedoms, authorities, limits
Logical Model Ltd
375
Business, Programme & Project Adding, linking and deleting projects in the programme
Control Of Change
Logical Model Ltd
376
Next: Control Of Change

377
1. The Only Constant Is Change 2. Change Management 3. Programme Change Management 4. Nature Of Change 5. Process 6. Request For Change Contents
Logical Model Ltd
377
The Only Constant Is Change

378
Projects & programmes must adapt as the world changes or they are useless Uncontrolled change is a project killer In commercial circles contract = fixed costs, change = profit Control of change is difficult, expensive, unwelcome, vital Change is ANYTIME we are different from the baseline WHATEVER the cause Change is assessed for impact on the baselines Impact analysis IS planning & should be conducted the same way Resource & schedule impacts need 2ndry & tertiary interdependencies verified CM is not MoC: Management of change is process by which programme deliverables are introduced into the line Part of communications
Logical Model Ltd
378
Change Management
379
Key is to match significance to the architectures Decision architecture says HOW to decide/ WHOSE authority decides fate of a change Co-ordinate change approval across all project managers Technical architecture establishes interfaces to limit the spreading ripples from change Changes to interfaces need all providers / receivers aware of change
Establish Interfaces Control Groups for major interfaces Interface owner is receiver when multiple senders, sender when broadcasting
Logical Model Ltd
379
Programme Change Management

380
Tool for incorporating evolving needs into the project set Projects cancelled or initiated Products (features) delivered, added or dropped When programme budget is a capped amount change control is about rationing within resources already allocated
Project change management generally adds budget (or releases reserve) into the project
Possible new baseline is assess for stakeholders revised utility (benefit vs. cost assessment of before & after change scenario) WIIFM now? Affect on designs thus complexity & controls & plans & thus management The ROI, the schedule, the total spend, impacts as seen by each stakeholder Impacts on contracts, staff (business and programme)
Logical Model Ltd
380
Nature Of Change
381
Baseline is the Originally approved scope plus or minus approved changes The customer can have what they are prepared to pay for I want more, for free is unrealistic and unprofessional I need the project to deliver to new CSFs, what are the consequences? is mature and real-world Triggers of change ?
Customer Funded
Specftn errors
WIBNI
Supplier Funded
Exectn errors
How about if we
Mandatory Discretionary
Logical Model Ltd
381
Process
382
Change control is minor() planning on what if basis Applied to programme, project or team plan
ID [&Sanity filter]
Assess Impact (What if) Just planning
Decide Value vs. Costs & Write-off
Do (plan) Reject Defer Escalate
Close
Record details
Record details
Inform stakeholders
Logical Model Ltd
382
Request For Change Contents

Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied ID, date, person raising, and contact details Description of change requested Justification, reason and benefits (i.e. business case impact) Impact of not action-ing change Timescale or other drivers and constraints Items affected Impact description (BENEFITS & Risk, scope & quality, schedule, costs, reputation) Impacts/ Products & Interfaces/ Outcomes plus Work-Packages/ Projects Resource impacts, Control and Project Management affects Linked RAID records Decision making Relevant authority Decision made, date Appeal status Action log Actions taken, plans revised, items changed Implementation state Sign-offs (All impacted parties task and product interest, Originator) Closure details
383
RFC RF oe Doe Cddoe n Doe ' ssha ssntth a ve hav t ' hav e toc veett b o o o e ve cov r o befo eraal rma l llth form l, e theba al, bas s se es
RAID Ltd Risks,57Assumptions, Issues & Dependencies = +44 (0) 845 2 57 07 Logical Model
Logical Model Ltd
383
There are other free sources of our value-add on our web-site www.logicalmodel.net
384
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
384
Governance Is Plan + Status = Steering Decision
Logical Model Ltd
385
Next: Governance Is Plan + Status = Steering Decision
386
1. What Is Governance 2. Internal Control 3. COSO Effective Internal Controls 4. Two Models For Assessing Control 5. KPIs & KGIs
Logical Model Ltd
386
What Is Governance
387
2.5 governance is the system by which [companies] are directed and controlled. [Boards of] directors. responsibilities include setting the strategic aims, providing the leadership to put them into effect, supervising the management of the [business] subject to laws, regulations and the shareholders The Cadbury Report 1992
holding the balance between economic and social goals and between individual and communal goals. The [corporate] governance framework is there to encourage the efficient use of resources and equally to require accountability for the stewardship of those resources. The aim is to align as nearly as possible the interests of individuals, corporations and society" Sir Adrian Cadbury in 'Global Corporate Governance Forum', World Bank, 2000
Logical Model Ltd
387
Internal Control
388
Internal control is a process, effected by an entitys board of directors, management and other personnel, designed to provide reasonable assurance regarding the achievement of objectives in the following categories: Effectiveness and efficiency of operations Reliability of financial reporting Compliance with applicable laws and regulations Key Concepts Internal control is a process. It is a means to an end, not an end in itself. Internal control is effected by people. Its not merely policy manuals and forms, but people at every level of an organization. Internal control can be expected to provide only reasonable assurance, not absolute assurance, to an entitys management and board. Internal control is geared to the achievement of objectives in one or more separate but overlapping categories.
The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission
Logical Model Ltd
388
COSO Effective Internal Controls

