SPE - 122510- PP A risk-based approach for well integrity management over long term in a CO2 geological storage project

Y. Le Guen, V. Meyer, O. Poupard, E. Houdu, and R. Chammas, Oxand S.A.

Copyright 2009, Society of Petroleum Engineers This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2009 SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition held in Jakarta, Indonesia, 46 August 2009. This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessar ily reflect any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohi bited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of SPE copyright.

Abstract Carbon Capture and Storage, as a solution to mitigate the increase in greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, is still bringing intensive worldwide R&D activities. In particular, significant acceleration of in situ CCS experiments supports technical developments as well as acceptability of this technology. Among the major risks identified to this technology, wells are often considered to be the weakest spots with respect to CO2 confinement in the geological reservoir. Therefore, longterm well integrity performance assessment is one of the critical steps that must be addressed before large scale CCS technology deployment is accepted as a safe solution to reduce CO2 emissions. A risk-based methodology associated with well integrity is proposed within CO 2 geological storage. The main objectives of this approach are to identify and quantify risks associated with CO2 leakages along wells over time (from tens to thousands of years), to evaluate risks and to propose relevant actions to reduce unacceptable risks. The methodological framework emphasized the use of the risk concept as a relevant criterion to (i) evaluate the overall performance of well confinement with respect to different stakes, (ii) include different levels of uncertainty associated to the studied system, and (iii) provide a reliable decision making support. For the quantification of risk, a coupled CO2 flow model (gas flow and degradation processes) was used to identify possible leakage pathways along the wellbore and quantify possible CO 2 leakage towards sensitive targets (surface, fresh water, any aquifers) for different scenarios. This approach offers an operational response to some of the challenges inherent to well integrity management over well lifecycle. This paper focuses on the application of the methodology to a synthetic case based on an existing well. The practical outcomes and the added values will be presented: (i) an objective and structured process, (ii) scenarios identification and quantification of CO2 migration along the wellbore for each scenario, (iii) risk mapping, (iv) and operational action plans for risk treatment of well integrity.
Keywords: CO2 geological storage, well integrity, well degradation, Performance and Risks, risk analysis, mitigation, CO2 flow modeling

1. Introduction Nowadays, peoples concerns about greenhouse gases emissions are growing. Both authorities and industrials are thinking about solutions to reduce their emissions in order to respect the convention signed in Kyoto. The CCS technology constitutes one of the most suitable technologies to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere. Even though Carbon Capture and Storage is still bringing intensive worldwide R&D activities, a significant acceleration of in situ CCS experiments is observed to reach an industrial level [1]. Pilots already exist worldwide: StatoilHydro is operating the Sleipner site (Norway) [2] by injecting CO2 in Utsira formation (saline aquifer) since 1996, a consortium between BP, StatoilHydro and Sonatrach is

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injecting CO2 on the industrial site of In Salah in Algeria [3], and Encana is injecting CO2 in Weyburn field [4] (Saskatchewan, Canada) to produce oil by EOR. These pilots are the most well-known existing ones, but a lot of feasibility studies or ongoing projects have reached enough technical maturity to start a pilot phase. However, a large scale deployment can be questioned for some of them. Among various issues, public fear, environmental impacts, economical aspects with respect to CO2 geo-sequestration and possible gas leakages still constitute major issues. Wellbores constitute the only intrusive and man-made element of the storage system in the geologic systems. Moreover the wellbore integrity assessment implies a number of specificities, due to the time scales involved, to the properties of the stored fluid and to uncertainties characterising the physical parameters and mechanisms. Demonstrating that the wellbore constitutes a safe barrier for CO2 confinement over long term is of a paramount importance for large CCS acceptance and deployment. This paper presents a quantitative risk-based methodology to evaluate the performance and the risks associated with well integrity [58] on long term, taking into account the degradations and ageing of the wells components coupled to porous media flow occurring in a well. A statistical approach is integrated to the methodology in order to deal with the uncertainties associated to the well characteristics and the models input. In order to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate its relevance to provide operators with operational recommendations, a synthetic case study is proposed. 2. Performance and Risks (P&RTM) methodology 2.1. Methodology workflow The present methodology has been developed in accordance with a risk-based process. Here, risk is not just a concept but also a metric which can be quantified. Risk can be defined as the combination of the likelihood of a failure event, i.e. its probability and the magnitude of its impact, i.e. its severity. The uncertainties of the system are converted into the notion of probability and the quantitative CO 2 leakage mass assessed into the notion of severity. The methodology gathers different steps to go through for risk quantification and for recommending risk mitigation actions to ensure the well integrity performance (Figure 1). A brief description of the main steps are presented below (for more details, see [6]) After data collection and interpretation, a functional analysis (i.e. identifying the functions of each of the system components and their associated failure modes that could impact the system integrity) and a static model of the well are performed. This model takes into account information about the well itself (geometrical and integrity parameters) and the near wellbore environment (geology) necessary for limit and boundary conditions. Uncertainties about well components integrity (cement quality interpreted from CBL measures, casings integrity assessed from corrosion logs interpretation, missing information) are assessed and interpreted in terms of ranges of values distributed according to probabilistic laws. Then, a dynamic model is built by combining degradations phenomena and associated kinetics to the static model. Such kinetics come from the mechanical and chemical interactions between geological formations, the different fluids (brines, CO2) and the well components (cement, casing steel). The lack of knowledge on exact in situ conditions and long term effects are considered by studying the impact of these parameters on the CO2 migration along the wellbore (i.e. taking into account a range of values) through a sensitivity study. Boundary conditions (hydrostatic and reservoir pressure, temperature, flow/no flow conditions ) are based on well geological environment.

