Application of a multivariate autoregressive model to generate inflow scenarios using ensemble climate forecast

W. Cossich, O.C. Rotunno Filho (Department of Civil Engineering - COPPE/ UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; wcossich@lamma.ufrj.br) M. Cataldi (Department of Agriculture Engineering and Environmental Studies UFF, Niteri, Brazil)
Water resources play an essential role in the energy matrix of Brazil, where hydroelectric power corresponds to more than 90%. In addition, the integrated Brazilian hydroelectric planning and programming for electricity generation and transmission works based on a strong relationship between reservoir water storages and the corresponding reservoir inflows. Therefore reservoir operational management requires an evaluation of risk analysis concerning present water stocks, future water inflows and non-compliance to fulfill water target demands. The broad objective of this work is propose a methodological approach for inflow forecasting into 2-months horizon through the use of two different stochastic autoregressive models, considering past inflows information jointly with climate information. Inflow scenarios were generated for the Grande River watershed using firstly a univariate autoregressive model, which considers only past inflows, and then a multivariate autoregressive model, which takes into account also climate indices and ensemble seasonal climate forecasts of precipitation derived from the ECHAM 4.5 Model. The results indicate that the univariate model was able to capture the inflow seasonal pattern, however this type of modeling approach failed to reproduce other types of variability. On the other hand, the performance of the multivariate model was much better when compared to the univariate model, both in relation to ensemble averaging and with respect to threshold values, highlighting still the possibility of capturing inflow intraseasonal variability. Requested presentation format: Please place X before the format you prefer. It may not be possible to satisfy all format requests. The language of the conference is English. X __ Oral presentation requested Poster presentation requested

Core theme: Put an X before the VAMOS Core Theme that your abstract addresses. __ __ __ Simulating, Understanding and Predicting the Diurnal Cycle Predicting the Pan-American Monsoon Onset, Mature and Demise Stages Modeling and Predicting SST Variability in the Pan-American Seas

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Improving the Prediction of Droughts and Floods Understanding and Predicting Extreme Events in the VAMOS Region Contributions of VAMOS Research to Climate Change Assessments