389
The COSO reports five interrelated components for effective internal controls: 1. Control environment. The tone set by managements style & philosophy. For example in assigning authority and responsibility; and the level of oversight provided by the board of directors. Factors include integrity and competence, ethical values and are a reference point for interpretation of controls Risk assessment. Risk from all sources is identified, and analysed for probability & impact on the achievement of a objectives as a basis for selecting management responses. Procedures should address the dynamics of the companies situation. Control activities. The policies and procedures that ensure managements responses to risks to objectives that are present at all levels of the operation are implemented. Controls cover authorising, verifying, and segregating duties, reconciling & reviews security and performance. Information and communication. Information is identified, captured and communicated to enable staff to carry out their responsibilities. Systems deal with a 2 way, 360 degree flows of internally generated data, & external events or conditions for sound decision-making & reporting. All participants understand their role in the internal control system, and its relationship to the work of others. Monitoring Control systems are monitored to assess the systems performance via ongoing management and supervisory activities & separate evaluations whose scope and frequency depend on external regulations, internal standards & their effectiveness and assessment of risks. Deficiencies in internal control are reported.
Logical Model Ltd
2.
3.
4.
5.
389
Two Models For Assessing Control

390
Plan Strategic Tactical Administrative
Do
Check Report Report
Correct Asset Valuation Vulnerability Assessment

Logical Model Ltd
Threat Assessment Risk Assessment Action Plan
Counter Measures Control Evaluation Residual 390 Risk
See CobiT Process PO9 Assess Risk
KPIs & KGIs

391
Key Goal Indicators Lagging indicator* Measures performance versus target or goal Measures that tell managementafter the factwhether a process has achieved its business requirements Key Performance Indicators Leading indicator Measures enablers of the process or goal Measures how well the process is performing in enabling the goal Measures of how well a process is performing EG: Service delivery goal is 100% availability between 8am and 8pm Actual achievement is 96% due to incident number 12345 EG Continuous service delivery is enabled by testing all changes before installation Number of tests per implemented change was 17 this month up from 12
CobiT 3rd Edition Audit Guidelines July 2000. p.6 & Management Guidelines p.17
Note: This is the opposite way around from Kaplan & Nortons The Balanced Scorecard
Logical Model Ltd
391
Current Plan As Selected Route Across The Landscape
Logical Model Ltd
392
Next: Current Plan As Selected Route Across The Landscape
393
1. Planning Draws The Map 2. What Happens In Execution? 3. Execution & Delivery 3 Distinct Themes 4. Tests For A Current Plan
Logical Model Ltd
393
Planning Draws The Map

394
Route across the map changes as needs Route across the map changes as needs dictate dictate
Logical Model Ltd
394
What Happens In Execution?

395
Carrying out the work by the team Project execution, Project & Programme control Measuring progress versus plan by the PM Handling variations Change the route to the goal Project? Programme (Delivery Manager)? Programme Sponsor / Director ? Execution is constant re-planning Hopefully on a the micro level
Logical Model Ltd
395
Execution & Delivery 3 Distinct Themes
396
Handling Issues, RFC
Escalating Issues & reporting status
Planning for exceptions or next stage
All OK? (Ac Wh
Update Project Plan

case
Execution & Delivery

Minor Adjustts PMs daily monitor & review
Review Business Case & Risk Log
Clo
Ask Permission to Continue
Authorise, track & receive completed work Do the work

Logical Model Ltd

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2Solution 57 57 07 Solution Outline Spec
Build
Test
Implement 396
Tests For A Current Plan

397
As the real world changes so must real world plans Plans must be current to be useful! What does a plan contain, how do I know it is current? The objective, the means of control, ALL who does what & when details
Tests are: The team know the contents All un-started tasks have a start date in the future Progress on critical tasks (schedule, cost or resource) is within tolerance
Progress on all tasks is within tolerance
Resource assignments over the short term are specific and practical
Medium & long term resourcing maybe generic but is still practical
External dependencies are reconfirmed with all parties
Logical Model Ltd
397
Gantt charts, milestones and variances
Tracking And Reporting Progress
Logical Model Ltd
398
Next: Tracking And Reporting Progress