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Figure 1: Methodology workflow

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A scenario approach is then introduced to account for uncertain parameters. To build a scenario, system parameters are set to a given value within defined ranges. Therefore, each scenario corresponds to a possible state of the system. The probability of the scenario depends on the probability of each parameter to be equal to the selected values.. Then, all identified and relevant scenarios are simulated in order to quantify the CO 2 migration along the wellbore over a time period. The key outputs for each scenario are: (i) the CO2 mass leakage towards a sensitive zone (surface, aquifer(s)) vs. time and (ii) the associated CO2 leakage pathways along the wellbore. CO2 mass that escapes out reservoir along the wellbore is then converted into a severity level by assessing the impacts vs. a set of specific stakes relevant to the project (health, safety, performance of the confinement, financial). This connection is ensured by using a consequence grid initially defined with the stakeholders involved in the CO2 storage project. The consequence grid enables to link the results of simulations to severity levels via the criteria defined by the stakeholders. By crossing both severity and probability of each scenario, a risk level can be estimated. Once all risk levels are quantified, they populate a risk matrix. In parallel, the definition of a Risk Acceptance Limit (RAL) by the project manager brings forward the unacceptable risks and corresponding scenarios. Associated with the functional analysis of the system and results of simulations, the contributors to the unacceptable risks (i.e. risk sources) can be identified. From that, operational recommendations can be formulated to treat these contributors and thus to reduce the risk levels to an acceptable threshold for the storage project. 3. Well ageing and leakage modelling The CO2 leakage quantification constitutes one of the main steps within the methodology. The model is governed by a darcian 2 phase-flow model coupled to a mass balance where both phases are considered immiscible. The relative permeability values are assessed from the Mualem and Van Genuchten models in function of phases saturations, capillary pressure and empirical parameters [7]. Initially the cement is considered fully saturated by water. Fluids saturations can be followed thanks to this model; this enables to follow CO2 flow up in the borehole. A coupling with degradation processes is performed in the model: Cement could be degraded in harsh environments due to mechanical/chemical effects. Cement based materials are reactive porous media, when exposed to acidic environment, some dissolution/precipitation processes can occur and lead to mechanical and transport properties modifications. Leaching kinetics mainly depend on the environment and the initial chemical composition of cement-based materials. Such processes have already been studied, see [9 - 14] for example. Casing corrosion can occur by both uniform corrosion and pitting corrosion depending on in-situ conditions and fluids compositions. Physico-chemical phenomena are described in literature, [15 - 21] for example. Other mechcanims can modify well components properties with time and impact will integrity: thermo-mechanical effects that lead to the formation of micro-annuli at the interface of cement with casings and geology, dry-out that lead to cement fracturing The models parameters values can be calibrated through experimental tests including accelerated testings, time-lapse well integrity monitoring measurements, modelling 4. Definition of a synthetic case study In order to illustrate the applicability of the methodology proposed in this article, a synthetic case study has been developed based on an existing well. 4.1. Context A plugged and abandoned well that could be found on a depleted Oil&Gas field onshore is represented (Figure 2). The studied well is supposed to be located in an area reached by a CO2 plume at 400 bars at the top of the reservoir (bottom of the well). An overview of the characteristics of the geology is described on Figure 2. The depleted reservoir rock is located at a depth of 2100 m. It is overlayed by a cap rock formation with a low permeability therefore forming an effective barrier to fluid migration in the overburden. The aggressiveness of the formation directly overlying the cap-rock (Cretaceous green layer) has been considered aggressive due to a presence of a saline aquifer. A freshwater aquifer is located at a depth of 150 m that must not be polluted by CO2. This aquifer is the only geological formation considered hydraulically connected to the wellbore, i.e. CO2 can only escape from the borehole into this aquifer. The well completion configuration is also described in Figure 2. The well is cased with 6 cemented casings and plugged with 4 cement plugs located as indicated on Figure 2.

