SPEED DECAY AT CRUISE

18th AIRBUS SAFETY CONFERENCE - BERLIN

A330 SPEED DECAY EVENT

BOM to AMS FL380 over NW IRAN Clear skies at dawn with a thin undercast Airspeed 260 to 197 knots gradually Autothrust ON / Autopilot maintained altitude Maximum available thrust did not stop decay Pilots received no warnings or messages Pilots took over and flew manually Descent to FL 340 and continued to AMS

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CREW INFORMATION
Captain on rest break Right seat FO (Pilot Flying) Left seat FO Pilot In Command (Pilot Monitoring) Crew noticed speed at 240 knots Autothrust commanded climb thrust Speed continued to decrease

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CREW FEEDBACK
Assessed situation understanding 1. Normal law and flight protections 2. A330 will not stall in Normal law 3. Alpha Protection would limit AOA below stall Unsure why speed decay occurred

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RECOVERY
Crew disconnected AP at 198 knots and descent to FL360 initially, then FL340 Once they reached normal speed at FL340 the flight was routine There was more thrust available at the lower altitude

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UPON ARRIVAL AMS

Investigation begins Maintenance inspects aircraft Flight data sent to Airbus and P&W Performance Engineering, Tech OPS, Safety analyze FOQA data Maintenance inspection results in no engine or aircraft malfunction Potential atmospheric anomaly

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ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
Proper altitude for weight and OAT At FL380 for 21 minutes Temperature increased slowly about 3 degrees (tropopause entry) Horizontal wind change
Performance increasing wind created a high speed and low thrust state Decreasing performance wind slowed the aircraft

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FLIGHT DATA Blank

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THERE MUST BE MORE TO IT

The horizontal wind was manageable Autothrust soft mode may have contributed, but was not the cause There was some indication of a vertical wind component When pitch exceeds AOA during level flight this indicates a downdraft

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TOULOUSE MEETING
Airbus calculated the vertical wind with performance modeling It averaged 1000 fpm over four minutes Why did it last so long Delta meteorology theory Perpendicular gravity wave encounter in the tropopause

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GRAVITY WAVE THEORY

Gravity waves are generated in the troposphere by frontal systems or by airflow over mountains The amplitude increases in the tropopause Picture a surfer under a curl for a sustained period due to a perpendicular direction of travel vs. the wave

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SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND

Current weather forecasting tools cannot model or predict New FOQA algorithm for vertical wind
Pitch > AOA in level flight = downdraft

FOQA study shows this vertical wind occurs on this route over Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan in the winter/spring months Winter/Spring months have higher seasonal winds Winter/Spring trop heights are lower than Summer/Fall

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WAVE CLOUDS

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LIKE EVENT STUDY

All fleets checked for below Vls speed at cruise
1.4 million flights This was only event

About a dozen flights had lost significant airspeed and some had to descend
AT soft speed mode saves 1% on fuel, but will cause a slight delay (up to 30 seconds) in reaching full CLB thrust on A330

Checking 5 years of A330 flights showed about 2 per year went below green dot at cruise altitude
Most of these where in moderate or greater turbulence Not as insidious as our subject event

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AMS-BOM-AMS 39 Events (Nov-May)

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CONCLUSIONS
This rare downdraft exceeded aircraft performance (All fleets) Perpendicular direction High winds over terrain Tropopause height No low speed warning exists at high altitude High altitude speed awareness is key Severe downdrafts Windshear Airspeed dropouts

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NEXT STEPS
Support industry change for a low speed warning on new aircraft
Current A330 design has a low energy warning below 2,000ft AGL

Assist meteorology to develop a model to predict and avoid gravity wave Pilot training to manage this rare threat

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DOWNDRAFT STUDY RESULTS

Most were over IRAN 80 knots plus wind Upwind high terrain Only NOV-MAY over 3 year look back Why only NOV-MAY? Other times of year the tropopause altitude is above our normal cruising altitudes Winter jet streams average twice the velocity of summer jet streams Avoidance strategies Flying below the tropopause, stay below the wave FL340 max altitude will provide extra climb performance Other events near mountainous regions and even oceanic areas

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PILOT EDUCATION
Rare Upper Air Downdrafts can cause; Insidious speed decay even with full thrust applied The Autopilot simply trades airspeed for altitude This downdraft lasted 4 minutes Below green dot drag increases faster than lift Descent to recover airspeed is only option High thrust descent preferred - Not OPEN Descent Proper recognition and recovery is key It all starts with monitoring your speed at cruise

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QUESTIONS?

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