399
1. Assessing Status: The PMs Day-job 2. Appropriate Reactions To Status 3. Gathering Status Data 4. Progress Report Template 5. Gathering Tracking Data 6. Financial Tracking 7. Problem Visibility 8. When To Respond
9. When To Re-plan 10. Contingency in Schedule 11. Contingency in Action 12. Minimum Measurement 13. Good Metrics 14. BRAGGing 15. Escalations 16. Escalation 17. Handling Escalations
Logical Model Ltd
399
Assessing Status: The PMs Day-job

400
Results achieved means products* (from PBS) produced Certainty of achievement comes from the quality control activities Hours spent/ resources consumed mostly useless Useful to verify or correct estimating models if combined with results achieved Otherwise only of interest to accountants and historians Tasks performed (is not achievement, but) Used to congratulate team members, generate morale and demonstrate momentum Key question What is to go?
Logical Model Ltd
* Outcome/ Impact/ Results 400
Appropriate Reactions To Status

401
Confirm results (from quality records) are to schedule Check resource projections match available resource pool Add to relevant agendas as early as mismatch is suspected Use status data, quality control and audit results to plot best course forward Note hot-spots for further scrutiny and support
Share learnings, coach and mentor weakest performers
Each day is a chance to set a better course (or a worse one) Spread best practice and eradicate weakest processes Take maximum advantage of windfalls Natural tendency is for losses to accumulate & gains to dissipate Apply effort to reverse the trend
Logical Model Ltd
401
Gathering Status Data

402
Impact/ Outcome focus
Sponsor
Highlight Report
Traffic Lights Graphs & Trend Lines Gantt & EVM Compiled tables & reports
Product focus
Project Project Progress Project Progress Monitoring

Checkpoint Checkpoint Report Checkpoint Report Report
Only Only measures measures of of any any merit merit are are those those
Progress Monitoring Monitoring Checkpoint Checkpoint Report Checkpoint Report Report
DIRECTLY DIRECTLY
related related to to the the
Activity focus
Raw data Quality, Time & Resources
DELIVERABLES DELIVERABLES
402
Logical Model Ltd
Progress Report Template

403
Items for escalation and management support Items for escalation and management support Items not carried out to plan Items not carried out to plan Current status and progress achieved Current status and progress achieved Activity planned for next period Activity planned for next period
Items for escalation and management Items for escalation and management support support Items not carried out (within float/ tolerance) Items not carried out (within float/ tolerance) Current status and progress achieved Current status and progress achieved Activity planned for next period Activity planned for next period
Logical Model Ltd
403
Gathering Tracking Data