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Hole diameter 30" 22" 17" 1/2 12" 1/4 8" 1/2 6" 1/4

Depth (m) 50 500 800 1000 2000 2200

Casings 26" 18" 5/8 13" 3/8 9" 5/8 7" 5"

Depth (m) 48 498 798 998 1998 2150

Cement location (m) 0 - 50 0- 500 0 - 800 825 - 1000 850 - 2000 1980 - 2200

Cement plugs depth (m) 0 - 100 150 - 250 600 - 900 2000 - 2200

Figure 2: Studied well schematic representation

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Assumptions for initial and boundary conditions are as follow: Initial pressure profile along the wellbore: hydrostatic pressure; Cement sheath and cement plugs are considered fully saturated by water at the initial step; CO2 reservoir pressure is 400 bar, assumed to be constant over the 1000 years of modeling No flow conditions between cement sheaths and geologic layer except for freshwater aquifer which present a permeability of 100 mD. Each geological layer has constant properties. Geothermal temperature gradient of 3C/100 m depth. 4.2. Wells modelling 4.2.1. Well zoning A 2D axisymetric description of the well is used. To be solved, the model is segmented by a process accounting for (1) well components geometry, (2) variation of parameters values within a component and (3) geological layers that lead to different boundary conditions on system components. Segmentation is based on collected data over the lifecycle of the well (drilling, work-overs, production, abandonment ) (Figure 3). Characteristics of the wells components and of well environment are assessed thanks to a qualitative interpretation of the available data (Figure 3). Vertical and horizontal permeability values of the cement materials are assessed with a range of uncertainty. This assessment comes from the interpretation of data such as CBL (Cement Bond Logs), TT (Transit time) or USIT (Ultrasonic scanner) providing data on the cement quality and the presence of micro-annuli which are interpretated in terms of permeability values for cement sheaths and plugs.

Zones 1 2 3 4 5 6

Quality Medium Good Bad Unknown Unknown Excellent - Plugs

Permeability values Kv = 10 to 1000 mD Kh = 1 mD Kv = 0,01 to 10 mD Kh = 0,01 mD Kv = 500 to 1000 mD Kh = 1 mD Kv = 500 to 5000 mD Kh = 1 mD Kv = 500 to 5000 mD Kh = 1 mD Kv = 0,001 to 0,01 mD Kh = 0,001 mD

Geological layers Quaternary Tertiary Aquifer Cretaceous Caprock Reservoir

CO2

Leaching rate (mm/year0,5) 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 to 1 0,1 0,1 1 to 5

Corrosion rate (mm/year) Pitting Uniform 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 to 1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0 to 0,3 0,1

Figure 3: Static modelling of the abandoned well considered

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4.2.2. Degradation phenomena Degradation kinetics can be assessed (Figure 3), based on fluids samples analyses, geological reports or available data in the literature especially lab experiments but also in-situ measurements. By extrapolating these data to field conditions, degradation kinetics for casing corrosion and cement leaching/carbonation towards different fluids (CO 2 , formation fluids) can be proposed to be well specific within a level of certainty (Figure 3). 4.2.3. Failure scenarios construction & selection Uncertainties associated with model parameters could lead to a huge number of possible combinations. All of these possible well integrity states could be assimilated to possible scenarios enabling potential CO 2 migration along the wellbore. In order to reduce this large number of scenarios, a design of experiments approach has been used. This methodology enables to sort out key parameters on the systems response from a limited number of simulations.. Design of experiments provides major trends in terms of parameters influence on system response (Figure 4).
Kv2

Parameters or combinations of parameters

Kv3*PC (CO2) KV2*LR (CO2-Z2) Kv1 Kv2*Kv1 LR (CO2-Z2)*Kv1

Kv2*PC (CO2)

Kv3

Kv5

Kv4

Kv6

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

Parameters influence on system answer

Figure 4: Results of the design of experiments approach

The main results of the DoE applied on the case study highlight that the following parameters are the most influencing: Cement zones called 1, 2and 3 (Figure 3) Leaching/carbonation kinetics associated with CO2 in front of cement zone 2 Pitting corrosion due to CO2 The other parameters have a lower impact on system response than those previously listed. The insignificant ones will be considered as deterministic for the next steps. Once the parameters of significant influence are identified, each range of values associated to these parameters is divided in fractiles according to distribution laws and each of them is therefore defined with several values with a probability. The combination of the different possible well integrity states, finally leads to 1296 possible failure scenarios to simulate for this case study. 4.3. CO2 migration simulations for failure scenarios Each relevant scenario has been simulated in order to estimate the possible CO 2 leakages along the wellbore. The main outputs illustrated below are CO2 leakage mass vs. time and CO2 front propagation within the well to identify possible leakage pathways. Figure 5 show the distribution of the CO 2 leakage mass estimated to escape from the wellbore into the connected aquifer after 1000 years for all scenarios.

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500 450 400

Number of scenarios

350
300

250 200 150 100 50

0

< 0,1

<1

<2

<5

< 10

< 20

< 30

> 30

CO2 leakage amount in the aquifer (Tons)

Figure 5: Scenarios distribution according to CO2 migration amount into the aquifer (in tons after 1000 years)

4.3.1. Water saturation/ CO2 front propagation Figure 6 illustrates four snapshots showing the water saturation of wells components over time (respectively 250, 500, 850 and 1000 years) for one scenario and the associated leakage curve. This scenario corresponds to the pessimistic estimation in terms of well components integrity (i.e. the highest values of permeability for the cement sheaths).

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0

CO2 leakage amount in the aquifer (ton)

200

400

600 Time (years)

800

1000

1200

Figure 6: Water saturation evolution for the well at 250 years, at 500 years, 850 years and 1000 years and associated leakage curve into the aquifer in vs. time

For the CO2 flow simulation associated with this specific scenario, two main CO2 migration pathways can be identified: one where the CO2 flows up through the cement annuli, and another where the CO2 goes up through the inner part of the 7 casing by means of a casing breakthrough (due to pitting corrosion). This competition between the two possible CO2 migration pathways highlights the complexity of the CO2 flow up along the wellbore over time. The behaviour of the well

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components towards CO2 and the other aggressive fluids (i.e. formations fluids) can drastically change the migration pathway over timescale. The difference of hydraulic charge between the CO2 propagation front and the surface leads the CO2 flow up in function of the barriers met. For this configuration, we can observe that the CO2 upward gas flow is faster through the cement annuli than through the inner 7 casing. This is due to the fact that pressure conditions within the 7 casing can act as a barrier for CO2 migration. Figure 7 proposes the results for a second scenario. For this scenario, cementation of the 7 annulus is considered better compared to the first scenario presented. Simulations performed for this specific scenario show that CO2 flows up through the inner part of the well and not along cement annuli. In this specific configuration, pressure conditions in the inner part of 7 casing and in the 7 annuli are modified in comparison to the previous scenario leading to another preferential migration pathway by the inside of the 7 casing.

Figure 7: Water saturation within well system for different times (respectively 500, 600 and 1000 years)

In conclusion, it is not obvious to assess which pathway the CO 2 could take when flowing up through the wellbore to a target (i.e. surface and/or connected aquifers); uncertainties of specific parameters can have a strong influence on the pathway. 4.3.2. Risk assessment & risk mapping The criticality level (i.e. risk metric) has been estimated for each scenario. The risks dedicated to the 1296 scenarios are populated in the risk matrix after 1000 year simulations. The probability of a scenario occuring is given on the vertical axis and its severity (in function of a CO2 leakage over given period vs. stakes involved in a CCS project) on the horizontal axis. These levels are assessed according to 2 grids (Figure 8) representing the operator perception in terms of frequency (frequency grid) and severity (consequences grid).
Stakes 1: Minor Environment Economical Reputation CO2 injection strategy CO2 storage performance goals Loss 0,05 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years Loss 0,1 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years Loss 0,25 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years Loss 0,5 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years Loss 1 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years Loss > 1 % of injected CO2 over 1000 years

Severity levels

2: Low 3: Serious 4: Major 5: Critical 6: Extreme

Frequency level 1 2 3 4 5 6

Probability
0,00001 0,0001 0,001 0,01 0,1 1

Figure 8: Consequences grid (left) and Frequency grid (right)

Once the risk matrix is populated, unacceptable well integrity scenarios can be identified from the Risk Acceptance Limit (RAL) defined with project managers involved in the project. Figure 9 presents a possible RAL (line in black). Severities higher than 5 and criticality values (frequency level + severity level) higher than 8 are not considered acceptable.