404
Progress reports must be based on quality control records Timesheets required for time recording/ resource costings
Record by team and roll-up in plans
Gather ETC: what we assess as of today is still to spend Estimate To Complete is not (original budget minus cost to date) Always re-estimate based on last 4 weeks actuals* Financial Records Invoices received (or generated), salary bill, cross-charges Often a lag while invoices pass through accounts payable or receivable If costing is critical then institute a this months data process with-in the programme Use Finances Management Accounts plus this months to determine week by week status
Compare past month actuals to plan for a multiplier to apply to next month EG CPI & SPI 404
Logical Model Ltd
Financial Tracking
405
3 budget axis OBS: manpower needed by function PBS: Cost to produce a product (or outcome) CBS: How it is shown in the accounts General ledger codes (CBS) generally able to roll-up costs in a variety of ways Draft a finance person into the programme during initiation If possible rotate them every few months (Ambassadors of the programme) Matrix organisations need matching accounting structures Departmental budget should covers day-to-day department cost Costs (income) attributed to the programme should be broken down Not unusual for organisations to treat salary as central charge allocated pro-rata or not applied to programme
Organisation Breakdown Structure, Cost BS, Product BS405
Logical Model Ltd
Problem Visibility
406
Programme manager and PMO (internal) Look for trends in and across programmes projects Identify systematic and ad-hoc variations Be prepared to express problem to business: Know the facts Programme problems often widely visible: youll get stopped in a corridor and Have a recommendation/proposed action (or two) prepared if possible Never say (or practice) Dont bring me problems without solutions Encourage early exposure of problems: solutions are a bonus Be clear about when a problem (in tolerance) becomes an issue (out of tolerance) IE RAG turns from Amber to Red
Logical Model Ltd
406
When To Respond
407
When project progress reports show: Problems common across projects Possible impact to programme critical success factors Project manager Has an issue Asks for help Reports inconsistently with previous reports or other projects Is unaware of programme wide repercussions of actions Any time perception of the programme is damaged Stakeholder management Perceptions do not have to be true or fair to cause damage (Politics)
Logical Model Ltd
407
When To Re-plan
408
Every day: little & often Based on monitoring of external & internal context (Communications Plan) Re-plan may be due to Sponsor demand/ Change of objective Supplier failures/ Alternative solution Change to any constraint outside of delegated authority (Tolerances) External dependencies dictate Risk event invokes Plan B
Project Management LifeCycle Project Management LifeCycle Execution && Execution Control Control Tracking Tracking Quality Quality Control Control
Acceptance Acceptance
Clo Clo
RePlanning RePlanning Quality Assurance Quality Assurance
When predictable that the plan will not meet any CSF Team morale is rock-bottom: Death march projects
Logical Model Ltd
408
Contingency in Schedule
409
Plan A
Phase
Task Task Task Task Phase Task Task Task Phase Task Task Task
Best case delivery date
Plans B
Contingency 1
Task Task Task Task Contingency 2 Task Task Task
Worst case delivery date
Logical Model Ltd
409
Contingency in Action
410
Plan A
Phase
Task Task Task Task Phase Task Task Task Phase Task Task Task
Old Best case delivery date
New Best case
Plans B
Contingency 1
Task Task Task Task Contingency 2 Task Task Task
Worst case delivery date
Logical Model Ltd
410
Minimum Measurement
411
Gathering progress information is a cost Only gather where you will use the information Challenge and remove metrics with poor value Use = a decisions is based on the data now or in the future Precise & timely enough to make decisions while options still exist
The minimum but no less: excess data, speed or precision is wasteful
Meaningful comparison to goals & plans for variance analysis Highlights gains and losses, preferably when still threat & opportunity Support What if speculation to formulate new plans EG EVAs Cost Performance Index predicts Estimate At Completion from Budget At Completion minus Earned Value EAC = (AC +(BAC-EV)/CPI)
Logical Model Ltd
411
Good Metrics
412
Cheap to collect By-product of the work itself Eg: Confirmation of deliverable passing QC equals milestone achieved or Number of tests still to run, fix back-log Gather metrics that can be Automated Assessed objectively Independently assessed by several people if subjective (AKA a Review) Allow anyone and encourage everyone to challenge metrics Treat metrics as guilty of being irrelevant unless proven innocent (useful)
Logical Model Ltd
412
BRAGGing
413
Blue Red Amber Green Grey (B)RAGG for focus areas A tool to draw attention to areas needing deeper study Programme assigns status to key indicators Blue: Done Red: Area reporting lacks either insight to design a solution or authority to execute next management level up must resolve Amber: Area reporting are focussed on containing a situation that has potential to go red Green: Area reporting operating entirely within tolerance with no anticipation of amber status Grey: Not yet applicable (eliminates Green where inappropriate*) Data underlying RAG required for diagnosis Set objective criteria based on tolerance levels to select RAG May vary by product, project, stage of project etc
Logical Model Ltd
10 Green and 1 Red looks very different from 1 Red 1 Green and 8 Grey
413
Escalations
414
Problem: an off-plan state* within limits of authority to address without escalation Should be notified upward
Issue: off plan state that is outside authority limits to address
Early warning: raising a threat or opportunity to a management level before they are required to act
* Either has happened without warning or warning signs suggest is going to be a fact414
Logical Model Ltd
Escalation
415
Dont escalate (or allow escalation) through status reporting Status report documents what was already escalated in person Only escalate issues (IE beyond my authority to resolve) Flag-up risks while managing them: avoid bolt from the blue issues Flag-up amber risks* & problems with recommendations where possible Never delay threat, opportunity or failure to search for an answer Summarise the issue briefly, state the decision required and timescales Make fair representation of competing view-points
Bring other interested parties along with you if useful to them (and you!) Pre-agree a solution for ratification if possible
Have the facts to hand to provide complete expansion on any aspect
Logical Model Ltd
Opportunity or threat 415
Handling Escalations
416
Address escalated issues immediately Take or empower actions Relax a constraint Escalate further Address escalated risks as dictated by their expected value All risk responses should be in Plan A or Plan B
Plan A includes preventative and probability focussed measures Plan B includes contingent, impact mitigations
All threats add to programme costs & schedule

Triggered threats require implementation of Plan B (or C or D)
Sponsor owns the whole set of impacts and all impact choices
Logical Model Ltd
416
Agenda, purposes and conduct Attendees and their obligations
Steering Committees
Logical Model Ltd
417
Next: Steering Committees

418
1. Steering Meetings 2. Control Flows 3. Reporting Cycles
Logical Model Ltd
418
Steering Meetings
419
Communication between project, programme and directorate Is the business vision still as it was last time Are products still right to achieve the vision Are the benefits still safe What is the current status of strategic risk and serious tactical risk Are there any programme issues Include agenda items for Current status against plan Items for escalation or on the radar Risks acceptance vs. response Change to any of the key drivers in the programmes context
Logical Model Ltd
419
Control Flows
Scope, Cost & Benefits
420
Senior Business Strategy

Strategy & Cross Business Issues
Management Project Board

Highlight Report Scope & Budget R&I Escalation
tracking
Programme Plan Functional Project Plan Goals &

Deliverables Functional Goals & Deliverables Goals Schedule Assignments Schedule Goals & Financial Goals Assignments & Financial Goals Quality Goals Quality Goals
Requirements & Testing Approval
Business Coordination (Heads of Function)

Direction
Direction
Issues
Checkpoint ETCs Risks
Requirements & Testing Activity
Operational and
Logical Model Ltd
Supervisory Staff
Subcontractor
420
Reporting Cycles
Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
421
Steering Committee & Business Strategy
Consideration of meeting pack Background actions re Decisions Required.
Monthly Steering Meeting

Tracked Progress & (re)Scheduling Change Risks
Consideration of Major issues. Raising of strategy issues.
Prepare for Steering Meeting, publish meeting pack

Project Manager & Business CoOrdination
Minute & publish Steering Committee
Cascade Steering Committee results to team
Weekly Project Meeting: Current Status, Required re-planning for Issues, Actions re Risks. Up-Coming milestones. Apply report of work done to plan. Apply ETCs to plan. Move all dates that have past expected forward. Assess and protect Critical Path status. Direct staff to up-coming tasks Report on work done, both scheduled & unscheduled. Report ETCs, report risks to milestone dates & issues. Estimate impact of requested changes, review intra and inter project deliverables
Logical Model Ltd
Team
421
Keeping things on track
Measurement Analysis And Correction
Logical Model Ltd
422
Next: Measurement Analysis And Correction

423
Analysing Measurements Recognising Value Earned
Logical Model Ltd
423
Analysing Measurements
424
Compare plan vs. actuals Variance = Plan Actual %V = Variance / Plan Response to variances Significant? Systematic? Capitalise on advances Amend the scope, the cost, the tasks, the schedule, the resources, the risks, the
Logical Model Ltd
424
Recognising Value Earned

425
Activity is not achievement Knowing achievement is the pay-off from quality and acceptance planning
Cumulative baselined expenditure
BAC
Actual expenditure to date
d nishe iinished ef f e hav e hav We W
Status? Status?
Logical Model Ltd
425
Reporting and forecasting with earned value and its cousins
Where Are We, Where Will We Be?
Logical Model Ltd
426
Next: Where Are We, Where Will We Be?

427
1. Recognising Progress 2. Ways of Recognising Value 3. Simple Project 4. Budget at Completion Planned Value 5. Graphing EV Data 6. Taking Stock 7. The Colleagues 8. Taking Stock 9. Graphing EV Data
1. EAC Realism 2. EVM Formulae 3. EV Types in MSP 4. PV Based on Earning Curve 5. BCWS Based on Cost Curve 6. CPI/ SPI Chart 7. EV and Change Control 8. Milestone Status - Slip Chart 9. Milestone Accomplishments
Logical Model Ltd
427
Recognising Progress
428
True measure of progress achieved is often hard Hardest for tasks with intellectual content Tasks that are objectively measurable can use %Complete 999 bricks laid out of 1000 Otherwise If it isn't finished weve made no progress is safest Compromise: milestone based capping Pre-Design review = Maximum claimable is 15% Pre-Development review = Maximum claimable is 45% Pre-Integration review = Maximum claimable is 65% Pre-System test = Maximum claimable is 75% Pre-User acceptance demonstration = 90%
Logical Model Ltd
428
Ways of Recognising Value

429
Recognising earned value is easy when the task is complete Judging value earned from incomplete tasks is troublesome Scope verification activities in product description are key enabler Quality control records are key status data Use and appropriate EV type Introduces timing variances in EV
0% 50 20
100 100% in one period 50 50% per two periods 80 Pro-rata Only at milestone 100% % with limits at milestones
20% 10 40
60% 50
Passage of time (Level of effort) Any of above Apportioned
Review points
Logical Model Ltd
429
Simple Project
430
You are working on the venues work-stream in this years Edinburgh fringe programme You're task is to engage 100 venues for assignment to artists Your project manager has given you 10 weeks to get them signed up You must visit each one, write & get printed a description to allow performers to match their needs to venue size/ price/ free slots You have a budget of 100 per venue to cover the visit plus drafting and printing its description Three hundred are needed in total Your colleagues also have 100 each to hire in the next 10 weeks
Logical Model Ltd
430
Budget at Completion Planned Value