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Frequencies

64

22

50

368

16

48

127

104

489

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 4

0 5

0 6

Severities

Figure 9: Population of the 1296 scenarios in the risk matrix dedicated to well integrity (after 1000 years)

In this case study, 561 secenarios present a unacceptable risk level, criticality of all these scenarios has to be reduced. Looking closer at the scenarios over the RAL, risk sources can be identified from the functional analysis and the possible CO2 leakage pathways obtained from numerical simulations. This analysis shows that the most important common failure mode to the scenarios in orange is the 7 casing breakthrough because of corrosion in front of the geological layer overlaying the reservoir leading to a major preferential pathway per the inner part of the well compared to the second pathways identified through the 7 cement annulus. Relevant mitigation actions can then be proposed. Four types of mitigation actions are usually possible to reduce risk level: Characterization/Inspection, to clarify some uncertainties of the system, Design solutions, in order to decrease the occurrence of a well integrity failure which would generate a leakage, Operational solutions, to avoid unwanted consequences, Monitoring solutions, to detect and anticipate the occurrence of a leakage and to manage unwanted consequences if leakage occures. To mitigate the non acceptable risks, the first 2 remediation options could be proposed to act on risk sources: A better characterization of the formation fluids in front of the cap-rock and the well component degradations associated could reduce the severity levels of given scenarios where the 7 cement sheath pathway. An optimized abandonment design could mitigate the risks associated to all the scenarios. Re-entering a P&A well is a delicate and expensive operation, but feasible. Figure 10 represents an example of this optimized abandonment design that could be proposed. It consists in : o Reentering the well (existing plugs drilling) o Milling of the 7 casing o Plugging of the well in front of Cretaceous geological formation layer o Re-abandonment of the well

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11

Figure 10: Example of a worked-over well (right) compared to the initial well (left)

4.3.3. Risk assessment update The risk assessment has been updated by considering this optimized well configuration, and new simulations have been performed. Figure 11 illustrates the new CO2 escape pathway along the wellbore for one specific scenario after 1000 years for the proposed plugging design. This result is characteristic of the other scenarios. CO 2 can migrate along the 5 casing annulus and is then blocked due to the cement plug presence. No leakage towards the freshwater aquifer is observed over 1000 years clearly showing that the design option reduces the risks associated with well integrity.

Frequencies

144

1152

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 4

0 5

0 6

Severities

Figure 11: water saturation obtained after 1000 years simulation

Figure 12 represents an update of the initial risk mapping considering the modified plugging strategy. The criticality of the representative scenarios has been reduced to a lower level (below the acceptance threshold level).

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Frequencies

144

1152

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 4

0 5

0 6

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Figure 12: risks assessment update

5. Conclusions A risk-based approach was adopted to predict risks associated with CO 2 leakage along the wellbore from a plugged and abandoned well in contact with a CO2 plume. From this approach, quantitative risks associated with well integrity (i.e. CO 2 escape out of reservoir along the wellbore) were assessed and operational recommendations for mitigating non acceptable risks were formulated. For the case study, static and dynamic models were built, and 1296 scenarios based on the relevant parameters of the well model were simulated. From the resulting risk mapping, some non acceptable risks were identified. The main risk sources were: (i) the cement quality of the 5 casing annuli (ii) the possible corrosion process which occur on wells components in front of geological layer just above the cap-rock. This identification enabled the formulation of relevant elements to reduce critical risks. A change in the abandonment design was proposed. From this new well configuration, the methodology was updated. Main results highlighted that this new abandonment configuration enabled the mitigation of risks to an acceptable threshold. Such a risk-based methodology constitutes a robust and reliable approach for a long term well integrity performance management. Risk-based approaches present an important growth in practice because of their ability to easily formulate recommendations considering owner stakes. This paper tends to prove the importance of physical models on practical industrial applications. The functional interactions between the components are too complex to be assessed intuitively as illustrated by the possible CO2 leakage pathways and the efficiency of the re-abandonment solution proposed. Models offer a great opportunity to risk managers to anticipate their risks, to engage operational actions to manage the performance of their structures (assessment and mitigation), and to demonstrate the safety of the structure over long term. Quantification of mechanisms including uncertainties, ageing processes and their impact on the function of a technical system, allows an accurate assessment of the best strategies to design high performance structures or to manage the performance of existing structures. The proposed recommendations enable to provide justified elements as asupport in decision making.

Acknowledgment We acknowledge Schlumberger Carbon Services for the fruitful discussions about well integrity.

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