BAC Planned Value (PMB)
431
10k 9k 8k 7k 6k 5k 4k 3k 2k 1k
Weeks
0 1 2 3 4 5
Logical Model Ltd
10
431
Graphing EV Data
432
10k BAC 9k 8k 500 7k 6k 5k 4k 3k 2k 1k 0 1 2 3 4 Achieved Venues (Earned Value) 5 6 7 8

Logical Model Ltd
1k
Under achieve
Overspend
Planned Value (PMB)
Spent ! Actual Cost
Week 1 Week 1 Venues planned: 10 Venues planned: 10 Costs: 800 Costs: 800 Venues achieved: 6 Venues achieved: 6
Weeks
9 10
432
Taking Stock
433
How far off target are you? Achieved (Earned) 6 but planned 10, Variance = 4 behind time
EV PV = SV 600 1,000 = -400 EV AC = CV 600 800 = -200 Negative variances are Negative variances still bad
Achieved 6 at cost allowed for 8 = 200 over budget What is your efficiency ? Done 6 but scheduled 10, so only 60% of expectation
EV / PV = SPI 600 / 1,000 = 60% EV / AC = CPI 600 / 800 = 75% Less than 100% is
Achieved 6 at cost of 8 so 75% efficient or 33% over budget Where will we end-up? What is to be done / efficiency = 10wks / 60% = 16.6 weeks What is to be done / efficiency = 10k / 75% = 133k
Logical Model Ltd
433
The Colleagues
434
How about your colleagues? They have managed Done 12 so EV = ______ and spent 900 so AC = ____
EV PV = SV EV AC = CV EV / PV = SPI EV / AC = CPI EV PV = SV EV AC = CV EV / PV = SPI EV / AC = CPI / / / / = = = = = = = =
Done 8 so the EV = _____ and Spent 800 in the process so AC = ____
Logical Model Ltd
434
Taking Stock
435
Week 5 Achieved (Earned) = 40 venues (4k), Planned = 50, Cost = 6k

SV = EV PV CV = EV AC SPI = EV / PV CPI = EV / AC 4k 5k 4k 6k 4k / 5k 4k / 6k = -1k = -2k = 80% = 66%
Have variances been systematic or one-off ? If one-off Estimate at Completion (EAC) (Original efficiency factor) = 6k + 60 venues or 6k to go = 12k If systematic EAC = 6k + 6k / 0.67 = 6k + 9K 15k
Historic empirical cost efficiency factor
Or worst case EAC (Compound historic factors) Logical Model Ltd17.25k 2 57 57 07 +44 (0) 845
= 6k + 6k / (0.8 * 0.67) = 6k + 6k/.533 = 6k + 11.25k
Logical Model Ltd
435
Graphing EV Data
436
k
17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
Week 5 PV: 50 venues = 5k AC: 6k EV: 40 venues = 4k Remaining 60 venues

BCWS Curve (PMB) BAC
EAC CS EAC CPI EAC (PM declared) VAC
AC curve SV
CV EV curve
Weeks
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
6
Logical Model Ltd
436
EAC Realism
437
EAC-CPI and EAC-CS have been shown to indicate probably range for cost at completion* Range of If more than 15% of project completed Forecast
Unlikely to improve beyond BAC / EAC-CPI Unlikely to be worse than EAC-CS
EACs Project Managers EAC BAC
At 20% completed
How well do we have to do to finish on budget? To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) = Work left / Budget left
Achieved (Earned) = 40 venues (4k), Planned = 50, Cost = 6k Planned Achieved = 100 40 = 60 or 6k 6k work = 150% compared to Planned Cost = 10k 6k = 4k 4k budget current CPI of 66%
*Nearly a 1000 projects run by US DOD over several decade 437
Logical Model Ltd
EVM Formulae
438
Cost Variance (CV) Cost Variance (CV) Cost Performance Index (CPI) Cost Performance Index (CPI) Cost Variance% (CV%) Cost Variance% (CV%) Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) Schedule Variance% (SV%) Schedule Variance% (SV%) Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining (BCWR) Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining (BCWR) Budget remaining (BR) Budget remaining (BR) Estimate to Complete-CPI (ETC-CPI) Estimate to Complete-CPI (ETC-CPI) Estimate to Complete-CS (ETC-CS) Estimate to Complete-CS (ETC-CS) Estimate at Completion (one-off variance) Estimate at Completion (one-off variance) To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Estimate at Completion-CPI EAC-CPI Estimate at Completion-CPI EAC-CPI (Systematic) (Systematic) Estimate at Completion-CPI EAC-CS Estimate at Completion-CPI EAC-CS (Systematic & pessimistic) (Systematic & pessimistic) Variance at Completion VAC Variance at Completion VAC
= EV -- AC = EV AC = EV // AC = EV AC = CV // EV = CV EV = EV -- PV = EV PV = EV // PV = EV PV = SV // PV = SV PV = BAC EV = BAC EV = BAC AC = BAC AC = BCWR // CPI = BCWR CPI = BCWR // (CPI * SPI) = BCWR (CPI * SPI) = AC + BCWR = AC + BCWR = BCWR // BR = BCWR BR = AC + ETC-CPI = AC + ETC-CPI = AC + ETC-CS = AC + ETC-CS = BAC EAC* either 1-off, CPI or CS or others are in use = BAC EAC* either 1-off, CPI or CS or others are in use
Logical Model Ltd
438
EV Types in MSP
439
Logical Model Ltd
439
Problem with EV Types

440
Imagine the following simple project Task 1 BCWS 1k payable per week back-loaded EV Type 50-50, Duration 4 Weeks Graph the BCWS and BCWP and ACWP assuming everything runs to plan Conclusions? Money
4k 3k 2k 1k 0k Time
Wk-1 Wk-2 Wk-3 Wk-4

Logical Model Ltd
440
CPI/ SPI Chart

446
Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

CPI > 1, SPI < 1 Under spent and late CPI > 1, SPI > 1 Under spent and early
Cost Performance Index (CPI)

CPI < 1, SPI < 1 Over spent and late
1
CPI < 1, SPI > 1 Over spent and early
Logical Model Ltd
446
EV and Change Control

447
2nd Change
TIME NOW
CONTRACT CHANGE
CONTRACT TARGET COST
CONTRACT CHANGE
Baseline
CONTRACT COMPLETION DATE
1st Change
Time
Logical Model Ltd
447
Milestone Status - Slip Chart

Dec 05
448
Milestone delivery date (slippage)
Nov 05 Oct 05 Sep 05 Aug 05 Jul 05 Jun 05 May 05 Apr 05 Mar 05 Feb 05 Jan 05 Dec 04 Nov 04 Oct 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Feb 05 Apr 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Sep 04 Nov 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Mar 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05
Key
Event A Event B Event C Event D Event E Current reporting period
Reporting period
Logical Model Ltd
448
Milestone Accomplishments
449
50 40 30 20 10 0
Previous prelim. design found to be suitable Bad weather
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Logical Model Ltd
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
449
To implement EV the key factor is understanding how to judge done or percent complete: LML can help
450
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
450
The corporate and the personal learning cycle
Logical Model Ltd
451
Next: Learning From Experience

452
1. Learning From Experience 2. More Than I Can Say 3. Knowledge Cycle 4. Tacit & Explicit Knowledge 5. When (Sh/C)ould You ? 6. When LL Techniques Are Applied 7. Learning 8. The LfE Business Case 9. Applying The Courses Messages 10. Programme End-point Is BAU
Logical Model Ltd
452

453
What is Lessons Learned (LL)/ Learning from Experience? Seeing something right or wrong Making it more or less likely to be repeated Process for cycling explicit knowledge to implicit (tacit) Codifying, testing and refinement of how we do it here LL is the conscious transfer of good practices between people in the organisation Using the transfer process to meet the goal of improved performance Blame storms are common & wrong A lessons learned review meeting with the wrong idea about what LL is actually all about
Logical Model Ltd
453
More Than I Can Say

454
Tell me how to ride a bicycle
Not falling off a bicycle r~v2/a To compensate for a given angle of imbalance (a), we must take a curve, radius (r), on the side of the imbalance, proportional to the square of the velocity (v) over the imbalance
Logical Model Ltd
454
Knowledge Cycle
455
Pr ac Be tic st es
To Tacit
Fluency: learning on the job Fluency: learning on the job through socialising e.g. Sit with through socialising e.g. Sit with Mary" & practicing Mary" & practicing
Explicit
Externalisation: essential & most Externalisation: essential & most difficult e.g. creating a procedure, difficult e.g. creating a procedure, defining a job role, giving a defining a job role, giving a presentation presentation
From Explicit
Tacit
Internalisation: building new Internalisation: building new observations e.g. by discussing & observations e.g. by discussing & exercising the capability exercising the capability
Logical Model Ltd
Combining: adding to what IIknow Combining: adding to what know to fill a need e.g. by training to fill a need e.g. by training
The value of education is not learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think something that cannot be learned from textbooks - Einstein.
455
Tacit & Explicit Knowledge

456
Tacit (Implicit ) Riding a bicycle & securing a corporate decision Accountancy and C++ !
Explicit Accountancy or C++ Project management (defined processes) Anything proceduralised Methodologies Securing a corporate decision
Lacks vocabulary & models Cannot be passed on

Logical Model Ltd
Codified for transmission Has jargon or formal language Cannot be used from the book
456
When (Sh/C)ould You ?

457
Effective LL is not bolted-on to projects It is integral process : Learning as we experience So when do you do it ? Are there right or best times ? Ad-hoc, event driven When youve something important to share, Eg a discovery is made When starting something important (phase and project starts) When a product is finished (phase ends and project ends) Frequently, regularly, routinely Monthly or quarterly PM community meetings What about:- at weekly team or monthly steering meetings?
Logical Model Ltd
457
Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning - Einstein
When LL Techniques Are Applied

458
Executing
Create new experiences
Planning Activity Initiating Controlling Closing
Use the Lessons Learned

Time
Logical Model Ltd
Analyse the experiences
458
Learning
459
Creating new knowledge through lessons learnt Requires time and opportunity Observing what happened Reflecting on it Drawing conclusions Producing learnable lessons Consolidate to future practice Watch tacit knowledge in action Translate to explicit Merge / transform current explicit Convey explicit Translate to implicit
Different learning styles suit different personalities Make contributions in different parts of the learning cycle
Logical Model Ltd
459
The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education - Einstein
The LfE Business Case

460
LfE benefits: Mitigate decision risk Broader repertoire of response to contexts and environment
Efficiency with the familiar and lower risk with the unfamiliar Transformation of the unfamiliar to the familiar
Day-to-day make the right and avoid the wrong decisions Costs Shift of focus: tacit understanding of benefits from reflection & sharing Sponsorship, time, communications infrastructure Loss of personal leverage for the intuitive high performers Rewarding those who try will encourage more Success is not guaranteed but on average it is more common than failure Dont reward inaction, Dont reward the guilty
Logical Model Ltd
460
Applying The Courses Messages

461
To ourselves, our bosses, peers, customers and reports What will you do? How? When?
Logical Model Ltd
461
Applying the Courses Messages

462
Without personal disequilibrium No change, no gain, no pain I expect (hope) that you think you understood what you perceived I might have said, but Im also sure you realise that what you heard may not have been what I did say. Plus what I said may not have been what I meant while it may still result in you having understood what you needed to have gained from listening. What do you think? Your real learning will come from Reflecting, Conceptualising & Experimenting
Logical Model Ltd
462
Applying the Courses Messages

463
Action plan Define your vision, goals & outcomes, programme & projects Draw-up a list of course based outcomes that are attractive to your group Everything you need to do is in the course materials
Feelings? Optimistic?, Excited about/ depressed by?
Logical Model Ltd
463
Programme End-point Is BAU

464
Recognising programme end When is the end of what youve started What is BAU after the course ?
Logical Model Ltd
464
There are other free sources of our value-add on our web-site www.logicalmodel.net
465
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd
465

Program and Complex Project Management - Free

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Program and Complex Project Management - Free

Uploaded by

Copyright:

In the beginning was THE PLAN. And then came The Assumptions.

Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D, P2

Logical Model Ltd 2010

By Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D & PRINCE2 regd

Programmes and Complex Projects

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Inspired by Who Moved My Cheese by Dr Spenser Johnson an excellent 45 minute read

Logical Model Ltd

Who Are We All?

Name, Role and Organisation: Telling others about yourself

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Change Managers* Assessment Card

Passes water in emergencies

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

3 Types of Slide The core message: Places where we dwell

2 Types of session (mostly alternate) Input: explanation of tools and techniques

Use: exploration of meaning

1 Conversation: All contribute and give each other space

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Chapter Notes & Actions to Implement 12

The Courses Purpose

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Route-Map: Programmes and Complex Projects

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Change is Aimed at Business As Usual

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Next: Change is Aimed at Business As Usual

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Learning From Experience

Arriving at Business As Usual

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Corporate Development Model

Increasing Maturity Increasing Maturity

Improved Performance Improved Performance

Plans reflect reality Plans reflect reality

Improving the Organisations Ability

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Improving The Individuals Capability

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Focus shapes responsibilities in execution of change

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Next: Sponsors Focus

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Context Business Context

Benefits are Uncertain

Logical Model Ltd +44 (0) 845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd

Risk Seeking V. Risk Avoiding

Seeking Size of Risk

Take the sure thing worth 100

Take the Value at Risk potential to be 200 but may be 0